Question 3-7

0.3

Day

0.2

Loafs

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

200
214
211
228
235
232
248
250
253
267
281
275
280
288
310

Trend estimate T4 = (228 - 200) / 3 = 9.33

Day Deliveries Series estimate S4 = (200 + + 228) / 4 = 213.25
S

T
TAF
213.25 9.333333
226.3083 10.07833 222.5833
235.0707 9.815133 236.3867
245.8201 10.00199 244.8858
254.0754 9.652663 255.822
260.5097 9.008977 263.7281
268.7631 8.857858 269.5186
278.6346 9.060604 277.6209
283.8867 8.298889 287.6952
288.5299 7.567756 292.1856
293.6684 7.081897 296.0976
303.5252 7.636882 300.7502
311.1621

Part C

Q 3.7
Day (t)

Loafs (y)

t.y

t^2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
120

200
214
211
228
235
232
248
250
253
267
281
275
280
288
310
3772

200
428
633
912
1175
1392
1736
2000
2277
2670
3091
3300
3640
4032
4650
32136

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
1240

Linear
Trend
Forecast

|et|

TAF

202.47
209.47
216.47
223.47
230.47
237.47
244.47
251.47
258.47
265.47
272.47
279.47
286.47
293.47
300.47
Total
MAD

2.47
4.53
5.47
4.53
4.53
5.47
3.53
1.47
5.47
1.53
8.53
4.47
6.47
5.47
9.53
73.47
4.898

222.58
236.39
244.89
255.82
263.73
269.52
277.62
287.70
292.19
296.10
300.75
Total
MAD

more accurate
slope
intercept

b
a

7
195.4667

0 + + 228) / 4 = 213.25

|et|
12.42
4.39
3.11
5.82
10.73
2.52
3.38
12.70
12.19
8.10
9.25
84.61
7.692