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3. 38
4. 57
5. 68
6. 81
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9. 115
10. XXI 123
11. 150

1950 - 2005 160

174
SUMMARY 178
182
189
191

1. , 1950 - 1989 . 59
2. 1950 - 1989
. 61

 3. .

1989 - 2000 . ( %) 62
4.
1990 - 2000 . 69
5.

1999 . 1990 - 1999 . (1989 = 100) 78

6. 1989 - 2000 . (
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7. 2000 - 2004(5) ., (
) 2004(5) . (1989=100 2000 = 100) 125
8. 1999 2003(4) . (

) 126
9. 2001 - 2004(5) .
130

10.

XXI . 133
11.

148

1. 2000 .
(1989=100) 25
2. 1990 - 1999 . (1989=100) 77
3. XX . 118
4. XX . 119
5.1. 2001 - 2050 .
134
5.2. 2001 - 2050 .
135
5.3. 2001 - 2050 .
136
5.4. 2001 - 2050 .
137
6. 146

7. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004
.) 161

 8. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004

.) 162
9. (1953 - 2005 .) 163
10. (1950 - 1992 .)
(1993 - 2005 .) 164
11. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004
.) 165
12. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004
.) 166
13. (1950 - 2005 .) 167
14. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004
.) 168
15. (1951 - 2005 .) 169
16. (1950 - 1992 .)
(1993 - 2005 .) 170
17. (1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004
.) 171
18. (1950 - 1988 .)
(1989 - 2004 .) 172
19. (1951 - 2005 .) 173

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1999.

, : Blanchard (1997), Kolodko
(1999), Kornai (2000), Lavigne (1999).
30
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. , 1978, 1986 . (IMF, 2000b).
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).
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51
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52
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, ,
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53
- ). - ^.
, , , ,
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 ,
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,
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. 1944 . -
, , , ,
^ Institute of International Finance (Washington),

- , - 1991 - 2000 .
160 . 20 .
1999 - 2000 ., 1998 . (.: .
// . 2000. N 48. 1 . . 4).
54
. , , , .
, ,
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.

(McKinnon, 1991).
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2000d),
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(Chan-Lau, Chen, 1998). ,
,

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55
^ - , , . , , ,
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- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),
- African Development Bank (AfDB) , , - Asian
Development Bank (ADB).
56
4

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, . , 50- 80- .,
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-, , ,
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57
, . ,
( ),
.
.
(Bauer, 1978; Kolodko, 1976,
1986). ,
( 1).
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, , . .
, .
< - > (Nuti, 1989). , , shortageflation (Kolodko, McMahon, 1987),
< - > (Kolodko, 1986b, 1990).
(Kornai, 1986). , ,
.
-, ,
. , , , . -
,
.
,
.
shortageflation , 58

 1
, 1950 - 1989 .
/ , (%)
(; %; / )

; ; ;
1953 - 1956; 6,5; -;
1957 - 1959; 14,0; +;
1960 - 1963; 6,0; -;
1964 - 1967; 9,1; +;
1968 - 1971; 7,4; -;
1972 - 1975; 8,3; +;
1976 - 1980; 6,4; -;
1981 - 1985; 3,5; -;
1986 - 1988; 5,2; +;
1989; 0,5; -;

1950 - 1952; 10,0; ;

1953 - 1956; 6,5; -;
1957 - 1961; 7,4; +;
1962 - 1965; 0,8; -;
1966 - 1969; 7,2; +;
1970 - 1975; 5,3; -;
1976 - 1978; 4,7; -;
1979 - 1984; 1,8; -;
1985 - 1988; 2,4; +;
1989; 1,9; -;

1950 - 1952; 18,0; ;

1953 - 1956; 6,7; -;
1957 - 1959; 8,7; +;
1960 - 1963; 2,2; -;
1964 - 1969; 5,0; +;
1970 - 1975; 5,7; +;
1976 - 1986; 4,4; -;
1987 - 1988; 3,3; -;
1989; 2,5; -;

1950 - 1953; 9,8;

1954 - 1957; 9,1;
1958 - 1963; 5,4;
1964 - 1968; 7,1;
1969 - 1970; 3,7;
1971 - 1975; 9,8;
1976 - 1978; 4,9;
1979 - 1982; 6,5;
1983 - 1985; 4,9;
1986 - 1988; 3,9;
1989; 0,2; -;

;
-;
-;
+;
-;
+;
-;
+;
-;
-;

; ; ;
1951 - 1953; 17,0; ;
1954 - 1956; 5,0; -;
1957 - 1959; 10,6; +;

1960 - 1962; 7,6; -;

1963 - 1966; 10,5; +;
1967 - 1970; 7,0; -;
1971 - 1976; 11,5; +;
1977 - 1979; 7,7; -;
1980 - 1984; 4,0; -;
1985 - 1988; 5,4; +;
1989; -5,8; -;

; ; ;
1951 - 1953; 9,3; ;
1954 - 1956; 2,0; -;
1957 - 1960; 11,0; +;
1961 - 1965; 5,4; -;
1966 - 1969; 7,2; +;
1970 - 1974; 6,2; -;
1975 - 1978; 5,0; -;
1979 - 1985; 0,9; -;
1986 - 1988; 1,6; +;
1989; 0,4; -;

1950 - 1951; 16,0; ;

1952 - 1953; 8,2; -;
1954 - 1956; 11,6; +;
1957 - 1963; 6,0; -;
1964 - 1968; 8,2; +;
1969 - 1973; 6,5; -;
1974 - 1978; 5,0; -;
1979 - 1988; 3,3; -;
1989; 2,6; -;
: ( ),

; <+> - , <-> - .
59
- ,
.
-, .


