ATC-13-1

Commentary on the Use of ATC-13 Earthquake

Damage Evaluation Data for Probable Maximum
Loss Studies of California Buildings

by
APPLIED TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL
201 Redwood Shores Parkway, Suite 240
Redwood City, California 94065
E-mail: atc@atcouncil.org
Web site: www.atcouncil.org

Prepared for ATC by

STEPHANIE A. KING
Weidlinger Associates, Inc.
Los Altos, California

PROJECT MANAGER
Christopher Rojahn

PROJECT ENGINEERING PANEL

Patrick Buscovich* Stephen H. Pelham
Jeff Coronado Lawrence D. Reaveley
Anne S. Kiremidjian Richard J. Roth, Jr.

*ATC Board Representative

2002

In 1985 the Applied Technology Council (ATC)
completed and published the ATC-13 report,
Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for Califor-
nia. Funded by the Federal Emergency Manage-
ment Agency (FEMA), the ATC-13 report was
developed to provide expert-opinion earthquake
damage and loss methodology and data for use in
estimating local, regional, and national economic
impacts from earthquakes in California. The
ATC-13 report includes: (1) expert-opinion mo-
tion-damage relationships, presented in the form
of damage probability matrices, for 78 classes of
structures, including buildings (40 classes) and
lifeline structures (electrical, water, sanitary sewer,
natural gas and telephone components and sys-
tems); (2) methods and data for estimating damage
and loss resulting from collateral hazards, includ-
ing fault rupture, ground failure, inundation, and
fire; (3) estimates of the time required to restore
damaged buildings and lifeline structures to their
pre-earthquake functionality; (4) inventory meth-
odology to estimate the type, distribution, and
number of man-made facilities throughout Cali-
fornia; and (5) methodology and data for estimat-
ing deaths and injuries.
The ATC-13 data and methodology were ex-
plicitly developed for evaluating the expected per-
formance of average California construction. The
report explicitly states that “the damage estimation
procedures set forth in this report are most appli-
cable for a statistically large number of facilities
and should not be applied to individual facilities
directly” (ATC, 1985, p. 307).
Since publication in 1985, the ATC-13 earth-
quake damage and loss estimation methodology
and data have been widely used for a variety of
purposes, including (1) ranking the seismic vul-
nerability of California buildings for hazard
evaluation and mitigation decision making (e.g., as
in the case of selecting buildings to be instru-
mented under the California Strong-Motion In-
strumentation Program); (2) developing a scoring
system for rapid visual screening of buildings for
potential seismic hazards (as in the case of the
FEMA 154 report, Rapid Visual Screening of
Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards: A
Handbook (first edition); (3) classifying buildings
and other structures by their earthquake resisting
characteristics; and (4) portfolio analysis by com-
ATC-13-1
Preface
panies that provide earthquake insurance for
dwellings and commercial buildings.
While never intended for use in estimating the
expected performance of individual buildings or
structures, the ATC-13 methodology and data
have also been used by practicing structural engi-
neering professionals to estimate the probable
maximum loss (PML) of individual structures for
insurance and investment decisions. The wide-
spread use of ATC-13 for PML studies prompted a
decision by the ATC Board of Directors to de-
velop this Commentary, the purpose of which is to
enable users of the ATC-13 report to understand
how these data were developed, the limitations of
the data, and issues associated with using the data
for PML studies.
The main body of this Commentary contains a
discussion of the scope and results of the ATC-13
project, a description of the most common type of
PML study, a discussion and some examples of
how ATC-13 is typically used as a basis for a
PML study, and recommended improvements to
the ATC-13 data. Also included are three appen-
dices containing information and data not included
in the original ATC-13 report (ATC, 1985):
(1) ATC-13 model building type descriptions, in-
cluding methodology for estimating the expected
performance of standard, nonstandard, and special
construction; (2) ATC-13 Beta damage distribu-
tion parameters for model building types; and
(3) PML values for ATC-13 model building types.
ATC gratefully acknowledges the profession-
als who made this publication possible. Stephanie
A. King, a seismic risk analysis specialist from
Northern California, is the principal report author.
Overview and guidance were provided by a Pro-
ject Engineering Panel consisting of Patrick Bus-
covich, Jeff Coronado, Anne Kiremidjian, Law-
rence Reaveley, and Richard Roth, Jr. Independ-
ent reviews were also provided by Ronald Ham-
burger and Andrew Merovich. The affiliations of
these individuals are provided in the list of project
participants.
The report was funded by ATC’s Henry J. De-
genkolb Memorial Endowment Fund.
Christopher Rojahn
ATC Executive Director
Preface iii
 Contents

