Demography

Dr Owais Raza
Lecturer
Department of Community Health Sciences
Ziauddin University
 Definition
Demography is the science of population and is
concerned with the size, distribution, structure,
and change of population.
 Definition
Demography is the science of population and is
concerned with the size, distribution, structure,
and change of population.

Size?
 Definition
Demography is the science of population and is
concerned with the size, distribution, structure,
and change of population.

Distribution?
 Definition
Demography is the science of population and is
concerned with the size, distribution, structure,
and change of population.

Structure?
 Definition
Demography is the science of population and is
concerned with the size, distribution, structure,
and change of population.

Change?
 Components of Population Growth
• Population growth rate (Growth Rate)
• Births (Fertility Rate)
• Deaths (Mortality Rate)
• Migration (Emigration/Immigration)
 Factors in Population Dynamics
• Natural increase
• Total increase
 Rate of Natural Increase
CBR – CDR
10

# Birth - # Deaths X 100%

MYP
 Rate of Natural Increase

If migration is taken as ‘zero’,

zero then:
+ ve RNI means Population growing
– ve RNI means Population declining
 Population Growth Rate
• Refers to the rate at which a given population is
increasing at a given period of time.

• It reflect the net difference between additions to the

population through births and immigration and losses
from deaths and emigration.

Pop Growth Rate = Birth rate – Death rate + Net migration

Birth rate – Death rate + (Immi - Emi)
 Doubling Time

It is the time taken by a population to get double

from its current status

Doubling Time = 70
Growth Rate
 Doubling Time
If Growth rate is 1%
population will double in 70 years

If Growth rate is 2%
population will double in 35 years

If Growth rate is 3%
population will double in 23.3 years
 Exercise
A town has a MYP of 15,000 in a year 2007. During the
year there were 405 births and 105 deaths. Net
migration remained zero.

Calculate:
CBR 27/1000 population
CDR 7/1000 population
RNI 2%
Doubling Time 3.5 years
 Fertility
• CBR
• GFR
• ASFR
• TFR

↑ fertility  population?
 Mortality
• CDR

↑ mortality  population?
 Demographic Transition
CBR

CDR

Phase Phase Phase Phase Phase

I II III IV V
 Demographic Transition
There are 5 stages: 3. Late Expanding Stage
1. High Stationary Stage – Deaths = ↓↓
– Deaths = ↑↑ – Births = ↓
– Births = ↑↑ – Population = ↑↑ due to
– Population = Stationary the momentum
2. Early Expanding Stage 4. Low Stationary Stage
– Deaths = ↓↓ – Deaths =↓↓
– Births = Same – Births =↓↓ (BR=DR)
– Population = Stable
– Population= ↑↑ rapidly
5. Declining Stage
– Births ↓ than Deaths
– Population = ↓↓
 Demographic Trap

• Expanding human demands within limits of

their ecosystem
• Human demand increases - the reserves
are consumed rapidly
• Human consumption is decreased as the
ecosystem collapses