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Prepared by
For
September 2004
CNFA
1111 19th St. NW, Suite 900
Washington, DC 20036
Tel. +1.202.296.3920
Fax. +1.202.296.3948
http://www.cnfa.org
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Biscuit Factory Business Plan
Summary Highlights
• There are a large number of small bakeries providing a variety of fresh baked goods
including biscuits that are produced and sold over the counter in many outlets in every
Afghan city and village.
• Imported packaged biscuits, mostly from Iran, Pakistan and India, are found in every
corner shop, grocery stores, vendors with carts and supermarkets.
• Bakery owners indicated that biscuits were a rapidly growing market and biscuit
consumption was increasing rapidly (Quentin Johnson 2003.) School aid programs now
use biscuits imported from India.
• An automatic biscuit factory located in Kabul, to produce wrapped soft or hard biscuit,
would be a “First to Market.”
• The proposed capacity of the Biscuit Factory is 250 kg/hr. The estimated total cost of the
equipment is approximately $250,000
• The biscuit produced will be fortified. The added cost of fortification per packaged
biscuit is $0.03 which is negligible.
• The biscuit factory will import its own enriched soft flour directly from Pakistan as well
as food grade packaging but other ingredients will be purchased from the local market.
• Biscuits have a long shelf life and can be transported safely to remote locations.
• Manuals for operation, quality control, maintenance and sanitation should be written and
made available at the start-up of the enterprises.
• An opportunity exists to help Afghanistan who has a population that has chronic
malnutrition in some regions by introducing biscuits made with “super flour.” The super
flour mix may be “soft” enough to mix with local flour and produce good biscuits with
high protein.
• A market for the biscuits would be the FAO/World Food Program which currently
distributes 30,000 MT of imported biscuits to schools as a school funding program.
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• Biscuits produced are expected to be of a quality, freshness, taste and nutrition than the
imported biscuits from Pakistan and other countries.
• Such a Biscuit Factory will serve as a model of modern agribusiness technology; the
success of the factory and its product will serve as a model for further expansion of
industrialized bakeries or biscuit factories in Afghanistan,
• Focus groups conducted in Kabul showed women’s propensity to buy fortified biscuits
for their family is at a high level of interest (94%) and they may be willing to pay a
premium price (81%) for good quality fortified biscuit packages.
• Marketing will be very much a part of the ongoing sales effort at the Factory. Biscuit
packaging will be designed to be distinctive and clearly show that the flour is fortified.
Vehicles (with strong signage) will make deliveries move the product within the region.
• Methods of reaching and educating women about fortified flour and biscuits will be
researched and tested. Radio advertisements will feature the company and special
qualities or benefits of the new Biscuits.
• Income and cash flow projections on the Biscuit Factory show a profitable first year and
payback of initial investment within two years.
Background
Biscuits are an important luxury food for the Afghan people, especially the children. All
packaged biscuits currently sold in Afghanistan are imported from several countries.
There is a growing market for these biscuits and providing a substitute for the imported
biscuits is a worthy investment project. We expect that the biscuits can be produced in
Kabul, at a competitive price, with a factory that is up to date and operating efficiently.
There are many small-scale biscuit bakeries throughout Afghanistan. These bakeries
produce, among other products, two types of biscuits ---one is a short bread type and the
other is a crisp type biscuits. The ingredients to produce these biscuits are: imported 75%
extraction soft flour (non-enriched) from Pakistan, Kazakhstan or Tajikistan, sugar and
vegetable oil or ghee. The bakeries produce the biscuit by hand and bake them on steel
trays in hearth oven (not tandor ovens). The biscuits are produced with inadequate Good
Manufacturing Practices (GMP), food safety, hygiene and without proper packaging.
There are also packaged biscuits. All are imported from a number of countries such as
Pakistan, Turkey, India, Iran and England. These biscuits are sold in every corner shop,
grocery store, vendors on carts around school and supermarket. The FAO/ World Food
Program is currently buying and distributing 30,000 MT of imported biscuits to schools
in Afghanistan. It is one of their mechanisms for school funding and WFP would gladly
purchase biscuits produced locally for this program.
