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Nat.urall:y I .1Ih to. be",nt rr"", t.hue dlonoweri... You h.... wery el<te""l.e tallowing and. it. ba. occurred t.o me 'that we. miprt. reach e.n .rralliem.nt mutually Bat.l.hlE!I"t.or,r. In ;JoUr l.t.t.er. I bay. oeeaelo:nally lIeen t"etere~e to ·oOta.r .ouroe. or information" .h1 ..h prompl.od ... tc hop. that you might. beoc lnt<on.t.d. :.!.. reov.r trOlll your •• ,...10<0l.t ....... I lull!>o that you .... not tamiU ith my dloccvo r i... ill no .i.e n&tlea.ltettt any "'''.,..nell thsntc in .oNioll l.tter... Fer .exampl. when thll Dow...,.JolllJlII Itldutitri .•lB madill top of 107 llll.t. April I _ could han torec .. t.d the 8~ bot.t.om.. l1li tho .pprox~t.e <lat.. it .ould be n"olled but. ;your l.t""r. could have 4 the D:J .. t.boory ,.,'" tot ndoni"'" long pCllt.1oN. I do DOt 010.1 t.bat t.hb oan .l .. y. be dono. ... Needle •• t.o y Lila pno.t1J;. ot :your .ehlee .oulcl hawe IIIoata-r~lly b.naf1ted t.hereby. ImJlderll p.repit (.11.l1li to t'C[!C'It. .t. th roeent. major bull .wing .il1 be f'olle.ed. by a .... or bear ccllsp.... Thil i. lOOt 1.11 op Won ut. m~ , tlla .pp •
T.. lr IDUDh10•• mechanical than the Do. theory bu .. add gr.at lllok.. Ona gl.vae nyc-real .ignalll abolt invariably at c1nor. Lntttnedlate and: major teT!ll.inala.. A~ot.har elAAelf'lfle ... vea of all tIKlvoment. whi.h I tlnd .lz. Tho ethor con,. tho tlmo .1 erae nt .hlch hoIl been .orr.ct .1Il0<l tn. 19.52 bott.am. Wbon dl ..o ..... nc. o.oura t.hII t1Ju ........ nt .Up. out. ct ,.or t.s~o",rl1y. Theile d.lIC(j1ver1e. a~ to:ree. •• Llng '1'.1"0 'llbloh it e.d.QP\.lQIl .c-uld.

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Unl ••• you coDt.~pll1t.a an early ot .. trip to Det.ro1t .nd bo!l .... bo .culd I>i ....... "goo<! any ODa .1.e k;ng•• -IlJ"thing about my t.ilo
• n4

."P.""

v18it. "to th. Co L.. would )'OU be 'IIl..lllru to p.y •• b.ck' I "".", your .gent b.n. ~:r. ClbQUn. oh&nt"t.1"'. but ple... DOte tllat ,,"1thor ... nor d.i.eoyerlsll. v.ry~y.

A. )J,iK.

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'llTIO U

mpeH.O60JIbU1e~
M.,q KaK

B rno Bpe-

peaKlJUR,

HanpaBileHHCUl.

60JLee Macl1111l.a6H020 mpenba:

5
(C)

pa.3BUBaernCH

mpeMR

OOJl.HQMU, U

amo

BepHO

O.lUl

mpeHOOB mo6blX cme-

neneii.
CBH3h <pOpr-.-lbl. CTeneH11 8Ta 11:OTHOCHTCJIbHOrO HanpaBJI(,HH1J

noxaaana
B JIlOfioM

rra puc. 1-4.

MJIJIIOCTPaI.l11H

orpaacaer

06I.l.l,11ii npHHIJ:Hll: TaH.

:r

lot

,_t ;

2 BonHbI

PhIHO"<IHOM UI1KJIe BOJIHbI fiY,!{yT nOAPa3,1le'lHTbCR


Ta6J]HQe.

HaH nOKa3aHO

(1), (2), (3), (4), (5), IA), (B), (C) ; 8 BOIIH 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B. C, IH.Jl. = 34 BOnHbI

HoC'm:.

HH puc. 1-2, HH puc. 1-3 HrIH puc. 1-4 He nO.i1.pa3yMeBaIOT OKOH'·IaTeJIhKan 11 npextzte, 3TOT 60JIee HpynHbID IUflUI arrroraarnuector CTaMO-

Pl1C.

1-3

BHTC.HAByr.1B qaCT.HMH BOJIHhI nop

cnenyrorneri. 60JIee

BbiCOKOH

crenexa.Jlo 'lex
H nponecc
no-

nona nponorracaerca

,ABH}f<(,HHeanepen, nponornsaerca

26

Bonnoecw:
'LlUCJIO BOJJH

f1PI1HL[JID BJUHfUITA

Tnaea 1_ OOUIlUl

ICOH~Il!JWl

27

JCaJlCAOU

CTeDeHH

,lI;BHlICytqaJI
HanOOJIhllIHe BOJIHbI

+ JCoppelCTHBBaJI
(aHraar)

= ~HKJJ
2
8 34 144

BOfl}-IbI npn

perpecce.

OH npOCTO CyY.IUioCTHaH

OTMe"Ia.lI: ¢opMa

npOIICXOLU1T

TO. <ITO nponc-

(HMny.m.C) 1

XO,[U1T. 06.H3aHa no;:~v~mnTe

nIl

COCTOHTb 113 ITHTII II Tpex qTO :3TO ~IHHI1J';laJlbHoe. -

Han; 8TIIM.

II BbI nollMeTe. 8¢¢eKTllBHOe H

H.

nomr? cne-

11x aantiom.nrae
CJIeLlYJOume

nonpaanenenna

nonpaaneneana

5
21

3
13

,'J;OBaTeJThHO. HaI100nee

AOCTHqh 11HQ}IeOaTeJlbHOCT11.

89

55

cmOCHHaR
HlIe.

BOJIHa

He

-rpetionanne. - xoropoe n03BOJIHeT npocpecca B JIHHeiIHoM D;Bl1JReHMI1. EiJUHztonycxaer HO_'1eOaTe,'IhHOCTI1. HCUIMeHbllIee nene8TO

coaztaromee
aSUJlCeHwt

KO!IeOaHI1H,

zrenemre sra

Tpll

BOJ1HbI. 1)JH BOJIHbI.

@
(5)

HanpaBlleHWllComopblX
H020 QI1BaIOmHX

~lepeayl{)mc.H. aaztasart,

He ooecne4lIBaJOT

nocmynameJIbYCJlOBHll.

@
(C)

orpamrHXpaavieptr, )J,mIEl03HI1KHOIJeHIIH nporpecca B onpenenenHOM HanpaBJIeHH11, HeCMOTpR na nepaonsi KOppeKUHl1. )lBllmeHl1e B HanpaDJIeHlU1 rnaaaoro TpeHLJ;a .llomHHO COCTORTb. no MeHblllei1 Mepe. 113 WITH BOmf. DP11 :3TOM B03MomHO coxpaneane ¢JI)lKryaUIrii: na ¢OHe
(eCJI11 He JJ,orro.'IHI1TeJIbHbIX HanpaBJIeHHOrO ,l(Bl1meHI1H

uea.

XOTR

aorta

Morno

ObI ObITb

II OOJIblile. 3TO

HaI160TJee 3(pcpel,THBHM

cpopMa

npepsrancroro

)l;BInKeHHfl

snepen -

5-3.

npnpona,

KaR

rrpaanno.

l1JJ:eT no HaI100nee

3lP¢eHTHBHoMY

nyrn.

1 21 89 8 34 1~

© II
2

(5)

C"reneHh

BOJlHLI:

0603Ha'lleBHe

H KJlaCcHlJlHKa.I~IUI no

Bee
MepaM

BOJIHhI MoryT

K.;mccHlPIIUHpOBaThCH

ax

OTHOCHTeJlhHblM

pasII no-

llJIlI CTerreHII.

C'renem,

BOilHbI

onpC';J,e.JIHeTCH ee COCTaB:UIlOlll,l1X 8JL1IllOTT

pasxrepora

JIO:lHeHlleM

OTHOCllTeJIbHO C Hell

B0.11H.

ee

(ee KOl',mOHeHToB).

cocenanx
HaM COHOM OH Mor Bbl6paJI

II 3aKJI104alOm;HX

ee B ce6e.

,1J.aJI Ha3BaHIIH

BOJI-

AeBHTII

~----------------~~

nOIlHbI~ PbIHO"'HbI~~W1-:KI1:-----------~

PMC_ 1-4

ureH
HaH.

crenenen. OT caMOH MeHhIlleH. pa3JIl{QHMOll JIHllih na vrarpadmxe. ,ll,O callWH 60.'1bllIOIi BOJIHbI. CYI11.eCTBOBaHue KOTOPOH npezmonarart.. IICXO}J,H 113 )l;OCTyTIHblX B TO BpeMH n;aHHbIX. OH cnenyromyro Tepr..U1H01l0rHlO ,ll,JIR 3THX crerrenen. OT HaIfOOJlbH3l1.1\1eHbllleH: OO.TIhlllOH cynepuaxn, cynepumcn, UlIKJI, nepmrqManaH, MHHYTHaJl [subminuette) B CBOro (minute), Me."Ih4aifrnaR l1.1lliJIbI COCTOHT

crpoemor JleHHR na

ereneneii. 06paTHhlli rrpouecc rrorrpaane60JIee Me.inme crenemr, OqeDH)l;Ho. H,neT TO~ll{O TaH me. HaCKOJIbHO MbI MomeM onpenemrrs, l\poMe TOm, nee HOJIHhI ozmospeeaenno aUJOSUl1 B COCTaB zrpyrnx II COCTTIQBJleHbll13 zrpyrnx HOJlli
BOJIH 601lee BhtcollliX

rrpOMe:mYTOtIHaH.

(mtnuette) II HaHMeJIh'-laIflilM
113 rrepBHIJIIbIX MeJhj!TO"<IHLle, HCn0JTh30BaTh roAHH BOJIR. :HOTOpbIe.

crenean.
MeHblUllX

oxepezrs.

pa3611f121OTCH

a
II

IlOTOM

na

B01lHhI

CaMhlX

ereneuen.
BrrOJIHe

zrpyryro

TepMI1HOJIOrmo.

XOTH K 3TOH

na npoMoacao npllBhIK.IIH. H: ceKOMlPOPTHO.

60_'IbIIII1HCTBO

npaKTIlKOB

'-I}'BCTBYJOT 8J1JIl1ona. BOJIHbl

ce6H

IIo'leMY

5-3?
HI1Hor,lJ;a He pa3MLIlll.JIR'l OKa3blBaKlTCR nsrn, Ha,;:J.TeM. DOJIH rrpn nO'-leM)! ~OCTH Tpl1

ynoTpe6JIHH

ItJIaCCH¢tmaUHlO qTOObl nOMeqaTb

,lJ;Ul .roro,
CalVI aJIJUfOTT HUH ¢OPMOH PLlHhOB nporpecCe nporpeCCHI1.

na rparpmce,
crertesra HHmf'

HeOOXOJ(HMa

onpeCTaH-

,n:e:JeHHaFi cxersa.

