Irene Rafael

April 17, 2016

Homework Assignment 1
Public opinion polls are often conducted to get an idea on how the people feel about a
certain issue(s). Although many polls are conducted, the results can be misleading and with this
it shows that either the argument is strong or weak. Because arguments are either weak or strong,
polls are considered to be inductive. Inductive arguments dont demonstrate their conclusions,
they support them (Moore and Parker, 40). The two public opinions that will be used to
demonstrate a weak and strong argument are whether Syria should be attacked and voter ID
laws.
In Public Opinion on Voter ID Laws: Strong Support, Shaky Foundation, conducted by
David Wilson, is a good example of a weak survey. In this survey that was conducted on May 20
to June 6, 2012, the property in question was how much they (Americans) favored or opposed
voter ID laws (Wilson). Those who participated in this survey were asked in five different ways
with the same meaning whether they favored or opposed the voted ID laws. The questions were
worded as the following: two suggesting support of the laws, two suggesting opposition to the
laws, and one version with no arguments (Wilson). According to Wilson this was done in order
to take out as much bias as possible because the reason this poll was being conducted was
because the views that exists toward African Americans as voters. Therefore, those who are
being targeted are the African Americans. The sample size of this poll was of 906 adults who live
in the United States. The sample size of the population is not enough to avoid hastiness because
public opinion polls that are considered well done consist between 1,000 and 1,500 in the
sample (Moore and Parker, 354). Since the poll has less than 1,000 participants it does not show
an accurate representation of the population.

The people who were asked the question regarding the ID voter laws were non- African
Americas, who spoke English, and those who categorized as Democrats, Republicans, and
Liberals (Voter ID and Race). These poll was conducted through a telephone interview so this
can be viewed as a random sample. The poll is a random sample because not all important
variables were factor out such as age, race (not African American), etc. The method that was
used to conduct the poll was the dual sampling frame by using cell phones and landlines
(Wilson). I think with this poll there was opportunity for bias because those who were being
targeted were the African Americans. Many people have different views about them and are
prejudice towards them. As the study says, many people expressed racial resentment and that it is
why at the end many ended up saying that they supported the voter ID laws (Voter ID and Race).
It can also be seen as slanted questions because the questions that were asked to participants
were just reworded. Overall, I would give this poll a 5 because it does not give sufficient
information as to why voter ID laws should be applicable to African Americans and it is not
enough to say that it is due to racial resentment. Also it does not thoroughly explain how the
survey was conducted. The next poll has a strong argument.
The poll CNN Poll: Public against Syria Strike Resolution," John Helton and Paul
Steinhauser question people whether the United States should do a military strike on Syria. The
target is Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. According to the poll many Americans oppose this
strike because they feel like it will not make any difference whether this occurs or not (Helton
and Paul). In total, 1,022 Americans participated in this poll. This sample show a strong
argument because the sample ranges from between 1,000 and 1, 500 (Moore and Parker, 354).
Because the sample is large, there is a greater chance that the error margin will be small allowing
for the generalization to be seen as true as possible. Based on the population size, hasty

generalization can be avoided because the sample is large enough. The poll was conducted in a
way that the sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age,
education, region of country, and telephone usage (CNN Poll). Those who participated were the
adults. This poll was done on September 6- 8, 2013. The methodology for this poll is random
sample since it the population that were chosen was because the individual had an equal chance
of being part of the survey (Moore and Park, 353). This poll was also conducted with landlines as
well with cell phones. This was done by having the numbers randomly generated which has the
ability to target specific demographic segments of the population within the geographic sample
frame. By doing this is it allowed people from different gender, race, age (adults), education,
and etc. to be surveyed. This poll was done with live interviewers within the span of three days.
For this poll, there could not have been chance of bias because the sample represents the
population well. The sample was big enough and diversified enough to be representative (Moore
and Parker, 355). In order for this to have biased, the sample needed to have been smaller, below
1,000. The poll also consisted of different questions. Overall, I will rate this poll as an 8 because
it does show a large sample with a small error margin in which it shows that the conclusion is
being supported. It seems to have a diversified sample but it does not explain from what ages to
what ages were surveyed. Learning about a weak and strong inductive argument has helped me
to better understand how polls work and what things I should look out for to identify such
argument.

Works Cited
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/09/09/6a.poll.syria.pdf (CNN Poll)
"Genesys - Landline Random-Digit Dial Samples." Genesys - Landline Random-Digit Dial
Samples. N.p., n.d. <http://www.m-s-g.com/Web/genesys/landline- sample.aspx>.
Brewer, Paul and David Wilson. "Voter ID and Race." Voter ID and Race. N.p., 17 July 2012.
<http://www.udel.edu/cpc/research/idrace2012/Voter_ID_and_Race_2012/Voter_ID_and
_Race.html>.
Helton, John and Paul Steinhauser. "CNN Poll: Public against Syria Strike Resolution." CNN.
Cable News Network, Sept.-Oct. 2013. <http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/09/politics/syriapoll-main/>.
Moore, Brooke Noel., and Richard Parker. Critical Thinking. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2012.
Print.
Wilson, David C. "Public Opinion on Voter ID Laws: Strong Support, Shaky Foundation." The
Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, July 2012.
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-c-wilson/public-opinion-on-voteri_b_1683873.html>.