1.

0.8

Failure Probability
0.6

F(t)
0.4 F(t) with DP
measured after 5 years

0.2

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time [years]

Failure probability based on paper insulation condition calculated straightforward (hot-

spot temperature in steady state, uncertainty estimation by error bounds).

1.0
Bushings
Paper
0.8 Load 0.7 p.u.

LTC
0.6
Reliability

Paper
Load 0.8 p.u.
0.4

0.2

0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time [Years]

Reliability based on paper insulation condition, LTC and bushings calculated

straightforward (hot-spot temperature in steady state, uncertainty estimation by error
bounds).
 1.0
Bushings

0.8
Paper 0.7 p.u.

Reliability
LTC
0.6
Paper 0.8 p.u.

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time [Years]

Reliability based on paper insulation condition, LTC and bushings calculated

straightforward (hot-spot temperature in steady state, uncertainty estimation by error
bounds), with other thermal input parameters.

1.0
Bushings

0.8 Paper 0.7 p.u.

LTC
Reliability

0.6 Paper 0.8 p.u.

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time [Years]

Reliability based on paper insulation condition, LTC and bushings calculated

straightforward (hot-spot temperature in steady state, uncertainty estimation by error
bounds), with bigger uncertainties for the DP estimated values.
 1.0

0.8
F(t) small uncert

Failure Probability
0.6
F(t) bigger uncert

0.4
F(t) small uncert
DP after 5 years

0.2

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time [years]

Failure probability based on paper insulation condition calculated straightforward (hot-

spot temperature in steady state, uncertainty estimation by error bounds); bigger
uncertainties means sigma(DP value)=error bound calc; small uncer means
sigma(DP)=Error bound est/2.

1000

Ea

100

10
Ci

A DPi

0.1
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
I [p.u.]

Sensitivity analysis MRL

 1000

100

Ta DPe

Ci
10

0.1
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
I [p.u.]

Sensitivity analysis MRL

1000

100 DThr DTor

x
R
10 y
Ci

0.1

0.01
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
I [p.u.]

Sensitivity analysis MRL