Trip distribution

The production and attraction from and to each TAZ is listed as below.
Table 1. Assumed production and attraction of each TAZ

TAZ
ORIGIN
DESTINATION
1
4600
4700
2
4400
5600
3
4200
6500
4
5400
5200
5
5800
6200
6
7400
3600
Then we estimate the intra-zonal as well as inter-zonal trips.
J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
2200
2400
2500
1850
1200
1300

J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
1900
2400
2800
1800
1400
1200

J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
1100
2300
2500
1800
2200
1800

J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
1800
1200
2200
1600
1100
1500

J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
2000
1100
2900
2200
1600
1400

J
1
2
3
4
5
6

J
2400
3100
3400
2200
1800
2500

Now we estimate cost matrix. The table below shows the final cost matrix
Cij

1
2
3
4
5
6

1.35
1.82
2.46
3.32
4.48
6.05

1.82
1.35
2.46
3.32
4.48
6.05

2.46
1.57
1.82
2.46
3.32
4.48

3.32
1.82
1.82
1.35
2.46
3.32

4.48
2.46
1.82
1.82
1.35
3.32

6.05
3.32
2.46
2.46
1.82
1.35

Next we compute Ai using gravity model by making Bj = 1 for each TAZ.

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

2200
2400
2500
1800
1200
1300

0.55
0.30
0.16
0.09
0.05
0.03

BD
1210
720
400
162
60
39

BD

Ai=1/BD

2581

3.87104

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

1800
1200
2200
1600
1100
1500

0.30
0.55
0.41
0.30
0.16
0.09

BD
540
660
902
480
176
135

BD

Ai=1/BD

2893

3.46104

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

1900
2400
2800
1800
1400
1200

0.16
0.16
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.16

BD
304
384
840
540
420
192

BD

Ai=1/BD

2680

3.73104

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

2000
1100
2900
2200
1600
1400

0.09
0.09
0.16
0.56
0.30
0.16

BD
180
99
478.5
1232
480
231

BD

Ai=1/BD

2700.5

3.70104

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

1100
2300
2000
1800
2200
1800

0.05
0.05
0.09
0.17
0.55
0.30

BD
55
115
180
306
1210
541.8

BD

Ai=1/BD

2407.8

4.15104

j
1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1
1
1
1
1

2400
3100
3400
2200
1800
2500

0.027
0.027
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.58

BD
72
83.7
170
198
162
1450

BD

Ai=1/BD

2135.7

4.65104

Next we compute Bj using gravity model by using Ai calculated from the previous
tables for each TAZ.
I
1
2
3
4
5
6

2200
1800
1900
2000
1100
2400

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.55
0.3
0.16
0.09
0.05
0.03

0.47
0.19
0.10
0.07
0.02
0.03

Bj=1/

0.88

1.14

I
1
2
3
4
5
6

2400
1200
2400
1100
2300
3100

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.30
0.55
0.41
0.30
0.16
0.09

0.28
0.23
0.33
0.12
0.15
0.13

Bj=1/

1.39

0.72

I
1
2
3
4
5
6

2500
2200
2800
2900
1200
3400

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.16
0.16
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.16

0.15
0.12
0.28
0.32
0.15
0.25

Bj=1/

1.28

0.78

O/D
1
2
3
4
5
6
D

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

I
1
2
3
4
5
6

1800
1600
1800
2200
1800
2200

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.09
0.09
0.16
0.56
0.30
0.16

0.063
0.049
0.109
0.436
0.224
0.169

Bj=1/

1.072

0.933

I
1
2
3
4
5
6

1200
1100
1400
1600
2200
1800

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.05
0.05
0.09
0.17
0.55
0.30

0.023
0.019
0.047
0.101
0.502
0.253

Bj=1/

1.944

1.05

I
1
2
3
4
5
6

1300
1500
1200
1400
1800
2500

(104 )
3.87
3.46
3.37
3.7
4.15
4.68

0.027
0.027
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.58

0.013
0.014
0.020
0.047
0.067
0.679

Bj=1/

0.84

1.19

Then we calculated O/D matrix.

1
1174.4
383.4
245.6
151.85
225.24
82.87
2263.46
4700

2
481.49
197.3
247.5
29.01
142.25
87.43
1184.98
5600

3
301.9
535.55
614.1
218.44
116.53
113.94
1900.46
6500

4
104.9
247.13
337.17
149.89
112.78
56.87
1008.74
5200

Then we calculate balancing factor for origin.