Preface................................................................................................................................................................ iii

List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................... vii

List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................................ix

1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1
2. Development of ATC-13 ........................................................................................................................3
2.1 Historical Background on ATC-13............................................................................................3
2.2 Description of Model Building Types .......................................................................................3
2.3 Development of Damage Probability Matrices..........................................................................5

3. Probable Maximum Loss (PML) ............................................................................................................9

3.1 Most Common Definition of PML ............................................................................................9

4. PML Analysis Based on ATC-13 .........................................................................................................11

4.1 Method ....................................................................................................................................11
4.2 Examples..................................................................................................................................13
4.2.1 Example 1: Wood-Frame Single-Family Dwelling ...................................................13
4.2.2 Example 2: Steel Moment-Resisting Distributed-Frame High-Rise Building...........13
4.2.3 Example 3: Moment-Resisting Non-Ductile Concrete-Frame Mid-Rise Building....14

5. Concluding Remarks.............................................................................................................................15

Appendix A: ATC-13 Model Building Type Descriptions................................................................................17

A.1 Wood Frame Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 1) ............................................................17
A.2 Light Metal Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 2) ..............................................................17
A.3 Unreinforced Masonry Bearing Wall Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 75, 76) ..............18
A.4 Unreinforced Masonry with Load Bearing Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 78, 79, 80) ..........18
A.5 Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall with Moment-Resisting Frame (ATC-13 Facility
Class 3, 4, 5) ............................................................................................................................19
A.6 Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall without Moment-Resisting Frame (ATC-13 Facility
Class 6, 7, 8) ............................................................................................................................19
A.7 Reinforced Masonry Shear Wall with Moment-Resisting Frame (ATC-13 Facility
Class 84, 85, 86) ......................................................................................................................19
A.8 Reinforced Masonry Shear Wall without Moment-Resisting Frame (ATC-13 Facility
Class 9, 10, 11) ........................................................................................................................20
A.9 Braced Steel Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 12, 13, 14) .........................................................20
A.10 Moment Resisting Steel Perimeter Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 15, 16, 17).......................20
A.11 Moment Resisting Steel Distributed Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 72, 73, 74) ....................21
A.12 Moment Resisting Ductile Concrete Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 18, 19, 20) ....................21
A.13 Moment Resisting Non-Ductile Concrete Frame (ATC-13 Facility Class 87, 88, 89)............22
A.14 Precast Concrete Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 81, 82, 83) ........................................22
A.15 Long Span Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 91)..............................................................22
A.16 Tilt-Up Construction (ATC-13 Facility Class 21) ...................................................................23
A.17 Mobile Homes (ATC-13 Facility Class 23).............................................................................23

Appendix B: ATC-13 Beta Damage Distribution Parameters for Model Building Types ................................25

ATC-13-1 Contents v
Appendix C: PML Values for ATC-13 Model Building Types ........................................................................ 35

References and Acronym List ........................................................................................................................... 45

Project Participants............................................................................................................................................ 47

Applied Technology Council Projects and Report Information ........................................................................ 49

Applied Technology Council Directors............................................................................................................. 65

vi Contents ATC-13-1