(50- .) . , , , , , . ,
80- ,
1989 . , , , , ,
.
, , ,
. , -

 ,
,
(shortageflation), (slumpflacii) (Kolodko,
1992).
-,
.
, ,
, , , ,
, , , . ,
, , , , , ,
( 2).
60
2
1950 - 1989 .
(1950 - 1989; ; )
**
8,2; 17,0; 5,4;
*
6,9; > 10,0; 5,2;

6,7; 9,8; 3,9;

6,5; 16,0; 3,3;

5,9; 18,0; 3,3;

**
5,0; 9,3; 1,6;

4,8; 10,0; 2,4.

* 1953 - 1989 .
** 1951 - 1989 .
: ( ).

,

 .
: ( 1989 1992 .),
- : ( 1990 1999 .).
20%, . 60%, 2000 .
( - 1996, - 1998 - 1999 .) , . 2000 . . , ,
. 2000 .
1/3 1989 .,
( ) ( ) . 61

60 80% 1989
. ( 3).
3
.
1989 - 2000 . (
%)
(1989; ...; 1999);
( 1999) (1989=100);
2000;
( 2000) (1989=100).

0,2; -11,6; -7,0; 2,6; 3,8; 5,2; 7,0; 6,1; 6,9; 4,8; 4,1; 122,0; 4,1;
127,0;

-1,8; -4,7; -8,9; -5,5; 2,8; 5,3; 4,1; 3,5; 4,6; 3,8; 4,9; 109,0; 4,3;
113,7;

0,7; -3,5; -11,9; -3,1; -0,6; 2,9; 1,5; 1,3; 4,6; 4,9; 4,4; 99,2; 5,4;
104,6;

9,8; -10,0; -27,7; -7,2; 9,6; 9,4; 13,3; 9,1; -7,0; 8,0; 7,3; 96,5; 8,0;
104,2;

1,4; -2,5; -14,6; -6,5; -3,7; 4,9; 6,7; 6,2; 6,2; 4,1; 1,9; 100,4; 2,6;
103,0;

1,4; -1,2; -11,5; -3,3; 0,6; 3,2; 5,9; 4,8; -1,0; -2,2; -0,8; 93,6; 2,3;
95,7;


3,7; 1,6; -0,5; -11,1; -2,3; -4,2; -0,9; 1,6; 2,5; 4,4; 4,1; 94,3; 1,0;
95,3;

0,5; -9,1; -11,7; -7,3; -1,5; 1,8; 2,4; -6,9; 3,5; 2,4; 4,5; 78,8; 5,0;
82,7;

8,0; -3,0; -1,2; -9,6; -7,6; -12,6; -10,4; 2,8; 11,4; 8,3; 3,4; 80,4;
2,0;
82,0;

8,1; -6,5; -13,6; -14,2; -9,0; -2,0; 4,3; 3,9; 10,6; 4,7; -1,1; 76,7;
5,0;
80,6;

-1,6; -7,1; -21,1; -11,7; -8,0; 5,9; 6,8; 5,9; 6,8; 2,5; -0,3; 77,8; 2,7;
79,9;

0,9; -9,9; -7,0; -8,0; -9,1; -1,8; -1,1; 1,2; 1,4; 2,9; 2,7; 73,8; 5,5;
77,9;

-5,8; -5,6; -12,9; -8,8; 1,5; 3,9; 7,3; 4,0; -6,1; -5,4; -3,2; 75,9; 2,2;
77,6;

-0,4; -0,4; -13,0; -2,9; -9,2; -12,6; -8,2; 0,5; 1,7; -1,9; 1,7; 62,5;
8,2;
67,6;

-6,9; 2,0; -4,7; -5,3; -10,0; -17,3; -7,2; -6,7; -11,3; 5,0; 16,0; 64,1;
4,3;
66,8;

8,0; 3,0; -5,0; -19,0; -16,0; -20,1; -5,4; 7,1; 9,9; 2,1; 3,6; 62,7; 5,0;
65,8;

1,5; -5,0; -5,7; -21,3; -16,2; -9,8; 3,3; 4,7; 7,3; 5,1; -4,2; 62,3; 2,2;
63,6;

6,8; 2,9; -10,4; -34,9; -14,9; 0,6; -0,8; 3,3; 8,6; 3,9; 0,1; 59,5; 4,5;
62,1;

14,2; -7,4; -11,7; -41,8; -8,8; 5,4; 6,9; 5,9; 3,3; 7,2; 3,3; 59,2; 3,5;
61,3;

0,0; -4,0; -5,0; -14,5; -8,7; -12,7; -4,1; -3,5; 0,8; -4,6; 3,2; 57,1;
6,5;
60,8;


-4,4; -11,7; -0,7; -22,6; -23,1; -19,7; -11,8; 1,3; 5,8; 10,0; 7,4; 46,8;
7,5;
50,3;

-2,9; -1,6; -7,1; -29,0; -11,0; -18,9; -12,5; -4,4; 1,7; 5,3; 3,7; 43,5;
5,0;
45,7;

4,0; -3,4; -11,6; -13,7; -14,2; -23,0; -12,2; -10,0; -3,0; -1,9; -0,4;
36,5;
3,0; 37,6;

-4,8; -12,4; -20,6; -44,8; -25,4; -11,4; 2,4; 10,5; 10,8; 2,9; 3,0; 33,7;
3,0; 34,7;

8,5; -2,4; -17,5; -29,1; -1,2; -31,2; -1,4; -7,8; 1,3; -8,6; -4,4; 31,2;
-3,0;
30,3;

; ; ; ; ; ; -10,8; 86,0; 32,0; 15,0; 10,0; X; 9,3; x;

; ; ; ; ; 2,5; 6,1; 7,8; 10,1; 2,0; -19,0; X; 7,0; x;

