Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll

June 19-June 22, 2016
494 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.4%
Q1. Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
Gender
Vote Choice

Right track
Wrong direction
Don't know/No opinion

Total
7%
89%
4%

M
7%
89%
4%

F
8%
88%
4%

Faso
5%
92%
3%

Heaney
13%
85%
2%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
6%
8%
8%
91%
88%
88%
3%
4%
5%

Under
55
5%
92%
3%

Age
55 and
older
9%
87%
4%

Religion
Cath
6%
90%
4%

Prot
8%
88%
4%

Political View
Other
12%
85%
2%

Mod
12%
78%
10%

Conserv
4%
95%
1%

I'm going to read a series of names of people and institutions in public life and I'd like you to tell me whether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each person or institution I name. [Q2-Q7 ROTATED]
Q2. John Faso
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Age
Religion
Political View
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/ Under 55 and
Total
M
F
Faso
Heaney
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
55
older
Cath
Prot
Other
Mod Conserv
Favorable
55% 57% 52%
83%
20%
50%
54%
60%
47%
59%
51%
64%
44%
53%
57%
Unfavorable
25% 25% 24%
8%
62%
28%
19%
25%
29%
23%
26%
18%
39%
29%
22%
Don't know/No opinion
20% 17% 24%
10%
18%
22%
27%
15%
24%
19%
23%
18%
18%
18%
21%
Q3. Andrew Heaney
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
29%
47%
25%

M
25%
49%
26%

F
33%
43%
23%

Vote Choice
Faso
9%
75%
17%

Heaney
79%
4%
17%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
34%
29%
24%
41%
44%
53%
25%
27%
23%

Under
55
34%
41%
25%

Age
55 and
older
26%
49%
25%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
10%
16%
11%
89%
83%
87%
1%
1%
2%

Under
55
8%
90%
2%

Age
55 and
older
13%
85%
2%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
8%
10%
9%
91%
88%
88%
1%
1%
3%

Under
55
6%
92%
2%

Age
55 and
older
11%
88%
1%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
67%
60%
62%
30%
35%
30%
3%
5%
8%

Under
55
59%
35%
7%

Age
55 and
older
66%
30%
5%

Religion
Cath
30%
44%
26%

Prot
25%
50%
25%

Political View
Other
39%
45%
17%

Mod
31%
46%
23%

Conserv
29%
46%
25%

Q4. Barack Obama
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
12%
87%
2%

M
9%
89%
2%

F
15%
83%
2%

Vote Choice
Faso
8%
91%
1%

Heaney
16%
83%
1%

Religion
Cath
11%
87%
2%

Prot
10%
88%
2%

Political View
Other
21%
78%
1%

Mod
25%
71%
3%

Conserv
3%
96%
1%

Q5. Hillary Clinton
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
9%
89%
2%

M
8%
91%
1%

F
11%
87%
2%

Vote Choice
Faso
8%
91%
0%

Heaney
10%
90%
1%

Religion
Cath
7%
91%
1%

Prot
8%
89%
2%

Political View
Other
19%
80%
1%

Mod
16%
79%
5%

Conserv
4%
96%
0%

Q6. Donald Trump
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
63%
31%
5%

M
67%
29%
4%

F
59%
34%
7%

Vote Choice
Faso
64%
33%
3%

Heaney
69%
28%
3%

CD19R Crosstabs

Religion
Cath
68%
28%
3%

Prot
61%
32%
7%

Political View
Other
49%
45%
5%

Mod
45%
47%
7%

Conserv
74%
22%
5%
1 of 3

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll
June 19-June 22, 2016
494 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.4%
Q7. Chris Gibson
Gender

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don't know/No opinion

Total
83%
8%
9%

M
86%
7%
7%

F
81%
8%
12%

Vote Choice
Faso
88%
7%
4%

Heaney
81%
7%
12%

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
76%
90%
85%
10%
3%
9%
14%
7%
6%

