Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 113

Assured Soccer Profits

System

A Sensible System For Sensible People Who Want To Make


Small But Consistent Profits From Trading Soccer.
Also available, a membership package with additional training
through video, modules and ongoing updates.

The Small Print (Slightly Enlarged).


This has to be called a gambling book even though I dont really see it
that way. Thats because it is so much more than mere gambling. It shows
you how to make money from football by trading through a game using
extremely sensible and logical steps.

You can lose money on any pure gambling related methodology,


especially if you do it wrong. And some people can, sadly, make anything
fail. The way to avoid failure with this is to take your time to study it
properly and then practice without using your money until you are
confident with exactly how it works. So, yes, it is gambling if you try to
cut corners, rush it, and/or dont give it time but, otherwise, it is simple
as good as it gets as far as minimal risk betting (trading) is concerned.

If you lose money using this system in any way remember that massive
research, SERIOUSLY MASSIVE RESEARCH carried out by people
who really understand the subject matter went into making this as safe
and as efficient as possible. Then also remember that we are all
responsible for our own actions where any form of betting on sporting
event is concerned. This strategy works and has been proven to work by
many, but, like all such strategies, it will not work on every single event it
is applied to. You can see many unsolicited testimonials the ASP
supporting that claim.
2

I would also appreciate it very much indeed if you would refrain from
copying and sharing this system.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In fact, if you want to share this system, I would actively encourage you
to contact me so that I can explain how to do that in a legitimate way that
allows you to make some money from introducing this to others.

The best way to contact me is to send an email to either:


john@assuredsoccerprofits.com or to
support@profitmagnets.com.

The information contained in this book is as accurate as it possibly can


be. However, things change constantly and if you spot any significant
change then, please, bring any such change to my attention in case I am
not already aware of it. The illustrations and images in here could look
different when you see them on your own computer screen for any
number of reasons and few, if any of them, will invalidate what is
contained herein.

That is because the exchange market you use may alter and could
experience technical issues. You could get Internet connection problems
and various other issues. Again, these things happen and just know that
the information brought to you here has been brought to you diligently
and with as much care and attention as possible and, once published and
put out there, corrections and alterations are hard to implement easily.

Some of the material within this publication was written in 2011 though
the bulk of it was written or at least updated in early 2015.
Ultimately, Assured Soccer Profits is a football correct score, trading
system that aims to create profit over the long run.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Individual games will be losers and you might even get a few of these in
a row. That doesnt mean the system doesnt work, it just means that it
will not work all of the time on every game.

Understanding that is the difference between going on to make good


money from this (which is why most people seek this type of
information) and kicking it into touch before any profits come.

Mostly, it is my hope that you find the content of this book informative,
educational and, above all, profitable. Thank you for investing in this
publication and this strategy and heres to your next pile of winnings!

Introduction
We live in a world where our most popular national sport, football, has
acquired a split personality and is often referred to in the international
arena as soccer and so as to not confuse this in any way with American
Football, I have incorporated this international flavour within the title.

Invariably, as you go through the book, you might notice the odd switch
between the two terminologies from time to time and for this I beg your
indulgence. I also switch between the I and the We at times as some
parts need explaining in the singular and others in the plural depending on
who might have been involved. I ask also for your indulgence with that
and confess that sometimes I simply forget whether I or We is best.
The search for seriously good, money making, football systems,
especially systems with the ability to significantly reduce or completely
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

remove the downside betting risk, has occupied a fair chunk of my life for
some considerable time now. It has been a passion to say the least and it
has always seemed logical to me that, given time, patterns would emerge
in football betting markets that could be used to continue to formulate
safe, systemised gambling processes.

I started out on this adventure many, many years ago but when
Betfair.com launched back in 1999/2000 I took a very keen interest in
what was going on there and started to go to work on my very first
football betting system that involved the LAY as well as the BACK.

This research led to the Football Cash Generator, the first real lay the
draw system (something that has become all too well known since) and
over time my knowledge of betting exchange based betting and trading
systems has grown year upon year.

Little did I know that, back in 2005, a buyer of Football Cash Generator,
Geoff Parle, would one day, six years later, become a working partner for
a new project.
In 2010 I went to work on this system with Geoff and it is Geoffs initial
idea about one particular market at Betfair.com that created the seed of
what would become Assured Soccer Profits.

Many believe that you can never beat the odds.


I believe otherwise and, by taking action over time in a live event, odds,
specifically changing odds, can definitely be turned to our advantage.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Passion for a subject alone, of course, will not achieve the desired end
result. Many hours of trialling ideas and testing their effects must then
follow and failed ideas fly out of the window at pace, one after the other.

Disappointment can soon emerge and easily build. Is it worth persisting


with such a goal one might ask?

Well, a seriously good football betting solution now is probably the most
sought after betting solution there is amongst would be part time or even
full time betting folk and occasional punters. Why?

Because football, unlike horse racing (my other great passion), is still
predominantly very much in the weekend and evening domain. It is also
very much on the increase in popularity; in stark contrast to horse racing
(and its associated betting markets). It could be argued that horse racing
is slowly on the decline. But no such argument could be made about
football.

Who can really expect to crack football betting with all of its potential for
influence (and abuse) from so many different directions? Football is rife
with controversy and the performance of teams and individual players
alike is often under close scrutiny because of its pure lack of consistency
and logic.

Just look at all the things that can influence a football match (and this is
by no means the entire list).

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

1) Poor or, perhaps, just disagreeable refereeing.


2) Yellow and red card decisions.
3) Players having off days.
4) Unfit players or teams or different fitness levels between teams.
5) Over-crowded fixture lists and low squad numbers.
6) Loss or absence of key players.
7) Injuries sustained during a match or even off the field.
8) Moody and juvenile players (no-one sulks quite like a footballer).
9) Inspired performances from under dogs or individuals.
10) Bad managers. Bad Players. Bad Teams.
11) Bad relationships in the team. Unrest and high profile sackings.
12) Unexpected goals against form or run of play through pure luck.
13) Team spirit (or lack of it). Speculation about imminent changes.
14) The financial status of a club (massive buying power, or debt).
15) Extreme bad weather and general pitch quality.
16) Lets face it; even infidelity close to home has been known to
influence on field relationships and, ultimately, performance!

Perhaps it would be better to not even get into the incidence of game
fixing the like of which we have seen in the recent past (in, but not
exclusively in, Italy for example).
Im sure I could go on with a list of what makes a systemised approach to
football betting complicated but to say that, from a betting perspective,
football is a volatile game doesnt even go half way there.
Many believe that you can only realistically get cash profits out of
football betting of any kind through instinctive (experience based) betting
based purely on watching the game I absolutely disagree.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In fact, over time I have come to believe that not watching a game is an
advantage because you do not then reach for the back or lay button every
time there is a foul, a corner or a free kick.

Why then should anyone believe that coming up with a football betting
system that is all of the following, is even possible?
1) Safe it isnt ever going to cost you the shirt off your back or send
you spiralling into stress unless you have over-committed.
2) Easy anyone will find it easy to use with or without any prior
football betting experience once theyve mastered it.
3) Accessible it can be used by anyone with even relatively small
funds (a few hundred pounds) available to them at times that suit
them.
4) Fast it frees us of the need to study real form of any real kind or
even the need to pay too much attention to the teams involved.

Could it even be possible? Yes, not only is it very possible but, subject
to you following the guidelines we lay down for you, it is exactly what
you have here in your hands right now.

Welcome to a world in which you can generate tax free income from
football by following some well tested and yet very simple and logical
steps.
8

I always have, and always will, watch with avid interest, the developing
football markets on Betfair.com and develop constantly they certainly do.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I am always looking for a new way to combine markets or use elements


of one particular market with elements of another to create profitable,
reduced risk, systems.

I also look for signs (signals) from one market as to how it might affect
another. That all said; I never once expected to be able to use just one
market again to produce all the results I needed and I have Geoff to
largely thank for opening my eyes again to that possibility.

Before speaking with Geoff, I was well down the road to producing
another football system. And, when I saw his initial ideas, I stopped my
research immediately, resigned my progress to the back burner and
jumped into this new direction with gusto.
ASP
Making significant progress in the development of new ideas and new
approaches to betting can really be like pulling teeth and with that said,
let me introduce you properly to Geoff, a football betting enthusiast, like
myself. He very kindly admits to being greatly influenced in his search
for better and improved betting systems by my Football Cash Generator
System.

Geoff has worked tirelessly on the core of this system that he and I are
about to share with you and just to demonstrate how rich and divers
individual backgrounds can be with those drawn to the experimental and
discovery side of betting, Geoff is a retired dentist.

So when I say, glibly, that making significant progress in this field is like
pulling teeth, well, he is in a unique position to make that comparison.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Geoff, I thank you for your contribution. Without which there would not
have been an Assured Soccer Profits System.

The Basics
This is a system designed and proven to produce small but steady returns.
I recommend that it is used with small stakes. A small bank of 200 to
300 is sufficient to get you started providing you limit your potential
losses to no more than 10% of that bank on one individual trading game.

By following, fully, the recommendations within this book it is a safe


system as far as betting goes. In time, with confidence and experience,
one can consider the stepping up of stakes, so long as there is an increase
in betting bank size to keep liabilities in check.

However, think on this if you will, Geoff restricted his stakes to 10.50
total per game, typically with a maximum liability of around 40 or 50,
and achieved profits in excess of 7,500 per annum as a result. Now, of
course, I cant say youd achieve the same. You might achieve less. You
might even achieve more. Much depends on time committed to it.

He has been sorely tempted to increase stakes and, on occasions, has done
so, but only on occasions. The primary quest has always been to come up
with a solution that anyone should be able to use and small stakes are
not going to frighten you or most people. I hope you do much better with
this than Geoff has and I know that many users of the system already
have. Ultimately, we are all different and will apply what we learn in a
different way.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

10

HERES A FACT TO GET YOU STARTED:


If you keep to the same staking levels, at least initially, as Geoff has and
apply those stakes to a similar number of games overall, you should
experience similar results. But you could start even smaller at first.

If you use half the amount he does, you should experience around half the
profit levels. That really does make this safe.

The basic stats on football rarely (if ever) change, as you will see later,
and so you can compare results from previous years knowing they are
still valid. This is important because Geoff is now fully retired and so the
temptation might be to think that his results are no longer valid because
they only run between 2010 and 2012. They are as valid today as they
were on the day that they happened, you can check that for yourself.

It should be noted that the market we use for this system has also grown
in use rapidly over the last few years offering, as a result, more and more
games to trade and they will, I am sure, continue to grow with demand.

There is plenty of money about in our chosen market and the prices/odds
therein are still as attractive as they ever were. Liquidity has rarely and
should never really be an issue. It is also hard to see any reason why the
odds we need should ever change for the worse over time and because of
demand even if this became the most popular system ever.

Our system, this system, is based entirely around the betting exchange
correct score market.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

11

And our examples and trials and tests and results have all been
experienced around, specifically, the Betfair.com correct score market.

That is not to say that it would not work with other exchanges offering an
equivalent market, because it would, but we make no reference to that
having always used Betfair.com.

Geoff, specifically, trialled what you are about to see extensively for over
a year before we first launched ASP and for well over a year after we
launched and I use it whenever I feel like some football trading. Geoff
recorded his results diligently between February 2010 and June 2012 and
these can be downloaded and viewed by visiting/re-visiting the ASP site.

I add to those specific and detailed results a unique understanding of how


this market reacts through experience gained in over 15 years now of
studying football markets on Betfair.com. I understand this better than
most.
ASP
The aim with this system is to greatly enhance the odds of success by
having two bets within the one market which are not only mutually
exclusive, but also diametrically opposed. They are, in many respects,
pretty much total opposite ends of the same scale.
HERES ANOTHER FACT:
12

You simply cannot lose on both of these bets within the one football
match, its impossible.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If one bet looks like failing or has failed, the other must look like winning
or has won and vice versa and one bet enhances the total return from the
other.

And so we have an unusual situation where two opposing bets totally


compliment one another. In Stock Market terminology this might be
referred to as one cancels other i.e. O.C.O. This system was
accordingly called SOCO during the work in progress and testing stage.
However, we decided to call it The Assured Soccer Profits System
because that better describes what you now have your hands on, assured
profits. Our aim with this system is to place one bet, subject to
acceptable odds, prior to the commencement of a game and another
(perhaps broken into segments), also subject to acceptable odds, once the
game is in-play. By following our filters and steps exactly, you will
experience the following:
1. In most games that you bet on, you will make variable amounts of
profit depending on the exit odds available to you. Some will
produce more profit than others.
2. On some games you will lose some money but it will mostly be a
small and very acceptable loss in the bigger overall picture if you
are properly trading down your liabilities.
3. In the balance of games you will win small amounts or break
even having decided to take an early bath and focus on safety.
13

The consistency comes from the high percentage of games that allow you
to secure a profit, regardless of the final result, during the game.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In many of the games, your involvement in the game would have ended
by half time.

