The Effect of Sea Level

Pressure on Seismic Activity

Rubab Hyder
Niles North High School

Table of Contents
Acknowledgements.....2

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Purpose & Hypothesis.....3
Review of Literature...4
Materials... ........12
Procedure.........13
Variables....14
Data........15
Data Analysis.............31
Statistical Analysis.........33
Experimental Error....34
Conclusion.35
Reference List.....37

Acknowledgements

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I would like to thank Mrs. Camel for helping me succeed through my journey into scientific
exploration and encouraging me throughout the stages of my project. I would also like to thank my family
and friends for their continuous support.

Purpose
The purpose of my experimentation is to determine if there is any dramatic increase or
decrease in sea level pressure before or after an earthquake.

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Hypothesis
If an earthquake occurs, the day before the earthquake will encompass a higher sea level
pressure (10 millibars difference) than after the earthquake, which should decrease by 10
millibars.

Rationale: Prior research that has been discontinued from the 1980s has shown
atmospheric pressure could trigger seismic activity [TAP, 1988]. There has been a general
concern from the public about rising sea levels and their respective impact on natural disasters.
This leads me into researching the sea level pressure within the United States.

Review Of Literature
The U.S Geological Survey estimated that several million earthquakes occur in the world
each year. The NEIC now locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about 20,000 a year (USGS,
2012). With this many earthquakes happening just beneath our feet, it makes it our duty to find
out just how they occur. Intense earthquake that has occurred has left the city in shambles. It is
hard to create a life after such a horrendous event. Many are poor and starving, unable to find
their belongings. An earthquake forces the government to spend a copious amount of money

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trying to rebuild a city, a neighbourhood, a whole state. The amount of lives lost during an
earthquake is unfathomable and horrendous. Thus, early detection of earthquakes can reduce
deficit spending and save money and lives. Earthquakes can happen spontaneously and many
during the year occur during times of ceaseless rain. Rain occurs when clouds are formed
overhead, allowing for small drops of condensed water (USGS, 2012). Many factors can play a
role in earthquakes; rain is just one to examine.
An earthquake can be defined as a sudden violent shaking or trembling on earth.
Earthquakes can occur because of other natural events, such as landslides or volcanoes.
Earthquakes, and the faults on which they occur, are thought to be an example of a complex
physical system that exhibits chaotic behavior (Sykes, Shaw, Sholz, 1999). Most earthquakes are
so severe and aggressive that they are only recorded by high tech meters. Out of the 500,000,
only about 20% can be felt by humans. And of the 20% (100,000), only an average of 19 per year
cause major damage (Katy, 2012). An earthquake usually happens when two surfaces of the
earth slip against each other. The surface where the slip occurs is called the fault plane or
colloquially, the fault. Below the earths surfacewhere the earthquake occursis the hypocenter
(Wald, 2012). The hypocenter is critical to many things, one of which includes the movement of
different materials shifting back and forth. Above the earths surface is called the epicenter. The
epicenter and hypocenter simply help address movement above and below the earthquake. Figure
1 shows a visual of the epicenter and hypocenter and the interconnection.

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Figure 1: Visual of earthquake points (Wald, 2012)

Occasionally, earthquakes have foreshocks. Foreshocks are simply smaller earthquakes
that happen pre-earthquake. Foreshocks typically prep up a large wave of ground-shaking
danger. The earthquake itself is called the mainshock. Usually, mainshocks have aftershocks,
based on the size of the mainshock it can lead to aftershocks that continue for weeks, months,
and even years after

the mainshock (Wald, 2012).

Figure 2: Layers of an earthquake (Wald, 2012).

There are many myths of what causes earthquakes and how they occur. In order to
understand how they occur, it is critical to know the earths layers. The earth has four major
layers: the inner and outer core, the mantle, and the crust as shown in Figure 2 (Wald, 2012). The

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two major layers that epitomize the skin of the surface are the crust and the top mantle. However,
they are not combined, they are simply some of the many layers covering the surface of the
earth. These puzzle pieces continuously bump against each other slowly; they are known as
tectonic plates. Tectonic plates have plate boundaries, which are the edges of the plates. The plate
boundaries consist of many faults. As stated before, faults are locations of where slips occur.
Usually, the edges of the plates are rough, so they result in getting stuck while the rest of the
plate still moves. Eventually, when the plate has moved enough, the edges will unstick on one of
the faults and seismic activity occurs.
A common result of an earthquake is a simultaneous ground shake. When the edges of the
faults are stuck, the rest of the block continues to move; it contributes to the potential energy
being stored instead of being used to move. While the force of the blocks triumphs friction of the
fault lines, the potential energy is released. This releasement of energy moves outward from the
faults in every direction vicariously through seismic waves (Wald, 2013). The ripples on a pond
are a way to describe the movement of the waves. This whole cycle causes the vivacious seismic
waves shake the ground beneath our feet.
Thanks to advanced technology, seismologists can record earthquakes through
seismographs. The resultant data is known as a seismogram. The seismogram rests on a bed
embedded in the ground along with a heavy weight that is hanging free. When an earthquake is
about to occur, the embedded seismogram shakes but the heavy weight does not. The heavy
weight does not move because of its inertia (the resistance to any change in the state of motion.)
This absorbs and records all the movement. The differing distance between the weight and the
seismogram allow for a validative recording from the motionless part.

