METODO DEL INTERES SIMPLE

AO
2000
2005
2010
2015

POBLACION
120425
123284
124240
124755

2859
956
515

602125
616420
621200
promedio

124755
0.0024
2036
2015
TABLA VINCULADA A WORD
AO t(i)
2000
2005
2010
2015

POBLACION P(i)
120425
123284
124240
124755

P(i+1)-P(i)
2859
956
515

P(i+1)
602125
616420
621200
r promedio

Datos:
Po
to
r promedio
t

124755
2015
0.0024
2036

Poblacin futura
P
para el ao t:

0.0047
0.0016
0.0008
0.0024

130980

r
0.0047
0.0016
0.0008
0.0024

130980
2036

METODO DE LA CURVA NORMAL LOGISTICA

i AO t(i)
0
2005
1
2010
2
2015

POBLACIN P(i)
123284
124240
124755

P0*P2
15380295420
P0+P2
248039

(P1)^2
15435577600
2*P1
248480

Entonces
P0
123284

P1
124240

P2
124755

2*P0*P1*P2
3.82170E+015

Ps/P0
1.016729

(Ps/P0)-1
0.01673

a
-4.091

Ao futuro
2036

Ps-P1
1106

P0*(Ps-P1)
136410600

Ps-P0
2062

P1(Ps-P0)
256241830

Poblacin futura
P
para el

t
125050
2036

VERIFICACIN
SI CUMPLE
SI CUMPLE

Ps
125346
Ao t(0)
2005
b
-0.63045
3.1

METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

i
1
2
3
4
.
.
n
n+1
Suma
Promedio

X
X1
X2
X3
X4
.
.
Xn
Xn+1

AO

POBLACION Xi

2000
2005
2010
2015
Suma
n
Promedio

120425
123284
124240
124755
367949
3
122650

Y
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
.
.
Yn

Log Y
Log Y1
Log Y2
Log Y3
Log Y4
.
.
Log Yn

X^2
(x1)^2
(x2)^2
(x3)^2
(x4)^2
.
.
(Xn)^2

Razon de
crecimiento Yi

Log Yi

Xi^2

2.37
0.78
0.41

0.537
0.158
0.547

14502180625
15198944656
15435577600

3.56

1.242

45136702881

1.19

0.414

15045567627

Segn el crecimiento aritmetico

En matrices
1
122650

122650
15045567627

a
b

1.188
144333

a
b

5727.513243
-0.046690

-0.046690
0.000000

1.188
144333

a
b

65.471539
-0.000524

Segn el crecimiento geometrico

En matrices
1
122650

122650
15045567627

A
B

0.414
50718

5727.513

-0.0466900

0.414

Aos
despues del
ltimo censo

0
5
10
15
20
25

Poblacin
Poblacin

-0.047

0.0000004

50718

A
B

3.9114
-0.00003

Entonces

a
b

Poblacin

Crecimiento por lustro

Aritmtico

Geomtrico

124755
124860
124897
124910
124914
124916

124755
126961
128989
130867
132615
134250

Aritmtico
Yi=a+bXi
0.000846
0.000293
0.000101
0.000035
0.000012
0.000004

P 2035
P 2040

Aritmtico
124914
124916

Geomtrico
132615
134250

Geomtrico
Yi=a*(e^(b*Xi))
0.017681
0.015979
0.014558
0.013356
0.012327
0.011436

X*Y
X1*Y1
X2*Y2
X3*Y3
X4*Y4
.
.
Xn*Yn

X*Log
X1*Log
X2*Log
X3*Log
X4*Log
.
.
Xn*Log

Y
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4

Yn

Xi*Yi

Xi*Log Yi

285900
95600
51500

64694
19481
67980

433000

152155

144333

50718

541.917387
-0.000046

Incremento por lustro

Aritmtico
Xi*Yi
105
37
13
4
2
1

Geomtrico
Xi*Yi
2206
2029
1878
1748
1635
1535

METODO DE LA PARABOLA CUBICA

AO

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sumatoria

AO
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sumatoria
n

POBLACION (hab)

Y
121250
121921
122466
122909
123284
123561
123772
123942
124094
124240
124384
124513
124622
124701
124755
1854414

POBLACION (hab)

