The Emerging Indian Investing Landcape Amitabh Singhi

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
The Emerging Indian Investing Landscape
The
Emerging
Indian
Investing
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Landscape 1
5000 Listed Companies
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Large Number of Listed Companies

Number of Listed Companies (2009)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
NASDAQ
TSX Group
Exchange
BME Spanish
Australian SE
London SE
Tokyo SE
Euronext
Hong Kong
Exchanges
Bombay SE
Exchanges
NYSE
Korea
OMX
Source: Bloomberg, Surefin Research (US)

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There Are Still Many Companies to Research
Source: Surefin Research

Smaller Companies are Ignored

16%
Average Foreign Instituional Holding (FII) Holding
13.8% 14.0%
14% 13.4%
12%
11.8%
10.0%
10%
FII Holding
Percentage
8%
6%
4.7%
4%
2%
0.1%
0%
< $10 $10 - $100 $100 - $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $1,000 $1,000 - > $10,000
$10,000
Source: Bloomberg, Surefin Research MCAP ($Mn)
Smaller Companies are Under-Researched

99.6%
100%
% Companies with No Analyst coverage
90%
83.2%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
34.2%
30%
20.8%
20%
12.7%
10% 7.1%
3.7%
0%
< $10 $10 - $100 $100 - $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $1,000 $1,000 - $10,000 > $10,000
Source: Bloomberg, Surefin Research Market Cap ($ Mn)
Opportunities Lie in Ignored Companies

# of Co’s 1332 850 68 30 14 11 1
99.6%
100% 16.0%
14.0%
90% 13.8%
83.2% 13.4% 14.0%
80%
11.8%
No. of Analysts Covering
12.0%
70%
10.0%
% holding by FII
10.0%
60%
50% 8.0%
40%
34.2% 6.0%
4.7%
30%
20.8% 4.0%
20%
12.7%
7.1% 2.0%
10%
3.7%
0.1%
0% 0.0%
< $10 $10 - $100 $100 - $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $1,000 $1,000 - $10,000 > $10,000
Market Cap (USD Mn)
% Companies with No Analyst coverage Average FII Holding 2010
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India Will Add $1 Trillion to its GDP in Five Years
Services 63% Manufacturing 20% Agriculture 17%

$Tn
Source: Broker Research
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Many Sectors are Large and Mature



Larsen & Toubro Investment Return

2600
2500
2400
2300 40x in 15 years
2200
2100
2000
CAGR of 29%
1900
1800
Share Price in Rs.
1700
1600
1500
53x in 10 years
1400
1300 CAGR of 50%
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
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3x since Jan 2008

Hero Honda Investment Return

2200
2100
15x in 10 years
2000
1900
1800
1700 CAGR of 32%
1600
1500
Share Price in Rs.
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
20/09/2001
12/06/02
03/03/03
15/11/2003
21/04/2005
05/01/06
25/09/2006
19/06/2007
03/03/08
28/11/2008
26/08/2009
24/05/2010
03/08/04
01/01/01
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Growth
[Growth Theme 1 Old]
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Growth
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Share Price in Rs.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
01/01/01
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20/09/2001
12/06/02
03/03/03
15/11/2003
15x in 10 years
CAGR of 32%
HDFC Investment Return
03/08/04
21/04/2005
05/01/06
25/09/2006
19/06/2007
03/03/08
28/11/2008
26/08/2009
24/05/2010
Growth
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Growth
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Growth
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Shriram Transport Finance Corp. Investment Return

850
800
200x in 10 years
750
700
650
CAGR of 70%
600
Share Price in Rs.
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
28/03/2008
05/10/01
02/07/02
26/03/2003
09/12/03
13/05/2005
31/01/2006
18/10/2006
11/07/07
23/12/2008
17/09/2009
15/06/2010
01/01/01
25/08/2004
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Cross Section of Past Investments

  Cigar Butt or Bargain Stocks
  Special Situations - Mergers, Spin-offs, De-mergers, De-listings, Buybacks, Public

Offering situations
  Contrarian or Prejudiced
  Growth at Reasonable Price
Balkrishna Industries
- Cheap Labor
- 1700 Different SKUs
- Global Distribution
All figures in Rs. / Kilogram
Particulars Balkrishna Global Peers
Realisation 160 200-210
Raw Material Cost 87 92-95

Manufacturing Cost 15 18-20
Manpower Cost 5 47-50
Marketing & Distribution Cost 16 20-25
Total Cost 123 175-185
EBIDTA 38 25
EBIDTA % 24% 10-12%
Source: Broker Research
Growth
Amitabh Singhi
amitabh.singhi@surefin.com
www.surefin.com
Off: +91-124-4066755/7
www. amritfunds.com
Mob: +91-9811791810
Public Markets in Many Sectors Have Exploded

300 284
MCAP 2010 (USD Bn) MCAP 2001 (USD Bn)
250
229
Market Cap (USD Bn)
200
155
145
150
117
100
77 77 71 64
46
50 33
24
10 14 8 9 15
5 3 3 1 2
0


The Emerging Indian Investing Landcape Amitabh Singhi

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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

The Emerging Indian Investing Landscape

5000 Listed Companies

Large Number of Listed Companies

Source: Bloomberg, Surefin Research (US)

There Are Still Many Companies to Research

Source: Surefin Research

Smaller Companies are Ignored

Smaller Companies are Under-Researched

Opportunities Lie in Ignored Companies

India Will Add $1 Trillion to its GDP in Five Years

Services 63% Manufacturing 20% Agriculture 17%

Source: Broker Research

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

Source: Surefin Research

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

Source: Surefin Research

Source: Surefin Research

Larsen & Toubro Investment Return

Source: Surefin Research

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

Source: Surefin Research

Hero Honda Investment Return

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

Source: Surefin Research

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

[Growth Theme 1 Old]

Shriram Transport Finance Corp. Investment Return

Many Sectors are Large and Mature

Source: Surefin Research

Cross Section of Past Investments

 Special Situations - Mergers, Spin-offs, De-mergers, De-listings, Buybacks, Public

 Growth at Reasonable Price

All figures in Rs. / Kilogram

Particulars Balkrishna Global Peers

Realisation 160 200-210

Raw Material Cost 87 92-95

Source: Broker Research

Public Markets in Many Sectors Have Exploded

Source: Surefin Research

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  Special Situations - Mergers, Spin-offs, De-mergers, De-listings, Buybacks, Public

  Growth at Reasonable Price