Shattered records show climate change is an emergency today, sci...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/17/shattered-...

Shattered records show climate change is

an emergency today, scientists warn
Unprecedented temperature levels mean more heatwaves, flooding, wildfires and
hurricanes as experts say global warming is here and affecting us now
Damian Carrington
Friday 17 June 2016 16.23BST

May was the 13th month in a row to break temperature records according to gures
published this week that are the latest in 2016s string of incredible climate records
which scientists have described as a bombshell and an emergency.
The series of smashed global records, particularly the extraordinary heat in February and
March, has provoked a stunned reaction from climate scientists, who are warning that
climate change has reached unprecedented levels and is no longer only a threat for the
future.
Alongside the soaring temperatures, other records have tumbled around the world, from
vanishing Arctic sea ice to a searing drought in India and the vast bleaching of the Great
Barrier Reef. The UK has experienced record ooding that has devastated communities
across the country and scientists predict that the ash oods seen by parts of the
country in recent days will increase in future.
The impacts of human-caused climate change are no longer subtle they are playing
out, in real time, before us, says Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US.
They serve as a constant reminder now of how critical it is that we engage in the actions
necessary to avert ever-more dangerous and potentially irreversible warming of the
planet.
It was just last December when the worlds nations sealed a deal in Paris to defeat global
warming but Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research in Germany, says: These [records] are very worrying signs and I think it shows
we are on a crash course with the Paris targets unless we change course very, very fast. I
hope people realise that global warming is not something down the road, but it is here
now and it aecting us now.
What is happening right now is we are catapulting ourselves out of the Holocene, which
is the geological epoch that human civilisation has been able to develop in, because of
the relatively stable climate, says Rahmstorf. It allowed us to invent agriculture, rather
than living as nomads. It allowed a big population growth, it allowed the foundation of
cities, all of which required a stable climate.
But the spikes in global surface temperatures in recent months have been anything but
stable. They did not just break the records, they obliterated them. The numbers are
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completely unprecedented, says Adam Scaife, at the Met Oce in the UK. They really
stick out like a sore thumb.
The scorching temperatures mean 2016 is all but certain to be the hottest year ever
recorded, beating the previous hottest year in 2015, which itself beat 2014. This run of
three record years is also unprecedented and, without climate change, would be a one in
a million chance. Scaife says: Including this year so far, 16 of the 17 warmest years on
record have been since 2000 its a shocking statistic.
Thermometer records go back to 1880, but ice cores, tree rings and corals show global
warming driven by humanitys burning of fossil fuels and forests has left the planet at its
hottest for at least 5,000 years. If we are not above this [temperature] already, we will
be in 10 or 20 years time and then you have to go back 120,000 years to nd higher
temperatures than present, says Rahmstorf.
Another shattered record is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is on
course to rise by a record amount this year, leaving the symbolic landmark of 400 parts
per million to history. We know from Antarctic ice cores that go back almost a million
years that CO2 was never even remotely as high as this, says Rahmstorf, and the rate at
which humanity is emitting CO2 is the fastest for 66m years.
Fast-rising CO2 levels are almost entirely the reason for the record-busting year. But the
natural climate phenomenon called El Nio has played a part. Cyclical changes in ocean
temperatures over decades lead to El Nios during which stored heat is released from
the oceans, impacting temperatures and weather around the globe.
Scientists agree about a fth of the temperature rise seen in recent months is due to El
Nio. However Scaife says: I suspect some of the months would have still been records,
even without the El Nio. He points out that 1998 saw an ever bigger El Nio, resulting
in a record hot year, but that this has now been far surpassed: It is not even in the
running anymore, falling way down the list.
El Nio is now waning into to its opposite phase, called La Nia. But that does not allay
the scientists climate concerns: The La Nia will not be as cool as the El Nio was
warm. We are very, very sure of that, says Scaife. It probably means that 2017 will not
be a record year, but compared to other La Nia years, it is likely to be much warmer
than normal.
Furthermore, there may be more to the record-breaking series than meets the eye.
There is something more going on than the usual global warming trend and El Nio,
because in the past El Nio has led to single years breaking records, but it has not caused
several years in a row to break records, says Rahmstorf.
There is some unexplained part to this and it is concerning, because we dont
understand it and it is hotter than expected, he says. I hope the data coming in the
next six months or so will bring us some important clues.
The heat so far has already had major impacts, including a record temperature of 51C in
India amid a serious drought and a record warm autumn in Australia, as well as many in
the US. It is in my view highly unlikely that we would be seeing record drought, like
were seeing in California, record ooding in Texas, unprecedented wildres in western

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North America, and the strongest recorded hurricanes in both the northern and southern
hemisphere were it not for the impact of human-caused global warming, says Mann.
Killer heatwaves are increasing too, which is the clearest impact of global warming, says
Rahmstorf: Our analysis of monthly heat records around the globe shows they now
occur ve times as often. It is those monthly heat records that are representative of
heatwaves that last for weeks on end and they are ones that take the highest death toll.
The UK has been aected too, with December breaking temperature and rainfall records.
Climate change means more intense rainfall and therefore an increased risk of
ooding, says Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics Grantham
Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
The government, which got caught out by two record wet winters in the last three, has
suddenly woken up to the fact, which is why they have set up the National Flood
Resilience Review. It is now something we are all going to have to come to terms with in
the UK.
Ward says seeing the records broken may mean more people make the connection
between action on to cut emissions, such as support for green energy, and the impacts of
global warming. He says the global climate deal agreed in December shows every
government already knows this is a problem that needs urgent action, but that the high
temperatures already occurring will increase the emphasis on adapting to extreme
weather events in addition to cutting carbon emissions.
The impacts were beginning to see are just the start and we know we are going to be
facing a worsening situation for at least the next couple of decades even if we do cut
emissions, Ward says.
Whats worrying [about the record-breaking 2016] is that we are in unprecedented
territory and we dont really know what the consequences will be, he says. There are
likely to be plenty of surprises, some of which will be nasty.

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