There is scope to take more calculated risk if you so wish and to extend
your time in the game to target a higher profit level. However, we do not
recommend this until you are working with pure profit.

There are also going to be opportunities, if you look for them, to profit
from developing score-lines in games. Thats harder to cover in a manual
but is something I expand upon in videos for ASP members.

What Are We Actually Doing?

As briefly mentioned previously, the chosen market is the correct score


market at Betfair.com. In-play games (in-running games) are essential as
trading between a BACK and a LAY takes place during each match. To
LAY is to bet that the result chosen WILL NOT happen and our bets are
made with a view to:

a) Locking in a guaranteed profit or, if the game goes against us,


b) to reduce a potential loss to zero or to an insignificant amount as near
to zero as possible.

The bets for each match are placed using small stakes which are, in the
early stages of learning, together targeted to produce a win of
approximately 4 to 5 per match to begin with (or even less if you
decide to be really liability conscious).

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

14

4 to 5 doesnt seem much but, as it is possible to bet on any number of


matches simultaneously, the rate of return per 90 minutes can far and
away exceed those figures.
ASP
It must be said that Geoff (and I) could easily have bet on twice the
number of games that we did but, again, with a view to demonstrating
that this system can be used to great effect by anyone, Geoff always kept
his involvement at what he considers to be a realistic and undemanding
level. I have often bet higher stakes and seen much higher returns but it is
critical to keep to the basics here.
There would be little or no point in demonstrating a system that anyone
can use if, in fact, one needed to devote 12 hours per day to it! Also, if
you dont need to work hard, why work hard? It equally wouldnt do to
run a system that required a huge betting bank that would be out of reach
to most part-time betting folk.

So this 4 to 5 (average profit per game) is recommended as the


starting target when you at first commence with your use of this system.
But you could start even smaller and should if you are using a small
betting bank because, as with all things, by stepping up the amounts
gradually, you can start to increase this over time as confidence builds.

Above all else, please do not rush it. In my experience more people lose
because of impatience and greed than because of any other influence
in any form of betting.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

15

In reality (taking all games into account), this slow but sure methodology
has produced (see Geoffs results spreadsheet on site) an average return
per match bet of just over 4 and an average profit per day of just under
21 and that is taken from a snap shot over 427 betting days and equates
to over 8,000 per annum. The total games covered on his sheet though,
in the end, far exceeded this as you will have seen if you downloaded it.

Now that would make for an extremely useful pay rise for just about
anyone. If you currently earn 30,000 a year (for example) this is like
giving yourself a 27% pay increase! The best news of all is that the pay
rise is tax-free!

More good news, the system does not demand that you stare at the
television or computer without a break for each match as it is
recommended that you follow each match on a live score update site
such as flashscore.com (or a similar site). You would have the sound
turned on so that you will be alerted whenever a goal is scored in one of
your matches, goals are the key.

The alert from flashscore.com when a goal is scored is a big cheer. By


using this site you need only act upon such an alert or act at specific times
(such as at half time or just before) to reduce any liabilities.
In many instances, the entire process is finished at half time and so,
unusually, with Assured Soccer Profits, it isnt always a game of two
halves as the pundits are keen to say.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

16

From an absolute usage of time perspective, let us declare right here and
right now what we consider to be a fair and accurate estimate of how
much of your time this will take up. An individual game may take just ten
minutes of actual required action on your part. So six games would
equate to 60 minutes roughly as an approximation.

I think it is also important to stress here that you can almost certainly be
doing other things at the same time. You could be watching TV, reading a
good book, catching up with paperwork and so on. But do pay attention,
dont get totally distracted.
There are 4 distinct periods of activity to the system:
Period 1 The Search
Make an assessment of the games that potentially qualify ready to come
back to later. Perhaps put a lay bet request in asking for a lower price than
you can reasonably expect to get or than you can currently see (because
you never know). To begin with, at this stage, you could set up your My
favourites menu on Betfair.com ready with your games of interest. Well
come back to My Favourites later. You would also add these games to
My Games on the flashscore.com website.
The search starts with simple, easily found facts (odds mostly) and can be
enhanced with limited recent head to head form study.
Period 2 Setting Up The First trade

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

17

If you either saw no reason to make any initial searching lay bet during
Period 1, or that bet simply didnt get matched (taken); on the approach
to kick-off, make your first lay bet in earnest providing it can be done
within your own maximum/minimum odds criteria.
If you did try to get a lower priced lay on earlier and youve done well
and already have at least part of this lay matched then you top up to your
intended stake here and now. That is your primary lay completed.
Period 3 Setting Up The Second trade
This can be a bit of a variable. Either just after kick off put in and keep a
lay request at a specified price for bet 2 (more on that later), so that when
(if) the price has dropped to that level you get matched automatically. Or
at a specific time (normally between 10 and 20 minutes into the game)
make your second lay bet if appropriate then.

There are 3 possibilities with bet 2. It does not happen at all (the game
has already moved on to a point that makes bet 2 redundant). Your bet is
matched by the time you come back to it (you left it waiting) or you are
now going to make bet 2 because a certain time has elapsed.

Also, with bet 2 it is often good policy that the bet is broken into smaller
parts. There is no reason why you should not choose to break it into parts
with each part requesting a progressively lower lay price. This is a highly
recommended policy for liability reductions.
Period 4 The Profit Lock-In Or Liability Reduction Phase.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

18

At, or preferably, 4 or 5 minutes away from, half time, which will greatly
depend on what you have done up to this point, green up (make every
possible outcome a profit and smile) or reduce liabilities now to the
minimum possible across the majority of the board (meaning across the
majority of all final score outcomes).
ASP
What we should do now is move this along to the getting it set up to use
stage so that these periods mean something in reality. Just before that
though, I do need to throw out a cautionary statement for those among
you more inclined to revert to gambling.
Period 4 requires critical and specific action on your part. It is here, more
than anywhere else, where this incredible system, a system that has made
consistent and steady profit, can be eroded into loss and destroyed by
failing to take action and, if that happens, it is going to happen because
of the greed factor and your movement into pure gambling. If that
happens, let us be totally clear:

YOU HAVE MESSED UP!

You must act at Period 4 to secure your profit or to minimise or


greatly reduce your potential loss even if you have to do that on two or
three games in a row. If you do not, then you have moved into pure
gambling mode. Gambling is fine when it done with previous winnings
and it is a measured gamble that has a good chance of accelerating
profits.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

19

Specifically, when you have progressed into funding the system from real
profit made from it previously, then, holding off past Period 4 without
taking immediate action is a possibility but please dont leave it and hope;
it doesnt work like that.
What can happen, when you have mastered the system, is that you can
extend the get out period into the second half to a degree but only IF
you worked hard to get your Period 2 trade for the smallest odds (and
therefore the smallest liability) possible. This is not something I can cover
in detail in this book but I will put some examples in.

The temptation in the early days on some games will be to wait because
you expect positive action (a goal) at any time from one of the teams.
Dont get into this habit! At get out time, get out! Perhaps you will even
be tempted to wait long into the second half. Believe me, between us,
Geoff and I have made every single mistake possible when experimenting
with this. Geoff made big mistakes through waiting in the early days of
developing this idea. I have, more recently, deliberately and extensively
tested waiting periods to find the holes and try to bring the system down.
ASP
In almost every case of a larger than normal loss being incurred, the
mistake has been a failure to take action at Period 4. You will see why
this action point is important as we move on. And trust me when I say
that, between us, Geoff and I have used ASP on thousands of games.
20

Nb: larger than normal to me is bigger than 5 times the average profit.
So if the average profit is 4, then 20 is a larger than normal loss and
this should be seen as a rare experience.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

INDISPUTABLE FACT:

Take action always as directed at Period 4 and you will make profits over
time, fail to take action and you may not make those profits. Geoffs
profit, over more than 24 months, include the small wins, the small
losses, the occasional bigger losses and the bigger wins. The profit comes
from the CONSISTENCY of his actions not what happens on any
individual game.

TIP:

Start out with a small first lay at Periods 2 and 3 and then you will not
put yourself under pressure right from the beginning.

What Do You Need To Know To Set It All Up?

You must have an Internet connection, because this has to be done online and you will need a betting exchange account.
ASP

21

We use Betfair.com for this and specifically, of course, their football


markets.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If you are a first time user of Betfair.com, you may not see the exact
screen images in this publication. Dont worry, once you have set up your
account, you will find what you need easily enough.

In the unlikely event that you are not aware of Betfair.com and new to
this whole thing, the illustration above should still help you to find it. If
you have not got a Betfair.com account then go ahead and sign up for
one, they have good getting started video tutorials to get you under way.

If you click on or copy and paste the link below into your browser, you
will be able to view those getting started videos:

http://learning.betfair.com/en/

Moving on; click on the Football sub-tab on the page you see in the
image above (be aware that the picture on that page will change daily)
and it takes you to a screen like the one below:
ASASP

22

Just below what you see in the image above, there is a popular sample of
todays in-play football menu and a link below the sample to more.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Let us pause here and briefly explain why we need In-Play just in case
it isnt already clear.
We are going to set up a strategy that has three primary betting actions.
The first is carried out prior to a match commencing. The second is
carried out during the early stages of a match and the third is carried out
when a profit can be secured or we need to act to reduce any potential
loss. This third part can be ongoing if it cannot be achieved all at once.
Thus we need an In-Play market, simply meaning betting is possible
during the game. Fortunately, the bulk of all Betfair.com covered games
are now in-play games.
A common question is does that mean that working people cannot
possibly use this system?
ASP
Hardly; most good profitable football happens during the evening
and/or over the weekend but also we are now spoilt by the availability of
the smart phone.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

23

Weekday afternoons (and definitely weekday mornings) rarely have


anything monumental going on as far as football is concerned but because
of the smart phone even these trading periods are available to you even
if you cannot be in front of a computer during these times.

As you can see, Betfair has a mobile site. So, if you cant be in front of
your computer screen at home, then you can use Betfairs site on the
move.

With the introduction of 4G now, the mobile site is very fast as well and a
breeze to use especially as we mostly only need to use the one betting
market and dont have to suffer many time delays when having to load
from one screen (market) to another.
24

On my phone the movement between screens is actually as fast if not


faster than the normal online version but much depends on where you are
and the network youre with on your mobile deal.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Before using my phone I may have already (earlier) identified the games
of interest to me and filtered out those that hold no interest. I would then
make a list of these games so that I dont forget them.
The real enthusiast who wants to add this income stream to existing full
time income and, finds him or herself in a position to operate this system
all day long might well also take advantage of mid-week, day time
games. But that is an individual call.

You can, I assure you, make good money without that time period.
Obviously the weekends present the biggest profit potential to us during
the main football/soccer season but you can look at Betfair.com any day
now (winter or summer) and you will find, generally, at least twenty
games listed on their in-play menu.
ASP
Do not disregard the summer either as there are many overseas leagues in
operation during our off season along with a large number of
international competitions.

We are now going to take a look at the filters you should apply to deselect games that are considered to be too risky for your attention until
you have more experience and can trade, pretty much, any game.

Filters.
25

Please note that whilst reference may be made to conducting these search
and filter exercises in the morning or even during the night before, you
should always go back and check everything just before the game.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Betting markets are often not properly formed (and therefore the prices
can be false) until nearer the start of the event, especially with the lesser
known overseas football leagues.

The image above is a snap shot of an in-play game menu. Our first
piece of filtering work is to filter out, from the in-play coupon list, games
where there is an overwhelming favourite. Why? An overly dominant
team increases the likelihood that our strategy may fail, thats why.
Our strategy requires goals in a game but the fewer goals the better. The
perfect game is one that is 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 at half time and, ideally, we do
not want more than 2 goals to one side in the first half and certainly not
too often.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

26

It is suggested that any odds-on favourite game where the favourite has
odds that are less than 1.7 is removed. I have highlighted them on the
image above. Tests have shown that keeping above 1.7 is the safest bet
but you may go under that figure if you wish providing the other filters
stack up. But dont go too far under, maybe 1.67 or 1.65 but no lower.
Please bear in mind that some of these markets are not necessarily fully
formed so, for now, dump anything that looks like it should be out based
on this filter even if it is only the price to back (blue column) that seems
to be caught by this filter.

