Margaret P.

Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

Message Text

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 01 DACCA 05088 210850Z

12
ACTION NEA-07

INFO OCT-01 SS-14 ISO-00 EA-06 NSC-05 NSCE-00 INR-05

CIAE-00 PM-03 DODE-00 /041 W

--------------------- 062371
R 210550Z OCT 75
FM AMEMBASSY DACCA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8427
INFO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
AMEMBASSY COLOMBO
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY RANGOON
CINCPAC

C O N F I D E N T I A L DACCA 5088

LIMDIS

CINCPAC FOR POLAD

EO 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINT, PINS, BG
SUBJ: SOME CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE: UNHAPPY MPS, AND ARMED RESISTANCE

1. SUMMARY. AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVE TRANQUILITY, TWO

SEPARATE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE CREATED SOME APPRESHENSION ABOUT
THE GOVERNMENT'S STABILITY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE 1) THE
OPPOSITION TO MOSHTAQUE'S PRESIDENTIAL RULE VOICED BY SOME MPS
AT A MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT OCTOBER 16; AND 2) THE
SUCCESSFUL AMBUSH OF A SMALL MILITARY CONTINGENT BY AN
ARMED BAND ON AN ISLAND IN THE BRAHMAPUTRA FOUR DAYS
EARLIER. ALTHOUGH BOTH EVENTS HAVE CAUSED ANXIETY OVER
THE GOVERNMENT'S CONTROL, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT EITHER BY
ITSELF CONSTITUTES A SERIOUS PRESENT THREAT. END SUMMARY.

2. MOSHTAQUE'S SESSION WITH THE MPS OCTOBER 16 HAD BEEN

WELL-PUBLICIZED, AND WAS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CHANGES
CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 DACCA 05088 210850Z

WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT AND ENDORSEMENT BY MPS OF MOSHTAQUE'S

Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

 Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

ACTION TO DATE. NEITHER OCCURED. RATHER, DURING THE

SEVEN-HOUR SESSION, TWELVE MPS SPOKE CRITICALLY. THEY
REPORTEDLY TAXED MOSHTAQUE FOR NOT TAKING PARLIAMENT
INTO HIS CONFIDENCE AND PRESSED HIM TO REPEAL THE FOURTH

AMENDMENT TO THE CONSTITUTION AND RESTORE PARLIAMENTARY

DEMOCRACY NOW. SOME MPS ALSO COMPLAINED OF HARASSMENT UNDER
THE NEW REGIME AND OTHERS ASKED IF THE ASSASSINATIONS OF
MUJIB'S FAMILY HAD BEEN NECESSARY. TO THE DEMAND THAT THE
PRESENT PARLIAMENT BE RESTORED TO ITS FULL POWERS, MOSHTAQUE
SUPPOSEDLY TOLD MPS THAT THEY HAD NO REAL POSITION SINCE
BAKSAL HAD BEEN DISSOLVED, AND THAT HE COULD HAVE CHOSEN
TO DISOLVE PARLIAMENT. IF TONE MEANS ANYTHING, THE
SESSION WENT BADLY.

3. THE RECENT REPORTS OF AN ARMED CLASH ON AN ISLAND IN

NORTHEAST PABNA DISTRICT ALL CENTER ON QADAR "TIGER"
SIDDIQUI, WELL-REMEMBER "FREEDOM FRIGHTER", ERSTWHILE
GOVERNOR-DESIGNATE OF NEIGHBORING TANGAIL, AND SELF-STYLED
"FORTHSON" OF SHEIKH MUJIB. THE DEPUTY COMMISSIONER OF
TANGAIL HAS TOLD OUR BANGALEE POLITICAL ASSISTANT THAT A
BAND OF SIDDIQUI'S FOLLOWERS HAS SINCE THE COUP BEEN
OPERATING IN THE AREA. ON OCTOBER 12, THE MILITARY IN
TANGAIL WAS INFORMED THAT THE BAND--ESTIMATED BY OFFICIALS
AT 200 MEN--WAS HIDING ON A BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER ISLAND.
A TWO-PRONGED ATTACK WAS ORGANIZED, WITH ONE PLATOON TO
REACH THE ISLAND BY HELICOPTER AND ANOTHER BY BOAT. IN
FACT, THE INFORMER WAS A MEMBER OF THE BAND, WHICH HAD SET
A TRAP FOR THE MILITARY. THE HELICOPTER, ARRIVING FIRST
AT THE ISLAND, WAS MET BY CONCEALED FIRE, AND A CAPTAIN
AND TWO ENLISTED MEN WERE KILLED; THE HELICOPTER; DAMAGED
MANAGED TO WITHDRAW. THE WATERBORNE PARTY, LATE IN ARRIVING
BECAUSE OF POOR
RECONNAISSANCE, ALSO WITHDREW ALTHOUGH ARMED
COUNTRY BOATS ATTEMPTED TO ENCIRCLE IT. ACCORDING TO TWO
RELIABLE REPORTS, THE MILITARY IN TANGAIL HAS NOW BEEN
AUGMENTED CONSIDERABLY WITH TROOPS FROM PABNA AND MYMENSINGH
DISTRICTS; IT IS NOW ESTIMATED AT BATTALION STRENGTH.

