Mason1

KyleMason
Dr.Lund
Pol33101
30November2014
UnseatingaPoliticalStronghold:ACaseStudyExamined
ThefirstcongressionaldistrictofIdahoencompassesthewholeoftheIdahopanhandle
andcontinuesdownthestatetoincludethewesternthirdoflowerIdaho.Thedistricthasa
populationof812,462,is92.7%white,andisoneofonlytwocongressionaldistrictsinIdaho
(U.S.CensusBureau).ItalsohappenstobeoneofthemostRepublicandistrictsintheUnion.
AccordingtotheCookPartisanIndex,whichaveragesthedifferencebetweenthepercentageof
votestheDemocraticcandidatereceivesandthepercentageofvotestheRepublicancandidate
receiveperPresidentialelection,theIdahosfirstdistricthasaratingofR+18meaningthat
overthelastseveralPresidentialelections,firstdistrictvotershaveconsistentlychosenthe
Republicancandidateinoverwhelmingnumbers(CookPolitcalReport).
YetdespitethedistrictsandstatesstrongtendencytovoteRepublican,thefirst
congressionaldistrictelectedaDemocrat,WaltMinnick,asitsrepresentativein2008despite
havinganincumbentRepublican,BillSali,contestingtheelection.Minnicksvictorywas
extremelyclose,withhimsecuringonly50.6%ofthevote,andcameasasurpriseinadistrict
manypredictorslistedasasurewinforRepublicans(Idaho,ElectionDivision).Therefore,the
questionunderconsiderationiswhatfactorscontributedtoWaltMinnicksvictoryoverBillSaliin
Idahos2008District1election?Ofthesefactors,whichwerethemostimportant?
DuetothedramaticdisadvantagesWaltMinnickfacedinopposingaRepublican
incumbentinasolidlyRepublicandistrict,nosinglefactorlikelycausedhiseventualvictory.In
ordertoadjustforthis,severalfactorscommonlythoughttoaffectU.S.Houseraceswillbe

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examinedinturnbyconsideringtheirdirectimpact(ifany)ontherace,theirrelativesignificance
withinthe2008race,andtheirrelativesignificancewithinAmericanpoliticaltheory.Thispaper
proposesthattheuseandamountofeachcandidatescampaignfunds,thepublicperceptionof
thecandidateandhispositions,andvariousnationaltrendsareallfactorsthatshiftedthe2008
IdahoDistrict1raceinWaltMinnicksfavor.
WhyisitsoimportantthatWaltMinnick,aonetermrepresentativefromIdaho,wona
surprisevictoryin2008?Considerthis:outofthe435U.S.HouseofRepresentativedistrict
electionsin2014,only30electionsweretossups,havinganeven,5050chanceofgoing
eitherDemocraticorRepublican.Furthermore,inthe2012PresidentialElection,onlyeleven
statesweretossupsbycontrast,26statesweresolidlyDemocraticorRepublican,withthe
remainingthirteenstateseitherleaningorlikelyonepartyortheother(RealClearPolitics).In
anelectoralrealitywhereonlyafewdistrictchallengershaveafairshotatwinningaHouse
race,nevermindaHouseracewithanincumbentrunning,examiningthefactorsthatledtoa
challengervictoryagainstanincumbentinadistrictcloselyalignedwiththeincumbentsparty
couldbebeneficialforpotentialchallengersattemptingtodecidewhenthebesttimetorunis
andhowtocapitalizeonthatopportunity.
Furthermore,the2008District1electioncanactasacasestudyforpoliticalscientists
attemptingtoeitheraffirmexistingtheoriesontheimportanceofcertainfactorsinHouseraces
ortoprovideevidencefornewtheoriesexamininghowimportantthefactorsoffundsavailable
tochallengersandincumbents,thecandidatesplatformsandcharacter,andnationaltrendsare
bothindividuallyandrelativetoeachother.Whilethequestionunderconsiderationcanbyno
meansprovideageneraltheory,itcancertainlyprovideevidencetosupportorrefuteone.
Typically,thechallengerinaHouseraceisthecandidateinmostdesperateneedof
funds.AccordingtoGaryJacobson,between1972and201054%ofchallengersfailedtoriseat