II03BO-'lmom;aH nOHa3aHO

pa3T]JIQaTb

B01lH B PbIHO<JHOH Ta6m-tu,c. MbI

1\.aR

B npaaezteanoa

28

BOJIHOBOit

flPJf1-11.!Jm GJLJ1J10ITA

29
0603HaQeHltn, rvloMeHTOB •

;:r,aprH3I1poSaJ1H J(OTOPhlX

nOpR,!l;OK l\H¢Phl

ecrs

H 6YKBbl

crrenoaanna a ecrt,
Ha

BO'IHOBbIX HeCKOJIbhO

cpeznr zro cnx nop


HanpaB-

qCJ-m:ii

Ha

rparpuxe
nOHMMaTb.

,.J,ucTaTO'-lHO

-rpyrmo.

BhIIllt'YK23aHHbIH

CTaHJ{apT

ooeCne'-ll1B2CT BamHo

ObICTPYlO

DM3yaThJ-IYIO

Opl1f'HTaI.-UflO_ M 0603Ha'-leHHflI1CnOJIb3YlOTCfl

OTcyrCTBOBaBIIII1X. J1eHI1HX. OHa

TIporpeCCI1H

HB.IlHCTCH

Ot'(,KOH("QHOn

B 060HX

'-ITO 3TH Ha3BaHHH

OCHOBhlBaeTCH BOlIHbl lIH¢p.

rrerxo

3anOMHHaIOllJ,ei1:cJl

I !OBTopHe'VIO(,p 1,1MTpeMll MaClli-

cneU11a.ThHbIM

06pa30M

,nJIH 0IIpe.l\eJIHeMhLX aHaJ1HTMK

crenerreri
pbIHKa

BOJ1H_HCnOJlh3Yfl

Tn. ,lJ.saa.."}'llUIe

0603HaQCUOTCH

Qepe,lJ}'lOllJ,H::\1I1Cfl Ha6op2MH 1I0MeqaIOTCR YMeHhWeHl1H

.uaHH-,,'lO WlaCCn¢HK8.U,lflO. J£eHHe

MOJ£eT TO~IHO

onpene.mrrt-

nonoreorpa-

CKID( 11 apaOCKl1X
ua60paMl1 Ta6a

pm1CKIIX

IJ;HCPP,

Bornrsr OOJIhlliHX creneaeii aa KOTOPbThU1 no xrepe


nafiopa aparicrcax
HaoopOM ~a¢p. PHMCl\.HA

BOJIUhI B 06111eM }J,BHJKeHHH ¢Ol-I,n;OBorO

srtepen,

nO}lOOHO

TO'\zy KaK ¢HQCCROrO

urapo'ra

ztonrora rrcnorn.ayro'rcn
ct>pa3a (minute)

)lHH

onpenenenna
HHAeKC

BOJIH CJIepYlOT rpH CMellHIOTCH

KOTopble, IIM¢P

B CBOIO O'-lCM T-A-

nonoaeemra.

«TIPOMbIIllJIt'HHbIH

L(Oy-)1.:mOH-

pem.,

O'-lepe,l{HhIM

060TpU

3HaQeHHHX

ImppeKTI1BHhLX H Tp"

BOJ"lH CXO)lHbIM OYKBbl. CTPOqHblf'

o6pa30M pHM('I\He

xepezrytorca
ll,M¢PhI

npOMelli]!TOGHOH

sarnaansre
3yroTCH

crpo-nrsre
HHme

ncnornBhlCOKI1X

roUt

cTt'nt'HCI1

Ma.rlOll,

a 3aJ'JIaBHhlt'

~ }lJIH

oonee

Bomle@Ma"lOn (minor) BOJ1HhI 1 aornne (3) nepBH'llfOn [primary] BOJIHbI @ UJ1K!IH'IeCKOn (cycle) BOJIHbI 1 cyrrcpumora-recrcon BO.'1HbI (V) TeJl}'lllero OO.'(bWOrO cyrtepunxna» onpenenxer CrreLU,l(tmqecI0'lO TOqKY na I1CTOB MMH)'THOH (intennediate) rryrn

ca uaxornrrca

creneaeri, TaR 'ITO 6ernbIII B3rllH.ll. na rparpmc OOHapY:HmBaeT JIeHH}'lO nepcrrercnray rra era aperaennon nneane. [Hexoropsre
rrprrsenenasre
B KHI1re, OTRJIOH.HIOTCH OT 3Toro CTaH;::I;apTa. ObVll1 C03;::1;aH.bI;::I;O era npHI-IHTHH.)

onpenePI1C)'HKH IIOCJ(OJIbHy

pl1'leCKOM

psuma nnepert.
onpezteneunyio crerresn.,
TO'-lHO Tt'M He ::\1eHee MOmeT OR2B

Bee

HOJIHbl l1'v1elOT HeB03Mo.mHb!M

aaruca

orrpenemrrs crenem.
Ha~IaJ10 HOBon nJ"lH

Teh'YllJ,ei1. HOJIHbl. CTeneHI1

'-IaCTHOCTI1 nO,D,BOJIH.

ofipaayronrnx

BO'1HhI.

on-

penenaiorca.
CTenelD>
BOnBLl

HCXO,nH He 11.3Uf'HOBOrO KOTOPaR HBJIfleTCH

epesrennoro paaxrepa
~eHbI U BpeMelII1. 3Ha"leHI1H He HMeeT

HOJIHbl. f{ c'-Iac,D,J"lH yc-

5 BOJIH

B Ranpaune-

3 Bonllbl
HHD,

IIIIH TpeHA8

aanpaanenpo-rnaonoB

a 113 ee ¢OpMhI, 1'hlO, TOqHOf'

¢YHKI(I1t"I1 06hlqHO

onpenenemre

crenestn

nOHCHOM TpeH,lU"

nennroro
BaeTCH }KeHae

nporH03HpOBaHI1H,

rrOCKOJlbhY 31-1aTh,

3Ha~n'l'reJlbHO

aazcnee oxaasrOO:lhwoe ,u;saHa3Ba.IIHe_

apaocroie
DoJIbWOH

{f AaJIee

C~epyKlT

UHq,PhI)

aarnanrrsre

( f )..Ia.rJeecnenytor
6}'RBhI)

OrTlHOCUmeJlbHaRcrenem.,
IJ;eH,

=rro

o:mH,n;aeTCfl

uar-nroro

Ba:JKH{,f'.

'-IeM p;aTb eMY TO'IHOe

Tlocne-

Cynepmncn

CD@@@@
[I) [II) (III) (IV)
I

Cyneprrmor
l\MKJI nepBHQHaR npOMeH\YTO'lHaR

M
V

®
(b) b

Q
[c]

nyioutee

pa3BHTl1e BOJlHbL

C06hITHll.

RaE npaB11Jl0,

rroseoraer

TOQHO

onpenemrrt,

(a)

crenem,
tIJyHK~H

III

IV

@®@0®
(1) (2) (3) (4J (5) 2 3 4

(6)
(A) A

®
(B) B

©
(C) C

BOJIH

Manaa
MHHYTHaJI

Mem, qaHlllaH
HaJ1MeJIb'lalllllaJI

CD ®@)®
(i) ii iii

0
tv v

@
(a) a

®
(b) b

Q
(c)

(ii) [iii) (iv) (v)

Ka:m,AaH BOJIHa BbInOJI1-meT OjJ,HY lid AByX ¢yHKIJ;I1H: 8TO nl160 oeiicmeue .. '11160 npomuBooeiicmBue. BOJIHa MomeT nHOO npOLI,OJI:maTb ,u;BHmeHl1e BO.'1Hbl 60J1bIlH."M crerrenn. .TIu60 npeptcaar» ero, <DyHRLJ.H.H BO.·JHb! onpenenae-rcsr ee omHOCUmeJIbHOIl HUnpaBJleJ-u-toCmblO. J1.eLlcrT18YfOU!UR. I1J"lH mpenooeasi. BOJlHa HanpaBJIeHa rrmx »ce. RaK n Bon-

( ~ nanee cnenyror
apaficmre Ulll:j>PbI)
,lJ,JIH y=reuoro 3Ha'-IeIU1H na 06bl'-IH0 Haa60JIee

( ~ nanee

CJlelJYKlT

na
oaH

6oJ"lbIIIen

[na

e,!l;I1HI1I~Y) CTeneHH.

QaCTblO

KOTOPOH

OHa flBJIfleTCJL 8TO

3aTJIaBHhle 6Yl-i:BLI)

rrpomLLBOaetlcmB~JlO14W'l,
BOJIHa. xo'ropaa [ua elll1H1-UZY) CTeneHl1

MJIH npomueompeHooBru:r,
rrpOTI1BOnOJIO}KHO qaCTbIO cOCTaBHOI1

BOJIHa BOJIHe OHa

rno-

nartpanrrerra

60:IhWf'H flBJIJfeTCH.

acenarerrsm-rxnr
M TaK,o;anee,

ORa3blBaJOTCH

000-

xoropofi

no TErry aorrrna.

creneus

II' 12, 13, 14, Is

r.o;e HH,o;eKcblYKa3bIBaIOT TaKl1X 0603Ha-

I(enCTBYlOwue MH [nanpnsrep.

HOJIHh( 0603HaQalOTCH

HeQeTHblMI1

I.l11¢p<Th1H 116YKBaBOJI-

0 rJ,HaHOqUTaTh

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1, 3, 5,

a,

C Ha

puc. 1-2)_

TIpoTHBoAelicTByroIIll1e

30
HbI 0003HaqaIOTCH

BOJIHOH(Ji1 nPffHI1.J1n

3JIJllf01TA

ThaBa 1. 06LLJP.51. JCoHty>nwffl

31

qeTIIhI'fH

L1J1cppaMl1l1

0YKBar-1l1

(Hanpvu"lep.

2, 4, b
ECJJH

peii.lU1Te Bep,eHHoro

na puc.
Bce OhI

1-2).
B011HbI pa3BHBaIOTCH KOppefITIIDHo. ;:(eMCTD)'lOw,Me BOJ1HhI pa3BHBaJIHCh KaK ,l1,BHlKynIne, TOr,l1,a He ):{ellCTBlInHTb

rnase 3. Bernoe npoerrenne 01.1eHb c~aT~ro I{OHcneKTa. zianee, rapaHTHpyeT. qTO Bbl. no rcpamren srepe. Y3HaeTe

npHKOH-

rrportraozrencrnyroume

uenUHH

H Tepl\lliHhI.

na xoropsre
BOJlHOBOrO

,l1,aJIee MhI 6YAeM

CChmaThCfl

KaK Ha He-

nee

o6XO,l1,lfi1hle

acrretcrta

npnmtana.
TeXBH"leCKHX acneKTOB BOJlH. 6y,II,YT OIiU ¢opMym1-

Oh1J10 ObI HHKanOH TeJIbHO, nOgBo,"IH. TopbIe

Heo6xo,lJ,HMOCTH

B pa3JlWIHbIX

-repmraax,

601IbIIIHHCTBO O)l;HaKO.

