Housing Forecast: March 2016

--------------- 2015 --------------15.1

15.2
15.3
15.4
Housing Starts and Sales (SAAR, Thous. Units)
Housing Starts
Single-Family (1 Unit)
Percent Change: Year-over-Year
Multifamily (2+ Units)
New Single-Family Home Sales
Percent Change: Year-over-Year
Total Existing Home Sales (Single-Family, Condos and Co-Ops)
Percent Change: Year-over-Year
Total Home Sales (New + Existing)
Percent Change: Year-over-Year
Home Prices (NSA, Thous. $)
Median New
Median Total Existing
FHFA Purchase-Only Index (% Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4)
Mortgage Rates (Percent)
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage
Single-Family Mortgage Originations (NSA, Bil. $, 1-4 Units)
Mortgage Originations
Purchase
Refinance
Refinance Share (%)

--------------- 2016 --------------16.1

16.2
16.3
16.4

--------------- 2017 --------------17.1

17.2
17.3
17.4

2015

2016

2017

1,111
715
10.3%
397
501
14.6%
5,250
6.3%
5,751
7.0%

1,233
817
14.3%
416
550
9.9%
5,393
2.7%
5,944
3.3%

1,355
927
13.5%
428
617
12.1%
5,530
2.5%
6,147
3.4%

978
643

1,158
706

1,158
745

1,130
754

1,165
770

1,212
800

1,257
836

1,296
861

1,340
905

1,347
917

1,361
936

1,371
951

335
517

451
497

414
488

376
509

395
521

412
541

421
560

435
579

435
601

430
608

425
624

420
634

5,050

5,280

5,403

5,200

5,332

5,367

5,424

5,450

5,502

5,497

5,535

5,586

5,567

5,777

5,891

5,709

5,853

5,908

5,984

6,030

6,103

6,106

6,159

6,220

293
203
5.3%

290
228
5.6%

301
227
5.7%

300
221
5.8%

308
214
5.1%

303
238
4.4%

315
237
4.6%

315
232
5.2%

323
224
5.0%

315
248
4.3%

327
247
4.0%

326
240
3.8%

296
220
5.8%

310
230
5.2%

323
240
3.8%

3.7
2.9

3.8
2.9

4.0
2.9

3.9
3.0

3.7
2.9

3.6
2.9

3.7
2.9

3.7
3.0

3.7
3.0

3.7
3.0

3.8
3.1

3.8
3.1

3.9
2.9

3.7
2.9

3.7
3.1

394
165
229
58%

508
269
239
47%

434
271
164
38%

374
211
163
44%

339
171
167
49%

438
266
172
39%

413
271
142
34%

370
242
128
35%

304
184
120
40%

392
279
113
29%

389
282
106
27%

353
253
100
28%

1,710
915
795
46%

1,560
951
609
39%

1,439
999
440
31%

March 9, 2016
Note: Interest rate forecasts are based on rates from February 29, 2016.
Note: Unshaded areas denote actuals. Shaded areas denote forecasts.
Sources: Actuals: Census Bureau, National Association of REALTORS, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board. Forecasts: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business
prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group
bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any
particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the
ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.