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least$100,000,withonlyonecandidateinthatrangewinning(Jacobson53).However,inthe
District1raceWaltMinnickwasabletoraiseatotalof$2,606,356andspentallbut$6,403

ofit,whileBillSalionlyraised$1,178,118andspentallbut$9,582(OpenSecrets.org).Minnick
notonlyoutspentSalibyoneandahalfmilliondollars,healsobeganusingthatmoneymuch
earlierthanSali:thefirstproMinnickTVadairedinearlyAugust,whilethefirstproSaliadaired
inlateSeptember,sevenweekslater(Russell).Whenaskedaboutthesizeofhiscampaign
spending,Minnickrepliedthat,Youhavetospendmoremoneythananincumbenttobeathim,
everythingelsebeingequal.WhetherIhadtospendthatmuchornotwell,IguessIdid.I
didntwinbymuch.
Clearly,theMinnickcampaignconsciouslyconsideredcampaignspendingtobeavital
partoftheircampaignstrategies.Jacobsonagreesobtainingnamerecognitionandspreading
thecandidatesmessageisoneofthemostimportantpartsofanychallengerscampaign.The
amountofmoneytheMinnickcampaignraisedwasextremelybeneficial,givingthemearly
accesstoconstantadvertisementsinadistrictwheremostofthecampaignadsonTVforthe
HousecomefromWashingtoncandidates.
TheMinnickcampaignsuseofcampaignfinancescertainlyplayedaroleintheiroverall
victory.ThemoreinterestingquestioniswhetherornotBillSalisrelativelackoffundsand
advertisementsalsohadaroleinhisdefeat.Jacobsonpointsoutthatincumbentswhospend
largeamountsofmoneytendtodoworseinelections,asincumbentsalreadyhavethename
recognitionchallengersneedwhilespendinglargequantitiesofmoneymaybeindicativeofa
seriouschallenger(54).AssumingJacobsoniscorrect,thisleadstoseveralpossible
conclusions:eitherBillSalididnotfundraiseasextensivelybecauseheunderestimatedthe
Minnickcampaign,BillSalididnothavetheabilitytoraisemoremoney,orBillSalididnotfeel
heneededtoraisemoremoney.

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ThereisafairamountofevidencethatsuggestsBillSalisimplydidnotthinkheneeded
tofundraisethatmuchduetotheIdaho1stDistrictslonghistoryasaRepublicanstronghold,
almostallearlypoliticalcommentatorsassumedtheseatwouldgotoSali,withtheCook
PoliticalReportdeclaringSalisafeinJune(Scheck).Withallearlyindicationspointingtoan
easywinandhisreputationalreadyestablishedasanincumbent,Saliprobablydidnotfeelthe
needtolaythegroundworkforextensivefundraising.However,whentheneedtofundraisedid
becomeapparent,Salisextremepositionsandpoliticalcontroversiesmayhavemadeitmore
difficultforhimtoraisemoneythanistypicalforanincumbentcandidate,especiallyconsidering
2008wasapooryearforRepublicans.Furthermore,withadvantagessuchasfranking
privileges,ahistoricallyredvoterbase,andacompetitiveamountofcampaignfunds,Salimay
nothavefelttheneedtomatchMinnicks2.5milliondollarwarchest.Eitherway,under
Jacobsonsmodel,Saliraisingmoremoneywouldnothaveaffectedtheracemuch.
DonaldGreenandJonathanS.Krasno,however,disagreedwithJacobsons
assessmentoftheeffectivenessoffundraisingforembattledincumbents.Theyreexaminedthe
same1978HouseelectionsthatJacobsonanalyzedusingalessrigidandlinearmodelwhile
factoringinchallengerpoliticalqualityandconcludedthatmoneyspentbyincumbentshada
significantlygreatereffectthanJacobsonhadstated(898).Usingtheirinterpretationofthe
data,SaliwouldhavehadamuchgreaterchanceofdefeatingWaltMinnickifhehadbeenable
toraiseanequalorgreateramountthanMinnick.ConsideringhowclosetheracewasMinnick
wonbylessthanapercentagepointSaliwouldhavestoodamuchbetterchanceofbeing
reelectedifhehadspentmoremoneyevenunderJacobsonsmodelofdiminishingreturns,
andespeciallysowhenGreensandKrasnosfindingsaretakenintoaccount.
MoneywasnottheonlyfactorthatledtoMinnickswin,however.Inthenextmidterm
election,WaltMinnick,nowtheincumbent,wouldbedefeatedbychallengerRaulLabradorbya

