Alpha

Beta
Gamma

0.01
0.12
0.95

Year

Game

Attendees

2007

1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Deaseasonalized
Attendees
34840
35220
35300
35480
35160
35380
35340
36600
37400
37920
38520
39720
39640
39800
40240
40500
40620
41040
41100
41860
43320

Projected
Deseasonalized
Attendees

Historical
Seasonality
Factor

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

33288
33709
34129
34550
34970
35390
35811
36231
36652
37072
37493
37913
38333
38754
39174
39595
40015
40435
40856
41276
41697
42117
42537
42958
43378

1.03
1.18
1.12
0.78
1.00
1.02
1.12
1.08
0.69
0.98
0.96
1.23
1.12
0.72
1.00
1.06
1.15
1.09
0.74
0.98
1.02
1.14
1.04
0.79
1.10

Level

Trend

32868
33292
33717
34148
34587
35008
35429
35835
36244
36623
37029
37421
37867
38299
38731
39159
39619
40020
40429
40860
41274
41681
42097
42497
42945
43418

420
421
421
422
424
424
424
422
420
415
414
411
416
417
419
420
425
422
421
422
421
419
419
417
420
427

Seasonality
Factor

Forecast

1.02
1.17
1.09
0.74
1.01
1.03
1.18
1.12
0.78
1.00
1.02
1.12
1.08
0.69
0.98
0.96
1.22
1.12
0.72
1.00
1.05
1.16
1.09
0.74
0.98
1.02
1.15
1.04
0.79
1.10

33837
39284
37194
25684
35459
36380
42296
40510
28457
37153
38166
42541
41367
26898
38319
38080
48982
45429
29378
41283
43912
48634
46239
31578
42590
44774
50711
46588
35510
49900

Error

Squared
Error

Mean
Squared
Error

-2126 4519506 4519506

611
373693 2446600
688
473126 1788775
-790 624042 1497592
0
0
1198073

Absolute
Deviation

2125.91
611.30
687.84
789.96
0.01

Mean Average
Deviation

Absolute
Mean Average
Percentage
Bias
Percentage Error
Error60000

Tracking
Signal

50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

2125.91
1368.61
1141.69
1053.76
843.01

4.53
1.22
1.50
2.18
0.00

4.53
2.88
2.42
2.36
1.89

-2126
-1515
-827
-1617
-1617

-1.00
-1.11
-0.72
-1.53
-1.92

34840
35220
35300
35480
35160
35380
35340
36600
37400
37920
38520
39720
39640
39800
40240
40500
40620
41040
41100
41860
43320

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9765998344
R Square
0.9537472365
Adjusted R Square
0.9513128805
Standard Error
589.38566052
Observations
21
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
1 136096932.987
19 6600133.679654
20 142697066.6667

Coefficients
Standard Error
32867.930736 304.6043895591
420.41558442 21.2399848614

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000

MS
F
Significance F
136096933 391.78626559 3.8454314E-014
347375.45682

10000
5000
0

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
107.90366739 5.90087E-028 32230.3864215 33505.47505 32230.386422
19.793591528 3.84543E-014 375.959785185 464.87138365 375.95978519

9 10 11 12 13 14 1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Upper 95.0%
33505.47505
464.87138365

Alpha
Beta
Year Game
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

0.89
0.01
Attendees
Level Trend
33595 378
34200
34176 380
39800
39246 427
38200
38356 414
26900
28154 308
35100
34399 367
36100
35959 379
40200
39792 414
39100
39217 404
25300
26813 276
36200
35237 357
35900
35868 360
46500
45414 452
43100
43392 427
27900
29582 285
39200
38214 368
41900
41549 398
46100
45661 435
43900
44132 415
30100
31627 286
40500
39593 363
42500
42231 386
48200
47610 436
44200
44606 401
33900
35074 302
47800
46487 413
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

Forecast
33973
34556
39673
38770
28462
34766
36338
40206
39621
27089
35594
36228
45866
43819
29867
38582
41947
46096
44547
31913
39955
42617
48046
45008
35376
46900
47313
47726
48139
48552

Error

Squared Error

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

0
-2787
1826
11839
-1348

0
7767515
3334107
140160349
1817337

10

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

Mean Average Deviation

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

0
3883758
3700541
37815493
30615862

0.0061106558
2787.0262016989
1825.9537072581
11838.9336162151
1348.0864748279

0.0061106558
1393.5161561773
1537.6620065376
4112.979908957
3560.0012221312

Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

1.30291169036184E-005
2.7814697897
3.1803507438
10.5387986062
8.9713541053

0
-2787
-961
10878
9530

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

1.30291169036184E-005
5.5629265503
3.978112652
32.6141421934
2.7015761019

Tracking Signal

-1
-2
-0.6250259166
2.6447624963
2.6769003553

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.4349698909
R Square
0.189198806
Adjusted R Square
0.1539465802
Standard Error
5886.5740046
Observations
25
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
1 185976069.2308
23 796990330.7692
24
982966400