27

This exercise can easily be carried out early in the morning or even the
night before with a view to setting up My Favourites.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

The Betfair.com My favourites facility is perfect for this and, using


this, would be a sensible way to isolate the games that potentially interest
you so that you can come back to a list of just those rather than a list of
all again later.
An explanation on how to use the Betfair.com My favourites facility is
contained towards the end of the book for those who need it.
ASP
Other Match Selection Filters:

This is largely common sense but you may wish to remove any games
based around leagues or regions of the world where you just find the team
names enough to put you off. And definitely remove games from leagues
that you cannot easily get a current live score from on the common live
score sites (flashscore.com/livescore.com).

In addition, it generally pays to ignore under 21 games and reserve team


games unless they are internationals with big market interest (good
liquidity) and, sorry ladies, womens football unless they are big
international events (with good liquidity). If we revisit the image above,
we will see plenty of under 21 games that we wouldnt bother with along
with one reserve game.

It is highly likely that you will not find these games listed on the
www.flashscore.com and www.livescore.com sites anyway. Even if you
do, they are best ignored. Another big issue with this type of game along
with general lack of liquidity that comes with them (bets matched in the
market) are nonsensical odds that arent always realistic.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

28

You will find many games listed on Betfair.com like this, especially
youth games, womens football and any number of overseas cup
tournaments. You could, with extensive searching, generally find a live
score update on anything, but it might be with some considerable effort
and you do not want to waste time on anything that requires too much
effort.

Any time you can allocate to ASP, other than actually trading games,
should be spent on learning the system. And of course, you will carry out
a considerable amount of paper trading before committing any real
money. And please do paper trade, dont skip running it on paper only at
first.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

29

Useful tip:
Check flashscore.com first and, if it isnt listed there, dont bother with
that game, there are always plenty of others to choose from.
Now let us move on to the second odds based filter that we look for
after the match odds filter. For this we go to the over/under 2.5 goals
market and to get there we click a game from our overall in-play match
list and then click the over/under 2.5 goals link on the left hand side of
the page.

Clicking that link takes us here:

30

This filter tells us much about the probability of more than 2 goals. As I
mentioned, the perfect game for us is a half time result of 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1
because it makes both of your bets EASY winners (as you will see).
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

And, generally, this means that we want to see low odds for under 2.5
goals indicating that the game wouldnt even come close to making your
pulse race and that is important we all want calm simplicity without any
stress, if possible.

A strong indication of under 2.5 goals leads us to believe that only a few
goals will be likely and that is good. What we want to see is the under 2.5
goals section having odds of under 2 (or evens) to back.

Our example (here it is again below) certainly indicates that under 2.5
goals is not favourite in this game so it doesnt tick that box for us and
should be avoided.

So, to recap so far, we need a match favourite that has match odds of
bigger than or equal to 1.7 and then we need to see a clear indication
that the market views the likelihood of there being less than 2.5 goals as
favourite over more than 2.5 goals and we definitely want to see the odds
on under 2.5 goals at less than evens (less than 2). Under 2.5 goals in
reality, of course, means a game ending with 2 goals or fewer.
31

Now heres one that does qualify for the under 2.5 goals filter:

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

You can clearly see that under 2.5 goals is the red hot favourite and well
under evens and that is good for us. But there is another odds based filter
that we also check first before deciding to trade the game. And that is the
over/under 3.5 goals market. Again we want to see the under 3.5 goals
as favourite and we want to see it as the very hot favourite.

This one certainly qualifies on that count. You can see the odds here for
under 3.5 goals are 1.15. Now they do not need to be that low but I do
like to see odds here of 1.35 or lower and the lower the better.

Seeing odds on under 3.5 goals at less than 1.35 very firmly indicates
that this game should not result in 4 goals scored and, as you will see as
we move on to the system itself, we absolutely do not want to be on a
game where one of the teams score 4 goals or more on their own. So,
naturally, a strong indicator that the game in total is likely to produce 3
goals or less is good for us.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

32

Now, you will rarely see over 3.5 goals (as opposed to under 3.5 goals)
viewed as the favourite of the two or more likely outcome of the two
(although there are occasionally such games) but what we want to see
here is under 3.5 goals being not just favourite, but absolute, red hot,
bolted on favourite so in the example above youd have to say this is
perfect.

Useful tip:

If you were to make it a rule that you need odds below 1.30 here (they are
very common) then it will stop you going on games where the odds are
just over the filter threshold (like 1.37 or 1.36).

Our next filter, and our last instant view filter, is to do with volume of
money in the market, specifically, how much has been matched on bets
within the correct score market. If you are looking at this early, well
before the game, do allow for the fact that the market has not properly
formed and double check it closer to the kick-off. However, the bigger
games will have well-formed correct score markets well in advance.

We want to know that we can not only get our bets matched at the outset
but also that we stand a very good chance of getting bets matched later on
during the game itself. Our best indication of this comes from liquidity
simply put how much money has already been bet in this market.
33

This directly tells us that there is good interest in the game and therefore a
very good chance of people being around watching this betting market
and willing to bet later.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Sadly, the game I have highlighted up to now has failed on this next filter.
With only 20 minutes to go before the game kicks off, it is showing only
646 matched on the correct score market. We need this to show at least
2,000 just before kick-off for it to be a safe trading game.

Now, with experience behind you, a less than 2,000 matched game can
be traded. I would maybe trade this game personally but it should be
avoided by someone new to trading in this way and let me just break
down why so that it is extremely clear to you.

How much has been matched in total in the correct score market is
important because it can solve a potential problem that might otherwise
occur later. At close to kick off we need to see at least 2,000 matched or
we risk in-play liquidity problems.
What can sometimes happen in a game that isnt well supported is that
when you want to make an in-play bet later, it simply isnt matched
(taken) because there simply is no interest in the game.
Now, once weve satisfied the match odds, total goals market odds and
liquidity requirement there are other factors that we look at:
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

34

We want to see that the 0-0 price is not too high or too low because we
are going to look to lay 0-0 early in-play. This (lay) is our Period 3 bet.
If it is 17 or 18 or bigger to lay pre-kick off then there has to be some
considerable movement (downwards) to get to a price that is comfortable
to lay in-play. For me, that price is 10 (occasionally 11) and I would
normally look to split my 0-0 lay stake into 2 or more parts and do some
at that maximum 10 or 11 level and the balance at 8, 7 or even lower if it
drops to that level. That said, I would not discount anything up to odds of
16 or even 17.
If the 0-0 odds are higher than 16 or 17 that, in itself, does not even
disqualify the game and I would still leave an in-play request waiting at
10 or 11 for the first part of my 0-0 lay stake but, in reality, our advice is
to never actually lay 0-0 at higher than 11 (maybe 12) and to get a lay at
odds of 11 in-play, you do not want to be waiting too long for the odds to
fall to that level. They will fall quickly from around 15 to 10 in the
absence of an early goal. But you want to be laying by 15 minutes in at
the latest ideally.

It is also recommended that you discard games where the 0-0 odds are
lower than 7 pre-kick off because this indicates a higher probability of a
0-0 result (according to the market) in this game than is comfortable.

We want to be out of our games (and in profit) wherever possible by half


time and we do not want a 0-0 score-line at half time if at all possible.
ASP
R

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

35

Naturally, it must be said that the higher the market odds on a 0-0 result
are, the higher the probability of goals in the game and we do want goals
of course but we dont want too many.
Regardless of the 0-0 price at kick off, always put in a request to lay
at lower than those 0-0 starting odds.

The example above is ideal. So, if this was a game for me, I would ask
for a lay at around 8 and then at 7 or 6. There is no firm rule on this just
ask for a lay below the starting odds. If I were starting out with a
relatively small bank, I would probably put a 1 lay request in at just
below the starting odds and then leave a few more 1 lay requests waiting
at lower and lower odds.

Betfair have a minimum stake of 2 so, to see how you can get under that
staking level, watch my video on Profit Magnets. You have to be a
member of that site to watch it but it is absolutely free to join the site with
absolutely no catches.
36

There is also a time factor. Most first half goals occur between 15 and 40
minutes. You want to be looking to get your first lay on at or just before
15 minutes even if the odds havent already dropped to your target level.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If the odds look high still, then make the lay stake low then ask for a bit
more at a lower price after that. A good tip here is to think of your 0-0
laying period as being between 10 minutes and 30 minutes and after that
you would move into the backing period (all will be clear as you read on).

Now we look at the odds for ANY OTHER WIN (be that home or away)
and the odds here, ideally, need to be between 10 and 18 to lay, although
if everything else stacks up, you can take a lower price.

This lay is our Period 2 bet and is always made pre-kick off unless you
are a more confident trader with a little more experience. Sometimes, if I
come to a game late and the price is OK, I might lay ANY OTHER WIN
after kick-off but normally, even then, it would be early in the match.

I will sometimes take on games with a much lower lay price on ANY
OTHER WIN if I feel there are good reasons. There is an example of this
a little later on based on the older Betfair system where ANY OTHER
HOME WIN, AWAY WIN and ANY OTHER DRAW did not exist.
Instead there was one simple betting category called ANY UNQUOTED.
Now, with the new system, there is so much more of an advantage.

Because there are games now where you might be able to lay ANY
OTHER HOME WIN and ANY OTHER AWAY WIN and possibly even
ANY OTHER DRAW. Remember what I said about going for those
smaller than 2 stakes why not a 1 on the bigger 2 of the 3 of those
ANY OTHER sections of the market and a little more on the favourite of
these.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

37

As a general rule it is the favourite of these ANY OTHER categories that


becomes our main target. This will always be the team (home or away)
with the smallest match odds. If there is no clear favourite to win the
game and the odds are not too high, you can spread your lay between
both home and away, but keep the stakes really small.
ASP
Remember, this is all start out advice. ASP can be used on any game
pretty much IF you have the experience to trade any situation.

Useful tip:

If you want to lay at higher than 18 on ANY OTHER (after all, the higher
the odds here, the less likely the market perceives the probability of an
ANY OTHER result) do so but perhaps using a smaller stake than what
would be your normal stake. The same applies with 0-0 lays. The key is
always to keep your liabilities down to a level that would not upset you if
you were to lose this amount. Even a 2 lay on ANY OTHER when
coupled with a 0-0 lay for 2.50 or 3 can still, on occasions, make you
the 4 average profit that Geoff consistently experienced.

Even if you just add a 1 lay to the two other ANY OTHER categories,
you suddenly have 6.50 in the pot. A quick explanation as to why 6.50
may be required here.

Any LAY bet you make, if it wins, returns the stake. Thus 6.50 of lay
stakes equals a return of 6.50 if your lays win. There is also a small
commission to come off of this but ignore that for now.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

38

ANY OTHER in the correct score market very simply refers to any
specific score-line that doesnt have its own row and heading in the
correct score market menu. It actually refers to any result that has a 4 or
higher number in the score-line for one team or for both teams in the case
of ANY OTHER DRAW.

Let us take a look at some correct score markets with a view to further
explaining the two lays we make to set the game up. Ive removed the
middle out of these images so you can see both top and bottom.ASP
ASP

With this first one (above) we see that the ANY OTHER odds are quite
high but maybe it would be worth a 1 lay?

39

With this second one (above) we see that perhaps ANY OTHER odds are
maybe a little low, certainly for anyone totally new to trading. Remember
that, the lower the odds, the more likely the outcome is perceived to be.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

With experience though you will soon find out that the ANY OTHER
section is often completely based on who the probable winner is going to
be rather than really how many goals they will win by, but we have to
start you off somewhere.

The final one (above) is pretty near spot on. With 0-0 at 15 and ANY
OTHER HOME WIN at 9.2. Although you might not want to rush into
laying 0-0 but, rather, lay it as it comes down in small chunks. The video
I pointed out to you at Profit Magnets earlier deals with 1 stakes but you
can even go lower with (say) 50p stakes if you wish.

Here, in this image, we see that:


1) We already have 8,071 in matched bets on this market, so thats
good.
2) A 0-0 price of 15 right now to back, so thats OK.
3) ANY OTHER HOME WIN is being offered right now at a lay
price of 9.2 and that works well. It must be said that you wouldnt
necessarily take that price. The price to back AOHW is 8.8, a clear
4 ticks lower, so there is every reason to think that you might get a
lay of 9 taken and so would be wise to try to get that first before
kick-off, or even ask for the 8.8 odds first.
ASP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

40

Remember, you can always take the 9.2 if you have to later just
before kick-off.
At this stage we are simply discussing filters so dont worry if some of
this seems confusing. It will all become clear as we progress.