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marginof10points,despiteraising$2,649,048toLabradors$726,288(OpenSecrets.org).
Otherfactorswereinvolvedinthe2010election,ofcourse,butitneverthelessindicatesthat
moneywasnottheonly,orevennecessarilythemostimportant,factorinvolvedinthe2008
election.AnothermajorissueduringtheMinnickSalielectionwasthepublicperceptionofBill
Sali.
Salihadpreviouslyestablishedareputationasacombativepoliticianduringhissixteen
yeartenureintheIdahoHouse.MikeSimpson,thecurrentIdahoDistrict2representativeanda
formerSpeakeroftheIdahoHouse,oncestatedthathewouldliketothrowSalioffthethird
flooroftheCapital.Furthermore,in2006,SpeakerNewcomb,whosucceededSimpsonas
leaderoftheIdahoHouse,saidofSaliThatidiotisjustanidiot,beforeadjourningtheHouse
inresponsetoSalisconstantreiterationofafalselinkbetweenbreastcancerandabortion.
Perhapsmostforebodingly,hisreputationwassopoorthatacoalitionofRepublicanbusiness
ownersestablishedaRepublicansforGrantgroupduringSalis2006electionagainst
DemocratLarryGrant(Popkey).WhileSimpsonwouldlatersupportSaliduringhisHouse
races,SalihadasimmeringRepublicanrebelliononhishandsprioreventoenteringCongress.
SalialsogainednationalattentionduetohiscommentsconcerningtheHinduprayer
offeredbyRajanZedandtheelectionofKeithEllison,whowasthefirstMuslimmemberof
Congress.SaliclaimedthatthoseeventswerenotenvisionedbytheFoundingFathersand
thatHinduprayerscreatesproblemsforthelongevityofthiscountry(Shakir).Inresponsetoa
Democraticbillattemptingtoraisethefederalminimumwage,Salifamouslyproposedabillto
weakengravityinanefforttoreduceobesityworldwidehisreasoningwasthatattemptingto
adjustmarketequilibriumwageswaslikeattemptingtoadjustthelawsofnature(Howell).Fora
Houserepresentativewhoonlyservedtwoyears,Saliquicklygarnerednotorietyforpolitical
stuntsandideologicalextremism.

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TheinternaldivisionsSalisstatementsandpersonalitycausedwithintheIdaho
RepublicanParty,evidenteveninhissuccessful2006Houserun,wereclearlycriticalfactorsin
Minnicks2008victory.AsimportantasSalismisstepswere,Minnickseffortstopresenthimself
asasensible,conservativebusinessmanwhojusthappenedtobeaDemocratweremoreso.
MinnickranadsattemptingtodistancehimselffromtheDemocraticpartywhiledrawingthe
supportofRepublicans,likeoneentitledRepublicansforMinnick,whichfeaturedfive
proMinnickRepublicansdiscussingMinnicksconservativerecordwhilecriticizingSali
(Russell).WhenaskedbyRobynNancefromKXLY4torespondtoBillSalischaracterizationof
himastooliberalforIdaho,Minnickrespondedbydenyingthisandlistinghisconservative
credentials,statingthat,ImaconservativeDemocrat,Ivebeenabusinessman,Imgoingto
beamemberoftheBlueDogcoalitionifImelected,theanswerisnotmoregovernmentor
morespending.
ThenecessityofthemoderateRepublicanvotefortheMinnickcampaignwasperhaps
bestillustratedbythe2008Idahopresidentialresults.Statewide,RepublicanPresidential
candidateJohnMcCainreceived61.5%ofthevotecomparedtothencandidateBarack
Obamas36.1%,adifferenceof25.4%(Idaho,ElectionDivision).Ifthesepercentagescouldbe
treatedasroughestimatesforIdahopartysupportamongstvotersin2008,thenMinnick
requiredatleast14%ofvoterswhowouldotherwisesupportaRepublicancandidatetosupport
him.AsMinnickdideventuallyovercomethispartygap,thoughbyonlyasmallpercentage,itis
evidentthatSalisdivisivepoliticscoupledwithMinnicksstrenuousappealstoconservative
votershelpedtilttheelectioninMinnicksfavor.
Minnicksconservative,bipartisanmessageaimedatdrawingawayRepublicans
dissatisfiedwithBillSalialongwithhisextensivecampaignfundswhichallowedhimtobring
thatmessagetothepublicwhilegarneringnamerecognitionarelikelytobethemaincausal

