INTRODUCTION

More the ideas generated for possible products or design concepts, more the chances of finding a satisfactory solution. It is also generally true that almost all design concepts proposed by an experienced design engineer could work provided they are all developed sufficiently. However, development of design costs money and time; and in almost all cases, both are limited. Hence the need to evaluate alternatives, and select those few which hold greater promise than others.

GUIDELINES FOR EVALUATION

It is necessary to choose, out of the various alternatives available, those designs that we think can be developed further. If one of the desiqns were far superior to others, or if all were equally desirable, there would be no need for evaluation. Seldom does one come across such situations; and evaluation does become necessary.

Perfect evaluation of the designs is not possible because of the many uncertainties involved. However, evaluation must be made, and it must be made with care. Some guidelines that will prove extremely useful in this exercise are given below:

I. Efforts must not be wasted on designs that are

(i) Obviously inferior, and

(ii) Theoretically superior but practically inferior.

II. The value system adopted for the criteria of evaluation must be sound, especially for the final design.

III. Desiqns should be compared on the basis of

(i) Relevant items, such as cost, resistance to vibration, reliability, etc.

eii) Features that

a. Are different, e.g., belt versus gears.

b. Satisfy the requirements, and how well they do it.

(iii) Ease of solving subproblems, if any.

(iv) Any unusual manufacturing process/material required.

THE EVALUATION PROCESS

Evaluation is done at different stages, from different points of view; and with different degrees of criticalness, and ranges from preliminary selection to detailed economic and financial analysis. We discuss in the following sections some of the important techniques of evaluation .

...-,;,,\ I '

Screening t(9 , \5 \' I i

--_._"' .... -

The ideas generated are "screened" to ascertain

• Their compatibility with Corporate objectives and policies, and

• Their market viability and probable profitabilitv.

It is a preliminary evaluation to determine whether the idea has possibilities and should be further pursued or whether it should be dropped. This is done at/by new product conFerence/preliminary product review committee in which representatives of

1.

2. Yet again, the maker and the user must both get their money's worth.

The theory of" physical realizability is a theory about the subjective confidence or belief that a given design concept can be physically realized within the limits of a .

specified design budget. Mathematically, . . , : <_ t .. 1 IlJ/

I.. C'I frnl 'V(-' rtll /t~i'i .• oc"o" ,

Ol'JOJ t'·~" -;» ,."-,~,.,,,,,,,, . .,

, .... '(" ' '" \,' ,... f) "

s \ ,,It:J\ ~ "

L

= {E' XB,

Where

L = confidence level on a problem, on a scale of 0 to 1

E = amount of favorable evidence "

X = current expenditure in rupees, 0 s X s XB,

XB = allowed budget in time and money, and

= Initial rate of increase in favorable evidence with expenditure.

Design Tree for a Measure of Physical Realizability

The physical realizability of a design concept can be measured in terms of the confidence the designer has in his being able to transform the abstract concept into physical embodiment This confidence is expressed as a statement of subjective probability. Thus, a physical realizability index of 0.75 means the designer considers the odds in favor of his completing the design are 3:1.

In order to make such subjective probability estimates, the designer needs to gather evidence to develop better understanding of the nature of the problem. In the process, he might encounter some subproblems that demand solutions first; i.e., he may have to tackle lower level problems and work his way up.

In fact, he has to build a hierarchy of problems and subproblems. The last level of subproblems that he can visualize would offer him a better chance of making a more realistic probability estimate. This is known as the design tree. The design tree approach is a probability study developed by Marples for estimating the physical realizability of a design concept.

l

011

012

021

022

031

D32

Referring to the Figure above, a certain design concept D has subproblems say, Q1, Q2, and Q3. The success of Q1, Q2, and Q3 depends upon the success of their subproblems D11, D12; D21, etc. From the data on probabilities, it is possible to work out the chances of the success of the design problem.

Utility Concept in Design

A customer evaluates a product on different dimensions such as cost, safety, ease of use, etc. For this the evaluator uses a utility scale that is based upon his personal preferences, and is highly subjective. According to the evaluator, the utility score he assigns to a certain characteristic or dimension of a product indicates the extent to which that characteristic is present in the product and how important it is to him. Thus, the utility score of a product on the adaptability dimension represents the judgment about how much adaptability that product has and how important is adaptability in the product to the evaluator. Thus, it is a measure of the contribution of the given level of adaptability to the overall usefulness of the product.

)3

MODELING

A model is a meaningful repr~n~.lli>n._Qf a ~ea~ situation on a mini ~e, where only the.?i9njJtc..a:nt~ factors of the situation are hig_blighted. The purpOse-ora model is to understand the complex situatioo basecfOn~onliHle significant" factors.