Y
121250
121921
122466
122909
123284
123561
123772
123942
124094
124240
124384
124513
124622
124701
124755
1854414
15

X2

-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0

0.49
0.36
0.25
0.16
0.09
0.04
0.01
0
0.01
0.04
0.09
0.16
0.25
0.36
0.49
2.8

X*Y

-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
-1.110223E-016

-84875
-73152.6
-61233
-49163.6
-36985.2
-24712.2
-12377.2
0
12409.4
24848
37315.2
49805.2
62311
74820.6
87328.5
6339.1

Entonces, convirtiendo en matrices

15
0
0
2.8
2.8
0
0
0.9352

2.8
0
0.9352
0

0
0.9352
0
0.36964

0.00000
2.30459
0.00000
-5.83068

-0.45249
0.00000
2.42405
0.00000

Resolviendo para los coeficientes

a0
a1
a2
a3

0.15113
0.00000
-0.45249
0.00000

a0
a1
a2
a3

123985.324
1721.445
-1916.378
1624.309

Finalmente
Para X=
Y=a0+a1*X+a2*X^2+a3*X^3
Y

X3

X4

X5

X6

-0.343
-0.216
-0.125
-0.064
-0.027
-0.008
-0.001
0
0.001
0.008
0.027
0.064
0.125
0.216
0.343
0

0.2401
0.1296
0.0625
0.0256
0.0081
0.0016
0.0001
0
0.0001
0.0016
0.0081
0.0256
0.0625
0.1296
0.2401
0.9352

-0.16807
-0.07776
-0.03125
-0.01024
-0.00243
-0.00032
-0.00001
0
0.00001
0.00032
0.00243
0.01024
0.03125
0.07776
0.16807
0

0.117649
0.046656
0.015625
0.004096
0.000729
0.000064
0.000001
0
0.000001
0.000064
0.000729
0.004096
0.015625
0.046656
0.117649
0.36964

X2*Y

X3*Y

59412.5
43891.56
30616.5
19665.44
11095.56
4942.44
1237.72
0
1240.94
4969.6
11194.56
19922.08
31155.5
44892.36
61129.95
345366.71

-41588.75
-26334.936
-15308.25
-7866.176
-3328.668
-988.488
-123.772
0
124.094
993.92
3358.368
7968.832
15577.75
26935.416
42790.965
2210.305

Sumatoria

Sumatoria

a0
a1
a2
a3

1854414
6339.1
345366.71
2210.305

0.00000
-5.83068
0.00000
17.45713

1854414
6339.1
345366.71
2210.305

Ao futuro
28
+a1*X+a2*X^2+a3*X^3
34326569.6

2036

AO

POBLACIN

X2

X3

X4

X5

1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
Sumatoria

Y
101428
120425
123284
124240
124755
594132

-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
0

1
0.25
0
0.25
1
2.5

-1
-0.125
0
0.125
1
0

1
0.0625
0
0.0625
1
2.125

-1
-0.03125
0
0.03125
1
0

AO

POBLACIN

X*Y

X2*Y

X3*Y

1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
Sumatoria

Y
101428
120425
123284
124240
124755
594132

-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
0

-101428
-60212.5
0
62120
124755
25234.5

101428
30106.25
0
31060
124755
287349.25

-101428
-15053.125
0
15530
124755
23803.875

0
2.125
0
2.03125

a0
a1
a2
a3

594132
25235
287349
23804

-0.571
0.000
1.143
0.000

0.000
-3.778
0.000
4.444

594132
25235
287349
23804

Entonces, convirtiendo en matrices

5
0
2.5
0
2.5
0
2.5
0
2.125
0
2.125
0
Resolviendo para los coeficientes
a0
a1
a2
a3

0.486
0.000
-0.571
0.000

a0
a1
a2
a3

124379
1199
-11105
10465

0.000
3.611
0.000
-3.778

Finalmente
Ao futuro
Para X=
3.1
Y=a0+a1*X+a2*X^2+a3*X^3
Y
333130

2036

X6
1
0.015625
0
0.015625
1
2.03125

1993
2000
2005
2010
2015

101428
120425
123284
124240
124755

1981
1993
2000
2010
2015

70585
101428
120425
124240
124755