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the biscuit volume in the small bakeries. Neither is there accurate statistics on the volume
of imported biscuits into the country. In order to collect this information, one would have
to travel to Dubai where the major importers are. A middleman that we sought to
interview in Afghanistan (Habbib Kolazar) could not be found.
The Business
Soft flour is the main ingredient in biscuit manufacturing. There is no locally produced
soft flour in Afghanistan. To the best of our knowledge, there is no soft wheat grown in
Afghanistan and there is no roller mill capable of milling soft wheat to 75% extraction
flour at 0.48% ash content. Therefore, it is recommended that the proposed factory import
their own soft flour directly from Pakistan. In the tender specification, the factory should
specify enrichment of the flour. Direct importation will achieve cost cutting of the main
ingredient. Packaging materials will also need to be imported directly from Iran or
Pakistan. All other ingredients can be purchased in the local marketplace.
The Factory will have 26 employees initially operating an 8 hour shift. These include 2
office manager/staff; 1 salesperson: 6 machine operators; 2 maintenance; 2 guards; and
13 laborers. During succeeding years or as demand expands, the Factory will increase
operations to two shifts then on to 3 shifts or 24 hour operation.
2. Facility Requirements:
The whole manufacturing area is about 270 square meters (45 meter long by 6 meter
wide). Additional space is needed for warehouse of ingredients and finished products.
The full list of machinery needed and cost of each machinery FOB is attached in the
appendix. A full view of the whole factory is also attached. (See Appendix 1 for
diagram and specifications.) The cost of the equipment is $113,000 FOB, and the total
equipment investment is estimated to be $226,000 with installation but excluding land
and building. Another manufacturer from China offers an automatic line that is more
versatile and can produce a larger variety of biscuits. It costs $170,000 FOB.
Such a Biscuit Factory will serve as a model of modern agribusiness technology; the
profitability of the factory and its products will serve as a model for further development
of similar factories in Afghanistan.
The investment required for startup of the Biscuit Factory is $500,000. A majority of the
funds will be used for building the new factory, purchasing biscuit making equipment,
and for startup expenses until the factory gets fully into operation:
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- Land is $20,000 and Building $154,000
- Factory Equipment (includes installation) $226,000
-Generator: need 150 KVA generator $25,000
- Operating Capital 65,000
-Vehicle for pick up and delivery (1): $10,000
Additional vehicles purchased in Yr 2 and 3
TOTAL $500,000
The factory equipment can be purchased from one of several turn-key factory suppliers in
China, Italy and the United States. The list of manufacturers that would provide needed
equipment is listed here below and their equipment can be viewed on their websites:
Location:
The recommended location of Kabul is closest to sources of raw materials needed. Kabul
is the largest market for biscuits. Kabul has a population of 3.3 million and is considered
the largest market center in the country. Distribution of biscuits to markets outside
Kabul can be easily done through a distributor or by factory-arranged transportation.
The Factory will have a capacity is 250 kg/hour. It is recommended to start production
on 8 hour shifts then expand as demand increases and the brand is better established.
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Sources and costs of inputs:
Formulation of biscuit varies for different products. The formulation of the various
products will be worked out with the vendor. A typical formula for biscuit is as follows:
This formula is used to calculate the cost of goods sold for the proposed factory. Other
ingredients may be needed for sandwiched biscuits or flavored ones. Production per hour
is 231kg of biscuit. After allowing for 5% rejects, the plant is expected to produce 1155
packaged biscuits/per hour each weighing 200g each. Until brand recognition in the
market is established, it is projected to run the plant for 8 hours daily. Therefore total
production is about 9,230 packaged biscuits per day.