- *
-13
-0,1; -6,6; -10,7; -3,2; 0,3; 3,7; 5,4; 4,1; 3,6; 2,6; 2,1; 100,0; 4,1;
104,1;
-12
0,6; -3,7; -6,0; -14,1; -9,3; -13,8; -5,2; -3,5; 0,9; -3,5; 2,8; 55,7;
5,9;
59,0;
-25
0,3; -5,0; -8,1; -9,3; -5,1; -6,0; -0,5; -0,2; 2,0; -1,1; 2,5; 72,5; 4,8;
76,0
* 1996 .
- .
:
EBRD, 2000. 1989 . . 2000
.
PlanEcon, 2000a 2000b.
,
,
. 62

 . (
), (). , 15 - 20 % ,
(Kaufman, Kaliberda, 1996). ,
, de facto ,
,
. ,
, .
,
, . , , , , , .
, , , ,
, <> , .
,

. ,
.
15 - 20 , ,
, , ,
, ,
, , . ,
,
. , 1989 . ,
, 3,1 %.
!^
^ , , , , 63
(1990) , 1990 - 1993 . 4,7, 8,7 7,9%
, 22%. : 13% (12% 1990 7% - 1991 .,
2,6 3,8% 1992 - 1993 .). , ^.
(1991),
, ,
1991 - 1995 . 6,5%
3,25% . ,
, ,

 ,
.
^ (1992) ,
1991 ., , 5 - 6%. , ,
, , 1992 ., - 1993-. , ,
(), , ,
. , (Berg, Sachs, 1992), , (Czyzewski, Orlowski, Zienkowski, 1994)
(DeBroeck, Koen, 2000), . , , - 20% ( 1989 1992 .).
^ , , ,
6,4% 1994 1997 . 4,8 4,1% 1998 1999 . ,

6
7-

2000
.
(Gomulka,
2000).

, 2000 . 4,1%.
^ (Lawrence Summers) - ,
( 1998 - 2001 .) - .
64

0,8% 1992 . 4% .
3,6% 1992 . ( 17%
1990 - 1991 .), , . . 1998 - 1999 .,
2,3%, . . ,
.
, , ,
.
, <World Economic Outlook> 1991 ., , 1992 . 1991 . 1,5% ( 10,7%) 2,8% 1992 .
4,4% 1993- (IMF, 1991), 3,2 0,3%.
7,3%
3%, . . 10% , .
- - .
<World Economic Outlook> 1992 . 1991 ., 10,7%
(12 ) 6% -

 (15 ),
. 2,8% 1992 . 9,7%, 18,2% (IMF, 1992).
,
<> 14,2%.
, , -
.
, , ,
. ,
.
, ,
.
, ,
65
.
, , , , ,
, , .
, ,
(Kolodko, 1991,
1999d; Lavigne, 1999; Nuti, 1992; Poznanski, 1996; Stiglitz, 1999).
, ,
90- .,

?
,
, ^. ,
90- . . , ,
, . , , , (Mundell, 1997; Kolodko, 1999e; Kowalik,
2000). , , , ,
(IMF, 2000b).
,
.
^, , .
<From Shock to Therapy. The Political Economy of Postsocialist
Transformation>,
Oxford University Press (Kolodko, 2000a) ( : . : . ., 2000. - . .), , -

 , , Christ College,

: <I know there is truth opposite to falsehood that it may be found
if
people will and is worth seeking> ( <, , ,

, ,
>).
66
, < > < >, .
, , , ,
(, , ), ^. ,
. , ,
,
.
^ , , , , , , , ,
. ,
,
.
. ,
.
.
67
5


, , , ,
, ,
( ,
), . , ,
, (World Bank, 1996; Kolodko, 1999e; Blejer, Skreb, 2001).
, , - . ,
, , 3 5
, .

:
. , . - , , . ,
, , 1999 . 1/3 .
- ,
- . , , 40%.
: 7
, , , ,
, ( , ) ( 4).
68
4

1990 - 2000 .
2000 . 1989=100;
;
;
;
;
(; ).

104,2; 3; 4; 1; 3; 4; 7;

61,3; 4; ; ; 7; 4; 7;

50,3; 6; ; ; 5; 6; 5;

78,2; 6; ; ; 5; 6; 5;

82,7; 4; 2; 1; 4; 5; 6;

79,9; 4; 5; 1; 1; 5; 6;

95,7; 3; 4; 3; 1; 6; 5;

80,6; 5; 4; 1; 1; 6; 5;

77,9; 6; ; ; 5; 6; 5;

34,7; 5; ; ; 6; 5; 6;


104,6; 4; ; ; 7; 4; 7;

67,6; 6; 2; 1; 2; 7; 4;
*
65,8; 5; ; ; 5; 5; 6;
*
62,1; 3; 1; 1; 5; 4; 7;

63,6; 5; 4; 1; 1; 6; 5;

30,3; 7; 1; 3; ; 10; 1;

127,0; 2; ; ; 9; 2; 9;

77,6; 3; 4; 3; 1; 6; 5;

60,8; 7; 1; 1; 2; 8; 3;

103,0; 4; ; ; 7; 4; 7;

113,7; 3; ; ; 8; 3; 8;

45,7; 7; ; ; 4; 7; 4;
*
66,8; 7; ; ; 3; 7; 4;

37,6; 10; ; ; 1; 10; 1;

*
95,3; 5; ; ; 5; 5; 6
* , , 1990 .,
1991 .
, 2000 . 1989 .,
. : 3.

, . , 69
. 45% ( 1992 .), - 16% ( 1999 .).
. ,
1992 ., 47 ,

 (1999) , 20
. , ,
, , 1989 - 2000 . 55
, , ( 1989 .) 1995 - 1999 .
,

( , ).
, ,

.
1992 . - 2,9% 3,1 44,8 41,8% . , , ,

(2,6%) . 25
-9,3%. ,
,
( ) ,
,
.
1997 .,
,
(Montes,
Popov, 1999). , , , , - 39 , - , 1997 . ,
70
6,9%^. (
13%), - . , , 11,4, 10,8 10,6%.
2,0%, 1998 . 1,1%.
, , ,
.
,
.
, , . .
. ,

 , 1991 - 1992 .,
. , . . ,
1989 . , , .

