Market Pulse-March 2016 (Public)

1
MARKET PULSE
March 2016
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closed
transaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.
MARKET CONDITIONS
Number of Floor CallsContinue Rising

Index (>50 is positive)
80
70
67
67 68
Index
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Rebound

80

67
70
60
Index
50
40
56
51
45
38
38
65
50
41
30
20
10
0
2014-Q12014-Q22014-Q32014-Q42015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q1
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Rising

80
72
70
Index
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
70 71
ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Up
70
70
60
60
53
50
53
50
45
68
38
Index
40
37
30
20
10
0
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
2016-Q1
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market
area this month was
Open HouseTraffic Down

90
80
70
77
77
Index
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
74
Open HouseTraffic Rose QTQ

80
67
Index
60
40
73
68
55
44
54
40
50
40
20
0
Q: Please indicate the movement of each of the following in your market area compared to last month & last
year Open house traffic
10
Auctions on the Rise

50
45
4444
40
35
Index
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
Jan-16
11
Auctions Hit New Quarterly Peak

50
44
40
Index
30
29
28
30
32
33
32
23
20
10
0
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
12
All Cash Purchases Bounce Back

70
60
Index
50
50
54 55
40
30
20
10
0
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
13
All Cash Purchases Increasing

60
50
Index
40
30
20
41
47
55
38
54
41
44
10
0
2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
14
Lack of Housing Inventory Remains #1 Concern

Lack of Inventory
40%
Decline in housing affordability
18%
Home prices overinflated

Slow down in economic growth
13%
7.5%
Housing bubble
5.4%
Lending & financing
5.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
15
REALTORS Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

Inventory
Affordability
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
16
Fewer REALTORSOptimistic about MarketConditions

Over the NextYear
Index

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
74
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
64
60
17
More REALTORS Expect Mostly Similar/Better

MarketConditionsOver the NextYear
80
73
70
62
60
Index
75
56
65
67
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
59
61
63
18
Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen
Increase in rates, instability in politics, decline
in economy.
Overinflated prices.
Layoffs in oil industry.
Buyer apprehension about the economy and
new housing bubble.
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
19
LASTTRANSACTION
20
Most Properties SellingOver/AtAsking Price

Below
At
Over
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
21
Premium Paid overAsking Price Dropped Slightly

Average
14.0%
12.0%
11%
9.8%
10.0%
7.7%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
0.0%
22
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Stable

12.0%
Average
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
10%
6.7%
7.5%
10%
10%
7.9%
2.0%
0.0%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
10%
9.0%
10%
23
% Paid BelowAsking Price Dropped

0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
Jul- Aug Sep Oct- Nov Dec Jan- Feb- Mar Apr- May Jun- Jul- Aug Sep Oct- Nov Dec Jan- Feb- Mar
14 -14 -14 14 -14 -14 15 15 -15 15 -15 15 15 -15 -15 15 -15 -15 16 16 -16
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%-13%-13%-13%-12%-9.6
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
24
Discount on Asking Price Dropped Slightly

Average
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
-10%
-11%
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
-10%
-10%
2015-Q4
2016-Q1
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-5.7%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-13%
-12%
25
1/2 Properties Received MultipleOffers

80%
70%
60%
75%
62%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
50%
26
Slightly Fewer Properties Received MultipleOffers

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
69% 66%
61%
58% 60%
67%
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

63%
65%
64%
27
Number of Offers Increasing

4.0
Average
3.3
3.1
3.5
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
28
Average Number of Offers Rebounded

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3.1
Average
2.8
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

2.6
2.5
2.8
29
MultipleOffers HigherYTY
16-Mar
15-Mar
38%
40%
35%
30%
27%
23% 22%
25%
21% 20%
20%
15%
10%
4.6%
5%
0%
12%
11%
Number of Offers
6.7%
6.0% 5.5%
6+
30
Number of 3+ Offers Increasing

1-2
100%
3+
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
Mar-14
10%
31
3+Offers Higher in Every PriceCategoryYTY Except

below $200K &Over $2M
16-Mar
58%
60%
50%
52%
44%
54%
55%
52%54%
50%
57%57%
45%
41%
38%
40%
30%
15-Mar
28%
28%
23%
20%
10%
0%
Under $200k $200-$299k
$300-$399k
$400-$499k
$500-$749k
$750-$999k
$1M-$1.99M
$2M+
32
About 1/5 Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