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factorsfortheDemocraticwininIdahos2008District1race.However,theelectionwasstill
extremelyclose,withagapofonly1.2%betweenSaliandMinnick.Consideringthis,itis
possiblethatotherfactorsalsoplayedaroleindeterminingwhichcandidatereceivedthoselast
fewcrucialvotes.Theadditionalsetoffactorswhichcouldhavealsoaffectedtheraceincludes
thenationaltrendsinthe2008generalelection.
AsThomasM.HolbrookobservedinAugustof2008,the2008generalelectionswould
gopoorlyfortheRepublicans,citingGeorgeW.Bushsconsistentlylowapprovalratingsanda
plungingeconomy(709).Asitturnedout,hewasrightalongwiththepresidency,Democrats
gained21Houseseatsand8Senateseat,continuingtoexpandtheirleadfollowingthe2006
election(FederalElectionCommision).AnationaltrendtowardstheDemocraticpartyisnot,of
course,justificationinandofitselfforaDemocraticwininasolidlyreddistrict.Ifthatwereso,
incumbentswouldloseelectionswithfarmorefrequencythantheycurrentlydo.However,a
nationaltrendonewayoranothercouldaffectacloseelection,especiallyoneinwhichtheparty
outoffavornationallytypicallywinsinthedistrict,bymakingitlessegregiousforaparty
membertovotefortheoppositioncandidate.
Whetherornotthiswastrueforthe2008District1electionisdifficulttodetermine
empirically.Jacobson,though,wasabletoshowinhisexaminationofHouseelectionsbetween
1972and2010thatinyearswherenationaltrendsfavorthechallengersparty,challengers
spendingmorethan$1millionwonmorethanhalfofthetime(53).Minnick,whofellunderthat
classificationinthe2008election,fitsJacobsonspattern,lendingsupporttotheideathat
nationaltrendshadsomeinfluenceintheDistrict1election.
Nationaltrendsalsotendtoaffecthowmuchmoneyanygivenchallengerisableto
raise.ComparinghowmuchmoneytheDemocraticchallengerwasabletoraisein2004as
opposedto2006or2008givesanindicationofhowmuchthenationalanddistricttrendsaffect

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fundraising.CandidateNaomiPrestonfacedthepopularthenRep.ButchOtterin2004,ayear
inwhichRepublicanswonthePresidencysheraisedonly$15,205incomparisontoOtters
$724,712.Despitethat,LarryGrantin2006raisedover$700,000whileWaltMinnickraised
$2.6millionin2008(OpenSecrets.org).Ofcourse,nationaltrendsfavoringDemocratswerenot
theonlyfactorsinthe2006and2008electionsGrantwascontestinganopenseatwhile
Minnickfacedavulnerableincumbent.Despitethat,consideringhowRepublicanDistrict1is,
thenationaltrendslikelyhadsomeinfluenceinGrantandMinnicksfundraisingabilityas
contributorsclearlybelievedtherewassomehopeofaDemocraticvictoryinboththoseyears.
AnotherpossibleadvantageMinnickhadwasthesimplefactthatthe2008electionwas
aPresidentialelection,notamidtermelection,leadingtoahigherturnout.61.13%ofvotingage
adultsand77.3%ofregisteredvotersparticipatedinthe2008Idahogeneralelection,as
comparedto43.5%ofpotentialvotersand60.0%ofregisteredvotersinIdahos2004general
election(ElectionDivision).Thisissignificant,asconventionalwisdomandsomestudies
suggestthatincreasesinturnout,evenslightly,canhavemajoreffectsonelections(Radcliff
259).However,somepoliticalscientistscontesttherelationshipbetweenhighturnoutand
Democraticvictoriesonmethodologicalandempiricalgrounds(Groffman357)(Highton179).
Nonetheless,consideringthesmallmarginsofvictoriesinthisparticularelection,ahigher
turnoutasaresultofthePresidentialelectionmayhaveplayedsomesmallroleinthe
Democraticvictory.
Insummary,thereisconclusiveevidencethattheamountofmoneyeachcandidatehad
available,thecharacter,ideology,andpublicperceptionofeachcandidate,andvariousnational
trendsimpactedtheraceinamannerfavoringWaltMinnickwhileaffectingBillSaliinaneutral
ornegativefashion.Furthermore,thesefactorsnotonlybenefittedMinnick,theywerealsothe
causalreasonsexplainingwhyMinnickwontheelection.BillSalisvulnerabilityasacandidate