,l1;eHCTBYK>IIJ.HX BOlIH nOKa3aHO B

nonpaanenarorca na

KaK oYAeT

}l,eHc-rBYIOllUfe nO,D;pa3,D;elIHIOTCfl HOHCTPYKU;HH

B011HhI pa3BIiBaIOTCH Ha

cneztyroutax paanerrax, HeKOno xoppexrnaaoa cxeeae, TO


HX Bapna:QTHO Toro. .. ,l1,eTaJIhHOe

KpaTKoe

H3nmICeHHe

p;OnOJIHHTenhHhIX TeXHWleCKHe Dn110Th

):{ono.'lHlITe.JIbHbIe nO;:J,po6HO 06cym,naTbC.ll pJKlTCH ,llBlilKytWiX rnaCHO HaCTOJlhKO

acnexrsr.
KOHU;a

xacaronmeca

ecru

mpu aonmsr aeUCmBl.m

Hm1

p,o

rnaasr 2..3)l;eCb
3TO B03:v10lliHO: TO qTO

3HaHHe pa3HIilzy

MO,l1,em1 TpeoyeTC.H

JI:lIH

1.ITOOhl nOJfl{MaTh BI1J],OM. KOTOPaJI He

xparxo,

HaCKOlIhKO

6011blllllHCTBO Bf'ACT ce6.H co-

Mem,r:zy ¢yrmWfei1: Ha

M oBllJlrylLj,IJM

aomr npnamaaer

rpopsry 4

I1MIIY.'lbca.

ecru

OT]JaiKeHa lillme

B 3TOM

puc. 1-1-1 4 ..Flonnoe nOHHMaI·me ¢op~. rnane, npOflCHI1T. nonexry Jl,lbI BBelIH 3Tl1

paccraorpensrx
TepMHHbI B CJIO-

nHTHBo11HOBOH

Mo;r,eJ1H, nOXO>Kt'H

na ry.

noxasaaa na puc. 1n0,lU30JIHhI

1 no 1-4.
nOABO.:IHa

Ii B KOTOPOH nO,llBOJIHa

He BXO,iJ,liT B oO.'laCTh

I, a

aaps

BOJIH 8J1JIHOTTa.

BapH~

OCBOBHOH

Te~1 6hIJI Obi

BOJIHOBOM :tI{eHHaft BeAeHIiH BbIIlle

npmnran

nerrco

npHMeHHMbIM. Ohma nOJIHhIM

ecrrn

6bI

npennono-

3 He HB..'lHf'TCH CaMOH KOPOTKOH. fpaqmK nHTHB011HOBoro llMnpaanno, orpamrxen napan.rre11bHhIMIi lIHHllHMM. . Ozura 113 ~Hmynu1X BO;IH fl I1Mny11bce. TO ecrt, 1. 3 I1JIH 5, D TllIIH'IHOM cnyxae yaennnena, TO ecrt, Ha'\1HOrO ,wrnHHee, qeM ABe ,npyrlle. Cymecrayer ):IBe pe,II,KHe na pHaIUin ;:(Bll>I<JIlll1X BOJIIi. naastaaexuae )J.MarOHfu""lbHbIMll 'rperrvnuca.
KaN yrOTIhHHKaIVlH, ,Al1arOHaJIhHhle KOTophle .HBJIIDDTCH l\IOp;eJlRMli B03HllKaIOT B OAHOM c.rryqae KJIHHoo6pa3J-IOH B ¢OpMhl. ll'peyroJlbHHKH

cyr:QHOC'Th

KOHCTPyKUMI1

OflHCaHHeM

psunca.
XOTH

Pe<L""IhHOCTb. K C'laCThIO H)J.efl

I1JIU l{ HeCGaCTblO,

He HaCTOJlh-

naxane
C)

nHTI1BOJIHOBOH II BO

KO "pOCTa.

epone

UHKjlH1.JHOCTH TOGH:yIO

qeCROH JRH3HH ueIIIJ;HH

nOAPa3YMeBaeT

na Ph1HRax noeropaenocrt..
y

11,'111 GeJIOBeB BOJIHOBa.H KOHeCTb MaCca

nOCJ1e,l1;OBaTeJ1hHOCTI1 JIlUllh npO'-IHX CJIY'"IaflX TOlIhl{O

(BOJ1Ha MJII1

1 WIH A)
60.""Iblllell

B KOH:Qe (B01IHa
6011hllle Ha

B011UhI..

acex Y

ztonycr.aer

orporauyio
1(,Hue

BapHaTHBHOCTh. ,l1,8.lIee B 3TOH

KOTOPOi1 oy~eT

tl:OppeKTHBHhIX

BOJIH 31IaqIiTeJlbHO

BapHau;l1ll.

Dtaamsre
l{OTOPhIX

H3 HliX

cpaKTWreCKHX

nonaaarem.cra.

rrrase

nO,llp06HO

onn-

naatsraaxrrca
HhIMI1 qalOT 6}'RBhI

anraaraxta (noxaaansr 0
n

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1.621.

nOKa3aHHbIH

npeAnOJI01KI1M.

'-ITO

rraer npmrerrr; zrna 'rpetizrepa OhIJIH

KaK nOKa3aHO ua puc. 4-1. peaxaa rcoppercnan '1aIIJ;e ncero CTpeMHTCH K B03spaTY Ha 61,8% H.!ll" ua 50% Ilpel(bl;('y~H BOJIHhl. ocotieuao Kor.n;a ona rrpOHBJIHeTCH teaK BO.'1H8 2 Hl\uzyJIbca. BOJIJ-Ia B rrpocroro srrraara IlJU'! BOJII-Ia X 130 MHOmeC"TBeHHOM aaraare BoKOB1,le KOppeHlI,I1H 1JalI~e scero cOBepIllalOT B03BpaT H8 38.2% npeztsizrymea HMnyJIhCHOii BOJIHhl. ocofiesmo xorzta OHn npOHBJIRJOTl"H xax BOJIHa 4. "lTD 11 noxaaano na puc. 4 2.

140

BQ1IHOBOU

r1PHHL(Hn OJIJIHOITA

DlQBa 4. AH.a.n.u.."'j nlHoUleHI.Lll o

141

KOppeHl{H11 na

xroryr
4-2,

HMf'Th

:n060H

pa3Mep.

OTHOIUCHf1R,

nOKa3ID-IJlhIC STOBHI1MaO!1;HanO

.llpyroi1 B011Hbl

Tl1n11"1HhIM

BapHaHT

pa3BIIT11.fI

COCTOMT B TOM, ¢1160Ha~H

"ITO ,nJlI1Ha

puc. 4-1
MOI\IeHry

Oha3hlBalDTC.H

1I11IUh TeH,n:eHI.l;Hei1.

K coacanenmo.
TpYAa.

5 HHOI'.a;a
BOjlHbl

CHR3aHa

H03¢>¢HllHeHToM BOJ1Hbl

C pa('cTOHHJleM na

My
une.

60'lbIlIHHCTBO 113MepHTb

aHa.rJI11'lU<OB YACJIHIOT =rpeaeaepnoe KoppeKQ111O He COCTaBJIHeT

OT na-rana

1 )1,0 KOHIJ;a
pacrnacemre BOJ1Ha

3,

rcarc nOKa3ID-IO

nOCKOJIbhY

MOHC'Tpl1pYJOll.l:eM B03HUKaIOT. xorzia

HOJ1HbI paCTHH)'Ta. BOJIHa

5.

OTHOWeHI1H B Tex

puc. 4-4. tse0,382 H 0.618


KOr-

3Ha'l11Te,'lbHO MelK.llY

60nee

TOQIIhIMH

11Ha,n;elliHhIMll

OHa3bIBaIOTCH

OTHOIIIeHl1H

5 He

peJJ;Kl1X CJly<IaHX, BO;1Ha

BOJIHa.... m B 11Mll),JIhCe, H OOb1CHflCTCfl

pa3BOpa"-Il-IDaIOllU1MHCH pa3AeJle.

B O,llHOM nanpaa-

Aa paCTHHYTOH onpasaanno. 1'0 cesenua,

OHa3bIBaeTCH

1.

MMeHHO

2.

"ITO BnOJIHe 30J1OTO-

JIeHH11, 'lTO

B cnenyromew

'laCTO

)1,eJII1T BClD MMII}'JIbCHYJO na

HO.TIIY no rtpannny

haH nOKa3aHO KOTopat'

puc. 4-5.
HeKOTopblM OKa3bIBaeTCH HS YlKe CAeJIaHpacrauyroa. TO

BOT o606LQeHHe,

nO)J;ROW'IT irror

HblX Ha.r.m HaOJIIO,lJ,eI-fI1i:i: eCJI11 BOJIHa HOJIJ-la 4 ~IaCTO lJ,e}U1T uenoson

1He

zmanaaoa

l-Il\UZYJIbcHoii

BOJIHhI no npasnpan-

JIY
na

30110TOro

Ce"-IeHI1H.

B 3TI1X
Ha

CJI}'LJaJIX rrocrreztaaa
I.l;eHoll

"-IaCTb 11MnyJIbCa ((,(,JIH BORHa BOJIHa

0 382

OT o6~ero

npojinennoro

paccToHHHH

5 He

paCT.HHYTa), 'ra,

RaJ( nOKa3ID-IO Ha puc. H

puc. 4-6:
flpUJ\.lepbI

II

0,6L8,

ecrnr

5 paCTHl-I)'npnnene-

RaK noxasano

4-7.

113 peansaon

lliH3Hl-1

HhI rra puc. TOll

6-8

6-9.

3Ta

rropsra

OHa3bIBaeTCH TO'-IKa

HeCHO'lbIW BOJIHbl

pacnnsmsa-

B TOM CMbICJ'Ie.

'lTO

KOHKpeTIIaH

BH)'Tpl1

4,

KOTOP8.R

PMc.4-1

PMc.4-2

COOTHoweHHR

ABH~

BOJIH

Hax 5
puc.

6blJIO 3aMe'IeHO

B rrrase HJllI

2,

xorna

BOlIHa

CTpeM.fITCH

K paneHCTHY

OTHOIIIeHHIO

3 paCTHH)'Ta, BOJIHbI 1 11 0.618. KaR nOKa3aHO I-Ia


aonasi
npOHBJIHIO r TeHPaGT~JI(eHv.e 1peTbeM BonHbI 3aROHaK03¢Qm-

AeHqHlO

4-3 . .lleMcTmnenhHO, rc B3aIiMOCBH311.