,
, ,
.
. .
, ,
. , - .
^ 14 16%, , ,

1994 - 1997 ., 1998 - 2001 .

.
71
. , , - , ,
- . ,
, , , ,
, . ,
. , 1989 1992 ., .
, , .
8,8% 1990 - 1991 .,
.
1989 . , , . ,
, , . , . , , 1990 . 11,6, 1991- - 7%.
, .
, , ,
, -

 .
, .
, . .
, , . , 90- . , 72
,
^.
3, , , ,
.
,
.
,
.
,
^. ,
, ^. ^
, XX .
, . .
^ ,
. , , 1994 - 1997 . 6,3% ( ,

). , 90- ., , . , 1998 - 1999 .,

, 1999 .
, .
, . ,

, , - ( ). ,
, .
^ 1990 .

 , ,
73
, , , .

.
. , 80-
. -
. ,
. ,
, 1994 - 1997 .
11 ,
(.
4). , - , , . ,
,
.
, , .
, , , .
, ,
. ,
.
, , , . , , .
( )
.
74
,
, ,
- . ,

, ,
, , .

 , ,

. , ,
, , , , <> , . ,
, , , (Nuti, 1992).
, , ,
. , . - , ,
. , , , .


72,5% . , ,
, , (. 3 1).
, .
-
, - ,
, 75
, ,
. , , , ,
. ?
, , ,
.
10% , , - 2%. .

392 :
100+90+100+102 = 392.
B 1%, - 1%,
1%. 97,03% .
394,04:
100+99+98,01+97,03 = 394,04.

 , , ->
-> (102%), ( ) B,
97 . ,
5%, (102-97 = 5), 2 (394-392 = 2).
. ,
. 1999 . 1989 . 100,4 94,3%.
879%,
- 904%.
1990 - 1999 . 25 2.
. , , ( 5).
76
2. 1990 - 1999 . (1989=100)
989
938
918
904
887
879
817
795
787
769
742
738
728
724
723
687
686
669
637
582
565
559
542
504
403
77
5

1999 . 1990 - 1999 . (1989=100)
1999 . (1989=100);
1990 - 1999 . (1989=100);

 1999 .;
1990 - 1999 .;
.

122,0; 988,6; 1; 1; 0;

109,0; 938,4; 2; 2; 0;

100.4; 878,8; 3; 6; -3;

99,2; 887,1; 4; 5; -1;

96,5; 795,1; 5; 9; -4;

94,3; 904,3; 6; 4; 2;

93,6; 918,4; 7; 3; 4;

80,4; 786,6; 8; 8; 0;

78,8; 768,8; 9; 11; -2;

77,8; 724,3; 10; 12; -2;

76,7; 728,3; 11; 14; -3;

75,9; 817,0; 12; 7; 5;

73,8; 742,3; 13; 10; 3;

64,1; 737,5; 14; 15; -1;

62,7; 686,5; 15; 16; -1;

62,5; 723,1; 16; 13; 3;

62,3; 669,3; 17; 18; -1;

59,5; 637,3; 18; 19; -1;

59,2; 581,9; 19; 24; -5;


57,1; 686,0; 20; 17; 3;

46,8; 542,3; 21; 22; -1;

43,5; 564,8; 22; 20; 2;

36,5; 559,2; 23; 21; 2;

33,7; 402,5; 24; 25; -1;

31,2; 503,6; 25; 23; 2;

*
-13
100,0; 896,5; 1; 1; 0;
-12
55,7; 675,1; 2; 2; 0;
-25
72,5; 762,5; X; X; x
* (
1996 .).
78
: , 2000.
2000 . PlanEcon, 2000a 2000b, .
? ,
, , ,
, ,
?
, , . , ,
,
, .
,
.
, . , ( ).
, 5, -

 , ,
.
, , ,
, , ,
, ,
. , , , , ,
. ( )
( ) .
,
,
1999 . 1989 . ,
, 1990-1999 .,
- .
, 79
,
19- , -
, 24- . ,
,
-> -> , . .

. -
-
, ( 738
728%), , 1999 .
1989 ., . , , - .
, , ,
,
, . ,
10% , 1999 .
1989 . 7,7%, 6,4%.
25 7,6 ,
1989 ., - 6,8 , 9 (. 5). , 11 , 1989 . , 11 ( 1990
2000 .) , - . .
, , . -

 , , ex post. ,
, - .
80
6


,
, ,
, ,
. ,
, -
. , , ,
, .

.

, , ,

7,2%. 2/3 20 ,
5,7%.
, , , , 2020 .
1990 . , .
, ,
, , 1989 . 2030 .
,
.
, .
81
,
, .
, , . , . , ,
, , ,
(World Bank, 1997). , , ,
.
,

 .
,
, , , 1999 - 2000 .
, 1989 - 1990 ., - . , :

? , ?^ ,
, , , . ?
,
, . , ,
, , ^.
,
, , , ,
^ , . . ,
1990 - 1999 . 2 -11,2%. ,

122 30,3% .
^ 21,1% 1991 ., 41,8% - 1992,12,5% - 1994,

82
, , .
, . 90- ., .
, ,
. , , .
,
, 1998 - 1999 . , , , , , ,
.
, ,
, , .

 . , , , .
, . , . ,
, , ^. .
19% - 1999 .
. ,
.
^ 1994 - 1997 . - < > - 83
, ,
,
. . .
,
-11,3 16% 1997 1999 .
-11,8 10,0% 1995 1998 . ^.
, terms of trade ( 7%)
2000 .
, , ,
. ,
. , , ,
.
. ,
, , 1999 ., .
, , ^. ,
, ,
.
^, .
-

 ( )
. ,
.
^ 1999 ., 10 .