An opportunity exists to use local flour at 75% extraction. The International Assistance
Mission (IAM) has a project producing complementary flour called super flour. This
flour is a simple mixture of roasted rice, chickpeas and maize that has been ground and
mixed together in equal proportion. The capacity is about 12 MT per month. Rice and
maize are high starch grains. Chickpeas contribute protein that will not impact gluten
content if mixed with flour. It is suggested to run several trials to mix the super flour with
75% extraction local hard flour at 5% and 10% level. The mix may be soft enough to
increase the spread factor and produce good biscuits with high protein. The testing should
include the machine ability of the dough, the biscuit quality, as well as the taste of the
biscuits. These trials can be easily done in the laboratory of American Institute of Baking
at Manhattan, Kansas. If such tests are successful then samples of the mixed flour should
be sent to the vendor of the machinery for testing the machine ability issues. Another set
of trials, if economically feasible, is to add 5% or 10% wheat starch to 75% extraction
local flour and test them for biscuit baking quality. A third recommendation is to try to
add small percentage of sodium meta bisulfite to weaken the gluten of 75% extraction
local flour. The success of any of these trials will have a significant impact on the
business and use locally produced flour. Not to mention the improved nutritional quality
of the flour would be very beneficial to the health of the consumer.
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Proposed owner:
In all interviews we conducted, we find that there are sources of investment capital in
Afghanistan and in Kabul. There are many investors who are seeing opportunities and
starting various enterprises. There are investors looking for new opportunities according
to interviews with local NGOs. However, due to lack of time, finding a prospective
investor was left to the future managers of CNFA in Kabul. It is hoped that the owner
has sufficient knowledge on baking, marketing experience in branded foods, and
understanding the whole market chain.
Training:
Proper training and experience will result in improving quality, modification of recipe,
adding different flavors and reducing breakage or rejects which will add to the bottom
line of the enterprise.
There is a large market for biscuits in Afghanistan for household consumption, and
school aid programs that now use biscuits imported from India. The biscuit bakery
owners indicated that biscuits were a rapidly growing market and biscuit consumption
was increasing rapidly (Quentin Johnson 2003.) Likewise, the supermarket shelves
dedicated a lot of space to the various imported biscuits, indicating that they are a popular
item. All supermarkets, small markets, even street kiosks carry them—again indicating
their popularity. GDP increased 20% in 2003. The primary market will initially be in
Kabul, and then expand.
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Competitive products, sources, and prices:
Competitive products made in Pakistan, and other developing countries as well as UK,
are everywhere in Kabul and throughout Afghanistan. The retail price of various
packages is shown on the following table. It will be important to produce in such a way
that the Afghan-made biscuits are priced competitively.
Turkish 0.80
Pakistan (Biscuit) 0.56
Pakistan (Cracker) 0.72
Pakistan (Sandwich) 0.55
England 0.90
England 1.04
England 2.60
Marketing Strategies:
The marketing focus of the factory should be on quality, freshness, good packaging, good
taste and nutrition. Focus Group surveys conducted with 16 women during our stay in
Kabul showed that consumers would buy Afghanistan-made biscuit if the quality and
taste is good. They indicated interest in increased nutritional quality (94%) and
willingness to pay a premium price (81%) for good quality, fortified biscuit packages
(See Appendix 5.)
Marketing will be very much a part of the ongoing sales effort at the Factory. Biscuit
packaging will be designed to be distinctive and clearly show that the biscuits are
fortified or, if the test case is successful, show the benefits of “super flour.” Methods of
reaching and educating women about fortified biscuits will be researched and tested.
Radio advertisements will feature the company and special qualities and benefits of the
new biscuits.
Although there are ample would-be distributors who would want to handle the products
in their own way. A best strategy would be to have truck and drivers that would deliver
on a consistent basis to the larger retailers and distributors. Strong signage on delivery
vehicles will show locally made biscuits and health, nutrition benefits and move the
product within the region.
.
Anticipated domestic and export potential:
In the near term, the market will be strictly domestic with an eye for import substitution
but in the long term, emphasis may switch to adding export markets. Markets are also
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increasing in Pakistan, Iran, and India. The Biscuit Factory’s products can be positioned
as a strong brand and be potentially a significant player in the Afghanistan market. There
currently is no competition other than imports for the Afghan market. If the product can
be priced competitively and be of comparable quality, it will be well received in
Afghanistan and substitute some of the import. It can also take advantage of
humanitarian programs such as the WFP purchases for School Feeding Program.
An opportunity exists to help Afghanistan who has a population that has chronic
malnutrition in some regions by introducing biscuits made with “super flour.” The
biscuits made with fortified flour or made with “super flour” give these products an
added advantage and differentiate the product from other products being sold in
Afghanistan. Brand loyalty can be achieved faster with the added nutrition and due to the
biscuits being made in Afghanistan.