6Y,WIH

Bee TpH

,D,I1H:m:ylUHT'

asrpaacasouieiica
Jll100 paBHbIMl1,

MaTeMaTH'leCHl1MU 111160 CBH3aHHbI'1I1

MI1 ¢1100Ha"lf"ll1. ll;l1eHTaMH

1.618 HJlJ1 2,618 (KOTOpbIE HBJUlIOTCH '-IHCJIa.'\-iH, o6paTHhIMH K 0,618 Ii 0,382). 3TI1 COOTHOllleHIiH Hl\mY.JIhCHbLX BOJIH 06bl"-IHO npormJIHIDTCH B Ilpuu;eHTHbIX OTHOIUeHH.IIX. Hanpnxsep, BOJlHa I, paanopasraBaBIUaHCfl C 1932 no 1937 rO;:J;, nO,lJ,HHJIaCb na 371.6%, B TO BpeJl.1JI KaK BOJIH3 Ill. HMeBlliaH MeCTO C 1942 no 19661'0/'1;. ormanaci, na 971,7%. n n.rH1 II 2.618 paa Bhlille. YT06bI o6HapYlliHTb 3TO o'rrroruemre, He06xo.n:llMO Mt'nOJIh30HaTb 6011hlilHX CTeneHfIX nOJIYJIOrapm:pMU'leCK11ii apn:¢MeTlI'If'ChHH MacwTao. H.:oHe'iHO, MaCIlITaO na HeH npOU{,"HTHblH: Tal" '-ITO np11BOB

l_g
a

nepBOi1 80llHbI

ART K O.n;HHVI 11Te'1 me peaynsra-raxs. l'aJ-K.n;OM HMIIYjlbCe oOHapymlffiaIOT

paar-repsr

BOJIH B nyHKTa.X

TE llie

car-rete

COOTHOIUeHl-1fl

PMc.4-3

PMc.4-4

PMC 4-5

144

Bo.rmOBoM

nPlfHLU1n aJUlHOTfA

ThOElU 4 AHQJ1_U3 omHoweHull

145

BOJIHa B B pacurapetrnofi
II

ropH30HTaJ1hH0l1HOppeHlJ,MH mrorzta 6bIBaeT 'ITO IIO HpaHHeii Mepe,llBe


113

GLero psnnca].

B TO'IHOCTM Te :me OTIIOIllenUH CHOBa nOJlBJI.Jrn:Cb rra B

1.236 M::IH 1.382 nrrnanee BOJIHhIA. B -rpeyronsrmree Mhl o6Hapy:mMBaeM.

BOJIH. pa3}1.eJIeBHbIX O,lLHOH BOJIHOM,B THOH'IHOM cnyirae CmI3aHbI Me:a\fJ.YCOOOIT f{osq,q)ln~neHToM 0.1'318. ThHI1M 06pa30M. B CXOAJII.l.J,eMCJI. BOCBOJIHa e = 0.618c. BO.'1Hac;;;;:: KaR nORa3aHO

xonmneer
0.618a

H HMCxo,nHlI.\eM TpeyrO.'lhHllliax
HJIlJ BOJJHad

nnepx nrrn,rx BOJIHa.XB nepaozt C 1932 no 1937 ron (A-'IH CIIpaBHl1 eM. puc. 2-11 112-12). A. faMlLThTOH .6o.TITOH 1957 rozty B CBoeM nproroacemnr Ii Bank Credit B Analyst, nOCBHllI,eHHoM BOm-taM 3JVIllorra. ,ll;an TaKOH I.\eHOlIOHnpOI'H03, OCHOBaHHbrn na O:mI1,1laHI1HXI1IIl1'IHOrO noaeztenrra BOJJHhl: T
.ECJllI PblHORROHCOlII1JJ"upyeTC.H B Te'IeHl1e erne 3U Teh.)TIlHX ueHOBbIX ypoaaeit. .TIe1 960-x
TO.

npannemn-rx

= 0.618b.

na puc. 4-12. B paC1IlI1p.H-

router-rca rpeyronsnaxe HI\U1.

3TOT K03¢q:>HlJ,Hf'HTPaBf'H 1.618. B perncaxcny-

rozta llJll1.iJ;B~'X B6.1:I1STOIT03BOJJHT


11

<raxx coce,n:HH€'BOlIHhI MOryT 6hITb CB.fI3aHhl Tah.I1MH :me COOTHOllleHH-

Kal{ Hal\{ xaacerca,

nepBI1QHoI[ Bo.'1HeV JJ"OCT~ (,("HCarzylOHHhIXpeayrrsra'roa. HbIi1l1H.1l:eKC ,lJ;oy,lJ;:moHca..'1;0 1000 lUlH Donee'.

B era=ra-

raJ_OBJ(OSeCTHua BOJIHeaKTHBHOH ITOh"}'rlKI1 rrpoxu.nunen-

o
111111

3aTeM B pafiore nOlITOH 3aflBJIHeT:

The Elliott

Wave Principle

A Critical

Appraisal.

pa3MbIlllJJHH ITO IIOBOfJ.Ynproaepoa,

na rcoropsre

CChlJlaeTCH 8.'1JUIOTT,

"ECJIlIObl PblHOK C 1949 rona zto nacroaniero

MOMeHTa npanepaorC 1949 no 1956 6b1 aa-

A
PYle. 4-12

BaJICH3ToM q,0PM_YJIbJ. nozrsexr. nponorosaauncrca TO

fD}1.(361 IJYHRT npO\1bIWJIeHHOrO IIlI,L{eKCa ,lJ;oy-,ll,moHca)ohlJl neno 583 II)lHKTa (161.8% OT 361 nymrra],

I(OH"-IeH.xorna K lo,.1HHH'I,1}'MY 1957 rona B 416 nyHKTOB 6blno 6hI,Ilo6aBH.TIl B U;f'JIOM 999 rryHRTOB. 6bl 777

B .iJ;BOHHbIX TpOHHhIX KoppeKlJ,I1HX 'Il1CTOe paCCTO.HHHe. xoropoe H noxpsnsaerca B pasrxax O,ll;HOH npOCTOH:MO)leJrn:.l-l:HOTAa CBH3aHOC APY11JIH[ocofiemro ecrm oznra H3 '!"pOCKflBJI.HeTCH roii Mo,n:elIhlO paaencraora

B rrpOTHBHOM c.rysae 361 II}'HKT cucpx 416 npenycsrarpnaan


nyHKTOB npOl\IbIII1JJeHHOrOHH}1.eKCa !loy-nnmHca».

Iloazse, xorzia BOJITOH III1CaJ1 npurroncenne


1964 rona, OH ,ne.'1a.lJ anOH: BbIBO,n;: T

no aonnass

8nJJllOTTa

TpeyrOJIhHmWM) Roacp¢ffi\HeHTOM 0,618. 11, HaROHeI.\. BO.'1Ha4 ,ll;OBOJIbHO qaCTO IIOKpbIBaeT lJ,eHOBOH. AHana30H. paBHbIH mIll CmI3aHHblH OTHOUleHHeM ¢H60J-Ia'I'IH lOutf'li BOJlHO~i2. KaK H B cnyxae 06bJQHO npOHBlI.RKlTCH B npou;eHTHOM sracurraee. C COOTBeTCTB)'I1MnyJIbCHhIX BOlIH. 8TU OTHOlllCHl1fl

.nOCKOlIbK)' Tenepb Mbl ycneunro

rrpeononernr

ypoaens

777 nynx-

TOB. noxooxe, 'ITO HaIUeH cneztyrometr ueJIbIO CTaHeT OTMeTKa BlOOD". Ib,n:1966 nOK33aJI. 'ITO 3TH yreepmztenaa cxaaaaaesr JJ.fI6bllI aaperrrcrpnponan 6blJ1HCaJVIblM TO~I hlM npe 11H

B MCTOPHUq,OH,llOBOfDprsmca. KOTAa B rvraKcHM)'M B 995.82

3 'Iaca

AHfl 9 rpenpaaa

npHMeHeHHe

a:B8JIH38 OTHOllleHHH

rsa QaCOBOM rpadinxe HJII1MeKaK

(BnyrpI1il,HeBHbIH. MaKCHMyM Dbln panen HPCKOlIhKOlIeT nOCJ1e BbIOH B ne-

100 1.11). 13J\HM oopa30M.

8Jl.1lHOTT6bLTInepasns

113TeX. h"TOcnyera

XO.iJ;3 CBeT KIUlTH PH npWVIeHHJ1aHaJIH3 OTHOllleHI1H Ha nparcrnrce. B 3aMeTHlI, 'ITO H3MeHeHHe npOMblWJU'HHoro HH,n;eKca.lI.oy-,ll;llioHca

urecrr, JJf'f l1,0 aroro C06bITI1.HBolIToH ollmoeH aee ~le\1 ua oznry TpeTb npouesrra.

tra 3.18 nymcra.

HeCMOTPHHa;ITO 3aMe'YaTeJIhHOenpeztcxaaarrae, nOBOLlYnponopmronaru.nsrx JJ:eHUH artannaa oTHoruer-ufll


10 -4223

EOJITOHc=nrran,

p110.iJ; 1921 no 1926 ron, oXBaThlBaJOIIJ;IlH BOJIHbI c nepsoH: no TpeThlO. c COCTaBHJlO 61,8% OT paaraepa n.HTOHBOJIHbl, rrpozimrameficn C 1926 ITO 1928 rOA (1928 ron 6blJl. cornacno 8JIJlHOT'I)'. MCTMHHOHBepIllI1HOH: 6hI-

MMbI, ~lTu aHaJU13¢OPMbl BUJIHhI,n:OflmeHrrpenrnecraoaarr,

BbIBOJJ;aM: no

OTHOllleHlIiI . .lI.cHCTsHTenhHO. npn nponeQpC3BhIl.Jai1HOBaJHHOnOHlThlaTb H npnr-re-

146
HHTh

Bosnoeou

rlPHHlum

BJL'1UOTrA

[)rasa

4. AHQJlU3

omHoUJeHuii

147

<1.IVIHOTTOBCKI1j:'[ MeTO,n nO,uCl.JCTa Ii pa3MeTKH

BOJlH. (-!ToGh! liMeTl, 113Mepemm na

B03MomHOCTh

onpenemrrs.
OTHOIIIeHllll.

OT

KaKl1XTO'-leK
OTHOmemUI:

IIPOHO]lHTh

IIOPU;HOJlaJIhHl,IX HHX lfCTHHUbIX BbIB3JOTCH

A.ffi'IH.

OCHOBaHHl,Ie

npoYPOB-

aasepuremra
Hel1CTHHHhIX

MO,neJlf'11. BIlOJlHe HatlCJKHhJ: u;eHOBbIX ::n(CTpeM)'Max.

Te. '-lTO OCHOTahOBhlMI1

na

OOhI'lHO

He Oha3b1BaJOTCH. CaMH neUIHhTh1ll asTOPbI Tome HCIIO.Th3)7IOT aHa.'IH3 OTHoIIleHm"4.


Ii

xacro

yc-

pe3}'J1hTaTru.m.

A. )),m
B 'lac

(l)pO('"f

y5e,nI1.;ICR. B CBoell MHHU!l.tyM

cnoc06HOCTH

pacnoanasaru nonopormste
anca
B Oh'THOpe

TOtffiH. ero

nOHMaB

Ky6UHCKoro

HpH-

1962 rona
K TIle

B03HHKHOBeHHR.

