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GOVERNMENT

OF INDIA

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MINIS:1'.R.OF POWER

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CENTRAL ELECTRICITY

AUTHORITY

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REPORT
ON
SEVENTEENTH
ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY
OF
INDIA
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2003

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73

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(BROUGHT OUT IN FULFILMENT OF CEA'S OBLIGATIONS UNDER


SECTION 73(a) OF THE ELECTRICITY ACT 2003)
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MARCH,

2007

2007

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NEW DELHI

Central Electricity Authority

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RAKESH NATH

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& Ex ot{jdo

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FOREWORD

The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planning
to optimally utilize the scarce resources. The electrical energy being clean and the most
convenient form of energy, having preference over other forms of energy, is a vital input
for economic development of the country. The Electric Power Survey Committee
conducts surveys for the power demand and holds discussions with all the stakeholders
on regular basis and make demand forecast not only f,lr use in power sector planning but
in other sectors of economy, i.e., coal, rail, industry, etc.
Our country has been continuing to face power shortages in spite of appreciable
growth in generation. The demand for electrical energy is increasing at the faster rate and
shall continue to grow in tune with the projected growth of economy. The forecast of
electricity demand is done on short and long term basis using international methodologies
of time series analysis and end use method duly validated by the results obtained from
economic and electricity growth indicators. The short term electricity demand also
accounted for compensating the shortages in the assumed base year. The T&D loss
reduction programme was introduced in consultation with the State Electricity Rcgulatory
Commissions who furnish the plans of T&D loss reduction for IIth Plan. Wherever such
programme was not available for full period of IIth Plan extrapolated data has been
considered. The inter-regional diversity factor was also applied for peak demand for the
first time in view of the formation of a strong Nation:tl Grid during the I I th Plan.
The Rural-Urban division of the forecast of electricity consumption was also done
for the first time giving spl'cial importance to rural electrification and development in line
with National Electricity Policy. With all these features the utility of the document would
improve over previous editions of Electric Power Survey of India. The forecast of
electrical energy consumption and energy requirement prepared by the 17'h Electric
Power Survey Committee has projected growth rate of about 10% & 8% respectively for

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority"

~~'L~~

the period till 11th Plan end against the actual growth rate of less than 5% during 9th &
initial years of 10th Plan. The corresponding peak demand growth is 9% for period upto
II th Plan end against actual achievement of 5.3%.
The report of the 17th EPS unlike earlier EPS Reports has considered National
Electricity Policy for providing power to all by 2012. The various growth rates
considered have given higher weightage to the latest power consumption trend to capture
the technological changes and energy conservation efforts in all categories of electricity
consumption. T&D losses have been a concern for power sector since these have been
very high as compared with other countries. The present T&D losses including
unaccounted energy are about 30% and there is need to reduce these losses through
efficient management and the best operation & maintenance practices of the transmission
and distribution systems so that more energy is made available for actual consumption at
reduced costs. As per the T&D loss reduction programme proposed by the Utilities, these
are assumed to be brought down to about 22% by the end of 2011-12 and gradually
reducing to 16% by 2021-22.
The electricity demand projections are based on achieving higher energy
consumption and wiping of the energy deficit for sustaining 8-10% GDP growth, policy
issues and the present performance of the power sector. To achieve the load growth as per
projected demand is a challenging task for the power sector in general and Discoms in
particular to create necessary distribution network for planned growth in each sector of
electricity consumption. A strong transmission & distribution infrastructure would ensure
availability of reliable and quality power to spur the interests of industrial and
commercial sectors for achieving faster economic growth and planning large sized power
projects.
I hope that the results of the 17th EPS would serve useful guidelines for all State
Govts., utilities, developers, manufacturers and other stakeholders for advance planning
for their growth.

New Delhi
Dated the 30th March, 2007

(Rakesh Nath)

________________________________

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Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

~'

V.S. VERMA

MEMBER

(PLANNING)

Central Electricity Authority


& Ex officio Addition~i1
Secretary,
Gov!. of Jndi"

PREFACE
Electricity being clean and convenient source of energy plays a major role at
every stage of development of a nation. The Electricity Act 2003 entrusts CEA with a
function to prepare the National Electricity Plan for next five years and the
perspective plan for the next ten years. In order to complete the above task, it is
imperative to have the forecast of the electric load for the next 10-15 years period.
This would be the basis for preparation of the National Electricity Plan. The load
forecast also serves as a tool for future planning for capacity addition by various
utilities and other stakeholders. The industries get a good guideline to plan for future
growth dependhg on the availability of electricity. CEA has been regularly bringing
out the Electric Power Survey Reports for this purpose. 16th EPS is the latest in the
available series which gives the forecast till the year 2016- 17. The 17th Electric Power
Survey Committee was entrusted with the task of conducting 17th Electric Power
Survey of India by the Central Electricity Authority in November, 2003. The main
task of the Committee was to review the electricity demand projections in detail upto
2011-12 and to project the perspective demand upto 2021-22.
The eminent members of the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee are the
heads of SEBs, TransCos, Pvt. Licensees & Electricity Departments of States/UTs,
representatives of Central Ministries (Water Resources, Coal, Heavy Industries,
Power), DYC, PGCIL, BBMB, BEE & REC, Planning Commission & Railway
Board, economist from NCAER, Statistical Scientists from C.S.O. & I.S.I., expert
from The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and representatives of Associations of
Industries (Special Invitees). In the first meeting held in January, 2004, the members
of the Committee adopted the methodology of End Use Technique and Trend
Analysis for electricity demand forecasting.
Unlike before, this Committee had to face the challenge of accommodating the
new dimensions of economic measures. It had to take into account the various policy
decisions of the Govt in the power sector such as rural electrification and electricity to

; nh tiectric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

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all by 2012, achieving a GDP growth rate of about 9-10%, a minimum per capita
consumption of 1000 units / year etc. The key issues considered by the Committee
were energy shortage due to restrictions & unscheduled cuts, per capita availability to
be enhanced to 1000 units by year 2011-12, energy efficiency & conservation
measures, special impetus on rural electrification & irrigation, thrust to economically
weaker States & Regions (North Eastern Region). The rural-urban division was also
an important factor considered in this forecast. The fulfillment of electrification of all
rural households as per the provisions of National Electricity Policy and the
development of commercial and irrigation sector in rural areas shall result into
about 50% share in the total electricity consumption on all India basis during the
year 2011-12.
The Committee at its Regional Power Survey Offices started collection of data
on the basis of rural urban division and working of demand as per the approved
methodology. The Secretariat also interacted with the State Regulators for drawing up
the programme of reduction of T&D losses and expected load factors of the State(s).
The information of projected population was also collected from Registrar General of
India for determining the expected number of domestic customers on rural-urban
basis. The Secretariat also interacted intensively with Railway Board for finalization
of electricity requirement of railways traction.
It was observed that due to recession in the 8th and early 9th Plan Period, the
electricity sector had a very meager growth rate during these periods. It was, however,
decided to match the energy growth with that of the GDP keeping the electricity ratio
between GDP growth and electrical energy growth optimistic. The preliminary
forecast thus reconstructed, was reviewed in the 2nd meeting of the EPS. Most of the
States except very few responded appreciably. The forecast were again reviewed in
the 3rd meeting of the Committee in August, 2006. The Committee had suggested that
the shortages in electrical energy and peak load may be compensated in the assumed
base year of the forecast and have a uniform growth rate to achieve the final targets
derived. The result of the compensated forecast has been graphically represented for
the first time in this report.
At one stage the Committee felt that the results of the forecast may be tested by
adopting Multivariate Econometric Model. A Sub-Committee of Experts was
constituted for the purpose. An expert in the field was appointed for preparing the
background paper for the Expert Sub-Committee. The base paper was submitted by
the expert.

'~~~~"Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

;\1'

The main components of the Report are as follows:


1.

Methodology of forecasting of electricity demand.

2.

Summary of short term & long term forecast.

3.

Forecast of electricity consumption category wise year wise rural-urbanwise, electricity requirement, peak load, T&D Loss and load factor on All
India, Regional and StatefUT basis for short term in tabular form.

4.

StatefUT wise sheets depicting pattern of electricity utilization, electricity


consumption category wise year wise rural-urban wise, electricity
requirement, peak demand, T&D loss and load factor for short term.

5.

Forecast of electricity consumption, electricity requirement and peak


electric demand, T&D loss and electric load factor on All India, Regional
and StatefUT basis for long term beyond 20 I 1-12 in tabular form.

6.

All India, regional and State/UT wise annuaVplan wise growth rates of
electricity requirement, electricity consumption, peak electric load for
short and long term.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to all the Members of the 17th Electric
Power Survey Committee for their able guidance and whole-hearted co-operation and
constructive suggestions made during the deliberations of the Committee. The
Committee is deeply indebted to the representatives of the State Electricity Boards
and other Utilitiesl Organizations for their co-operations in finalization of the report. I
would also like to place on record the valuable support given to me by Shri R.C.
Nakul, Chief Engineer, Shri Ashok Kumar, Director and Shri S. Biswas, & Shri B.C.
Mallick, Deputy Directors, CEA and other officials associated in this exercise.

New Delhi
30th March, 2007

(V.S. Verma)
Member (Planning), CEA
Ex Officio Additional Secretary, Govt. of India &
Chairman, 17th Electric Power Survey Committee

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Centra! Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power SUlvey

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
With the unbundling of various utilities, the number of entities which supplied the data increased
and the coordination between various Discoms, generation companies and planning agencies became
more and more complex which resulted in prolonged interaction and finalisation of the electrical energy
forecast. The data bank used for preparation of the forecast mostly pertained to 8th & 9th Plan. The data
supplied by some of the States particularly Eastern and North Eastern States had been inconsistent. This
required lot of efforts to derive the real indicators of growth in these regions.
This report is a result of intensive interaction with the representatives of the utilities who through
various deliberations gave valuable suggestions.
Sh.V.S.Verma, Member (Planning) CEA and the
th
Chairman of the 17 EPS Committee has been the guiding force in adopting various strategies for
formation of this report. Shri Rakesh Nath, Chairperson, CEA took keen interest in the preparation of the
report and had been regularly giving useful suggestions for improving the contents of the report. The
report was also discussed in Planning Commission with Hon'ble Member (Energy) Dr.Kirit S. Parikh and
Sh.Surya P. Sethi, Principal Advisor(Energy) and others who gave valuable suggestions which were
extremely useful for refining the forecast. There had been interaction with MOP and other formations of
th
CEA who have guided on various aspects of the 17 Electric Power Survey Forecast.
The framework of the 17th EPS was prepared by Shri V.B.Gupta, the then Chief Engineer, DMLF
Division who has superannuated during the course of preparation of the report, and Shri Ashok Kumar,
Director. The final report is the out come of the hard work done by various officers of CEA in Planning
Wing. The credit for the report is also to be shared with the family members of the officers who devoted
their holidays and late night hours for bringing out the report. It is not possible to include the names of all
who made exceptional contribution particularly the assistance provided by the PAs, Stenos, clerical staff
and peons of the Planning Wing of CEA.
The study required complex analysis of different issues and the contributions made by the officers
and officials of the Electric Power Survey Group in the Central Electricity Authority are worthy of
appreciation. Any omission and error is responsibility of the Secretariat of the EPS.
The specific contribution by the following officers of CEA is appreciated and acknowledged with
thanks.
Sh. Ashok Kumar

Director

Discussion & overall supervision.

Sh. Saumen Biswas

Deputy Director

Eastern and North Fastern Regions and


A&N Islands.

Sh. H.C. Mallick

Deputy Director

Southern & Western Regie!1.

Sh. R.K. Goel

Deputy Director

General & Administrati'/e support.

Sh. Hardayal Singh

Assistant Director

General & Administrative support.

Sh. Sovaran Singh

Assistant Director

Northern & Western Region.

17th Electric Power SUNey

Central Electricity Authority

Sh. Y. P. Kohli

Assistant Director

Sh. R.K. Arora


Smt. Santosh Golani
Smt. Pushpa Gulati
Smt. Shalu Sharma

Personal Assistant
Personal Assistant
Personal Assistant
Stenographer

Sh. Ishwar Chander


Sh. P.S. Yadav
Sh. Ramesh Chander

V.D.C.
V.D.C.
Peon

Sh. S. C. Maheshwari
Sh. B. Gupta
Sh. D.K. Meena
Smt. Suman Bala

Deputy Director
Assistant Director - I
Assistant Director - II
Assistaut Director-II

,~~~

Correspondence & coordination.

Stenographic and Secretarial Assistance.

Other official support.

Collection & validation of


basic data of the constituents
of Northern Region

Cl'i,Wvey Office, Mumbai


Sh.
Sh.
Sh.
Sh.

O.P.
A.P.
D.B.
A.c.

Singh
Puranik
Bisht
Suresh

Sh.
Sh.
Sh.
Sh.
Sh.

T.Rajender Reddy,
C. Venkata Subbaiah
A.Bose,
Thomas K. Chako
A Kesavan

Collection & validation of


basic data of the constituents
of Western Region

Deputy Director (promoted)}


Deputy Director
Assistant Director - II
Assistant Director - II

Deputy Director(Retired)
Deputy Director
Assistant Director-I
Assistant Director - I
Assistant Director - II

Collection & validation of


basic data of the constituents
of Southern Region

Regional Power Survey Office, Kolkata


Sh. S.K. Bhattacharya
Sh.S.K. Deb
Sh. P.N. Sarkar
Sh. P.K. De

Deputy Director
Assistant Director-I
Assistant Director - II
Assistant Director-II

Collection & validation of


basic data of the constituents
ofER & NER.

(R.C. NAKVL)
Chief Engineer (DMLF) & Member Secretary
17th Electric Power Survey Committee

New Delhi
Dated the 30lh March, 2007

~-------------_.<.""~.~.~-----_
..,~-------------------10

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

"'"

ADF-IR
ADF-IS
AELF
AI
APEL
CAGR
CEA
EEC
EER
EM
EPS
ER
EPSC
GDP
GWh
GW
HT
IEP
kW
LT
MkWhlMU
MW
NER
NR
PEUM
REDB
RPSO
SCM
SR
TDL
TWh
U
UT
WR

~:'f3(~.
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==
==

Note: Read 'UTTARAKHAND'

Annual Diversity Factor - Inter Regional


Annual Diversity Factor - Inter State
Annual Electric Load Factor
All India
Annual Peak Electric Load
Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Central Electricity Authority
Electrical Energy Consumption
Electlical Energy Requirement
Econometric Model
Electric Power Survey
Eastern Region/Energy Requirement
Electric Power Survey Committee
Gross Domestic Product
Giga (==109)Watt Hour
Giga (==109)Watt
High Tension (High Voltage)
Integrated Energy Policy
Kilo Watt
Low Tension (Low Voltage)
Million Kilo Watt HourlMillion Unit
Mega Watt
North Eastern Region
North Region
Partial End Use Method
Rural Electrification Distribution Backbone
Regional Power Survey Office
Shortage Compensation Method
Southern Region
Transmission & Distribution Loss
12
Tera (==10 ) Watt Hour
Utilities
Union Territory
WeEtern Region
in place of 'UTTARANCHAL'.

]1

INDEX OF CONTENTS

Central Electricity Authority

W19'1;Ij:

I71!1 Electric Power Survey

INDEX OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION
Foreword
Pr'Pjilce

0--------

PAGE NO.
3
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f __

__

oo

CHAPTER-II

___

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1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6

Aims & Ohjectives


Definitions
Methodology
Assumptions

23

-n26

-- --

27
_____

29
---------

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3I
40

SUMMARY AND REVrEW


2.1 Electricity Forecast Digest
2.2 Energy Demand and the Peak Load Demand
-

aIlcfStiteIUT-\Vlsc

n_n

I-Charts

2.2A, 2.2B
. Charts 2.3A, 2.3B
---------------~
Charts 2.4A, 2.4B
Charts 2.5A, 2.5B
Charts 2.6A, 2.6B
Charts 2.7A, 2.7B to
Charts 2.41A, 2.41B:

0_

_____

45
46

Electrical Energy Requirement

48

L()ad-------

49 --

Vision heyond 20] 1-12

tb\T:t~~h~,TfB---~~~lnfn~~an~:e~~:c~:qa,~i~:%

Forccas(~--------------- -- -------

Taj)je-2.2~-------- -A1Clndw-and-Si"taUrw{se-Forccast:-Peak
2.3

---

25

~---~-_._-----------------~------

All India

-------

-----------------

~oo

no

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY


---------~
1.0 Background
1.1 Econometric Modelling of the
Demand Forecast
1:2 The StatisticslI5aia--n--------~-------------

f-----

- -9

(//1(r;\--;-:;vnV/~l~--~-------------- - ----- - - -ff--

CHAPTER-I

A~.knoJ17edgeill~ril----------~-n----------no-----

~-~---

Abbrel!iaf{rJlls

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SO

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Northern Region: Energy Requil"".rn_e~and _1'''.ak...Q''.manl.!_


-_-_-:~~~_Western Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand
58
~-~Southem Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand --tiff Eastern Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand
62
North Eastem Region: Energy Requirement and
64
Peak Demand
----------f-----_--Energy Requirement and Pcak Demand:
66
Chandigarh,
Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,
Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,
Uttaranchal,
Goa, Gujarat. Madhya Pradesh,
Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Dadra & Nagar Haveli,
Daman & Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala,
Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Bihar, J!larkhand, Orissa,
West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam.
Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura,
Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
-

15

__

__

__

__

17th Efectric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

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CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION

Chart
Chart
Charts
Charts
2.43.5
Charts
Charts
2.44.35

Review of Forecast (PEUM)


All India Scene
Review of Forecast (PEUM): Regional Scene
Northern Region, Western Region, Southern Region,
Eastern Region, North Eastern Region
Review of Forecast (PEUM): State/UT wise scene
Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal
Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal,
Chandigarh, Goa, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh,
Madhya
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Oadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman
& Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu,
Pondicherry, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal,
Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya,
Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Andaman & Nicobar
Islands, Lakshadweep
Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actua1s and
Forecast of Energy Requirement
Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals &
Forecast of Peak Load
Review of Forecast for Rural

2.42
2.42.]
2.43
2.43.1 to
2.44
2.44.] to

Chart 2.45
-~

Chart 2.46
-~

Chart 2.47

"..1<',"

PAGE NO

136
136
137
137
142
142

177
178
179

CHAPTER-III
Table 3.]
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 3.4
Table 3.5
Table 3.6
Table 3.7
Table 3.8

SHORT TERM FORECAST


~f)fe~on
Category-wise Forecast upto 20]]-]2 (l'EUM)
0--All India - Summary of categorywise forecast,
pattern of utilization of electrical energy
Northern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast,
pattem of utilization of electrical energy
Western Region - Summary of categorywise forecast,
pattern of utilization of electrical energy
Southern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast,
pattem of utilization of electrical energy
-f--Ea~tern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast,
pattern of utilization of electrical energy
-I---North-Eastern Region - Summary of categorywise
forecast, pattem of utilization of electrical energy
----Islands - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of
utilization of electrical energy
All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy
Requir,-,ment ar Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)
(2003-04 to 2011-12)

]6

183
]84
185
J86
187
188
189
190-

--

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION

Table 3.<)

]9]
All India and State/UT wise Peak Electric
Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)
(2003-04 to 2011-12)
-~----192
All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy
Consumption (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-]2)
-----All India and State/UT wise Transmission & Distributi()n
193
(Utilities)
(2003-04
to
2011-12)
Losses
-All India and State/IJT wise Annual Electric Load Factor
194
(Utilities) (2003-04 to 201l-12)
195
All India and Stale/UT wise Electrical Energy
Consumption-Tota]-Rural (Utilities) (2003-04 to 20] ]-12)
All India and State/UT Wise Electrical Energy
I 196
Consumption- Total - Urban (Utilities)
(2003-04 to 2011-l2)
-~ _.~--~
Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption
upto 2011-12 (PEUM)
..

PAGE NO.

-~

T:lWe3.10

Table 3.11
Table 3.]2

~M

Table 3.13

'=--~Tab!~ 3.14

-.

Table 3.]5

r-------~
Table 3.16

All India and State/UT wise electrical energy


consumption
consumers
_.
__~~ ___- ~domestic
___ .u_____
~_ ___
All India ,md State/UT wise electrical energy
M

consumption

- cOlnn1crcia]

________

_____

197

.~-_._.-

__

198

COnSUITICrS

~,-.~---.----u.--u---~-----------.--...-----]99
All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
consumption - public lighting
-~--~-1----All India-and StateiUTwise'electrica] energy _.u_._.
200
Table 3.]tl
consumption - public water works
--- -.------------ ._-.---_.
-All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
201
Table 3.19
consumption - irrigation ~ pump sets/ state tube wells/
irrigation schemes
--_._~'fable 3.20
All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
202
consumption - LT industries
..
20J
_Table 3.21u_u __ ~ All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
consumption - HT industries
-- -------204
Table 3.22
All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
consumption - railway traction
------All India and Statc/UT wise electrical energy
205
Tabfe'3.23
consumption - non-industrial consumers (HT bulk supply)
----All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
"n
/1'ablC'3:f4- -~
206
consumption - Domestic - Rural (Utilities)
2003-04
to 20]] -12
L____
~_
--

__

__

____

._.

___

Table 3.17

..

I~'"

-~

--

-.

17

-----~_.-

Central Electricity Authorjty

17th Electric Power SUivey

.. ~~
'-/---;
,'t--,

--

CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION

Table 3.25

All India and StatelUT wise electlical energy


consumption - Commercial - Rural (Utilities)
2003-04 to 2011-12
All India and State/UT wise electrical energy
consumption - Irrigation - Rural (Utilities)
2003-04 to 2011-12
All India and StatelUT wise electrical energy
consumption - Others - Rural (Utilities)
2003-04 to 2011-12

Table 3.26

Table 3.27

CHAPTER-IV

=-,
Table

4.1
Table 4...!

---

Table 4.3
- -~-- ----------

Table 4.4
--

Table 4.5
Table 4.6
---~------------Table 4.7
---------------Table 4.8
------Table 4.9
Table 4.10
Table 4.11
---------------Table 4.12
--.~~--

Table 4.13
~-------

Table 4.14
Table 4.15

STATEWISE

PAGE NO.

207

208
-~

209--

-~

FORECAST

Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption and


Electricity Demand Forecast upto 2011-12 (PEUM)
Delhi: Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities)
213
--- -----Haryana : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
214
Himachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast
215
(Utilities)
.- f------

Jammu & Kashmir:


(Utilities)

Summary of category wise forecast

216
f--------

Punjah: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)


1-------~_.Rajasthan: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)-Uttar Pradesh : Summary of categOlY wise forecast
(Utilities)

--

217
218
219

f-- ----

~-----

Uttaranchal : Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities)


Chandigarh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Goa : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)

220
22]

Gujarat

223
224

--

: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)

Madhya Pradesh
(Utilities)

: Summary of category wise forecast

Chhattisgarh : Summary of category wise forecast


(Utilities)
Maharashtra : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Daman & Diu: Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)

--

222

225
--

---226

227

-------------------------------------18

'",~~~i,(-'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

';':'

CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION

Table 4.16

Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Summary of category wise


forecast (Utilities)
Andhra Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Kerala : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Karnataka : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Tamil Nadu : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Pondicherry: Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Bihar: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
West Bengal : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Jharkhand : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Orissa: Summary of category wise forecast (UtiJities)
Sikkim: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Assam: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
.
'Arunachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)
Manipur: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Meghalaya: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Mizoram: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Nagaland: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Tripura : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
Andaman & Nicobar : Summary of category wise
forecast (Utilities)
Lakshadweep : Summary of category wise forecast
(Utilities)

--

Table 4.17
Table 4.18
Table 4.19
Table 4.20
Table 4.21
~.

Table 4.22
Table 4.23
---_._-.-

Table
Table
Table
(..Table
Table
---.--

4.24
4.25
4.26
4.27
4.28

Table 4.29
Table 4.30

----.-

L-Table4.31
Table 4.32
Table 4.33
Table 4.34
-

Table 4.35
CHAPTER - V
Table 5.1
-

Table 5.2

PAGE NO.

LONG TERM FORECAST

229
230
231
232

233
234
235

236
237
238
239
240

--._--

24]
--242
243
244
245
246
'-'--

247

-- /-.---

Tables on Long Term Forecast of Electricity Demand


All India & Regional Summary of Long Tenn
Forecast (Utilities)
State wise Long term forecast at Power Station
Bus Bars (UtiJities)

19

228

---

251
252

,'lih Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER

DESCRIPTION

Table 5.3

Long term forecast


Electrical
Consumption (Utilities)

-,-----------

------

----

PAGE NO.

Energy

253

------------

Table 5.4

& Distribution

Long term forecast


Losses (Utilities)

Transmission

Long term forecast


Factor (Utilities)

Annual Electric Load

254
--

-----------

Table 55

-----

255

~~~~E~~~VI_~
~~~:'~~lt::~E=kctr:i~)-I)~~l~~
~_j
(Utilities)=_

Table 6.1

AIJ India and StatelUT Wise - Growth in


electrical energy requirement at power station
hus bar~ (2003-04 to 201 1-12) (Utilities)
--------------------------

----------

Table 6.2

259
----

All Indw and StatelUT wIse - Growth in peak electric


load at power stations bus bars (2003-04 to 2011-12)
(Utilities)

260

All India and StatelUT wise - Growth in total


electrical energy consumption (2003-04 to 2011-12)

261

---- -------r----------------------------r---.

Table 6.3

__________
111ble 6.4

-------

--_
262

------1-----------------------

-'

Annexure

- I

-----

-------

I Aml~xu~e

- II

IAnnc;u-re

':::1"----

C - VI

"

267

--

--

T;;-h1~;;_n-Growth-i~clfconsumption
out of captive Generation

Long-Run
---

Electricity

269

of electricity--

(2003-04

demand

to 2011-12)

Forecast

----------

---~--------

Comparison of ForeCaSts of Ail India Elcctric~ll Energy


Requirement Using PEUMfSCM, IE? and EM

________________ ~
20

71-J

-i

upt" year

Demand

------

on

Usmg ECOf:ometnc Model


---~--

of Seventeenth

2'O~~-~2Jor
DV.s:

r .4.,,;';,a;,.(,- -- 'Il-

Office Order regarding constitution


Electric Power Survey Committee

Forecast of electricity

i\'

Order regarding constitution of Expert Committee


Econometric Model FOIecast
__

'.nlICXIHC

263

Long Term Forecast


Compounded Annual Growth
Rates of Electrical Energy Consumption (Utilities)
_u

I Annexul

J.LJtilities_)
----Long Term Forecast : Compounded Annual Growth Rates
of Electrical Energy Requirement and Peak Electric
Load (Utilities)

Tallie 6.5

I~--

J
I
J,

272

273

'I

----,
2gX

CHAPTER-I

"_~~w
J*'~
'.*,i".

17th Electric Power SUlVey

Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER - I

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY


1.0

BACKGROUND

The 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee was constituted by the Central Electricity
Authority on 24th November, 2003 with the concurrence of the Ministry of Power. A copy of the
Office Order setting up the Committee is placed as Annexure-I. The ternlS of reference of the
Committee were as under:
(i)

To forecast year-wise electricity demand for cach State, Union Tcrritory, Region and All
India in detail up-to the end of 11thPlan i.e. year 2011-2012.

(ii)

To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12'h and 13th Five
Year Plans i.e. year 2016-2017 and 2021-2022.

The Committee held its first meeting on 14thJanuary, 2004 and discussed the methodology
to be adoptcd for forecasting the electricity demand on short term (5-7 years) and long timc
frames and the 'proformae' to be used for collecting data from the State Transmission Utilities or
Electricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the 35 States/Union Territories. Based on the
vicws expressed by the members of the Committec, it was decided that thc Partial End Use
Methodology (PEUM) described in the Section-5 of this report would used for conducting 17th
Electric Power Survey of India to work out electricity demand forecast and that the profornlae
circulatcd in the] ,t meeting would be used for collecting data.
The 2nd mecting of the Committee was held on 26th August, 2005 wherein the draft report
of the Committee proposing forecast of electricity demand upto the year 2011-12 for utility
systems was discussed and a decision was taken that the members of the Committee would
furnish their detailcd observations on thc content of the draft report within a fortnight. The
observations and views of the members of the Committee & State Electricity Regulatory
Commissions were incorporated in the forecast of the concerned States / Union Territories and
the revised forecast(s) were sent to the concerned State Transmission Utilities or Electricity
Departments or Electricity Boards of the States / UTs. The forecast of electricity demand were
revised further for certain States / UTs after holding discussions or on the basis of written
conll1lunication.

The 3'd & final meeting of the Committee was held on 23'd August, 2006 wherein the
revised draft report of the Committee circulated as agenda was deliberated upon as per following
record-notes of the meeting:

23

17th Electric Power Survey

(i)

Central Electricity Authority,:&lf~~? ;

'~;:{'~'itt'

A presentation was made by the Member-Secretary of the Committee on various aspects


affecting electricity demand. During the presentation it was expressed that short term
electricity demand in terms of electrical energy requirement and annual peak electric load
had been done by making compensation for the shortages experienced on All India,
Regional and State/UT levels during the year 2004-05.
The exercise of the electrical energy forecast under Partial End Use Method has been done
on the basis of electrical energy consumption by various categories/sections of energy
consumers for the short tenn period upto year 2011-12. The electricity shortages have been
assessed for the HT industry through data collection from over 1000 industrial units where
it was observed that the reported power cuts causing production loss were less than 1%
apart from the notified peak load restrictions to enable the industries to reschedule the
production plan for optimal utilization.
The transmission and distribution losses in various States/UTs are very high. The National
Electricity Policy lays stress on reduction of the losses to international level. Transmission
& Distribution losses at present arc of the order of 30% on All India basis and vary from
19-45% for major States. These losses arc to be brought down through adoption of various
O&M practices, energy conservation, renovation & modernization of the Transmission &
Distribution system and surveillance of unauthorized electrical energy consumption. Based
on an exercise canied out in consultation with Regulatory Commissions and the Electricity
Boards/State Power Utilities, the All India T&D Loss worked out to 22% at the end of 11th
Plan. Serious efforts would need to be made by various transmission and distribution
utilities to bring down the T&D losses to bclow 22% at the end of 1 Ith Plan.

(ii)

The demand projections made by the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee by partial end
use method were discussed with representatives of the States/UTs. Some states desired that
forecast for their States be improved based on the per capita electricity consumption of
1000 units as spelt out in the National Electricity Policy. It was explained that the per
capita consumption figure appearing in the National Electricity Policy was the national
average and cannot be applied to any particular State as such to work out the demand
figures. The demand projections worked out were already optimistic. Some of the members
also expressed that non-achievable targets may not be projected and they should be in line
with the future developments.

(iii) The draft report/presentation given in the 3'd meeting contained the year wise pcak demand
and energy requirement for the each y~ar upto 2011-2012, for All India and the various
Regions by compensating shortages in the base year (2004-05). Representatives from
States desired that the year wise peak demand and energy requirement demand be
incorporated State/UT wise also.

ChaplL'f]

In']

'(!iJ;.:r;;lli

8: \lethudolog-y

24

/$Ia",
'~:'4~f"
Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

(iv) The electricity demand forecast has been made on optimistic consideration so as to achievc
and sustain GDP growth rates of 8-10% during the 11th Plan period. Infrastructure in
transmission and distribution net work for various categories of electricity consumption
would, accordingly, need to be developed at a rapid pace in close co-ordination with stake
holders. It was also decided that the achievements of the infrastructure and the electricity
load growth would be reviewed after two years of the submission of the report so that
necessary initiative could be taken up for meeting the desired growth rate in the electricity
consumption in various sectors. The electricity demand projections would also be reviewed
for the StateslUTs which actually achieve high growth rates in the electricity demand.
The various points discussed in the meeting have been reviewed and incorporated in the
final forecast based on the specific requirement of various StateslUTs at respective Annexures
and Tables.
1.1

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE DEMAND FORECAST

To fulfill the requirements of the National Electricity Policy, an Expert Committee of 11


members was constituted vide letter dated 31.03.05(Annexure-I1) to forecast demand using
econometric model considering demand influencing factors for which economic indicators shall
be available and taking into account the projected growth rates of different sectors of economy.
Prof. D.N. Rao, the Head of the Department, Centrc for Economic Studies and Planning.
School of Social Sciences, Jawahar Lal Nehm University, New Delhi was appointed as a
Resource Person to undertake the job of preparing base paper for 17th EPS using econometric
model. Prof. Rao made a presentation before the Expert Committee on 12th September, 20U6.
The projections made by Econometric Modelling which were found on lower side were revised
by Prof. Rao and a revised report was submitted incorporating various observations made hy
members. Thesc were further deliberated in a meeting taken by Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Member
(Energy), Planning Commission. The other members of the Committee also participated. Still
there were gaps in the projections made by Econometric Modelling. The projections were at
lower side. It was found that the gaps were mainly due to the following reasons:
(i)

The Time series data of electricity consumption used for establishing correlation tt)!
econometric model did not include consumption in industries out of captive generation.
therefore, leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards.

(ii)

The indices have been considered for the period when the electricity growth as well as the
GDP growth were low.