There are several types of models. The model could be a physical model, like a model of a house, a park, a sports complex, etc. The model could be a scale model reducing a large body to a small one. The model could be a mathematical model like break-even analysis model, linear programming model, queuing model, network model, etc. Here, a situatlon is represented in a mathematical form such as equations, matrices, graphs and polynomials.

A complex situation is represented using variables, constants, and parameters, which playa significant roie in that situation. The model is based on the relations the variables have. The relations among the variables may be linear or nonlinear. The model only considers relations of high significance. The model, when the situation is complex, tries to simplify the complexity by ignoring minor factors and emphasizing only major important factors.

A model could be static or dynamic. The physical models are static models. Some business models like the break-even model, the statistical regression models and some of the O.R. programmli.n'H' models are static models. The static model does not change over a time period.

All the planning models and all the forecasting models are dynamic models. In a dynamic model, in addition to the variables considered, time is a dimension of the variables. The values of thes;,:e variables change with the change in time. Such variables are called stochastic variables.

A model, physical or mathematical, static or dynamic, needs to be tested for its utility or effectiveness. The model can be tested by using the control results already obtained. This would shcw<! the difference between the result given by the model and the actual result in a rea! life situation. If the difference is not Significant, then one can say that the modelrepresents the. real situation. Once the model is proved useful, it is used for testing various solution alternatives. The selection of a solution, from many alternative solutions, depends on the objective chosen. In a hnear programming model, a solution is selected on the principle of maximization of a desirable qualltycfcharacteristic or the minimization of an undesirable quality or characteristic. In the queuing model, a solution is selected, when the cost of the waiting time of the customer is less than the cost of the idle time of a facility. The selection of a solution is based on the attainment of a certain value of some aspect of the business, such as turnover, the cost and the profit and so on,

The planning mode! considers those business variables which affect the business prospects and wnrch 5110\/1 a significant impact on the business results. The long-range strategic models are, generally, dynamic models and the short-range management and operations modeis are mostly static models.

- - .. ~ -

I

,~ :

MODELS

Verbal/Written
(Descriptive) -
Heuristics
, (Rules of thumb/defined -
decision~ures)
SChematic
(Pictorial): Maps,
J Charts, Diagrams '
~ I(;On!C (Scaled phySical - '. (\l~d' -
';:;.- replicas) ,
\ ' \(l t\)t, ,i
Mathematical Numerical - '\ i
Simulation Oiscrete' :-V;l
, .
Continuous '
Optimization Non-arialytical ~oIution
Intuition
Trial and error
A.'1alytica! Oasslcal
Graphical
calwlus
Mathematical Unear Programming
Programming • Graphical
• Simplex
Nonlinear
PrQg_ramming ,
I Dynamic
Programming
Geometric ~,T.~~-;c-I' .
.
• IIU.~ MODEJ,.LING

INTRoDUcnON

As engineers and managers plan, organlze, and control the design, conversion, selling and various other business processes concerning products or services, they encounter Il1ahy probl~ and must make many decisions. They can frequently simplify these difficulties by using ~els.

MODELS

A mode/is an i~,ealjzed conversion 9f a r.~1 system. It is created to represent the system under study to explain or-demonstrate the ~r~ipsJnvol¥ed. It is a meatllngful representation of a real situation where only the significant factors of the situation are highlighted. The purpose of a model is to under&tand the comPlex situation based on only the Significant '_'_'m_,'

factors.> . ~---..)

---- Since it is an idealized: and simplified representation, it is generally less cOmplex than the actual system;.Dut sliffloently cortlf5{eXfu~apPfoximate those aspects of reality that are being Investigated. Models are primarily used to evaluate how a change in one or more aspects of the modeled system may affect the other aspects of the system. The mOaerts a tOot 'to 'evaluate alternative solutions.

behaviour of the sYstem. Thus the decision-maker can take a better decision after eval~tinQ

variousa1temativ~ . .

Opt/lllization

Optimization is the process of maximization of a desirable quantity or Quality like profit, component life; reliability, etc. or minimization of an undestrable quantity or quality like expenses, material tosses, energy waste, welght~ etc. In this, we conStruct a mathematiCal model and using various methods~ find outthe conditions that-give maxtmum or minimum values of a function subject to some constraints. All ~.nships.and constraints _~ expressed mathematically, and] the model is used to demonstrate different outcoriles tliBt would result from various possible

managerialdh~. .

By usil;g: models, managers can recognize

1.' V:aljables ~at can be controlled, to affec;:t performance of the ~

2. Relev~_costs and their magnitrJdffiJ and .

3. The relationship of costs to variables, induding important tradeo~mon9 ~._

--~.----,"--~- ---.~ . .~. ~ .

APPUCATIONS Design

Design is an iterative process. One starts with a poorly detined problem, refines it, develops a model, and arrives at a solution, Usually, the solutions are more than one, and we have to seardt~ for the' best. Optimization is ~_technique that has been precisely developeQ for such sitUations.

capadty Planning ----~- _. . ..'..

