3.

3 – DEMOGRAPHICS

Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey is home to 10,072,447 people [2000 census], making it one of
the most populated cities in the world. The population is spread out in a roughly symmetrical
pattern on both continents, with the highest density on the European side. [Fig 1] About 75
percent of Istanbul residents are of Turkish ethnic origin; the remainder of the population is made
up mostly of immigrants from Eastern Europe. Turkey is a secular state, though 99% of the
population is Islamic. The relatively high immigrant population and somewhat European
character in Istanbul result in a significantly smaller majority of Muslims within the city.

Fig 1

Istanbul is a unique city in many regards. Most of the people living in Istanbul are immigrants
from rural Turkey, from a wide variety of local cultures. The municipality has an almost even
distribution of males and females, though men generally dominate the workforce and society. The
population boasts a high literacy rate, somewhere between 80 and 90 percent. Most of the
employed work in manufacturing industries; most people between the age of 20 and 65 are or
have been married.

Age Distribution
The population of Istanbul is a fairly young one. In 1990, the 15-19 age group was the largest of
the total population. Males make up 50.5 percent of the population and females 49.5 percent.
Men outnumber women in almost all age groups except after age 64, where the trend shifts.
Average life expectancy is 65, but somewhat higher for women. [Fig 2] The next largest age
groups in the population are the 10-14 and 25-33 age groups.

80 - 84

70 - 74

60 - 64

50 - 54 Female
Male
40 - 44
TOTAL
30 - 34

20 - 24

10 - 14

0-4

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000

[Fig 2] Distribution by age and gender

The population distribution pattern can be used, as an indicator of services that are needed today,
and also what will be needed in the next 10 to 20 years. The number of women in childbearing
age indicates great potential for population growth. A natural increase coupled with continued in-
migration could present a serious crisis for the city.

Education
One major need for the growing young population of Istanbul will be its education. Turkey’s
literacy rate in 1990 was approximately 81 percent. A national educational policy, had made
primary education free and compulsory to both boys and girls. In 1998 the age limit for
compulsory education was extended from five to eight years [Howard 2001]. Because of the
differences in rural and urban culture, the literacy rate for big cities such as Istanbul may be
higher than for the rest of the country. Census data reveals that more men are literate than
women.

1800000

1600000

1400000

1200000

1000000

Male
Female
800000

600000

400000

200000

0
Primar y School Junior High School Schools, mat ching High School Schools, mat ching Collage
Junior High School High School

Fig 3

The disparity in the educational level of the gender can be attributed to two factors; military
compulsory training for men and traditional cultural practices, which place more emphasis on the
education of boys than girls. Because of the overall small difference between the number of men
and women, the disparity in education is not a very dramatic one for Istanbul. However,
according to Douglas Howard [2001], the disparity is more obvious in rural areas where tradition
prevents young girls from enjoying the equal educational opportunity granted to both boys and
girls. For example, since 1998, children living in more rural areas have to be bused to schools in
bigger towns. Parents were afraid to send their daughters far distances on a bus with boys
without chaperones.i They were more concerned with preserving their daughters for marriage
than they were with ensuring that they got an education.
Fifteen months of military service is required of all male citizens[Howard 2001]. Men are taught
reading and writing while enlisted in the military. The military might have influenced the
extension of the compulsory education age in 1998. According to Howard the military has
traditionally played an important political role in the Turkish government. Its influence in
changing the education policy might have been the military’s way of ensuring that young men
entering the service are already at a certain educational level, relieving them of the task of having
to teach reading and writing skills.

While the city of Istanbul boasts a high literacy rate, it is important to have a deeper
understanding of the education of the population. It should be noted that the educational level
attained by the majority of the population is basically an elementary level education. On a world
scale, especially in the developed world, this might be considered less than minimum-level. In
most developed countries, completion of high school is considered an acceptable minimum level
education; less than half of the population has attained this level in Turkey.

4000000

3500000

3000000

2500000

MALE
2000000
FEMALE

1500000

1000000

500000

0
Total Literate Nonliterate

[Fig 4]
This fact could have far-reaching implications on the development of the city and the population.
For example, the education level of any population determines employment and income to a large
extent. For Istanbul this means that a great portion of its population will be earning minimum
wage and will be employed in unskilled jobs. The potential revenue from taxes for the city will be
far less than it would have been if a large portion of the population were being paid more. This
could also affect the social services that can be provided for the population and whether these
services will have to be provided for free or whether the population can be expected to pay. The
more dependent the population is on the state, the thinner the distribution of available resources.