The comparison of three sets of forecast, i.e., PEUM, Econometric Model and as made in the
RepOlt on Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006) of the Planning Commission are given at

25

Chapter J . Introduction & Mcthodoloc;\

17th Electric Power

SUNey

Central Electricity AuthoritY::;.~~,~:f

Annexure- VI of this Report. It was decided that the report of the 17'h Electric Power Survey
Committee be released after including a comparative statcment showing gaps and the reasons for
gaps between the three sets of energy forecast on All India basis. It was also felt that a separate
study be conducted from an expert regarding forccast of electricity demand using multi-variatc
econometric model by the Authority and the results revised.
The report furnished by the Resource Person on Econometric
Annexure- V.
1.2

Model is enclosed at

THE STATISTICS/DATA

The Annual Electricity Statistics covering category-wise ultimate consumption of


clectrical cncrgy, availability of clectrical energy, Transmission & Distribution losses, mid-year
population of persons, category-wise connectcd electric load, number of consumers, number of
electrified villages, number of energized irrigation pump sets, aggregate capacity of in'igation
pump sets, etc. are furnished by thc Utilities / Licensees / Electricity Departments / Electricity
Supplying Cooperative Societies of the States / Union Territories to the Central Electricity
Authority for bringing out annual publication titled "General Review - All India Electricity
Statistics". The statistics of the past 10-15 years as published in the General Reviews have been
used for creation of data base for 17th Elecliic Power Survey of India.
Various additional information such as T&D losses, irrigation pump scts encrgisation
programme, Railway Traction consumption, etc. were collected by the Secretariat of the 17th
Elcctric Powcr Survey Committce from the State Transmission Utilities, Electricity Departments
or Electricity Boards of the States/UTs vide the proformae approved by the Committee in respect
of rural & urban areas separately for the period w.e.f 1997-98 to 2011-12 which included thc
information rcgarding electricity demand asscssment for electricity distribution licensecs.
The programme of reducing transmission & distribution losses and also improvement of
annual electric load factor due to implementation of Demand Side Management, advance
techniques of electric load management & differential tariff for peak and off-peak period upto
the year 2021-22 was collected by thc Sccretariat of the 17th EPSC from State Electricity
Regulatory Commissions.
Monthly statements of power supply position brought out by Grid Management Division
of CEA werc referred for actual clectrical energy requirement & availability, peak electricity
demand & peak met and Inter-State & Inter-Regional Diversity Factors for the past.
Railway Board/Ministry of Railways supplied the State/UT wise data of electricity
demand for railway traction for the period upto 2011-12 based on their programme for railway
track electrification and expansion.

Chapter

I . Introductioll & Methodology

26

Jil;@~t

ji~~'f'Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Annual reports brought out by Regional Power Committees were consulted for load
curves and Inter-State Diversity Factors. The annual data regarding electricity demand,
consumption & captive generation and production in respect of more than 4000 HT
Industries(Existing & prospective) with electricity demand of I MW and above, was collected,
examined and compiled for individual industries on annual basis by the four Regional Powcr
Survey Offices of CEA for the purpose of using the same in forecasting exercises.
Region-wise and State/UT wise data-base was created and updated by the f(llIr Regional
Power Survey Offices of the Central Electricity Authority located at New Delhi, Mumbai,
Bangalore and Kolkata with an objective to complete preliminary exercises for forecasting of the
electricity demand.
1.3

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The primary objective of the electrical energy forecast is to assess the electricity demand
for States/UTs so that the States/UTs are able to plan and arrange the electrical energy to meet
demand in full and provide electricity connections to all applicants. The States would thus draw
the strategy to install their own generation capacity for availability of electricity and enter into
power purchase agreements with the surplus States/Generating Companies. The EPS forecast
makes projections of the aggregate power demand over the year and also detailed forecast for
various categories of electricity consumption; so that the utilities arc able to plan suitable
infrastructure for transmission & distribution of eleCl1icity. The demand forecast for various
categories of consumption would facilitate States to identify priority sectors and develop
optimum infrastructure within the limited resources. The electricity demand forecast also works
as a tool for planning the Demand Side Management (DSM) strategy on long term basis for
optimizing the peak demand and also plan long term tariff policy.
The 17th Electric Power Survey of India encompasses various features for fulfilling aims
and objectives of the National/State Policies framed by the Govcrnment(s) in their policy
documents and guidelines. Some of the important objectives of policy arc described below:
The National Electricity Policy notified by the Govl. of India lays down followint:
objectives and due consideration has been given to these while formulating the electricity
demand forecast:
(i)

Access to electricity: Available for all house-holds in next five years

(ii)

Availability of power: Demand to be fully met by 2012. Energy and peuking shortages to
be overcome and adequate spinning reserve (at least 5%) to be available.

(iii)

Per capita availability of electricity to be increased to over) 000 units by 2012.

(iv)

Minimum consumption of I unit per house hold per day as a merit gtJod by year 2012.

27

Chapter

I : Inlroductioll

& Meth()d()l()~_\

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,:,~~~W,


'i'-""c,,-J/

.':

tv)

An action plan for reduction of losses with adequate investments and suitable
improvement in governance should be drawn up by State Electricity Regulatory
Commissions so as to bring these in line with International practices by year 2012-

(vi)

In order to reduce the requirement for capacity addition, the difference between electrical
demand during peak periods and off peak periods would have to be reduccd. Suit3ble
load management technique should be adopted for this purpose. Differential tariff
structure for peak and off peak supply and metering arrangements should be conducive to
load management objectives. Regulatory Commissions should ensure adherence to
energy efficiency standards by utilities.

(vii)

The State Governments would prepare a five year plan with annual mile stone to bring
down transmission and distribution losses expeditiously.

(viii)

In agriculture sector, the pump sets and water delivery system engineered for high
efficicncy would be promoted. In the industrial sector, energy efficient tcchnologics
should be used and energy audits carried out to indicate scope for energy conscrvation
measures. Motors and drive systems arc the major source of high consumption in
agricultural and industrial sector. Energy efficient lighting technologies should also be
adopted in industries, commcrcial & domestic establishments.

(ix)

Reliable rural electrification system will aim at creating


Distribution Backbone (REDB).

(x)

High voltage distribution system is an effective method for reduction of technical losses,
prevention of theft, improvcd voltage profile & better consumer service. It should be
promoted to rcduce LT/HT ratio keeping in view the techno-economic consideration.

the Rural Electrification

The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for reduction of transmission &
distribution losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilities/ Electricity Departments/ Licensees. The
guidelines state that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between ]O-l 5 % in
di fferent States taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in the
transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment and
meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its spatial
jlllisdiction, nature of loads, etc. The guidelines quote that according to a study carried out by
Electric Power Research Institute(USA), the losses of various elements of T&D system are a,;
pel"below:
Step-up transformers and EHV transmission system.
Transformation to intermediate voltage level, transmission system & step
down to suh-trdI1Smission voltage level.
Sub-transmission system and stcp-down to distribution voltage level.
--

(d)

to

3.0

2.25 to 4.5

-----.-----------.----

I J)iS.'l~ib..~liO~I.'es and service connections.

,, =:1 Tot~!},osses
('harter

1.5

I . Introduction

& Methodology

4.0 to 7.0

28

$~",

17th Electric Power Survey

I;:\!~;;:~~'"
Central Electricity Authority

However, in the demand forecasting exercise, the T &0 loss for each State ha~. been
decided in consultation with the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions or State Power
Utilities.
Many States/UTs confirmed that the Governments had announced new industrial policy to
promote and boost industrialization at already existing and new up-coming Special Economic
Zones & Industrial Estates.
1.4

DEFINITIONS

1.4.1

Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC)

ERC of a system is aggregate of annual electrical energy consumptions of all categories of


llitimate consumers as metered at the premises of ultimate consumers connected to that system.
1.4.2

Electrical Energy Requirement (EER)

Electrical energy requirement of a power system is the sum of annual electrical energy
consumption by all categories of the ultimate consumers and the Transmission & Distribution
losscs in the system during supply of elcctlicity to these consumcrs. The EER would also be
equal to tou!l electrical energy generation plus import of electrical energy from outside the
system minus the auxiliaries energy requirement of the power stations and export of electrical
energy outside the system. The Energy Requirement are depicted in the block diagram below:

L
Consumer End

Generation End

\Vhen, R = Glcctrical energy requirement of a power system at power station bus-bars

29

Chapter

I . Introduction & ?\Ielhodolog"\

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,-,~'1!!~_,


:,-"'.j'-,--<-<:-;p-

-r

= Gross electricity generation


= Electricity consumption in auxiliaries of Power Stations as metered
I = Electrical energy imports from other Systcms/States/UTs
E = Electrical energy exports to the other Systems/States/UTs
C = Total electricity consumption at consumer end
L = Losses during transmission & distribution of electrical energy
G
A

at bus

1.4.3 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELF)


Annual Electric Load Factor is the ratio of the aggregate electrical energy requiremcnt
during the year to the electrical encrgy that would hc rcquircd if thc annual peak clectric load is
incident through out the year.
(Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh) x 10S
Annual Electric Load Factor (%) = -----------------------(Annual Peak Electric Load in MW) x Hours in a year (8760)
1.4.4 Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL)
Annual Peak Electric Load of a power system, as used herein, is the maximum
simultaneous electric load of the system which occurs during the fiscal year as measured by
actnal deliveries at generating station bus and/or bulk sources. It would thus be equal to
maximum of coincident power generation within thc system plus import of power from outsidc
thc system less demand of auxiliary systems of power stations and expol1 of power outside the
system during a fiscal year. Some of the States/UT have isolated gcneration from Rencwable
Energy Sources and Mini/Micro hydro power stations which arc not connected to the grid and
accordingly the peak electric loads indicated in the report are the sum of non-coincidental peak
electric loads of the individual systems and thc grid system. Regional peak ekctric load as used
herein is the simultaneous peak electric load of the Region after applying suitable Inter-State
Annual Diversity Factor (ADF-IS) on the aggregated peak electric loads of States and Union
Territories forming part of the Region. Peak electric load for tbe country as a whole is thc
arithmetic sum of regional peak electric loads divided hy the Annual Diversity Factor-InterRcgional (ADF-IR) plus APEL of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
1.4.5 Annual Diversity Factor (ADF)
Various factors that detcrminc the Annual Diversity Factor arc described below:
(a)

The permanent factors:

I.

Time phasing between areas located at far east and far west.

Chapu:r I: Introduction & Methodology

30

17th Electric Power Survey

2.

The proximity of an area/StatelUT to the sea and its geological features.

3.

Proximity of an area/State/UT to the hills/mountains because of its geographical location.

4.

Diversified cultural activities.

(b)

Variable factors:

I.

Meteorological variations e.g. variations in rainfall / ambient temperatures / conditions of


draughts/floods/cyclones as climatic irregularities & natural calamities.

2.

Degree of demand side management (DSM) for flattening of load curve.

Annual Diversity Factor is a factor indicative of non-simultaneous occurrence of annual


peak electric loads in the States/UTs of a Region or non-simultaneous annual peak electric loads
of different Regions of India resulting into a simultaneous annual peak electric load of the
Region or the mainland of India which is lesser than the arithmetic sum of annual peak electric
loads of all States/Union Territories of the Region or all Regions of the mainland of India
respectively.
Annual Diversity Factor -Inter State (ADF-IS) as used herein is the ratio of aggregate of
the annual peak electric loads of the systems of the constituent States/Union Territories of the
Region to the annual simultaneous peak electric load of the Region.
Annual Diversity Factor -Inter Regional (ADF-IR) as used herein is the ratio of
aggregate of the annual peak electric loads of the regional systems of all five Regions of the
mainland of India, excluding Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep, to the annual
simultaneous peak electric load of the mainland.
1.5

METHODOLOGY

1.5.1

.'orecasl upto 2011-12

All India, Region-wise, State-wise and Category-wise forecast has been made in detail on yearly
basis for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 for utility systems only.

Partial End-Use Methodology (PEUM) is a combination of International forecasting


methodologies i.e. time series analysis and end-use method. PEUM has been used for forecasting
the electricity demand. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving
higher weightage to the recent trend so as to incorporate the benefits of the energy conservation
initiatives and new technologies. However, in cases where no definite trend emerged,
chronological or maximum AGR-maximum weightage have been used for forecasting electricity
demand.

31

Chapter I. Introduction & Methodology

17th Electric Power Survey

1.5.1.1.1 Categories of Consumption


The All India, Region-wise and StatelUT-wise forecast of electricity consumption has been made
on yearly basis for each of the following categories of consumption:
(a)

Domestic

(b)

Commercial

(c)

Public Lighting

(d)

Public Water Works

(e)

Irrigation

CO

Industrial (LT, HT less than I MW each, HT I MW and above each)

(g)

Railway Traction &

ih)

Bulk Non- Industrial HT Supply

The forecast has been carried out for each State & Union Territory for rural & urban area
separatc!y and aggregated to obtain the estimate for the Region/ All-India.

The electricity consumption in these sectors has been estimated on the basis of number oC
electricity consumers (Mid-year) and their specific elcctlical energy consumption (Average
electricity comumption per consumer).

The Electricity Policy provides Corpower to all and accordingly all the households by 2011-2012
have been considered for providing electricity connections Cor working out of the electricity
demand projection.

Electricity consumption per consumer hus been estimated after studying the past trends and
taking into account the anticipated improvements in the life style and electricity supply position.
A gradual decrease in the level of electricity consumption per consumer has been noticed in
majority of the States particularly in the Stales/VTs who have been suffering from serious
electricity ,horrage. The ,pecific consumption reduction has also been noted on account of new
connection in large number. Specific consumption in domestic category is expected to improve
,)11 account of increased avail".bility of electrici'lY. Accordingly. marginalIy rising trend has bcen

Chapter

J : InlroductlOn & M<:thodoJog:

32

,L
.i~~/Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

~:'"

considered for all States/UTs to take care of electricity supply restrictions,


accelerated rural electrification programme.

cuts. etc. and

(c&d) Public Lighting & Public VVat~r VVorks


The forecast of consumption of electricity in these two categories has been based on estimated
connected electric load (kW) and the average electricity consumption per kilowatt of connected
electric load (kWhlkW). The connected electric load has been projected on the basis of past
trends and increase in public lighting and water supply facilities. The number of hours of
operation has been determined on the basis of past trends and making adjustment for the effeet of
power cuts for public lighting subject to practical limits.
(c)

Irrigation Category

Pumpsets/Tubewells
The following formula has been adopted for forecasting the electrical energy consumption of this
category.
Y =

NxSxH

Y =

Electricity consumption in kWh

Number of pump sets as at the middle of the year

Where

= Average capacity of pumpset in kW at the middle of the year

H =

Average electricity consumption per year per kilowatt of connected electric load
(kWh/kW)

Number of Irrigation Pump-sets


The electricity demand for energisation 01'pump-sets for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 has been
based on the programme of pump set installation furnished by the Electricity BoardsfUtilities
after giving due consideration to actual progress achieved in the past subjected to total potential
of energisation of irrigation pump-sets.
Capacity of Irrigation Pumpsets
The average capacity of pump sets has been worked out by studying the growth trend of mid ycar
figures for both the connected electric load and the number ot pump sets in the past years. Based
on these trends, the growth in average capacity of pump set for future was determined.

33

Chapter

I Introduction & tv1clhudolog.)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

i~O~~~

j}!t~~{iii'
,.,

Average Electricity Consumption per kW per year


A study regarding the growth of average electricity consumption per irrigation pump set in the
past indicates that there is a decreasing trend in most of the States. However, marginally rising
trcnd has been considered to take care of extensive irrigation practices, multiple cropping.
depletion in under ground water table and the restrictions in electricity supply hours.
Lift Irrigation Schemes
The consumption for each lift irrigation scheme has been separately estimated on the basis of
connected electric load and anticipated hours of operation adopting End-use methodology.
(f)

Industrial Category

The electricity requirement


categories viz.
(i)

for the industrial sector has been estimated

under three sub-

L.T. Industries

(ii) H.T. Industries each with a demand less than I MW


(iii) H.T. Industries each with a demand of I MW & above.
The electricity consumption in the first two categories has been projected on the basis of pasr
trends and scope for development in future. It was observed that the number of and consumption
in LT Industrics is rising rapidly. Therefore, higher growth has been accorded to LT Industries in
view of its larger contribution in economy.
In the case of third category, projection has been made separately for each industrial unit
considering the reported production on the basis of information furnished by the industrialuuits.
From the overall electrical energy consumption in an industrial unit obtained by the above
method, the demand to bc met by captive power plant has bccn deductecl to arrive at the demand
on the utility system. The projection of self consumption from captive electricity generation has
been madc on the basis of past level of self consumption and taking into account the likely
augmentation of captive electricity generation capacity in future. A table giving State-wise
estimated electricity demand of the captive power producers which is expected to be met from
their own electricity generation is eneloscd at Annexure-III.

Chapter I: Introduction & Methodology

34

17th Electric Power Survey

,LH~;' Central Electricity Authority

(g)

Railway Traction

The estimates for this category are based on the requirement of existing railway tracks and the
track electrification programme envisaged by the Railway Authorities/Rail Corporations. The
estimates as supplied by the Railway Board / Metro Rail Corporation were discussed in detail
and finalized.
(h)

Bulk Non-Industrial

HT Supply

The electricity consumption in this category covers electricity used in Research Establishments,
Port Trusts, Military Engineering Services, power projects (construction supply), etc. The
electricity requirements by specific consumers where data was available have been considered
for the forecast. For other loads the projections were based on the past trends.
1.5.1.1.2 Total Electrical Energy Consumption at Consumer End
The estimates of tctal electrical energy consumption at consumers' end have been anived at by
aggregating the sector-wise projections.
1.5.1.1.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses
The pDst trend in T&D losses for each State, Union Territory and All India has been studied. The
factors which have contributed towards setting of trend in losses are:
(i)

Extension

of the L.T.lOistribution

net work covering

more and more areas of the

States/UTs.
(ii)

Low load densities and long lines.

(iii) Introduction of flat rate rariff for agricultural consumers in many of the States.
(iv)

Unauthorized and undetected use of electrical energy.

The losses due to first two causes can be termed as 'Technical Losses" and could be brought
down by carrying out system improvements. The losses due to other causes can be termed as
"Unaccounted Energy" which can be brought down only by administrative steps, introduction of
metered supply to reflect t.he true level of electricity consumption by the consumers and energy
andits of electricity supplying feeders, etc. Any reduction in the "Unaccounted Energy" brought
down by above methods could be accompanied by a corresponding increase in the sale of energy.
Therefore, reduction in electrical energy loss during transmission & distribution of electricity has
been considered for future projections as per loss reduction plan informed by State Electricity
Regulatory Ccmmissions / Boards / Utilities. Most of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions
furnished only short tenn targets for reduction.

35

Chapter

I : Introduction & Methodology

17th Electric Power Survey

The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for rednction of transmission & distribution
losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilitiesl Electricity Departmentsl Licensees. The guidelines
stated that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between 10-15 % in different
States/UTs taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development
in the
transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment
and meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its
spatial jurisdiction, nature of loads, etc. Above factors have been given due weightage while
deciding the lower limit ofT&D loss under T&D loss reduction programme by 2021-22.
1.5.1.1.4 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER) at Generating End

The electrical energy requirement at generating station bus-bars has been arrived at for each
StatelUnion Territory by adding the T&D losses to the total electrical energy consumption at
consumers end.
1.5.1.1.5 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELf)

The electric load factor of a power system depends on the pattern of utilization of different
classes of load. If the system feeds block indnstrialloads like Aluminium, Fertilizer etc. having
high electric load factor, the overall system ,oad factor would also tend to be high. In regard to
estimation of electric load factor for future, if the pattern of utilization of differerit classes of load
does not differ appreciably from the past in terms of percentage of total electric load, then it was
assnmed that the system load factor of the past may continue. If, however, as is usually the case,
the pattcrn is anticipated to change with respect to total electric load due to gradual withdrawal
of restrictions Icuts I shedding & under frequency conditions, then it is necessary to estimate the
future electric load factor. A study was made to ascertain how the changes in the load mix may
int1uencc the load factor. Since thcre wcrc restrictions on peak demands and on the use of energy
in thesc years, the electric load factor was obtained after making due allowances for the declining
restrictions, power cuts and under freqnency conditions. Based on these studies and analysis of
future electric load mix, the future electric load factor for each StatelUnion Territory has been
determined.
The effect of peaking loads like that of domestic seClor and commercial sector due to accelerated
programme of rural electrification shall cause declining trend in Annual Electric Load Factor
upto the year 2011-2012 depcnding upon the magnitude of rural electrification. In the States like
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya Prauesh etc. the effect is estimated to be more
pronounced. In some StateslUTs, the load factor may not decline sharply due to implementation
of demand side management, advance technique" of load management & differential tariff for
peak & off peak hours. In few States I UTs, due to increase in the share of hase electric loads like
industrial loads, the load factor is estimated to improve or maintain its present level.

Chapter

I : Introduction & Mdhodology

36

~~'"

17th Electric Power Survey

Centra! Electricity Authority

I.S.I.I.n

Annual Peak Electric Load (A PEL)

Annual Peak Electric Load for each StatelUnion Territory has been arrived at by applying the
estimated annual electric load factor on the electrical energy requirement at the generating
station bus-bars.
Regional peak electric load has been arrived at by applying Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Statc
(ADF-IS) on the aggregate of non-simultaneous peak electric loads of the States and Union
Territories forming part of the Region.
The following ADF-IS have been estimated applying gradual reduction due to expected decrease
in the severity of Inter-State diversity for Regional APEL projections for the year 2011-2012 as
under:
Northern Region

1.08

Western Region

1.07

Southern Region

1.04

Eastern Region

1.04

North Eastern Region

1.08

All India Peak Electric Load has been worked out by dividing the sum of the non-simultaneous
peak electric loads of all the regions, excluding the islands, by thc ADF-IR and then adding
APELs of islands to it.
An ADF-IR of 1.03 has been estimated for the year 2011-12 applying gradual reduction in the
existing ADF-IR due to expected decrease in the severity of Inter-Regional Diversity.
IS!.!. 7 Steps Taken to over come the Effect of Cuts. Restrictions

and Under- frcquencj

Conditions
The category wise forecast of electricity consumption was made adopting high growth rates of
variables to ensure that the projections are made for gradual improvements in power supply
position with emergence of surplus electricity supply position in year 20] 1-2012 having
adequate spinning reserve as laid down in the National Electricity Policy. A separate set of
forecast of electricity demand has been included in this report adding electricity shortage in full
to the electrical energy available and peak met for the year 2004-2005 and then applying uniform
growth rates for assessing the electricity demand for achieving the targets/objectives as per the
Naticlnal Electricity Policy in year 2011-2012.

37

Chapter I' Introduction & Methodology

17th Electric Power Survey

1.5.1.1.8 The PEUM methodology described above has been applied for rural-urban areas
separately for the StateslUTs for which the bifurcated data was made available, otherwise
estimates were made based on rural-urban division of population/ households or other logics.
1.5.1,2

5'//(ir!agc

(olJ1pcJ/satioll

Central Electricity Authority collects hourly data regarding electrical energy not served or peak
demand that could not be met due to scheduled cuts(Restrictions imposed ), unscheduled
cuts(Load shedding) and under-frequency conditions, from the StateslUTs on daily basis and
compiles the information for calculating electricity shortages. These shortages generally affect
the domestic, commercial or LT industrial consumers i.e., the electric loads mainly responsible
for peaking electricity requirement. These shortages have been treated as factual and total.
Therefore, year-wise and StatelUT-wise electrical energy requirement has been worked out upto
year 2011-12 on the basis of 2004-05 data after adding one time shortages in the base year to the
electric peak met and electrical energy available. The forecast is placed under Chapter II of this
report. It is a macro level forecast and, therefore, category-wise consumption & rnral-urban wise
break-up is not available. The forecast has been modulated to achieve the targets/objectives of
the National Electricity Policy in the year 201112.
1.5.1.3 !:"i'OIl.JI}li'lrii'

Mode/ling

Technique

The econometric model selected by Prof. Rao of JNU was a multi variate model using following
economic indicators:
(a)

Total per capita GDP

(b)

Sectoral GDP (All India & State-wise)

(c)

Electricity Intensity

(d)

Electricity Price

(e)

Structural Changes (Service & export oriented sectoral)

The regression model equation used to work out projections of category-wise


consumption by co-integration with related independent variables is given below:
LnQ

= a + b.Ln(PCGDP)

+ c.Ln(P) + d. (SS) -e. (INTEN)

whers :
Natural Logarithm

Ln
Q
PCGDP

\ 'hapt<.:r I _ k:ruduuioll

Electricity Demanc1
Per Capita Gross Domestic Product

& Methodology

38

electricity

,,;il~~~/
Central Electricity

17th Electric Power Survey

Authority

\i

Electricity Price

INTEN

Electricity Intensity (ratio between value-added produced by economy and


electricity consumed by the economy)

SS

Stmctural Changes (Total Scrvice Sector Share in GDP)

a, b, c, d, e--

n
--------

are coefficients

Above equation with co-efficient values as per below was used:


LnQ

1.400. Ln(PCGDP) - O.On.Ln(P) + 0.00824.INTEN + O.OI.SS

Forecasting at Aggregate Level


Using co-integration Equation cited above, forecast of aggregate electricity demand upto 20212022, was made. PCGDP has been assumed to grow at the rate of 6,7 and 7.5 percent per year.
Time series techniques have been used to predict for clectricity intensity on the hasis of last
seven years. Electricity Prices have been assumed to grow at the rate of two percent per year at
constant prices. In total twelve scenarios for electricity forecasting has hecn made. It has been
assumed that the share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55
percent
Forecasting at Sectoral Level
For the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDP could be
collected only since 1992-93. Thereforc, in sectoral analysis, OLS was used rather than cointegration tecbniques for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it was as,umed that the sectoral
consumption is the function of sectoral GDP and tari ff rate in that sector. Trend analysis was
used for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railWay';' public lighting and water
sectors.
1.5.2

Forecast Beyond 2011-2012

1.5.2.1 The long term electricity demand projections for the period bcyond 2011-2012 upto the
year 2021-2022, following the results obtained using mcthodologies explained under sections
1.5.1.1& 1.5.1.2have been made by applying growth rates of overall electrical energy consumption
of the StatesfUTs as per the guiding factors detailed below, adding TDL having declining
percentage with lower ceiling as per CEA Guidelines and then using AELF having improving
trend.
The growth rates for projection have been determined aftcr studying th" growth rates anticipated
npto the ycar and keeping in view the enlarging base. The peak t'lectric loads have been
cstimated after applying suitable annual electric load fact()j', in thp case of States and Union

39

Chapter

I ]mruduc\ioll & Methodolo?y

.~.

17th Electric Power Survey

Central ElectricityAuthoritY.,~~~

I.:

Territories and suitable annual diversity factors in the case of Regions. All India peak electric
load is the sum of the Regional peak electric loads divided by Annual Diversity Factor-InterRegion (ADF-IR) and of Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep. This method has
been adopted in absence of any indication about the likely development profile in the StatesfUTs.
The Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS) is estimated to have a declining trend in 12'h
& l3tl' Five Year Plan period for the reasons already explained in para 1.5.1.1.6of this Report. The
Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS)for 2016-17 & 2021-22 for various Regions as
adopted for making long term projections are given below:

..

2021-22

Northern

1.07

1.06

Western
Southern

1.0625
1.035

1.055
1.03

Eastern
North Eastern

1.035
1.07

1.03
1.06

ADF-IR as estimated for the year 2016-17 & 2021-22 shall be 1.025 & 1.02 respectively.
As the long-term forecast is only an indicative forecast which would facilitate identification of
resources of power for advance action, it is to be considered that the present methodology would
meet the requirements. These long-tenn forecasts will have to be reviewed, from timc to time,
when the outlines of the perspective development on a longer time horizon become available.
1.6

ASSUMPTIONS

1.6.1

Partial End-Use Methodology

(a)

('hapter

The year 2003-04 has been assumed as the base year for forecasting the electricity demand.
The figures for the base year 2003-04 correspond to restricted electricity supply conditions.
The energy consumption figures for the base year are the actual electrical energy sold by
the Utilities or Licensees to the consumers. Therefore, in the case of utilities where
restrictionslload shedding lunder-frequency conditions were imposed, the consumption
during the base year would have been more than what has been indicated in the report.
Similarly, the real requirement of electrical energy during the base year would have been
more than what has been indicated in the report. The figures of peak electric load in respect
of base year indicated in the report are recorded ones. Wherever restrictions were imposed,
the recorded peak electric loads would be lower than what would have been recorded under
unrestricted conditions.

I: Introduction & Methodology

40

/,1

~,~/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

."i

(b)

The forecast of the electricity demand has been made for the utility systems only and,
therefore, docs not include a portion of demand of the HT Industries that would be met
from captive power plants.

(c)

Gradual
2006 to
surplus
assumed

(d)

National GDP is likely to grow at an average rate of 8 tolO % upto the year 2011-2012,
continue its growth at an average rate of about 8-10 % during 12'h plan period and is
estimated to grow at an average rate of about 8 % during 13th plan.

(e)

Higher growth rates of electricity consumption


have been assumed for poor performing
StatesfUTs having low per capita electricity consumption, economic potential and scope of
development of various sectors.

(I)

All rural households shall get electrified


electrification programme.

(g)

Number of domestic consumers for the year 2011-2012


estimated households for year 2011-20] 2.

(h)

The States f UTs shall provide necessary infrastructural


facilities for development
of
electric load in various sectors and ensure restoration of closed industries and setting up of
new industries.

(i)

The Annual Electric Load Factor is estimated to improve in the period beyond 20]]-2012
due to improved implementation
of demand side management, advance techniques of load
management & differential tariff for peak & off peak hours.

(j)

Reduction in Transmission & Distribution losses shall continue in the period beyond 20112012 with an estimated achievement of T&D losses indicated in CEA's Guidelines.

(k)

The Indian economy presently maintaining an elasticity ratio of about 0.75 between growth
rates of electricity & GDP shall have gradually declining elasticity ratio.

improvement in power supply position has been considered for the period 20052011-2012 aiming at power supply to all consumers during the year 2011-2012 i.e.
power supply conditions having adequate spinning reserve. It has, therefore, been
that the electricity shortages shall be wiped off completely in the year 2011-2012.

up to thc year 2011-2012

under accelerated

shall be equal

rural

to number

of

1.6.2 Methodology of Compematioll for Shortage in the Base Year (2004-2005)


(a)

The base electricity

demand in the year 2004-05 has been reckoned.

(b)

The shortages have been worked out after accounting for the restrictions, cuts and under
frequency compensation as reported by the StatcsfUTs to CEA in their daily reports.

(c)

The projections of the growth of electrical energy consumption


and peak electric load
(StatefUT-wise)
have been arrived at by applying compounded growth rates after adding
the actual shortages to the dem2nd met.

41

Chapter

I : Introduction & Methodology

CHAPTER-II
SUMMARY AND REVIEW

~:;~11i/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER II

SUMMARY AND REVIEW


2.1

ELECTRICITY FORECAST DIGEST

The electricity demand forecast is an important input for planning of the power sector to
meet the future power requirement of various sectors of electricity consumption. A planned load
growth in industry, agriculture, domestic and other sectors is necessary to have unified growth in
all sectors of economy and therefore it is necessary that infrastructure is planned in various
sectors of electricity consumption so as to direct the overall growth of economy in rational
manner. The 17'h EPS has considered appropriate growth rate in all sectors of the Indian
economy to remove the constraints in the electricity supply and achieve accelerated GDP growth
over the growth qchieved during the last 5-8 years.
The electricity forecast exercise, the planning of the generation capacity and development
of the infrastructure in various sectors of electricity consumption are complementary to one
another. The capacity addition for generation and development of corresponding EHV
infrastructure is planned by Central Electricity Authority on long term basis. The present plans
for generation and transmission are aiming to meet the electricity requirement in full by 20112012, make power available on demand and also provide for spinning reserve to improve the
quality and reliability of electricity supply.
The electricity consumption by the end consumer is the guiding factor for evaluating thc
electricity demand for the future. The energy consumption pattern are changing with the invent
of technology and energy conservation mcasures initiated by Government and the industrial
sector. Efforts have been made to collect the data on electricity saving on account of energy
conservation measures initiated by HT industries and the results have shown above 1.5% saving
in energy consumption during the year 2004-05. It has not becn possible to capture the electricity
saving in all sections of energy consumption. However, the higher weightage provided to the
latest trends in the energy conservation follows the latest trend in technology and energy
conservation efforts by various stake holders.
The electricity demand projections are based on various assumptions as enumerated in
Chapter-I. However, to achieve the maximum benefit of the forecast it would be necessary to
dcvelop infrastructure for transmission and distribution for uninterrupted flow of power to the
consumcr in all sectors of consumption like industry, agriculture, domestic, etc. particularly rural
sector, commercial, etc.

45

Chapter

II : Summary

and R<.:vi<.:w

17th Electric Power Survey

CentralElectricityAuthority!~!,""

V
It has be,'1l noticed in the past that there had been a gap between the electricity forecast alld
the aetllal achievements on all Indi~ basis. For some of the States the gap between the demand
projectiolls and the actual loa.d requiremellt had been very large due to scanty growth of the load
demand. There are 8 States for which the load growth had been scanty (less than 4%) while 17
States achieved moderate load growth of 4-1% against] 6'h BPS growth rate of 6.33% and a few
:lchieved high growth rates. The States with lower electricity
demand growth rate arc
comparatively
less developed States and if these States have to catch up with others, then tbey
arc required to accelerate their electricity cOllsumption in industry, commerce and agriculture so
as to generate sustainable economic developmellt.
The electricity demand forecast has been
prepared based on the "forcsaid phi losophy so as to provide equitable growth ill the COUlltry .