Ou

OTOCJIaJI TeJJe-

rpaqXJM

CBOR BhIBO]];l,I B

B npHJIOmeHRH Me,.a;Bemhero

Ipeuaro rru.m ..IhTOH)' BoJITOH)'. 3aTeM B 1970 ro.uy ' Bank Credit Analyst OH onpeztenan, <ITo MHHHM)'M
}(OppeKUHH WIKJUI'-leC}(OH BOJl-

pbIHKa)J,.J1H pa3BHB8HJIUeHCH

RbI BepOHTHee ~1a

acero nOSlBHTCH HaypOBHC. KOTOPbIH oy.n;eT Hume MUJm1966 rO.IJ.a na eeJIYNHHy. pasnyto CHU1HeHHIO 1966 rona, ysmoacea-

0.618. HJIH rra OTMeTKe II 572 nyH}(T8. l.-IeTl,lpe rozta cnycrn tJ3COBOI1:rpaqnuc npoenaurneuaoro HHj(eKCa ,Qoy-)],moHca B ,lJ,eKa6pe 1974 rona zronrerr AO MJIHHM}':.1a D 572.20, IlOCJIe srero Ha'Ja.TICH B3PhIBHOll POCT 1975-976 ronon,
HOM}' Ha nphMeHeHHe

® - O.611l.0~ 2618'(2)
~,.'" 0;, OOl\OO3Y"_ST _''''YJbC; fA)18)IC) lI!J,O,Da3VWeeaET P"'"'" 9 paM""" 6oJ1ee I<P\'IlHOl< lOpIleIclll'M

anannaa oruomeuaa naer


CTeneHHX. P06PPT JIeToM

BruHHhle

pe3YJIbTaTl,I

11 H3

, II 1975

I 1111 1976

I,
PIofC.4-13

'II

I ~ill

I, III
1977

II

60JIee MeJlliHX

JVIH Merrill Lynch.


TH6pe I1CIlOJlb30BaJI

1976 rozta B or-rere. orry6m,uwBaHHoM Ilpeicrep onpeztenan pa3BlmaBI.I.Iy1OCH Tor.na


paCIIII1pmOlIUU1CJl Tpe)TOJIhHlU'. q'f06hl a B 01'-

1.JeTBepTYIO BOJIHy KaH pep;KHH

}(03cpCPHlll1eHT

1.618

,l.IJIH Tom.

onpeztemrre,
D03HHK-

'830

1.JTOomH,ll,aeMhm

MHlIllMV:'i BOCLMHMeCH<JHOli

Mo,ne:m

)lOJDf{eH

DEC.

ge.'ll,

na ypoane 922 rryHKTOB Aoy. MUHHMyM IIOHBHJICH cnyc-ra IIHTh Hena orraerxe 920.63 8 11 <[aCOB 11 HOHOpH • naa CTdpT nHTHBOJIHO80J\.1Y panna KOHI..I;a rona. B oKTH6pe 1977 rO,lJ,3. 3a IIJlTh MeCJll..I;eB ,0;0 C06hITHH. r-rr Ilpetcrep Bh!qI1CjIHJI 8CPOJITHhlH ypoaens ,lJ,JUlrJlaBHOrO ,Il;Ha 1978 rona Hal{ "744 H.'Ill HeCKOJIbKO HHlKC». I'Iepeor c ssapra 1978 rona 8 II <{aCOB Bbrn 3a¢mKCHpOBaH MHHUM)'1>I }loy POBHO na OT\1eTKe 740.30. B OT'-leTe. nOCJIe'_OBaBmeM cnycra ,!lBe He)le.JIH IlOCJIe AOCTWf\eHI1.R HH,.a;eKcoM CBOera ;.l,Ha. BHOBb nozrreepamanacs BruKHO("Tb YPOBHJI B 740 I1YHh'T08:
HVTh

IJAN. IFEB. I MAR. 1978

13Zl

1CJ 24102

740 OTMetJaCT rona B TO'lHOCTI1 panna ~'lllHe


• ... 06J1aCTh HIfMaJ311IerOCH

TOT MOMeHT. me KoppelUlHH

scero

ObI'll,erO

1977-1978 pblHKa (Bnyrncrax), nozr0,618. C


M8Tt'Ma10'

2.618A

79~79

~""
~

c 1974 no J976ro,n,

yMHOiReHHOH Ha

PMc.4-14

148
TWleCKOM

BOJJHOBotf nPHI-tI(Sm 3!lJlHOITA

Fnaea 4.
8BO-

AHaJl.U3

On1HOWeHUU

149

TO'-lKH 3peHl1H, Mbl MomeM yrsepactars. '-ITO 1022 - (1022 574) x 0.618 = 744 (nIDI. nCnO~11.3yH HC'THHH)'IO BeprlUmy 31 Ael\a6pH, 1005 - (1005 - 572) x 0.618 = 737). BO-HTOPbIX, OfiJlaC'Tb 740 OTMe'-lae'r T0"<lliY. B KOTOPOH xoppemmn 1977-1978 rozta POBHO B 2.618 paa LJ,..'UIHHee npezunecreytoutea rcoppemtaa 1975 rona, npO,ll;OJDRaBllICHcn C nlOJIfI no OKTH6pb, Tm~ '-ITO 1005 - (885 - 784) x 2,618 = 742. BCBH3bIBrui UC.:Jb C BH)'TpeHHUNrH £ITO ,'l;mlHa BMULl IWMTIOnelITaMH ClmmeHHH,

80020 27 J

-hb10 17 24

-Mer10

I
BAO·

"

-s-c
-E10

820·

TpeTbHX. Mbl

C B 2,618 paa 6o:Ibllle ;::vnUIbI BOJIHhI A, eCJIH J].HO BOJIHhI C npMXo,ll;HTCH na OThleTh-Y 746. Aame COOTHOllleHHH BOJIH, OTIvle'-leHHhle B or=rere arrpe.1JH 1977 rona, ysaaiaearo-r Ira oTMeTKY 740 KaK Ha nanoozree BepmITHhill ypoaeas paasopora. HTaK. npM TaKOM cre-remra 06cToHTe.rlhcTB noncner BOJIH 6e3ynpe'-lelI. B HaCT0mI.J:ee IJpeMH PblHOK. aepormro. CTaOHJIH3MpyeTCH. Ilocneztarrn npHeMJIeMLIM neneaoit ypoaens, eCJUf npUHHTh Te3HC 0 ll,HKo"lM<feCKOM CTeneUH 6bI'Ihero psnuca, JJ.oCTHrHYT 1 MapTa (740.30 nyHl\TOB). HMt:'Ho6HapymHl:JaCM. lIO npo TaKHe MOMeHThI 3.rurHOTT rOBOpHJI. '-lTD PblHOK "rI;OJI4KeH 3TO HJIH CJIO!>1aTh"». TpH

iv
780-

-BOO

-780

-700

v ~ i =.618iii
-7AO V

-720
I

npHHHTh 3AeCh

BOCnpOH3Be,lleHbI

rparpaxa

113 3TOrO

OT'-IeTa.

8TO

pUC.

4-

Pl-1c.4-15

13 (c ueKOTOpbIII-1lf
CTOLhle CTPYHTYPY OT

;J,onO.'lHHTeJIbHbIMI1

nOMeTKaJo.II1. 3aI1-IeHHIOIIl,111'<1H H'R-

4-14 H 4-15. Onu HJlJUOCTPI1PYJOT BO~"lHOByro nepna=mon AO MeJlb'-lafillleH CTeneUR. Aame .n;.J1H ;noif PaRHeM ,lJ,al'bl 740,30 K3mf'TCH TBf'P,lJ,O YCTaHOBJleHHhThI MHHIIlI.f)'MOM nepBI1'-IHOH BOJIHhI ,_;i, B IU1KJll1'-IeCKOH sonae V Ba)J\l-IOCTh ypOBHH B 740 n:yHl<TOB 6bI'la OTMe'-lel-ta 11 pansure. MHHl1 MyM 1974 rona B 572.20 rrymcra .'lemUT POBHO ira 423.60 JIYHKTa Hlillie mrrca 1966 rOM B 995.82 nYHI~Ta, a yponem, 740.30 HaxO,il,HTCfI rtpnMepHo na 261.80 nymcra mntce YPOBHH 1004.65. HBJ1H1OI:u:erOCH lfCTMHHOM aepnrmron 1976 rona. 06a 3Tl1 pacCToHHHH orcaaerearo'rca BhIpameHHH\1M OrHOIU{,I·mi1 <l>H6oHa'-l~lH. r-H Ilpercrep H noance oficyacnan yposens B 740 UY'HKTOB:
KOMMeHTapRn).

1974111975 roaax npotiou YPOBUfl 740 rryHKTOB B l\a1K,ll;OM 113 uanpancorrpoaoaertamrct, MOLlJ,HbIM )J,BHllCeHlleM prsnrtca: B 1978 ro,lly YPOBCHh B 740 nyHKTOB cocraercrayer nonrocpo-uroa JillHHll nonaep}KKH TpeH,Aa. SOllee Toro. BOJIHOBOM npHHQHII yraepmnaen '-ITO BCHRaH xoppexrrna na pblJ-Ine orpana-rena .n;HO'1 npeAhIJJYI.U:eM '-IeTBepToif BOJIHhI MeHLllleM erenean. O.n;HaKO xorzta uepaaa BOJIHa B llHTl1BOJIHOBOM nOC __ le,1l;OBaTeJILIIOCTM pacranyra, rpamnia fIOCJIe.Ll0'lOLlJ,eMxoppercJIeHI1M

UHlf =racro OKa3bIBaeTCH


n()C.'1e.n;OB3TeJIhHOCTI1. ,n;aBHI1t'I MHHI1MYM

,n;noM BTOPOH BO,IIHhI aTOH nflTHBo."lHOBOH:


CBeTe aTOll HOpMLI BO.'lHOBOro anamrsa Hena ypoane 740,30. 6hL1l YPOB-

1 MapTa,

B03HHKI.IIJtif

yponna B 740 rryHKTOB HMe11B npOIIL'IOM. B 1961 rom' BHYTPI1,'l;Ht:'BHOH IlI1K Aoy B 741.30 nyarcra COnpOBO:lK,ll;aJICH CaJI,.lhlM BhICOHHM OTHOIIIeIDIe:to.! lJ,eHa/npH6bL'1b (P/E) I:l H(,TOPIU1 psnrxa: B 1966 rO,I1,YBl-fyrplWieBHot'r MIllllfl1YM D 735.74 0603Ha<fHJI rconeu nepnoro arana naztenna K MH"Koue'-lHo,

ne

CJIY'-taMHO, qTQ BamUOCTh

er

,lJ,OKa3aTeJIbCTBa

HeM a~HTHOH OCTaHOBKH. Ilpoaepxa npOIlJJIblX 'JaCOBhlX ,IlaUHhIX. nanexaranrrsrx D \Vall Stree-t Journal. 06HapY:lKHBaeT, '-ITO ,AOCTHllienne 25 MapTa 1975 rona npOMbIIIlJleHHhIM I1H,'J;eKCOM AOy-,UllCoHca cnoero ,'J;Ha rra OTMeTKe B 740.30 aaaepunt-ro OTKaT BTOP0H: BOJIllbf». [Cxr, nproae-rarrae Ha puc. 4-1.'3.)