Several models are u.· se fulln capacity planning. Present valueana/ysisis helpfulwhenevertheJjmE~~and ~ws must be considered. 8reiJkeven analrsis_can identify the mmlmurn break even volumes when comparing projected costs anctreleoues;--linear pragrammihg, computer simulation and decision tree ana/y$is are some of the models that can be employed in such situations as shor:ttenn capacity pla~.nd I~ ~~~.:. Production and Operations Management

Operations managers otten USE! ~~!.!Q.help ana~p~lems and ~ solutions. To ~'" they otten tina it helpful to use algorithm, a prescribed set of ~s @ protedure) that attains a _~!n. op!!mi?atiOl] model~J for examPle, we want to find tile L1(~.t§QJyg9n (~ goal), and an

optimipltlon IJlgorithm identifies the steps for doing SO. ' Pfdci!s!.-.:ayour-----

Many models are useful in planning the p~ la~~ ~!n....ematic:aLa~s can help ~ £OnceQtualize the problem; ~uter ~s can provide qyid< a~tions of g~c--~~./ and physical models (templates and scale models, among others) can help managers visualIZe t:he

Jayout. .' .

Graphic and Schematic AnalySis Perhaps the most common layout planning tools are templates, two-dimensional cutouts of equipment drawn to scqle. These cutx>uts ate moved abatlt by trial and error within a scaled model of the walls and ~Jumns of the facility. Templates are used for all three types of layouts- process, process, and fixed~ Similarly" computers can visually display layouts, and the "electroniC templates" manipulated with a keyboal'(!.

Load-Distance Model The most commonly used quantitative, process layout model minimizes' flow and so the cost of moving by considering the numberof loadS moved, and the distance

between each pair of workcentres. . .

In this model, we minimize the cost expressed as:

C ::: E (Load - distance) • cost

/ ,

OPllfv1IZATION

Introduction

Design of a system- a product" process, or service, or any of the numerous business related systemsis basically an iterative process. One starts with a poorly defined problem, refines it" develops a model, and arrives at a solution. Usually, the solutions are more than one and we have to search for

the best. That is, for any real life problem in engineenng or administration, there exist a large '

number oi faasible solutions, and we have to find ~e'bcsl among them.

Optimal solution and Optimization

A feasible solution that satisfies the objectives of the organization in the best possible way istermed as optimal solution. The optimal solution is obtained through the process of optimization, a technique that has been precisely developed for such situations. Developed in 1950, this has been gradually applied to a variety of engineering and business problems. The concurrent development of thedigital computer with its inherent capacity for rapid numerical calculations and search, has made the application of optimization techniques very practical for many design situations.

()ptim'ization Explained

C)ptimization'is generally considered. as the process of maximization of a desirable qualityor , quantity like profit, component life, reliability, and etc. or minimization of an undesirable quality or qUaJ1~ty like.e)(p.cnses, material losses, energy waste, weight, etc._ , , In' many cas-

es ,: engineer tng prohlems do not have one optimum eo Lu t Lo'n and the ans-' ,w'r: may depend upon the model used for analysis. For e xamp Le , one anaJ.yst may cho os e to improve the financial standing of a company'¢'by maximizing prof~t, whi~e another may prefer to m in ind.z e cost. In such' cases, the optirrium solution may be defined as the best relative to the model.

'~I'he optimum solution will be the best for the problem only" if the s.peci-

tied criterion is a true, repBesentation of the go'als of the entire or-

c;anh;ation in which the probelm exists. In pr ac t i.c e , however , there is often more than one conflicting goal. Po r e xan.p l e, in mak i.ng an o p t Lmum deg~~~fora tennis racket, the desi~ner must ,include the conflicting goals of low cost, light weight, high stiffness, high toughness and playability. If the design criterion represents, some, but not all, of the conflicting goals, the result is a suboptimal solution. Naturally, the

, ,

designer would try to minimise the consequences of suboptimality. One possibility is to combine the major conflicting goals in one funution

by aSSigning appropriate weights t~ each goal and then adding them together. ']'his met-hod is S Lm i1 ar to the dec is ion n.at r ix method. Another possibil ty is to select one predominanat goal as the ob j e ct i've function and to reduce the o t h e r F2;o8.is to the s t st u s of constraints or spec i f i c a-

t:Lons. Such spe c iti c at.a ons CElYl he considered 'as target' v a'l u e s which F:.c'S

) '.

s u b ,l (; c t tot r ~ cl (9 0 f f S v! he n the f:i T! ,<1 '1 e c i ~; i (_) n j f3 r:~ :',d e .

