Reaching the New Bottom Billion:

Global Poverty Reduction to 2015 and…

Beyond

Andy Sumner
IDS @ Sussex University
 MDGs 2.0 debate will evolve rapidly…

• SG taskforce (+ SG
sustainability group).

• 2013 special ‘event’.

• 2015 General Assembly

agrees (or not)?
 Won’t divert attention from MDGs 1.0…

• the core MDG concerns

likely to remain;

• Vast amount of
innovation in indicators;

• And… MDGs took 10

years;
MDGs 1.0 had impact in different ways…
a. Adoption

b. Adaptation

c. Allocation

d. Aberrations

e. Acceleration
 Did the MDGs 1.0 speed up poverty
reduction?
90%
% countries
80% making faster
70% progress
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
All developing
10% countries
0% Least Developed
$1 per day Primary Gender Mortality Countries
Ed. Sub-Saharan Africa
 What about the poorest…?

Vietnam
Under 5
Uganda mortality
Nepal

Malawi
MDG average
Kenya Poorest 20%
Ghana

Benin

Bangladesh
0 50 100 150 200 250
 What about gender + urban/rural inequality?

MDG 1: Parity of underweight kids

MDG 1Ratio
Ratio of female to male Underweight
of rural toprevalence
urban Ratio of poorest to richest

4.0
3.6
3.5 3.5
3.5
3.0 2.9
2.5 2.6
2.5
2.5 2.2 2.2
1.9 2.0 1.9
2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
1.7
1.6 1.5
1.6 1.6
1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
1.5 1.3 1.2
1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0
0.9 1.0
Ratio

1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

0.8 0.8 0.8

0.5
0.0
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 So, what might shape MDGs 2.0…?

• the deficiencies of the MDGs (ownership,

accountability/right/equity; the poor/poorest);

• the new, post-economic crisis global politics (the

G20, emerging powers; new donors);

• the changing context (new vulnerabilities and

changes in global poverty);
The story of the new bottom
billion
 Three key messages…
1. Most of the world’s poor no longer live in low
income countries (LICs);

2. 72% of the world’s poor - 960m - a ‘new bottom

billion’ in middle income countries (MICs);

3. Is this the end of ODA and the return of politics,

inequality and governance or a new
multilateralism as cost to end poverty is too high?
 Aid 2.0 – not just MDGs 2.0…

• 2015-2025: Drastically fewer poor countries

• Consequences?
1. ODA will increasingly be for fragile/conflict states;
2. MICs increasingly won’t want/need ODA but will
want ‘policy coherence’ vs ‘traditional’ Donors
probably want ‘progressive change’ - equity/rights;
3. Convergence around need for Global Public Goods
but political obstacles over distribution of
contributions/benefits.
 Three paths to MDGs 2.0…
MDGs 2025 MDGS+ ONE WORLD

Ideas Same as Inner and Sustain-

MDGs outer core ability +
poverty redn wellbeing
Indicators Same as Global and Global (+
MDGs local local?)

Institutions Same as National Global

MDGs deliberation governance
process
Reaching the New Bottom Billion:

Global Poverty Reduction to 2015

and… Beyond

Andy Sumner
IDS @ Sussex University