The number of college graduates is extremely low. The lack of a higher education level for the
majority of the population is in fact a major liability to the city’s economic growth and
development. Istanbul’s goal for the future [Tuncay & Kücük] would be to obtain world city
status, leaning more towards the commercial and technological service type industry than
manufacturing. With this goal in mind the government will also have to consider the educational
level of its population. A greater effort is needed to increase the number of college graduates to
supply the potential job market that might follow the expected economic shift, if the city is to be
successful in its quest for global status. A commercial, business oriented city, serving an
international market will require a different work force. The challenge is to prepare that work
force adequately for the new job potentials. The plan for the Greater Municipality [3.2.7] has
mentioned that the city will continue to increase scholarships for Master and PhD students, a
generous gesture on the part of the city. But what is greatly needed is a push for higher education
levels further down the education chain. Maybe what is needed is a national push such as the one
that was enforced in the early years of the Republic of Turkey.

Migration
Istanbul can be considered a city of immigrants since more than 60 percent of its residents were
born outside of Istanbul [Sonmez, 1996:125]. The city has grown faster as a result of migration
than it has by natural growth, according to Unsal, Erbas and Cavusoglu ii. Istanbul has
experienced population increase by migration of up to 500,000 people annually. The Industrial
Plan for the city of Istanbul in the Master Plan of 1937 might have been the catalysis for the flood
of rural migrants into the city and something that would have far reaching effects on the growth
and development of the city.( Istanbul also experienced growth from international immigration in
the early industrialization period) Migration not only affected the population growth but also
transformed neighborhoods and reshaped the city form. Neighborhoods that once were mostly
residential and dominated by more upscale residents were transformed physically to
accommodate industries. Industrialization also changed the demographics of some of these
neighborhoods as the wealthier residents moved out and were replaced by poor migrant workers.
This has in some cases led to a deterioration of the neighborhood and the creation of illegal
houses called gecekondus to spring up near industries.

From 1985 to 1990 alone, 995,717 people moved to Istanbul. The 2000 census indicated that,
except for a few, most boroughs recorded an increase in population over the total amount
recorded in 1997. Most of the immigrants migrate from Northern and Central Anatolian regions,
but as indicated in the diagram below the immigrants come from all over Turkey.

(Income and settlement of newcomers according to their place of birth)

Over the years, changes in the rural environment -including reduced the demand for manual
labor, increased mortality rate, a decrease in overall agricultural production due to deteriorating
soil fertility, terrorism and the availability of education to more rural families- have made the city
of Istanbul a more attractive alternative [Foundations of Turkish Social Structure; 1]. Some
boroughs, such as Kucukcekmece and Umraniye recorded over 15% of population growth in the
1990 census. Buyukcekmece and Gaziosmanpasa are also popular destinations for immigrant
settlers; Buyukcekmece recorded a 38% and Gaziosmanpasa a 17% increase. Traditional
settlement areas such as Kadikoy have become less attractive to immigrants because of
overcrowding and high rental rates. There is also movement from borough to borough but most of
the apparent growth in the boroughs can be attributed to rural to urban migration.

It is customary for new immigrants to settle in areas where there is an established community of
friends or relatives creating enclaves of residents in each borough that represents their town or
region of birth. The volume and rate of migration flow has presented one of the biggest
challenges facing Istanbul today, leading to illegal housing and the overloading (and sometimes
pirating) of utilities and other infrastructure. This puts the poorest at a great disadvantage
because they are the ones who suffer most from the lack of services.

In addition to not being able to provide basic services for all the residents, there is also the
challenge of keeping them safe from the risk of earthquakes. This requires not only financing but
also the power and will of the municipal government to enforce land use policies that will better
manage development and to enforce seismic codes on all buildings in the city. Overall, some
serious steps have to be taken to manage the growth of the city. Mitigation has to begin with
migration; it should either be controlled at the borders or plans should be made to accommodate
the arriving immigrants with legal, affordable housing.

Employment
Turkey’s leading employment sector is agriculture followed by service, industry and construction.
According to 1990 census the leading employment sector in Istanbul was the manufacturing
industry. Service industry, community/ social and personnel services and construction are other
sectors employing a great portion of the population. Agricultural activities (limited to special
areas such as the Black Sea region), utilities and mining among others make up the remainder of
the sectors that form the employment pool in Istanbul [Fig. 4] More men are employed than
women in almost all sectors, except for education, health related jobs and clerical jobs as shown
in Fig 5. This is attributed to both culture and the disparity in the education of the genders, as
there are more educated men than there are women. Most women still follow the traditional trend
to work in the home.

On a global scale, there are some jobs that have traditionally been dominated by men and some
by women. Jobs such as pilots and boat operators are jobs with very low representation of
females. As well there are some that are typically dominated by women. However, in Istanbul
some of these jobs, such as hairdressing are dominated by men, postal employees in Istanbul are
mostly men with very few women.