1973 - 1977 ., The Economist

84
. .
,
.
, ,
. .
(Alesina, 1997), , . .
. ( 80- .,
80 - 90- .),
(, 80 - 90- .).
,
, .
.
, .
, .
,
^. 5 !
25 . ,
, 1999 - 2000
.
10%.
^The Economist ,
<> <> . , ,
, , , , . : , , ? ,
, The Economist ,
, (Economist, 2000a).
85

, , ,
. , ,
.
.
, . ,
, . , ,
,
.
,
.

.
, - , , ,
. , , , , . , - , , ,
.
.
. , , ,
, , , , , 86
. ,

.
, , , , , , ,
,
. , , , . ,

 .
, , . , , ( ) ,
. , ,
, ,
- . ,
10 ,
, , .
, ^.
^ :
, .
, , ,
, .
<> ,
,
. , , , , (Tanzi,
1991. . 19).
87
, ,

, ,
,
^. . , ,
, ,
.
. , , , - .
, , ,
, , , .
,
, , , . , ,
-
. ,
.


,
^ , 1993 . - , <... , , . ,
,

,
> (North, 1997. P. 2).
88
, , , ,
. , -
, . ,
, . ,
- , ^. ,

,
. , . ,

.
, ,

. ,
. , ,

. , .
,
, , , ,
. ,
^ ,
, 1992 . , , 1993 . . , 1997 .,
, . - , .
, ,
1/3 ( 6,4% 1994 - 1997
.
4,2% 1998 - 2001 .).

89
,
( ) .
. , ,
.
,
.
,
,
, .
,
, .
, ,
, ,
, , , , ,
, , : - , .
90
7
,
, ,
.
. , , , . .
, .
, .
,
,
(Cohen, 1998). .
, ceterisparibus
.
,

 , .
, ,
. ,
, -> -> . ,
-,
, - .
91
- , ,
.
,
. ,
, .
, ,
. , (, ),

. , , .
, - , - , , -
. , .
. - ,
. . ,
.
, ()^.
^ 1995 . 15
(, , , , , , ,
, , , , , ,
, ), 13 . (, , , , , , , , , ),
. ,
. , 92

 , , , , , , , , .
. , , , ,
.
.
^ ( 6).

, , , , , ,
.

.
.
. , ,
.
-
(Eatwell et al., 1997; Nuti, 2001).
^ 104 .,
1989 - 1999 . ,
55% - ,
, . , , , .
- 20% . ,
, , , ,
77% , 30%. , , ,
,
. ,
: - , - .
93
6
1989 - 2000 .
( )
1989; ...; 2000( );
, 1989 - 2000; ,
1989 1999.

187; 311; 1459; 1471; 1328; 1097; 4410; 1987; 1653; 1453; 1414; 1650;
18420;
1764;

*; ; 511; 983; 563; 749; 2526; 1276; 1275; 2641; 4912; 6000; 21436;
1447;

; ; ; 58; 156; 212; 199; 111; 130; 574; 222; 250; 1912; 1115;

; ; ; 43; 50; 279; 245; 379; 515; 303; 331; 300; 2445; 866;

; ; ; 13; 78; 106; 96; 509; 302; 781; 1350; 450; 3685; 716;

-14; -2; -41; 113; 111; 131; 183; 188; 340; 250; 144; 50; 1453; 701;

; ; ; ; 30; 31; 72; 152; 328; 921; 478; 295; 2307; 545;

; 0; 117; 284; 580; 542; 1134; 2741; 3041; 4966; 6642; 10000; 30047;
518;

10; 24; 82; 100; 107; 235; 194; 199; 84; 374; 701; 1500; 3610; 391;

; 4; 56; 42; 40; 105; 98; 138; 507; 537; 805; 500; 2832; 284;

; -18; 37; 73; 87; 341; 417; 415; 1267; 2079; 949; 500; 6147; 252;

; ; 8; 20; 45; 65; 89; 97; 42; 45; 51; 92; 554; 137;

; 0; 0; 0; 0; 24; 12; 12; 18; 175; 27; 100; 368; 134;

-13
183; 319; 2229; 3200; 3175; 3917; 9675; 8204; 9502; 15099; 18026; 21687;
95216; 636;

; ; ; 100; 473; 635; 964; 1137; 1320; 1143; 1584; 1500; 8856; 494;

; ; ; ; 20; 22; 282; 661; 1093; 1024; 510; 274; 3886; 448;

; ; ; 11; 79; 103; 233; 108; 108; 62; 89; 100; 893; 159;

; ; ; 0; 1; 8; 25; 18; 52; 221; 131; 150; 606; 120;

; ; ; ; 0; 8; 6; 54; 236; 221; 96; 109; 730; 116;


; ; ; ; 10; 38; 96; 47; 83; 109; 35; 42; 460; 87;

; ; ; 17; 14; 18; 73; 23; 75; 86; 33; 100; 439; 79;

; ; ; 700; 400; 500; 1663; 1665; 4036; 1734; 746; 2000; 13444; 71;

; ; 50; 7; 18; 11; 15; 73; 198; 142; 225; 100; 839; 67;

; ; ; 200; 200; 151; 257; 526; 581; 747; 489; 750; 3901; 55;

; ; ; 9; 48; 73; -24; 90; 167; 226; 201; 231; 1021; 32;

; ; ; 9; 9; 12; 20; 25; 30; 24; 21; 30; 180; 25;

-12
; ; 50; 1053; 1272; 1579; 3610; 4427; 7979; 5739; 4160; 5386; 35255;
146;
25
183; 319; 2279; 4253; 4447; 5496; 13285; 12631; 17481; 20838; 22186;
27073;
129969; 410
* - .
: , 1997 2000.
94
-
, - (Kozminski, 1993).
. , , , , ,
, .
. , . ,
.
, ,
, . , (Fischer, Sahay,
Vegh, 1997). , , -