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Not only do seismograms help record results, they can locate where the earthquake is.
Seismograms allow researchers to see S waves and P waves; both are incredibly critical to
understanding the location. S and P waves are two waves that help locate where the earthquake
might be. P waves are known to be faster than S waves. To understand them better, one can
compare them to lightning and thunder. Light travels much faster than sound and during a
thunderstorm usually one sees the lightning and then hears the thunder. If one is closer to the
lightning, thunder will boom right after it. If one is farther away from the lighting, usually a few
seconds pass by before it is heard (Wald, 2012). The further one is from the storm, the longer it
will take to exchange between the lightning and the thunder. P waves are like lightning and the S
waves are like the thunder. The P waves travel faster and shake the ground. If you are close to the
earthquake, the P and S waves will appear in a domino effect but if one is far away--there will be
time between the two. Looking at the two waves helps scientists determine how far away an
earthquake was. Unfortunately, the two waves create ambiguity with the exact location.
Scientists usually use a method called triangulation to pinpoint exact locations. It takes three
seismographs to locate an earthquake, like the three sides of a triangle.

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Figure 3: Location of The Epicenter (Wald, 2012)

Magnitude is a measure of the size of the event, derived from distance-adjusted
indications of the amplitude from the ground (Vere Jones, 1995). An earthquakes magnitude is
dependent on a myriad of things but most importantly the size of the fault and the amount of slip
(also known as movement on the fault plane.) The seismogram usually indicates the scale of the
earthquake. Small squiggly lines means a small earthquake took place while large delta-like
waves on a seismogram indicate a larger scale earthquake (Wald, 2012).
The most common way to measure an earthquakes magnitude is to use the Richter Scale.
The Richter Scale, created by Charles F. Richter in 1934, uses a formula with components of a
the amplitude of the largest wave recorded on a type of seismometer and distance between
earthquake and the seismometer (Mtu, 1992). Mathematically, magnitudes measurements are
based on a logarithmic scale (the base of 10). In simpler terms, each real number on the
magnitude scale equals the amplitude of the ground motion recorded by a seismograph times ten.
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Using the richter scale, a magnitude of five would result in ten times the level of shaking as a
magnitude of four.
Earthquake prediction has been a huge mystery since the beginning. Many seismologists
have tried to predict earthquakes. From an examination of the displacement of the ground surface
which started from the 1906 earthquake, Henry Fielding Reid, Professor of Geology at Johns
Hopkins University, decided the earthquake must have involved an "elastic rebound" of
previously stored elastic stress. This gradual increase and release of stress and strain is now
referred to as the "elastic rebound theory" of earthquakes. Reid coined the Elastic Rebound
Theory (USGS, 2010). Later, In the 1970s seismologists were positive that within a decade they
would be successful at predicting earthquakes. One well-known successful earthquake prediction
was for the Haicheng, China earthquake of 1975, when an evacuation warning was issued the
day before an 7.3 earthquake. But unfortunately, most earthquakes do not have such obvious
precursors like migration of animals, or rising ground level. Despite their success in 1975, there
was no evacuation of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, magnitude 7.6, which caused an about
250,000 fatalities (Weimer, 2014).
Hypothetically, all fifty states and the District of Columbia are highly susceptible to
earthquakes, although risks are different across the country and within individual states (Folger,
2013). Most earthquakes are prevalent in the western United States, Figure 4 shows specifically
California, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska and Hawaii are mostly targeted.

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Figure 4: Earthquake Hazards In The U.S (Folger, 2012)

California has a huge population and its infrastructure is at risk more than any other state
because of the states seismic activity within the borders of the Pacific Ocean. According to a
report released on April 14, 2008, California has a 99% chance of experiencing a 6.7 magnitude
(or larger) earthquake in the next years. California has the most earthquake occurrences in the
U.S, making it a state suited for observations.

Sea level pressure patterns are events that one could closely analyze. Sea level pressure
and its impact in different countries is very important. In many South Asian countries, some have
speculated sea level pressure to foreshadow the event. If it is true that sea level pressure can
marginally reduce the unpredictability of an earthquake, it is helpful to look into the correlation.
Atmospheric pressure is the pressure caused by the weight of the atmosphere. At sea level, it has
a mean value of one atmosphere but reduces with increasing altitude. It is also called barometric
pressure. In 1988, an experiment signaled that atmospheric pressure could help predict
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earthquakes but was later discontinued (TAP, 1988). There would be an endless list of benefits:
more lives saved, less money spent and a much safer community. As more earthquakes occur,
developing a method of predictions is critical.