Jobs by gender

100000
Total
90000
Male
1. Pilots, deck, machine officer
80000 Female
2. Sportsman and related jobs
70000 3.Legislative power, high level
exec.
60000 4.Accountant, cashier etc.
5.Postman
50000 6.Telephone, telegrapgh
operator
40000 7.Hairdresser Beautician etc.

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

According to Mustafa Sonmez [1996:144] Istanbul houses 242 of the 500 largest industrial
companies in Turkey. Indicators suggest that manufacturing is still a major factor in the
economic base of the city of Istanbul. It is still the leading employer in the city. Because of the
strong manufacturing base, Istanbul is city is a very important asset to the economy of the
country, contributing about 40 percent of the GNP.

Istanbul’s manufacturing industries produce a wide range of goods including, leather, clothing,
furniture, chemicals, bio-medical and automotive related products and processed food. A
growing service industry has the potential to become the leading employer depending on the
decentralization of the manufacturing industry and the city’s quest to become a global city.
Global status if attained might shift the economy from a manufacturing base to a business related
service industry. However as mentioned earlier serious considerations have to be taken regarding
how ready the population will be for this shift in terms of education. A business related economy
will need more people with college level education and at least a minimum a high school
ducation.

Agriculture/ fishing

Mining

Manufacturing

Utilities/ Construction

Retail/Service related

Transportation/Communicatio
n
Finance
Employment sector

The transportation sector is another viable option in terms of employment for the city.
Transportation is a growing sector with potential contingent on the city’s investment in plans for
expansion. Besides the rails, people are employed by the public and private bus service, as taxi
operators and as ferry operators. Not many women are employed in the transportation sector.
Hopefully as more jobs open up women will be better represented in this sector. Because of the
limited distribution of the transportation network, most of the available jobs are limited to people
in the larger towns and city centers where service exists. Expansion to the outskirts of the city
might offer opportunities to more people in smaller districts and towns.

The Turkish economy has undergone serious decline in the past year. The GNP has decreased,
and the budget deficit in 2001 was 18.4 quadrillion [Foundations of Turkish Social Structure;
4.2.1]. Turkey is now in the process of seeking assistance from the World Bank and the IMF, and
efforts are being made to restructure the economy. One solution being examined is the
privatization of the state economic units. Presently most of the industries are state owned. If these
businesses are in trouble it will affect the employment rate of the country. The overall economic
state of the country will undoubtedly affect the city of Istanbul. This could cause an increase in
unemployment and reduction in government services and expenditure. This will have serious
effects on a city trying to safe guard itself from devastation by earthquake. Mitigation efforts are
very expensive and unaffordable by many. Therefore the government will have to find funds to
subsidize mitigation efforts in order to protect a large percentage of national productivity.

Family Life
Turkish family life is rooted in tradition and exhibits a strong sense of family, and belief in
marriage and the subordination of women. Nuclear and patriarchal extended families are the
more common family types. Structure is determined by location: rural versus urban. Rural
extended families are linked to land owner and agricultural production where the patriarch owns
the land and his sons and their wives work the farm. The landless tend to follow a more nuclear
pattern. Urban families are mostly nuclear, however, at some point there might be other family
members in transition, living with family until he/she is able to establish his or her own family
and rent or possibly buy a house. According to Unsal, Erbas & Cavusoglu owning a residence is
the most important instrument of social security in Istanbul; only 50 percent of low- income
residents own their homes (this includes illegal housing). They also pointed out how difficult it is
even for someone of the middle class with possibly academic employment, to purchase a house
on existing salaries and working within the legal framework of the system.

The average age at marriage in Turkey is 25, younger in more rural areas. Most women have at
least one child, however the number of children born to a large percentage of women is 4, with
some women having as many as 10 children. Failure of family farms has forced couples from an
extended family setting into urban centers to establish their own nuclear families.

Trends and Forecasts

There is no indication that rural-to-urban migration will stop. However, it might slow to a
manageable level if policies are implemented to stem migration at the source, or if other cities can
provide jobs that most of the migrants seek. Istanbul is a major metropolitan city with myriad
functions that is very attractive; many people will always be drawn to the city. The city needs to
anticipate this and make plans to accommodate this growth or to deter it.
The prevailing educational situation sounds very impressive but in fact needs improvement.
There has to be a push for higher education beyond elementary level. More high school students
have to be encouraged to attend college. The government might have to provide funding for this,
but it could be a major factor in the future development of the city.

Also, a shift in the economic base seems to be pending. Service related jobs and businesses might
become the leading employer.

i
Foundations of Turkish Social Structure
ii
Unsal, Fatms, Erbas, Erdem & Cavusoglu, Erbatur; Social Cohesion and Spatial Segregation in
Globalization Era: The Case of Isatanbul; 2001