 , , . ,
,
.
, , , . ,
, ,
- -
.
, .
,
95
( ) ,

. , ,
, , , , ,
. ,


.
, , ,
,
. ,
, ,
.
,
, . ,
, , , , ,
, .
,

, , , ,
, -

 , .
1997 ., .
, , 96
, . , 60% (sic!)
, .
, (
) . ,
,

. ,
.
, ,
, ,
. . (
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, , . , , , , , .
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. , XXI . APEC 21 .
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, . ,
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1989 1999 . , , ,
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) 11 27 ( ^ : 2001 .
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(PlanEcon, 2000b)
2000 - 2001 . ( 4,2 1,2%),
2001 .
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123
, ) 1989 .
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124
7
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)
2004(5) . (1989=100 2000=100)
2000 (1989=100);
(2000; ...; 2005);
2004(5)* (2000=100; 1989=100);
2001 - 2004(5) .;
( 2004(5); );

127,0; 4,1; 3,8; 4,6; 5,0; 5,1; 4,2; 124,9; 158,6; 4,5; 1; 17;

104,2; 8,0; 9,1; 8,8; 7,8; 7,3; 6,9; 146,8; 152,9; 8,2; 2; 2;


113,7; 4,3; 4,1; 4,6; 4,8; 4,8; 5,1; 125,7; 142,9; 4,5; 3; 18;

103,0; 2,6; 4,2; 5,2; 5,6; 6,0; 5,4; 129,3; 133,2; 4,7; 4; 16;

104,6; 5,4; 5,5; 5,2; 4,3; 4,6; 4,6; 126,7; 132,5; 5,0; 5; 12;

95,7; 2,3; 4,4; 5,8; 5,6; 4,3; 4,2; 126,8; 121,3; 4,5; 6; 19;

82,7; 4,5; 5,0; 5,3; 5,0; 4,5; 4,3; 126,5; 104,6; 4,9; 7; 13;

95,3; 0,8; -1,0; 2,4; 3,9; 4,1; ; 109,6; 104,5; 2,4; 8; 24;

77,6; 2,2; 6,2; 5,9; 6,0; 5,4; 5,1; 132,1; 102,5; 5,7; 9; 6;

80,6; 6,1; 6,0; 5,8; 5,9; 5,8; ; 125,7; 101,3; 5,9; 10; 4;

77,9; 5,5; 5,4; 5,6; 5,3; 5,2; 5,4; 130,0; 101,2; 5,4; 11; 7;

79,9; 2,7; 3,3; 4,5; 4,4; 4,1; 4,0; 122,0; 97,5; 4,1; 12; 22;

67,6; 3,3; 4,6; 7,6; 5,7; 5,5; ; 125,5; 84,8; 5,9; 13; 5;

66,8; 4,3; 4,6; 4,8; 5,9; 6,2; ; 123,3; 82,4; 5,4; 14; 8;

82,0; 1,1; -4,2; -1,2; 1,6; 3,2; ; 99,2; 81,4; -0,2; 15; 25;

65,4; 2,3; 6,0; 5,5; 5,5; 4,5; ; 123,3; 80,6; 5,4; 16; 9;

65,8; 7,0; 4,2; 5,0; 5,8; 5,7; ; 122,4; 80,5; 5,2; 17; 11;

61,3; -5,4; 7,7; 4,1; 4,6; 4,7; ; 122,8; 75,3; 5,3; 18; 10;

62,1; 4,7; 5,5; 4,8; 4,5; 4,3; ; 120,5; 74,8; 4,8; 19; 14;

60,8; 5,9; 4,5; 4,1; 4,0; 3,9; ; 117,5; 71,5; 4,1; 20; 21;

50,3; 7,3; 8,4; 8,9; 8,2; 7,8; ; 137,7; 69,3; 8,3; 21; 1;

45,7; 4,3; 6,5; 6,6; 6,4; 6,3; ; 128,4; 58,7; 6,5; 22; 3;

37,6; 4,2; 3,9; 4,4; 4,7; 4,1; ; 118,2; 44,5; 4,3; 23; 20;

33,8; -4,3; 4,6; 4,8; 4,7; 5,0; ; 120,5; 40,7; 4,8; 24; 15;

30,5; -6,0; 3,7; 3,2; 2,9; 2,8; ; 113,2; 34,5; 3,2; 25; 23;

; 9,3; 8,8; 8,1; 7,7; 6,6; 5,4; 147,6; ; 8,1; X; X;

; 7,0; 11,7; 7,9; 6,7; 6,7; 7,2; 146,8; ; 8,0; x; x;

*2004 - ; 2005 - .
- .
: 2000 . - 3,
2000 . - PlanEcon, 2000b; - .
2001 - 2005 . PlanEcon, 2000 2000b; 2001 - 2003 . Citibank Poland, 2004 - 2005 . - PlanEcon,
2000b ( 2001 - 2003 . PlanEcon
5,5,5,4 5,1%;
.: PlanEcon, 2000b).
125
8.
1999 2003(4) .
( . )
1999 .; 2003(4) .; ( .; %).