2.2

ENERGY DEMAND AND THE PEAK LOAD DEMAND

lolectrical Ellergy Requirement and the Peak Load Demand are important elements of the
electrical supply projections. The electrical energy demand represents the productive clement
which goes into the cnpital building of the nRlion while peak demand is the operational
parameter of th~ utilization of electrical energy. The ideal energy requirement
would point
t\,wards constant load throughout the period under consideration and for the purpose of EPS the
same is on yearly hasis. However the energy requirement of various consumers is different for
different season, iiF11~, place C1.1ld process and energy Jnd peak deumnd changes accordingly. The
r:llic) of peak dcnund and tbt~ I)rr-p('a1< demand in the ;\lllndi3
5YStcll1 varies upto iSOC;;; over
sholt period and '.Ipio)OO% (monthly bilsis) over long term (yearly basis) on allnual basis. The
reduction 01' gap IJelw,,,,n IW,'k lo"d "Tld off-peak load wonld mean higher utilization of the
installed generating cnpaeity. The peak demand could be milnaged with prudent Demand Side
1\-1anagement and co-ordination
between various illdustriClI,
agriculture, cOlnmercial and bulk
consumers. Though various State lItilities arc making effort to shave off the peak through various
initiatives like Timc or the Day ('100) metering and imposing load restrictions in various load
centrcs by rotation, it I~as been, however, noted in many States that the peak load growth has
beell much higher than the corresponding
increase in the energy requirement.
While there is
regular pattern in the growth of electrical energy, the peak load has noticed quantum jumps at
il regular intervals over the years. The sudden jump in the peak demand growth are noticeable in
States with high industrialization,
agriculture or commercial activities like Maharashtm, Punjab,
Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh etc. A stndy of the regional Load Duration Curve (LDC) reveals thm
the high peak persists for short period of less than half an hour on an average which contributes
to 5% peak demand, whereas th" },,,I peak persists for over 4 hours a day.
The high peak cai; be managed through various DSM and energy conservation
measures,
thus the 2"<] peek which is of the order of 95% of the high peak is the rea] system peak. Tbe freak
variations of 56% in peak demand can appenr for short duration on State basis. Thus, the
quantum iucrease in the peak Iknland without corresponding
increase in the energy requirement
woult! he harlll()J\iI,(~d nv(':" JOllV perIod alld arc. therefore, treated as freak illcrc,lse in the load

Chapter II . Summary and Hcvicw

46

,~!1~;~

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

demand without having significant impact on systcm operation. Such freak variations of peal<
demand could be met by farger thermal generating units of 200/500 MW capacity by resorting to
VWO operating 1 HP heater by passing etc. It would be rather uneconomical to put additional
generating capacity as such to meet such short time peak demands. The summary of the energy
requirement and expected peak demand by the end of year 2011-11 are given below:

(in GWIl) ,

Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only)


2004-05 2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Statel UT
~----_.-

2010-11}2011-12

181203

North ern Region

195359

209137
""---

Weste rn Region

204819

223054

233486

South ern Region

150457

163710

176037

~--

Easte -~_.
rn Region
__ .
North -Eastern
Re io n ~-------ISLAN OS

59015

64498

7145

7812

Lal,sh acJweep
----.-

Ailino iia

.-

126

146

-----

.,"~-.~~
...

77221

70547

602787

n_

-~_._"-~---.-._~""~._.-

_-- ._';'",,'~'~

--

~-

9326

------

84601
10193

-~----- f----~----

..-- f-----

219

193

_._-~---f---------24
654603

215171

256859

.- --.--"

256U75
268307
281220
------- -- ------.189312 1---203606
219001
235582

-----

-.----,=8534
f---~-- ----

---

22

,,-------

239807

244481

----~-_._~

-.-.---

Andar nan & Nicobar


------ - --- ----

223928

248

f---------

----.~-

28

26

294860

-------1

253443

-------101805
111802

92767

-.---------

11141

--

294841

... ~---~--

12184

13329

.------.-

.---~-----_._281

_._~

31
34
--------,-.
----~697961 -744515
794561 --848:390
....... -~.~--_._~,.--~'--_ .._.~~_w_
....,~._._-"-

__

-----

~-_.~_

Northern f1egion

~.--------.

2004-05

2005-06

27759

30030

Western Region

31256

33142

Southern f1egion

23516

25673

Eastern Region

9317

10322

Norttl-Eastern

1272

1404

2006-07

2007-08

906316

(in MW)I

2008-09- -2009-10-

32487 --- 35145---

2010-11 --2011-121

380214-1131-

-=-------------

-~

35143

37264

39513

41898

27441

29854

32192

34715

37434

12670

14037

15552

17230

1710

1888

2083

2299

~j{)-,,--~-----

Andarnan

& Nicobar

Lakshadwe_ep
All India

28
7
90221

..

1549

-----

ISLANDS

--------

11436

._---~

-~----

.. --

43 ----49 ----56
-'71--'--8 ..-~-- 8
9

~;;8i"37I

--44496

----~-'_c_f__---.--------

44427
__

~---------

~O !
---------. ~
9G86~q:

37

17th EPS FORECAST


Peak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only)

Siate/UT----

~4~41

~::-3-1-6~~-

-- ---

--------

33

un.

~-

40367

----19088
---.--2537

-- ..
- --------

---un

6371

--

47108
_.

1-0------11---{\

-.

97269

104867

113059

121891

131413

141678

152746

State wise details are given in the Tables 2. I & 2.2.

-------------------------------------~
.-..:

47

Chapter

Il : Summary and Review

Central Electricity Authority ~~--

17th Electric Power Survey

ll"

Table 2.1
All India and State/UT wise Forecast
Electrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in TWh)
State/UT

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Delhi
Harvana
Himachai Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Puniab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Ultaranchal
Chandigarh
Sub Total (NR)
Goa
Guiarat
Chhattisqarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Hayeli
Daman & Diu
Sub Total (WR)
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Total (SR)
Bihar
Jharkhand

21.157
21.801
4.516
8.138
35.861
30.392
53.033
5.010
1.295
181.203
2.323
60.124
11.750
34.114
93.217
2.105
1.186
204.819
48.928
35.157
12.698
51.449
2.225
150.457
7.201
11.057
13.980
26.573
0.204
59.015
3.810
0.537
1.374
0.330
0.700
0.158
0.236
7.145

22.853
23.890
5.022
9.450
38.642
32.530
56.167
5.398
1.407
195.359
2.560
63.220
13.230
36.920
103 .200
2.542
1.382
223.054
54.683
37.334
13.760
55.479
2.454
163.710
8.327
12.308
15.371
28.274
0.218
64.498
4.182
0.581
1.460
0.367
0.759
0.210
0.254
7.812

24.684
25.858
5.585
9.722
41.639
34.819
59.486
5.816
1.528
209.137
2.821
66.475
14.377
38.748
106.643
2.849
1.573
233.486
59.311
39.646
14.549
59.824
2.707
176.037
9.629
13.700
16.900
30.084
0.234
70.547
4.618
0.629
1.551
0.408
0.822
0.232
0.274
8.534

26.662
27.989
6.212
10.001
44.868
37.268
63.002
6.267
1.659
223.928
3.108
69.898
15.623
40.666
110.201
3.194
1.790
244.481
64.331
42.101
15.384
64.510
2.986
189.312
11.134
15.249
18.582
32.009
0.247
77.221
5.100
0.681
1.648
0.454
0.891
0.257
0.295
9.326

28.799
30.295
6.909
10.289
48.347
39.890
66.725
6.752
1.802
239.807
3.425
73.497
16.977
42.680
113.878
3.580
2.038
256.075
69.775
44.709
16.266
69.563
3.293
203.606
12.874
16.974
20.431
34.058
0.264
84.601
5.632
0.737
1.751
0.505
0.966
0.284
0.318
10.193

31.107
32.791
7.684
10.585
52.096
42.697
70.668
7.275
1.957
256.859
3.774
77.282
18.448
44.793
117.678
4.013
2.319
268.307
75.680
47.477
17.200
75.011
3.633
219.001
14.886
18.894
22.464
36.238
0.285
92.767
6.219
0.797
1.860
0.562
1.046
0.314
0.343
11.141

33.600
35.493
8.545
10.889
56.136
45.701
74.845
7.838
2.125
275.171
4.159
81.261
20.047
47.011
121.604
4.498
2.640
281.220
82.085
50.417
18.186
80.886
4.007
235.582
17.213
21.031
24.699
38.557
0.305
101.805
6.868
0.862
1.976
0.626
1.134
0.348
0.370
12.184

36.293
38.417
9.504
11.202
60.489
48.916
79.268
8.445
2.308
294.841
4.583
85.445
21.785
49.338
125.661
5.042
3.005
294.860
89.032
53.540
19.230
87.222
4.419
253.443
19.905
23.408
27.149
41.020
0.320
111.802
7.585
0.932
2.101
0.698
1.229
0.386
0.398
13.329

0.126
0.022
602.787

0.146
0.024
654.603

0.193
0.219
0.026
0.028
697.961 744.515

0.248
0.031
794.561

0.281
0.034
848.390

0.316
0.037
906.316

0.344
0.040
968.659

Orissa

West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Total (ER)
Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Naqaland
Tripura
Aru"achal Pradesh
Mizoram

Sub Total (NERl


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
"ioial (All India)

Chapter II : Summary and Review

48

$r.llll
';("-::J:W~)
Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 2.2
All India and State/UT wise Forecast
Peak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in GW)
State/UT
Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Raiasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh
Sub Total (NR)
Goa
Guiarat
Chhattisaarh
Madhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu
Sub Total (WR)
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Total (SR)
Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa

West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Total (ER)
Assam
Manipur
Meahalava
Naqaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

Sub Total (NERI


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
Total (All India)

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08.

3.626
4.037
0.772
1.316
7.605
4.967
8.057
0.914
0.248
27.759
0.385
10.226
1.893
5.944
14.986
0.391
0.223
31.256
8.168
5.928
2.452
8.215
0.347
23.516
1.154
1.991
2.237
4.723
0.058
9.317
0.663
0.103
0.264
0.074
0.188
0.063
0.071
1.272

3.905
4.353
0.858
1.600
8.016
5.650
8.714
1.000
0.267
30.030
0.422
10.736
2.150
6.650
16.200
0.431
0.254
33.142
8.810
6.275
2.650
9.420
0.383
25673
1.339
2.222
2.454
5.035
0.061
10.322
0.741
0.125
0.283
0.082
0.200
0.D75
0.076
1.404

4.205
4.693
0.953
1.669
8.451
6.046
9.425
1.074
0.288
32.487
0.461
11.271
2.339
6.923
17.042
0.476
0.289
35.143
9.597
6.642
2.779
10.090
0.421
27.441
1.570
2.480
2.717
5.367
0.064
11.436
0.828
0.144
0.303
0.091
0.213
0.081
0.081
1.549

4.529
5.060
1.059
1.741
8.908
6.469
10.193
1.153
0.311
35.145
0.504
11.833
2.545
7.206
17.927
0.525
0.329
37.264
10.454
7.031
2.915
10.807
0.464
29.854
1.842
2.768
3.009
5.721
0.067
12.670
0.925
0.154
0.325
0.101
0.226
0.087
0.087
1.710

4.877
5.456
1.176
1.817
9.390
6.923
11.024
1.238
0.335
38.021
0.551
12.422
2.769
7.501
18.859
0.579
0.374
39.513
11.388
7.442
3.058
11.575
0.511
32.192
2.177
3.089
3.327
6.099
0.071
14.037
1.034
0.165
0.348
0.112
0.240
0.094
0.093
1.888

5.253
5.883
1.306
1.895
9.899
7.408
11.923
1.330
0.361
41.131
0.603
13.042
3.012
7.809
19.839
0.639
0.426
41.898
12.406
7.877
3.207
12.398
0.563
34.715
2.575
3.448
3.674
6.502
0.D76
15.552
1.155
0.177
0.373
0.124
0.255
0.101
0.100
2.083

5.657
6.343
1.451
1.977
10.435
7.927
12.896
1.428
0.389
44.496
0.660
13.692
3.277
8.129
20.870
0.705
0.485
44.427
13.514
8.338
3.364
13.280
0.620
37.434
3.046
3.848
4.051
6.931
0.080
17.230
1.291
0.189
0.400
0.137
0.271
0.109
0.107
2.299

6.092
6.839
1.611
2.063
11.000
8.482
13.947
1.533
0.420
48.137
0.721
14.374
3.565
8.462
21.954
0.778
0.552
47108
14.721
8.826
3.528
14.224
0.683
40.367
3.607
4.296
4.459
7.407
0.083
19.088
1.443
0.203
0.428
0.152
0.282
0.116
0.115
2.537

0.028
0.007
90.221

0.033
0.007
97.269

0.043
0.008
104.867

0.049
0.008
113.059

0.056
0.009
121.891

0.063
0.010
131.413

0.071
0.011
141.678

0.077
0.011
152.746

49

2008-09..2009:10.

2010-11!

Chapter

.20JH2

1! Summary and Revic\v

17th Electric Power Survey

2.3

VISION BEYOND 2011-2012

The tenth Five Year Plan has witnessed annual GDP growth rate of 8-9%. India has good economic
fundamentals and also could benefit from vibrant Asian economy. India is not only a large market in itself but
also has large technical and skilled human resource pool to attract investment for setting-up manufacturing
facilities for lots of industries including pharmaceuticals and electrical industry. Neighboring Asian countries
particularly China, Taiwan and South Korea have sustained GDP growth rates hovering over 10% and the
Indian economy has recently shown developmental signs that can possibly sustain double digit growth rate.
Electrical energy is the prime-mover of all modem economies. To achieve high GDP growth India has
already opened up and liberalized its economy across aU the sectors and opened its doors for Foreign Direct
Investment. The new policy has encouraged 100% foreign direct investment in generation, transmission,
distribution and trading of electricity. Necessary precautions have been taken to assess the demand of
electricity to enable the achievement of high GDP growth rate. The elasticity ratio between electricity growth
and growth of GDP is anticipated to foUow declining trend as has been visualized in the Report of the Expert
Committee on Integrated Energy Policy (August, 2006). (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para-6)
The electricity demand forecast is a complex exercise and is a direct function of the industrialization,
population, productivity, per capita GDP, geographical & climatic conditions, seasonal variations and of the
present status of electrification, etc. and accordingly, varies from country to country. Another parameter that
plays a crucial role in assessing with demand of electricity is the energy intensity of various economic
activities. Whereas the developed countries have negative population growth and high per capita GDP, the
developing countries have higher population growth and very low per capita GDP growth. Similarly the
demographic and geographical features also have considerable impact on the total energy demand. The growth
rate of energy demand in India, particularly the electricity demand, therefore, does not follow the growth
signature of other countries particularly when alternate energy sources are non-competitive. The growth rate in
electricity demand further gets influenced with high level ofT&D losses in India.
The growth of electricity consumption and generation in India during the past 30 years is shown in the
table below:

'GRO\VTH OF ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTi:ON
Time Period

Elasticity Ratio
Electricity IGDP

Electricity

Gross

GDP(93-94

Consumption

Generation*

prices)"''''

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)=(2)/(4)

(6)=(3)/(4)

30 Yrs.: 2004-05 to 1974-75

6.87

7.47

5.40

1.27

1.38

25 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1979-80

6.60

7.36

5.79

1.14

1.27

20 Yrs. : 2004-05 tu 1984-85

6.29

7.09

5.83

1.08

1.22

15Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1989-90

5.40

6.20

5.80

0.93

1.07

IOYrs. : 2004-05 to 1994-95

4.05

5.58

6.20

0.65

0.90

5 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1999-00

4.30

4.37

5.90

0.73

0.74

(1)

{
Charter

IN INDIA

CAGR (%)

II Slll11l1laryand

*Dala Source - General Review.


**Data Source - Website I Publications of CSO.

Rl~\,jCv..

50

_~~~:

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

The table above shows that the rate of growth of electricity demand is gradually decreasing over
the years, however the GOP growth rates are improving thus projecting a declining elasticity ratio. The
same is also corroborated by IEP reporl.
The energy consumption growth rates of other countries are similar to generation growth as the
T&D losses in these countries have been quite stable. The Indian Electricity Sector is suffering from high
T&0 losses on account of poor infrastructure and unaccounted losses there by strangulating the actual
energy available for end use consumption. The electricity consumption is the driver for the GOP growth
and, therefore, for the purpose of working out electricity growth rates electricity consumption data has
been considered from the past. For future projection the energy requirement has been worked out based on
the various T&O loss reduction targets assessed in consultation with the StatefUTs.
A general review of growth of consumption and GDP of developed and developing economies is
given in the table below:
GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF soMEo
.
,
CountrylEconomies
30 Years CAGR of Electricity
i
Consumptinn ( % ) (1971-2001)
-

--

-R ECONOMlliS
30 years CAGR of GDP
( %) (1971-2001)

China

8.17

8.19

Korea

12.1

7.36

Brazil

4.58

3.95

Africa

5.38

2.51

Middle East

9.96

1.61

OECD Pacific

4.25

3.36

3.15

2.97

OECD Countries
(Data Source: lEA Publications/website)

A list of countries besides above achieved higher rate of 810% growth and developed countries
that have a growth of less than 4% in electricity consumption during past 30 years period from 1971 to
2001 is given in the table below:
- _GROW~THOF ELECTRlCITY>CONSUMPTION IN SOME 9T~ COUNTRlliS
: Country"NAme _
30 Years CAGR of Electricity
;- __
Consumption ( % ) jI9n-2001)
8.00
Egypt
12.58
10.39
10.67
14.95
9.08
19.18
8.22
4.51
2.87
3.03
1.41

Indonesia
M::laysia
Thailand
S.Arabia
Iran

U.A.E.
Hongkong
Argentina

OECO Europe
Nurth America

Former USSR
\Dnta Source: lEA PublicationsJ\\lebsite)

51

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

"'''~'E
!~'i

The time trend in various countries is exhibiting reduction in the energy consumption growth rates
over the years. China experienced a growth of about 8.2% in electricity consumption and 8.18% average
growth in GDP over the last three decades during 1971-2000. Similarly, Korea has experienced electricity
growth of 12.1% over thc last 30 years vis-a-vis GDP growth of 7.36%. Developed countries in OECD
had electricity growth rate of 3.08% during 1971-2001. The electricity consumption & generation in India
grew by 6.87% & 7.47% respectively for last thirty years 1974-2005 and the corresponding GDP growth
had been 5.4%.
It is expected that after sustaining high GDP growth for over 15 years, the GDP growth would
stabilize with induction of new technologies and high value addition industries. The elasticity ratio of
electricity growth and GDP growth is expected to further improve from 0.95 to 0.78 beyond 13th Plan
period as per the Rcport of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) of the Planning
Commission. (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para 6)
Taking clue from the foregoing, the electrical energy consumption has been assumed to increase at
a CAGR of 10% upto 20]2 as worked out and 9% upto 2022. This growth in electricity consumption is
expected to support an average GDP growth of 9-11 % over the period of forecast. The GDP growth
expectations are based on the electricity growth and elasticity projections in IEP Report (2006) by
Planning Commission.
The long term demand of electrical energy requirement at the power station bus bars for the year
2016-2017 and 2021-2022 are projected to be 1392 TWh and 1914 TWh (Tera Watt Hours) respectively.
To meet above cnergy dcmand, the corresponding gencrating installed capacity would be about 300 GW
and 410 GW (Giga Watts) respectively. The Plan wise projections upto 2021-2022 are given in Table 2.3.
-

Title

_:

Total EEC-U(Alllndia):GWh

755847

1133749

1593266

EER at Bus Bars-CiWh

968659

1392066

191450X

152746

218209

______

______

APEL in MW

f---

----

Integrated Energy Policy Report :


Elasticity Ratio

0.95

CAGR W.Lt. 2004-05 EEC

10.07

Feasihle GUP Growth (CAGR


cIeey. consumption / elasticity
ratio)

10.60

State-wise details are available in Table 2.3.

Chapter II: Summary and Review

52

298253
0.X5

9.39

8.69
10.23

~~""W-~VJf/
Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 2.3
Long Term Forecast at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)
State

Electrical.Energy

Requirement

2011 -2012 2016 - 2017


Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandigarh

(GWh)

2021-2022

Peak Eleotrlo Load (MW)

2011 -2012 20162017

20212022

36293
38417
9504
11202
60489
48916
79268
8445
2308

52762
54305
13136
15272
82572
67767
110665
11668
3367

73481
73838
17657
21283
107342
92377
150157
16191
4440

6092
6839
1611
2063
11000
8482
13947
1533
420

8729
9375
2194
2790
14441
11404
19623
2085
602

12069
12557
2907
3857
18352
15101
26834
2849
782

Sub Total (NR)

294841

411513

556768

48137

66583

89913

Goa
Guarat
Chhattisaarh
Madhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

4583
85445
21785
49338
125661
5042
3005

6880
119083
33076
70445
167227
8204
4890

9082
156842
45116
98987
219910
12243
7842

721
14374
3565
8462
21954
778
552

1083
19670
5375
11772
28348
1266
857

1429
25447
7279
16129
35944
1889
1324

Sub Total (WRI

294860

409805

550022

47108

64349

84778

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

89032
53540
19230
87222
4419

132118
79996
26332
134755
6868

175590
107471
36134
182825
9639

14721
8826
3528
14224
683

21845
13092
4574
21976
1061

28216
17464
5916
29815
1489

253443

380068

511659

40367

60433

80485

19905
23408
27149
41020
320

32857
36274
39096
60228
487

58248
51741
63098
84499
629

3607
4296
4459
7407
83

5598
6604
6330
10743
120

9567
9129
10074
15072
150

111802

168942

258216

19088

28401

42712

7585
932
2101
698
1229
386
398

13053
1360
2778
1040
1761
557
595

24433
2337
4015
1505
3180
762
764

1443
203
428
152
282
116
115

2292
270
542
222
387
148
162

3985
445
751
319
666
189
196

13329

21143

36997

2537

3760

6180

344
40
968659

537
58
1392066

779
68
1914508

77
11
152746

119
17
218209

132
19
298253

Sub Total

SR

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Benoal
Sikkim
Sub Total IERI
Assam
Manipur
Mechalava
Naqaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram
Sub Total (NERI
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
Total (All India)

53

Chapter

I J SUIllnl<lry and R<.:vit.:\\

1,100,000

Chart 2.1(A)
All India: Energy Requirement (GWH)

---

1,0'00,000

~_::: 1------~~-----~-~------~~------~~..--~~-----"-.
!""""

.. ---~~

areOO,OOO

~~

~
t 500,000

~'-~~----

----.----

=
r..l

400,000

300,000

200 000
-+-ACluaIAvi.
__
Estimated

1998-99

1999-00

420,315

450,744

I
I

2000-01-

2O?1-02
~-

467,568

483,520

L.

200~-=-0412004-05
I

497,769

---'

Actual Av!.

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007-08

2006 - 09

654603

697961

744515

794561

602787

Shortage

2009-10

2010 -11

2011-12

524.2991559.684

. 848390
~!16

Estimated

968659

.-.

Chart 2.1(B)
Alllndia: Peak Demand (MW)

160000 .
150000
140000
,...j

30000

~ 20000
~

=~

10000

"

Q
V>
V>

~ 00000

"

!l.

90000
80000
70000
60000

1998 - 11999 - I 2000 - . 2001 - 2002 - , 2003 I 99 . 00 . 0~~!_0~_04

2004 - , 2005 - . 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - I 2009 - 2010 - . 2011 05 I 06 ! 07 ! 08 I 09 ! 10--1...2.i


I
12..j

!-- Actual met 63691 I 67880 I 71262 I 71547 I 75066 I 75842 " 80189 I
I
I
! Estimated ~I
~__
I _'~ __ L
._' ..
90221 I 97269 QCl486711l3~
!

Actual met

_----r

Shortage

!'

,
12l.891I 131413.h41679 :152,7461

Estimated

=
Chart 2.2(A)
Northern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)
330,000

280,000

S?
~
8
E
tt)
S
d.l

--~-j

230,000

,"&

II,

d.l

,.,
~

180,000

~_~~ __

~__

~__

........fl:-_,

'

..

._1

I
I
I

d.l

'"

130,000

80,000

[Actual Avl.

1998~99

1999~00 2000~01 2001-02

122,492

131,OlJ

134,824

141,948

2oo2~03 2003-04

2004-05

146,500

165,350

154,533

181203

Estimated

Actual AvI.

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2oo8~09 2009' 10 2010-11

2011-12

195359

209137

223928

239807

294,841

Shortage

256859

275171

Estimated

Chart 2.2(B)
Northern Region: Peak Demand (MW)
55,000

50,000

45,000

~ 40,000

:::

35,000

""e=o
V>

-.l

30,000

.:.:eo

&:

25,000

20,000

15,000 '

10000
,-

1998-99

I 17.876
~";m",ed_I
-'

IAClU,1met

Co

<

1999- 00' 2000, Oil 2001 - 02 2002 - 03 eo<.2003'


04! 2004,05
18,882. 1_19.860 . 21,346

L_.l __,.J.__

Actual met

2005 - 0T006

--'-__

.l..E.759

30030...1 32487

Shortaae

_I

- 07 2007,08.2008

J.21.889J 2243U 25,050 I

35145

- 09 2009 - 10! 2010 :.1.1-+2~2J

~--I---L-..2802~113!--',""""~8.132J

Estimated

--Chart 2.3(A)
Western Region: Energy Kequirement

(GWH)

320000

I
220000

~-

170000

120000

70000
1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

ActualAvl. 106807

116518

121617

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10


132217
223054

Estimated

233486

244481

"

~
~
~

256075 268307

it'
Actual Avl.

s0

Shortage

~
h
~
'3'
0

'~'

9/

""

Chart 2.3(B)
Western Region: Peak Demand (MW)
50,000
45,000 ~------'--~------'

40,000

6
'0

35,000

1--- -- ---,--,---,---

-----'-,-,-------

I1.,

-----_

"s

v.
'-0

"

I"
Cl

30,000---------

""

"

"'" 25,000 ----

--------,--,-

---,,-----

----------~---~-~

~
20,000 ---

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.4 (A)


Southern Region: Energy Requirement

280000

(GWH)

---------------------------.--.----------.--..
---.-------------------------------------------1

260000 --------

------

-----------~---------------------____J

---Ii

240000

220000

~".
0',
0

-----~---i

200000

-I

180000

~
f<1

160000

-----j

i
--------i

140000

--------(

120000

---I

100000
80000
1998-99 . 1999-oo! 2000-01 2001-02. 2002-03 2003-04
Actual Avl.

108005

120594

127156

131144

134544

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

137740
163710

Estimated

_ Actual Avl.

Shortage

176037

189312

203606

219001

235582

Estimated

253443!

Chart 2.4(B)
Southern Region: Peak Demand (MW)

45,000

40,000

~5,000

::s~
"0
=e 30,000
"

.:.:

""

!l. 25,000

20,000

,<

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

=
Chart 2.5(A)
Eastern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)

?:

e-

90000

,e

--------~

80000

0-

>'"~
c

a:

70000

______

50000

..

4000(1
_______

199899 1999-00_1'
2000-01_ 2001-0~~02-03.

l:~Actual AVI.[ 43900

, 456~9 ,~~8

~~stim~_

Actual Avl.

50597 _j.~094!

L-_~

, 20.11-12

~003-04120~~-05~~05-06
54977

---.l

59015 '

L~O~, 64498 I
YEAR
Shortage

70547

n221

84601

101805

Estimated

111802

at

"

S
()

~
0

;;r

rn

iiO

Chart 2.5(8)
Eastern Region: Peak Demand

Q
0
0

~
p

18500

---~-~-~---~~----~---

16500

"c

14500

0\

'"

2:

"

12500

-------------------

---------

--- -

-"----

---

---

-------

0.

/
--- .7---~~-------~----~

10500

8500

------------------

------.----

------

-------------~-------------

-------

--------

6500
r.......-Actualmet
',
EstImated

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

c
S'
a
,

"

Chart 2.6(A)
North Eastern Region: Energy Requirement
14500 r--------------------------

- -------.---

"_

..

(GWH)

_---"_.,~"-_._..._. __ ._.--~_.."._ ........ _-, .. _ .. ."-_.~_._..-_ .... __ ...._,._--,--- ...-_,~..._--" ..-....-._-----]


,

i
13500 --------12500
11500

-----

--

---

----

----------

---------------------

---

-----1

-------------------------

- ---- - - ----- - - - - --- - -- ------------------------

---- - --j

-------"!

10500

---------- - -- ---

9500

-----------------i

i
i

-----~- ----------------J
- - ---------------------------j

1998.991999-002000-01 2001-022002'032003-04
5104

Actual A vI.

5432

5855

6195

6288

2004'05 2005-'08 2008-07 2007-08

2010-_11.2011-12

6674

Shortage

Estimated

i
!

()

~
-->>,,-':,;i'i;"'~.

Chart 2.6(8)
..
North Eastern Region: Peak. Demand

_'1",.,,_'

j(;,::3~;1t.~i,j:'i-'.: , ----' ._----'-"---,_

_-_

..~,.,-_...

.... _._._.- ...

i&"

'<,

_.~-------_.__ __ ._,-~~-

_.,-._~-~-_.---"_."-

rn

-I
i
~

I,

---1

------------------1

i,

1200
-------

1000
800
r~'--

--

- --------------1

i
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 200+05 2005-06 2006-'07 2007-08 2008'09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
862

932

1043

1055

1119

1219

1~28
1272

""'*""' Estimated,

1404

. YEAR:

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

'"

"B:
'"c
"S-

'"

Chandigarh:

Chart 2.7(A)
Energy Requirement

(GWH)

2,500
2,300
2,100 .-.-.-.

--.

1,900 --.---.,----.------------.--

..----.--

1,700

e~ 1,500
r.J

1,300
1,100 -

--

-'

-.-.-------

900
700-------

--

-.--.--.-.-.---.--.----

500

'1998-99
Actual AvI.

922

1999-00 2000-0 I 2001-021 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
960

967

Estimated

997

i
..l..

Actual AvL

1.059

1.087

1.286
1295
Shortage

1407

1528

1659

1802

1957

Estimated

2125

2.308

Chart 2.7(B)
Chandigarh: Peak Demand (MW)
450

400

350

--.--------.--~--.--.-------

.__ J

.--.-------

I
I

300 -------

-.----------~

.. -----.

--~-

i
J
i

.. ---.--

250

Actual met

..

II

.-_~w

-----, I

._._

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.8(A)
Delhi: Energy Requirement (GWH)
40,000

35,000

--------~

----------------

------------

---'

--------

---

-------------------

---

I
I

,..;30,000

~
~

--J

I"i

r.l25,000

--------l

20,000

15,000

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009"10 2010-11 2011-12
Actual Avl.

16,184

17,141

17,667

18,741

19,567

20,160

20,952

21157

Estimated

Actual Avl.

22853

Shortalle

24684

26662

28799

31107

Estimated

.33600

36,293

II

Chart 2.8(B)
Delhi: Peak Demand(MW)
6,500'm",--,-,---,-",.--,,

"_,,

__
.,, .m,,,,

__",m

'w_,

6,000
5,500

5,000

6
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500

2,000

1998,
99

I'

1999, 2000, I 2001, 12002, 2003--' 2004-1200S -12006 --I 2007-12008J- 2009--12010-1201100 ' 01 ,02
03 1 04
OS 1 06 1 07 ' 08 I 09
10 I II I 12 1
I

-,--~-r----,,-

--+----1-

'--1- - ~----,-----

IActual met 1~484-+-2,498+__2,67.<J..Ll,87~


3,101-L32.8<J.I~SSst_[Estimated_i __

L_

..J __

Actual met

~' __

J.

36~
Shortage

390S G20S

--L':
1

,'----,

---~--,

' __

! 4S29l4872...U2s3j.2IJS7l6,On

Estimated

"j

Chart 2.9(A)
Haryana: Energy Reqnirement
45,000

(GWH)

------------------------

40,000 --------------

---------------~

-------------

35,000

30,000

e. 25.000
~

r-l

20,000

15,000

10,000

------------

----

5,000

--

Actual A vI.

Est:mated

1998-99

199900

200001

200102

200203

200304

200405

13,808

15,578

16.793

17.839

19.688

19,779

20.562
21801

Actual Avl.

2005-

200607

200708

2008-

09

200910

2010-

06

11

201112

23890

25858

27989

30295

32791

35493

38,417

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.9(B)

Haryana: Peak Demand (MW)


8,000

7,000

8,000

6
5,000

4,000

3,000

2007 - 2008 -12009 - 2010 - i 2011 - ,


~~.
10j
11 i 121

1--+-l-t-;;--1-~
i 5060 ~56
I 5883 . 6343 I 6,832J

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.10(A)
Himachal Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

--'-.-----.----------,

10,000
9,000

'.---- ..." ..

~--~-

----!

!
!

I
1
-

.1

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12


6909

Shortage

7684

8545

Estimated

9,504

Chart 2.10(B)

Himachal Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)


1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

Annal met

Shortag:e

Estimated

=
Chart 2.l1(A)
Jammu & Kashmir: Energy Requirement(GWH)
11,800

10,800

I,
I
I

9,800------

-.--

=:s:

8,800

=ir.1

7,800

I,
6,800

5,800

I
4,800

Actual A vI.

199899

199900

200001

200102

200203

200304

200405

5,429

4,979

5,375

5,606

6,317

6,780

7,387
8138

Estimated

Actual Avl.

Shortage

2005-

200607

2007-

2008-

2011-

08

09

200910

2010-

06

11

12

9450

9722

10001

10289

10585

10889 11,202

Estimated

Jammu

Chart 2.11(B)
& Kashmir: Peak Demand (MW)

2,300

2,100
1,900

::::

I
1,500 ~

1,300

'"

V>

~
"

!
1,700

6
""
0:
Ei
"

.....,

I
I

1,100

"

'.

--+

300 ~--'-~-------'--'----'

,
i,
~
j

700'--~--"---'~
500

, 1998,
I
99

---

'-, ,':--t,

1999,
00,
n._

2000,,2001,'
01 I 02
'-----,~-'

-+- Actual met I 941


1,004
974:
t----- .... ------+-- ..---- ---~------ti----Estimated
'_

-'-n

"

'

Actual met

999
--,

'

2002, i 2003 2004, 2005,


03 , 04 ' 05 , 06
--

2006, , 2007, , 2008 i 2009, 12010, . 2011 'I


07 I 08 I 09 ' 10 ' 11
12 "
1

"-~-+--'I-

;_m'~_

1,060,

i
1

1,218 '. 1,166


-:-----

__ .'...

--T------

1---'

,
-.

~6_11600i~9
Shortage

'-,-~-C-'~~
I'
~----

.....