HH"IYMY uran

lJ,HKJIH'lecKoH ncero

BOJIHhI

IV Me,lI;Bemhero

pblHKa

[TO'-lK8.

0 rxrertra-

61.8%

l:Hl1mCHH.H

1~11KJ111'-lecl{Oi1B03IHbI

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1963. 1970.

3lfp(>RaHHH

B ,n;onOJIHeHHe K Tpa,lI;Hll,IIOHHbL\1 3JIJIJ10TTOBChTIJl,l r-H Flpeicrep Ha'IaJJ HC'(,JIenOBaTbMaTeMaTI1

MeTOAaM

nporno-

'1t:'eKHI:' cBoHCTBa

150

Bom

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151

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BpeMeHII 1.JHCJIaM, STOT Lynch.

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OH

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coziepaorr 11MCeT HeiL

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xparma

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a KOppeKTHBHble no,D;XO,ll; HeAaBHO

o'rtroureune

K pa3BOpa1.JHBaJOIIUIl\ICH '-ITO uporHo3HpyeMble Clm60HaY1.JI1,

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noxaacerca.
l.JTO

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ycrtex, I(OTOpOro MbI ,u;06lfJIHCh C nOMOrtpyrnx notiopo-rscn sa TaRl1e :Jti:e ,u;OCTII:Jti:eHH.H B IiCnOJIh30BaHillI aroro rroztxona. HaCROJIhKO MbI Mom:eM cY,IJ;lfTb. mun, Bo:nmBoll r npmnmn n03BOJI.HeT .n;eJlaTb nporaoasr C TaROH
MhI Ha,neeMCH, 8JlJll10TTa, B/WXHOB11T TO'lHOCTblO. KoHeqHO, II Hac nOCTHTaJIH He.ll:OCTaTKII Hey.il,a1.JJ1, HO, 1(aJ{ Obi TO HI1 ObL'IO, BOJIHOBOrO MbI l.J)lBCTByeYl, qTO J1Kl6ble

rrozrxczta

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nporunoea 6bLlUI CHJIbHO npeyaenaxensr II 'ITO RorAa OiI{H,AaHI1H OTHOCHTeJIbHO punnea He OnpaB)lhIBaJOTC.fI. Bom-IOBOlt npIIHl-lHTI 3a6narOBpeMeHHO npezryrrpeacnaer aHaJIHTIIHa H ztaer eM)' B03MO:iKHOCTb Hbl6paTh CJIe.lJY1OIl\11ii
MOM)' Hruf60JIee BepOHTHbIH

Harrpnraep. eCJIl1 B03BpaT nepan-raon BOJIHbI ~ na 0,618 nepBl1~IHOH: BO:IHhl (1' ,D,aeT HeRoTopYJO uerrs II Bee pasncax Iwa¢qlH!-lIIeHT 1.618 ,IJ;..'IH BOJIHbI (A) npOMf'jK)'T01.JHOH CTt'neHM B nenpaanm.noir «oppexmra naer T)' me caMYIO nens ,D,JlHnpoMemyT01.JHOM BOJIHhI (C), a B ee paMKaX K03cp¢11UHeHT 1,00 nna MaJIOH BOJIHhI 1 CHOBa ztaer ry me uens nna MaJloH BOJIHbl 5. TOr,D,a y Hac eCTb MOW1Ih1R aprysterrr B IlOJTh3Y 'roro, "ITO CJIe.llYer o)Kl1,ll;aTb paaaopora Ha STOM sapaaee paCC1.JI1T3.HHOM ueHOBOM YPOBHe. Puc. 4·16 IIJIJllOCTpHpyeT 3TOT npnxrep .
(8)
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ca-

rrmcroaart, cnocoti ,lJ;ei1CTBlrn. Msr oOHapyamJIH, '"ITO aapanee onpeaerremrsre


phIHK}'

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B6.'ll1dH

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HbI

B TOl\,1 OTHOllleHII11.
BO.'1H

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noncner
rca, ECJIII rrysaere naerca
HblqallHO Havr60nee

rtpneranesr,
IIrHopl1pYeT 0 TOM. ypOBHR.

TO .n;OCTIIrHYTa

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T01.JBbI no-

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a rOT yponem,
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qaCTO

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cnenyrouiero
oxaastHa He

BhI1.JI1rJIt'HHoro

CJIe,iJ;YIOIIJ,I1i1 ypOBeHb 8TO MomeT Toro, ThKIIM

B nocrarosntoa BamHOH

crerrerraynanennsre.
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BO lVIHOTIlX 06croHTenhIIept'CMOTpeTb CBOH IIHTepII He Ha

craax

BbI 0Y.ll:eTe npOCTO

ceoenpexremro
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rrperamno.
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fiorree npl1BJIeRaTe.JlbHYIO
na
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C Henpl1HTHbIMII HHTepnpeTaI-lIIH "lTOObI

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ee

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= 0.618 x (1):
= 0,618
x@@:

MHOlKeCTBeHHLle He 3aOblBaHTe, ,ll;hl B('(,X CTeneHei1.

1'I0JIHOl'lhie OTHOlUeHH.R "'ITO na

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1973-1974

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60.'lee

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cHHmeHHH

rO;::J;OB 'ITO II 61.8%

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na psunce

rO;::J;Ollnoxptsrno

(8) = .236 (A) (C) = (A)

@=.3B2@

rrpezrsrztyutero pOCTa. npOI1CXOJIIIButero C AE'1\a6pH 1974 no cerrraops 1976 rona. Hecxrorps na rrOCTOflH Hhle nOJJ;TBepJR.ll.E'HHH BaJKHOCTI1 Ko:a¢¢m:W1eHTa 0.618, B nepsyro onepe,D;b Mbl,D;onlliHhI rtonararecn Ha ¢oPM)'. paCC~1aTpHBaH ananna OTHOrneHHH KaH CBI111eTeJIhCTBO. nozrraepacnaroruee Ii.lll onposeprarouiee TO. 'ITO MbI BI1,!UfM B xrozterrax H3MeHeHnH nen. B OTHOIIleH1fl1 anarrnsa OTB TOqHOCTH HoweHHH BO:lTOH COBeTOBa.

scerna ncnoru.aoaart, aaaoonee


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UHTepnpeTau;I1H

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noxa

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aa

(A) = (8) = (C); @. (A) = (C); :Il. (8) = 0.236 x (A).


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B
RaMI1

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C nOMOII.V>JO BOJIHOBOHe MeHee OR

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a He TBep-

na psmxe:
8JIeT 1929 HOH6ph 1928 1932 89 34 Mec~eB MeCHl..(a

¢aHTOB.

3mw

H npl1poJIhI.

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MhI

HenpeJIO)f(HhIM. OlJpeJIeJIeHHhIX

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orpOMHJlO

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¢HOOHaqql1 KJIIO'fCBOH

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MapT

C 6JIarOrOBf'HHbIM
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HO 6e3 y,LIHBJICHHH MLI o6HapyarnMCCTO C JIeKaOpH 1974 no 1110Jlh

'ITO JlO'l,beM.

1932-MapT

5 neT

154

BO.7HOR(Jfl rlPHHI-P

m aJlJIHUITA

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155
1965

MapT 1937 l\I3pT 1937 1929-1942

srapr 1938 anpens 1942

13 MeCJll\eB

CXO,[{JIaflCeplIJi HaqJIHaeTCJI CB03:'W»(HOHI1CTHHHo:i1 nepurmrsr rona


II

5 ner 13 ne-r
HeCKO.'Ib-

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TpeTbeH IJ;HKJIHqeCl<OH 80JlHbI Teh~e-

ro cyrreplzyn~JIa:
1965 1965 1965 1965 55JIeT 13JIeT 1966 21 ron ThKHM o6pa30M. 34 Mecm~a
OTHUlllE'Hill1 -t 21 -t

PwIap}l Paccen 21 HOfl6pH 1973 rona B Dow Theory Letterszian


EO )J,onOJll-lHTeJIhHbIX npnr-repos HpeMcHHblX nepnono»
naHl1QeCKHH MUHH\1j'M

1966 1967 1968 1970 1974 -

HOMI1HaJIbHaR BepIIIHHa HlliHHHR TOqK3 peaRU:KH IVlaRCIU1}'\1 pocra Hl1if(HRH TOqKa B pasncax

¢HGoHaqqJ1:

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1907

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1966 1966

DIaBHoe }lHO 1949 rona -

+8 + 13

AHa Me;:J;BeiKbero pbIHKa 9.2-roJJ:H<'lHoro lJ,H!UlOB

= =

1979 -l\U1HI1I\IYM
H

4.5-rOAH'·fHoro

peueccnn mrsapa

1987 -

SepOHTHblH: Ivfi1HHMyM cyrrepnuxrra

MI1HI1l\1)'M peneccna

rona

Bepumaa

1960 raJJ:a-

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nrrrepecrrsre B03MOlKHOCTIIB pa3BOpOTHblX TOqeK nporasnunemtoro HH,IJ;eHCa )J.Oy-,llJKOHlvIbI

MomeM npezicnaaarr,

ca B 6mI3KOM 6YII"VlUeM. 3TH B03>10}KHOCTHl1CCJleJlYlOTCH nanee B rnase 8.