14267; 17344; 3077; 21,6;

9096; 16048; 6952; 76,4;

9472; 11442; 1970; 20,8;

8395; 10954; 2559; 30,5;

8063; 10648; 2585; 32,1;

8284; 9528; 1244; 15,0;

7232; 9255; 2023; 28,0;

6341; 7877; 1536; 24,2;

5722; 5737; 15; 0,3;

4539; 5087; 548; 12,1;

3758; 4796; 1038; 27,6;

3680; 4520; 840; 22,8;

2962; 3837; 875; 29,5;

2842; 3662; 820; 28,9;

2897; 3423; 526; 18,2;

2891; 3376; 485; 16,8;

2482; 3028; 546; 22,0;

1828; 3027; 1199; 65,6;

2612; 2721; 109; 4,2;

1970; 2689; 719; 36,5;

2348; 2641; 293; 12,5;

1950; 2570; 620; 31,8;

2211; 2472; 261; 11,8;

1745; 2104; 359; 20,6;

1474; 2025; 551; 37,4;

748; 848; 100; 13,4;

*2003 . ; 2004 . . : PlanEcon,
1999a
1999b.
126
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,

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.
127
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: PlanEcon, 2000a 2000b. . 7.
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. 130
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 10

XXI .
; 1A; 1B(Min); 1C(Max); 2A; 2B(Min); 2C(Max); 3A; 3B(Min); 3C(Max);
4A; 4B(Min); 4C(Max).
2000;
2005;
2010;
2015;
2020;
2025;
2030;
2035;
2040;
2045;
2050;

100;
110;
128;
163;
208;
242;
280;
325;
377;
437;
506;

100;
105;
116;
141;
172;
190;
209;
231;
255;
282;
311;

100;
110;
134;
180;
241;
293;
356;
433;
527;
641;
780;

100;
116;
134;
156;
172;
192;
222;
258;
296;
327;
361;

100;
110;
122;
135;
141;
149;
164;
181;
200;
210;
221;

100;
122;
148;
180;
199;
220;
267;
325;
395;
437;
482;

100;
128;
163;
234;
336;
428;
497;
576;
668;
774;
897;

100;
122;
148;
198;
265;
323;
356;
393;
434;
479;
529;

100; 100; 100; 100;

134; 144; 134; 154;
179; 206; 179; 237;
276; 263; 218; 317;
424; 305; 241; 385;
567; 354; 266; 469;
690; 410; 293; 571;
840; 475; 324; 694;
1022; 551; 357; 845;
1243; 638; 395; 1028;
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. 2025 2050 .
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138
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3,1
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3,5
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3872; 2028; 2042; 2069;


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148

3124; 2031; 2046; 2076;

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: p/c (per capita) 2000 . PlanEcon, 1999a
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1950 - 2005 .
7
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1950 - 1951:
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1974 - 1978:
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161
8
(1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004 .)
1950 - 1951:
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162
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(1953 - 2005 .)
1953 - 1956:
1957 - 1959:
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163
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164
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1950 - 1951:
1952 - 1953:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1963:
1964 - 1968:
1969 - 1973:
1974 - 1978:
1979 - 1988:
1989: -1,1

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1990
1995
1998
2000

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1997:
1999:
2004:

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6,3
2,0
5,9

165
12
(1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004 .)
1950 - 1951:
1952 - 1953:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1963:
1964 - 1968:
1969 - 1973:
1974 - 1978:
1979 - 1988:
1989: 8,5
1990 - 2000:
2001 - 2004:

16,0
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5,0

166
13
(1950 - 2005 .)
1950 - 1953:
1954 - 1957:
1958 - 1963:
1964 - 1968:
1969 - 1970:
1971 - 1975:
1976 - 1978:
1979 - 1982:
1983 - 1985:
1986 - 1988:
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1990 - 1991:
1992 - 1993:
1994 - 1997:
1998 - 2001:
2002 - 2005:

9,8
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5,3

167
14
(1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004 .)
1950 - 1951:
1952 - 1953:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1963:
1964 - 1968:
1969 - 1973:
1974 - 1978:
1979 - 1988:
1989: 2,6
1990 - 1991:
1992 - 1994:
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8,2
11,6
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168
15
(1951 - 2005 .)
1951 - 1953:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1959:
1960 - 1962:
1963 - 1966:
1967 - 1970:
1971 - 1976:
1977 - 1979:
1980 - 1984:
1985 - 1988:
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1990 - 1992:
1993 - 1996:
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169
16
(1950 - 1992 .) (1993 - 2005 .)
1950 - 1952:
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1990 - 1993:
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170
17
(1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004 .)
1950
1952
1954
1957
1964
1969
1974
1979
1989
1991
1997
2000

1951:
1953:
1956:
1963:
1968:
1973:
1978:
1988:
1990:
1996:
1999:
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171
18
(1950 - 1988 .) (1989 - 2004 .)
1950 - 1951:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1963:
1964 - 1968:
1969 - 1973:
1974 - 1978:
1979 - 1988:
1989: 3,7
1990 - 1991:
1992 - 1996:
1997 - 2004:

16,0; 1952 - 1953: 8,2

11,6
6,0
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6,5
5,0
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06
-3,4
2,7

172
19
(1951 - 2005 .)
1951 - 1953:
1954 - 1956:
1957 - 1960:
1961 - 1965:
1966 - 1969:
1970 - 1974:
1975 - 1978:
1979 - 1985:
1986 - 1988:
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1990 - 1992:
1993 - 1996:
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173

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177
SUMMARY
Globalization and the postsocialist transformation are two distinctive
characteristics of modern times. Are these epoch-making processes
interconnected? Would the systemic transformations in Central and
Eastern Europe and in the vast regions of Asia have taken the same course
had it not been for globalization? And, conversely, would it be at all
possible to speak of globalization without the concurrent changes in the
former centrally-planned economies and their successive integration into
the
world system? What is the final outcome of these tremendous changes going
to
be and who are the likely winners and losers? These are the fundamental
questions addressed in the present book.
Globalization is in fact a permanent process which has been going on
for centuries. However, at some points in history it gains a special
importance. This is indeed the case now, at the beginning of the 21st
century.
But also certain other periods in the more or less distant past following
the Age of Exploration, which led to the emergence of the world colonial
system in the 16th - 18th centuries, or at the time of rapid
technological
progress in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when the world capitalist
system was formed - witnessed intense processes of the type now termed
globalization. Whenever certain trends in technological development
coincided with innovations in the sphere of economic relations and the
political situation was favorable for the expansion of economic activity
(trade, manufacturing, finance or investment) across and beyond state
borders, the economy would acquire an increasingly global character. This
very phenomenon - the emergence of a single, integrated worldwide market