4600/2115.6=2.174
4400/1516.95=2.900
4200/1776.97=2.364
5400/716.06=7.541
5800/930.61=6.232
7400/478.17=15.476

5
29.57
70.30
230.30
89.51
189.81
42.98
652.47
6200

6
23.34
83.30
102.30
77.66
144.0
93.98
524.58
3600

O
2115.6
1516.98
1776.97
716.06
930.61
478.17

4600
4400
4200
5400
5800
7400


O/D
1
2
3
4
5
6
D

Then we calculate the revised O/D matrix.

1

2553.146 1046.578 656.331 228.053 64.285

50.741
1111.860 572.17 1553.095 716.677 203.87
241.57
580.598
585.09 1451.732 797.069 544.429 241.837
1145.101 218.764 1647.256 1130.32 674.995 585.634
1403.696 892.734 726.215 702.845 1182.89 897.408
1284.044 1353.067 1763.335 880.12 665.158 1454.43
8078.445 4668.403 7797.964 4455.08 3335.63 3471.625
4700
5600
6500
5200
6200
3600

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Then we calculate balancing factor for destination.

4700/8078.455=0.582
5600/4668.403=1.199
6500/7797.964=0.834
5200/4455.084=1.167
6200/3335.633=1.859
3600/3471.625=1.037

Then we revise the O/D matrix.

4599.133
4399.242
4200.755
5402.07
5805.803
7400.159

4600
4400
4200
5400
5800
7400

O/D

1
2
3
4
5

1485.930
647.106
337.908
666.449
816.951

1254.847
686.032
701.523
244.797
1070.388

547.380
1295.281
1210.744
1373.812
605.663

266.138
836.362
930.179
1319.08
820.231

119.50
378.99
1012.09
1254.82
2199.01

52.618
250.508
250.785
607.302
930.612

3726.42
4094.28
4443.24
5466.26
6442.85

4600
4400
4200
5400
5800

6
D

747.314
4701.658
4700

1622.327
5579.914
5600

1470.621
6503.501
6500

1027.10
5199.09
5200

1236.53
6200.94
6200

1508.25
3600.07
3600

7612.14

7400

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Then we calculate balancing factor for origin for the second iteration.
4600/3726.419=1.234
4400/4094.283=1.075
4200/4443.235=0.945
5400/5466.259=0.988
5800/6442.849=0.9
7400/7612.14=0.972


O/D

Then we revise the O/D matrix for the second iteration.

1

1833.638 1548.481

675.467

328.414

147.470

64.931

4598.401 4600

695.639

737.484

1392.427 899.089

407.419

269.296

4401.354 4400

319.323

662.939

1144.153 879.019

956.431

236.991

4198.856 4200

658.452

241.859

1357.326 1303.25 1239.758

600.014

5400.663 5400

735.256

963.349

545.097

837.551

5798.565 5800

726.389

1576.902 1429.444 998.341 1201.906 1460.018

4968.687 5731.014 6543.914 5146.32 5932.088 3648.801

4700
5600
6500
5200
6200
3600

738.208 1979.104

7393

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Then we calculate balancing factor for destination for the second iteration.
4700/4968.687=0.946
5600/5731.014=0.977
6500/6543.914=0.993
5200/5146.325=1.01
6200/5932.088=1.045
3600/3408.801=1.056

The final O/D matrix is calculated as below.

6

7400

O/D

1734.62

1512.86

670.74

331.698

154.106

68.567

4472.59

4600

658.07

720.52

1382.68

908.079

425.753

284.377

4379.48

4400

302.08

647.69

1136.14

887.809

999.470

250.262

4223.45

4200

622.89

236.29

1347.82

1316.28

1295.55

633.615

5452.47

5400

695.55

941.19

541.28

745.590

2068.16

884.454

5876.23

5800

687.16

1540.63

1396.56

1008.32

1255.99

1541.78

7430.46

7400

4700.39
4700

5599.2
5600

6475.24
6500

5197.79
5200

6199.03
6200

3663.05
3600

MODAL CHOICE
TAZ 1
Tiju
TAXI
15
MINIBUS
15
HIGER
17
KACHAMALE
17
ASSISTANT BUS
17
PUBLIC TRANSPORT 17
Ai
0.21

Tijw
3
3
3
4
4
5
0.37

Tijt
4
5
5
10
4
7
0.26

Fij
3
3
2
2
2
2
0.62

j
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
_
0.6
0.5

From Hayat to Megenagna,

For taxi , Cij = (0.21*15)+(0.37*3)+(0.26*4)+(0.62*3)+(0.5*0.6)= 7.46

For minibus, Cij=7.72
For Higer, Cij=7.52
For Kachamale, Cij=9.19
For assistant bus, Cij=7.33
For public, Cij=8.78

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability of taxi= e-7.46/2.6*10-3= 0.0058/2.6*10-3 = 0.223

Probability of minibus= 0.171
Probability of Higer = 0.209
Probability of Kachamale = 0.039
Probability of assistant bus =0.252
Probability of public = 0.059

From the above probabilities the one with the highest value is the preferred mode choice
which is assistant bus.