,

of e x arrrp l e s of engineers vho used intui t i.o n to· mak e major advances .. Al though the k now l edge and tools available t.ortay are so much more powerful, there is no doubt 8bout the fact th8t intuj.tion continues to play an import~.nt role in technological. deve Lo nme t .

.'Ii

3. Optimization by t ri.a.l and e1'1'Ol' JViodelling.

This refers to the

usual situation ir. modern e ng i rie e r i ng design wherei t is recognised thai; the first feasible design isn6t necessarily the best. TherefOrE) the design model is exercised for a few iterations in the. hope of finding an improved desilZn. However, this mod~,of opet~tion is ·not true ortimiz~tion. some~'refer to it FlS ~~ffi:~1~~~'6t?~ge~0 opt'lroizing to mean ~l t e chn i c alLy , e c omom i CP.lJ.:v~fu~~~'OO·;~tlon.

4. OptimizRtion by mRt!'.GJ:!atic:::l Fll;.lori t hm. This is the area of

current acti~e development in which mathematically based strategies

are used to search for an optimum.

OPTIMIZATION T~CENI'JL_TES

Consider the case of a pipeline carrying a hot fluid. If'the pipeline

is not sufficiently Lnsu La t e d , heat w i Ll. be lost, as shown in Fig. 15.1.

Ma.X 5 paC( lava \ loJ.l(

I

I

However, if too much of insulation is used, the cost of insulation might exceed the cost of heat lost dur Lng the expected 1·ife 04! the "~~

.. l insulator. The optimum thickYH?-

Min i'NlI.4('Y) rAyoilabl~

.... I Ifl5\.4I ... Uon

....

HEAT i csr

.ce s r er ss can be determined as the point

t1N~Ul"'TION

, of minimum total cost on the tota.l

I cost curve(cost of heat saved+cost

I

of' Lnsut a t i on ) as shown in Fig. 15.1. The figure also shows the constrai-

,

lh5ulo..tlor) ThicKness X__,..

nt imposed by the (l.vailable space for insulation. In the figure, +he optimum thickness falls b e twe en . the constraints and if selected, wo u.Ld

r-e pr es errt the optimal sol u t ion. HOv18ver, if the energy cost Lncr'e aae s,

. ,

the optimum insul a t i on thickness vloulrl. then increase accordingly. If ,

the available spa. c e 'i s less than the economic thickness, the optimUTD. design cannot be ach ieve d . In t.h i.s design using the maximum 8110w-

~

able Lnsu l at ion t n i cknc s s v ie l d s optimal design, wh i ch is the best of

all feasjble designs.

O.PT D'iI ZATION 13'( DIF:F'EHENTJAIJ CJ~CU1US

The above problem can be r e p r e e en t d ana l y t i c a.l Ly by t-h-c fo Ll ow i n.; r e l.at :L 0 11 S hip s :

. ,~~., .

Discuss Linear 1)rogr8.'f.rLing lIloc) s L, rio w \'/ ill you. 1,;.8e this model. to

decide about the produe:t[; to

'I'h e linear programming method is app l ieabl e to large and il1)portant

class of optimization problem that involve linear objective funct-" ions subject to linear constr.qinta. A1though it has found wide acceptance in business and industry, for dealing with such pro~lems as inventory management and production control, it has found f'ewe r di-

r-e c t applications in engineering design because of the inherently non-linear nature of engineering problems. Nevertheless, understan-

ding the concepts of linear pr ogr-arrnri.ng is now an important part of

. general efigineering knowledge.

The general LP'Problem consists of a set of in linear equations and/ or inequalities involving E variables. \18 w ish to find the non-negative values of the. variables that i~\atisfy the equations and Lne'quali ties and a.Ls o m ax i.m i z e or minimize the linear objective function. It is widely used for nroauct m~x type decision uroblems.

We shall illustrate the tne t ho d of sol u t ion of LP pro bl ems vli th the fo.llowing two-variables problem. Variables x , and x) represent two

, -

nroducts which respectivley yield profits of 2 and 1 unit.

U 2x1 + x2 is nhe objective f'urrzt i on

Ti>me capacity constraints of shops I and II

•. 1;.

2x + 1 x ~ 12

1 2

4x1 + 1 x2 ~ 5

x I;? 0; x1. ')- 0- is non-negat'i vi ty r equ tr-emen't

The inequalities are based on the fact that product Xl takes 2 time

U,,-d:5 I;" 9ho P 1: 8. 4 oU...-v\. e, ~ c: ~"'21 0 F If'Y 'X,.. -.l v, 1 h'''''''''''''__ ~t v..:.

a-.-<L. ,¥-..... ,.

r

Problems w i.t.h two v ari ab Le s like

the above can be e a s i I v hand.le d b v

... ....'~)

graphical, me thods. POl' 100re than tHO. variabl es! simpl ex method of solution is used.

/