RDQ ECONOMICS RECESSION SCORECARD 9/20/2010

Real GDP Economic Profits Unemployment Rate Industrial Production

Increase in
Peak‐to‐Trough  Year Following Peak‐to‐Trough  Year Following Months to U/R Peak  Peak‐to‐Trough  Year Following
Trough Level Peak Level Unemploment 
GDP decline  Recession End Profit Decline  Recession End After Recession End IP decline  Recession End
Rate
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (months) (%) (%)
Recession
Jul '53 to May '54 ‐2.6 7.9 ‐21.2 32.3 2.5 6.1 3.6 4 ‐9.6 14.0
Aug '57 to Apr '58 ‐3.7 9.5 ‐22.7 46.9 3.7 7.5 3.8 3 ‐13.2 20.9
Apr '60 to Feb '61 ‐1.6 7.5 ‐15.1 26.2 4.8 7.1 2.3 3 ‐8.3 13.2
Dec '69 to Nov '70 ‐0.6 4.5 ‐19.1 24.6 3.4 6.1 2.7 9 ‐6.9 6.4
Nov '73 to Mar '75 ‐3.2 6.2 ‐12.5 47.5 4.6 9.0 4.4 2 ‐12.9 8.5
Jan '80 to Jul '80 ‐2.2 4.4 ‐18.3 22.2 5.6 7.8 2.2 0 ‐6.6 6.4
Jul '81 to Nov '82 ‐2.9 7.7 ‐10.7 39.6 7.2 10.8 3.6 1 ‐9.3 9.6
Jul '90 to Mar '91 ‐1.4 2.6 ‐5.6 6.2 5.0 7.8 2.8 15 ‐4.0 3.5
Mar '01 to Nov '01 ‐0.3 1.9 ‐10.8 20.6 3.8 6.3 2.5 19 ‐5.8 3.3
AVERAGE OF PRIOR ‐2.1 5.8 ‐15.1 29.6 4.5 7.6 3.1 6 ‐8.5 9.5
Dec '07 to Jun '09 ‐4.1 3.0 ‐28.8 39.2 4.4 10.1 5.7 5 ‐15.1 8.2
S&P 500 Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spread Housing Starts
Months from Change in Spread  Months from
Peak‐to‐Trough Year Following Peak‐to‐Trough Year Following
S&P Bottom to  Trough Level Peak Level One Year After  Peak Spread to 
S&P Decline  Recession End Housing Decline  Recession End
Recession End Recession End Recession End

(%) (months) (%) (bps) (bps) (bps) (months) (%) (%)

Recession
Jul '53 to May '54 ‐11.1 9 30.9 66 103 ‐24 ‐2 n.a. n.a.
Aug '57 to Apr '58 ‐16.9 5 34.9 61 173 ‐70 5 n.a. n.a.
Apr '60 to Feb '61 ‐10.1 5 12.9 85 136 ‐28 8 ‐31.5 4.2
Dec '69 to Nov '70 ‐29.0 6 10.1 144 315 ‐20 ‐1 ‐38.7 32.5
Nov '73 to Mar '75 ‐43.4 4 20.6 171 413 ‐50 3 ‐63.6 43.1
Jan '80 to Jul '80 ‐5.2 4 7.8 152 338 30 ‐6 ‐55.7 ‐18.0
Jul '81 to Nov '82 ‐19.4 5 19.6 256 422 ‐183 2 ‐45.9 30.1
Jul '90 to Mar '91 ‐14.8 6 9.4 138 212 ‐39 3 ‐50.8 40.8
Mar '01 to Nov '01 ‐29.7 ‐15 ‐19.5 152 283 16 ‐11 no decline 9.4
AVERAGE OF PRIOR ‐19.9 3 14.1 136 266 ‐41 0.1 ‐47.7 20.3
Dec '07 to Jun '09 ‐50.8 3 17.0 138 535 ‐70 6 ‐79.0 ‐7.9

John Ryding ryding@rdqeconomics.com
Conrad DeQuadros dequadros@rdqeconomics.com Copyright © 2010