4. Business Plan
Investment and Cash Flow Projections (First Year) for Biscuit Factory
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Investment $500,000
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Investment and Cash Flow Projections, 3 years – Biscuit Factory
A detailed first year cash flow projection and list of assumptions is included in Appendix 6 and
6a. The plant is starting with only one 8 hour shift and can expand as demand for the product
expands. The Cash Flow projections reflect movement to two 8-hour shifts in Year 2 and into a
24 hour operation in Year 3. Additions to the personnel and sales staff are reflected in year 2 and
3 as production increases. Other vehicles for distribution were added during Year 2 and Year 3.
The Kabul Biscuit Factory requires a substantial investment but the potential profits, the
quick payback, the creation of jobs, the opportunity for import substitution and the
benefits to the region make this investment worthwhile. Some financing from local
banks, from RAMP’s credit programs and CNFA grants may be available.
The Factory will employ approximately 26 well trained professional and staff. We
recommend a radio and print marketing campaign that will educate the public about the
benefits of fortified biscuits. During the first year, 26 jobs are created. By Year 3, a total
of 60 jobs will have been created.
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APPENDIX 1 -- Zhuai Hongfu Food Mechanical Manufacturing
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APPENDIX 1a - Zhuai Hongfu Food Mechanical Manufacturing
A HF400 HARD AND SOFT BISCUIT LINE
PRODUCT Specification:
Product type: soda cracker, hard and soft biscuits.
Capacity: approx. 250kg/h
Baking time: soda cracker 4 min
Hard biscuits 4 min
Soft biscuit 5~6 min
Please According to your fact
Dimensions of machine 45560mm×5050×1700
Net Weight: 20 Tons
Gross Weight: 22 Tons
Power: 190Kw
Manpower:20 skilled worker
Electricity supply: 380Volts, 3 phases, 50HZ alternating current supply
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2. Laminator Type:DS400 Price:USD19,000.00
Function: The laminator has functions of sheeting, fat spreading and laminating. For getting
high quality of sheets, it is completed with the HF400 type biscuit-shaping machine for pre-
treating the dough. First rolling the sheet, then feeding it out perpendicularly. In the course
the sheet is equably laminated in many layers. The sheets get multiplayer and high surface
quality and little change. It is necessary for the production of high quality hard biscuit (soda
crackers and fermentation biscuit).
a. Speed of rolling: 1.5-3.8M/min
b. Thick of the sheets: 4-8MM
c. Layers: 3-8
d. Dimensions(L×W×H) : 1950×1150×1500mm
e. Power: 3Kw
f. Weight: 2500kg
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d. Drums: Ф600mm
e. With wire band which strong enough to withstand the oven temperature
f. Stepless speed suitable for different requirement and production capacity
g. Cast iron housing
h. Stepless change speed by frequency transformer
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B. Capacity:25~180 packs/min
C. Total power:4.5Kw
D. Max. Film width: 90~420mm
E. frequency converter to step-less speed regulation.
F. size of bag: L=90~280, W=30~160, H=5~50mm
TOTAL: FOB Jiuzhou port 113,000.00 (This price will be valid within 60 days)
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APPENDIX 2
SHUNDE BEIJIAO TOWN HUAWEI MACHINERY FACTORY OF FOSHAN CITY.
ADD: KUNZHOU INDUSTRIAL ZONE, BEIJIAO TOWN, SHUNDE CITY, GUANGDONG, CHINA
Tel:86-0757-26325608(0-9) Fax:86-0757-26325609
Website: www.huaji-machinery.com Email: huaji@huaji-machinery.com
EQUIPMENT AND PRICE LIST OF “HUAWEI” BISCUIT PRODUCTION LINE
PRODUCT Specification: Product type: hard biscuit and soft biscuit, also including sandwich
biscuit…etc.