4. COMMENT. THESE TWO SEPARATE DEVELOPMENTS, BOTH COMING

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 DACCA 05088 210850Z

AT THE END OF A HOLIDAY PERIOD OF RELATIVE SERENITY WHICH

BEGAN WITH MOSHTAQUE'S ANNOUNCEMENT OCTOBER 3 OF A RETURN IN
1977 TO PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY (DACCA 4860) HAVE CREATED UNEASINESS,
AND MANY FEAR THE GOVERNMENT'S STABILITY AND EFFECTINESS
MAY BE MORE APPARENT THAN REAL. IN THEMSELVES, HOWEVER,
THE EVENTS ILLUSTRATE TWO UNSURPRISING PROBLEMS CONFRONTING
THE REGIME IN BANGLADESH: HOW BEST TO ACCOMMODATE VARIOUS
POLITICAL INTERESTS, AND HOW TO DEAL WITH THE ENDEMIC

Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

 Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

CHALLENGES TO LAW AND ORDER.

5. THAT THE MEETING WITH THE MPS WOULD GO BADLY FROM

MOSHTAQUE'S POINT OF VIEW HAD BEEN PREDICTED BY SOME
OBSERVERS. THEY SAY THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS NEITHER THE
STANDING NOR THE CLOUT TO IMPOSE HIS VIEWS ON
HIS FORMER COLLEAGUES. SURVIVING LEADERS OF A DISCREDITED
PARTY, THE MPS ARE A FEARFUL LOT. THEY DEEM IT IMPERATIVE
THAT THEIR PRESTIGE AND POWER BE RESTORED IN ORDER TO
PROTECTTHEMSELVES FROM THE VARIETY OF THREATS TO PERSON
AND POSITION. NOT LEAST OF THEIR CONCERNS IS THE DESIRE
TO BUILD A RECORD AS FUNCTIONING PARLIAMENT IN ORDER TO
ATONE FOR THEIR PAST ACQUIESCENCE IN MUJIB'S DECISIONS AND
TO PROVIDE THEMSELVES WITH AMMUNITION AGAINST POLITICAL
OPPONENTS IN THE NEXT ELECTION. THERE ARE, HOWEVER,
COUNTERVAILING FORCES. MOSHTAQUE IS REPORTEDLY IN CONTACT
WITH OTHER POLITICAL ELEMENTS, BOTH TO THE LEFT AND THE
RIGHT OF THE OLD AWAMI LEAGUE. BY AND LARGE THESE POLITICIANS
WANT, NOT A REVIVAL OF THE AWAMI LEAGUE RULE, BUT A DISSOLUTION
OF THE PARLIAMENT AND A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT, POSSIBLY
WITH SOME ROLE FOR THEMSELVES. THUS, MOSHTAQUE IS IN A
PIVOTAL POSITION AND MAY BE ABLE TO BALANCE THESE POLITICAL
FORCES OR FALL BACK, IF REQUIRED, ON THE MILITARY. HOWEVER
RESTFUL THE MPS MAY BE, THERE APPEARS LITTLE THAT THEY
CAN DO, IN EFFECTIVE TERMS, TO OPPOSE HIM. HE MAY NOT HAVE
WIDE SUPPORT BUT HE STILL HAS THE POWER AND WOULD APPEAR
ABLE TO MAINTAIN HIS CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT.