~7~U

. ---

1~

~-'~---'--'I

~-.-+_-----:-~-

l,J8~~

1977 ,,].,0<i3.1

Estimated

Chart 2.12(A)
Punjab: Energy Requirement (GWH)
67,000

62,000
67,000

-~-~~

-------

--~-~--

s=-

a:

----j

52,000

________

47,000-

~
Il:l 42,000

r.i

II

37,000

32,000

I
27,000

22,000

1998-

99

199900

200001

200102

200203

2003-

2004-

04

05

200506

200607

200708

200809

200910

201011

201112

38642

41639

44868

48347

52096

56136 60,489

Actual Av!. 24,385 26,286 26,923 28,066 ' 28,333 30,520 32,851
35861

Estimated

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.12(B)
Punjah: Peak Demand (MW)
-------~----------~-_.

12,000

__
._...
- -'-_'.,-,
..
_--~--~
.....~_.,_.,----,_._.
__
._---"'.._
.._-------_.

__ ._--------'.---------------.!

,
1

.--1

11,000

-j

10,000

!
9,000

~----.--------.--_.--.

8000

7:000

----.

'-'~'~--rY'-

1-

6,000

5,000

4,000

I 1998-

i 2000 - I 2001 - i 2002 - I 2003 - . 2004 - i 2005 - I 2006- I 2007 - I 2008 - i 2009 - I 2010- I 2011 - 1
'

1999-

I.:---j-

99~_OOJ
_01
I 02 -l__
O~L,(),~1_~-IActual met) 4,42.l._W'<129+-4,90~i 4,936..L.5,455j ~622.l6,~_

~mate<l..L-

_....J __

Actual met

L__
!

__

-'-

06

.J_02...l . ....Cls....L09_1_10
1 __

1__

-~~-f_1~J
L __

-1--

7~os..L~~16..L8451....!~908J.

9390

Shortage

t-__

l. 98991.104~El,00ol

Estimated

Chart 2.13(A)
Rajasthan: Energy Requirement (GWH)
51,000

-I

46,000

-I

41,000

i,

~
~
~

"

----~--~-

36,000

--- ---

- --i

r:li
r.i

00

31,000

I
26,000

--.-----~-----.--.

--------------------~

I
21,000

]998-1 ]99999
00

'r

2000- 200]0]
02

2002- . 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006-1 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 20]]03
04'
05
06
07 I 08 . 09
]0
]]
]2

IActuaJ Avl. 22,6]7123,665 24,]44 24,2712,942126,570130,]59

L_l_

IEstima~tec!._L_-------1-_

Actual A vI.

..J __

_~

~J30392 I 32530 ! 348]9


Shorta2"c

37268 39890 42697~570]

Estimated

48,9]6

Chart 2.13(B)
Rajasthan: Peak Demand (MW)
9,000

8,000

:::

7,000

:;::
~

-e

=
"e

6,000

"
~
--.J

'"

""

'"

5,000

4,000

3.000

Actual met
Estimated

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

=
Chart 2.14(A)
Uttar Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)
90,000

80,000

--~-~--

----,I

70,000

60,000

-------

-----i

~
~

50,000

r.i
ex

40,000

o
30,000

.---

-- .. -----".--

:;..--

---+--

--

~~------_

-\

~------

II

--~-~

-- ----

.. -

Ii

i
20,000

----~--_._-,-------_.

__ ._._---_. --

,
i

---.----

10,000

199899

199900

200001

200102

200203

200304

200405

Actual Avl. 36,144

37,129

37,493

39,785

38,326

41,424

42,581
53033

Estimated

Actual Avl.

200506

200607

200708

200809

200910

201011

201112

56167

59486

63002

66725

70668

74845

79,268

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.14(8)
Uttar Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)
16,000

.---.--

.. -.- ..-.-.-

---------1

"""-'--.-.

14,000

12,000

10,000

00

8,000

--.

6,000

~~_

..

4,000'

. 1998- 1999-12000 - ,2001 12002 . 2003 -12004.

,--__.I.~~o_-.~f~'
11\ctualmet.5,1895,525.~5,641-+-?,990
!,:stimatedl_l_

"

._
Actual met

03

Lo~~~I~~_._09

15,750 16,0291

.....
_' ... ....J..

2005 2006 2007 '12008 -12009 - 2010 .. 2011 -.

._!_.

6,44~

....

i~57J....8.71~
Shortage

_ .._'

__

942UI0193

"~""~~W
1- r ....1.... __ .'

: 1I02"JJ.l923J..1.2.896113,947j

Estimated

Chart 2.15(A)
Uttaranchal: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)
9,000

8,000

7,000

s
::

~
~

6,000--

5,000

... -.--------.

00
IV

4,000

3,000

2,000

1999- ] 2000-;
01
00

199899

2,250

Actual A v!.

2001-,
02

2,384 f,245

200203

200304

200405

3,808

4,197

4,852

Estimated

-1

Actual Avl.

5010
Shortage

200506

5398

200607

5816

200910

6267

6752

7275
Estimated

201011

2011- .
12

8,445

Chart 2.15(B)
Uttaranchal: Peak Demand (MW)
1.600

1,400

1.200

1.000 -~--.--.
00

800.--.----

600 .-

--

...
--

..
-

~- ...
-

~- --

.-~.-.-

..-

n_.

..

Actual met

Shortaee

Estimated

Chart 2.16(A)
Goa: Energy Reqnirement

(GWH)

----~-=---- ~==~=-=:----- __==:=-__

::::[h__
38001--------

----

---

----

-------1

-----i

- ---------------------------

33001---------

------l

--------

::::r ------_--_-___~~~_--.

-_-_-------1

------,

1800

1300

I------

--------

800

1998-991
IActual Avl.

1465

1999: 00
1314

1525

Actual AvL

2001-

2003-

02

03

1772

!Estimated

200001

2002-

1845

2004-

2005-

04

05

06

1979

2323

2323

Shortage

200607

2007-

200809

200910

201011

08

2821

3108

3425

3774

4159

201112

I
2560

Estimated

; 4583

Chart 2.16(B)
Goa: Peak Demand (MW)
750

------.----'-------.'"'

..

~,---

,- ..-".- " -----,--

~
650

,
iI

II
i

ESO

i------------------

450

-t---

350

250

,
I
\

150

1998- I 1999--"-99

Actual met
IEstimated_1
I

2000- I 2001 -I

2002-

2003-

1 2004- I 2005- I 2006- I 2007- I 2008- ! 2009- I 2010-

OOr,<Jl~:-~L.'l3.-~~-~--i--~

240 I 253 +~~~~+-23~337


__
..l......._.J._--..-l __ ~ __

Actual met

1_385_L
-'--__

07
1

L2.8~--'-42.z..L 4611
Shortage

08

I
504 L551

09

10

---1--

11

6031660

Estimated

2011- I

12
__

: 721

J
.

90000

Charat 2.17(A)
Gujarat: Energy Requirement (GWH)
--------------------------------------

-----

80000

~_u

------

70000

-----------.-.-------

-------------

60000 --

--

--------

----

--1

--- ------

50000 -----------------

40000

----------------------

------.-----_.~

30000

20000

199899
Actual A vI.
Estimated

i
I
;

1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201105
07
10
11
12
00
01
02
03
04
06
08
09
!

40832 44285 46787 46175 48162 50292 53167


60124 63220 66475 69898 73497 77282 81261 85445

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.17 (B)


Gujarat: Peak Demand (MW)

14,500

12,500

'"=

10,500

...:'"
Q

'"

Il.

8,500

-+

6,500

~.

4,500
Actual met I

IEstimated

1998 -99

199900

2000-01

2001-02

2002- 03

2003 -04

5,877

5,962

6,905

6,700

7.336

7,204

---"-------

2004-05

2005 - 06

20~. 07

10736

1]271

7~~

]0226

I 2007 - 08
I

1]833

I 2010-1]

2011-12

130421\3692

14,374

2008-09 " 2009-10

12422

A~rll~lmet

E tim!'ltp.rl

Chart 2.18(A)
Madhya Pradesh: Energy Requirement (GWH)

-~----------_.-

50000

-.--------------------------.---,

45000

~OOOO

~
.!!l5000

g.

00
00

~
0:
~

1110000

'"

25000

20000

15000

1999-00 2000-01

1998-99
24675

Actual Avl.

25389

25365

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

19386

26493

27171

29401

--.1.

Estimated

Actual A vI.

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

36920

38748

40666

42680

44793

34114

Shortage

2010-11

2011-12

47011

49338

Estimated

Chart 2.18 (B)


Madhya Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

._--,,

9,500

8,500

7,500 .

E.
'"=
S

6,500

~
""

5,500

..

4,500

3,500 .

2,500
11998'11999,,2000,
2001,'12002'12003,.
00 1 01 I 02
IActual met1 3,558 3,5821 3,951 . 3,298 _~~
4.800

L....2~

~mateU_--.L__ -r--_..

Actual met

2004'12005'12006'12~7',

2008'12009,',2,010'12,011',1

+~_~J 05 ' O~,~~L...oW.....lJ9.--L~l.._II_ .. E....,I


4,846 r--c-+--_+__ 1_ .
i- 5944...L6650-.1..692317206 \?sOl 'c..2Il~_812!!.....1 8,46U

==_i_,_i_.

Shortage

'

Estimated

Chhattisgarh:

Chart 2.19(A)
Energy Reqnirement

(G WH)

23000

I
21000

~
19000

,
I

-i

17000

II

-----,,

15000

~
~
r.i

13000

11000
9000
7000
5000

Actual Avl..

1998-99

1:9-[

200001

200102

8670

9154

9382

6847

Estimated

200405

2002- ,
03
9561

! 11556
i

Actual Avl.

200607

200708

200910

I
I

11750

Shorn"e

14377

15623

18448

Estimated

Chart 2.19(B)
Chhattisgarh: Peak Demand (MW)
4,000

3,500

3,000

."C

=e
~
"

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

'1998-99' 1999-

_I
fActual met

!,212W226

2000-

2001- 1 2002-

2003- 1 2004-

2005-

Actual met

.--L_ --"_.

2006-

2007-

1893-.1'2'150

Shortage

2010- 1 2011-

2008-

f- ~ +-~-,--_()8_j

T- 02 _ ~
~ 04_
Os....
_1_1,329.
__ 1,159.n 1,492 . 1,569 11,749

09

10 ~

11

_1. 2339J.}545

-27691 3012

3277

Estimated

11~
I

3,565l

Maharashtra:

Chart 2.20 (A)


Energy Requirement

(GWH)

140000

120000

100000

"

'0

80000

""-"~--"--

---"

~
.;

IV

60000

40000

20000

~Vl.:

1"'8_99-00 I
63220

69344

1_

2000-01
71382

,Estiffintedl

..L

Actual AvI.

200 1-02
73934

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

103200

106643

110201

113878

117678

121604

125661

82043
93217

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.20(B)
Maharashtra: Peak Demand (MW)

----------------,

23,000

I
I

21,000

19,000

e:

17,000

'"

15,000

<=l

""Ii

13,000

"""

11,000

'D

It

I
I

9,000

I,

,,
,

7.000

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.21(A)

Dadra

5500

& Nagar
----- --- ,---~---

~'---'--,--,-,---~-----

5000 --

---

Haveli: Energy Requirement (GWH)


--' -----------~---------------------------~----------~------,----

--

4500
4000
3500

--

--

---

3000--2500

--'

----

------

----,

-------,--

---

--

--

----,-,-

'----------~'----,

------

2000

'------..

1500

1000
500

199899
Actual AvI.
,Estima~_

697

1999- 2000-1 2001-1 200200


m
moo

955

'

1~

1099

, L__
'

Actual AvL

2003-[ 2004- i 2005-1 2006M


MM'm

i 1504

1821:

L __
,_I

__

2007-

200809

200910

201011

201112

3580

4013

4498

5042

-~-L

2105
,2105 ,2542'
Shortage

2849 ' 3194

Estimated

Chart 2.21 (B)


Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Peak Demand (MW)

--l

900

800

700

600

'8

"a

500

"

Q
\0

en

400

"

ll.

300
200
i
100

1998-: 1999-120001_ -

L 1III

ItstlmztC<G
=

2004-'2005-12006-12007-12008-

t....<J~1._

"2009-! 2010-,2011-'

__03_ L04 __
~~.J..rY7.-+""O~L_09_'
_IO""~~E._
130-, __171.. '-190 -'- 201 .1_.3i5 __ _391. -'- __
.1. __
I
1
6
'
..1_
. 391
431J
4"7~ _.22~ .L579.l~9_!_7~
~ 778..J

__99_~0~L

Actual met

i 2001-'2002-12003-;

Actual met

~I-j~2_'I

Shortage

.J--t-----L- _1

'

Estimated

=
Chart 2.22(A)
Daman & Din: Energy Requirement (GWH)

--- .'.---'--~

~_.----..
----.-------,
..
,.. ----.---.--~------~.----..
--..
~--~--.---.-,'.----,'--'-----1

.
3000

------

------~.-.-------.-.

__ .. -- ..-------

...--.--------

..---.-

..--.-~--------

-.~

2500 ----

---

- -

--

2000 ----------------

-- -

--

------

------

------

1500 ---------

----

----

-----------

500

Actual Avl.

592

1999- 200001
00
620

800

...-J_.l

]Estimated

717

200102

Actual Avl.

-------.----------j

1000

199899

---

___

200203

2003- I 200404
05

200506

200607

200708

200809

200910

966

1l()~_t_~1186
. 1186

1382 . 1573

1790

2038

2319 I 2640

____

...--1.-_

Shortage

----i

2010- . 201111 I 12

Estimated

3005

Chart 2.22(B)
Daman & Din: Peak Demand (MW)

500---

400

-'-

-.--------

.. -.-.-.

5
""=

'E"

'"

.:.:

'"
'"

300

_m

_.

__

__

2001-----

__

._

mm

m_~

1001--~-

oL
-----l-

199R99
--

ActuaJll1etL~04

]999 00

-----

__

1 05

2000 01

2001 - ' 200202


03

"- ---- ---! ---

lOR

140

170

2003 04

2004 -

190

223

05

2005 06

2006 07

2007 08

254

2R9

329

2009 - I 2010 - 2011 ,


10 ~, 11 I, 12
---1
-+---

223

!Estimated

Actual met

Shortage

374
~

---i----

426'

485

Estimated

i
:
,

--1---

----~

552

Chart 2.23(A)
Andhra Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement

90000

----------.-

--

80000 ---------

--.--

70000

-----.--,-.--'--.-.-----.----

60000

--------.----

(GWH)

---------,--,-----.

------.-.----.

50000
40000
30000
20000

Actual AvL

1998-99

199900

200001

200102

200203

2003,
04

38787

43695

44685

44890

45788

45916

2004,
05

Actual A v!.

. 200506

200607

200708

2008- . 200910
09

201011

201112

54683

59311

64331

69775

75680

. 82085

89032

48573
48928

Estimated

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.23(B)
Andhra Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)
17,000

15,000

13,000

'"=

11 ,000

"

Cl
..:.:

"

9,000 ------.----

-----------

""

7,000

----

.. --.

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

'"
'0

Karnalaka
?,

CharI2.24(A)
: Energy Reqniremenl

(GWH)

63000

Ii
\

53000

~
~

i =-:;:
.~.

I s~
0
0

13000

3000

_~

._,._'_.

" __

I
1

1999-

2000-

I',

-.-.--f---+--~-~
22739+261()5_f_37685

L_,..J

LEstimate<f.~I

h998-99

~ctua~vIj

__ .

Actual AvI.

!
I

2001-.,
02

2002200320042005- I 200603 . 04 , 05
~~
I',

29058129541
I

I 3l3~7
I

I 3368U
135157

37334

Shortage

._

200708

2008- 2009-1201009 [ 10 . 11

--1- I -L-'

39646

42101 I 44709

47477

"

201112

50417 I 53540

Estimated

Chart 2.24(B)
Karnataka: Peak Demand (MW)
9,500 -

8,500

7,500

"="e

6,500

CI

'It""

5,500

4,500

-..-"

.... ....-

,,"

3,500 .
,.

1998-'1999-'
,99
00
._._
..

2000-'
01,

li\ctu~met

'.J,226....'l,881 __ <l,371_~4,42!. !_4,~5_'1,~5_,_

,Es,timated

'

~.

__

'

._.

"

..L__

Actual met

200102

2002-,2003.03 . .' _,- 04,


__

.__

2004-,2005-'
2006-'2007-'
05 ' ' _06 .. , 07 .__ , 08
..

2008-'
,09
--1-

.~

5,612..:....__
'- __ '__
-,- __
',5928
6275'
6642 i 7031 I 7442

. __

Shorta!e

----'--

__

200910 .

L __,
7877

2010-,2011II .__
12

i
._.

,__ ~

8338 ' 8,826 '

__

..._...

Estimated

.. __

Chart 2.25(A)
Kerala: Energy Requirement (GWH)

19000

~----

18000 --

--.-.--~--

.-~---~-

17000 --------

-.----~~---.---~--~-.
-~~-~

----~-~-

~----~-~-~--~--

..-

..-

-------~-.
.---~-~-~

16000 ----~------------~-----15000

o
N

-----~-

14000 ----~---13000 -----

----~--.-~~
-~---~--

12000
11000

2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201106


07
08
09
10
11
12
13760 14549 15384 16266 17200 18186 19230

Actual AvL

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.25 (B)


Kerala: Peak Demand (MW)

3,500

3,000

'l:l

o
w

=
"e

2,500

l.

2,000

1,500

1,000

11998 , 99

IActual m~~2.169
'EstimateU

=:

1999 - , 2000 - 1 2001 - I 2002 - 1 2003 -12004 - 12005 - 2006 00 " 01 , 02 , 03 . 04 , 05 " 06 1 07
,------1----r-~
I---+-'
1 2.331 I 2,189 I 2,347 , 2,427 . 2,421 I
1
I'

I, . __

Actual met

,,_.----.-l __

L-...----L

2452
Shortage

2650

2779

I,
I'

2007 - I 2008 08 . 09

2915

I
1

2009 10

2010 I

II

3058 !320713364

Estimated

'

2011 12

=----j

3,528

Chart 2.26 (A)


Tamil Nadu: Energy Reqnirement

(GWH)

100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000

1998-99
Actual Avl.

34074

00

200001

2001200202 i 03

37464

4069~

428521 4475~-L~450

1999-

Estimated

200304,

---L~I_~~_.1~1449~

Actual Avl.

I
I

200405

200506

200607

200708

200809

51147 ,__
55479 T59824 64510 , 69563
Shortage

200910

,~,
75011

201011

201112

I 80886

8722~

Estimated

Chart 2.26 (8)


Tamil Nadu: Peak Demand (MW)
16,000

14,000

12,000

-------.--.--

..-.--.~---

.. -----~

-----------~

..

.--------~--

10,000

o
v.

,,

..

8,000

6,000

4,000

11998 AC1ualmetJ

~;O;

I,

1999

5,~:0 _6,~~~6,~~

!Estimated'

2001- , 2002

-'- __

Actual met

:],~:3
...

2003
'7,~4

2008 '8,123
821~_

-;

..-.-1-

2009- ..2010 -

..
~ ...
09-LIO_~

2011

I~J..

12:

.._2~.2.<J....j
10090J....l...08071..t..l275_,
12398L_I328~14,224'

Shortage

~,

Estimated

Chart 2.27 (A)


Pondicherry: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

5000
4500
4000

:=e:

"~=i
r.>l

3500

3000
2500

0\

2000
1500

----~-....
--~.~.
~~~-~
~-~~~~-~--.
--~-.~~-~~_.~
..
--~-~.~--~~~-~~
.~~.----~~~---~-~~-~-..
-----~-~----.~-~~~~~~l
..-

.---1

Chart 2.27(B)
Pondicherry: Peak Demand (MW)
800

700

800

6
C

'"e

500

"

0
--.J

Q
.>Ii

400

'"
~
300

200

100

1998- 1999-I- 2000- -2001- 2002- -2003- I 2004- 2005- 2006- ; 2007-12008 - 2009- _2010- ; 2011- _
-I-

!Actual met _~~_L217


~imatedL---.l_

o~J~.
I ~8-tz82
..L
._L_. __._-

. 00.,

Actual met

~1~1-~~_~_09

226

~2~+2~+_-tA
347~~

Shortage

t----.L,

J 11 f--.~
.-=1 _..---i-"'-'I-'~
10

421----'-~~J..2.11J

563_,1_62(l_..:..
683

Estimated

=
Chart No:2.28(A) ". 0"
Bihar: Energy Requirement (GWH)

17000

. 15000

o
00

-ill-

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

6128

5888

5908

2004-05

2006'07

20b1-08

2008'09

2009'10,

2010-11

2011-12

8321.

9629

11134

12814'

14886

17213

19905

6115
7201

Estimated.

200506

YEAR

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

91

Chart 2.28(B)
Bihar: Peak Demand
4000

3500 -'-'---'--'---'--'---,

-.

3000 -,-----,

__

--'-'-

-/ .)"-~

----

--

/
,-,--L '

2500

-----,-

J"

...,-

--

,-'--

200102

200203

2003-04

1150

1325

788

. ActUal niet
Estimated

----.-,-.,
--- ,7/-- --'.-

j- -- -- -- -----

2000 ---

,-

--

--

2004-051,_2005.06
980

~06.0?

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

1881

2213

2605

3065

3607

---<
1154
Ll.358

__

1598

YEAR

Actual met

Shortage

~~

Estimated

Chart2:29(A) .
JhBrkhBnd: Energy Requirement (GWIl)

-----,

______ J

12000

1oo

----------------------

8000

-+- Actual
___

Avl.
E'3timateCl

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

9076

9391

10106

11057
11057

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

12308

13700

15249

16974

18894

21031

23408

YEAR

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.29(8)
Jharkhand: Peak Demand

-l

--

I
"I

----

-+- Actual

met

2001-02
1694 .

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

1807

1615

1991
1991

2222

,..+'EStimated;

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2480

2768

3089

3448

3548

4296

YEAR

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.30(A)
Orissa:
Energy Requirement
(GWH)
__._ . _......
". """_.
,,
U_"_._."
27000
25000
23000
21000 ---

..--

... -.----

... -.

19000..
17000
15000

~---

13000 ~-----------_._-~

..

11000

---

....--

-e..... __ .

"..

.""
__ .

9000
____
'. 1998-99, 1..999.00~0-01!.2001 ..02 . 20.02-03.1.~~3
.. O<\t.' ~04-0~ 2005-.06;.,.
2006~07l2007.08 2008-09 2~~9.1rl0-l1.l~()12~2.2.J
~_ 12483 : ~37s..~_13858
I_.
'
.. __
:

~m

. ted

.----"._1.._ .._ ...__I __

.L

13!l80L'5.37_1~ _16900.J...'El~82l 20431

J 2246.4

YEAR

Actual Avl .

Shortage

__

2<l.6~.U71~

Estimated

Chart 2.30(8)
OI1~!!!I: Peak Demand

5000

4500

4000

3500

------i

3000

I
I

--I

2500

i
i

-.--j

2000

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

-------

45000

Chart 2.31(A)
West Bengal: Energy Requirement (GWH)
_n

40000 ---------

----------

I
I

35000 ---------------------.--

---

--

-----

----

-~-~

I,

30000-----

.j>.

25000 -----.---

20000

--------

-~--

15000
-+-Actual

1_

2006-07 2007-08, 2008-09 2009-10 2010-"

Avl.
30084

Estimated I

2011-12

Actual AvL

Shortage

32009

34058

36238

38557

Estimated

41020

Chart 2.31.(B)
West Bengal: Peak Demand

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

j
I

5000

4500

::::-~--~-_
..
3000
,.

-j

Ac1ualmet I

:-.If- E"imate~

'998-~99-00~000.ll.'
3473

3649

j __

-~~~--I

399:l-1-

---j
! 200910

2001-0~1 2002-03 I 2003-04 I 2004-0512005-~~06-0712007.0612008.09


4094

4068

44~

L __ L _ -.L_----.L__

47?3

4723

~2010-11

I
5035

Actual met

Shortage

i 201,.,21 !
.

5367

5721

6099

6502

YEAR

Estimated

6931

I 7407

Chart 2.32(A)
Sikkim: Energy Requirement (GWH)
350

300 ~--

250 --_.~----~----_

.._----------

200

150 ~----

100
----

1998-99 1999-00 12000-01l2001-02', 2002-03 ~3-0412004-05'

Actual Avl. f-227


Estimated

132

'

133

"

1~!

r- ~

184

-;-'-,

2005-06' 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09' 2009-10: 2010-11 2011-12

204'
204

218

234'

247

284

285

305

YEAR

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

320

Chart 2.32(8)

Slkkim: Peak Demand

.--- .. --

90

..--.--)

I
80

70

!i'
~

."C

Be

-.....

t3

~
ll.
50

40

30
i-+-ActuaJ met
j' __

Estimated

84

Actual met

Shortage

67

71

76

Estimated

80

83

Chart 2.33(A)
Arunachal Pradesh :Energy Requirement (GWH)
400

JI

350

I,

300

250

200

i-j

150

I
100
-+-Actual

Avl.

199899

1999-00

2000-01

144

153.08

156.05

2004-05 . 2005-06
. 158.00
158.00

.......- Estimated

Actual Avl.

Shortage

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10'

2010-11

201112'

232.00

257.00

284

314.00

348.00

385.52

,
209.85

YEAR

II

Estimated

Chart 2.33(B)
Arunachal Pradesh: Peak Demand

120.00

110.00

100.00

i'

90.00

80.00

:il

70.00

-'0

c3

"-

60.00

50.00

~oo

i
'1998-9911999-00.

i::+-Actual met

"~Estimat~L_.

68.00

__

75.00

2000~i
. 80.00

2001~

2002-03: 2003~2004:~2005~_2006-~2007-~2008.0912009-10

1 94.00_-l-98.00~i~50.00

._~--L__ ._'
__

.----L- __

.L

, 62.00

IlL

f--

~~~

2010-11

81

_
87

i.

94

Actual met

Shortage

--T- ;

~----:;-_1~n011
1~~_~

YEAR
Estimated

2011-12

=
Chart 2.34(A)

.~s~.'l!"_:5.ner!!LflI!Clul!~m':.nt
(GWHL

8000

.__.

..

._. _

7000

6000 -------------------

5000

tv

4000

3000

2000

-+- Actual
__

Avl.

1998-99

1999-00 2000-01

2861

2964

3224

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

31n

3178

3164

Estimated

2004-05 2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

4618

5100

5632

6219

6868

7585

3810
3810

4182

YEAR

Actual AvL

- " _,"

Shortage

Estimated

/t5~.

~'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

r~

'C

c:

~E

ID

CIl

'"
'"

..

t:
o
.c

M.><
'

'"

UJ

CIl

t:D..

.c:

''""

<C

"'

c
..,.

c
c

'"

c
c

c
c

'"

c
c

"'

CMw) puewaa >tead

121

Chapter

II . Summary and Review

Chart 2.35(A)
Manipur:Energy Requirement (GWH)
1000

900

800

700

N
N

600

500

400

-+- Actual
.___

Avl.
Estimated

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

445

456

426

448

491

504

469

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

581

629

681

737

797

862

932

537

YEAR

tActual

Av1.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.35(8)
Manipur: Peak Demand
210

190

170

150

130

N
W

-------1

110

i,

;
I
I

90

I
70
~
__

Actual met
Estimated

1998-99 1999-00' 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
94

97

87

93

90

121

90

103

125

144

154

165

177

YEAR

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

189

203

'"""

::

'""3
3
"

'""

Chart 2.36(A)
Meghalaya: Energy Requirement (GWH)

0.

2200

'",,0

<

2000
1800

---------------

-----------

-----

1600

1400 ------

1200
1000

un

800

600

400

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 I 2003-04 2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
493

-+- Actual
__

Avl.
Estimated

583

595

j---

711

936

959

1195
1374

1460

1551

1648

1751

1860

1976

YEAR

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

2101

Chart 2.36(8)
Meghalaya: Peak Demand
475

425

375

,
3'

325

275

II

::!

'6'

"mE

N
V.

I,

.!
m
m

225

Q.

.----

175

I
I

--!
,

--""----,-----'------

125

Actual met

""",."~.

Shortage

--'---------------

-!

Estimated

Chart 2.37(A)
Mizoram: Energy Requirement (GWH)
450

400

350

--

-----------

---------

----------------------

---------------------------

!!!.

300

:;
go

II:

~
o

250

200

150

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-()4

2004-05

187

217

251

284

278

278

222

-+- Actual
__

Avl.
Estimated

2005-08

2006-07

200708

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

201112

254

274

295

318

343

370

398

238

YEAR

Actual Avl.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.37(8)
Mizoram: Peak Demand
120

110

100

lE'

!.
'tl

~
~

-.)

90

.!l

80

..--

70

-,i
.'

60
199899

f:! ---,"clua!
__

met

72

Estimated

___

1999-00 2000-~
74
~_~

'_2~

_~+_

2.001.02: 200,,2,03 2003-,04,2004-05

7~

--L

i 2005.06\2006.07.

2007-08' 200809

200910

2010-11

2011-12

100

107

115

67--l~~

~?1

76

I~~

B7

93

YEAR

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

=
Chart 2.38.(A)
Nagaland: Energy Requirement (GWH)
750

650---'-~'---'---"

550

~--'--"-~-----'---'"

------

_u __

450

----

----~.---_

.---~--.

..----

---.

'--"--

..----.-------

.. --

-..---

----

..---

------.--

- ---

~
N
00

350

-----.--

250

-------

150

---.

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

175

204

219

246

292

300

324

Avl.
Estimated

...---

1998-99

-+- Actual
___

..--

-----'-.

Actual Avl.

330

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2006-09

367

408

454

505

-YEAR

Shortage

2009-10 - 2010-11

562

Estimated

626

2011-12

698

Chart 2.38(B)
Nagaland: Peak Demand

170

150

110

----

90. ------- ..--

__

.... _

...

.-0

70

------

--

--

50
-~-

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.39(A)
Tripura: Energy Requirement (GWH)
1300

1200 ------

1100

'";:~

1000

-----

----j

..-"-----.-----

;;

900 ----

BOO

"3

,i

.-.

_.I

0"

a:

'"c
~

------i I

.-.-----)

UJ

700

.. ---

600 ----.

-----

'----,-----

500
1998-99
562

-+-Actual Av!.
___

2004~5
527

Estimated

200S.06j 2006-07 2007-08 : 2008-09

700

2009~10 2010-11

-I

644

- 759

822

B91

966

1046

YEAR

Actual AvL

Shortage

Estimated

1134

2011-12
1229

Chart 2.39{B)
Tripura: Peak Oemand
310

290---270

250

~
i!!.

---

__

---

..,

230' --- ---- --

E
2l

210

---

---

.-

.=

-----

'"

190

170

150

Actual met

Shortage

Estimated

.g""

!1

'"
'"
B

Chart 2.40(A)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Energy Requirement

a
.:1"

""

(GWH)

0.

"'""

400

<

350 -

:0
;:
~
E

.------

.. ---

300 -------

---

----

-----

--

250 -----------

---

---

...-----------.--

--

---

...

-----

---------.---

'3

".

ex:

200

>Cl

<:
w

150

100

50

1998-99

Actual Av1.

1999-00 2000-01 , 2001-02


99

98

107

129

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

135

153

126

2005-06 ' 2006-07


146

126

Estimated

193

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

219

248

281

316

344

YEAR

Actual Avi.

Shortage

Estimated

Chart 2.40.(8)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Peak Demand
80

70

!i'

60

~
'tl
C

50

'"
ll.

40

30

20

-Actual met
___ Estimated

199899
22

1999- 200000 . 01
24

25

I 200102

2002I 03

I ~

30
.

Actual met

200304
34

2004- I 200505 . 06
28
28

YEAR
Shortage

33

200607

200708

43

49

I 2008- I 200909

10

56

63

Estimated

201011

I 201112
77

,.

()

.lj
&

'"

3'"a

"
1:'
<

Chart 2.41(A)
Lakshdweep: Energy Requirement

"!

0-

(GWH)

45

0'

~
40

35

30 '---,

-.-.---.---

.-

-.-,.-.--

25

20

15 .---------,----,-.--

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2tJ06.07 2007-08 2008-09,2009-10


20

20

21

22

22

Actual AvL

.2010-11 2011-12

22

Shortage

24

26

28

31

34

37

Estimated

40

Chart 2.41 (B)


Lakshadweep:

Peak Demand(MW)

12.00

11.00

~
~
~

10.00

:E

9.00

'C

c:

w
v,

'"

Q
.I<:

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00
____

'1

1998-99

1999- ,2000-,2001-

+-_-+....<JO_J_02...

IActualmetW_I_5_+-IEstimated , __

I__

02

,_0~_1

6,,__

L.......J.

Actual met

I 2002-

'__

'

2003~

164T'~.

200<1- 200505

2006-

~~_~
Shortaqe

2007-

2008-

2009-

I~~--.Cl~i

L_+_
I

__

06

-+ __
I

8.3

,
I

2010- I 2011-

10
1

.;.._...:..

~.
__

:~:Cl....l...98_1.1Q,6

Estimated

-L~3.-'
!

'

11.5...J

~~t
,>

!
17th Electric Power SUNey

Central Electricity Authorily

/.tli:i
. : ..

;'/

2.42

REVIEW OF FORECAST

(PEUM)

2.42.1
All India Scene: In the year 201 I- 12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 208,
185 & 202 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shaH decline by 8.83 % and
AELF shaH reduce from 79.01 % to 72.39% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
GWh,
362799

EEC 03-04

755847
CAGR %

CAGR %

8yrAclual

8yrForecast

3.43

GWh,

EEC 95-96

9.61

277029

GWh

EER 11-12

968659
GWh,

EER 03-04

524299

CACR-%

CAGR%

8yr-Actual

8yr-Forecast

4.98

GWh,

EER 95-96

Particulars

355519

Value
2011-12

Past-Avo Growth
per year - %

Forecast-Av. Growth per


year- %

30.8

21.97

1.09

-1.10

79.01

72.39

-0.24

-0.83

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

22.08

AELF %

80.93

TDL

7.98

MVV.
15274-6

APEL11-12

MVV.