Whichever game you focus on, of course, you still need to re-check the
other filters. So here is another quick summary of that process:
1) We must have a game that we will be able to bet upon in-play.
2) We want a favourite with odds of or bigger than 1.7 in the match
odds market.

3) We want to see under 2.5 goals odds of below 2 (evens) to back.

4) We want to see under 3.5 goals odds of or below 1.35 to back.

5) We want to see matched bets in the correct score market, before the
game commences, of at least 2,000.

6) We want to see 0-0 odds that do not exceed 15 (ideally) to lay in


the correct score market and that are no lower than 7.
7) We want to see ANY OTHER odds to lay that are (ideally)
between 9 and 18 in the correct score market. It is possible to go
higher here but restrict your total liability to a sum that (in the
worst scenario) you would be ok about losing. It is also Ok to go
lower if everything else stacks up.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

41

Regarding liabilities; a 3.20 lay at odds of 12 creates a potential liability


of 35.20.
ASP
If you wanted to make 35 your absolute maximum liability then odds of
20 would be fine providing you restricted your stake to 1.84. Yes, this is
below the Betfair maximum but the Profit Magnets video shows you how
to get around that.

Ultimately, what we are trying to do here with our strategy is attempt to


make money by betting that each selected game will:

a) Not finish goal-less (using a 0-0 lay).


b) Not end with our side scoring 4 or more goals (our side being the
one we layed on ANY OTHER WIN).

Important Statistics.

Let us just break off from developing the system detail for a while now
and look at some statistics gathered from soccerstats.com. These can be
quite revealing if we want to take a close look at what actually happens
and demonstrate why this simplistic but brilliant system works.

What is the actual experience of results? If we look at the UK Premier


League first (of course), over the two full seasons of 2009/2010 and
2010/2011 we see that only 8.42% of all matches in that league finished
0-0 in the 2009/2010 season and 6.58% in the 2010/2011 season. 7.5% in
total over the 760 games.
SPP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

42

If we analyse results that qualify as an ANY OTHER result on


Betfair.com (any game where at least one team scored 4 or more goals)
we see that out of a total of 760 games 673 results fell outside of the
ANY OTHER bet and 87 were covered by ANY OTHER. This means
that only 11.45% of all of these games produced a score-line of 4 or more
goals to one (or both) team(s).

On the face of it that seems like quite a large percentage of the results but,
and this is critical, those statistics include every single game played, hot
favourites and all, and we are removing any game (according to our
filters) where one team is clearly a very strong favourite.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

43

In addition any game where the perception of potentially many goals is


indicated through the over/under markets is also being removed. Also (as
you will see) we are coming out of games during the match once we can
secure a profit and with many of those 11.45% of games we would have
locked our profit in LONG BEFORE the end result.

In addition, we are disposing of games where 0-0 seems highly likely


(very low odds). The principle point here is that even taking ALL games
into account, this still leaves a highly favourable probability towards an
end result not being 4 goals or more to one team (and we can be out of
the game early in a 4 plus goals to one team situation anyway so reducing
our liabilities). Let me just dwell a moment on this logically.

Would it be fair to say that very few games are going to produce 4 goals
to one team within the first half? Or indeed, would it be fair to say that
very few games would produce even 3 goals to one team in the first half?
After all, you have just seen the TOTAL number of games producing 4 or
more goals to one side in the full 90 minutes over the last two seasons of
the UK Premier League and that was only 87 games out of 760.

Now let us be clear, you will find yourself at times on such games. This is
because football is very unpredictable and some teams just have - let us
call it WEIRD - days but the principle starting point here is that we
attempt to avoid as many of those games as we can,.
44

FACT:

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Our experience of monitoring well over 2500 games in 16 months prior to


the first release of ASP told us that very few games indeed have 3 goals
by half time to one team, let alone 4 and we can almost always get out at
some point with a small profit on the games that are 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2 and
2-2 at half time. And we can ALWAYS get out with a good profit on 1-0,
0-1 and 1-1 games at half time, and there are a lot of those.
ASP
Let me really play devils advocate here and combine those games that
ended within the realm of the ANY OTHER result with those that ended
0-0 (even though it is impossible to lose on both of those results in one
game of course).

Out of the total 760 games in the UK Premier League over the 2009/2010
and 2010/2011 seasons 146 ended in a score-line that we do not want.
That is 19.2% of all of those games.

If we took no further action in a game whatsoever beyond our initial lays,


the nature and total of the liabilities created by our lays (specifically using
the figures that Geoff always uses) mean that we could lose no more than
5 times the maximum amount we can win and, of course, we would
always win the maximum amount on those games that did not end 0-0 or
with an ANY OTHER result.

Let me also be totally clear about why I am quoting statistics from the
UK Premier League over the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 seasons. It is
simply because these were the last full statistics available to me before I
launched ASP for the first time and the statistics dont really change. Oh,
and remember we might not have layed the team that scored 4 goals!
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

45

Lets now look at the English Championship (League 2).


ASP

552 games

552 games

If we repeat our Premier League exercise we see that out of 1104 games
in total, 108 would fall into the ANY OTHER box. This equates to only
9.8% of the total within the Championship. 7% ended 0-0.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

46

We could continue analysing this data forever but we will leave that to
you after we just also quickly look at a couple of other big leagues. How
about the senior league in Spain:

380 games

380 games

ANY OTHER percentage of the total is 92 out of 760 so that equates to


12.10%. 0-0 results accounted for 58 games which is 7.63%.

Let us also look at the Italian premier league.


ASPSP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

47

380 games

380 games

For Italy the situation is that we have 62 from a total of 760 games (so a
tiny little 8.16% of all games) ending inside the ANY OTHER
parameters. Italy seems like a really good bet considering this is ALL
games including those that would have fallen out owing to our filters. 0-0
games were 65 (8.55%).
ASP

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

48

Simply because I have always known it to be a low goal scoring region


for football, let us also have a quick look at Greece.

240 games

240 games

28 games from 480, just 5.83% of Greek Premier League games ended in
the ANY OTHER box (and you thought Italy was a good bet!). 41 games
ended in a 0-0 score-line, just 8.5%.

That 0-0 statistic in Greece surprised me and should surprise you. It tells
me that a low incidence of 4 or more goals to one side does not create a
high incidence of 0-0. That must be highly encouraging.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

49

I assumed, quite naturally, that a low ANY OTHER experience would


result in a high 0-0 experience but the reality is the complete opposite.
They are not much higher than the 7.5% UK Premier experience.

With the UK Premier stats we saw that 0-0 occurred 57 times out of 760.
That is some 7.5% of the time. This means that 92.5% of games finished
with at least one goal having been scored. Only 11.45% of all games
covered by these stats, remember, have one team scoring 4 goals or more.

Given our filters where we can disqualify the games where there is an
overwhelming favourite and a high probability of over 2.5 goals we can
dramatically increase our chances of finding games that end with a scoreline that we seek and that score-line is, in its simplest terms, anything
other than 0-0 that is not covered by ANY OTHER in the correct score
market.

Caution: You will not always be able to find these stats for the more
obscure leagues so you might take the view, as a result, that the more
obscure should be avoided but there is always a web site devoted to even
the most obscure league where you can number crunch for yourself. We
would love to hear about any interesting statistics you come across.

By choosing fairly equally matched teams, spending a little time, as


above, looking at the statistics between various leagues and using a few
other analytical tools, we can show you a path to Assured Soccer Profits
with a very small downside risk. The statistics used here have come from
soccerstats.com a site I highly recommend you frequent if you want to
check out some statistics of your own.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

50

I would also suggest you spend some time looking at soccerbot.com.


They have an excellent, at a glance, league grid; here are the UK
Premiership results. (Apologies if the detail is a little hard to see clearly).

If we just take a snapshot of this grid above we see Arsenal had been
involved in 4 games during this season that would have resulted in us
possibly taking an ANY OTHER loss and in all 4 they would have been
firm (sub 1.7) favourites, believe me, so we would not have been on those
games.

We see Chelsea involved in 5 such games and, again, it has to be said for
certain they would have been firm (sub 1.7) favourites. Manchester
United another 5 such games and Manchester City another 4 such games
where they would have likely been absolute clear favourites.
ASP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

51

That is 18 of the total 36 games in the season illustrated that ended as an


ANY OTHER result. That leaves only 18 from 360 that could have
possibly hurt us, or 5%. And we may not have layed that team remember.

Do you begin to see how safe this is?

When carrying out this type of analysis, you can always ignore 0-0. As
you will see, when you lose on 0-0 it is going to be very small amounts as
we always get out of this potential result at half time or very shortly
before half time or we massively reduce the liability. If you plan to get
out with 5 minutes to go to half time you more often than not come out
without leaving a 0-0 liability at all but there are good reasons to leave a
small liability and keep some profit in the other scores if possible.

Also, by betting on in-play games only, if a game proves to be


unpredictable, we can choose to take evasive action and get out at any
time with a reduced loss, a small loss, break even or even with a small
profit on games that are not going the way wed like.
This makes the 4 periods of our strategy mentioned earlier seem, we
hope, a little clearer. Given what we have here, it is my absolute belief
that this soccer strategy will rapidly become the number 1 system you use
but please, dont go crazy with it.
Caution, always, must still be applied and it is worth remembering that
ANY team, regardless of league, country, position and status and the
view gained from applying the filters, can surprise us.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

52

You must also look out for extreme circumstances that can impact upon a
soccer match and I would recommend that time spent watching for those
extremes is time well spent. For example, a game played in extreme
weather conditions. Especially if one team may be used to that weather
and the other is not. You can refuse to bet on any problematic game.
ASP
You are going to encounter games like this and you have to accept it as
part of the process that does lead you to Assured Soccer Profits.

You will not make a profit on every game and you will have to accept
that you gain this profit over time by being consistent with your
approach, as Geoffs results spreadsheet very adequately shows, and
watch for the extreme all of the time so you can avoid it.

As another example, beware the red card. One sending off in a game
often results in the penalised team bolting down the hatches and
defending like Trojans. Two red cards to the same team in a game,
however, are almost certainly going to make it hard for them to keep out
goals. This is especially true where those cards have come early on. It
may be prudent to seek early exit from these games if it can be done even
if that requires you making a little loss on that game.

It is unlikely that the absence of a key player will make the difference
between 1 goal and 4 goals but the absence of a few key players could.
Just be aware of what is happening in a game wherever possible.
Fortunately flashscore.com also warns us when a red card is given with a
loud boo! Obviously you need to have your speakers turned up!

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

53

Its time to quickly recap and then expand with a real match example.
Quick Summary.
1. Is there an over-whelming match favourite? Yes then ignore that
game.
2. What are the odds on Under 2.5 goals?
3. What are the odds on the Under 3.5 goals?
4. What are the odds on 0-0 in the Correct Score Market?
5. What are the odds on ANY OTHER WIN (favourite team) in the
Correct Score Market?
6. How much liquidity is there in the Correct Score Market?

Placement Of The Bets, The Game And The Bets In Action.

From here on in, I will regularly refer to ANY OTHER as A.U. For ease,
this always relates now to ANY OTHER WIN (home or away depending
on who the favourite was) which, until December 2014 was referred to as
ANY UNQUOTED in the correct score market. With other exchanges
such as Betdaq, as of the end of February 2015, it still is referred to as
ANY UNQUOTED.

When you see references to ANY UNQUOTED or A.U. in the


publication, I havent gone mad. It is just that the original examples used
were captured when ANY UNQUOTED was what ANY OTHER WIN is
now. Although mostly re-written in 2015, large parts of the first draft are
still here and some of that was written as early as 2011.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

54

Just be aware that examples that follow from this point dealing with ANY
UNQUOTED would now be ANY OTHER WIN and you will be fine.
Just replace ANY UNQUOTED (AU) with ANY OTHER WIN when
looking at any example that uses the older version.

We would now always use ANY OTHER WIN, favourite side, almost
exclusively, But, as mentioned earlier, perhaps sometimes with a little on
the ANY OTHER WIN non-favourite side and maybe even a few pennies
on ANY OTHER DRAW for extra good measure. Only one of the three
ANY OTHER outcomes could ever happen after all.

You should remain as cautious as you can until you are trading from pure
profits. Having determined which match or matches qualify at this early
stage (remembering that, with experience, you can take on just about
anything) it is then time to place the bets.
To be more accurate, it is time to place the first of the bets (which Ive
done in the next image below) and then prepare to place the 2nd bet.