TAZ 2
tiju

tijw

Tijt

fij

TAXI
MINIBUS
HIGER
KACHAMALE
ASSISTANCE BUS
PUBLIC
Ai

49
64
42
37
57
54
0.5

10
10
15
15
15
18
0.37

40
55
35
30
50
42
0.61

3
3
2
2
2
2
0.42

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
_
0.6
0.26

Cij for taxi = 54.016

Cij for minibus = 70.666
Cij for higer = 48.896
Cij for kachamale = 43.19
Cij for assistant bus = 65.39
Cij for public = 60.276

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability for taxi =1.99*10-5

Probability for minibus =1.167*10-12
Probability for higer = 3.324*10-3
Probability for kachamale = 0.999
Probability for assistance bus = 2.66*10-10
Probability for public transport = 3.796*10-8

The preferred mode choice is Higer.

TAZ 3
TAXI

tiju
15

tijw
2

tijt
4

fij
3

j
0.6

MINIBUS
HIGER
KACHAMALE
ASISTANT BUS
PUBLIC

15
15
18
10
20

2
3
3
4
2

5
3
3
2
1

3
2
2
2
2

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6

Ai

Cij
Cij
Cij
Cij
Cij
Cij

0.21 0.42 0.5 0.37 0.21

for taxi = 7.34

for mini bus = 7.84
for higer = 7.31
for kachamale = 7.52
for assistant bus = 5.42
for public = 6.52

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability

for
for
for
for
for
for

taxi = 0.074
minibus = 0.045
higer = 0.076
kachamale = 0.0615
assistant bus = 0.502
public = 0.167

The preferred mode choice is assistant bus

Taz 4
tij
TAXI
20
MINIBUS
15
HIGER
30
KACHAMALE
12
ASSISTANCE BUS 11
PUBLIC
10
Ai
0.21

tijw
2
2
3
4
2
2
0.42

tijt
2
4
6
1
2
3
0.5

fij
3
3
2
2
2
2
0.37

j
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.21

Cij for taxi = 7.276

Cij for minibus = 7.226
Cij for higer = 11.426
Cij for kachamale = 5.566
Cij for assistance bus = 4.89
Cij for public = 5.306

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability for taxi = 0.039

Probability for minibus = 0.041
Probability for higer = 0.000615
Probability for kachamale = 0.216
Probability for assistance bus = 0.423 Probability for public = 0.279

The preferred mode choice is assistance bus

TAZ 5
tiju
TAXI
20
MINIBUS
19
KACHAMALE
15
HIGER
16
ASSISTANCE BUS 12
PUBLIC
10
Ai
0.21

Cij for taxi = 8.276

tijw
2
2
3
3
4
2
0.42

tijt
4
5
3
3
2
1
0.5

fij
3
3
2
2
2
2
0.37

j
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.21

Cij for minibus = 8.566

Cij for kachamale = 6.776
Cij for higer = 6.986
Cij for assistant bus = 5.94
Cij for public bus = 4.306

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability for taxi = 0.0134

Probability for mini bus = 0.01
Probability for kachamale = 0.06
Probability for higer = 0.049
Probability for assistant bus = 0.14
Probability for public bus = 0.71

The preferred mode choice is public bus.

TAZ 6
tiju
TAXI
30
MINIBUS
20
KACHAMALE
40
HIGER
20
ASSISTANCE BUS 10
PUBLIC
50
Ai
0.21

Cij for taxi = 11.88

tijw
2
2
3
3
4
2
0.42

tijt
7
15
10
11
9
8
0.5

fij
3
3
2
2
2
2
0.37

j
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.21

Cij for minibus = 13.776

Cij for kachamale = 15.526
Cij for higer = 11.826
Cij for assistant = 9.02
Cij for public = 16.206

PROBABLITY= eCij (ecij(taxi)+ecij(minibus)+ecij(higer)+ecij(kachamale)+ecij( assistant)+ecij(public))

Probability for taxi = 5*10-11

Probablity for minibus = 1.32*10-12
Probability for kachamale = 1.52*10-12
Probability for higer = 5.4*10-11
Probability for assistant = 8.85*10-10
Probability for public = 6.7*10-13

The preferred mode choice is the highest probability which is assistant.