Forecasting Template - Creates Monthly Forecasts with Seasonality and Trending

www.cortrapar.com Copyright 2002 Corporate Training Partners, Inc. traininginc@cortrapar.com

Definition - Seasonality: Ups and downs that occur on a 12-month cycle

Definition - Business Cycle: Ups and downs that occur on a more-than-one-year wavelength
Definition - Secular Trend: Upward or downward long-term trend line

Instructions: Enter historical data, in units or whole dollars, in the green user areas.
Enter the forecaster's opinion of current business-cycle conditions in the small green box.
Note: This template comes pre-loaded with demo data. To use, write over all existing demo data.

Functions of this template: 1) Template calculates seasonality and secular trend for the data.
2) Template combines user's business cycle opinion with calculated data
3) Template creates monthly and annual forecasts based on user's input.

Forecaster's Current-Condition Business Cycle Opinion Factor (Default = 100%):

Seasonality
5 Yrs Ago 4 Yrs Ago 3 Yrs Ago 2 Yrs Ago 1 Yr Ago Average: Factor:
Jan 5000 5100 5250 5150 5300 5160 99%
Feb 5100 5050 5300 5000 7000 5490 105%
Mar 5600 5300 5200 5400 5250 5350 103%
Apr 5400 5400 5450 5450 5500 5440 104%
May 6000 5330 5400 5500 5500 5546 107%
Jun 5700 5800 5700 5800 5750 5750 110%
Jul 3500 3500 3600 3700 3700 3600 69%
Aug 4500 4400 4450 4500 4550 4480 86%
Sep 3900 5150 5300 5500 6000 5170 99%
Oct 5500 5600 5400 5500 5500 5500 106%
Nov 5600 5500 5550 5500 5600 5550 107%
Dec 3000 5750 5725 5700 7000 5435 104%

Average 4900 5157 5194 5225 5554 5206

Annual Total 58800 61880 62325 62700 66650

Secular Secular Trend
Trend Factor
Factor 94% 99% 100% 100% 107% Prediction:
ality and Trending

nc@cortrapar.com

100%
Monthly
Forecasts:
5569
5926
5774
5872
5986
6206
3886
4835
5580
5936
5990
5866
Annual Total
Forecast:

67427

108%