The first bet, of course, is a LAY bet on the ANY OTHER market and the
2nd is on the 0-0 market. In this example I have decided to do two straight
0-0 lays, one for 4 at odds of 10 and one for 3.35 at odds of 8. You can
choose the breakdown and amounts for yourself of course but I rarely do
a single, one-off 0-0 lay.
55

This image shows you the first bet (AU bet) taken at 11.17 (some at 11.5
and some at 11) and the broken down 0-0 bets waiting. The match had
just now kicked off and, at kick off, 0-0 stood at 14 to lay.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, I wanted odds of 10 for my first 0-0 lay. This is a
Belgium v Portugal under 19s International Competition game, a game
that you might consider to be a little risky for a complete novice because
of the lack of available form data (well get to form data later) between
the two teams but I thought it had potential.

At 25 minutes, just before the second part of my 0-0 lay was taken,
Belgium scored a goal and so I only got a 0-0 lay of 4 on this match. But
you will see that this is, however, plenty.

The good news was of course that the 0-0 liability showing below here of
32.80 had now gone and I didnt need to think about it again as the game
could not now end 0-0.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

56

My only possible liability moving on was the A.U. liability showing here
(next image) of 28.55.

57

The current score was 1-0 and if it had stayed at that score I would win
6.85 if I took no further action.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If I wanted to go for an ultra-cautious approach I could have backed out


of the AU liability right then (33 minutes in) for 1.97 (that is 28.55
divided by 14.5), leaving around 4.88 profit (6.85 - 1.97) on any score
that isnt A.U. However, I waited for half time.
At half time I can always decide on the action to take (if any) then. In
almost all cases I would secure the liability to make sure nothing can hurt
me but there is an argument to suggest that you could let it run on to the
end of the game for maximum profit.

You can decide to do so if you wish to take a little extra risk. The risk
then was Belgium scoring 3 more goals in the second half or Portugal
suddenly scoring 4. That isnt going to happen in very many games to be
fair but it could happen. And now, only one of those scoring 4 could hurt
us whereas back then it was either of them.

I believe that you should take the absolute no pain route wherever
possible. Making certain there is no loss on any outcome until you are so
comfortable with the strategy that you dont even need to think about it.
Even though I didnt get the extra 3.35 lay bet on 0-0 it is always worth
breaking down the placement of the 0-0 bet in my opinion. The reduced
odds achieved significantly reduce the liability and often a goal is scored
after the entire bet is matched. But you could decide that you only ever
want to make the first part of the 0-0 bet and, in so doing, keep 0-0
liabilities as low as possible also. That is a perfectly good strategy.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

58

It was half time in this old game and still 1-0 and so I decided to take a
reasonable profit from the game and move on.

I invested 1.32 on A.U. (by backing A.U.) at odds of 25. In the unlikely
event that someone did score 4 goals, I would get a consolation prize of
2.98 otherwise I would get 5.59. Please bear in mind here that:

a) This is a very common outcome.


b) My total lay stake in the end was only 7.20.
c) My biggest ever exposure was a 32.80 liability on 0-0 IF and
59

ONLY IF I took no further action and the game ended after 90


minutes with a 0-0 score-line and I am never going to take no
action!

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

d) The ANY UNQUOTED section is now ANY OTHER WIN


(HOME/AWAY/DRAW).

Can you see where the 4 to 5 average profit per game comes from?
This 5.59 has been achieved with stakes of just 7.20!

With The Bulk Of Our Matches.

The first goal is very often scored within 35 to 40 minutes and our full lay
bet on 0-0, more often than not, matched by then, is a winner. Remember
that thanks to the fact that we also put a lay bet on ANY OTHER we are
often looking at a winning game where we can utilise our full lay stake of
around 10.50 (reduced by commission of approximately 5% of course)
and assuming that our staking levels are that 10.50 favoured by Geoff.

After the first goal the odds on A.U. will inevitably drop perhaps down to
as little as 5 or 6 or so if it is early enough in the game, but in the
absence of a quick additional goal, those odds will quickly climb out
again as you saw with the Belgium v Portugal under 19 game.

Half time came with the score 1-0 and the A.U. odds (the only odds we
would now be concerned with) were about 20 (but they are frequently
higher at this point). If I want to I can take the ultra-cautious approach
now and back A.U. using a portion of my profit. But statistics tell me that
I am in an exceedingly good position.

If I prefer I could take the full 10 (plus) profit from this match.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

60

At the very least, I could wait until the ANY OTHER price has gone out
to 30 plus and then back it for caution with a very small part of my stake.

I backed at 25 in the example above because I generally take the view


that early GUARANTEED profit is the best kind of profit. You should
absolutely follow suit in the early days, but feel free to go for a little more
profit later on when you are staking all your games out of pure profit and
willing to take a few more chances.

This is another real game example using a match between Almeria and
Santander on 3rd March 2011. The cheer had gone up on flashscore.com
and Santander had scored making it 0-1 and (co-incidentally) I had just
spotted that Santander had also been awarded a red card, so getting out
made sense and this proved to be a good educational opportunity.

Now at 37 minutes in I certainly wouldnt normally worry too much


about having to try to green up right now; meaning make every
outcome a profit or, at least, a no loss outcome.

But given the red card it is conceivable that you might do just that in
this situation just in case Santander collapsed and the red carded player
was a key defender.

Once the market settled down after suspension, this was the situation:
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

61

As you can see, getting out of the 69 liability on A.U. right then would
be possible for only 2.47 (69 divided by 28) but I decided to get out in
stages and I felt sure I could go for a near maximum profit here as I was
always confident that this game would not be peppered with goals.
Besides it then served as another quick example of using sub 2 stakes.

I started by placing a bet at odds that cannot possibly be achieved right at


that exact time for the normal 2. I had asked for odds of 150.
This is because I want to be certain that the 2 isnt wasted because the
odds requested are suddenly available while I am still placing the bet. The
idea is NOT to get matched for the 2 stake.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

62

I calculated that it would cost me around 46 pence to place the bet I


actually wanted to place so I now increase that 2 bet waiting to 2.46.

This is how Betfair.com presented the alteration back then, nothing has
really changed as you will see from the Profit Magnets video today.
ASP

63

I now had my original 2 bet and my new 46 pence bet separated and
could now just simply delete the original 2 bet by clicking the little
white on red X leaving just the 46 pence bet in place.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

This bet wasnt taken in the end (but almost was) as, just before the 150
odds became available, there was an equalizer and the market suspended
again. That 1-1 score-line remained and the full profit of 10.46 was
taken. Nevertheless, you now have another break down on how to get the
sub 2 bet on to go along with the video on Profit Magnets.

I could have just let the 46p bet go on at current odds of course after the
equaliser but I decided not to bother in the end. Please remember that I
could have spent a little more than 46 pence at any time earlier in the
game to clear that 69 liability. I do not recommend you wait like this
until you are playing from accumulated profits.

When Things Go Wrong (AND THEY WILL).

The fact is some games WILL go wrong. Just both ACCEPT that and
EXPECT that before you start using this system.

It is quite possible that the very first game you choose may turn out to be
a loser. The first 3 games you try might all be losers. There is no logic
in football and you should be aware that, whilst statistical information is a
great guide to probability, it is a snap shot only of what happens overall,
over time.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

64

It is critical that you work from a betting bank tied to liabilities and I
suggest that you do not exceed 10% of your allocated bank as an absolute
maximum liability on one game if at all possible.

You can be a little flexible here if you are not planning on trading more
than one game at the same time. Perhaps, by going one game at a time,
you can start with a 15% maximum liability but I recommend 10%. So, if
your bank is 300 try to keep your biggest lay liability at 30 or, at worst,
45 if you follow 15% as a maximum liability.

I have personally never had more than two losing games in a row that I
would call cataclysmic (losing the maximum in game liability and
wiping my full 10%). And I take more risks than most ever would
because I know the system so well. I have heard from customers that
managed 3 games in a row that lost but, again, I am not aware of any that
did that and lost the maximum liability in all of those games. That said
there will be some who simply gambled, waited and hoped.
You need to think, always, in terms of 100s of games and the long term
profit. Dont try to make hundreds per week; you will get it wrong if you
chase it too hard!

And generally, the only way, barring exceptional circumstances (Internet


goes down on you for example), to lose without reducing your liability in
game at all is to take NO ACTION.

If you bet this strategy over 100 games there is a certainty of profit if you
are doing it right and it is EASY profit using one betting market.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

65

If youve experienced the frustration of having bets refused by bookies


because you win you will know how valuable it is to be able to use one
simple market in one place to make all of your profit without ever being
barred or restricted.

Nevertheless, be aware that you could end up with a loss in theory over 5
or even 10 games in short order although this is highly unlikely if you
follow the rules as losses should always be pretty small.

If this should happen, what you must never do is start to think that you
are somehow cursed with extra-ordinary bad luck and, whatever you do,
you seem to lose. I know people with this attitude and I am convinced
that they EXPECT this to happen and so it does happen.

Anyone in the least bit familiar with the theory of the Law of Attraction
will know that some serious people believe that we get what we attract
with our thoughts so beware even if you think all of what Ive just said is
nonsense. I always EXPECT to win and I generally do win, but hey, not
all of the time!
ASP
So, What Of An Early Goal?

Having made your ANY OTHER lay, you now want to lay 0-0. You put
in a request for a bet at lower odds than those currently showing for 0-0.
A very early goal can sometimes be scored before you have your lay 0-0
bet accepted and it would appear now that you have missed your chance.
Dont panic!

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

66

Remember you are still in a winning position at this stage because of your
ANY OTHER lay and the only thing is that now the profit pot is not as
big as it could have been.

You could just leave it there and wait for good enough odds to back ANY
OTHER and leave the game with perhaps a very small profit. Or your
next move could be to lay the present score in the same way you were
going to lay the 0-0 score-line. The odds on offer will, in all probability,
be better than those that were on offer previously on the 0-0 score-line or
at least around the same. If they are larger, you simply dont lay them.
Remember, you need do nothing here at all, after a goal, if that makes
you feel more comfortable. If it is 1-0 or 0-1 and you dont have a 0-0 lay
and you still want to add to your potential profit pot, then simply allow
the same time you would have allowed with 0-0 and lay 1-0/0-1 for a
small amount and perhaps again in small chunks as the odds reduce.

If you take a look at the earlier tables on the score-line experience from
the major football leagues, you will see that games ending as 1-0 or 0-1
scores at full time are almost as uncommon as 0-0. So, with a very early
goal, consider laying the current score but dont go mad (maybe just 2 or
even 1), just lay to a point where the liability you create on that scoreline is one that you could cope with losing if the game stayed at that score
to the very end.
67

Mostly, another goal will be scored and youre back in business.


3 Quick Goals For One Team.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

A team scoring 3 goals in quick succession, if they are the team we


layed with our ANY OTHER bet will threaten our ANY OTHER bet
liability where we are exposed to our largest potential loss. Obviously,
when the goals are scored is of vital importance.

The biggest thing to remember is this; do not panic! There are still many
things that could happen, not least of which is that the horrifying 4 th goal
may never come!

If there are 3 quick goals in succession to one team at an early stage in the
game there is little we can do other than roll up our sleeves and attack our
potential liability in stages. Start by laying the 3 goal current score-line.
In doing this you reduce the ANY OTHER exposure and you create a
new potential loss in the current score-line.

Let us say that the score is 3-0 and the odds (after the market re-settles)
on 3-0 are 7. Let us say that we have a 35 ANY OTHER liability and
our potential profit pot (the lay stakes made so far) is only 3.

If we lay 3-0 for 5 at 7 we create a liability of 27 on the current score.

If decimal odds are relatively new to you, just remember, always remove
1 from the odds, thus 7 becomes 6 for your calculations.
So the calculation here is 5 x 6 = 30 3 = 27. Remember the 3 of
pre-existing potential profit on 3-0. We reduce the ANY OTHER liability
to 30. And we have just added 5 to all other score pots. This is
important.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

68

You can alter these figures to suit where you feel more comfortable,
maybe lay for 6 or 4 and so on. Now the game could end at the current
score, on our exposed ANY OTHER score but maybe even at 3-1 or 3-2
or 3-3.

