Conor Wight

Mrs. Lyon
AP Biology
Chi squared lab
9/28/2015
Intro:
The Mars Company, responsible for producing M&Ms, has a set
ratio of different colored M&Ms that go into each bag. According to the
M&M website, in the make up of a Milk Chocolate bag of M&Ms is
approximately the values shown in the table below.
Color
Brown
Blue
Orange
Green
Red
Yellow

Percentage
13%
24%
20%
16%
13%
14%

The purpose of the experiment conducted was to test the accuracy of

this data. For this experiment, the method applied was a goodness of
fit test; this is a statistical test which allows for one to determine if
differences in observed data and expected data are due to chance or
due to other factors. Specifically, the goodness of fit test applied was a
Chi-Square Analysis.
A Chi-Square Analysis always involves a null hypothesis, which is
the same for all experiments; Any difference between the observed
and expected data is due to chance. The ultimate objective of the ChiSquare Analysis is to confirm or refute this statement. A value must be
calculated for Chi-Square, using the formula;
X^2=(O-E)^2/E
If this value is greater than the critical value, the null hypothesis is
rejected due to the data being too different from the expected results,
lowering the likelihood that the difference was due to chance. If the
value of Chi-Square is less than the critical value, the null hypothesis is
accepted due to the data being uniform with what was expected,
indicating that any differences in observed and expected data are due
to chance.
Problem;
How accurate is the data for the make up of a milk chocolate bag
of M&Ms provided by the Mars Company, and is any difference in

observed data from the expected data due to chance or for other
possible reasons?
Hypothesis:
If all calculations are done correctly, then the null hypothesis will
be accepted, as results will be close to the Mars Companys provided
data.
Materials:
1 bag of M&Ms
2 Paper Towels
1 Calculator
Procedure:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Prepare materials listed

Open a bag of M&Ms and group them into colour categories
Count the number of M&Ms in each category
Record the numbers in the first row of the provided Data table
Calculate the expected number of each color
Calculate the Chi-Square value of the observed data

Results
Individual Group Data Results
Data
Table 1
Observe
d (O)
Expecte
d (E)
Differen
ce (OE)^2
Differen
ce
Squared
(O-E)^2
(OE)^2/E
X^2=(
O-

Brown

Blue

48

109

Color Categories
Orang Green Red
e
67
82
34

48.62

89.76

74.8

59.84

-0.62

19.24

-7.8

22.16

.384

370.17 60.84

491.07 213.16

338.56 N/A

.008

4.12

.813

8.21

4.39

6.46

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

24.001

Yellow

Total

34

374

48.62

52.4

374

-14.02

-18.4

N/A

E)^2/E

Degrees of Freedom = number of categories -1 = 6-1 = 5.

Entire Class Data
Data
Table 2
Observe
d (O)
Expecte
d (E)
Differen
ce (O-E)
Differen
ce
Squared
(O-E)^2
(OE)^2/E
X^2=(
OE)^2/E

Brown

Blue

315

532

Color Categories
Orang Green Red
e
474
408
281

297.18

598.64

457.2

365.76

17.82

-66.64

16.8

317.55

4440.8
9

1.07
N/A

Yellow

Total

276

2286

297.18

320.04

2286

42.24

-16.18

-44.04

N/A

282.24

1784.2
2

261.79

1939.5
2

N/A

7.42

.62

4.88

.88

6.06

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

20.93

Degree
s of
Freedo
m
1
2
3
4
5

Probability
null hypothesis
0.90
0.50

0.25

0.10

.05

.01

.016
.21
0.58
1.06
1.61

1.32
2.77
4.11
5.39
6.63

2.71
4.61
6.25
7.78
9.24

3.84
5.99
7.82
9.49
11.07

6.64
9.21
11.35
13.28
15.09

.46
1.39
2.37
3.36
4.35

Accept Null HypothesisReject

With accordance to the probability table, the null hypothesis is

rejected as 24.001>11.07
Error Analysis
In spite of careful counting and recounting, with approximately
374 total M&Ms it is of course possible that there was a slight
miscount, though it would not have been off by a sizeable degree.
Calculations could have also been incorrect.
Discussion and Conclusion

Stated Hypothesis: If all calculations are done correctly, then the null
hypothesis will be accepted as results will be close to the Mars
Companys provided data.
As shown in the data above, this hypothesis was not confirmed. The
probability of getting the expected deviation from the observed data
was less than 5%, which strongly suggests that some factor other than
chance is to blame for the difference between observed and expected
data.
This experiment has shown that the Mars Companys provided
data is not always accurate, at least in the case of the M&Ms bag used
in this particular individual group. However, the rejection of the null
hypothesis is not necessarily a given in this, or any, experiment.
Although the calculations appear to be sound and it is against
mathematical probability, it is possible to some degree that the level of
disparity between the observed data and expected data is simply due
to chance. The rejection of the null hypothesis is a very well placed
guess; it is not a finite decision.
In spite of the possibility of the difference just being due to
chance, it is unlikely. The resulting calculation of the Chi Square of the
data produced a value of 24.001, a value which, coupled with 5
degrees of freedom, effectively rejects the null hypothesis. This is
because the value if approximately 6% of the total number of M&Ms
(374). If the percentage of the Chi Square value is over 5% of the total
number of the data, then the probability is strong that the difference
between the expected data and the observed data is not due to
chance. The reason for the difference could potentially be an error in
the distribution of colored M&Ms at an M&M factory, though there is no
way to confirm this.
This experiment should prompt future studies of milk chocolate
M&M bags to see if the Mars Companys estimates are generally
consistent or if the result found in this experiment is relatively true for
all bags of milk chocolate M&M
Based on the class data, however, the null hypothesis should be
accepted. This is because the Chi Squared value, 20.93, is less than 5%
of the total number of M&Ms (2286). This means that there is a high
probability that the difference between observed and expected results
is simply due to chance.
Although the individual groups data resulted in a rejection of the
null hypothesis, the groups null hypothesis is accepted. This is
because the combination of all individual groups in the class created a
larger pool of data. It was in this pool that the data provided by the
Mars Company. It is likely the other individual groups experienced
acceptance of the null hypothesis for the bags they were provided, and

the bag used in the individual experiment explained above was an

unusual case.
The purpose of collecting data from the entire group was to
further test the Mars Companys data of colored M&Ms in each
respective bag. It is unfair to either confirm or deny the accuracy of the
companys data based on one bag, as it could potentially be an outlier.
Compiling the data of several individual bags essentially provides for
several trials, giving a larger pool of data to test the goodness of fit.