APEL03-04-

75756

CAGR - %

CAGR _ Ok

8yr-Actual

Syr-Foreca~t

S.29

APEL9S-ge

Chapter II: Summary and Review

.,
IMVV.
-------

I~f;!~<;--;

136

50146

__

,,/

!L~_n
~

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

,
2.43

REVIEW OF FORECAST(PEUM)

REGIONAL

SCENE

2.43.1 : Northern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
227,191 & 215 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12.17
% and AELF shall reduce from 78.94 % to 69.92 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201]-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
222668
EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

______

~~~6

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8yr-Actual

8yr-Fore<:ast

3.37

10.82

GWh
294841

EER 11-12

CAGR

EER 03-04

CAGR-%

8)T-Actllal

8yr-Forecasl

4.98

8.41

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%
AELF-%

Value
1995-96
28.33
75.04

Value
2003-04
36.65
78.94

Value
2011-12
24.48

PastAverage
Variation per year- %
1.04

ForecastAverage
Variation per year- %
-1.52

69.92

0.49

-1.13

MVV,

APEL11-12

48137

MVV,

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

22346

CAGR
%
8yr-Actllal

CAGR

4.32

10.07

%
8yr-Forecast

MVV,
15937

137

Chapter

1I : Summary and Review

,.:,

17th Electric Power SU/vey

Central ElectricityAuthontY~~:

2.43.2: Western Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
191, 172 & 204% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 7.47
% and AELF shall reduce from 84.71 % to 71.45 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

GWh
I 116641

------~--~

IGWh
95462

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

~~~GWh
'
:"

~--------

GWh
I 171090

EER 03-04

CAGR - %

CAGR - %

8 r-Actual
2.54

8 r-Foreca~l
8.44

294860

EER 95-96

Particulars Value
1995-96
TDL-%
19.98
AELF-%

APEL

80.92

Value
2011-12
24.36

84.71

71.45

Past Average
Variationner year- %
1.48

Forecast-Ayerage
Variation ner year- %
-0.93

0.47

-1.66

11-12

- ,

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

Chapter

Value
2003-04
31.83

II : Summary and Review

<

"

>,.

,...

M\N.
~ __ 16830

138

M\N.
47108

M\N.
23055
CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 r-Actual
4.01

9.34

8 r-Forecast

~~~/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

,
2.43.3: Southern Regiou: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
197,184 & 182 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.55
% and AELF shall improve from 71.06 % to 71.67 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12

I 107427
GWh

EEC 03-04

CAGR'7f
llyr-AcllJ~1

CAGRCy(

RYI'ror~ca'l

--~~~-8.85

4.91

EEC 95-96

_______

~~~4

GWh
253443

EER 11-12

~. __ .

EER 03-04

g~P40

CAGR - %

8yr-Aclual

CAGR-'7f
8yr-Foreca<;t

5.62

7.92

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%

Value
1995-96
17.66

Value
2003-04
22.01

Value
2011-12
16.46

AELF-%

81.12

71.06

71.67

Past- Average Variation


per vear- %
0.54

Forecast -Average
Variation per vear- %
-0.69

-1.26

0.08

APEL11-12

APEL

40367

03-04

22127

95-96

1_..

8yr-Acrual

'Ie
llyr-FQ~raSl

7.39

7.MfI

I CAGR - 'ff
!

APEL

O\GR -

112513

139

Chapter

II Summary and ReviL'w

/"1

17th Electric Power Survey

CentralElectricityAuthority!kc~r

2.43.4 : Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
237, 204 & 220 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by
10.67 % and AELF shall reduce from 72.04 % to 66.86 % during 8 year forecast period upto
2011-12.
GWh
87521

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

_______

EEC 95-96

______

----

:_:;~:
I

CAGR-%
8vr-Actual
2.4S

~~~8

CAGR-%
8vr-Forecast
11.37

GWh

I 30388

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

IGWh
54682

--------

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecast

4.47

9.35

EER 95-96

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

TDL-%

2i.l4

AELF-%

72.71

Particulars

PastAverage
Variation per year- %

ForecastAverage
Variation per year- %

32.39

Value
201112
21.72

1.41

-1.33

72.04

66.86

-0.08

-0.65

AF'EL11-12

MVV
190BB

MVV

AF'EL03-04

AF'EL95-96

B664

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecast

4.59

10.38

16~~

-----_~----

Chapt~r II: Summary and Review

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

l ~_~._.

140

J.~f
//'il

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

2.43.5: North-Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to
become 283, 219 & 228 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall
decline by 17.80% and AELF shall reduce from 62.42 % to 59.98 % during 8 year forecast period
upt02011-12.
~.

EEC 11-12

w~
~

-",.~= ..

".'
:',

""'~GWh

- -,

"

'.<;f~'

''''.

...

10576

IGWh
3742

EEC 03-04

CAGR'~%

CAGR - %

8YT-Aclual

8YT-Forecast

3.69

13.87

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

jGWh
6080

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

CAGR-%
Ryr-Aclual

CAGR-",{
8yr-Forecast

5.68

10.31

IGWh
3909

------

Particulars

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

PastVariation
%

Average

per year-

ForecastAverage
Variation per year- %

TDL-%

28.37

38.45

20.65

1.26

-2.22

AELF-%

57.95

62.42

59.98

0.56

-0.31

APEL11-12

- .~-

!'v1VV,
1112

APEL03-04-

APEL95-96

--

IVIVV

-CAG-R - %

2537

CAGR-%

Syr-Actual

8YT-Forecast

4.70

10.86

______ ~jIVI\/V. 770

141

Chapter II : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44

Central Electricity Authority

REVIEW OF FORECAST

~y/

(PEUM) STATE/UT WISE SCENE

2.44.1 Jammu & Kashmir: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
229, 165 & 163% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 20.00
% and AELF shall improve from 61.04 % to 62.00 % during 8 year forecast period upt02011-12.
GWh

EEC 11-12

8080

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%
8yr-AcllJ~1

CAGR,

9.43

10.89

I;;

Ryr-Fon'CJ.,(

EEC 95-96

GWh
11202

EER11-12

_________

EER 03-04

IG~~o
I

CAGR _ 'I:
8yr-Actu~1

CMiR _ Of,
gyr-F"rcc~sl

9.38

6.48

EER 95-96

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
48.08

Value
2003-04
47.87

Value
2011-12
27.87

Past- Average
Variation per year- %
-0.03

Forecast- Average
Variation per year- %
-2.50

AELF-%

65.13

61.04

62.00

-0.51

0.12

Particulars

MVV.

APEL11-12

2063

MVV.
1268

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

Chaptt:r II : Summary and Review

~-----

MVV. 580

142

~CAGR~
-,~;
i

8yr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecasl

10,27

6.27

Central Electricity Authority

17t11Electric Power Survey

2.44.2 Delhi: In the year 2011-]2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 229,180 &
185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 15.93 % and
AELF shall reduce from 69.97 % to 68.00 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

["lJW,1.#I!!:'~~~Wh

EEC 11-12

27207

I GWh

EEC 03-04

CAGR -'i!
~yr-Ao,;l\1al

11903

CAGR',

Syr-Furo,;o,;a,1

7.69

I GWh

EEC 95-96

EER 03-04

10.82

--

6581

20160
IGWh

___________

<{lli:.'SYTr"n~la'l
V 'i,

i CAUT< '~.Hyr-A"wal
------

;I~ -

--.---

5.49

_______
l

EER 95-96

7.63

--_._-~------------

~~~5

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

Past- Average
Variation per year- %

Forecast- Average
Variation per year- %

TDL-%

49.94

40.96

25.03

-1.12

-2.09

AELF-%

75.98

69.97

68.00

-0.75

Particulars

-0.11

MVV.

APEL11-12

6092

MVV.

AP'EL-03-04

3289

CAGR-%
Ryr-Aetual

6.58

APEL9S-96

CAGR-'k
llyr-Furco,;a~(

18.01

I~~5

143

Chapter

II : Summary and Revicw

~f
/i

17th Electric Power Survey

Centrat Electricity Authorily

2.44.3 Haryana: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 222, 194
& 209 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 9,25% and
AELF shall reduce from 68,88 % to 64.12 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
28639

EEC 11-12
---

EEC 03-04

CAGR - %
8yr-Actual

CAGR-'il
8yr-Forecast

5.60

10.47

EEC 95-96

~'<,.,- ~~~"'-~ ~

<,

EER 11-12

>1

'

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

Particulars

~,~~

>

-~=~<il1Jv"",~>~~"'_._......
_."~~_.'i"""""-"-'

_____

GWh
38417

CAGR - %
8yr-Actual

CAGR - %
8yr-Foreca,t

6.04

8.65

~~~9

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
32.48

Value
2003-04
34.70

Value
2011-12
25.45

Past -Average
Variation per year- %
0.28

Forecast-Average
Variation per vear- %
-1.16

AELF-%

78.66

68.88

64.12

-1.22

-0.59

MVV,
6839

APEL11-12

MVV,
3278

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

Chapler

II. Summary and Review

______

MVV.

! 1795

144

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecast

7.82

9.63

<

il;r.l"
':_:.~.W:'Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Swvey

2.44.4 Himachal Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
278, 237 & 240 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12%
and AELF shall rednce from 68.42% to 67.34% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011- 12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
7617
EEC 03-04

IGWh
2737

'.'

ICAGR o/c
llyr-Actual

13.65

6 89
.

IGWh
1606

EEC 95-96

CAGR-'k
8yr-Foreca'l

II

I
I

EER 11-12

........

GWh
9504
.\GWh
4016

i.

EER 03-04

CAGR-%
8yr.Acrual

~76

CAGR-%
8v[ForccaQ

11.37-

IGWh
2209

EER 95-96

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

Past- Average
Variation per year- %

TDL-%

27.30

31.85

19.85

0.57

Forecast- Average
Variation per year%
-1.50

AELF-%

49.84

68.42

67.34

2.32

-0.13

Particulars

MVV.
1611

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

CAGR-%
Syr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecast

3.57

11.59

MVV, 506

145

Chapter

II : Summary and Review

CentratEtectricity
AuthoritY4~u

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.5 Punjab: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 211,198 &
196 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 4.8 % and AELF
shall improve from 61.97 % to 62.77 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
47427
GWh
22465

EEC 03-04

CAGR - %

CAGR-

8yr-Acttlal

8yr-Forecast

4.23

9.79

GWh
16130

EEC 95-96

GWh
60489

EER 11-12

GWh
30520

EER 03-04

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR%
8yr-Forecast

5.44

8.93

GWh
19981

EER 95-96

Particulars

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
19.27

Value
2003-04
26.39

Value
2011-12
21.59

Past- Average
Varialion Der year - %
0.89

Forecast- Average
Variation oeT vear- %
-0.60

AELF-%

59.40

61.97

62.77

0.32

0.10

--

.A.PEL"1

IVIVV
"11 000

"1-12

.Po..PEL03-04

APEL9S-96

Chapter II : Summary and Review

IVIVV

3840

146

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGI<.-%
8yr-Forecast

4.88

8.7S

//-1.

..

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

I~)

i;;;!

2.44.6 Rajasthan: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 247, 184
& 205 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 19,06 % and
AELF shall reduce from 73,14 % to 65,83% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,

EEC 11-12
MkWh,
36422
GWh
14720

EEC 03-04

CAGR - %
8yr-Actu~1

CAGR 'Ie
3rr-Forecast

1.36

11.99

GWh
13213

EEC 95-96

GWh
48916

EER 11-12

GWh
26570

EER 03-04

CAGR-%
8yr-Actllal

CAGR-%
8yr-ForaaSl

4.52

7.93

GWh
18661

EER 95-96

Particulars

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

TDL-%

29.19

44.60

AELF-%

77.35

73.14

Forecast- Average
Variation per year - %

25.54

Past - Average
Variation per year%
1.93

65.83

-0.53

-0.91

-2.38

IVIVV

A.PEL11-12

84-82

A.PEL03-04-

A.PEL9S-9e.

CAGR-%
8yr"Actual

CAGR%
8yr-Forecast

5.25

9.36

IVIVV
2754-

147

Chapter II: Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,-,~~-9f


'.'.'C-;"--""-c/.i

2.44.7 Ullar Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 226,
191 & 231 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shan decline by 11.3 % and
AELF shall reduce from 78.43% to 64.88% during 8 year forecast period upt02011-J2.

1---

I
GWh
58908

EEC 11-12

GWh
26103

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%

i 8_~r-Aclual

0.72

GWh
24639

EEC 95-96

CMiR-9(
8yr-ForecaSl

10.71

------1

I
GWh
79268

EER 11-12

GWh
1\1424

EER 03-04

Particulars

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

TDL-%

21.44

36.98

25.68

AELF-%

79.18

78.43

64.88

----

CAGR - 'ii
8yr-Forecasl

3.54

8.45

GWh
31365

EER 95-96

----------

CAGR - 'k
l:!yr-AClual

Past- Average
I Variation per year%
1 __
1.94

--------

_______
.___
~L,.

--.

-----

I
-009
I
----~-----'---------- -....

Forecast- Average
Variation per year- %

-r- ::.~~

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

Chapter II : Summary and Review

I---------.J

MVV.

CAGR"it

CAGR - 9~

6029

l:!yr-AcluaJ

8yr-Forecas!

MVV,
4522

14/;

!VI VV
13947

~\'-~!~,

17th Electn-c Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

2.44.8 Uttaranchal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246. 201
& 208 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shal! decline by 14.0 % and

m """ "m'., " >'"

AEE_LE"FS1h1'"112''''"'' Crom """

,ore,""

.=:,":~"".,~!

......
GWh
2662

EEC 03-04

6539

CAGR - 'k
Ryr-Actual

CAGR - 'lr

1.91

11.89

Ryr-h>(ccJS(

GWh
2289

EEC 95-96

GWh
8445

EER 11-12

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

Past - Average
Variation per year - %

II

~JJ

'.U

Forecast-Average
Variation per year- %

..

l
I

._----,

DL-o/~5

"AEiF% I

"YCCO"''']

4.67

GWh
2914

EER 95-96

Particulars

CAGR-'!l

CAGR- 'Ii
Ryr-Actual

GWh
4197

EER 03-04

-66.26

36.56

22.56

1.89

-1.75

65.01

62.87

-0.16

-0.27

,-, -",1

.-.----.,

---------

MVV,
1533

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

737

CAG~;i(jR
_~yr-.~Clllid

4.92

-~k
_~YI-l'()[elast

9.59

___ -.i
APEL95-96

~MVV'

502
--

149

...

----------'

"'-.-'.:?"c'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

,'--'~~lc'ii

/i=~~'!Y

2.44.9 Chandigarh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 215,
212 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.09 % and
AELF shall improve from 58.81 % to 62.81 % during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
1827

GWh

EEC 03-04

849
GWh

EEC 95-96

CAGR-%
Syr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Foreca~t

5.38

10.06

558

EER 11-12
GWh
2308
GWh
1087

EER 03-04

GWh
811

EER 95-96

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR-'1(
Syr-Forecast

3.73

9.87

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
31.20

Value
2003-04
21.94

Value
2011-12
20.85

Past- Average Variation


per year- %
-1.16

Forecast- Average
Variation per year- %
-0.14

AELF-%

62.98

58.81

62.81

-0.52

0.50

Particulars

APEL11-12

.4-20

APEL03-04-

APEL95-96

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR%
Ryr-ForecaSl

4.62

8_97

MVV.14-7

~----------------~--~_._-----------------Chapter

]! .

Summary and Rc\-je\\

150

,fL~,'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

2.44.10 Goa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 252, 232 & 214
% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.69 % and AELF
shall improve from 67.04% to 72.53% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC11-12

GWh
3744

GWh

EEC 03-04

1484

GWh

EEC 95-96

CAGR %
8yr-Ac!ual

CAGR - %
8yr-Forecast

7.36

12.26

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR-%
8yr-Forecasl

7.03

11.07

841

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

GWh

EER 95-96

Particulars

1149

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
26.81

Value
2003-04
24.99

Value
2011-12
18.30

AELF-%

64.30

67.04

72.53

Past-Average
Variation per year- %
-0.23

Forecast -Average
Variation per year- %
-0.84

0.34

0.69

APEL11-12

72

MVV
APEL03-04

CAGR-%
8yr-Actua!

CAGR-%
8yr-fnrecast

6.47

9.98

APEL9S-96
______________________

~,~~~:e:::~

151

Cll:lptcr 11: ~\lmI1Mry lInd Rl'vk\\

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power SUlVey

.?!~_~

2.44.11 Gujarat: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 172, 170 &
200 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.07 % and AELF
shall reduce from 79.69% to 67.86% during 8 year forecast period upt0201 1-12.

GWh
65425

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

IGWh
37972

IGWh
25882

EEC 95-96

CAGR - %
8yr-AclUal

CAGR-%
8yr-ForccaSl

4.91

7.04

GWh
I 85445

EER 11-12

."''''''1 GWh
50292

""

EER 03-04

','

CAGR - %
8yr-Adual

CAGR-'J"
llyr-Forecast

4.74

6.85

IGWh
34733

EER 95-96

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

TDL-%

25.48

24.50

23.43

-0.12

-0.13

AELF-%

86.50

79.69

67.86

-0.85

-1.48

Particulars

~"'"'_~_"',"
APEL11-12

~ ~~""~

Past - Average
Variation per year- %

~~~
__

;r"
~:._J,;,i.~.ii~:;~.c:.~
.....
""=,,-,, .::.,",-_~",.

IV1 vv .
7204-

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

('haplCr II Summary and Rcview

f-------,
f--

Forecast -Average
Variation per year- %

IV1VV.
--.J4S84

152

~ ~~~

_I

. IV1 vv .
..J: 14374

..

CAGR-%
8yr-AclUal

CAGR~%
8yr-ForecoSl

5.81

9.02

Centra! Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.12 Chhattisgarh:
In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 245,
217 & 227 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.96 % and
AELF shall reduce from 73.15 % to 69.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12 .
----.-- -_.-.- .. ----- ------_._---

EEC 11-12

,,<

GWh
.. ...17092

.
.

EEC 03-04

IGWh
6988

CAGR,
'il:
gyrAcrual
..

_.

..

0.46

CAGH.-%
~
8yr-ForccaSl

i1.83-~

IGWh
6737

EEC 95-96

GWh
21785

EER 11-12

IGWh
10055

EER 03-04

TDL-%
AELF-%

CAGR - %
gyrForaasl

GWh
7795

EER 95-96

Particulars

CAGR - k
gyrAclual

Value
1995-96
13.57
--87.15

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

30.50

21.54

2.12

73.15

69.75

-1.75

Past- Average
Variation per year- %

Forecast-A verage
Variation per year- %

-1.12

-0.42

Mvv.11

APEL11-12

3565
CAG!?

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

I,

,;,

gyr-AclUal

CAGI{ - ',',
gyr-hxccaSl

5.52

10.80

I
1

MVV,
!"102"1

153

C!i:;r1tC[- IJ

Summary and R<,yi<'\\

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority.

~'~~i

._~'il!'
.

'.'

2.44.13 Madhya Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
227, 182 & 176 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.68
% and AELF shall improve from 64.62 % to 66.56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GW
3613

EEC 11-12
CAGR

EEC 03-04

GWh
15908

EEC 95-96

GWh
15905

CAGR - %

B)T-Actual

Byr-Forecast

0.00

10.8

GWh
49338

EER 11-12

GWh
27171

EER 03-04

TDL-%
AELF-%

APEL

- %

CAGR - %

Byr-Actual

8yrForecast

3.73

7.74

GWh
20264

EER 95-96

Particulars

CAGR

Value
2002-03
21.51

Value
2003-04
41.45

Value
2011-12
26.77

71.53

64.62

66.56

Past - Average
Variation Der vear- %

Forecast ~Average
Va.i.ation Der vear- %

2.49

-1.84

-0.86

0.24

MVV,

11 -1 2

8462

APEL03-04
CAGR

APEL95-96

Chapter

" : Summary and Review

MVV,
3234

154

- %

CAGR - %

Byr-Actu~l

Byr-Furecast

5.06

7.}4

~~/central

ElectricityAuthority

17th Electric Power Swvey

2.44.14 Maharashtra:
In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 181,
160 & 185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.72% and
AELF shall reduce from 75.67 % to 65.34 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12

EEC 11-12
GWh

93737

GWh

EEC 03-04

51824
GWh

EEC 95-96

CAGR - %
Ryr-Actual

CAGR - %
8YT-Forecast

1.61

7.69

45597

GWh

EER 11-12

125661
CAGR

GWh

EER 03-04

lEER

78667

CAGR - %

3yr-Forecast

4.62

6.03

GWh

95-96

Particulars

-%

8yr-Actual

54798

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
16.79

Value
2003-004
34.12

Value
2011-12
-25.40

Past - Average
Variation ner vear- %
2.17

Forecast- Average
Variation ner vear- %
-1.09

AELF-%

77.29

75.67

65.34

-0.20

-1.29

MW.
2195

APEL11-12

CAGR-%

M\IV.