If any of those last 3 results proved to be the end result and we did no
more, we would now win 8 because we added the 5 to all other scorelines. And this does happen. Moreover we can now continue to roll over
our liabilities if the score changes again and if we choose to.
ASP
Lets say it goes from 3-0 to 3-1. Our 3-0, 27 liability has gone now, this
result cannot happen. We now have an 8 pot on 3-1. We lay 3-1 (lets
say the odds are 5) for 8. We create a 24 liability on 3-1. Heres how:
We have 8 there to start, we have made a lay at odds of 5 for 8 so the
calculation is 8 x 4 = 32 - 8 = 24. We reduce the liability on ANY
OTHER now to 22 by doing this. We have improved our position by at
least 3 in the worst scenario by now incurring a 24 loss if the score
stays the same instead of a 27 loss AND our potential profit on 3-2 or 33 has become 16.
And then the score goes to 3-2. What could we do? Youve guessed it, we
could lay 3-2. Assume the odds are 4. We lay for 9 and we create a
liability of 11 on 3-2. We reduce the ANY OTHER liability to 15 and
our position now is drastically improved all around and the game could
still end at 3-3 giving us a profit of 25.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

69

Take a little time out and think about these numbers and play with them
until you are comfortable with the concept. Remember that as you LAY
one result you improve the profit by the lay amount on the other possible
results.

Also remember, you could take the view at 3-0 that it absolutely will go
to 4-0 or more and instead of just laying 3-0 for 5, you could lay it for a
bigger stake and therefore reduce the ANY OTHER liability further.

2 Goals To One Team Early On And More Get Out Of Jail


Information.

In fact, it must be said that 2-0 to any team early on in the game will
depress the ANY OTHER price dramatically if the goals come to the
team that you layed ANY OTHER for. If they come for the other team of
course, you would be very happy indeed as there is now a much smaller
chance of that ANY OTHER lay causing you a problem.
Assuming the two goals do come for the team youd prefer they didnt
come for, the odds could drop down to the 4s and 5s (even lower) and
perhaps stay there for some considerable time (maybe even to 60 or 70
minutes) and, as a result, make it unlikely that you can comfortably back
out of your ANY OTHER liability and get into profit everywhere.

The secret with 2-0 is to most definitely not panic and be prepared to wait
into the 2nd half. If the third goal goes in before the situation has
improved, see the situation above relating to 3 goals.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

70

The good news is that, given our filters, this situation is not going to be so
common and many more games will give you every chance to settle
everything in profit at half time. When 2-0 happens now it is often the
case that it is not to the team we have layed and this is where the new
ANY OTHER WIN (home or away) system gives us an advantage that
we never used to have with the old ANY UNQUOTED system.

Besides, again, remember that 4-0 does not always, or even frequently,
become the outcome after two quick goals, or 4-1 or 4 anything. Teams
often ease off when they feel in control early and protect the lead.

These quick 2-0 games can often become highly profitable because you
waited and the next goal is a response from the losing team taking the
game to 2-1. After settling, the market can then change dramatically.

What is common, as we have seen on several occasions, is the third goal


going in much later in the game with only a few minutes (or certainly less
than 15 or 20 minutes) to go. You may have an opportunity prior to this
3rd goal of backing ANY OTHER and going to profit everywhere or, if
you feel more at ease in doing this, perhaps reduce the ANY OTHER
liability you have and use all of your current potential profit to do so.

For example, if there is 10 in the potential profit pot, use this 10 to


back ANY OTHER, so reducing the liability and leave all other outcomes
at 0 or maybe just leave them at a 1 in profit. Now, the odds at a later
stage of a game, to lay 2-0 or 3-0 could well be down to as little as 1.2 or
even 1.1 depending on exactly when this is.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

71

And, if you were concerned about the impending danger of the game
going to 4-0 because of a final, desperate push, you would be able to
dramatically reduce the ANY OTHER liability by laying this current
score.

Look out for this opportunity, especially on 3-0. I have had games
standing at 3-0 where I had already previously made all outcomes green
and I decided to lay 3-0 for 20 at really low odds, 1.15 or even 1.10 so
reducing my 3-0 profit from around 8 to 5 but improving the result
dramatically on all other possible scores.

I would normally only do this if I was monitoring the game closely and
could see the side that were 3-0 up were putting massive pressure on the
others.
Sure enough, if the 4th goal comes in that situation you can make 25 plus
easily after commission as a result.

So remember, a 4 goal score-line does not always mean a disaster. The


real secret is to make it a policy to never have any huge liabilities to start
with. I dont really like starting with more than a 50 liability anywhere
but I will go higher because of my betting bank size.

OK, I do also sometimes go higher when I think that further research


alone merits it, hence the Almeria v Santander game.

I feel that a further explanation on this rolling on of liabilities will help so


I will now relate it to that Almeria v Santander game directly.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

72

Let us assume that it is 80 minutes into that game with its 69 ANY
UNQUOTED (back then) liability and it is 3-1 to Almeria. Let us further
assume that you can lay that current score for 1.50 (it could easily be
lower odds).

To eradicate the 69 A.U. liability altogether would require that you set
up a new liability of 24.04 on the current 3-1 score-line (69 x .5 =
34.50 less the 10.46 existing 3-1 pot = 24.04). In so doing, the A.U.
outcome would not have a liability (or a profit) as you just deleted that
69 potential loss.

But what if it then went to 3-2? You would have a 79.46 profit suddenly
if that were to stay as the end result (and these things do happen).
ASP
Why? Because, in laying that 69 away from the 3-1 score, you add that
69 to every other possible score. You can then lay 3-2 immediately if
you so wish to create a profit on A.U. as well without taking much off of
the 3-2 profit pot.
Maybe you didnt want to eradicate the entire 69 A.U. liability and risk
the 24.04 loss on the current score (you are in charge). So what about if
you were to lay 50 at 1.50? Then you would have a 14.54 liability on
the current score and a 19 liability on A.U. if the 4th goal comes and
always remember you can vary this to suit how you feel. Do remember to
now relate this to ANY OTHER WIN.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

73

There are many ways to organise where the liability (if you still have one)
sits towards the end of the game and you should never forget you are in
total control here. Just dont ever panic. Think it through logically and
make sure that what you are about to do NEVER makes the worst
scenario for you cost even more than it would have done before you took
this action.

Also, whilst there are only a few critical times where you need to be
monitoring the market, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the back
price for ANY OTHER WIN as the odds at or soon after half time can be
high enough to allow us to eliminate that exposure at minimal cost.

The cost might only be 1 or even less or only a little more than 1 and
most people like the feeling of being free of any risk of loss, I certainly
do. It is unusual to have a 1-0 score-line at half time that doesnt allow for
this.

Also watch the surrounding score-lines to where the score currently ease.
Cheap lays on 2-0 at 1-0 for example, can be made or 2-1 at 1-0. Im sure
you get the picture.

The most extreme situation you ever encounter, and this is quite rare, is a
game with a 0-0 score-line at half time that turns into an absolute mare in
the second half. This has become known as a perfect storm. It is when
you leave the ANY OTHER liability as it was at half time on a particular
game and then the unthinkable happens and the home team if you are on
ANY OTHER HOME WIN or away team if you are on ANY OTHER
AWAY WIN go on to score 4 goals in the second half.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

74

This has happened to me and, on occasions, it was when I had stopped


watching the market and the game. Is this worth worrying about?
Absolutely not, it is hardly a daily occurrence!

If the game gets to 3 goals really early you are always going to be a little
nervous and the fact is that a 69 liability on ANY OTHER, such as I had
in the Santander game, is probably a little ridiculous for someone starting
out anyway. Typically, when new to this, you are going to be laying ANY
OTHER for around 3 or perhaps 4. Even if you were laying at odds of
20, a 3 lay creates only a 57 liability.

When you get your 0-0 lay in (call that 4 also in total), you have then
reduced that ANY OTHER liability to 53. In reality the average lay
price on ANY OTHER is around 11 or 12 but even if it were 14 my
normal ANY OTHER liability would be well under 69.

There is no doubt whatsoever that a staking level at around 10 to 10.50


on ANY OTHER and 0-0 combined to create a nice 10 potential profit
pot to start the game off with is a good template to begin but you can
make this smaller and should if you want to keep liabilities well pinned
down. As stated before, you should paper trade for a while before risking
anything!

Remember, you can increase profits by increasing the number of


games. This is much safer than increasing the stakes on an individual
game!

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

75

What Of 0-0?

Let us just now look at 0-0. It is interesting to note that, roughly speaking,
the odds on 0-0 when that lay bet is placed early in the game are
generally reduced by half by half time. So, for example, if you lay at 10,
the odds will be around 5 at half time (maybe 4.5) and so on. It is at this
half time point, or, preferably, just before at around 42 to 43 minutes,
that, if the score is still 0-0, a decision should be made to start to reduce
or eradicate the 0-0 liability.

You might argue that laying 0-0 is perhaps pointless if, a lot of the time,
you are then going to back 0-0 to stop the eventuality of losing money on
a 0-0 final result.

But, very frequently, there is a goal between your lay and the half time
whistle and also, do not forget that any 0-0 lay adds to the pot you started
with your ANY OTHER lay. This, as we have seen, is referred to as the
potential profit pot.
Just to add perspective to that. If you lay ANY OTHER for 4 you also
have this money available to you when backing 0-0 and, in this way, if
you take action at around the 40 minute plus mark (assuming the game is
still 0-0), you can often clear any 0-0 liability whilst still leaving a 1 or
2 on all other outcomes (except of course the ANY OTHER outcome).
76

However, I am actually astounded at how often there will be a goal in the


ten minute run up to the half time whistle (perhaps the lure of the half
time orange has taken their focus away from the game?)
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

TIP:

Think of 10 to 30 minutes as being a 0-0 lay period and roughly 36 to 45


minutes as being a 0-0 back period. Never lay from 30 minutes on, never
back before 36 minutes. Be guided by your feeling as to how the game
pans out. The reason why people panic is that they see the 0-0 odds
starting to drop rapidly at 30 minutes and onwards.

And in almost every case, this panic is enhanced because they layed at
odds that were too high overall and/or didnt break the lay down into
small bites. Seriously, please, watch the video at Profit Magnets so that
you can get into the habit of very small lays at reducing odds.

Also you can improve your chances of getting this right even more by
investing in a very smart tool that will seriously help.

There is a fabulous tool (piece of software) you can acquire in exchange


for a reasonable monthly subscription payment that will show where the
action is on any Betfair covered in-play football game. You can check
that out by clicking the link below:

FOOTBALL SCANNER

Why is that useful? Well, because if you can see that the home team is
hammering away at the away teams goal; that might make you more
confident that a goal is coming. It isnt, like everything else, 100%
infallible but it sure helps. If its a televised game you can watch it of
course if you have that channel.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

77

If a game is still 0-0 at or just before half time, you have to use a back bet
to:
a) Reduce the 0-0 liability down to zero or,
b) create an acceptable loss on all outcomes (ignoring your ANY
OTHER WIN lay of course) or,
c) reduce the liability some on a 0-0 outcome and make all other
outcomes (ignoring ANY OTHER again) no win/no lose.

In just about all cases, if you layed 0-0 properly, on shrinking odds, in
two or three instalments as it were, you should be able to take your 0-0
position (liability) down to a very acceptable position at -3 or -4 or
even less whilst protecting all other results apart from ANY OTHER
WIN.

If you are willing to accept a -2 or -3 loss on any outcome (aside again


from ANY OTHER WIN) then you will certainly always get out of jail
on these games where you fully layed 0-0 and it stayed that way until half
time, even if you took no early action between 36 and 45 minutes to back
out.
Please dont simply hope for a second half goal in these games, or you
could be committing yourself to a potentially big, unnecessary, loss. As I
said earlier, dont gamble unless you are well into using only profits
made already.
78

Inevitably, the worst scenario you can imagine will be the end result
when you gamble in this way.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I would only sanction this action if the odds were still unusually high to
back 0-0 and you could still get the 0-0 liability down to 0 as a result
later in the game. I keep saying words to the effect of except ANY
OTHER WIN. In reality, you can often massively reduce or even kill off
the liability on ANY OTHER WIN as well at half-time simply because
the odds to back it are huge (60, 70 100 even at times).

Opportunities With ANY OTHER WIN.

Look out for unusual opportunities to take a really low ANY OTHER
WIN price. It isnt always that the market knows best. I spotted one
between two Japanese teams in the illustration used next. This was also
back when it was ANY UNQUOTED.

Had it been a J-League game I may not have done this believing that the
market may have been right in its assessment that A.U. was highly likely
as a result (but that is just me and my experience talking). But this was an
AFC Cup match (Asian equivalent of the Champions League).

As it transpires, it was 0-0 at half time so, as an exercise, it conveniently


serves to show you that 0-0 at half time isnt a problem at all.

