M E M O R A N D UM

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

BRYON ALLEN
RYAN REYNOLDS

SUBJECT:

DOUG BURGUM MAKING BIG GAINS IN NORTH DAKOTA

DATE:

APRIL 11, 2016

A recent statewide poll in North Dakota conducted by WPA Research on behalf of the
Burgum campaign finds that Doug Burgum has closed the gap with Wayne Stenehjem and
now trails by just four points. Burgum clearly has momentum on his side.
Burgum has made big gains since February and is in a much stronger position than
expected at this point in the race. Burgum has moved into nearly a dead heat in just over
two short months.

February Ballot
In February, a WPA Research poll found much the same situation as a public North Dakota
United/DFM Research pollmost voters did not think of Burgum as a candidate for office
and he trailed Stenehjem by a substantial margin in a hypothetical ballot.

Burgum

North Dakota United and

DFM
(Feb 18-25)
10%

Stenehjem

59%

324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003

1005 Congress, Ste 495 Austin, TX 78701
1319 Classen Drive Oklahoma City, OK 73103
405.286.6500 @wparesearch
www.wparesearch.com

WPA
(Feb 28-29)
15%
60%

 2016 WPA Opinion Research

Do not copy or distribute without permission

Current Situation
Doug Burgums announcement and the subsequent advertising effort to introduce Burgum
and his plans for North Dakota to primary voters have been very successful. Burgum has
gained 29 points of name ID and 21 points worth of favorable impressions since late
February.
Burgum Image Trend
February 28-29

April 5-6

Name ID

63%

92%

Favorable

37%

58%

Unfavorable

11%

17%

Burgum has made corresponding gains on the ballot, gaining 25 points since our February
survey. Burgum now trails Stenehjem by just four points.
These data demonstrate how soft support for Stenehjem is in the state. He has gone from
a default option to holding a bare plurality of the vote as Burgum has introduced himself to
voters. This rapid shift in the vote is unusual for a 40 year elected official and statewide
office holder and shows that Stenehjem, though well-known, is not particularly strong
statewide.
February 28-29

April 5-6

Change

Doug Burgum

15%

40%

+25%

Wayne Stenehjem

60%

44%

-16%

Paul Sorum

2%

1%

-1%

Undecided

19%

15%

-4%

Conclusion
Doug Burgum has made great strides in a short period of campaigning for Governor. He is
now within four points of Wayne Stenehjem with strong favorable ratings. From the rapid
change in the ballot, it is clear that Doug Burgums message on the economy, budget
shortfall, and innovative solutions rather than the insufficient policies of career politicians
is attracting support across the state.
Voters clearly want a conservative business leader who can innovate to keep North Dakota
strong in the face of a changing economy.

Confidential

Page 2 of 3

4/11/2016

 2016 WPA Opinion Research

Do not copy or distribute without permission

Methodology
WPA Research conducted a survey among likely Republican primary voters in North
Dakota. WPA selected a random sample of likely Republican primary voters from a list of
past participants which North Dakota maintains, supplemented with Random Digit Dialing
(RDD). The sample for this survey was stratified based on geography, age, and gender.
This methodology allows us to avoid post-survey weighting which can reduce the
reliability of survey results.
Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview April 05-06,
2016. The study has a sample size of n=504 likely Republican primary voters (23% cell
phone interviews) and a margin of error is equal to 4.4% in 95 out of 100 cases.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for
campaigns from President to Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50
states and several foreign countries. In the 2013-2014 election cycle, 83% of WPA clients
won. WPA clients' win ratio has exceeded the standard by double digits for four straight
political cycles.
WPA has been nationally recognized for providing cutting edge research to help our clients
win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA
for our Predictive Analytics and Adaptive Sampling techniques. The award highlighted
these advanced methodologies which allowed us to buck national GOP polling trends and
deliver industry-leading results.
In addition to our political and policy research, WPA has conducted market research for
more than 110 fortune 500 corporations, donor research for more than 200 of the largest
and most successful not-for-profit organizations around the country, and alumni research
for dozens of colleges and universities.

Confidential

Page 3 of 3

4/11/2016