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Updated 3/12/11
Target Price
Since the runup high of $10 was made on 9/4/09 in the previous runup, SPPI appears to have
only diluted once. They diluted 6.6225M shares on 9/13/09 shortly after their CRL.
So, assuming they had 41.2085M outstanding shares prior to their dilution (50.49M currently -
6.6225M diluted), I figure they can reach 8.61 again [ ((1 - (6.6225 / (41.2085 + 6.6225))) * 10 ]
before 4/29/11.
Upcoming Catalysts
We ended 2010 with over $100 million in cash, cash equivalents and
investment.
Our net losses in 2010, 2009 and 2008 were approximately $48.8 million,
$19.0 million and $14.2 million
History of financing
6/12/09 $10M
5/27/09. $20M
Analysis
SPPI appears to have 12-18 months of financing available but it likes a cushion
of safety around the $100M mark. Most likely it may finance $50M sometime this
year and the best time to finance would be after the 4/29 sNDA.
~3/4/11 FUSILEV RTU sNDA submitted 1/4/11; FDA has up to 60 days to formally accept
the submission.
Low risk for refusal to file. SPPI has done 3 submissions before and none have
been refused: submit1, submit2, submit3
In the latest CC, Raj said that they met with the FDA in person to make sure they
had everything they needed.
For submit1, it jumped 1-4% on high volume. For submit2, it jumped 7-19% the
next day on high volume. For submit3, it jumped 6-12% on high volume.
I predict that an acceptance for any sNDA could boost the share price by 5-
10% while a refusal to file could swing it in the opposite direction.
~3/20/11 Zevalin bioscan sNDA submitted 1/20/11; FDA has up to 60 days to formally
accept the submission.
Bulls
Bears
Product
Market Potential: 2010 $61M. Colorectal market larger than existing FUSILEV market.
Rivals:
Finances
Expiration:
Burn rate:
Finances:
Resources