Materials

Internet Access
USGS Earthquake Database
NOAA Database
Calendar
Microsoft Office Excel
Calculator
Paired T-Test Calculator Online

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Procedure
1. Search for earthquakes apparent in the years 2005 - 2015 in USGS Earthquake
database.
2. Record all earthquakes.
3. Search NOAA Global Summary Of The Day for Sea level pressure data.
4. Sea level pressure collected should span from 12 days before earthquake and 12
days after.
5. Use Calendar and calculator to find correct 25 day span (including earthquake)
6. Search NOAA Global Summary Of The Day for Sea Level Pressure.
7. Sea Level Pressure data should span from 12 days before earthquake to 12 days
after.
8. Insert data into excel and visualize graphs.
9. Once graphed, take the mean values of all the data before the earthquake and
compare it to the mean value after the earthquake through a paired t-test.

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Variables
Independent: Sea Level Pressure
Dependent: Earthquake location
Controlled: Program to record data (Microsoft Excel), and years recorded (2005-2015).

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Data for Sea Level Pressure

*Vertical blue line indicates day 12, the day of the earthquake.

Graph 1. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 2. 25

Days Of Sea Level

Pressure

During an

Earthquake,

2005-2016

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Graph 3.
Sea Level
During an
2005-2016

25 Days Of
Pressure
Earthquake,

Graph 4. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 5. 25
Pressure
2005-2016

Days Of Sea Level

During an Earthquake,

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Graph 6. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 7.
Level
During
2005-

25 Days Of Sea
Pressure
an Earthquake,
2016

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Graph 8. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 9. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 10. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 11.
Pressure
2005-2016

25 Days Of Sea Level

During an Earthquake,

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Graph 12. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 13. 25
Pressure
Earthquake,

Days Of Sea Level

During an
2005-2016

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Graph 14. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 15.
Level

25 Days Of Sea
Pressure During an
Earthquake, 2005-

2016

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Graph 16. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 17.
Pressure
2005-2016

25 Days Of Sea Level

During an Earthquake,

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Graph 18. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 19. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 20. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 21. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

Graph 22. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Graph 23.
Sea Level
During an
2005-2016

25 Days Of
Pressure
Earthquake,

Graph 23. 25 Days Of Sea Level Pressure During an Earthquake, 2005-2016

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Additional Data
Richter Values for Earthquakes from 2005-2016

Data Analysis
4,093 data points were analyzed and looked at for their
significance. Data points include date, richter value, city and state, and sea level pressure. The
vertical blue line on each graph shows Day 12, the day of the earthquake. From 2005 to 2016,
the sea level pressure of the day for 25 days (12 days before the earthquake and 12 days after)
was analyzed. Every city was located through the NOAA data online. Data was separated by
states and then those states were separated alphabetically. After the separation, I converted them
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into visual graphs to see if sea level pressure increased prior or after the earthquake within
twelve days of the seismic activity.
Graph 1 displays 7 cities in Alaska. Nanwalek, Atka, Gustavus and Anchorage all have an
increase of 5-10 millibars after the earthquake. From days 3-9, the general trend is a high sea
level pressure before the earthquake and a subsequent decrease in Anchorage, Amatignak and
Willow. Graph 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, and 24 all validate
hypothesis I of a general higher sea level pressure before the earthquake compared to after the
earthquake. Graph 2 with Arizona is crucial in its evidence of a spike of nearly 12 millibars
before the day of the earthquake and a decrease of 17 millibars after the earthquake subsided.
Graph 3 with Arkansas displays a decrease of sea level pressure in every city from Blytheville to
Greenbrier. Each city decreased from at least 15 millibars overall. This phenomenon is key to
understanding seismic activity. All graphs for California except Graph 7 for California had cities
that followed the pattern of a huge decrease post-seismic activity. Graph 12 for Kailu Kona,
Hawaii validates my hypothesis as well of a decrease after day 12. A huge drop signalling an
aftershock with a lower sea level pressure surrounding Hawaii happens. Idaho, Graph 13, is
important because of the pattern: sea level pressure gains momentum leading up to day 12 and
then decreases drastically post-earthquake. The change of 30 millibars is significantly higher
than other earthquakes. Graphs 16-19, 21-22, and 24 exemplify a similar pattern and trend.
Graphs include the states: Kansas, Maine, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas.
Some states exhibit chaotic behavior, steering away from the general trend of other
earthquakes. Graphs 9, 11, 15, and 23 have unusual phenom. Two cities out of the plethora in
California, seems to increase after the earthquake. Graph 9 with Alum Rock, California decreases
after 3 days of the earthquake. It shows the earthquake subsided after that epoch. The same can