B CBOeH.MOHorpa¢Hli 1968 rona. rrocnamesraoii BOJIHOBOMY npmruany ::JJI.IJfIOTTa. arnsrep E. Bai1T 3aKJIIOqaeT. QTO«inenyroutaa B Ba:lf<HaJI HrnHHHH -ro-nca MomeT 6bITb ,nOCTHrI-ryTa B 1970 rony-. B nozrraepacneHue sroro OH npI1BOJJ:HT CJle}10'lOrn;}'lO rrOCJIe}lOBaTeJ1hHOCTb ¢lH6oHaQq}1: 1949 + 21 = 1970; 1957 + 13 == 1970: 1962 + 8 = 1970: 1965 + 5 = 1970.
Maw 1970 rozia, l<OHe'lHO. OTMeTHJ1HYllKHlOlO TO~'Y HCU1oo11ee omeCTDqt>HHoro cnazta
3a

BOJITOH3al\1en·LII. qTO

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B

reo

1960 rO,ay. '-ITO, OCHOBbIBaHChna nOCJleJJ:OBaTeJIh-

HOCTli <!m6oHa .....m. 1962 I1JIH 1963 rOA AOJDKeH JJ:3TbBamH)'ID padBoPOTH}'lO TOqK}'. 1\.a.K Jl,ibl-renepi. 3HaeM. 1962 ron CTM CBI1,lJ;e renesr cansHethnero Me)J,BemberO phIl-IRa l1 MI1HI1M)'Ma nepBI1QHOH BOJIHbI @. ROTOpbui npernnecrnoaan

30 JIeT..B3HThle in toto. 3TI1 }l)1I.fTeJIbHOCTI1RamyTCH HCTHHHoro

60JIblllHM. QeM npocTo coarrazterraeea. BpeMeHHaH rrporpeccrer, HaQI1HaJOtu;aHCSI B03Mo~oro C MaHCl1M)'1Vla1928

aenpepr-ranoery

no,n:'he~1Y. lJll1BllleM)'cfI }

nOQTI1 <re11

TLIpe rona.
OTKpbIToe Pofiep'rora PH apexreunoe
l1eD,Be:ath111\1

rona

Ii HOMI1HaJlbHOrO MaHCHl\1)"Ma 1929

rona

nOCJ1e-

COOTHOIlIeHl1e Melli,Izy' 6bl'lliHM wrOT THn aHaJIH3a


BpeMeHHolI

znrero cynepmncia,
HOCTH ¢l1l6oHa"PlH: 1929 1929 1929 1929 1928 1928 1928

TaIDRe npI1BO,llHT K 3aMeQaTeJlbHOH nOCJIeAOBaTe'lb-

PblHI<a:'\1li,

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nOCJIe)J,oBaTeJIbHOCTl1. TaI<.JKe MOiKHOHCnO.1Jh30BaTbAJIH npOrH0311.pOBaHmi. II cBoen pafiore ;:J;.'IH Merrill Lynch

Pofiep'r Ilpercrep
OT 3124

3aMeTlL'I B Map-

+3 +5

1932 1934 1937 1942 "" 1949 -

JJ:HO Me,nBembero pbIHKa JJ:HO rcoppexrnra

Te 1978 rona, BOJIH (1). (2)

QTO .17 anperm


11

OTMeqaeT ,ll,eHb. Ror,lJ;anere.... 1931 PbIer PbIHO'lHbIX qaCOB 14 arrpena


11

HoqHbrn =rae CHlliKeHl1f1 A-B-C. If.'m 61.8% (3) ». nHTHHu;a MOAe.'llI «rrepeaepnyraa rOJIOBa

+8
+ 13
+ 21

aepunnra
,nH0

6bI<lbero pbIHKa

OTMeQeHa BepXHHM npofioexr

)lHO Me):I.BelKhero psunca Me,nBelKhero pbIHK3


rH1K

IL'leQI1>1 na rpaqnnce l1H,IJ.eKCOM ,D,oy-

.lJ,:moHca.B nOHe,Qe.1JbHllK.17 anperta. 6w,"! OTMeQeH B3PhIBHOH pOCT TOProaoro 06opOTa. KOTOPbrH)J.OCTur63.5 r..lHJI'IUmIa ahUHH (CM. puc. 1-18). XOTH na BTOT paa npOPK~I1SI He COOTBeTCTBUBaJIaJ\.IHHHMYMY.OHa ece :me OTMeQa'l::l TO'UILIH nem., xorzta npe,D;llleCTB}'lOlll,ee nCHXOJIOfHQeCROe A8.B!leHne MeAReAeii I1CQe3JIO pblHKa. C

+34
+ 55

L 962 L 983 -

JJ:HO rcpaxa BepoHTHbIH

cyrrepQIUUIa

156
TeopiUI BeHHepa

BOJIHOBOtl

TlPHHI~m

8JIJ1J10TT'A

OlaHCl

4. AHa.IlI.L"1 omHoweHlllI

157

('ITO

ue

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yqHTbIBaJI rraHHKH,

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t(OMMeHTMPYH

Beunep cnerran

Ha6.mo;:J;eHHe,

T. Beuaep 3aHH.'I1aJICR npOH3BO,ll.CTBOM l.J.yryHU, O.n;HaKO, OhlJ] pasopen B 1873 rony na BO "IHe qlJfHaHCOBOrO KpH3Hca, nOCJI!" .D;OBaBwero aa Ipam,D;aHCKOH BoiiHoH. OH CTaJI ¢epMepo~ B WTaTe Oraito II B rcaxecrae xo66H rrpenrrprnnm CTaTnCTH'leCKOe MCC;Ie)JiOBaHl1e u;eHoBblX
C3MIOan ,'J;BHmeHllM, Ul,HXCR

18J9, 1837, 1857 H 1873 rO;'J,bl 6blnMnam~eCKJL\m ro,n:aMM, H nOJ\a3aTI na csoe ....'naIIH'IeCJWM" 1 rpadnuce. 'lTO OHlot rrrpaacaror nOBTOp.RIOllzyIOC.R J',lO,'1;enh 16-18-20. xrro npHBO)lHT K HepaBHoMepHoii nepI10)lH'lHOCTM
9THX nOBTOpHlOIlIILXCH MeHa"ID, OR npHMeHIIJI COOhITlfH. MO,ll,eJil, XoTR K peQeCCHHlVl, MeHee H.-'H "llJIO:l\._~l

ape-

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B ITOBTOPmoHanl1Can KHI1-

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1875

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MlIelIllJO,

TaJGKe c3Ie.lJYlOT MO,ll,e.TI1116-18-

ry, oaarnasnemryto ·SKoHOMHl.J.eChl1e npopoxecraa 0YLl,YlU;llX B3.JIeTOB H na,p;eHHH uen». Ilpornoast, conepncanmeca B era IDmre, no OOJIhlIIeii =raCTl1 OCHOBaHbI rra mnorax I{eH sryryaa 11 na nOBTOpRel\lOCTH ¢HHaHcoBOH naHlIRM. Ilporrroasi Bennepa sa AonrlIe rozrst nOKa3aJIH CBOIO aar-re'laTe.rJhH}'lO TOquOCTb, a OB casr xarc CTaTIICTI1l{ II nporH03HCT CTR}f{aJI 3aBJI,n:HYID CJIaBy. .name cerozma rparpnxn Bennepa BhI3hIBaIOT HHTepec
HCCJle!lOB8TeJrCH l{IIKJIOB. l1 BpeMR OT BpeMeHl1 JlX MOmI-lO BCTPeTHTh B

ne-rarn. nnorna

6e3 )'l'a3aHHH 'ITO

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20, K3K H rnaumsre naannecxne MHHHMyrvlbI. npHMeHHB MOn;enh 16-1820 K 'lepe,.rzyroll\lfM{'..H MHHJI:\1),);laVfQ:loH.n;oBoro psrarca, MhI ITOJ]}"lII'l.1 TOLjHoe connazterme, 'lTOH I1JIJllocrpnpyer 14MK.lll14.ecKHi;J rpacpHK Besmepa-« <DHfioHa'I'IH (puc. 4-18), enepnsre ony6mlKOBaHHbIH B 1967 rOllS B npn'lomeHHII K Bank Credit Analyst. Ofiparwre BHUMaI-llie na TO, qTO nOCJ1f'J{HHM MOMeHTOM, xoma KOHqmrypllWm :qrJKJJa OKU3bIDa'laCb TOH me, LITO H Tenepb, 6hm nepaozi 1920- x ronon, II STO 6hIJ10 nocnezmee nOHK'l(,HHe nHTOH BOJIHbl 8nJIHOTTa LRlK.HII'leCIWH

Bennep

3aMeTllJI,

nO,D;beMbI

paxrxax
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noaropmorneirca neznme 75 rrer;

8-9-1
Ha'll1HaH

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Mbl npH_'IOmHM

Taxaa
CTBy

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ocuoasraarouiaaca
nna

na nzree Beanepa
arrazmn.

0 nOBTOpHeI\IO-

MO,iJ,eflb K MaI{CIIrvrYMaM

npOMbIIIIJIeHHOrO C

I1H;'l:eKca,l1,oy-,l1,moHca

38 noc-

CTl1 BpeMf'HHhLX pa3BopOTHhIX

pazroe

nepurmr
<pOl-mOBoro

COOTBeTC'TayeT6onbIIIMHCTOJIeTHR. -

cnezryronnre pe3YJIhTaThI. 8TH ,'J;aThI He .HB1lHIOTCR npOeKLRlHMH, OCHOBaHHbTMli na rrpornosax, caenaausix panee nCHHepOM, - OHM rrO;I}"-l8lOTCR B pesynsrare npnMeHeHllR Mo.n;eJIH nOBTOpeHl1H 8-9-10 K H('TOpI1QeCKHM ,D;aHHLIM.
rO,l1,8, TO rrOJl}"'lIIM

1902

TOlleK

punnca aroro

Bcerna

1111

6Y,lleT ,I1.aHHaH Mo.n;eJJh

orpaacaru
TO Hll

6YJJ,YUllle

MaJ{CHl\tyI\fbJ

<ITO )lPYTOH a He BOJ1COTJIa-

sonpoc.

nOMJIlVIO

ncero nponero,

8TO qmKCl1pOBaHHhIe A HaIllHX nonctcax

UHKJIbJ, npH'll-IHhI

HhI 8:L,~IIOTTa.

RaJ{ fihl

6hIJIO,

COBaHHOCTH TeopHH

Eennepa r- peananocrtsro
cooopaayerca

?ibI oOHapymlvllI,

"ITO OHa
{j)H60Ha'l"'UI

lOA
1902 1910 1919 1929 1937 1946 1956 1964 1973
B o'rnonremnr MeHl-lble

HHTepBaJI

MaxCHM}'Ml.1

Ha phlHKe

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ltMKIII1'1eCKMM
'"

C nocne,'J;OBaTeJIhHOCTbIO

8 9 10 8 9 10 8 9
HMfuHMX TO'leK

24 artperm 1902 rona 2 nnaapa 1910 rona 3 HORfipH 1919 rona 3 ceHTR6pH 1929 rozta 10 ~taPTa 1937 rona 29 MaR 1946 rona 6 anpena 1956 rOJJ;a 4 q>enpa.!IH 1964 rona 11 mraapn 1973 rona
3KOHOMMI<H

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0

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nOBT

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16·18·20,

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nOCJle,n,:OBaTe.n:hHOCTl1, nOJ~a3bIBaIOIIJ;JIe. H ,'J;enpeCCHH

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158

BOJIHOBott nPHHIU1n 3.1L7H077'A

ThOBQ 4 AHaJI_U3

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159

n TOM. BllJIOTb Hl1me.

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8-9-10

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l1.0

377, ,L(onycRaR

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B O)J,HH IIyHRT.