35%
30%
26%
25%
23%
21%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
0%
33
Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

Reductions Dropped
35%
Average
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
25%
31%
28%
25%
28%
31%
24%
5%
0%
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2015-Q3
2015-Q4
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
2016-Q1
34
Proportion of BuyersWhoWere Renters Rising

60%
50%
52%
47%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
42%
35
Proportion of Previous RentersContinues Increasing

50%
40%
46%
40%
34%
40% 40%
38%
41%
43%
44%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
36
More Sellers Becoming Renters

25%
21%
20%
15%
13%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
13%
37
Proportion of Sellers Becoming Renters Dips

25%
20%
15%
19%
21%
18%
20%
15% 15%
16%
16%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter after selling the property?
14%
38
Share of First-time Buyers Up in February

Long RunAverage: 31%
45%
40%
% First-time Buyers
Long Run Average
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

35% 35%
39
Share of First-Time Buyers Shrank Slightly

40%
Average
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
32%
28%
30%
35%
32%
30%
31%
33%
32%
10%
5%
0%
2014-Q12014-Q22014-Q32014-Q42015-Q12015-Q22015-Q32015-Q42016-Q1
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
40
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Primary residence
Investment
Other
1.5%
5.2%
3.9% 4.9%
3.9% 1.5%
16%
15%
78%
77% 81%
13%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Vacation home
Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

41
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Primary residence
100%
90%
80%
Investment
Vacation home
Other
3%
6%
6%
4%
4%
18%
16%
16%
16%
5%
18%
16%
3%
16%
75%
75%
76%
78%
75%
76%
77%
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2016-Q1
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: What was the intended use of the property?

42
Proportion of International BuyersUp

Long RunAverage: 6.1%
% International Buyers
Long Run Average
12%
10%
8.6%
8%
6%
4%
5.0%
2%
0%
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
3.8%
43
Proportion of International Buyers RemainsConstant

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
8.5%
5.0% 5.0% 5.6%
5.8% 6.0% 6.0%

5.9% 6.1%
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
44
Top 10 Counties of Respondents

February 2016
March 2016
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Riverside
San Diego
San Diego
Riverside
Orange
Orange
Sacramento
Sacramento
San Bernardino
Alameda
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Alameda
Contra Costa
Contra Costa
San Bernardino
10
Sonoma
Fresno
Q: In which county do you live?

45
What are REALTORS Saying?

Pocket listings put onto Zillow and other sites are making
things difficult.
Personal income has not gone up. This is why sellers cant
afford to move up.
Very low inventory.
Still seeing multiple over askign offers on properties in good

condition.
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share
with us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or
other topics?

Market Pulse-March 2016 (Public)

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1

transaction and business activity in their market area

Number of Floor CallsContinue Rising

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Rebound

Index (>50 is positive)

ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Rising

Open HouseTraffic Down

Index (>50 is positive)

Open HouseTraffic Rose QTQ

Auctions on the Rise

Auctions Hit New Quarterly Peak

All Cash Purchases Bounce Back

All Cash Purchases Increasing

Index (>50 is positive)

Lack of Housing Inventory Remains #1 Concern

Decline in housing affordability

Home prices overinflated

Lending & financing

REALTORS Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

Fewer REALTORSOptimistic about MarketConditions

Index (>50 is positive)

More REALTORS Expect Mostly Similar/Better

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Most Properties SellingOver/AtAsking Price

Premium Paid overAsking Price Dropped Slightly

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Stable

% Paid BelowAsking Price Dropped

Discount on Asking Price Dropped Slightly

1/2 Properties Received MultipleOffers

Slightly Fewer Properties Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Number of Offers Increasing

Average Number of Offers Rebounded

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Number of 3+ Offers Increasing

3+Offers Higher in Every PriceCategoryYTY Except

Under $200k $200-$299k

About 1/5 Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

Proportion of BuyersWhoWere Renters Rising

Proportion of Previous RentersContinues Increasing

More Sellers Becoming Renters

Proportion of Sellers Becoming Renters Dips

Share of First-time Buyers Up in February

Long Run Average

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Share of First-Time Buyers Shrank Slightly

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

Proportion of International BuyersUp

Long Run Average

Proportion of International Buyers RemainsConstant

5.8% 6.0% 6.0%

Top 10 Counties of Respondents

Q: In which county do you live?

What are REALTORS Saying?

Very low inventory.

Still seeing multiple over askign offers on properties in good

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

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