of capital and goods (and, to a lesser degree, also labor) - is the

essence of
globalization.
Nowadays globalization has acquired a peculiar aspect. On the one hand,
this has to do with the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the emergence of
a <new economy> of the information age and the Internet, which has
eliminated the barrier of physical distance to a point when the world has
expanded one more time, the way it did after the discovery of America.
Enormous new opportunities have arisen, as if a new continent had been
discovered, to conduct various novel forms of economic activity covered
by the blanket term e-business.
On the other hand, the present phase of permanent globalization is
intimately linked with new geographic areas coming into view, known as
emerging markets. A special role among these is played by postsocialist
178
countries. From Central Europe to the Pacific coast, they are inhabited
by
1.7 bn people - who work, earn, spend, save and invest. This creates an
immense potential. For the highly developed capitalist countries, this is
yet another <America> in which to do business.
For countries involved in the postsocialist transformation, the object
of the game is to redefine their place on earth. It is with great
difficulty
and at the expense of a severe transitional recession, which slashed the
region's GDP by more than 30% in 1990 - 2000, that these countries are
laying
the foundations for market economy, becoming in the process part of the
global
capitalist system. How successful are they going to be vis-a-vis the rest
of
the world? What position will they occupy in the global village? Which
postsocialist countries have a chance to catch up with the rich in the
next
five decades and what development paths are they to take? And which
countries will be marginalized? The object of the game is to have as many
countries as possible redesign their economic and political structures in
such a way as to start moving towards the center of the global village,
but
some economies may never be able to break out of the periphery.
There are many participants in the game. The richest countries and the
world capital try to approach globalization in a way that will maximize
their benefits accruing from the liberalization and integration of the
hitherto largely separated markets. This affects not only postsocialist
transition economies, but also the less-advanced countries of Africa,
Asia
and Latin America. It has been a great and tenacious illusion that the
postsocialist transition automatically leads from the <Second> to the
<First
World>. Such is the logic of this process that many of the former
centrally-planned economies will end up in the <Third World> instead.
Some
have already suffered that fate and few of them are likely to succeed in
getting closer to the center of the global village - to the world of
developed
capitalism.

Both globalization and transformation are irreversible. This fact must

not be overlooked, yet one should also realize that, all told, the
additional
opportunities globalization brings to postsocialist transition economies
outweigh the increased risk it causes. Hence the balance of the new
processes
resulting from the globalization vs. transformation interaction may be
favorable; how favorable, depends on the policies adopted.
The point being made in this book is that, for all the substantial
progress
of globalization and transformation, a country can and must pursue its
own
national strategy of socio-economic development. The most successful
implementation of this approach thus far was the <Strategy for Poland>,
followed in 1994-7, when Poland's GDP rose by a staggering 28%. No
East Central European or post-Soviet economy was able to attain that much
before or afterwards. However, in the case of China, which follows its
own
strategy of market reform and economic integration with the remaining
179
part of the world economy, the 1990s - when globalization and
transformation reigned supreme - turned out to be a decade of rapid
economic growth. This demonstrates once again the existence of different
ways to influence the course of events: the Russian besides the Chinese
way, the Ukrainian besides the Polish way, etc. What remains at all times
the key issue is the policy.
The two processes in question are by no means complete. The
transformation will be brought to a conclusion at some point, but
globalization will be, essentially, permanent. It is a process, not a
state
that could be reached once and for all. However, in order to take
advantage
of the transformation - for the benefit of a specific society, state and
economy - one should aptly grasp the opportunities offered by the
progressing
integration of the capital and commodity markets. And conversely, to make
good use of the opportunities brought by globalization, one has to manage
the systemic transformation prudently. Unfortunately, many countries and
politicians are not quite up to this task.
The present book is a self-contained whole, but nevertheless it follows
logically from the author's previous works. It begins with an account of
the essential challenges faced nowadays by postsocialist economies.
Chapter
1 presents the specificity of postsocialist capitalism, still burdened by
the
legacy of the past. Chapter 2 discusses the interdependencies between
globalization and the postsocialist market transition. Outlined in
Chapter
3 are the historical roots of the present stage of globalization,
including its
previous phase in the 19th century. Chapter 4 covers the scope and
dynamics
of the transitional recession as well as the causes of the slump. Chapter
5 is
devoted to various scenarios of recession, recovery and growth, as these

processes follow different paths in specific countries and regions of

Central
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Chapter 6 takes a closer look
at external shocks, economic policy adjustments (taking into account, in
particular, the impact of institutional vacuum) and their effect on the
dynamics of real processes and the prospects of catching up. The focus of
Chapter 7 is on the opportunities, as well as threats connected with
globalization, the latter being particularly acutely felt in transition
economies, which are opening up to financial and trade contacts with the
global economy. Regionalism, expanding in various parts of the world,
which
may either turn out to be an obstacle to further worldwide market
integration, or act as a catalyst of this process, is analyzed in some
depth
in Chapter 8. The main point of Chapter 9 is that globalization, while
leading
to a single, integrated market, need not and should not bring about the
formation of a world government. It does imply, however, profound
institutional changes facilitating worldwide coordination of the economic
policy. Chapter 10 describes alternative growth paths for the next fifty
years
180
and, furthermore, indicates various available political strategies to
attain
rapid growth, sustainable in the long run. Finally, Chapter 11 lists the
conclusions concerning the appropriate choice of economic policy in the
face of the challenge offered by the new century.
The book contains a statistical appendix presenting, side by side with
medium-term growth forecasts for postsocialist countries, data on their
economic performance in the 1990s and the preceding four decades,
beginning from 1950. Hence, the time span for the considerations covers a
period of 101 years: from 1950 to 2050.
181

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