Coefficients
Standard Error
33595 2427.096639401
378.23076923 163.2641877725

Chart Title
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000

MS
F
Significance F
185976069.23 5.3670031206 0.0297795676
34651753.512

10000
0

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
13.841640854 1.21688E-012 28574.1680657 38615.831934 28574.168066
2.3166793305 0.0297795676 40.4930646864 715.96847378 40.493064686

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Chart Title

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Upper 95.0%
38615.831934
715.96847378

Year

Game

2007

1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Alpha
Attendees
Level
34840
34200
34244
39800
39421
38200
38283
26900
27677
35100
34593
36100
35997
40200
39913
39100
39156
25300
26246
36200
35520
35900
35874
46500
45774
43100
43283
27900
28950
39200
38500
41900
41668
46100
45797
43900
44030
30100
31051
40500
39855
42500
42319
48200
47798
44200
44446
33900
34620
47800
46900
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

0.93
Forecast
34840
34244
39421
38283
27677
34593
35997
39913
39156
26246
35520
35874
45774
43283
28950
38500
41668
45797
44030
31051
39855
42319
47798
44446
34620
46900
46900
46900
46900
46900

Error

Squared Error

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

0
-3200
1000
10600
-3000

0
10240008
999997
112359973
9000008

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

3
Column C

0
5120004
3746669
30899995
26519997

Mean Average Deviation

0.0012746537
3200.0012746537
999.9987253463
10599.9987253463
3000.0012746537

4
Column E

0.0012746537
1600.0012746537
1400.0004248846
3700
3560.0002549307

Absolute Percentage Error

2.71781167173798E-006
6.3872280931
2.1786464604
29.2010984169
6.0120266025

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

2.71781167173798E-006
3.1936154055
2.8552924238
9.4417439221
8.7558004582

0
-3200
-2200
8400
5400

Tracking Signal

-1
-2
-1.5714308259
2.2702688923
1.5168520337

Year
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Game
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

Attendees
34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

Level

Forecast

Error

Squared Error

Chart Title
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

3
Column C

43073.33
43073
43073
43073
43073
43073

-3827
-7027
-2827
6773
-6827

14643378
49374044
7990044
45878044
46603378

4
Column E

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

Mean Average Deviation

Chart Title

umn C

Column E

14643378
32008711
24002489
29471378
32897778

3826.6666666667
7026.6666666667
2826.6666666667
6773.3333333333
6826.6666666667

3826.6666666667
5426.6666666667
4560
5113.3333333333
5456

Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

8.1592039801
14.0252827678
6.1583151779
18.6593204775
13.6806947228

8.1592039801
11.0922433739
9.4476006419
11.7505306008
12.1365634252

-3827
-10853
-13680
-6907
-13733

Tracking Signal

-1
-2
-3
-1.3507170795
-2.5171065494

Year
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Game
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

Attendees
34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

Level

Forecast

Error

Squared Error

Chart Title
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

3
Column C

43320
43320
43320
43320
43320
43320

-3580
-6780
-2580
7020
-6580

12816400
45968400
6656400
49280400
43296400

4
Column E

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

Mean Average Deviation

Chart Title

lumn C

Column E

12816400
29392400
21813733
28680400
31603600

3580
6780
2580
7020
6580

3580
5180
4313.3333333333
4990
5308

Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

7.6332622601
13.5329341317
5.6209150327
19.3388429752
13.1863727455

7.6332622601
10.5830981959
8.9290371415
11.5314885999
11.862465429

-3580
-10360
-12940
-5920
-12500

Tracking Signal

-1
-2
-3
-1.1863727455
-2.3549359457

Year
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Game
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

Attendees
34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

Level

Forecast

Error

Squared Error

Chart Title
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

3
Column C

38512
38512
38512
38512
38512
38512

-8388
-11588
-7388
2212
-11388

70358544
134281744
54582544
4892944
129686544

4
Column E

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

Mean Average Deviation

Chart Title

olumn C

Column E

70358544
102320144
86407611
66028944
78760464

8388
11588
7388
2212
11388

8388
9988
9121.3333333333
7394
8192.8

Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

17.8848614072
23.129740519
16.0958605664
6.0936639118
22.8216432866

17.8848614072
20.5073009631
19.0368208309
15.8010316011
17.2051539382

-8388
-19976
-27364
-25152
-36540

Tracking Signal

-1
-2
-3
-3.4016770354
-4.4600136705

Year
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Game
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

Attendees
34200
39800
38200
26900
35100
36100
40200
39100
25300
36200
35900
46500
43100
27900
39200
41900
46100
43900
30100
40500
42500
48200
44200
33900
47800
46900
50100
45900
36300
49900

Level

Forecast

Error

Squared Error

47800
47800
47800
47800
47800

900
-2300
1900
11500
-2100

810000
5290000
3610000
132250000
4410000

47800

Mean Squared Error

Absolute Deviation

Mean Average Deviation

810000
3050000
3236667
35490000
29274000

900
2300
1900
11500
2100

900
1600
1700
4150
3740

Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Average Percentage Error

Bias

1.9189765458
4.5908183633
4.1394335512
31.6804407713
4.2084168337

1.9189765458
3.2548974546
3.5497428201
10.5824173079
9.3076172131

900
-1400
500
12000
9900

Tracking Signal

1
-0.875
0.2941176471
2.8915662651
2.6470588235