'ITO n ITOKa3aHO

... ocra aa nepcneKTMBbi pblHKa B paMKax BonHoBoro aHamt3ll B3rI1M"'P ~CJIa ClJHooHaqqu ITorpenmocTh

CeplDl 8-9-10

BLlopamn.le C}'MMhl

8 +9 +10 +8 +9 +10 ... +8 ... +8 ... +9 ... +10

= = = =

1965

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

35 54 89 143 233 378

34 55 89 144 233 377

+1
1000

~CTI1HHoe OKOH'-laHt.1el\I1K11a, A1lt.1BWer~

1942 rQJIa

-1

0 ·1 0 +1
OCHOBbIBaqeM Ha

900

-v
1_.
e-

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·8

700

Ham
lOIIJ;aRCH

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('OOTBf'TITByeT Y Hac

600

na

pa3JIHqHbIX

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BpeMeHHhIX

nepHOl1:ax,

nO('TOHHHO pe

nOBTOpRIOIIJ;ei1C.Jl

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nOCJle.l1.0BaTeJlhHOCTl1 C MeTOAoM

c:Dl160HaQql1.

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He fihIJIO He

pafiOThI

Bemrepa, B03MOHU·IO,
B npOlI1JIOM.

OH ,Il,ORa3a'I H1fl1 C

CBOIO nOJIe3HOCTb

aasrerumr. HO xorna npMMeH1L'Ic.H B coxeraKOH(B TO

aroro

nornroatsrvr aHaJIH30M 3.'lnI10TTa. A. tJ;m. $pOCT npl1MeHI1JI nemrnro Bennepa B KOHu,e 1964 rona, rcorna CAe.'laJI neaeporrrnoe
BpeMH)

rrpezicxasanne,

'ITO

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1'13 GOlwnoe

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creneH'"

Il}'HKTOB M('}KA_Y

npovsnunennoro
500
11

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1942 rnnoa,

1929-

BI1.llHMO, HaxoAI-fTCII H8 Hanpas.neHHOM BsepX 3W"3are. MOgBn", H8KIlOH Bsepx ~

600

nyHKTa..'I,IM B ROHlJ,e oTITpaB.'leHHUrU BOCnp0l13BO)J;HT

1974-

naxane

1975 rona. jJ,aJIee


K nl1chMY H cHa6-

CJJf')J,yeT TeReT ITl1ChMa, Hy

B TO BpeMH

CDPOCTOM I1tMWlbTO-

B C.

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rrpHMeQaHl1mflI

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npl1JIO)KeHHhli1

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DOCKOJIhK_Y nH(,bMO C060H emf'

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RaR ¢aRT,

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1960 ro.Qa

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upencxaaamre, ocnoasraaronteeca na

TeOpHI1

3.'1J1HOTTa,

a He RaK

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10 )lelca5pH 1964 rona r-H}' A r. B<mToH)' Bolton. Tremblay & Co. 1245 Wep6pYK-CTplIT 3ana)lHbIfr Moapeam, 25.
)l,oporoH ThMMHI

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He

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1983 rO,11,a,'l,OCTI-ITHeT BepXHeH napaJIJIem-t H naurea ~eJIeBO:H o6.'laCTH MelR,!Jy 2500 If 3000. ecJIH, KOHe'-IHO, He npoH30iI,n;eT P2/1HKa.'lbHOrO H3MeH('HUH B nnneace OnTOHbJX uen. DpeATlOJlaraa. "'-;ITO 1789 ron naer Ha'IaJIO cynepl.(llK.ny. BOJll-Ia (I) npenCTaB.rlReT coGaR COBepll1t'HHO OqeBM.il.H)'lO -nareprcy-. BOJIHa (II) .HHJlflf'TCfI roPH3(}HTaJIhI-:lOH n, D COOTHf'TCTBHH C rrpaBHJIOM -repenoeanaa, HCHO rrpe,lJ;CRadLIBaeT ¢op~ 3Hr3ara !filii 'rpeyronsnmca" AJUI BO~TIThI (1\.1.
HUH .lJ;Y'M2Th, '-ITO Ph1H0'-IHhII1

MaECmtyM

..

nt>J-J.

Ha pHC. 5·4l:SoJIRa (IV) noxaaaaa KaK3I1T.mr. BTO BpeMH KaK CTO~IKHapeHVIR aJ<TY3.J!bHhlX neu ::lTOI5bL'l 3HT3a1'. C TO'ltru 3peHWf uex, cxoppercrupollaHl-Ihrx no H}·u:lmRlU'IH. «TO 6hl.'l Tpe}TOflLllllli. xax CTalIO HCHO ronov no.:~mf' (eM. npHJIO)lteHl1e).

170

B0Jl1/0BOi!

IIPHHl.Ifm

9.TJ.'IH01TA

[)raBa

5. J10Jli?OCpO~HbLe

AOJLHbl

171

Bo.r1Ha(III) pacrrmyra
}-lOU J10311Wln ~eTBepToH

XOtJ;UVIbLX110;:J:BOJIH. RJllO~aR B

Mo:m:eT 6hITb nonenena na nHTh neotipaciuapnroumtica TpeyrO.ITbHI1K B TlllIH~BOJIHbI. BOJIHa (IV). HMeHlIJaR MeCTO C 1929 no 11J1f'nm BHYTpn 06JIaCTli l..J.eTBCpTOrr BOllAhI M<'Hblllf'H

1932 rozt,
e-reneHl1.

OKaH'Il1BaeTCR

1I::m6pruKeHl1e JUf33T

cynepu.J1K-'I11~eCKOH

Te,lbHbIII

(IV) na puc. 5-5 Gonee nOJJ.poGHo nOHa3bIBaeT crenernr, OTl\1eqarow;uH HdH60.'lee pa30pIIrcortnartc psraxa B HCTOpHll ClllA. ECJIU l1cC.1lellOaaTb Bonny ®
BOJIHbl TO ,'l,Hf'BHbl(, rpa¢HKI1 rcpax nOKaJhyr, 'ITO TpeTbff nOABOJIHa B ce6H ¢HHaHCOBbIH YOJm-crpMT

aroro
3aTeM

CHUllieHI1H.

BK.Tllo<meT

29 oh'T.H6pR 1929 rona. rrpnwreprro ua 50% BOJIROH ® .3HaMf'Hl1TOH HanpaBJIeHH0l1 BBepx ImppeKUI1H 1930 rona». KaK ee na3blBaeT PHqap.iI. Paccerr, Bo apeMfl 3TOi:f xoppemtannanre P06epT Pn IIOk
BOJIHa@6hlJIa

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il3JICfI

8M0l.\HfIM BOllHa

31lll;mI.
ynas

<D B KOHl.\e KOHl.\OB. ;:J:OCTMT.'Ia ceoero


11 rll1

psrno-moro

OllillBJIeHHH

11 3aKPbJ:I

CBOIl

rcopcrtcae

IIO-

)J;Ha na OTMeTKe

41.22.

npnxscpao paBHYJO JJ.JlI1Hf' BOJ1Hhl@. }'1>'lHOmeHl-IOH aa 1.382. OHa aanepumrra naziemre uerr aRlJ,UH na 89% (qUCJIO ¢lH6oHaq'm) 3a 3 rona [euie ozmo qHCJIO $H6oHa'l'lli). H CHOBa cnerryer OTMeTllTh. 'ITO 3mrnoTT ncerna paCCIVIaTpnBarI 1928
na 253
IlyHKTa.

ira

BCJlHl.Il1HY.

roz;

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BepIIIHH)'

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(III). rrpn TOM LITO HOMMHiliIhHhlll B 1929 fOJlY: B MO;:J:eJIHrrenpaauns-

-_---1 __

---i:'6

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o
C> C>

HOI:\: aepunnn-r. MLI o6Hapymlwll B TaROM EblBO;:J:(' HeCKoJibnO He)J,OCTaTKOB. TaK iKe xaic 11 Haprn,a KOJlJIHl-IJ, KOroPhIM cornacen C HaMH B TOM, 'ITO HCTlllil1bltl MaRCH"'1)'lV1 npI1XO.D;l1TCR rra 1929 ron, Bo-nepasrx. CHl1jl\eHHe. npo,'I,OJImaBIlleecH C 1929 no 1932 fO,U. HBJ'IHeTCfl npexpacnsrsr 06p33lJ,OM CHHmeHHH IIO TImy 3Mr33Ta 5-3-5. Aa.'Iee. e(,JIH BOJIHa (III)11.0CTMfJIa aepunnrsr B 1928 rozty, TO aomra (IV) .D;Oil1KHarrozrpaaysrenari, cpopMy. KOTOPaH He COOTBeTCTBYeT «npaBIIJ1hIIOMY BH,1ly" 3-3-5 ~'lH pacIIIHpeHHOl1: rop1130H ra'IbHOH KoppeKWIH. B pasrxax 3TOH UHTepllpeTaUHH BO.'IHa © C'IHIIIROM eemnca no cpaanenmo C BOJIHaMH (6) H ® 11 OKHHqBBaeTCH na CJli1llIROM 60JIhIIIOM paCCTOHHHI1 OT MHHBMYMa BOJIHLI a. )lpyf3JI npofinexra CHJl3aJ-Ia co ClJ1llIKOM 60.T1blllOH canon npeATIOJIaraelVWH
fJO.'IHhI

®. KOTopaH

OCTaeTCH Bl-ryrPI1

HanpasneHHoro

BBepx 'ITO

KaHaJIa.

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0

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TaK

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xax
B TPd11C 06 HCaHaJUI3e rona

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BLIBOA 8JIJlHOTTa TauHOH BepllIHHe.

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II Haw

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@ C HOH6pH 1928

172 1929

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1•382
paaa JlJIHH-

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173

no HOH6pb nee BO'lHbI

a B naurer-r aHaJll13E' BOJlHa C B c\IeCTOc ceHTH6pH

1929 rona no HOHOPb 1929 raga (0.382 HBJIHeTCH~mCJ10M,06paTHbrM 2.618).


MMeBlllen BOJIIIa na acnae

a.

(V) :;lTOrOomlbllloro

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(1) C TO'lKH 3peHHH HpeMEHH n npouerrrrroir

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1000

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M.

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500 400 300 200

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fA)

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l
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CY)

KaH,[[,UJIaTOMrra 'rarcoe 3BaHHe. )J,E'JIE'HIfe aTOM BOJIHbl cnenytouree:

I: 1932-1937_ 9Ta

HCROnOApa3Ae.JIHeT-

(,H na nRTb BOJIH B COOTBeTM'HHH C npaBI1Jla1\-1I1. ,Y(,TaHOBJIeHHbIMH 8JIJilIOTTOM_ OHa coaepuraer Ha npoxozurr B03BpaT na 0,618 pblHOGHOrO CHl1meHl1H C nyTH BOJIHCnepBOJIHa

1920 1924

1930

1936

1942

1948

IS54

1959

1965

1971

1977

MaK(,HM~'MOR 192811 1930 rOAOH, If H ee paxncax paCTHH}'T8H nHTaR BOJlpacCToIDIHe B 1,618 paa 60JIbIIIee ofinrero HOMno rpeTbIO. BOJIHB

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n. 1937-1942.
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B PaJVU«lXBOJIHbI II nO,llBOJIHa@npe;:I;CTaBmrTome

m: 1942-1965(6).

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K KOREe rnan-

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lihre OcofieHHoCTH TaKODbl; He <Z'

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174 4.
:=

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175
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1975(6}/"··! 1965{6) 1937 1974 __ fo~8


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