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be said with San Jose, California. Graph 15 is an outlier, instead of a decrease before, it increases
significantly, of 20 millibars after the earthquake. It could be because of a possible aftershock
that took place. South Carolina exemplifies that behavior as well.
While some of the data points are more skewed in their sea level pressure, they still
appear to all be following the same patterns and the same highs and lows within their respective
years. Furthermore, the number of cities experiencing an overall increase/decrease in sea level
pressure during the 25 days, are affected by the earthquake. Out of the 89 cities, 95% of cities
experienced an increase/decrease of at least 10 millibars post-earthquake or pre-earthquake. Out
of the 95%, 92% continued to experience an overall decrease after the 12th day (the day of the
earthquake).

Statistical Analysis

In this experiment, I conducted a paired T-test. A T-test determines whether the means of
two groups are statistically different from each other. The paired t-test for statistical significance
is used to estimate the probability that the relationship observed in the data occurred only by
chance; the probability that the variables are really unrelated in the population. They can be used
to filter out unpromising hypotheses. For this paired t-test, I observed the data before the
earthquake and the data after to examine the correlation coefficient: known as the p-value.

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When taking the means of the two data sets and putting them into an online paired t-test
calculate, my p-value was .0988. This means there is an estimated 9% chance this data is not
statistically significant.

Experimental Error

Some experimental errors include the mistake of different numbers being recorded in the
wrong cell in Microsoft Excel. The sea level pressure could have also depended on other factors
such as a platonic history of stability in some states of naturally warm or cool areas. Sea level
pressure can also be anthropogenic, making pressure controlled entirely of human impact.

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Conclusion

The purpose of this experimentation was to determine if sea level pressure could be used
to predict seismic activity in states that hit by earthquakes in the last 11 years. This knowledge
could potentially help scientists and seismologists predict and prepare for earthquake
disturbances, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The hypothesis predicted that a if an earthquake
occurs, the sea level pressure will encompass a higher sea level pressure (10 millibars difference)
than after the earthquake, which should decrease by 10 millibars. The second hypothesis

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predicted if an earthquake occurs, there will be a higher percentage of rain (more than .5 inches)
with earthquakes that occur in the United Stations from 2005 to 2015. Both hypotheses were
made because geological properties and past research stipulate that earthquakes could potentially
affect physical properties and weather properties. Many people also generally wonder if the rise
of sea levels and sea level pressures are changing the global shape of continents.
The experimentation consisted of looking through the U.S Geological Survey databases
to observe, mark, record, and analyze all of the aforementioned phenom and their respective sea
level pressures in cities. 4,093 data points were recorded and analyzed. From that, pressure and
during earthquakes were graphed visually to see in each state.
Out of the 89 cities analyzed, 85 cities displayed a drastic increase/decrease of sea level
pressure 12 days after or before the earthquake. Earthquakes, foreshocks and aftershocks, and
geological plate movements are important now more than ever, as science and technology
continue to progress, and seismological information becomes more prevalent, predicting
earthquakes and preventing disasters can help the future.

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References
Associated Press. (1988). Air Patterns May Trigger Earthquakes, Scientist Says
Retrieved from http://articles.latimes.com/1988-05-15/news/mn-4405_1_air-pressure-patterns
Hainz et all. (2010). Evidence for Rain-triggered Earthquake Activity
Retrieved from http://www.geophysik.uni-muenchen.de/~igel/PDF/hainzletal_grl_2006.pdf
Folger, Peter. (2013) Earthquakes: Risk, Detection, Warning, and Signal
Retrieved from https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33861.pdf.
Lisa, Wald. (2012) All Earthquake Materials.
Retrieved from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/RockShakeyGround.pdf.
LYNN SYKES, SHAW, CHRISTOPHER SCHOLZ. (1999) Rethinking Earthquake Predictions
Retrieved from http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~shaw/publications/SShawS99.pdf.
Katy, Peters. (2012) Earthquakes: Movement of the Earths Crust
Retrieved from: www.k12reader.com/reading-comprehension/GR7_Earthquake.pdf
Mtu. (1992) How are the magnitudes of earthquakes measured?
Retrieved from http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/intensity.html
Nasa. (1998) Precipitation predictions
Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/62321main_ICS_Precipitation.pdf
USGS. (2012) Reids Elastic Rebound Theory
Retrieved from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1906/18april/reid.php
Wiemer. (2014) Earthquake Statistics and Earthquake Prediction Research

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Retrieved from www.physics.buffalo.edu/phy410.../wiemer-earthquake-prediction.pdf

Vere-jones, David. (2014) Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk
Retrieved from www.forecastingprinciples.com/paperpdf/Vere-Jones-forecastingearthquakes.pdf.

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