79

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Let me explain what led to the image above. I saw an A.U. price of 7 that
was, in my opinion, clearly opportunistic. I layed this and, in so doing,
created only a 37.80 liability a smaller liability than I normally had on
an A.U. lay.

I asked for and got a 0-0 lay for 4.25 at 11 to put my potential profit pot
at the normal 10 after commission. It stayed 0-0 then until 42 minutes
in. Rather than wait for half time and an even bigger drop in the 0-0 price,
I then took early action to exit and grabbed the (remarkable) 5.4 odds I
could still see and, at the same time, also backed A.U. at odds of 60 in
case the Asian fellers went mad in the 2nd half.
This is how it left me (sorry need to do this in two images as its a bit
big):

80

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, 0-0 at half time and no potential damage anywhere. The
result is below so you can see when the only goal was finally scored (88
minutes would you believe).
ASP

It has to be said that, the game and those odds and so on are not a-typical
of where you would normally be at half time. It was the result of a
ridiculously low A.U price to begin with (now of course that would be
ANY OTHER WIN price to begin with).

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

81

I am not suggesting that you would go on these games all of the time but
it has to also be said that cup games (and this was a last 16 stage cup
game) often produce very cautious play and I took advantage of that
because of my experience.

It should also be heavily stressed that it is hard to find meaningful head to


head data in cup games and, more importantly, hard to compare teams
from a different country and league. It is simple enough to compare UK
Premier League sides with UK Championship sides and other UK league
sides but not so easy when comparing across country borders.

A more typical situation in a game is that the 0-0 odds at half time would
be down to 4 or below. Let us revisit that Osaka game with assumed half
time 0-0 odds of 3.8 to back (which is a very common level).

I had a -42.50 liability on 0-0 and a potential profit pot of 10.55 before
commission on all other scores except ANY UNQUOTED. We can
ignore A.U as you would always deal with A.U. separately and later
under normal circumstances. I just wanted to demonstrate how all
liabilities could be covered in this particular example.

So we have a 10.55 profit pot to use. The 0-0 odds are now 3.8 to back
and were you to use all 10.55 to back 0-0 this would take 29.54 off of
the 0-0 liability of -42.50 leaving still a -12.96 liability on 0-0 and 0
(no win, no lose) on all other outcomes except A.U.

But you could try to leave almost the same result (small liability) on all
outcomes other than A.U/ANY OTHER WIN.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

82

To do that, you would divide the 12.96 left over liability calculated
above (thats if we had used 10.55 to back 0-0) by the available odds,
thus 12.96 divided by 2.8 which equals 2.83.

This 2.83 is the additional stake we would then place on 0-0. So now,
instead of 10.55 we back 0-0 for 13.88 at 3.8, this leaves 0-0 at 42.50
- 38.86 = -3.64 and all other score-lines (except A.U/AOW.) at -3.33
(10.55 minus 13.88).
Dont get hung up by the maths, these are simple calculations once you
are used to them and go through them a few times. And that is the key,
GO THROUGH THEM A GOOD FEW TIMES.

The reality is that, for most users, little or no time is spent on studying
real form or conditions on a possible game but, having said that, the best
way to improve your chance of not getting on a bad game is to increase
the input of information available to you. In doing so, you will start to
develop an expectation of how a game will play out. This expectation is
the critical link that takes a novice into the realms of experienced football
trader.

Judging a game on odds alone is a pretty good guide because odds are
remarkably accurate. But seeking certain other information in addition to
merely looking at odds based filters, will show you patterns of play and
patterns of results.

Some Common Sense Set Up Advice.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

83

Before going on to this additional information, I just want to stress that,


even after adding additional research prior to a match, you must
understand that any match can still confound your expectations and not
go according to plan.

Also, before looking at any additional information that is useful to you


and where to find it, Id like to deal a little with how you set yourself up
to trade effectively.

You should know by now that this method of correct score trading is
totally dependent upon the use of the Betfair betting exchange but what if
Betfair was down, their site not working? It pays to get yourself a backup account with another exchange and the 2nd best is almost certainly
Betdaq.com. You will rarely use it but to have it is, nevertheless, prudent
just in case.

Imagine you layed a score-line on Betfair and then needed to back to


create profit or safety by backing that same score-line and you then
discovered that Betfair had crashed and the site was not working? This is
where the other exchange account could suddenly be very handy.

It is not sensible to hope to find the exact bet you wanted at a bookmaker
site but Betdaq are likely to have it. Do remember that Betdaq still use (as
I write this) ANY UNQUOTED instead of ANY OTHER WIN/DRAW.
84

On a different subject, a good point to note on the flashscore.com, live


score site, is that, for ease, you can add every match on which you bet in
the My Games section of flashscore.com.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

If you are betting on several matches at the same time it is imperative that
matches are not ignored or worse, forgotten and the cheer alarm that
you hear through your speakers will alert you to goals being scored.
Heres an image of the flashscore.com main daily page:

I tend to mostly operate the Assured Soccer Profits System on two,


sometimes three, monitors but this isnt essential (could be a PC and a
phone of course). This just makes it easier for me to run multiple matches
at one time whilst also doing other things.

It is just as easy really to switch between multiple tabs on your PC


browser and, keeping it as simple as possible at the beginning is wise.
One game at a time will get you there soon enough.

The final piece of set-up information I want to impart is the most critical.
Make sure you are ready to trade. Try to keep any distractions at a
minimum and, until you are really comfortable, it does pay to focus on
this exclusively. Try not to trade when youve been drinking as this might
make you take more risks than you should. Enough said

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

85

A Recap Before Moving On To Additional Information.

The Assured Soccer Profits System is an easy to use, low risk system
which provides small but consistent profits. In essence two opposing bets
are placed at or near the beginning of a football match and we then
respond to the first goal, if there is one, or work to at least heavily reduce
any potential loss if there isnt by half-time.
The majority of all of your matches will result in a win of a variable
amount and the remainder are going to break even or lose a little.

Occasionally, and you need to just accept this, one game could cost you
the profit from maybe even 4 or 5 games (possibly even more) but you
will be assured of your profits overall. Master the exit strategies to ensure
minimal or no loss as often as possible. Practise makes perfect and the
more that you do on paper without committing money at first, the better
off you will be in the long run.

There are many possible methods to reduce losses when unexpected or


freak scores are encountered and you may even come up with a few
yourself, perhaps even using markets outside of the correct score market
such as the next goal market or total goals market.

The potential for new exit strategies here is huge but if you test for any
yourself, please do test them thoroughly and ON PAPER.

ASP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

86

Additional Information, Optional Selection Filters.

It always pays to check out a little more information if you can before
committing to trading a game. So lets look at a few basics. This is the inhouse Betfair head to head data to do with a game this evening between
Brighton and Leeds (this evening as I write this section of course).

These stats can be found at the bottom of most Betfair market screens and
they serve as a useful quick guide to head to head form. The closer they
are in the league normally, the closer they are in form and it helps to see
how many times, critically, they have scored 4 goals in recent games and
how often they have been in 0-0 outcomes recently.
87

That isnt to say that a 4 goal recent result is an instant disqualification


from trading any more than recent 0-0 scores are.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

What I would recommend is that you should be very cautious with 0-0
results IF there has been a tendency towards them on either side. This
should influence how you approach 0-0. My golden rule on 0-0 is that if
it seems more likely in a game than you feel is ideal, then just trade 0-0
gently. I will trade this game this evening but I will tread very carefully
with 0-0 as you will see.

You can see that Brighton, in their last home game, beat Birmingham 4-3.
Had we been on that game it would not have, on the face of it, been a
good result for us with the ASP system. But the key statement there is
on the face of it as the image below will show:

As you can see the game stood at 1-1 at half-time and this is actually
pretty perfect to get out with profit everywhere on ASP and it goes some
way to re-inforce what was said earlier. That was, even in games that end
with 4 goals to one side, we do not necessarily have ourselves a loser.
In addition this explains my earlier statement that isnt to say that a 4
goal recent result is an instant disqualification from trading
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

88

When you look at Brighton v Leeds, in their last 3 meetings, no more


than two goals to one side has been achieved and this game, for me, has
every indication of being a good ASP game and so I am going to trade it.

Before I do however, I am going to introduce you properly to the best


external resource I know of for really comparing teams, patterns of play
and head to head form.

This involves spending a little time on soccerway.com a totally free


resource full of information on more leagues than youll ever need. I
didnt get a chance to capture useful images from soccerway.com that
relate directly to Brighton v Leeds pre-game as the game is about to start
as I write this but I will come back to this after the game, probably
tomorrow or the day after now, and show you the information I saw on
Brighton V Leeds.

For now it is enough to know that this is what I checked earlier to make
my final assessment on the game.
Ive moved on, it is 2 days later as I write this and the following images
were taken after the game but I do show you, a little further on, some
Betfair images of the game that I traded. Confusing isnt it, but its all
about time and concentration. Im not a woman and so I do not have their
finally tuned multi-tasking skills, mores the pity.
89

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

The first step upon arrival at the soccerway.com site is to go to the


relevant competition section. In my case here I want the UK
Championship. I find this under the England section in the drop down.

90

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Having clicked that I will find Championship listed.

Remember now that the following images are from after the Brighton v
Leeds game that I actually traded but they will still serve us very well.

91

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Scrolling down that page leads me to the current league table where I am
particularly interested in digging down into head to head data once I click
on the compare two teams button at the very bottom of the table.

In the head to head sections I can find much useful data starting with the
most recent results between the two, going back some 4 or 5 seasons.

92

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Note that between them there is no record of 4 goals scored by one team
on display. You can look back further by clicking on previous at the
top/right side above the fixture results.

Note, even then, going right back to 2005, still no 4 goal results. Now,
once again, this does not mean that 4 goals to one side in this game could
not happen. ANYTHING can happen in football but you can see how
such a result would seriously buck a long-term trend.

What else does soccerway.com have for me? Well, if I scroll down the
page a bit further

93

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Studying the image above I can see most recent game results from both
teams and, again, if I wish to, I can go back much further by clicking the
previous link. Here I want to know about extreme results (4 + and 0-0)
that could hurt us. I am looking for a pattern, particularly, of 4 plus goals
as a warning. We looked at that 4-3 result Brighton had against
Birmingham a little earlier and concluded that it was not a danger sign as
it was 1-1 at half-time. It also seems exceptional rather than common
with Brighton.

I do tend to have a cursory glance at earlier games sometimes (by


clicking the previous link - top right of image above) but it is only the last
few seasons that really give you a useable picture of results because, of
course, there comes a point at which the team personnel would be totally
different.

The next image shows a section on this same page that you can scroll
down to that I do pay very close attention to:

94

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

This is an in-depth team comparison covering much that interests me. For
example, the teams are very similar with their results of 38 goals for
(Brighton) in 33 games and 34 goals for (Leeds) in 33 games. This of
course would have been one game less prior to the fixture I traded but
that takes nothing away from the value of the data.

I particularly compare Brighton at home with Leeds away as that is the


dynamic on the game that I traded (would be trading). As can be seen
overall goals per game shows an average of 1.15 goals per game for
Brighton and 1.03 goals per game for Leeds. It doesnt seem like theres a
strong likelihood of 4 goals going in. This particular piece of data is also
very handy when looking at the under 2.5 goals odds. You can see why,
in this game on 24th February, under 2.5 goals odds were well under 2.

With these two teams you must go back to 2011 to see a game between
them where one scored 3 goals, let alone 4. So what else can
soccerway.com tell us? Also useful is the average time of first goal
scored. Ive highlighted that above as well.
Go just a little lower down the page and you can also get to look at when,
typically, the goals that these teams score are scored. Now you cant ever
read too much into this information as any kind of bad defensive error
can suddenly lead to a really early goal against expectation but that is the
key. The most useful thing you can have when going into a game is an
expectation of how it will play out. Without an expectation of how it
will play out, how can you ever tell if something unexpected has just
happened?

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

95

It isnt sufficient, by the way, to say I always expect that not much will
happen any more than it is particularly useful to say something daft like
I always expect my games to go wrong.
So as a guide to help us to our in-game expectation, this next image is
very useful but only for that purpose and only useful when a season is
well under way and some data has amassed. Early in the season? Look at
last season but remember much could have changed.

You need to look at the overall picture for each team. Mostly, Brighton
score more between 30 and 45 minutes after pretty slow starts to their
games. They then have slow second half starts and burst into action come
the 60 to 75 minute slot. Then comes that all important last 15 minutes
that, of course, includes any final game injury/stoppage time.