6. DESPITE THE ANXIETY THEY HAVE GENERATED, THE TALES

FROM TANGAIL AND PABNA MUST LIKEWISE BE TREATED WITH
CARE. WHAT MAY BE AT WORK IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL BAND
OF DACOITS, PERHAPS PRESSED BY THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT'S
EFFORTS AGAINST ILLEGAL ARMS. IF TIGER SIDDUIQUI IS
CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 DACCA 05088 210850Z

INVOLVED, HIS MOTIVES MAY BE BASED ON SELF-PRESERVATION

AND HAVE ONLY A REMOTE POLITICAL COLORATION. MOREOVER,
BANGLADESH AUTHORITIES HAVE BEEN PLAGUED SINCE INDEPENDENCE
WITH ARMED ATTACKES BY SOMETIMES SIZEABLE BANDS OF MISCREANTS,
POLITICAL AND CRIMINAL. NEVERTHELESS, THE INCIDENT--WHICH
MAY NOT BE OVER--DEMOSTRATES THE FUNDAMENTAL WEAKNESS OF
THE GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO DEAL IN THE FUTURE WITH ANY
LARGER SCALE CHALLENGE TO ITS AUTHORITY. IN THIS INSTANCE,
IT IS THE ARMY WHICH COMES OUT LOOKING BAD--ILL PREPARED
IN INTELLEGNECE AND ORGANIZATION. IT HAS NOW RAISED ITS
STRENGTH AGAINST THE TANGAIL-PABNA BAND TO 1000, AND WILL
BE LOOKING FOR REVENGE.

7. SIDDIQUI'S ROLE IS, OF COURSE, THE MOST INTRIGUING ELEMENT.

WE HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT IF HE AND HIS FOLLOWERS ARE ACTING

Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

 Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

ON THEIR OWN, THEIR LACK OF POPULAR SUPPORT MEANS THAT OVER

TIME THEY WILL BE UNABLE TO RESIST EFFORTS TO BRING THEM
UNDER CONTROL. THE BIG QUESTION, THEEREFORE, IS WHETHER OR
NOT SIDDIQUI HAS EXTERNAL SUUPORT. MANY BANGALEES ARE CONVINCED
THAT THE INDIANS SUPPORT HIM; THAT HE FLED TO INDIA AFTER
AUGUST 15; AND THAT HE IS WORKING WITH THE INDIANS AGAINST
THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT. IF THIS WERE TRUE, THEN HIS
POTENTIAL FOR MISCHIEF WOULD BE FAR HIGHER, AND QUITE
OMINOUS.
BOSTER

CONFIDENTIAL

NNN

Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

 Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

Message Attributes
Automatic Decaptioning: Z
Capture Date: 01 JAN 1994
Channel Indicators: n/a
Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Concepts: POLITICAL STABILITY, PARAMILITARY FORCES, COMBAT OPERATIONS, OPPOSITION PARTIES
Control Number: n/a
Copy: SINGLE
Draft Date: 21 OCT 1975
Decaption Date: 28 MAY 2004
Decaption Note: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Action: RELEASED
Disposition Approved on Date:
Disposition Authority: greeneet
Disposition Case Number: n/a
Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW
Disposition Date: 28 MAY 2004
Disposition Event:
Disposition History: n/a
Disposition Reason:
Disposition Remarks:
Document Number: 1975DACCA05088
Document Source: CORE
Document Unique ID: 00
Drafter: n/a
Enclosure: n/a
Executive Order: GS
Errors: N/A
Film Number: D750364-1035
From: DACCA
Handling Restrictions: n/a
Image Path:
ISecure: 1
Legacy Key: link1975/newtext/t19751034/aaaabdxb.tel
Line Count: 179
Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM
Office: ACTION NEA
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Original Handling Restrictions: LIMDIS
Original Previous Classification: n/a
Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a
Page Count: 4
Previous Channel Indicators: n/a
Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Previous Handling Restrictions: LIMDIS
Reference: n/a
Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED
Review Authority: greeneet
Review Comment: n/a
Review Content Flags:
Review Date: 08 JUL 2003
Review Event:
Review Exemptions: n/a
Review History: RELEASED <08 JUL 2003 by KelleyW0>; APPROVED <12 NOV 2003 by greeneet>
Review Markings:

Margaret P. Grafeld
Declassified/Released
US Department of State
EO Systematic Review
06 JUL 2006

Review Media Identifier:

Review Referrals: n/a
Review Release Date: n/a
Review Release Event: n/a
Review Transfer Date:
Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a
Secure: OPEN
Status: NATIVE
Subject: SOME CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERE: UNHAPPY MPS, AND ARMED RESISTANCE
TAGS: PINT, PINS, BG
To: STATE
Type: TE
Markings: Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006

Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 06 JUL 2006