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

1 1868

CAGR-%

8yr-Actual

8yr-Forecast

4.90

7.99

MVV,
8094

155

Chapter

II : Summary and Rcview

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.15 D & N Haveli: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 2S0,
277 & 247 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by O.SS %
and AELF shall improve from 66.0 I % to 74.00 % during 8 year forecast period upta 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

~~~

GWh
1547

EEC 03-04

CAGR - %

CAGR

8yr-ACluaJ

8yrl'orccast

23.93

13.72

'k

GWh
278

EEC 95-96

GWh

EER 11-12

5042
GWh
1821

EER 03-04

CAGR -

'f,

8yr-AclUai

eMiR

-%
8yr-Forl'CaSI

24~~__~_

GWh

EER 95-96

Particnlars
___

TDL-%

307

Value
1995-96
9.45

Value
2003-04
15.08

Value
2011-12
14.20

66.01

74.00

---

AELF-%

77.88

Past-Average
VariatioflJler vear- %
0.70
------1.48

Forecast - Average
Variation Der vear- % __
-0.11
'M

1.00

1----, APEL11-12

77

CAGR %
8yr-Actuul

APEL03-04

CA(iR - ~'r
8yr-Forecast

27.54
u_l~.~

APEL95-96

Chaplcr II : Sumnlal'}- and Re-yic\\

156

*1311I
,i?L:i~,~j.:,,/
Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

2.44.16 Daman & Din: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 281,
272 & 291 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2.72% and
AELF shall reduce from 66.31 % to 62.13 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201 ] - ]2.

-~---l
I
I
i

GWh

EEC 11-12

2579

I
I

GWh
917

EEC 03-04

CAGR_CkCMiR._'J:
l)yr-'\CIU~l
..----

~yr-Fun'hl

.--------'

19.40

13.Htl

__ L_ ~

I,
!I

GWh

EEC 95-96

Ii

222

Ii

H~_I

I---------__-_~_l=====================~_I

EER 11-12

('jr;;)5

I
I

lEER

l..
I

Cu.:'>

IIY;>\(I[O,,)

20.16
u.

_I

H;';--I'~;"LU";I
I

J.'

__

13.34

'

GWh

EER 95-96

Particulars

C.\(jR

JGWh
1104

03-04

_.J

254

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
12.60

Value
2003-04
16.88

Value
2011-]2
14.]6

AELF-%

64.43

66.31

62.13

Past-Average
Variation per year- %
0.54

Forecast-Aver~-g~-------i
i
Variation per year- (;{
-0.34
-

0.23

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

LAPEL95-96

MVV, 45

157

.. -----

-0.52

-I

17th Electric Power Survey

J,_, _

Central ElectricityAuthority!~"

2.44.17 Andhra Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
213,200 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.03
% and AELF shall improve from 68.60% to 69.04 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

GWh
34085

EEC 03-04

GWh
72766
CAGR-%

CAGR_%

8yrActlial

8yr-Foreust

4.65

9.94

GWh
23694

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12
GWh
89032

GWh
44440

EER 03-04

CAGR-%

8yr-AclUal

EER 95-96

-Particulars

, 5.31

GWh
29376

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

CAGR-%

8yr-rorecaSI
9.07

Forecast Average Variation


Past- Average
Variation per year-%
per year - %

TDL-%

19.34

23.30

18.27

0.49

-0.63

AELF-%

78.42

68.60

69.04

-1.23

0.05

MVV,
14721

APEL11-12

CAGR

-%

8yr-Foreca~1

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

8.99

IMVV
,
4276

---------------~-~-----------------------(harter

II : SUn1JiJaryand Rcv;;:w

158

."L....
~.,'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

2.44.18 Karnataka: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 195,
171 & 161 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 10.6 % and
AELF shall improve from 65.3% to 69.25 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
45241

GWh
23143

EEC 03-04

GWh
16010

EEC 95-96

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual

CAGR%
8yr-Forecast

4.71

8.74

EER 11-12
GWh

53540

GWh
31317

EER 03-04

CAGR

- %

CAGR-%

8yr-Adual

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
16.29

AELF-%

74.08

Particulars

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

APEL

6.J6

GWh
19125

EER 95-96

95-96

Value
2003-04
26.10

Value
2011-12
15.50

65.30

69.25

8,.,-F.""_""

-:l

6.93

..

Past Average
Variation per vear- %
1.23

Forecast- Average Variation


per year- %
-1.33

-1.1

0.49

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8yr-Actual

8yr-Forecast

8.05

Ii.IS

MVV,
2947

159

Ch:lptc[ II : Summary and Rcview

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

i(:~s'ta~

/;$',<'_'

2.44.19 Kerala: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 180. 154 &
145 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shan decline by 12,25% and
AELF shall improve from 58,81 % to 62,22% during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
16345

EEC 11-12

GWh
9096

EEC 03-04

CAGR -

or

8 -r-A~!'.'!L

GWh
7340

2,72

CAGR
q
8TForcca~1

17,60

--'-~

-----'

I
I

EER 11-12

GWh
12503

EER 03-04

----

CAGR

EER 95-96

---

Particulars
TDL-%

Value
1995-96
20,9 7

AELF-%

67,6 2

____

_ rk

8 h'"""l_

]GWh

3.79 _

9288

Value

I Value
2003-04
I
2011-12
~'-_~,~_...l
27.25 ! 15,00
58,81
________

Past-Average Variation
ner vear - %
0,78

62,22

-LlO

Forecast- Average
Variation oervear- %
-1.53
-- .. -0.43

,_--J-.

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04
CAGR -

MVV,
1568

APEL 95-96

L
('har!~r

IJ .

SUllllll'-lry

and Review

160

'*

R r-Actual
5.61

CAGR - 'k

8 r-Foreca~l
4.79

?:Y-'

;1
j'

!L~
17th Electric Power Survey

~I

l/

2.44.20 Tamil Nadu: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 188,
184 & 187 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.66% and
AELF shall reduce from 71.14 % to 70.00% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
39308

EEC 03-04

GWh
73703
CAGRO/[

CAGR-<;\

8 r-Actual

8'f-Forcrasl

5.65

8.17

GWh
25330

EEC 95-96

GWh
87222

EER 11-12

GWh
47450

EER 03-04

Particulars
TDL-%
AELF-%

CAGR-q
8 r-Forecast

5.H3

7.91

GWh
30145

EER 95-96

r-=-~ -

CAGRq,
_ r-Actual

Value
1995-96
15.97

Valu~
2003-04
17.16

2011-12
15.50

76.05

71.14

70.00

---

~--

.-

-----

------~-

Past- Av~rage Variation I Forecast- Average Variation


per vear- %
oer vear - %
0.15
-0.21
-0.61

-0.14

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

4
- - -

--,.,..- -

MVV,
7614

CAGR - '),.

CAGR-%

~~Acttlal

liT-I:0r.,e..':!l>

6.72

8.12

MVV,
4525

161

Chapter

II ' Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey

CentralElectricityAuthoritY""'~J?
I,
!;

2.44.21 Pondicherry:
In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 205,
218 & 211 % respectively of the corresponding
values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.35%
from year 2004-05 to 2011-12 and AELF shall improve from 71.84 % to 73.92% during 8 year
forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

GWh
1795

EEC 03-04

GWh

EEC 95-96

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 r-Actual

8 r-Forecast

9.96

9.38

840

GWh
4419

EER 11-12

GWh
2030

EER 03-04

CAGR-%

8 -Actual

8 r-Forecast

9.51

10.21

GWh

EER 95-96

982

Past-Average

Particulars

Value

Value

Value

TDL-%

1995-96
14.46

2003-04
11.60

2011-12
16.80

68.77

71.84

73.92

AELF-%

CAGR-%

Variation

Der vear - %
-0.36

Forecast -Average
Variation oer year - %

0.65

0.38

0.26

APEL11-12

APEL

APEL

Chapter

CAGR-%

03-04-

95-96

II : Summary and Rcview

IVIVV. 163

162

CAGR-%

8 r-ActuaJ

8 -Forecast

8.91

9.82

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.22 Bihar: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 401, 337&
45R % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12% and AELF
shall reduce from 85.59 % to 63% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
14929

EEC 11-12
GWh
3722

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%
8 '[-Actual

CAGR-%
8 T"Forecast

0.17

18.96

GWh
3671

EEC 95-96

GWh
19905

EER 11-12

GWh
5908

EER 03-04

TDL-%
AELF-%

CAGR91

2 99
.

16.40

8 [-Forccast

IGWh

EER 95-96

Particulars

CAGR
o/c
8 [Actual

4669

Value Value
Value
1995-96 2003-04 2011-12
21.38
37.00
25.00
75.28

85.59

Past- Average
Variation ocr vear- %
1.95

Forecast-Average
Variation per year- %
-1.50

1.29

63.00

-2.82

APEL11-12

,APEL

03-04

APEL 95-96

CAGR%

CAGR%

8 [-Actual

8 r-Forcca~l

1.35

20.94

J70a

163

Chapter

II : Summary and Review'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

""7

..

I,..
;

2.44.23 Jharkhand
: In the year 20Il-I2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 241,
232 & 237 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 3,06 % and
AELF shall reduce from 63.56% to 62.20% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

GWh
7618

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%

GWh
6756

EEC 95-96

r~

EER 11-12

CAGR . %
8 -Forecast

11.63

23408
GWh
10106

EER 03-04

GWh
7628

EER 95-96

Particulars

8T-Actual
1.51

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
11.43

Value
2003 04
24.61

AELF-%

81.99

63.56

Value
2011-12
21.55

Past-Average
Variation per year- %
1.65

Forecast - Average
Variation per year- %
-0.38

-2.30

-0.17

62.20

APEL11-12

APEL

APEL

MVV,

03-04

95-96

Chapter l[: Summary and Review

1815.12

MVV.
1062

164

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 r-Actual

8 r-Forecast

6.93

11.37

~~J'central

Electricity
Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.24 Orissa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 284, 203 &
224 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2],49 % and
AELF shall reduce from 76.84 % to 69.50% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
20362

EEC 11-12

GWh
7157

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%
R [_Actual

CAGR-%
~r-Forccast

0.10

13.96

GWh
7103

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

GWh
27149
GWh
13375

EER 03-04

GWh
9648

EER 95-96

~c

Particulars

------Past-Average
Variation per ycar-%
...

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

CAGR
%
S r-A~~uaJ

CAGR - %
8 [Forecas!

4.17

9.25

-----

Forecast-Average
Variation per year - %

TDL-%

26.38

46,49

25.00

25]

-2.69

AELF-%

68.20

76.84

69.50

L08

-0.92

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04-

lAPEL

95-96

165

CAGR . ')\,

CAGR - %

8 [-Actual

8 r-Furecast

2.62

10.63

MVV.
1615

Chapter 11 . Summary and Review

17th Electric Power SUNey

Central Electricity AuthoritY4i;;:~.;/

2.44.25 West Bengal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 183,
163 & 166 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.78 % and
AELF shall reduce from 64.35 % to 63.22% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh

EEC 11-12

33626
CAGR - %

GWh

EEC 03-04

8 T-Actual

4.65

18380

GWh

EEC 95-96

12777

GWh

EER 11-12

41020

GWh

EER 03-04

25109

GWh

EER 95-96

16492

Value

Value

Value

1995-96

2003-04

2011-12

TDL-%

22.53

26.80

18.02

0.53

-1.10

AELF-%

68.53

64.35

63.22

-0.52

-0.14

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

APEL

95-96

Particulars

Chapter II: Summary and Review

Past-Average
per year-%

Variation

Forecast-Average
Variation per year- %

MVV,
4454.4

MVV,
2747

166

(~/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricify Authorlfy

2.44.26 Sikkim: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 267.174 &
157 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 26.24 % and
AELF shall improve from 39.63 % to 44.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh

EEC 11-12

240

EEC 03-04

GWh

CAGR-%

90

8 -Actual

1.32

GWh
81,26

EEC 95-96

GWh

EER 11-12

320
GWh
184

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

Past- Average Variation


per year- %

Variation per year- %

TDL-%

16.49

51.13

24.89

4.33

-3.24

AELF-%

31.64

39.63

44.01

1.00

0.49

Particulars

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

APEL

95-96

Forecast - Average

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 "[-Actual

8 r-Forecast

5.32

5.77

MVV,35

167

Chapter

II Summary and Revkw

/1

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

0'7~iv/
!I~;/

2.44.27 Arunachal Pradesh: In the year 20Il-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become
263,221 & 232 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12 %
and AELF shall reduce from 39.97 % to 37.94% during 8 yearforecast period uplo 2011-12.

GWh
287

EEC 11-12

GWh
109.42

EEC 03-04

GWh
75.57

EEC 95-96

GWh

EER 11-12

386

EER 03-04

GWh
104

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%

Value
1995-96
26.92

Value
2003-04
37.50

Value
201I-I2
25.50

AELF-%

27.61

39.97

37.94

Past- Average Variation per


year - %
1.32

Forecast Average
Variation Der vear- %
-1.50

1.55

-0.25

APEL11-12

APEL

03-04-

APEL

95-96

Chapter II: Summary and Review

MVV,

MvV,

168

4-3

1 1

.'

/.~_

,df!:-ii~i

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

r
2.44.28 Assam: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 318. 240 &
218 % respectively Of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.81 % and
AELF shall improve from 54.56 % to 60 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
6106

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

GWh
1768

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12
GWh

7585
GWh
3164

EER 03-04

CAG''" ~

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%
AELF-%

8 r-For~~_~
11.55

GWh

2509

Value
1995-96
29.53
60.68

Value
2003-04
39.31

Value
2011-12
19.50

54.56

60.00

Past-Average
Variation oer vear- %
1.22
-0.76

03-04

APEL

95-96

0.68

MVV,
1443

APEL11-12

APEL

Forecast Average
Variation ocr vear~ %
-2.48

169

Chapter

II : Summary and Review

/.1
17th Electric Power Survey

CentralEleclricity
AUlhority"~t'

2.44.29 Manipur: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 345.
185 & 168 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 30.18 %
and AELF shall improve from 47.52 % to 52.40% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

GWh
605.73

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

GWh
175.38

EEC 95-96

GWh
170

EER 11-12

GWh
503.68

EER 03-04

GWh
932
CAGR - %
8 r-Forecast
7.99

CAGR-%
8 T-Actual

5.88

GWh
319

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%
--=:-.:

AELF%

52.02

APEL

11 -12

APEL

03-04

APEL

Chapter

Value
1995-96
46.71

95-96

II: Summary and Rcview

Value
2003-04
65.18

Value
2011-12
35.00

47.52

52.40

Past-Average
Variation per year- %
2.31

Forecast -Average
Variation per year- %
-3.77

-0.56

i MVV,

i70

70

0.61

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 r-AClUal

8 -Forecas

7.08

6.68

/1
,

[,.,

/11;1301.,
~_._~-.~// Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.30 Meghalaya: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 224, 219
& 235 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 1,89% and
AELF shall reduce from 60% to 56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,

GWh
1786

EEC 11-12

GWh
797.02

EEC 03-04

GWh
351

EEC 95-96

GWh
2101

EER 11-12

GWh
959

EER 03-04

TDL-%
AELF-%

CAGR-9(

8 'r-Actual

l! r-Forcca~l

12.16

10.30

GWh
383

EER 95-96

Particulars

CAGR-%

Value
1995-96
8.36

Value
2003-04
16.89

Value
2011-12
15.00

50.25

60.00

56,00

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

Past-Average
Variation oer year ~ %
1.07

Forecast-Average
Variation oer vear- %
-0.23
-0.50

1.22

MVV,
182.46

CAGR-%

CAGR-%

J1.r-Actua!---+~Forecasl_
9.70
11.26

APEL

95-96

MVV,

87

171

ChapiLr 1l : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority ~_

2.44.31 Mizoram: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 237, 144
& 163 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 29.93 % and
AELF shall reduce from 44.38 % to 39.47% during 8 year forecast period upto 201 1-12.

GWh
307.4

EEC 11-12

GWh
129.9

EEC 03-04

GWh
102

EEC 95-96

GWh
398

EER 11-12

GWh
275.97

EER 03-04

GWh
136

EER 95-96

Past -Average
Variation per year - %

Forecast -Average
Variation per year- %

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

TDL-%

25.00

52.93

23.00

3.49

-3.74

AELF- %

33.03

44.38

39.47

1.42

-0.61

Particulars
___

___

MVV,
115.46

APEL

MVV,

03-04

70.99

CAGR - %
8 r-Fore<.:a,(

. 24

lAPEL

Chapter

n : Summary

95-96

anJ Rcview

I MVV,

172

47

.tih.

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

tv
Ii

2.44.32 Nagaland: In the year 2011 - 12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 278, 210
& 162 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.02% and
AELF shall improve from 40.32 % to 52.42% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12
GWh
544.39

GWh
196

EEC 03-04

CAGR-%
8 'T-Actual
7.60

CAGR%
8 T-Foreca:;t
13.64

GWh
108.75

EEC 95-96

GWh
698

EER 11-12

. IGWh
332

EER 03-04

GWh
141

EER 95-96

Particulars
TDL-%

Value
1995-96
22.70

Value
2003-04
41.03

Value
2011-12
22.01

AELF-%

44.71

40.32

52.42

Past- Average
Variation per year- %
2.29

CAGRo/(.

CAGR-%

8vr-Aclllal

H r-Foreo:a>t

11.30

9.73

I Forecast-

Average Variation
per year- %
-2.38

~O.55

1.51

APEL11-12

APEL

MVV.

03-04CAGR-%
1'\'[-Actual

12.75

APEL

15

95-96

CAGR-%

8 (-Forecast
6.19

IVIVV.36

173

Chapter

II : Summary and Rcvic\\

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity AuthoritY,,4--'~

~1,7
fi/

In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 227,183 &

2.44.33 Tripura:
171% respectively

of the corresponding

values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.67

% and

AELF shall improve from 46.35 % to 49.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EECll-12

GWh
414.26

EEC 03-04

GWh
223.66

EEC 95-96

GWh
1229

EER 11-12

GWh
670

EER 03-04

lEER

GWh
317

95-96

TDL-%

Value
1995-96
29.34

Value
2003-04
38.17

Value
2011-12
23.50

Past- Average
Variation per vear- %
1.l0

Forecast -Average
Variation per vear - %
-1.83

AELF-%

67.01

46.35

49.75

-2.58

0.43

Particulars

APEL

11 -1 2

APEL

03-04-

APEL

95-96

Chapter II : Summary and Review

MVV, 54-

174

CAGR-%
8 r-Actual

CAGR-%
8 r-Forecast

14.98

6.93

/"1

/' ~i
/t'i~_i;n

/1il'~.,iCentral Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.34 A & N Islands: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246,
225 & 225 % respectively of the corresponding values iu 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.95 % and
AELF shall be al same level i.e. 5 I % during 8 year forecasl period upto 20 I I - I 2.

EEC 11-12
Gwh
278.31

GWh
113.21

EEC 03-04

GWh
65.7

EEC 95-96

GWh
343.59

EER 11-12

GWh
152.88

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

IGWh
81

TDL-%

Value
199596
18.52

AELF-%

51.37

Partic:.llars

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

lAPEL

95-96

I Value
2003-04
25.95

Value
2011-l2
19.00

51.00

51.00

PastAverage
Variation per year- %
0.93

Forecast~ Average Variation


per year - %
-0.87

-0.05

0.0

MVV,
76_91
CAGR-%

CAGR-%

8 f"Actual

8 rForecast

8.36

10.65

!MVV.18

175

Chapter

II : Summary and Reviev.

"~'i?
/:'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

;/

2.44.35 Lakshadweep:
In the year 201 1-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 189,
182 & 183 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.86% and
AELF shall improve from 38.49 % to 40.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

Gwh
36
EEC 03-04

GWh
19

EEC 95-96

GWh
13

CAGR-%

8 r-Fo[ccas\

4.83

8.39

EER 11-12

GWh
40

EER 03-04

GWh
22

EER 95-96

Chapter

CAGR - %

CAGR

8 r-Actual
4.61

8 T-Foreca~t
8.11

GWh
15

Particulars

Value
1995-96

Value
2003-04

Value
2011-12

TDL-%

13.33

11.85

9.99

-0.18

-0.23

AELF-%
--

42.81

38.49

40.01

-0.54

0.19

APEL

11-12

APEL

03-04

APEL

CAGR-%

8 T-Actual

95-96

II : Summary and Review

Past- Average Variation


per year- %

Forecast
Average
Variation per year- %
w

MVV.

MVV.4

176

11

CAGR-o/c

CAGR-%

8 [-Actual

f!

6.01

7.58

r-Forecast

Chart 2.45
Comparison

of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Energy Requirement

1998 - 2003 - 04

2004

- 2011 - 12

16 Nos.
15 Nos.
Punjab

"'<yaM

Orissa

Uttaranchal

9.1

TamU Nadu

5.B3

Uttar Pradesh

AndhniPradesh

5.31
4.62
4.74
4.67
4.52
5.44
5.49
6.04

8.4
9.8

Manlpur
West Bengal

8 Nos.

Maha~ra

Assam
Jharkhand
Bihar
Kerala
Madhya

Pradesh

Chhanisgam
Chandigam
UttarPradesh

<4

2.94
3.58
2.99
3.79
3.73

3.23
3.73
3.54

8.93
8.65

4.61
5.88
5.39
4.17

Lakshadweep

Gujaral
Ultaranchal
Rajasthan

Punjab
Delhi
Haryanll

Delhi
Rajasthan

8 Nos.

Chandigarh

7 Nos.

9.81
9.25
8.33

Mizoram
Sikkim

Pondicherry
Jammu

&

Kashmir

9.51
9.38

4 Nos.

9.07
7.91

6.85
6.03

Orissa

6.93
5.53

TMpura

Kera!a

9.25
7.16
7.88
7.99

West Bangal

6.33

Lakshadweep

8.11

Mlzoram

4.70

Nagaland

9.73

Gujarat
Maharashra

Nagaland;

Megh~;i);.

11.30
,12,~_6

Goo

7.03

Damart&\D1U'~.16

Kamataka

HTmachalPradesh

7.76

o'adiil-&N'kiV$H24~93

=,>4&<7

Andhrapradesh
TamfiNadu

Jammu & Kashmir 6.48

ArunachalPradeshB.73
6.36

MadhYlilPradesh7.7

Andamlln & Nicobar 8.26


TMpura

= or >7&<10

ACTUAL GROWTH

= or >10

7.63

7.93

Kamataka

Sikkim
Manfpur

12 Nos.

Chart 2.46
Com arlson 01 Ei hl Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Peak Load

1998 - 2003 - 04

2004

- 2011 - 12

laNos.

Lakshadweep

6.01

West Bengal

6.23

TamliNadu

6.72

Jharkhand

6.93

Goo
Chandlgam

6.47
4.62

Assam
Mizoram
Slkklm
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttaranchal
Gujeral
1.35 Chhattisgarh

4.32
5.29
5.32
4.88
5.25
4.92
5.81
5.52

Arunachal Pradesh 1.90

MadhyaPradesh

5.06

Orissa

Maharashtra 4.9
Kerala
5.61
Oalh:
6.58

5 fJ05.
Bihar

2.62

Himachal Prad8S~
Uttar Pracl8~h

<4

3.57
3.66

",>4&<7

14 Nos.
Madhya Pradesh

9 Nos.

Kerala
Sikkim

7 Nos.
Manpur
7.08
Andhra Pradesh 7.09
Haryana
7.82
Kamataka

5 Nos.

8.05

ACTUAL GROWTH

Kamataka
8.15
Nagaland
6.19
Mlzoram
8.24
Jammu&kash .6.27

West Bengal 6.56

Pondicherry
8.91
MeghalaYll
9.70
And.& Nicrobar 8.36

= or >7&<10

4.79

5.n

Manlpur
Trlpura

= or >10

6.68
6.93

7.34

Uk$1\8dweep

7.58

Maharashtra
Deihl
TamliNadu
Punjab
Chandlgarh

7.99
8.01
8.12
8.75
8.97

Andhra Pradesh

8.99

Gujarat
Rajasthan

9.02
9.36

Uttaranchal
Haryana
Pondlcheny

9.59
9.63
9.82

Goo

9.98

12 Nos.

.~",

/' ~
/
.
~'-- ~ Central Electricity Authority
/-----~,;-i;qr

17th Electric Power Survey

2.47 REVIEW OF FORECAST

FOR RURAL

The consumption of electrical energy in rural areas in the year 2011-2012 is estimated to
become 2.05 times the consumption in year 2003-2004 thus estimated to grow at a compounded
annual growth rate of 9.42% on All India basis. The consumption in domestic (rural) category shall
become 2.51 times at a CAGR of 12.21%, commercial (rural) 2.36 times at a CAGR of 11.31%,
inigation 1.75 times at a CAGR of 7.28% while other categories (industrial, public lighting, public
water works, etc.) 2.1 9 times at a CAGR of 10.32%.

ALL INDIA RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

lBoooO
140000
12oo
10oo

Boooo
60000
40000
20000

2OO3-<l4

2O.H2

15035

AU INDIA-COM

6379

~,.ALL INDIA-COM

35703

89742

54856

120364

t' AU INDIA.QTHERS
All INDIA-IRRIG

jI

....,

151999

ALL INDIA URBAN & RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION


400000
350000
300000
250000
20oo
150000
10oo
5oo

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-, 0

2010-11

2011-12

ALL INDIARURAL 183560

195220

211784

232739

255899

281053

310257

341924

377141

ALL INDIAURBAN 179239

192955

210470

231n1

255000

281035

309994

342400

378708

179

Chapter

II: Summ'-Il}' and Review

CHAPTER-III
SHORT TERM FORECAST
(CATEGORY WISE)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table

SUMMARY

3.1

ALL INDIA
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In Million kwh

Consumption

Categorres

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Uahtina
Public Water Works
lniaation
L T Industries
HT Industries
Railwav Traction
Non - Industrial
Total Consumption
- MkWh
T&DLossesl%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
Enerav ReQuirement - MkWh
Load Factor
% l
Peak load (MWl

2004 - 05

89932

96686

29576

31872

4196

31834

4668
10098
89884
33133

95977
9216

105087
9814

5499

6934

9511
87059

362799

388175
30.67%
171709
559884
79.99%
79906

30.80%
161500
524299

79.01%
75756

ADF-IS

1.034

PATTERN

2:005 06
106659
34847
4976
10936
96575
36242
113771
11046
7202
422254
29.51%
176742
598996
80.33%
85120

2006 - 07

Forecast
2007 - 08
2008 - 09

119688
38452
5440

134962
42596

11934
104219

13093
112626
44200
136712
12455
8270
510899
26.94%

39893
125449
11717

n17
464510
28.27%

5984

183036

188401

647546
79.02%
93547

699299
77.56%
102919

1.035

1.034

1.036

ALL INDIA
OF UTILIZATION
OF ELECTRICAL
(PUBLIC UTIUTIES)

152653
47305
6674
14393
121658
49086
148876
13381

2009-10

2010-

172443
52663
7397
15845
131357

11

194937
58755

9043
19281
152931
68135
192614
16913
10893
755847
21.97%
212812
968659
72.39%
152746
1.030

8865

14404
9500

562889
25.67%
194397
757287
76.33%
113261

620251
24.44%
200669
820920
75.10%
124780
1.032

1.031

54643
161999

220372
65666

8184
17468
141775
60944
176522
15569
10170
684324
23.21%
206880
891203
73.80%
137860

1.033

2011 - 12

ENER:3Y
p

Consumption

Categories

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)
24.79%
8.15%

Domestic
Commercial
lniaation
IndustlV
Others
Total

24.00%
35.23%
7.83%
100.00%

Utilisation

pattern

ForecaSt
2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

20d8 . 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 -12

24.91%
8.21%
23.16%

25.26%
8.25%
22.87%
35.53%
8.09%
100.00%

25.77%
8.28%
22.44%
35.59%
7.92%
100.00%

26.42%
8.34%
22.04%
35.41%
7.79%
100.00%

27.12%
8.40%
21.61%
35.17%
7.69%
100.00%

27.80%
8.49%
21.18%
34.93%
7.60%
100.00%

28.49%
8.59%
20.72%
34.70%
7.51%
100.00%

29.16%
8.69%
20.23%
34.50%
7.43%
100.00%

35.61%
8.12%
100.00%

Utilisation

2003-04

pattern 2011-12

Oth" .
7.8H

Indu.try
H.S~'

r~r'"~tlQn

20.:n

-----------------------------_.-~~~"--~~~------------~183

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority"

,:,~~~t//

Table 3.2
SUMMARY

NORTHERN REGION
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In Million kwh

Consumpllon

Categories

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)
29893

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Liohtino
Public Water Works
Irrioation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non - Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T & 0 Losses (%)

Forecast
2004 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

32110

35769
11644
1002

40221
12952
1084
3749

9565
866

10457

927

2988
21529
9111

3193
23983
9551
20460
1464
4597

19089
1393
3455
97889
36.65%
56644
154533
78.94%

T & 0 Losses MkWh


Enemv Reauirement - MkWh
Laad Factor
%\
Peak Load (MW)
ADF-IS

106743
35.36%

58403

22346

165146
75.45%
24988

t.130

1.090

3463
26737
10459
22604
2253

5018
118949
33.73%
60530
179479
76.82%
26670

29537
11460
26329
2412
5426
133170
32.05%
62817
195987
75.43%
29661

1.120

1.110

2007 08
45191
14464
1184
4062
32658
12559
29376
2565
5865
147923
30.44%
64717
212640
74.40%

2008 09

2009 - 10

50729
16126

2010 -11

2011 -12

63711

71246
22377
1716
5594
47519
18168
44430
3649
7967

56886
17982
1420
4768
39591
15097
35908
3091

230756
73.37%

1815B6
27.45%
68689
250274
72.33%

32628

35905

39502

20057
1560
5162
43425
16559
39899
3348
7385
201106
25.96%
70510
271616
71.29%
43495

1.105

1.100

1.095

1.090

1296
4400
36005
13768
32504
2823
6336
163987
28.93%
66769

6842

222668
24.48%
72173
294841
69.92%
48137
1.080

NORTHERN REGION
PATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY
(PUBLIC
Consumption

Categories

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)
30.54%
9.77%

Domestic
Commercial
Irriaation
Industrv
Others
Total

21.99%
28.81%
8.89%
100.00%

utilisation

pattern

06

2004 - 05

2005

30.08%
9.80%
22.47%
28.12%
9.54%
100.00%

30.07%,
9.79%
22.48%
27.80%
9.87%
100.00%

UTILITIES)

2006 - 07

2009 - 10

30.20%
9.73%
22.18%
28.38%
9.52%
100.00%

30.55%
9.78%
22.08%
28.35%
9.25%
100.00%

31.33%
9.90%
21.80%
28.09%
8.88%
100.00%

30.93%
9.83%
21.96%
28.22%
9.06%
100.00%

Utilisation

2003-04

pattern

Others
B.SO'

O~her"
8.89\

Irdg-~tiQn
n.3U

Irrigation
21.99'

Chapler III : Short Term Fore-cast (Category

Percentage
Forecast
2007 -08 2008 - 09

\Vise)

184

2010 11
31.68%
9.97"10
21.59'%
28.07%
8.68"10
100.00%

20ll-12

2011 - 12
32.00%
10.05%
21.34%
28.11%
- 8.50%
100,0Q.~

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.3
SUMMARY

WESTERN REGION
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In Million kwh

Consumption

Categories

Actual

Forecast

2004 ~05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

22496
7830
1007
2892
31177
11314
35759
4010
155
116641
31.83%
54449
171090
84.71%
23055

23824
8631
1045
3041
29764
11774
39849
4253
152
122333
32.70%
59449
181782
85.40%
24299

25973
9264
1140
3273
31041
12636
42688
4471
168
130655
31.71%
60656
191311
82.82%
26370

29119
10248
1262
3569
33011
13922
46442
4740
187
142499
30.71%
63154
205653
80.63%
29117

32508
11360
1429
3907
35161
15525
50515
5047
208
155659
29.43%
64911
220571
78.48%
32083

36307
12640
1628
4291
37335
17312
54947
5400
230
170090
28.16%
66659
236750
76.71%
35232

1.140

1.140

1.110

1.100

1.090

1.085

2003 - 04

2009-10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

40575
14089
1880
4723
39641
19308
59768
5806
256
186046
26.89%
68419
254465
74.95%
38759

45370
15726
2149
5202
42078
21536
65015
6270
284
203629
25.62%
70148
273777
73.19%
42699

50754
17574
2435
5732
44657
24023
70742
6803
315
223035
24.36%
71824
294860
71.45%
47108

1.080

1.075

1.070

(Base Year)
Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public LiQhtinQ
Public Water Works
Irriaation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railwav Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption
MkWh
T & D Losses
%l
T & D Losses - MkWh
Enerav Reauirement
Load Factor ( %
Peak Load MW\

- MkWh

AOF-IS

PATTD'IN

Consumption

Categones

Actual

2003 04

WESTERN REGION
OF UTiLiZATION OF ELECTRICAL
(PUBLIC UTiLiTIES)

ENERGY

Percentage
Forecast

2001- 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 09

1948X 0
7.06%
24.33%
42.20%
6.94%
100.00%

1988X 0
7.09%
23.76%
42.34%
693%
J.QQ ..:. oO%

2043X 0
7.19%
23.17%
42.36%
6.85%
100.00%

20887: 0
7.30%
22.59%
42.43%
6.80%
100.00%

2135X 0
7.43%
21.95%
42.48%
6.79%
100.00/0

2009-10

2010 - 11

2011 -12

(Base Year)

19297: 0
6.71%
26.73%
40.36%
6.91%
100.00%

Domestic
ICommercial
Ilrri ation
Industry
IOthers
ITota!

Utilisation

0
2181 X
2228 '0
2276X 0
7.57%
7.72%
7.88%
21.31%
20.66%
20.02%
42.50"'/0
42.50%
42.49%
6.83%
6,85%
6.81%
1OO.OOO/~- 100!iO%1100,OO%

pattern

-~~---~-l

2011-12

ot.h~r8
6,B51

C.mmercial
6.7H

Inoustry
40.]6\

----

-~---------

//"dg~'i0n
;1, It

- ----

---

185

Chapler

III : Shorl Tenn Forec<lst (Category'

Wise)

17th Electric Power Swvey

CentralElectricityAuthority~'~~_~.
'-~~

Table 3.4
SUMMARY

SOUTHERN REGION
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In MH!ion kwh

Consumption

Categories

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Liohtin
Public Water Works
Imaation
L T Industries
HT Industries
Railwav Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumotion - MkWh
%
T & D Losses
T & D Losses MkWh
EnerQY Ae uirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( %
Peak Load MW)
ADF-IS

2004 -05

26212

28703

9171
2289

8573
1900
2666

2892

32209
9930

33950
10246
25023

23414

1773
821

1727
797
107427
22.01%
30313
137740
71.06%
22127

114868
22.48%

33312
148180
74.18%
22805

1.060

1.050

Forecast
2007 - 08
2008 - 09

06

2006 - 07

31076
9952
2377
3115
38358

33874
10999
2602
3461
38979
12377

37294

41837
13759

45082
15402

28952

31150

33551
2285
964
159708

2005

11210

26962
1887
879

2002
914

12223

41166
13669

2841

3178

3892

4391

2133

949

123815
21.80%
34526
158341
75.98%
23790

134160
20.85%
35341
169501
75.46%
25642

146078
19.81%
182173
74.84%
27788

1.080

1.075

1.070

36095

2009-10

2010 - 11

45514
15376
3481
4958
48650
17366

36175
2443

18.84%

37081
196789
74.22%
30267

50433
17394
3814
5611

55971
19766

52544
19687
39087

56761
22468
42270
2867
1086

2642

1018

2011 -12

1052

4181

6363

174980

192263

211732

18.04%
38517
213497
73.60%
33112

17.28%
232426
72.64%
36527

16.46%
41711
253443
71.67%
40367

1.060

1.050

1.040

1.065

40164

SOUTHERN REGION
PATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY
(PUBLIC
Consumption

Categones

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)
24.40%
7.98%
29.98%
31.04%
6.60%
100.00%

Domestic
Commercial
lrriQation
Industry
Others
Total

Utilisation

pattern

UTILITIES)

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

24.99%
7.98%
29.56%
30.70%
6.77%
100.00%

25.10%
8.04%
29.36%
30.83%
6.67%
100.00%

25.25%
8.20%
29.05%
30.81%
6.69%
100.00%

Percentage
Forecast
2007 08
2008 - 09
25.53%
8.37%
28.64%
30.74%
6.72%
100.00%

25.78%
8.56%
28.23%
30.65%
6.79%
100.00%

Utilisation

2003-04

,-

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 -12

26.01%
8.79%
27.80%
30.60%
6.80%
100.00%

26.23%
9.05%
27.33%
30.57%
6.82%
100.00%