Leeds show a similar pattern but get their final push on later. Leeds seem
very slow to get into gear in the second half and this is indicative of a
team who, all too often, are chasing a deficit towards the end. Brighton
seem to build more pressure in the second half (note that curve I have
drawn in).
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

96

You can see a pattern with many teams with this action period in the last
section in half one and also the last section of half two. These do tend to
be, statistically, the most prolific of all goal scoring periods as a rule
anyway so I would expect to see that often.

But you can sometimes spot real, consistent, stand-out trends. The
Brighton v Leeds image does not show a stand-out trend of any
magnitude. If anything, it shows the most common type of trend. So let
me find you one that does show a pattern that would give me a very clear
expectation on the game.

Look at Manchester City compared to Chelsea. It seems that City come


out and build pressure all the way. They feel out the opposition and bed
in for the first two sections of a game and then start to step it up from 30
minutes onwards and keep stepping it up until the end.

Chelsea are pretty compulsive themselves but they do seem to show a


burst of action once the whistle is first blow to start the game and then
noticeably back off until 60 minutes. Interestingly, neither of these teams
show the usual high goal scoring trend in the 30 to 45 minute section.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

97

I do hope that this expectation idea makes sense because it helps me


very much in my assessment of any game and time spent on
soccerway.com is time very well spent.

The Brighton V Leeds Game.


Remember, I always start off with an expectation of where the game is
likely to go based on what I have seen with the odds filters and the
additional input I gain from soccerway.com and so this game, in my
head, was already likely to be a slow, low scoring affair (1 goal in the
first half maybe) but I must also acknowledge that Brighton have been
involved in two fairly recent 0-0 affairs and this is nagging at the back of
my mind where the 0-0 lay is concerned.

This will shape my staking balance between ANY OTHER HOME WIN
and 0-0. As you can see in the following image, I have already set the
game up ready to trade, note how very cautious I was on 0-0 given what I
said about Brightons recent 0-0 affairs.

98

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

I have layed ANY OTHER HOME WIN for 3 creating a potential


liability there of 46.50. I would have liked to stake more given the lack
of 4 goal games displayed by these two but the odds are too high really to
go bigger. I have then set up 4, 1 lays, on 0-0 at odds between 8 and 5.
As you can see in the next image, 0-0 odds currently stand at 11:

I have also highlighted the current potential profit pot after commission
on that image. You can set your Betfair screens up to show figures net of
commission yourself easily enough (I will show you later). In this case
my screen is showing 2.85 (3 less commission) which would all be
gained, so far, from the 3 lay on ANY OTHER HOME WIN.
Youll also see I have indicated where the My Favourites button is (I
labelled it My Markets as I am used to that expression. If you click that
little star, then this game, specifically, this market on this game, gets
added to your favourites file for easy retrieval later. In this next image
you can see where/how those favourite (my markets) games are retrieved:

99

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Going back to an earlier image again (repeated below for ease) you can
also see the CASH OUT button prominently displayed at the top of the
image. This is also well worth keeping an eye on if you want really
easy trading out later.

As time goes on and your trades/bets seem more and more likely to win
you can click on cash out to get the Betfair software to instantly green
everything up and give you an instant profit on all outcomes, But,
beware, it will put an equal profit everywhere including on an unlikely
outcome, for example, on the ANY OTHER outcomes even though you
could, probably would, prefer to just get these down to 0.

As you will see in this developing game example, I left the full liability
on ANY OTHER HOME WIN through the entire game and, had I used
cash out, this would not have been the case. I dont advise leaving that
ANY OTHER liability. I certainly dont advise that early on because a
guaranteed, no further risk, profit is always best for a calm life.

Moving on some, the first of my 0-0 lays has been matched at 13 minutes
in at odds of 8. You can also see I dropped the odds on the next bit of my
request from 7 to 6.4. I often do this if I think the odds are falling quite
quickly and I have fears about a 0-0 at half-time result.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

100

The game progresses and Brighton score just before my next 0-0 lay goes
in - damn, should have left the next lay at 7!

101

If I want more action (a bigger pot) on this game, to achieve that now I
can either lay some more on ANY OTHER HOME WIN or I can lay 1-0.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

In fact, if I wished, I could even lay any score between the two. I could
lay both 1-0 and ANY OTHER HOME WIN. But, in this instance, I will
really think about 1-0 before acting as looking at Brighton v Leeds and
their most recent encounters they tend to often be 1-0 games.

I should stress right here that you would only know this by, at least,
checking head to head results between them. The odds in game will not
tell you that. So I certainly need to wait some on a decision to lay 1-0,
there is no rush and the odds will fall.

But I will take some more action on ANY OTHER HOME WIN as I have
nice low odds to do so now (9.4 in fact).

There were no further first half goals and I captured the next image just as
we headed towards the end of the first 15 minutes of the second half. I
wanted to show you that I could easily back ANY OTHER HOME WIN
now to secure a profit absolutely everywhere. 2.01 would take ANY
OTHER HOME WIN to ZERO, 2.15 backed on it would leave me with
4 profit on ANY OTHER HOMW WIN and 3.65 on all the rest.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

102

But you can see that had I simply hit the CASH OUT button, whilst this
is nice and easy, I would have only kept 1.96 profit in the game. This is
because the software isnt clever enough to work out that some scores
cannot now happen and so it calculates a stake that makes everything
green and profitable.

But I felt very confident that I was not going to be threatened by 4 goals
in this game and so left the liability entirely on ANY OTHER HOME
WIN. Remember just 2 takes that down to near zero (leaves -30 pence)

Please, let me stress once more, I really do not advise that. Taking a 3
plus profit in this particular game knowing that any outcome now would
equal a profit is far better for your health.

The game ended 2-0 to Brighton and I took a profit of 5.70.


A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

103

I did monitor the game using the football scanner tool I mentioned earlier
and never felt that there was going to be a goal rush at any time. Our
consultation with soccerway.com very much supported that anyway.

Alternate (Additional) Betting Consideration

In a game with a clear favourite that stacks up on the required filters, if


the underdog scores first in the first half after you have made (and had
taken) your 0-0 lay, you may give greater consideration to laying the
current score-line. You should consider that a goal response from the
favourite once behind is generally more likely than a goal response from
an outsider once behind.

Again, there is no guarantee that this is correct and you might quite
appropriately feel that with 0-0 out of the way and some potential profit
secured there, that is enough. But an equaliser has to be a strong
possibility.

This action can only reduce your ANY OTHER liability further and it
will also top up the potential profit on any other score between the current
score and the ANY OTHER score that you have layed. Remember also,
and best of all, that the ANY OTHER (HOME/AWAY) WIN you layed,
has now become less likely as a result with a goal to the other team.

In addition, were there to be a rapid response from the favourite and more
goals quickly followed to them as a reaction to going behind, your ANY
OTHER liability suddenly starts to look like a possible problem but you
already started to reduce it.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

104

This additional lay on 0-1/1-0 gives us a bigger fund with which to deal
with ANY OTHER if we start to get nervous and feel the need later to
back out of that.

Statistically, the match will still finish without either team scoring 4 or
more and, frankly, more goals from the underdog is almost certainly great
news for us anyway and a far more confident environment to continue to
lay in. Mostly, you will just have increased profits.
Obviously, dont do this unless it happens in the first half or, maybe,
really early in the second half such as within 10 minutes and dont do it at
all unless you feel confident about being able to reverse this action later if
there simply are no more goals.

Remember, if another goal is not scored we still have the option to exit
the game by reversing this latest bet when (if) the odds reduce to the getout point in exactly the same way that we would deal with 0-0 at or
approaching half time. In other words, if you layed 0-1 at 8 and the odds
sink to 5, you can always back it using some of the available potential
profit to reduce that 0-1 liability or kill it off.
Geoffs Results.
Id like to just show you a snap-shot image from Geoffs results
spreadsheet, just to give you a feel for how consistent his average profit
per game was. Also, it is good for you to see that even a seasoned veteran
did get losing games. It must be said that Geoff was far more disciplined
in his approach to every game than I generally am.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

105

You can see that not all of those losing games were games involving 4
goals or more. This is because sometimes you will make another lay inplay after a goal only to find that there are then no further goals. There is
a tendency then, if you are not fully aware of this, to over-react.

There are two ways to over-react. You can over-react by laying too
heavily on the new, current, score-line and then doing nothing and just
assuming that another goal will come eventually.
106

Or you can over-react by making that lay and then reversing it all too
quickly because you start to panic. Remember that by reverse it, I always
mean back it after laying it.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

You need to be comforted by the knowledge that this system was


developed over some significant time and, for more than 16 months
before I even opened the ASP site for the very first time, Geoff had been
diligently keeping his results on a comprehensive spreadsheet. And he
continued with that right up until he retired from the ASP project for
good in June 2012, leaving us a legacy of well over two years of almost
daily results.
The snap shot shows that he was up to 471 days of results on 31st May
2011 when I first wrote this section, thats no less than 2603 matches at
that point. It can also be seen that 4.21 was the average return per game
and that the daily average return was 23.29 (again apologies if it isnt
too clear, on this detail packed image).

These may not seem like earth-shattering figures but only 2% of all
Betfair.com users make any money at all and these figures were simply
based on Geoffs comfort zone and the staking levels he felt comfortable
with. The big point here is this, a little grows over time to a lot if you
have a steady and consistent plan and this profit has been grown from
zero and, at the time the image was captured, was running at an
annualised rate of 8,499.

From a personal perspective, I see no reason why, given time to learn the
system thoroughly, you could not increase the stakes to a level where 40
or 50 per day was achievable taking this to full time income levels for
many. In fact those returns are achievable on the 10/10.50 staking
levels I talk about in this book IF you are on enough games and your
bank is big enough to run multiple games at the same time.
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

107

The Betfair.com in-play market can, literally have 40 or 50 games


available on some days in the full season. And remember, if you dont
have them downloaded already, access to Geoffs results spreadsheet can
be found at the ASP web site.
The Betfair My Favourites Tool
As mentioned early on, I said I would come back and cover how to set up
and use this useful facility in more detail.

It is so easy for me to assume that everyone knows their way around and
that I do not need to cover these small additional points but that would be
unfair to those of you that are not familiar with Betfair.com and those that
are but havent ever used this useful facility before.
ASP
Once you have separated the games that interest you into your own My
Favourites menu and also separated those games into the My Games
tab on Flashscore.com, then you have a simple and quick way of going
straight to your games without having to constantly scroll through the
entire In-play menu or the plethora of games covered on
Flashscore.com.
To set My favourites up is a breeze:
108

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Find the first of the games that interests you (this image shows the main
betting menu screen for that game) and you will see that there is a star
(follow the arrow) top right of screen. Clicking this star would take the
whole game betting menu into MY FAVOURITES.

And here it is (above) after clicking the star. But we only really want the
correct score market after checking our under 2.5, under 3.5 and match
odds market odds. So lets go to the CORRECT SCORE market and
specifically add that into favourites.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

109

And now we can go to MY FAVOURITES to make sure it is there.

110

Now, perhaps, obviously, you need to be logged into your Betfair.com


account to be able to access your stored favourites.

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

And how about setting up your Betfair.com account so that your live
betting markets show your profit and loss situation in real time AFTER
commission?
First make sure you are logged in. Then look for the link to DISPLAY
OPTIONS. It is always top right of the screen.

Click on that link and you will get this:

111

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

As you can see, I have highlighted the profit and loss section to display
net of commission. I have also got display what if figure ticked. This
then enables me to put a bet request in and instantly see what it does to
my betting market screen as you can see below

Having asked for a lay bet (odds 8.4 for 7) on ANY OTHER HOME
WIN, the betting screen instantly shows me where I will be after/if that
bet is matched even before I click the Place Bets button seen in the
image below. That is what the what if function does when active.

112

A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan


(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

Thats All Folks.


I would recommend going to profitmagnets.com to avail yourself of the
Betting Exchange guide and the other free books on gambling generally
on offer there and, of course, the video on how to stake under 2 at
Betfair.com . If you join profitmagnets.com (free to do so) there is even a
complimentary book on poker.

Please let us know about your Assured Soccer Profits System experience
by keeping in touch with me on john@assuredsoccerprofits.com or
support@profitmagnets.com
Heres to consistent and steady profits! Enjoy!

John
Please note; official copies of this book are only officially sold through
assuredsoccerprofits.com or profitmagnets.com . If you got this book from any other source
you are reading a pirate copy and, effectively, helping to steal from the creators. Just ask
yourself how you would feel if others were doing that to you. In addition, no support could
ever be given to someone with an illegitimate copy.

ASP
A S P System Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd John Duncan
(With kind acknowledgements to Geoff Parle for his critical contributions)

113