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isperhapsthesinglemostcompellingreasonforMinnicksvictory,asitimpactedtheraceboth
directly,bycausingotherwiseRepublicanvoterstovoteforMinnick,andindirectly,by
encouragingdonorstosupportaDemocraticcandidateagainstaRepublicanincumbentina
solidlyRepublicandistrict.
WhileSalisfailingsasaRepresentativeandapoliticianallowedtheracetobecome
competitive,Minnickcouldneverhavewonoveraconservativeelectoratewithouthisown
conservativecredentialsandacampaignthatemphasizedthosecredentials.Minnickhappened
tobetherightcandidatetotakeadvantageofasplitwithinRepublicanvoters,managingtopeel
offjustenoughsupporttosecureavictory.Minnickscampaignmessagewouldhavecometo
naught,ofcourse,withouthisextensivefunding,outspendingSaliby$1.5millionand2006
candidateLarryGrantby$1.9million.WhileSalicertainingraisedenoughmoneytomakethe
racecompetitive,theslowstarthehadinbothfundraisingandadvertisinggaveMinnicka
chancetogainearlymomentumSalineverovercamethesevenweekgapbetweenthe
beginningofMinnicksTVadsandthebeginningofhisown.Furthermore,theargument
presentedbyGreenandKrasnoinoppositiontoJacobsonstheorysuggeststhatincumbent
spendingcananddoeshaveasignificantimpactonreelection,implyingthatifSalihadbeen
abletoraisemoremoney,hemayhavebeenmoresuccessful.Eitherway,Salishouldhave
soughtanyadvantageinwhatwouldturnouttobeaverycloserace.
NationaltrendssuchasgeneraldisapprovalofPresidentGeorgeW.Bushspolicies,
concernsaboutaspiralingeconomy,highvoterturnout,andageneralmovementtowards
Democraticcandidatesplayedtheleastimportantroleamongstthefactorsexaminedin
determiningtheelection.However,thatisnottosaytheyhadnorolewhileitisdifficultto
determineempiricallytheextenttowhichDistrict1votersdecidedchoseacandidatebasedon
nationalissues,ageneraltrendfavoringDemocratscertainlydidnotharmMinnick,andcould

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havepossiblyallowedIdahoRepublicanstobemoreinclinedtosplittheirticket.Additional
fundsforMinnickasaresultofthenationwideDemocratictrendwerelikelyinconsequential
2006wasabiggeryearforHouseDemocratsandthenchallengerLarryGrantalsohadthe
traditionaladvantageofrunninginanopenrace,yetMinnickmanagedtoraisealmostfour
timesGrantsmoney.Theeffectofahigherturnoutinelectionsisdebated,withsomeanalysts
claimingDemocratshaveanadvantagewithhigherturnoutandothersclaiminghigherturnouts
wouldhavelittleornoimpactonelectionseitherway,arelativelyhighturnoutdidnothurt
Minnickandprobablyhelpedhim,possiblyprovidingthefinalvotesneededtogainaplurality.
Byfocusingalmostexclusivelyonthethreefactorsindicatedinthehypothesis,this
papermayhavefailedtoadequatelyinvestigateotherpossiblereasonsforWaltMinnicks
triumph,suchasapossiblesurgeinthequantityofDemocratsinDistrict1orthe
effectsofsocialmediauponthecampaign.Moreover,theevidencepresentedwhennational
trendswereexaminedmayhavebeentoobroadand/orvaguelydefined,whilelackingin
specific,observabledata.Thispaperalsodidnotdelveextensivelyintospecificposition
supportedbySaliasaCongressman,nordiditexaminehowSalisviewscomparedtothe
mainstreamGOPinIdaho,whichcouldhaveincludeddeviationsseriousenoughtowarrant
supportforaconservativeDemocrat.
ThenaturalextensionofthistopicwouldbetoexaminewhyWaltMinnicklostthe2010
District1electiontoRaulLabrador.However,asthepaperwasprimarilyfocusedonexamining
howaonetermDemocraticRepresentativemanagedtobeatanincumbentinastrongly
Republicandistrict,anotherpossibleareaofinterestwouldbeexamininghowRep.Jim
MathesonofUtah,whoretiredin2014,managedtowinelectioninthemostRepublicandistrict
heldbyaDemocratsixtimes.Thiswouldallowforanexaminationofhowelectionsplayoutfor
arepresentativewhoisalwaysvulnerabletosomedegree.

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WaltMinnickwasluckyinthe2008electioninmanyways.Hisopponentwasoffensive,
hatedbymemberofhisownparty,andcouldeasilybeportrayedasineffective,anadvantage
onlycompoundedbynationaltrendsthatwereinhisfavorandSalisstatusasaoneterm
representativewhowasnotyetentrenchedinthedistrict.BillSaliprovidedtheopening,but
Minnickcapitalizedonthatopeningwithafiscallyconservative,centristmessagethatappealed
tomanyIdahoRepublicans,allowinghimtopickawayatSalisvoterbase.Ultimately,these
rogueRepublicanscombinedwith1stDistrictDemocratstoprovidearazorthinvictoryfor
Minnick.ThelessontobelearnedfromMinnick?Inordertowinadistrictalignedwiththe
oppositeparty,avulnerablecandidate,money,andtheabilitytogarnervotesfrombothparties
isessential.

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