26.43%
9.34%
2681%
30.58%
6.85%
100.00%

pattern

othen
6.60'

Irri,,,.tlon
n.8H

Chapter III : Short TClm Forecast (Category Wise)

186

2011-12

~itiU ..

i#5.rt':-:..,:'

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table 3.5
SUMMARY

EASTERN REGION
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In Million kwh

Consumption

Categories

Actual

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 06

2006

07

Forecast
2007 08 2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

(Base Year)
Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Uchtino
Public Water Works

Irrl atlan
LT Industries
HT Industries
Rallwav Traction
Non - Industrial
Total ConsumDtlon
T&DLosses(%l

- MkWh

T & 0 Losses MkWh


Enernv Reauirement
Load Factor
%)
Peak Load (MW

- MkWh

ADF-IS

9905
3193
364
781
2014
1224
16752
2086
649
36968
32.39%
17714
54682
72.04%
8664

10420
3148
366
819
2096
1365
18650
2325
838
40027
30.75%
17778
57805
70.82%
9317

1.050

1.070

PATTERN

Consumption
1

Categories

1657
20341
2435
587
44009
29.56%
18466
62475
70.94%
10053

14151
3685
414
926
2645
1810
22452
2563
616
49161
28.16%
19269
68430
71.26%
10962

17174
3903
445
983
2807
1977
24300
2710
648
54946
26.98%
20296
75244
69.70%
12323

1.070

1.065

1.060

11941
3482
386
874

2307

EASTERN REGION
OF UTILIZATION
OF ELECTRICAL
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)

Actual

885
61914
25.76%
21481
83394
69.02%
13794

25371
4386
513
1104
3276
2361
28594
3065
724
69394
24.50%
22517
91911
68.30%
15361

30466
4645
549
1177
3506
2577
30880
3310
758
77869
23.10%
23397
101266
67.58%
17105

33441
3593
800
87521
21.72%
24281
111802
66.86%
19088

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

21067
4137

478
1040
3055
2160
26418

2873

36373
4918
586
1250
3751

2809

ENERGY
Percentage
Forecast

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

26.03%
7.87%
5.24%
50.00%
10.86%
100.00%

27.13%
7.91%
5.24%
49.99%
9.73%
100.00%

28.79%
7.50%
5.18%
49.35'%
9.19%
100.00%

31.26%
7.10%
5.11%
47.82%
8.71%
100.00%

34.03%
6.68%
4.93%
46.16%
8.20%
100.00%

36.56%
6.32%
4.72%
44.61%
7.79%
100.00%

39.12%
5.97%
4.50%
42.97%
7.44%
100.00%

41.56%
5.62%
4.29%
41.42%
7.12%
100.00%

(Base Year)

26.79%
8.64%
5.45%
48.63%
10.50%
100.00%

Domestic
Commercial
IrrlQation
IndustlV
Others
Total

Utilisation

pattern

2003-04

Utilisation

pattern

2011-12

Oth~ro
7.12'

Oth~n

10.50'

187

Chapter III: Short Term Po["ccast(Category Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.6
NORTH EASTERN REGION
SUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
COflsumpt!on

Categones

Domestic
Commercia! & Miscellaneous
Public Liahtina
Public Water Works
Irriaation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non - Industrial
Total Cansum tion - MkWh
T&DLossesl%
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Enerav Renuirement - MkWh
Load Factor { %
Peak Load (MW)
ADF-IS

Actual
2003 04
(Base Year)
1352

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

1553

1812

2224

384
52
182
130
249
964
0
428

436
34
152
90
192

3742
8.45%
2338

1105

1176

0
511

0
535

2.42<'/0
1112

1178

1255

1.210

1.140

1.160

1.140

Categories

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
IndustrY"
Others
Total

Utilisation

Actual
2003 - 04
(Base Year)
36.14%
10.26%
3.48%
32.42%
17.69%
100.00%

pattern

2412

2004 - 05
38.13%
10.70%
2.20%
31.85%
17.12%
100.00%

38.78%
10.07%
2.86%
31.02%
17.27%
100.00%

41.59%
9.92%
2.77%
29.78%
15.94%
100.00%

.~~,

Chapter Ill: Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise:

..--j
188

1554

1641

0
636

0
665

964
109
340
243
657
1731

0
696

7996
23.59%
2469

9176
22.06%
2598

10576
20.65%
2753

10465
60.78%

11774
60.38%

13329
59.98%

1537

9325
61.35%
1735

1966

2226

2537

1,120

1.100

1.090

1.085

1.080

ENERGY

Forecast
2007 - 08
2008 - 09
44.00%
9.91%
2.68%
28.59%
14.82%
100.00%

46.69%
9,83%
2.60%
27.13%
13.75%
100,00%

Utilisation

2005 - 06 2006 - 07
!

2003-04

Iniga'_,,,-

5836

871
100
314
221
575

6970
25.25%
2355

NORTH EASTERN REGION


OF UTILIZATION
OF ELECTRICAL
(PU8L~G UTILITIES)

,-

2011 -12

4789

775
91
290
200
502

0
607

6098
27.65%
2331
8428
62.58%

201011

3949

1456

0
580

31.08%

2009 - 10

685
82
269
181
435

1370

0
556
5348

7760
63.84%
1388

3255

604
75
248
164
373

1274

4674
35.07%
2525
7198
65.47%

6080

2683

531
68
228
148
319

4073
40.29%
2749
6822
66.09%

PATTERN

Consumption

471
62
211
134
274

In Million kwh

Forecast
2007 08
2008 - 09

Percentage
-

2009 - 10

2010 -11

2011 -12

49.38%
9.69%
2.50%
25.72%
12.71%
100.00%

52.18%
9.50%
2.41%
24.15%
11.76%
100.00%

55.19%
9.11%
2.30%
22.58%
10.83%
100.00%

pattern

2011~12

,,{!iz~r

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity AulhOrtly

Table 3.7
SUMMARY

ISLANDS
OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)
In Million kwh

ConsumptionCategories

Actual
2003 - 04

200405

2005- 06

2006 07
+

Forecast
2007 - 08 2008 - 09

200910

2010 - 11

201112

(Base Year)

Domestlc
Commercial & MisceUaneous
Public LiqhtinQ
Pcblic Water Works
IrriQation
L T Industries
HT Industries
Railwav Traction
Non - Industrial
Total Consumption

- MkWh

T&DLosses(%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
Enerqy Requirement
MkWh
Load Factor
%)
Peak Load (MW)

74
31
7
1
0
5
0
0
14
132
24.21%
42
174
49.03%

41

74
29
7
1
0
5
0
0
14
130
12.58%
19
149
48.63%
35

PATTERN

Utilisation

pattern

87
34
9
1
0
6
0
0
16
152
20.53%
39
192
49.07%
45

99
38
10
1
- 0
6
0
0
18
172

20.14%
43
215
49.19%
50

113
43
11
-1
0
7
0
0 ___
~
195
19.75%

48
243
49.31%
56

ISLANDS
OF UTILIZATION
OF ELECTRICAL
(PUBLIC UTILITIES)

2003-04

130
49

148
54
13
2
2
0
0
7
8
0
0
Oc0
22
-.--- 24
249

-4-

~-

1_

119.340

18,92%

53
274
149.41%
63
I

58
307
49.49';0
71

-+-

191
68
15

68
61
14
--

Hi

---1=
~~
__~.__ ~2_
o

--------

--1

___
--"-______
0
26 ___.L__ ~_
f---:-::-- 280 _~ __ }J~
18.49%
18.06%

--I

--'. -----3:~

l------

j~~-

L~S5~~=t~~~~:~iI

-~

ENERGY
Percentage

Utilisation

pattern

2011-12

Indu9try

Inigatior.
O.OOt

J.n'
Irrigation
0,00'

COII'illercial
21.5"

".63\

00.74\
2l.45\

189

Chapter III Short Term I-"orccast (Category

Wlsl'l

/1

17th Electric Power SUNey

Central Electricity Authority

k!~):'
:~~
!

Table 3.8
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE


ENERGY REQUIREMENT AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (UTILITIES)
(2003-04 to 2011-12)
InMillion
kWh

State
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
jJammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
!UttarPradesh
Uttaranchal
1Chandigarh

Actual
2003-04
(Base Year)

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

Forecast
2007-08
200809

2009-10

2Ul0-ll

2011-12

19779
4016
6780
30520
26570
41424
4197
1087

20562
4516
7387
32851
30159
42581
4852
1286

22842
4861
7528
35918
32157
46795
5231
1384

24955
6871
8004
39279
34222
50933
5654
1505

27240
7539
8532
42908
36481
55703
6116
1638

29711
7909
9111
46823
39224
60883
8822
1783

32385
8206
9746
51044
42195
66527
7176
1942

10441
55591
45417
72655
2117

38417
9504
11202]
60489
48916,
792681
8445
2308

154533

165146

179479

195987

212640

230756

250274

271616

294841]

1979
50292
10055
27171
76667
1821
1104

2323
53167
11556
29401
82043
2105
1186

2635
53610
12687
31969
86495
2532
1382

2924
57671
13932
34833
91875
2842
1575

3211
62303
15239
37145
97889
3190
1794

3509
67284
16668
39727
103940
3579
2042

3839
72773
18222
42605
110690
4013
2324

4193
78807
19921
45797
117918
4499
2643

4583
85445]
21785
49338
125661
5042
3005

:Sub Total(WR)

171090

181782

191311

205653

220571

236750

254465

273777

IAndhraPradesh
IKarnataka
Kerala
Tami!Nadu
I Pondicherry

44440
31317
12503
47450
2030

48573
33688
12547
51147
2225

52853
35835
13498
53717
2439

57401
37825
14365
57238
2673

62338
39989
15217
61695
2934

67966
42574
16096
66911
3242

74289
45824
17025
72769
3590

81404
49458
18077
79507
3981

89032
53540.
192301
87222
4419!

:Sub Total(SR)

137740

148180

158341

169501

182173

196789

213497

232426

2534431

'Sub Total(NR)
Goa

IGujarat
IChhattisgartJ
,Madhya Pradesh
I Maharashtra
iD.& N. Haveli
'Daman & Diu
i

35280
87n

n81

294860 :1

Bihar
!Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
ISikkim

5908
10105
13375
25109
i8i!

6115
11057
13856
26573
204

7023
12431
15000
27802
219

8188
13903
16410
29697
232

10070
15249
18076
31601
248

12551
16809
20000
33768
267

14813
18631
22211
35971
286

17286
20801
24508
38370
301

19905
23408
27149j
41020
320,

Sub Total(ER)

54682

57805

62475

68430

75244

83394

91911

101266

1118021

iAssam
'Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
!Tripura
A.runachal
Pradesh
Mizoram

3154
504
959
332
670
175
276

3810
469
1195
324
644
158
222

3862
544
1243
375
688
210
276

4068
589
1397
429
749
233
295

4395
641
1517
483
817
259
316

4922
702
1649
531
896
288
337

5653
766
1791
598
984
320
353

6529
838
1946
646
1084
356
375

7585
932
2101
698
1229
386
398

Sub fotal(N~R)
!ISLANDS
t.ndman & Nir.obar
Lai\shadweep

6080

6822

7198

7760

8428

9325

10465

11774

13329

i53
22

126
22

168
24

190
26

215
28

243
30

274
33

307
36

559884

598996

647546

699299

757287

820920

891203

i,Total
(AllIndia)

::'24299

Chart'.::r III: Shol1 Tern'. FOi-ecast (Category

Wise)

190

344'
40
968659

..
i~1

, Central

/~

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 3.9
ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE
PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (UTILITIES)
(2003-04 to 2011-12)

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh

3797
4029
824
1213
6595
4985
7231
932
264

4104
4408
1165
7201
5401
8033
1011
285

4431
4819
1278
1434
7853
5863
8971
1097
307

4807
5265
1341
1566
8556
6421
10017

1317

1191

332

InMW

5210
5747
1391

1713
9312

7039
11188
1295
359

22346

24988

26670

29661

32628

35905

39502

43495

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

337
7204
1569
4800
11868
315
190

385
7642
1749
4846
12464
391
223

415
7780
1882
5157
13390
387
259

460
8566
2100
5676
14498
435
294

505
9475
2334
6113
489
334

552
10484
2594
6605
17062
550
379

604
11625
2883
7157
18543
617
430

660
12915
3205
7773
20169
693
487

3565i
8462
21954!
778'
552

Sub Total

(WR)

23055

24299

26370

29117

321:83

35232

38759

42699

47108

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
T ami! Nadu
Pondicherry

7395
5475
2427
7614
323

7978
5613
2421
8123
347

8619
5798
2563
8349
365

9382
6103
2712
8966
402

102.3
6480
2856
9741
444

11160
6928
3004
10649
493

12227
7489
3159
11675
549

13429
8118
3335
12860
612

14721,
8826
3528
14224
683i

22127

23097

23790

25642

27788

30267

33112

36527

40367 :

Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim

788
1815
1987
4454
53

980
1991
2217
4723
58

1129
2228
2395
4944
61

1335
2344
2638
5294
64

1666
2756
2927
5646
67

2123
3053
3257
6048
72

2562
3398
3633
6460
76

3059
3808
4020
6909
79

Sub Total (ER)

8664

9317

10053

10962

12323

13794

15361

17105

662
121
182
94
165
50
71

663
90
229
71
160
63
67

689
117
241
84
164
75
8S

731
134
273
95
177
81
91

796
145
299
107
192
87
96

903
157
327
117
209
94
10;

1049
170
359
131
228
101
105

1227
164
393
141
250
110
110

1443
203
428
152!
282
116
115

1112

1178

1255

1338

1537

1735

1966

2226

2537!

34
6

28
7

38
7

42
7

48
8

54
9

61
10

69
10

77,
11

Sub Total

ISUb Total

(NR)

(SR)

IBihar

Assam
Manipur
iMeghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal
Mizoram

Pradesh

Sub Total (NER)


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
Total

Allindia

75756

80189

85120

93547

191

15720

102919

Charter

113261

124780

137860

48137!
7211
14374:

3607
4296
4459,
7407
83
1

19088

152746

Ill Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authori~/;~!~//

i"
Table 3.10
ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE (UTILITIES)
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(2003-04 TO 2011-12)
InMillionkWh
State
'Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
UttarPradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh

Actual'
2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
(Base Year)
11903
12773
14332
15959
12916
13807
15384
17106
2737
3145
3459
4992
3534
3877
4301
4772
22465
24378
26869
29619
14720
16726
18799
21033
26103
27918
31267
34668
2662
3163
3501
3883
849
955
1038
1139

Forecast
2009-10
1n34
19000
5590
5301
32613
23515
38611
4308
1251

19786
21080
5983
5888
35869
26264
42962

2010-112011-12

1374

22036
23365
6331
6542
39409
29308
47777
5306
1510

24484
25878
6903
7270
43254
32682
53086
5890
1661

4760

27207;
28639
7617
8080
47427
36422
58908,,
6539:
1827'
1

Sub Total (NR)

97889

106743

118949

133170

147923

163987

181586

201106

Goa

1484
37972
6988
15908
51824
1547
917

1800
36988
8050
17267
55457
1768
1002

2058
37833
9041
19095
59332
2127
1170

2301
41275
10095
21154
53940
2396
1337

2546
45213
11225
23486
68963
2699
1526

2804
49501
12478
26113
74416
3038
1741

3090
54267
13859
29070
80355
3419
1985

3400
59555
15391
32392
86782
3847
2263

116641

122333

130655

142499

155659

170090

186046

203629

34085
23143
9096
39308
1795

37620
24781
9360
41286
1821

41246
26518
10272
43760
2000

45134
28747
11147
46935
2197

49534
31192
12037
50898
2418

54461
34059
12973
55536
2678

59921
37347
13977
60762
2973

66010
41050
15112
66786
3305

107427

114868

123815

134160

146078

159708

174980

192263

211732;

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim

3722
7618
7157
18380
90

3944
8446
7815
19716
107

4635
9689
8564
20999
123

5527
10922
9846
22728
138

6948
11994
11388
24460
156

8648
13222
13200
26466
178

10665
14648
15326
28555
201

12705
16339
17646
30962
218

14929
18364
20362
33626
240

Sub Total (ER)

36968

40027

44009

49161

54946

61914

69394

77869

87521

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

1920
175
797
196
414
109
130

2250
178
856
183
380
101
126

2514
228
982
225
423
137
163

2868
271
1118
270
479
156
186

3296
320
1229
319
544
177
212

3815
379
1352
366
618
201
239

4438
444
1487
431
704
229
265

5190
519
1635
485
802
260
286

6106
606
1786
544
940
287
307'

Sub Total (NER)


ISLANDS

3742

4073

4674

5348

6098

6970

7996

9176

105761

113
19

110
20

131
21

149
23

170
25

193
27

219
30

247
33

278,
36

Gujarat
Chhatlisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
DamAn & Diu
Sub Total (WR)

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Total (SR)

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep
Total (,D.II.I~ ____

__~~2?~!;!

388175
------

Chapter If[ : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

-.-

422254

464510

]92

510899

562889

620251

684324

222668
3744
65425
17092
36131
93737,
4326!
2579;
223035

72766 '
45241
16345
73703
3677

755847

i $1301

,}fJ/~-~lJr'Central

17th Electric Power Surve.L/

Electricity Authority

Table 3.11
TRANSMISSION

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISE


& DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (2003-04 TO 2011-12)
(UTILITIES)
.:

States

200304
(Base Year)

2004-05

2005~06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

"2009-10

2010-11

201112

39.03
32.85
30.35
47.52
25.79
44.54
34.43
34.81
25.75

37.03
32.65
28.85
42.87
25.19
41.54
33.18
33.06
25.05

35.03
31.45

33.03

27.35

25.85
37.87
23.99
35.54
30.68
29.56
23.65

31.03
29.05
24.35
35.37
23.39
33.04
29.43
27.81
22.95

29.03
27.85
22.85
32.87
22.79
30.54
28.18
26.06
22.25

27.03
26.65
21.35
30.37
22.19

25.03
25.45
19.85
27.87
21.59
25.54
25.68
22.56
20.85

I
IDelhi
Haryana
IHimachal Pradesh
;Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
,Uttarnanchal
:Chandigarh

iSub Total (NA)


I

4096
34.70

31.85
47.87
26.39
44.60
36.98
36.56
21.94
36.65

35.36

33.73

40.37
24.59
38.54
31.93
31.31
24.35
32.05

30.25

30.44

28.93

27.45

28.04
26.93

24.31
21.55
25.96

24.48

Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

24.99
24.50
30.50
41.45
34.12
15.08
16.88

22.50
30.43
30.34
41.27
32.40
16.00
15.56

21.90
29.43
28.74
40.27
31.40
16.0u
15.36

21.30
28.43
27.54
39.27
30.40
15.70
15.16

20.70
27.43
26.34
36.77
29.40
15.40
14.96

20.10
26.43
25.14
34.27
28.40
15.10
14.76

19.50
25.43
23.94
31.77
27.40
14.80
14.56

18.90
24.43
22.74
29.27
26.40
14.50
14.36

18_30
23.43
21.54
26.77
25.40
14.20
14.16

iSub Total (WR)

31.83

32.7)

31.71

30.71

29.43

28.16

26.89

25.62

24_36

IAndhra Pradesh
I Karnataka
iKerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicheny

23.30
26.10
27.25
17.16
11.60

22.5E
26.44
25.40
19,28
18.15

21.96
26.00
23.90
18.50
18.00

21.37
24.00
22.40
18.00
17.80

20.54
22.00
20.90
17.50
17.60

19.87
20.00
19.40
17.00
17.40

19.34
18.50
17.90
16.50
17.20

18.91
17.00
16.40
16.00
17.00

18.27
15.50
15.00
15.50
16.80

:Sub Total (SA)

22.01

22.48

21.80

20.85

18.81

18.84

18.04

17.28

16.4E

:Bihar
'Jharkhand
iOrissa
:West Bengal
'Sikkim

37.00
24.61
46.49
26.80
51.13

35.50
23.62
43,60
25.80
47.47

34.00
22.06
42.91
24.47
4~.03

32.50
?:1.44
40.00
23.47
40.60

31.00
21.35
37.00
22.60
36.91

29.50
21.34
34.00
21.62
33.44

28.00
21.38
31.00
20.61
29.89

26.50
21.45
28.00
19.31
27.58

25.00
21.55
25.00
18.02
24.89

Sub Total (EA)

32.39

30.75

29.56

28.16

28.98

25.76

24.50

23.10

21.72

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
ITripura
Arunachal Pradesh
IrJlizoram
,

39.31
65.18
16.89
41.03
38.17
37.50
52.93

40.95
62.13
28.38
43.46
40.99
36.00
43.39

34.90
58.00
20.98
39.95
38.52
34.50
41.00

29.50
54.00
20.00
36.97
36.04
33.00
37.00

25.00
50.00
18.97
33.99
33.46
31.50
33.00

22.50
46.00
18.02
31.06
31.02
30,00
29.00

21.50
42.00
17.00
27.97
28.50
28.50
25.00

20.50
38.00
16.00
24.98
26.02
27.00
24.00

19.50
35.00
15.00
22.01
23.50
25.50
23.00

'Sub Total (NER)


ISLANDS

38.45

40.29

35.07

31.08

27.65

25.25

23.59

22.06

20.65

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep

25.95
11.85

13.00
10.20

22.00
10.14

21.50
10.10

21.00
10.05

20.50
9.99

20.00
10.01

19.50
10.01

19.00
9.99

Total (All India}

30.80

3Q.57

29.51

28.27

26.94

25.67

24.44

23.21

21.97

:Goa
'Gujarat
:Chhattisgarh

193

Chapter

Ill'

Short 1'cnn ForeC<lst (Cat<:gl)1"\' Wis':)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity AuthoritY/~~~~;:

-----;~/
!t"

Table 3.12
Annual

Stales.

'

Electric

2003-04

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE


Load factor at Power Station Bus Bars (2003-04 TO 2011-12)
(UTILITIES)

2004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10

tn percer,tage
2010-112011-12

(Base Year)

Punjab
Rajasthan
,Uttar Pradesh
! Uttarnanchal
,Chandigarh

69.97
68.88
68.42
61.04
61.97
73.14
78.43
65.01
58.81

68.53
64.82
67.34
72.32
62.07
74.93
75.38
64.27
59.31

68.43 '
64.72
67.34
70.85
62.17
73.63
73.88
64.07
59.81

60.31

68.23
64.52
67.34
67.90
62.37
71.03
70.88
63.67
60.81

68.13
64.42
67.34
66.42
62.47
69.73
69.38
63.47
61.31

68.03
64.32
67.34
64.95
62.57
68.43
67.88
63.27
61.81

68.00
64.22
67.34
63.47
62.67
67.13
66.38
63.07
62.31

68.00
64.12
67.34
62.00
62.77
65.83
64.88
62.87
62.81

'Sub Total

78.94

75.45

76.82

75.43

74.40

73.37

72.33

71.29

69.92

67.04
79.69
73.15
64.62
75.67
66.01
66.31

68.81
79.42
75.41
69.26
75.14
61.46
60.73

72.53
78.66
76.95
70.76
73.74
74.60
60.93

72.53
76.86
75.75
70.06
72.34
74.50
61.13

72.53
75.06
74.55
69.36
70.94
74.40
61.33

72.53
73.26
73.35
68.66
69.54
74.30
61.53

72.53
71.46
72.15
67.96
68.14
74.20
61.73

72.53
69.66
70.95
67.26
66.74
74.10
61.93

72.53
67.86
69.75
66.56
65.34
74.00
62.13

;Sub Total (WR)

84.71

85.40

82.82

80.63

78.48

76.71

74.95

73.19

71.45

:Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

68.60
65.30
58.81
71.14
71.84

72.31
68.51
59.15
71.88
73.11

70.00
70.55
60.12
73.45
76.32

69.84
70.75
60.47
72.88
75.92

69.68
70.45
60.82
72.30
75.52

69.52
70.15
61.17
71.72
75.12

69.36
69.85
61.52
71.15
74.72

69.20
69.55
61.87
70.57
74.32

69.04
69.25
62.22
70.00
73.92

!SUb Total

71.06

74.18

75.98

75.46

74.84

74.22

73.60

72.64

71.67

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim

85.59
63.56
76.84
64.35
39.63

71.23
63.39
71.34
64.22
40.15

71.01
63.70
71.50
64.19
40.98

70.02
67.72
71.01
64.03
41.38

69.00
63.15
70.50
63.89
42.25

67.49
62.85
70.10
63.74
42.33

66.00
62.59
69.79
63.56
42.96

64.51
62.36
69.60
63.40
43.49

63.00
62.20
69.50
63.22
44.01

,SUb Total

72.04

70.82

70.94

71.26

69.70

69.02

68.30

67.58

66.86

65.61
59.49
59.50
52.09
45.95
28.63
37.82

63.99
53.07

Mizoram

54.56
47.52
60.00
40.32
46.35
39.97
44.38

50.96
47.89
31.94
36.47

63.52
50.15
58.50
51.55
48.31
32.83
36.97

63.03
50.46
58.00
51.53
48.58
33.95
37.47

62.23
51.07
57.50
51.81
48.94
34.92
37.97

61.52
51.44
57.00
52.11
49.27
36.13
38.47

60.74
51.98
56.50
52.30
49.50
36.89
38.97

60.00
52.40
56.00
52.42
49.75
37.94
39.47

Delhi
I.Haryana
:Himachal

Pradesh

'IJammu & Kashmir

(NR)

68.33
64.62
67.34
69.37
62.27
72.33
72.38
63.87

'G08
Gujarat
Chhattis9am
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
I
D. & N. Haveli
I Daman & Diu
'I

(SA)

(EA)

'Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
,Nagaland
!Tripura

iArunachal Pradesh

59.00

Sub Total (NER)

62.42

66.09

65.47

63.84

62.58

61.35

60.78

60.38

59.98

,ISLANDS
;Andman & Nicobar
,Lakshadweep

51.00
38.49

51.00
38.48

51.00
38.72

50.99
38.99

51.00
39.25

51.00

39.50

51.00
39.76

51.00
40.00

51.00
40.01

:Total (All India)

79.01

79.99

80.33

79.02

77.56

76.33

75.10

73.80

72.39

Chapter III ; Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise)

194

, iO/tm

;'Tr~~~:.<!WCentral

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 3.13
ALL INDIA AND STATE!
ELECTRICAL

ENERGY

CONSUMPTION-

UT WISE
TOTAL-RURAL

(UTILITIES)

2003-04 - 2011-12
IN MkWh
State
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
I

Punjab

i Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh
Sub Total (NR)

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008 09 2009] a

271
6918
1890
1151
10464
6768
9343
1191
42
38039

306
8008
2383
1423
13137
8777
10905
1648
52

336
8853
3434
1589
14563
9884
12406
1831
58

370
9760
3837
1774
16102
11114
14222
2036
64

407
10732
4096
1980
17761
12476
16271
2264
71

447
11775
4320
2209
19545
13984
18571
2519

41399

46639

52952

59178

66057

278
7213
2170
1273
11828
7753
9352
1484
48

540
14085
5157
2746
23516
17505
23956
3124
96

73449

15167R

90724

1391
32615
7484
15116
39374
1368
695

1530
35792
8311
16844
42523
1539
792

1685
39321
9230
18788
45931
1730
903

668
22821
3774
8272
25394
619
321

810
22230
4347
8979
27174
707
351

926
22737
4882
9929
29072
851
409

1036
24806
5451
11000

1146
27173
6062

31331

33792
1079
534

1262
29750
6738
13579
36464
1215
609

61868

64598

68808

7505]

l-lIY99

89617

98042

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Total (SR)

25399
13944
5147
26189
1413
72092

27864
14863
5276
27502
1438

30585
15975
5819
29068

33481
17230
6325
30976

4040S

44447
21942
7952

1578

1732

36760
18520
6829
33272
1905

76943

83025

WJ746

472X6

Bihar
Jharkiland
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Total 1ER1

1732
854
2949
4196
44

2287
1139
3827
5186
70

3077
1272

Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Meghalaya
Manipur
! Mizoram
,
; Nagaland
Tripuia
Sub Total (NER)
ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
: Total (All India)

9775

1801
934
3161
4443
53
10393

24
672
572
100
24
103
248
1744

1847

31.7
93

30,8
9,7

183560

21
761
615
104
23
95
228

195220

1972
1027
3321
4750
61
11130

32
876
691
133
32
117
254
2135

35,9
lOA
211784

195

958
468

12509

4432

5676
82
14540

20101

7368
3594l-\

2099
i05923

4160
1428
5142
6264
96
17091

2011-12 1

12891
4693
2463
21461
15655
21133
2805
87

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveti
Daman & Diu
Sub Total (WA)

12213

2010 II

38866

2317
1]5524

491

1175g8

107331

48924
23999
8604
42191
2561

53888
26263
9313
45980

2833

126279

138276

5068
1613
5971
6887
111
19649

6102
1836
6879
7620

7225
2109
7938
8493

120
22557

132
25897

37
1004
769
160
37
135
287

42
1155
830
191
43
152
325

49
1336
897
229
49
174
367

56
1551
968
271
53
204
418

64
1808
1044
321
58
230
474

71
2119
1128
378
62
259
554

2430

2739

3102

3521

4000

4569

40.4
ILl

45.3

232TN

12,1
255899

50,7
n2
2~!H51

56.4
14.5
310257

62,1
15,9
341924

Chaplcr Ill: ShOli Tenn Forecast

69,5
17.5
377141

(Category

Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.14
ELECTRICAL

State

Sub Total (NR)


Gos
Gujarat
i Chhartisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
!

D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

Sub Total (WR)


Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

Sub Total (SR)


Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
i8ikkim

'Sub Total

(ER)

Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Meghalaya
Manipur
! Mizoram
Nagaland
,Tripura

Sub Total
,ISLANDS
Andman

(UTILITIES)

IN MkWh

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh

All INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION-TOTAL-URBAN
2003-04-2011-12

(NER)

& Nicobar

Lakshadweep

Total (All India)

11632
5998
847
2383
12001
7952
16760
1471
807
59851

12495
6594
975
2604
12550
8973
18566
1679
907
65344

14027
7376
1075
2878
13732
10022
20361
1854
985
72310

15622
8254
1558
3184
15056
11149
22262
2053
1081
80218

17365
9240
1753
3527
16511
12401
24389
2273
1186
88645

19380
10347
1887
3909
18109
13788
26691
2516
1303
97930

21589
11591
2011
4334
19865
15324
29206
2786
1432
108137

23993
12987
2210
4807
21793
17027
31953
3085
1574
119428

26667
14554
2460
5334
23912
18918
34952
3415
1731
131944

816
15151
3215
7636
26430
928
596
54772

990
14758
3703
8288
28283
1061
651
57735

1132
15095
4159
9166
30259
1276
760
61847

1266
16469
4644
10154
32610
1438
869
67448

1401
18040
5164
11274
35171
1619
992
73660

1542
19751
5740
12534
37952
1823
1132
80474

1700
21653
6375
13953
40981
2052
1290
88004

1870
23762
7080
15548
44259
2308
1471
96298

2059
26105
7863
17343
47806
2596
1677
105447

8686
9200
3949
13119
382
35335

9755
9918
4084
13784
383
37925

10661
10543
4453
14712
422
40790

11653
11516
4822
15959
465
44414

12773
12672
5208
17626
513
48792

14054
13958
5605
19589
579
53785

15475
15405
6025
21896
655
59456

17086
17051
6508
24594
743
65983

18878
18978
7032
27723
844
73456

1991
6764
4209
14184
45
27193

2143
7512
4653
15273
54
29635

2663
8662
5243
16249
62
32879

3240
9783
6019
17542
68
36652

3871
10722
6955
18783
75
40406

4688
11794
8058
20201
82
44823

5597
13035
9354
21669
90
49745

6602
14503
10767
23341
98
55312

7704
16256
12424
25133
108
61624

85

80

106

119

135

153

173

195

1248
225
75
106
93
165
1997

1489
241
73
103
89
152
2227

1638
291
95
131
109
169
2538

1864
349
111
148
135
192
2918

2141
399
129
169
167
219
3359

2479
455
150
190
192
251
3868

2887
519
173
212
227
285
4475

3382
590
199
228
255
327
5177

3987
658
228'
245
286
387
6007

81.3
9.7

79.2
10.3

95.1
11.0

108.7
11.9

124.7
12.9

142.3
14.1

162.6
15.4

184,3
17.0

208.5
18.7

179239

Chapter I1I : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

192955

210470

196

231771

255000

281035

309994

342400

216

378706

4~:i Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

:",

Table 3.15
ELECTRICAL
_
State

Actual
2003-04

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION DOMESTIC CONSUMERS
Forecast
2007-08
2008-09

2009-10

2010

11

In Million kwh

2011-12:

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2606
765
1383
5139
3133
9754
1084
307

2842
810
1526
5599
3376
10327
1010
357

3154
860
1719
6087
3873
11468
1137
390

3517
901
1935
6650
4558
12959
1279
436

3922
944
2179
7268
5336
14633
1438
488

4373
989
2453
7945
6220
16503
1617
547

4876
1037
2762
8687
7224
18578
1818
612

3108
9500
8363
2 860
2043
685

6064
1139
3497
10392
9657
23339
2297
766

29893

32110

35769

40221

45191

50729

56886

63711

71246

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
iMaharashtra
D. & N.'Haveli
Daman & Diu

373
5004
1217
3377
12460
26
39

438
5434
1385
3832
12662
30
42

495
5709
1612
4538
13538
36
45

540
6396
1875
5375
14844
41
49

586
7165
2181
6200
16276
47
53

634
8027
2538
7151
17846
53
57

691
8992
2952
8249
19568
61
62

753
10073
3435
9515
21456
70
67

818
11285
3996
10976
23526
80
73

Sub Total (WR)

22496

23824

25973

29119

32508

36307

40575

45370

50754

IAndhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
:Pondicherry

7526
4479
4014
9920
273

8098
4928
4297
11093
288

8801
5100
4584
12276
315

9645
5300
4932
13654
343

10628
5526
5327
15436
377

11750
5762
5754
17471
429

13003
6008
6215
19795
493

14434
6265
6713
22453
569

16035
6532
7251
25495
657

26212

28703

31076

33874

37294

41166

45514

50433

55971

iorissa
West Bengal
iSlkklm

1138
615
2627
5488
37

1209
884
2663
5622
42

1668
1055
2868
6303
47

2250
1385
3481
6983
53

3329
1821
4224
7740
60

4891
2399
5127
8583
67

6388
3163
6222
9523
76

8084
4174
7550
10571
86

9940
5512
9162
11663
96

,Sub Total (ER)

9905

10420

11941

14151

17174

21067

25371

30466

36373

Assam
:Manipur
I Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
iArunachal Pradesh
,Mizoram

697
104
159
113
156
41
82

884
113
172
120
148
31
85

992
124
221
127
183
56
107

1241
148
287
140
217
67
123

1553
177
328
147
257
80
141

1942
210
376
167
304
95
160

2429
250
430
189
359
113
178

3039
297
492
213
425
134
189

3801
352
564
242
528
150
201

,Sub Total (NER)


IISlANDS
,Andman & Nicobar
! Lakshadweep

1352

1553

1812

2224

2683

3255

3949

4789

5836

60
13

60
14

72
15

83
16

97
17

112
18

129
19

148
21

169
22

89932

96686

106659

119688

134962

152653

172443

194937

220372

(Base Year)

Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnancha!
Chandigarh
,lSub Total (NR)

5438

1087

ISUb Total (SR)

Bihar
Jharkhand

Total (All India)

197

Chaplcr

HI - Short Teml fOrcC3;-;t (Cat.:-g0ry Wi:,c)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,~A~7~J;

;~"'-;':';,;:fif:'
~'/

Table 3.16
ALL INDIA AND STATEJUT WISE
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
COMMERCIAL

ELECTRICAL

2714
755
244
485
1810
1489
2094
574
311

iDelhi
I

Haryana
Himachal
Jammu

Pradesh
& Kashmir

IPunjab
Rajasthan
~Uttar Pradesh
:Uttamanchal
IChandigarh

CONSUMERS

4611
1238
368
885
2658
2200
3122
844
400

Sub TOlal (NR)

9565

10457

11644

12952

14464

16126

17982

20057

22377

,Goa
I Gujarat
I Chhattisgarh
IMadhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
,D. & N. Haveli
!Daman & Diu

97
1834
211
712
4937
14
26

126
2034
242
830
5364
16
28

146
2116
278
929
5717
46
32

172
2439
307
1064
6181
50
35

202
2812
352
1218
6683
55
39

237
3269
403
1401
7226
61
43

281
3802
461
1619
7812
67
48

333
4421
528
1871
8447
74
53

396
5140
604
2162
9133
81
59

7830

8631

9264

10248

11360

12640

14089

15726

17574

Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

1762
1582
1277
3887
85

1894
1765
1310
4115
87

2159
1913
1462
4322
96

2491
2192
1639
4572
105

2866
2513
1828
4901
114

3298
2881
2039
5326
125

3794
3304
2275
5866
137

4366
3790
2538
6551
150

5024
4348
2831
7399
164

Sub Total (SR)

8573

9171

9952

10999

12223

13669

15376

17394

19766

284
185
518
2184
22

301
199
535
2089
24

323
218
544
2370
26

351
241
585
2479
29

382
267
629
2593
32

417
296
678
2712
35

464
324
732
2838
38

495
352
786
2970
42

640
382
841
3109
46

3193

3148

3482

3685

3903

4137

4386

4645

4918

229
12
31
15
36
53
7

279
12
39
18
33
49
7

276
14
61
23
37
53
7

304
15
87
20
40
58
8

334
17
116
22
44
63
9

367
19
149
24
49
68
10

404
21
186
26
54
74
11

441
23
228
28
60
80
12

480
25
263
30
66
86
13

384

436

471

531

604

685

775

71

964

27
4

25
4

29
5

33
5

37
6

42
7

47
7

52
8

58
10

29576

31872

34847

38452

42596

47305

52663

58755

65666

Sub Total

(WR)

iAndhra Pradesh
,Kamataka

Bihar
;Jharkhand
:Orissa
West Bengal
8ikkim
Sub Total (ER)
Assam
:Manipur
:IMeghalaya
Nagaland
ITripura
Arunachal Pradesh
IMizoram
,
I

Sub Total (NER)

ISLANDS
,Andman & Nicobar
,Lakshadweep

I
Total

(All India)

..---

Chapter fII : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

198

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.17
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATEfUT


ENERGY CONSUMPTION

WISE
PUBLIC LIGHTING
In Million kwh

State

Actual
2003
04
(Base Year)

2004

2005

2006

188
37
10
44
100
103
344
27
13

11

12

246
46
13

49
108
114
322
46
15

54

59

116
128
352

125
144
385
51
16

Sub Total

866

927

21
176
39
128
632
8
3

31
193
47
130
632
8
3

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu
Sub Total

(WR)

1007

'Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicheny
Sub Total

776
569
169
371
15

(SR)

1045
1035

627
187
423
17

234

06

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
iUttarnanchal
~Chandigarh
(NR)

223
38

05

42

49
16
1002

35
203
46
166
678
9
4
1140

980
685
209
485
17

40
221
49
184
753
9
5

271

258
48
14
65
134
172
422

52
15
71
144
207
461
57
18

54

17
1184