Under
55
79%
10%
12%

Age
55 and
older
85%
7%
8%

Religion
Cath
81%
8%
11%

Q8. If the Republican primary election for Member of Congress from the 19th Congressional District was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Region
Age
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/ Under 55 and
Total
M
F
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
55
older
Cath
John Faso
58% 62% 54%
51%
57%
65%
53%
60%
52%
Andrew Heaney
28% 25% 31%
34%
26%
23%
32%
26%
31%
Don't know/No opinion
14% 13% 16%
14%
17%
12%
15%
14%
16%
Q9. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]?
Gender
Vote Choice

Absolutely certain; there’s no chance I will
change my mind
Fairly certain; it’s unlikely I will change my
mind
Not very certain; I very well may change my
mind
Not certain at all; there’s a good chance I
will change my mind
Don't know/No opinion

Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie

Under
55

Total

M

F

Faso

Heaney

54%

54%

54%

59%

44%

49%

48%

61%

50%

34%

35%

33%

31%

41%

38%

37%

29%

8%

8%

8%

8%

9%

11%

7%

3%

3%

4%

2%

5%

1%

1%

0%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Age
55 and
older

Prot
85%
7%
8%

Political View
Other
86%
11%
3%

Religion
Prot
65%
21%
14%

Mod
85%
7%
7%

Conserv
83%
8%
9%

Political View
Other
53%
39%
8%

Religion

Mod
53%
31%
16%

Conserv
61%
26%
13%

Political View

Cath

Prot

Other

Mod

Conserv

56%

55%

56%

46%

54%

54%

37%

33%

35%

33%

36%

37%

33%

6%

11%

7%

6%

7%

13%

2%

10%

7%

3%

1%

5%

4%

2%

4%

5%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

2%

0%

Q10. Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think has been waging the more NEGATIVE campaign? [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Total
M
F
Faso
Heaney
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
John Faso
21% 21% 21%
9%
50%
26%
17%
19%
Andrew Heaney
43% 43% 43%
65%
10%
37%
41%
49%
Vol: Both
12% 13% 12%
7%
19%
13%
8%
14%
Vol: Neither
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
Don't know/No opinion
22% 21% 23%
17%
19%
21%
32%
16%

Under
55
27%
39%
8%
1%
24%

Age
55 and
older
18%
44%
14%
3%
20%

Q11. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which of the two candidates do you think is most likely to win the primary on June 28th? [CHOICES ROTATED]
Gender
Vote Choice
Region
Dutchess/ Broome/Delaware/ Columbia/Greene/Montgomery/
Total
M
F
Faso
Heaney
Ulster
Otsego/Sullivan
Rensselaer/Schoharie
John Faso
59% 62% 56%
81%
26%
49%
56%
70%
Andrew Heaney
20% 18% 23%
7%
53%
28%
15%
16%
Don't know/No opinion
20% 19% 22%
12%
21%
22%
28%
14%

Under
55
53%
25%
22%

Age
55 and
older
62%
18%
19%

CD19R Crosstabs

Religion
Cath
21%
43%
12%
3%
21%

Prot
18%
45%
14%
2%
21%

Political View
Other
30%
38%
11%
1%
21%

Religion
Cath
59%
23%
18%

Prot
62%
17%
21%

Mod
21%
41%
14%
3%
21%

Conserv
20%
46%
12%
2%
20%

Political View
Other
51%
22%
27%

Mod
56%
19%
25%

Conserv
62%
21%
17%

2 of 3

Time Warner Cable/Siena College Poll
June 19-June 22, 2016
494 Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Congressional District 19
MOE +/- 4.4%

Nature of the Sample
NY CD19 Registered Republicans (Likely Voters)
Political View
Moderate
Conservative
Region
Ulster/Dutchess
Sullivan/Broome/Delaware/Otsego
Montgomery/Schoharie/Greene/
Columbia/Rensselaer
Religion
Catholic
Protestant
Other
Age
Under 55
55 and older
Gender
Male
Female

30%
63%
34%
26%
40%
41%
43%
14%
20%
79%
50%
50%

CD19R Crosstabs

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