Capacity: approx. 250kg/h Baking time: Hard biscuits 4 min Soft biscuits 5 min
Dimension: Please According to your plant size to design
Electricity supply: 380Volts, 3 phases, 50HZ alternating current supply
CODE DESCRIPTION OF QUANTITY PRICE FOB SPEC WEIGHT REMARK
GOODS (USD) (MM) (G.W)
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APPENDIX 2 (continued)
REMARK:
1.Term of payment: FOB Shunde port.
2.The proper scheme can be offered according to your requirement (plant size, capacity etc.)
3.The above offer doesn’t include fixing and debugging charge (5% 8 )
佛山市顺德区北滘镇华威机器厂
SHUNDE BEIJIAO TOWN HUAWEI MACHINERY FACTORY OF FOSHAN
CITY
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APPENDIX 2a Huawei Machinery - CHINA
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APPENDIX 2b Huawei Machinery
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APPENDIX 3 (SCLEDENSI –ITALY)
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APPENDIX 4 (APV BAKER—USA)
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APPENDIX 5
Focus Groups Questionnaire Results - Biscuit Factory
.
About Biscuits:
Do you buy packaged biscuits for your home now? Or make them? Buy(9) Make (0)
If biscuits were made in Afghanistan, would you buy Afghan? Yes (16) No 0
(several commented: “If they are good!”)
Would you perceive these to be fresher? Better quality? Yes (13) No (3) (not always)
Would you pay a little more for the Afghan made biscuits? Yes (15) No (1)
If 90 afs more?
If 40 afs more?
If 20 afs more?
If 10 afs more? (10) (Yes if quality is better) note: there was
some questions about the value of the biscuits which they felt cost only 10 afs... therefore
would they be willing to pay double price? Yes)
Would you pay a little more for the Afghan made biscuits if fortified with Vitamins,
mineral as Iron, zinc etc... yes (13) No. ( 3)
If 90 afs more?
If 40 afs more?
If 20 afs more?
If 10 afs more?
(It was difficult to gage what the price tolerance was on this, as many woman seemed to
indicate a willingness to pay more for the nutrition for their children and that they would
stretch as much as possible if they knew it was fortified. And unconditionally, “the
biscuits should taste good.
(The women exhibited a great deal of interest in having fortified flours and snacks....and
said as they left that they hoped it would happen.)
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APPENDIX 6 (Detailed Cash flow projection-12 months)
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Appendix 6a
Assumptions and Limitations to the Cash Flow Analysis
The purpose of this memo is to explain the assumptions used to develop the business plan models, and
highlight the limitations of the analysis. Information is lacking in Afghanistan therefore information was
gathered using the following sources:
- Interviews managers of flour mills and cake factories, - Interviews with main suppliers,
- Interviews with stakeholders, such as World Food Program, UNICEF, Mercy Corp, Altai, RAMP and
others, Industry data from other countries.
1. Model: Description and Assumptions Inflation or NPV is not represented in this model. The
mill operates one shift 8 hours days per month during first year , two shifts—16 hours per day in Year 2
and on to 3 shifts in Year 3.
Loan: There is availability of loan from Banks at 7-13% interest but little information exists as to where
and loans available from RAMP who will loan $50-200,000 loans at 9-12%. They actively pursue
agribusiness projects that are viable and can show impact A repayment schedule of $$6642 has been used
based on a $200,000 loan at 12% on a 3 year repayment schedule.
Revenues are a function of:
Actual computation of dough 250 kg/hr which produces 231 kg of biscuits. Multiplied by 8 hours X 25
days less 5% rejects equals 48390 kg of biscuit. These are packed into 200g packages which makes
219,450 packages and sold at $ .60 to the wholesalers. First few months were assumed to be at half (50%)
capacity. Assume that retailer will sell it for $.80/pkg. This is similar to the imported price. Each of two
year thereafter, we adjusted for additional shift ,assumed 5% inflation
Expenses are function of: - Cost of goods sold (raw materials): The equipment capacity is 250 kg
per hour. First two months of operation was estimated at half the usual amount. The facility will operate
8 hours a day and add a shift in years 2 and 3. First few months were assumed to be at half (50%) capacity
but supplies are purchased during previous month. Added 5% to expenses in Years 2, and 3.
2. Limitations It was difficult to obtain data from factory management, since these factories are not all
proficient with computing and accounting tools. We made assumptions about operating costs....
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