1296

45
241
52
204
871
10
6

52
263
55
226
1014

11
7

2009

285
55
16
77
155
248
505
60
19

10

2010 - 11

299
59
18
84
166
298
552
63
19

1420

1560

60
287
57
250
1206
12
8

68
313
60
277
1408
13
10

2011 - 12

314
84
19

92
179
357
604

67
20
1716

78
341
63
307
1621

13
12

1262

1429

1628

1880

2149

1068
745
236
535
18

1184
810
256
592
18

1269

1383

1508

1644

1086

1201

2602

2841

3178

888
279
723
19

982
303
793
20

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim

28
43
45
228
20

29
46
47
215
29

31
51
51
218
35

33
66
55
234
37

34
62
60
250
40

36
68
64
268
42

38
74
69
286
45

40
80
75
306
48

42
87
81
326
51

ISub Total

364

366

386

414

445

478

513

549

586

Assam
Manipur
! Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

16
3
2
4
8
7
12

7
3
1
1
7
9
6

16
4
2
5
8
16
12

16
4
3
6
9
17
13

18
4
3
7
9
19
15

19
5
3
8
10
22
16

20
5
4
9
11
24
18

21
6
4
10
12
27
20

23
6
5
12
13
30
22

Sub Total
ISLANDS

52

34

62

66

75

82

91

100

109

6
1

6
1

8
1

8
1

9
2

10
2

11
2

12
2

12
2

(NER)

IAndman & Nicobar


~Lakshadweep

4196

l~~t~~~_llndia~_
-----------

4668

4976

5440

-------

6674

5984

7397

3814

358
957
21

2289

3481

329
870
20

2435

1900

(ER)

2377

1084

07

Forecast
2007 - 08
2008 - 09

8184

4181

9043

-----------

199

Chapter III : Shan Term Forecast (Category

Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,?~~~.::'

....."1ii..

Table 3.18
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND ST A TElUT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION
PUBLIC WATER WORKS
In Million kwh

Actual

Stare

'

Forecast

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

200910

2010-11

2011-12"

328
349
313
339
311
1010
621
166
26

344
390
350
366
338
1082
672
178

361
436
393
396
368
1159
727
191

29

32

379
487
440
427
400
1241
786
204
36

398
544
492
461
435
1330
850
218
40

418
608
544
498
472
1424
919
233
44

439
680
606
538
513
1526
994
250

21

312
316
271
314
285
943
574
156
23

Sub Total (NR)

2988

3193

3463

3749

4062

44()0

4768

5162

5594

Goa
;Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
10. & N. HaveJi
Daman & Diu

109
746
69
470
1493
3
1

125
778
78
510
1545
3
1

143
790
80
565
1689
4
1

163
874
88
602
1836
5
1

186
964
97
659
1995
5
2

211
1072
107
726
2168
6
2

250
1193
117
798
2356
6
2

297
1328
129
879
2561
6
2

354
1478
142
967
2783
7
3

iSub Total

(WR)

2892

3041

3273

3569

3907

4291

4723

5202

5732

IAndhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

411
1277
228
728
22

536
1414
157
760
24

514
1562
205
808
25

568
1749
223
893
27

628
1969
252
1015
29

694
2222
283
1160
31

768
2510
319
1327
33

850
2838
360
1528
35

940
3211
406
1768
38

:Sub Total

2666

2892

3115

3461

3892

4391

4958

5611

6363

184
50
134
413

190
54
142
434

204
59
160
451

235
71
187
488
2

252
78
203
504
2

271
85
220

219
65
173
469
1

291
93
238
552
4

313
100
258
575
4

781

819

874

926

983

1040

1104

1177

1250

60
8
26
3
62
6
19

37
9
25
0
56
8
18

65
10
43
3
61
7
23

70
12
44
4
66
7
25

76
14
46
4
72
8
28

82
16
48
5
73
8
31

88
19
51
6
85
9
32

95
21
53
6
93
10
36

103
25
55
7
101
10
38

182

152

211

228

248

269

290

314

340

1
0

1
0

1
0

1
0

2
0

2
0

9511

10098

10936

11934

13093

14393

15845

17468

19281

2003-04
J

'Deihl
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
:Punjab
i Rajasthan
:Uttar Pradesh
,Uttarnanchal

300
317
251
286
252
863
567
131

IChandigarh
i

(SR)

200405

(Base Year)

49

!Bihar
;Jharkhand
IOrissa
West Bengal
'Sikkim
;Sub Total

(ER)

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
i Nagaland
!Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram
iSub Total (NEA)
i ISLANDS
IAndman & Nicobar
! Lakshadweep

IiTatal

(AU India)

---

-----

..--.

Chapter III . Short Term forecast (Category Wise)

200

ti25

/~~?central

nrl

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 3.19
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION
IRRIGATION-PUMPSETS/STATE

TUBEWELLSIIRRIGATION

SCHEMES
In Million kwh

State
Deihl
Haryana
'Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
IPunjab
IRajasthan
,Uttar Pradesh
,Uttarnanchal
Chandigarh

Actual
200304
(Base Year)
91
5514
20
116
6243
4274
4952
318
2

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

72
5682

72
6331

6990

72

Forecast
2007-08
2008-09
72

2009-10

2010-11

72
8438
59
207
11647
7887
7029
664
3

72
9230
70
236
12909
8580
7775
717
3

72
10068

2011-12
72

10955
93
306
15699
10081
9474
836

25

32

41

128
7411
5322
4853
488
2

142
8354
6029
5248
527
2

159
9372
6613
5720
569
2

7692
50
182
10468
7232
6346
615
3

21529

23983

26737

29537

32658

36005

39591

43425

47519

IGUiarat
Chhattisgarh
IMadhya Pradesh
iMaharashtra
& N. Haveli
:Daman & Diu

18
14361
637
5583
10572
5
2

17
12090
1058
5859
10733
5
3

18
12177
1184
6243
11410
6
3

20
12902
1377
6652
12049
7
3

22
13652
1519
7236
12721
8
4

24
14339
1659
7872
13427
9
4

27
15078
1790
8563
14168
10
4

30
15858
1911
9316
14947
12
5

34
16683
2024
10134
15764
13
5

i Sub

Tolal (WR)

31177

29764

31041

33011

35161

37335

39641

42078

44657

IAndhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
;Tami! Nadu
IPondiCherry

13467
9006
212
9406
118

14433
9371
201
9825
120

15722
10032
233
10248
123

17101
10753
251
10747
126

18603
11506
273
11326
129

20236
12457
296
11960
133

22013
13548
322
12629
137

23946
14768
352
13336
142

26049
16099
384
14082
146

Sub Total (SA)

32209

33950

36358

38979

41837

45082

48650

52544

56761

1029
56
181
749
0

1061
61
183
792
0

1142
71
254
840
0

1286
79
288
892
0

1443
89
326
949
0

1577
98
369
1011
0

1674
106
417
1079
0

1772
114
470
1150
0

1871
123
530
1227

2014

2096

2307

2545

2807

3055

3276

3506

3751

50
1
0
0
79
0
0

18
0
1
0
71
0
0

50
2
1
0
80
0
2

55
2
1
0
88
0
2

61
3
1
0
97
0
3

67
4
1
0
106
0
4

73
5
1
0
117
0
5

81
5
1
0
129
0
5

88
6
1
0
142
0
6

130

90

134

148

164

181

200

221

243

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

87059

89884

96575

104219

112626

121658

131357

141775

152931

Sub Total (NA)


iGoa

10.

IBihar
!Jharkhand
!Orissa
'West Bengal
ISikkim

81

269
14259
9311

8588
774
3

Sub Total (ER)


I

iAssam
;Manipur
iMeghalaya
;Nagaland
ITriPura
Arunachal Pradesh
,Mizoram
Sub Total (NER)
ISLANDS
IAndman & Nicobar
,Lakshadweep
I

Total (All India)

201

Chapter III : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

,I _= ...
,.

Central Electricity AuthOrity~/ ...


~.\lI
",i
;!. , :::.. /
Pi

Table 3.20
ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISE
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN LT INDUSTRIES
Actual

Forecast,

2003 -04

200405

2005

2006 -07

2007 -08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

Uttar Pradesh
Uttamanchal
'Chandigarh

951
208
211
2119
1324
2293
90
83

948
246
225
2210
1485
2386
93
92

1045
281
249
2388
1660
2630
103
103

1153
322
275
2582
1856
2900
115
116

1271
368
304
2793
2075
3197
128
130

1401
420
336
3020
2319
3525
142
146

1545
480
372
3267
2593
3886
158
164

1703
549
411
3533
2899
4264
176
185

3021
1877
627
454
3821
3241
4724
196
207

ISUb Total

9111

9551

10459

11460

12559

13768

15097

16559

18168

58
5331
298
670
4724
115
118

70
5609
328
690
4818
125
134

78
5738
380
746
5262
255
175

88
6305
416
829
5786
301
197

98
7103
467
921
6362
353
220

110
8003
525
1023
6995
412
244

126
9017
590
1137
7691
478
270

146
10159
663
1263
8457
553
297

169
11445
744
1403
9299
638
325

(WR)

11314

11774

12636

13922

15525

17312

19308

21536

24023

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
I Pondicherry

2084
2347
540
4877
82

2221
2459
545
4933
88

2663
2048
668
5133
97

3028
2889
734
5619
107

3443
3794
794
6110
118

3915
3779
860
6718
130

4451
4370
931
7470
144

5061
5073
1008
8386
158

5755
5957
1092
9489
175

,Sub Total (SR)

9930

10246

11210

12377

13759

15402

17366

19687

22468

135
128
263
688
11

140
147
271
794
13

165
170
298
1011
15

191
195
328
1079
17

220
224
361
1154
19

252
256
397
1234
21

286
293
436
1322
24

322
334
480
1414
28

360
381
528
1509
31

1224

1365

16::.7

1810

1977

2160

2361

2577

2809

124
8
5
36
73
3
2

105
7
5
4
65
5
2

16i
21
8
22
55
6
2

190
25
9
25
60
6
3

228
29
11
29
65
7
3

271
34
13
33
71
8
4

318
40
15
38
9
5

369
46
18
44
83
10
5

426
52
20
51
90
11
6

249

192

274

319

373

435

502

575

657

5
0

4
0

5
0

6
1

6
1

7
1

7
1

7
1

8
2

31834

33133

36242

39893

44200

49086

54643

60944

68135

State

06

In Million kwh
'
2011 - 12

(Base Year)

8 0
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
I:Jammu & Kashmir
I

IPunjab
i
'I'

Rajasthan

(NR)

Goa
Gujarat
.Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
1

1'

Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

I,sub Total
I

iBihar
Jharkhand
,Orissa
:West Bengal
,Sikkim
I

ISUb Total

(ER)

,Assam
:Manipur
IMeghalaya
! Nagaland
Tripura
' Arunachal
Pradesh
I

Mizoram

Sub Total (N.ER)


ISLANDS
I
IAndman & N.cobar
,Lakshadweep

ITotal (All India)

---.--

Ch,iptcr IIJ : Short Tern, Forcc<~st (Category

V'/ise)

202

,/ '~l;if~,:'

,it.r.~:.,/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

~"

Table 3.21
ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
HT INDUSTRIES
In Million kwh

1083
:4664
3512
963
10299
6552
7225
1403
207

1148
5270
3848
1078
11325
7338
8092
1571
228

1217
5955
4305
1208
12453
8219
9063
1760
251

32504

35908

39899

44430

1407
12501
5854
5448
21882
2220
1203

1534
13689
6439
6001
23414
2487
1383

1656
14989
7083
6610
25053
2785
1591

1772
16413
7791
7282
26807
3120
1829

1896
17972
8570
8022
28683
3494
2104

46442

50515

54947

59768

65015

70742

8999
4362
2765
9515
1321

9737
4893
2977
9880
1465

10615
5337
3143
10429
1625

11612
5822
3287
11027
1804

12705
6364
3426
11678
2002

13905
6958
3614
12386
2223

15223
7606
3813
13158
2469

25023

26962

28952

31150

33551

36175

39087

42270

649
5816
2815
7471
0

679
6275
3314
8381
0

747
7252
3707
8635
0

822
8051
4216
9362
2

904
8568
4837
9987
3

994
9089
5550
~0779
5

1094
9612
6361
11521
6

1203
10142
7117
12411
8

79G2
13484
9

16752

18650

20341

22452

24300

26418

28594

30880

33441

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

513
0
451
0
0
0
0

619
1
486
0
0
0
0

650
13
513
0
0
0
1

682
16
546
29
0
0
1

716
19
576
58
0
0
2

752
24
606
72
0
0
2

787
27
637
101
0
0
3

823
33
667
115
0
0
3

862
38
698
130
0
0
4

Sub Total (NER)


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep

964

1105

1176

1274

1'370

1456

1554

1641

1731

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

95977

105087

113771

125449

136712

148876

161999

176522

192614

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal

783
2289
1141
491
6516
3395
3803
566
104

809
2531
1347
546
6409
3718
4174
796
129

858
2860
1438
612
7047
4164
4592
891
142

909
3232
2794
685
7748
4664
5143
998
156

984
3852
3201
768
8519
5223
5760
1118
171

1022
4127
3386
860
9367
5850
6451
1252
188

(NR)

19089

20460

22604

26329

29376

Goa
iGujarat
!Chhattisgarh
IMadhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

809
9963
3944
3701
15239
1376
728

993
10222
4324
4076
17863
1581
791

1142
10426
4838
4490
19113
1770
909

1279
11417
5321
4945
20451
1983
1046

35759

39849

42688

6827
3680
2522
9221
1163

8100
4013
2527
9192
1191

23414

Pradesh

IJammu & Kashmir


Punjab
Rajasthan
i Uttar Pradesh
IUttarnanchal
,Chandigarh

I Sub

Total

Sub Total
Andhra

(WR)

Pradesh

Karnataka
Kerala
,Tamil Nadu
i Pondicherry
I

Sub Total

(SR)

:Sihar
iJharkhand
:Orissa
;West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Total

Total

(ER)

(All India)

-------

____

1323
10663

__

203

Chapter III: Short Tenn Forecast (Category

Wise)

/-;

CentralElectricityAuthority,t?~/

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.22
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATE!UT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION
RAILWAY

TRACTION
In Million kwh

Actual

State

2003-04

2004-052005-062006-07

Forecast

2007-0B

200B-09

2009-10

2010-112011-12

(Base Year)

260
209

234
209

294

o
o

71
266
587

115
279
627

o
o

Sub Total (NR)

1393

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

340
230

367
241

484
253

593
266

672
279

774
293

o
o

o
o

128
308

1406

136
323
1497

144
340
1602

153
357
1722

162
374
1860

171
393
2018

o
o

o
o

o
o

o
o

o
o

o
o

1464

2253

2412

2565

2823

3091

3348

3649

0
420
574
1267
1749
0
0

0
477
588
1339
1849
0
0

0
504
623
1419
1925
0
0

0
534
661
1505
2040
0
0

0
568
704
1602
2173
0
0

0
608
753
1714
2325
0
0

0
654
B09
1843
2500
0
0

0
706
874
1990
2700
0
0

0
766
948
2160
2929
0
0

Sub Total (WR)

4010

4253

4471

4740

5047

5400

5806

6270

6B03

Andhra Pradesh
Kamataka
f<.erala
T3mi! Nadu
F'ondicherry

1132
37
53
505
0

1173
38
47
515
0

1250
38
49
550
0

1330
40
52
580
0

1415
43
55
620
0

1510
45
59
670
0

1620
49
64
710
0

1750
53
69
770
0

1900
57
75
835
0

Sub Total (SR)

1727

1773

1887

2002

2133

2285

2443

2642

2867

276
726
251
832
0

335
780
334
876
0

355
814
338
927
0

376
851
358
978
0

401
892
382
1035
0

429
938
408
1098
0

461
990
439
1175
0

498
1049
474
1289
0

540
1116
515
1423
0

2086

2325

2435

2563

2710

2873

3065

3310

3593

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Sub Total (NEA)


'ISLANDS

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

9216

9814

11046

11717

12455

13381

14404

15569

16913

IDelhl
Haryana
'Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandigarh

Bihar
Jharkhand
Oris:'ia
West Bengal
Sikkim

Sub Total (EfI)


:Assam
;Manipur
,IMeghalaya
:Nagaland
;Trinura
AnJnachal
iMizoram

Pradesh

Total (All India)

('hapter 1II : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

219

121,
293
1326

204

>i.~~;/
!

.L.~._~._.-; __

17th Electric Power Swvey

Central Electricity Authority

r
Table 3.23
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND ST ATEJUT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION
NON-INDUSTRIAL CONSUMERS

(HT BULK SUPPLY)


In Million kwh

State
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnancha!
;Chandigarh
iSub Total (NR)
IGoa
IGujarat
iChhattisgarh

Actual
2003-04
(Base Year)

2004-05

260
338
119
581
370

279
485
191
624
431

307
534
252
674
457

338
587
272
728
485

372
646
289
786
514

409
711
304
849
545

450
782
316
577

495
860
324
990
612

1763

2560

2765

2986

3225

3483

3762

4063

4388

2005-06

2006-07

Forecast
2007-08
2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

917

544
946
326
1069

649

25

27

29

31

34

36

39

42

46

3455

4597

5018

5426

5865

6336

6842

o
o

o
o
o

0
168
0
0
0
0
0

0
187
0
0
0
0
0

0
208
0
0
0
0
0

0
230
0
0
0
0
0

0
256
0
0
0
0
0

7385

7967

284

315

o
o
o
o

o
o
o
o
o

Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
10. & N. Haveli
'Daman & Diu

0
137
0
0
19
0
0

Sub Total (WR)

155

152

168

187

208

230

256

284

315

'Andhra Pradesh
! Karnataka
,
I Kerala
IT amil Nadu

130
166
89
430
6

159
175
95
443
6

165

171
193
109
469
7

178
203
115
482
7

184
212
122
494
7

190
221
128
505

Pondicherry

100
166
82
413
36

196
229
135
518
7

Sub Total (SA)

797

821

879

914

949

984

1018

1052

Bihar
iJharkhand
,

o
o

0
0
362

0
0
382
264
2

0
0
405
275
5

0
0
429
287
8

o
o

0
0
343
243
0

o
o

IOrissa
'West Bengal
Sikkim

0
0
322
327
0

455
299
4

485
312
4

:Sub Total (EA)

649

838

587

616

648

585

724

758

800

IAssam
! Manipur

231
41
123
25
0
0
8

302
32
128
40

308
49
141
46

315
68
155
57
0
0
13

318
78
163
63
0
0
14

324
102
180
73

0
10

311
58
148
52
0
0
12

321
90
171

305
41
134
44
0
0
10

428

511

535

556

b80

607

14
0

14

16
0

18
0

20
0

22
0

I
1

Meghalaya
Nagaland
iTripura
IArunachal Pradesh
I Mizoram
I

Sub Total (NEA)


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
~otal (All India}

5499

152

325
513

o
o

o
6934

7202

184

102
456

253

'J

7717

205

'3270

8865

68

1086

o
o

15

17

636

665

696

24
0

26

29

9500

10170

10893

Chapter III : Short Ternl Forecast (Category WIse)

17th Electric Power Swvey

CentralElectricity
Authoritykt~~/
:'l!

.~'"

Table 3.24
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION-DOM-RURAL

(UTILITIES)

2003-04 -2011-12
IN MkWh
State
Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
i Rajasthan
i Uttar Pradesh
:Uttaranchal
,Chandigarh
,Sub Total (NR)

200304 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12,


172
1042
543
415
2139
935
2926
379
22
8573

188
1137
576
458
2297
1029
3098
354
25
9161

212
1241
613
520
2453
1204
3486
405
27
10161

Goa
Gujarat
i Chhattisgarh
! Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu
Sub Talai (WR)

179
2402
584
1621
5981
12
19
10798

210
2608
665
1839
6078
15
20
11436

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
,Kerala
ITamil Nadu
i Pondicherry
,SUb Tolal (SR)

3416
1536
2394
5151
117
12615

'Bihar
'Jharkhand
iOrissa
:West Bengal
Sikkim
,Sub Tolal (ER)

262
85
1182
1514
26
3070

Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Meghalaya
Manipur
Mizoram
Nagaland
iTripura
,Sub Total (NER)
IISLANDS
i Andman & Nicobar
:Lakshadweep
ITotal (All India)

240
644
590
2629
1443
4148
463
31
11563

269
1527
675
669
2817
1718
4912
530
34
13152

302
1695
708
759
3019
2035
5782
606
38
14944

339
1880
743
860
3235
2399
6758
693
43
16950

379
2086
780
976
3466
2817
7833
792
48
19176

905
54
21618

238
2740
774
2178
6498
17
22
12467

259
3070
900
2580
7125
20
24
13977

281
3439
1047
2976
7812
22
25
15604

330
4174
1320
3719
9280
28
30
18880

359
4676
1535
4289
10175
32
32
21099

392
5238
1786
4948
11157
36
35
23592

426
58681
2078'
5707
12233
42
38
26392

3705
1748
2558
5857
122
139B9

40Bl
1804
2741
6500
128
15254

4604
1872
2957
7115
133
16681

5242
1954
3191

6797
2130
3715
9331
161
22134

7740
2224
4009
10213
177
24362

8813
2322
4325
11179

140
18315

5969
2040
3443
B525
149
20126

26833 '

278
126
1198
1483
30
3115

320
157
1113
1672
33
3296

442
206
1351
1889
37
3925

1020
269
1640
2135
42
5106

1906
351
1990
2413
47
6707

2646
459
2415
2726
53
8299

3504
599
2931
3081
59
10174

4440
7831
3557,
3499'
67
12346

13n

n88

423
2315
819
1106
3714
3296,
89871

193]

17

13

22

26

31

37

43

50

55

279
87
73
16
62
86
620

354
94
79
17
66
82
704

402
118
85
22
71
101
823

497
154
103
26
77
120
1002

614
176
123
30
76
142
1191

758
201
147
34
86
168
1431

936
231
176
36
98
199
1718

1156
264
209
38
111
235
2064

1428
302
249
41
126
292
2493

20.5
6.5

20.5
6.8

23.7
7.1

26.7
7.6

30.5
B.l

34.6
8.7

39.2
9.3

44.1
10.0

49.5
10.8

35703

Chapter III : Short Tenn Forecast (Catcgory Wise)

38433

42031

206

47183

53406

62131

70248

79423

89742

i:

,1

lP:~II'

!a;~ /C

tiEl
en ra

.. A h '/y
ectnclty ut on

17th Electric Power Survey

1,,-

f
Table 3.25
ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE


ENERGY CONSUMPTION-COM-RURAL

(UTILITIES)

2003-04 -2011-12
IN MkWh
II

,-

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Prade~h
Uttaranchal
i Chandigarh
Sub Tolal (NR)

0
226
108
85
248
195
126
45
9
1042

0
258
119
93
271
215
106
57
9
1129

0
287
131
103
298
240
183
63
10
1314

0
322
146
113
329
267
276
69
11
1533

0
362
162
125
362
297
395
76
11
1790

0
406
180
137
399
331
533
84
12
2082

0
455
200
152
439
368
697
93
13
2417

0
509
222
168
484
410
892
103
14
2801

0
571
247
185
533
456
1122
113
15
3242

Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
! Maharashtra
:D. & N. Hav:~ii
I Daman & D,u
Sub Tolal (WR)

19
275
32
142
987
3
5
1464

25
305
36
166
1071
3
6
1612

29
317
42
186
1143
9
6
1733

34
366
46
213
1236
10
7
1912

40
422
53
244
1337
11
8
2114

47
490
60
280
1445
12
9
2344

56
570
69
324
1562
13
10
2605

67
663
79
374
1689
15
11
2898

79
771
91
432
1827
16 .
12 .
3228

Andhra Pradesh

Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Tolal (SR)

628
241
647
1411
37
2964

668
270
671
1523
38
3170

760
292
750
1613
42
3458

883
322
839
1719
46
3810

1025
356
934
1868
51
4234

1189
392
1039
2070
57
4748

1381
433
1157
2337
63
5370

1603
477
1287
2688
70
6125

1861
527
1433
3142
77
7040

jSihar
;Jharkhand
iOrissa
West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Talai (ER)

68
37
233
482
2
823

72
40
241
426
2
781

78
43
241
521
3
886

84
48
259
553
3
947

92
53
278
586
3
1012

100
59
300
621
3
1083

109
64
324
658
4
1159

119
70
348
698
4
1238

130
76
372
740
1322

6
28
10
2
1
8
20
76

6
33
13
2
1
10
18
84

6
29
19
3
1
13
20
91

7
31
26
3
2
10
22
101

7
33
34
3
2
12
24
115

8
36
43
4
2
13
26
131

8
38
52
4
2
14
29
148

9
40
63
5
2
15
33
166

9
43
75
5
3
16
36
186

8.0
2.1

7.4
2.2

8.4
2.4

9.5
2.6

10.3

11.1
3.2

11.9
3.6

12.8
4.1

13.7

! Karnataka

I Kerala
I

I Arunachal

Pradesh

IAssam
Meghalaya
Manipur
Mizoram
I N~gajand
:Tripura
(NEtt)
i Sub Total
,ISLANDS
Andman & tJicobar
Lakshadweep
I

I~olal (~ii:nd~a)

6379

6786

7493

8314
------------

207

2.8
9278

10402

11714

13246

4.6

15035

--.-

Chapter III : Short Term Forecast (Category

Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.26
ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONIRRIGATION-RURAL
2003-04 - 2011-12

(UTILITIES)
IN MkWh

State

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-06 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
,Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh

Sub Total (NR)


Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

Sub Total (WR)


Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
'Kerala
:Tamil Nadu
,Pondicherry

iSub Total (SR)


'Bihar

Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
!Sikkim

iSub Total

(ER)

Arunachal
Assam

Pradesh

Meghalaya
,Manipur
Mizoram
Nagaland
Tripura

Sub Total (NER)


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep

,Total (All India)

54
5513
20
116
6243
4274
4676
286
1
21183

43
5678
25
128
7411
5322
4585
439
1
23633

43
6321
32
142
8354
6029
4958
474
1
26354

43
6971
41
159
9372
6613
5404
512
2
29116

43
7661
50
182
10468
7232
5995
553
2
32185

43
8392
59
207
11647
7887
6640
597
2
35475

43
9164
70
236
12909
8580
7345
645
2
38994

43
9980
81
269
14259
9311
8113
697
2
42754

43
10839
93
306
15699
10081
8950
753
2
46765

18
14361
637
5583
10572
5
2
31177

17
12090
1058
5859
10733
5
3
29764

18
12177
1184
6243
11410
6
3
31041

20
12902
1377
6652
12049
7
3
33011

22
13652
1519
7236
12721
8
4
35161

24
14339
1659
7872
13427
9
4
37335

27
15078
1790
8563
14168
10
4
39641

30
15858
1911
9316
14947
12
5
42078

34
16683
2024
10134
15764
13
5
44657

13467
9006.4
212
9406
118
32209

14433
9371
201
9825
120
33950

15722
10032
233
10248
123
36358

17101
10753
251
10747
126
38979

18603
11506
273
11326
129
41837

20236
12457
296
11960
133
45082

22013
13548
322
12629
137
48650

23946
14768
352
13336
142
52544

26049
16099
384
14082
146
56761

962
52
172
741
0
1927

992
57
174
784

1068
66
241
831

1202
74
274
883

1349
83
310
939

1474
92
351
1001

1565
99
396
1068

1657
107
447
1139

1749
115
504
1214

2006

2207

2433

2681

2918

3128

3348

3582

60
1
4
4

66
1
5
5

72
1

a
a

50
1
2
2

0
54
1
3
3

45
1
2
2

79
1
6
6

0
71
88

80
129

88
143

97
158

106
175

117
193

129
213

142
234

a
a

112022 120983 130606 140938

151999

0
16
1

45
0
1

a
a
79
125

a
a

86621

89441

96088 103681

--

Chapter III: Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise)

208

-----

'~I!",'

&'!f;[;:':'1/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

,I"

Table 3.27
ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE
ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION-OTHERS-RURAL
2003-04 - 2011-12

(UTILITIES)
IN MkWh

State

2003-04

Delhi
Haryana

Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
I Rajasthan
1Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
i Chandigarh
I

Sub Total (NR)

"Goa

Gujarat
1Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
I Maharashtra
I

110. & N. Haveli


I Daman & Diu
Sub Total (WR)

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala

Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry
Sub Total (SR)

Bihar
Jharkhand
I Orissa
. West Bengal

Sikkim
I

Sub Total

(ER)

, Arunach"j Pradesh
I

Assam

:Meghalaya
Manipur
Mizoram

Nagaland

Tripura
Sub Total
ISLANDS

(NER)

Andman & Nicobar

I Lakshadweep

Total (All India)

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 201'1-12

45
137
1219
536
1834
1363
1615
481
10
7241

47
140
1450
595
1848
1186
1563
634
12
7476

50
159
1607
659
2032
1304
2279
706
14
8810

54
182
2604
727
2233
1561
2578
786
15
10741

57
209
2950
799
2454
1867
2921
876
17
12151

61
240
3148
876
2696
2223
3317
976
19
13556

65
275
3307
960
2961
2638
3772
1088
21
15087

70
316
3610
1051
3252
3117
4295
1213
23
16946

451
5783
2521
926
7854
599
295
18429

558
7227
2588
1115
9292
884
322
21786

641
7502
2883
1323
10021
818
378
23566

722
8488
3128
1556
10920
922
434
26151

802
9661
3443
1758
11922
1038
497
29120

860
10747
3699
1708
12311
1166
567
31058

948
12291
4090
1940
13468
1312
649
34697

1042
14033
4534
2206
14730
1476
742
38763

7889
3159
1895
10221
1140
24304

9059
3474
1847
10296
1159
25834

10022
3846
2095
10707
1285
27956

10894
4283
2278
11395
1427
30276

11891
4703
2432
12289
1585
32900

13014
5212
2589
13393
1760
35968

14256
5831
2758
14569
1956
39370

15636
6529
2956
15954
2173
43248

159991
5037
2514
16108,
16591,
848
43311,
1
17165
7316,
3170j
17576',
2416
47642

440
680
1362
1458
16
3955

459
711
1548
1750
21
4490

507
760
1726
1725
25
4742

559
811
1943
1861
30
5204

616
867
2205
2016
37
5741

679
927
2502
2230
45
6383

748
991
2836
2434
54
7063

823
1060
3153
2703
56
7796

9051
1135'
3506
3040
62
8648

1.47
320
474
25
6
33
64
923

2.34
359
507
22
5
19
57
970

3.12
400
553
43
7
33
53
1093

3.60
427
588
52
8
48
58
1184

4.12
454
620
62
8
64
62
1274

4.72
483
652
75
9
75
67
1365

5.36
511
684
87
10
92
73
1463

6.06
539
717
101
11
104
78
1557

84
6.
569
750
117
13
117
84
1656

3.2
0.7

3.0
0.8

3.8
0.9

4.2
1.0

4.5
1.1

4.9
1.3

5.3
1.5

5.8
1.8

6.2
2.1

60560

66171

108317

120364!

54856

73561

209

81192

88337

97688

74
3621
3998
1149
3570
3672
4897
13521
251
19099
1147

Chapter Ill: Shm1 Term Forecast (Category Wise)

CHAPTER-IV
STATEWISE FORECAST
(SHORT TERM)

~~W.'I
' Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 4.1
Deihl
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Actual

2003-04

2004-05

Consumption/requirement

in MkWh

Forecast

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Base Year

Energy Requirement - MkWh


Load Factor ( % )
Ipeak Load (MW)

5723
2466
188
300
91
1832
783
260
260
11903
40.96
8257
20160
69.97
3289

6284
2714
223
312
72
1867
809
234
279
12773
39.03
8179
20952
68.53
3490

7081
3159
234
328
72
1999
858
294
307
14332
37.03
8430
22762
68.43
3797

7985
3583
246
344
72
2142
909
340
338
15959
35.03
8606
24565
68.33
4104

26483
68.23
4431

~ral Consumption
Urban Consumption

271
11632

278
12495

306
14027

336
15622

~37()

407

17:3()S

1!J3f:lO

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
,HT Industries
!Railway Traction
INon Industrial
:Total Consumption MkWh

ITT && 0D Losses


(% )
Losses - MkWh

8982
4065
258
361
72
2294

984
367
372
17734
33.03
8749

68.13

11293
5230
285
398
72
2633
1083
593
450
22036
29.03
9016
31052
68.03

12627
5933
299
418
72
2820
1148
672
495
24484
27.03
9072
33556
68.00

4807

5210

5633

10081
4611
271
379
72
2458
1022

484
409
19786
31.03
8904
28690

44?

491

14096j'

6730 ,
3141
439'
72

3021
1217
774
544'

272071
25.03
9086
36293
1

68.001
6092

041

2fj(;D7

21589

23993
__________

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 1:->

51.25%
23.73%
0.33%
16.86%
7.83%
100.00%

51.57%
24.23%
0.29%
16.21%
7.69%
100.00%

51.81%
24.74%
0.26%
15.58%
7.61%
100.00%

Pattern of utilisation
------------------

--------

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

",-l.U"atlon

2003 - 04

2004 05

48.08%
20.72%
0.76%
21.97%
8.47%
100.00%

49.04%
21.24%
0.56%
20.95%
6.21%
100.00%

for

2005 -06 2006 - 07


49.41%
22.04%
0.50%
19.94%
8.12%
100.00%

50.03%
22.45%
0.45%
19.12%
7.95%
100.00%

2007

OB

50.65%
22.92%
0.40%
18.37%
7.66%
100.00%

200e - 09
50.95%
23.30%
0.36%
17.59%
7.80%
100.00%

2003-04

Others

Others

7.61\

8.47\

Industry

21.97\
Irrigation

Domestic

0.26\

48.08%

Irrigation
0.76\

213

Dof"estic.:
51.81\

Central Electricity Authority .::>~1'!t_~


__

17th Electric Power Survey

'f'

Table 4.2
Haryana
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE

FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

2606
656
37
317

:Domestic
i Commercial & Miscellaneous
,Public Lighting
IPublic Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
I Non Industrial
:Total Consumption - MkWh
iT & D Losses ( % )
'T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
;Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

5514

951
2289
209
338

2842

755
38
316
5682
948
2531

3154
849
42
349
6331

3517
962
45
390
6990

3922
1091
48
436
7692

7458
22842

31.45
7849

241
646
19000
30.25
8240

4373
1238
52
487
8438
1401
4127
253
711
21080
29.05
8631

1045
2860

1153

1271
3652

24955

27240

29711

32385

35280

64.72
4029

64.62
4408

64.52

64.42

64.32

4819

5265

5747

64.22
6271

8008
7376

8853
8254

9760
9240

10732
10347

11775
11591

12891
12987

15384
32.65

19779

6755
20562

68.88

64.82

3278

3621

6918

7213

5998

6594

34.70
6863

3232
230
587

219
534

209
485
13807
32.85

12916

Consumption/requirement

17106

in MkWh

4876

5438

6064

1403

1591
59
608
10068

18051

55
544
9230
1545
4664

1703
5270

266
782

279
860

23365
27.85

25878

64'
680
10955

1877
5955
293
946
28639
25.451

26.65
9403

9020

9778

384171
64.12
6839

I
,

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

14085]
14554:

-----

Pattern of utilisation
---------

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

ut.i lisatioIl

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

20.17%
5.08%
42.69%
25.08%
6.97%
100.00%

20.58%
5.47%
41.16%
25.20%
7.59%
100.00%

20.50%
5.52%
41.16%
25.39%
7.43%
100.00%

20.56%
5.63%
40.86%
25.63%
7.32%
100.00%

20.64%
5.74%
40.48%
25.91%
7.22%
100.00%

20.75%
5.87%
40.03%
26.23%
7.13%
100.00%

20.87%
6.01%
39.50%
26.57%
7.05%
100.00%

21.01%
6.15%
38.91%
26.95%
6.98%
100.00%

tor

2003-04

utilisation

for

2011 - 12

2011-12

Others

Others

6.92%

6.97%

Industry

2~.08%

Industry
27.35%

commercial

commercial

5.08%

6.30%

/
/
//

Irrigation

Irrigation

42.69%

(IJ.tptc!' IV : Stat<:\vise Forecast (Short Tefm)

38.25%

214

21.17%
6.30%
38.25%[
27.35% i

6.92%1
1~~.~~o

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.3
Himachal Pradesh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
ConsumptIon Categories

Domestic
iCommerciat & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
:Public Water Works
:Irrigation
!LT Industries
HT Industries
i Railway Traction
jNon Industrial
iTotal Consumption - MkWh
& D Losses ( % )
T & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
.Load Factor ( % )
.Peak Load (MW)

Actual
2003 - 04 2004 - 05
(Base Year)
765
810
244
224
10
11
271
251

iT
!

i Rural

Consumption

I Urban~~_~~mption

20

25

208
1141

246
1347

2005 - 06

Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2006 - 07 2007 - 08

2008 - 09

944
332
14
393
50
368
3201

989
368
15
440
59
420
3386

860
270
12
313
32
281
1438

901
299
13
350
41
322
2794

2009 -10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

1037
408
16
492
70
480
3512

1087
453
18
544
81
549
3848

1139
502
19
606
93
627
4305

316
6331
22.85
1875

324
6903
21.35
1874
8777
67.34
1488

326

119
2737
31.85
1279
4016
68.42
670

191
3145
30.35
1370

272
4992
27.35
1879
6871
67.34
1165

289
5590
25.85
1949

304
5983
24.35
1926

7539

7909

8206

67.34
765

252
3459
28.85
1402
4861
67.34
824

67.34
1278

67.34
1::111

67.34
1391

1890
847

2170
975

2383
1075

3434
1558

3837

,-OS2'837

4516

1753

in MkWh

7617

19.85
1886
9504

67.34
1611

'~32G<

4693

5157

2011

2210

24EO

1()

2010 - 11

Pattern of utilisation
-----

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 " 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2CCS - OS

27.96%
8.17%
0.71%
49.29%
13.87%
100.00%

25.75%
7.77%
0.80%
50.67%
15.01%
100.00%

24.88%
7.80%
0.94%
49.71%
16.67%
100.00%

18.06%
5.99%
0.81%
62.42%
12.72%
100.00%

16.89%
5.94%
0.89%
63.84%
12.45%
100.00%

16.54%
6.15%
0.99%
63.63%
12.69%
100.00%

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

for

16.38%
6.45%
1.10%
63.05%
13.03%
100.00%

15.74%
6.56%
1.17%
63.70%
12.83%
100_00%

20i 1

2003-0'\

Others
12.49%

Domestic

Commercial
6.59%

Irrigation
1.22%

Commercial
8.17%

Irrigation
'ndU~

49.29%

---

0.71%
Industry

64.75%

215

{ . !~.q' 1 .-;

:\

I ~

14.95%
6.59%
1.22%
64.75%
12.49%
100.00%

-----

----

ut.ilisation

20C0

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.4

Consumption Categones
2003-04
(Base Year)
iCommercial & Miscellaneous
IPublic Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
i LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
ITotal Consumption - MkWh
!T & 0 Losses (%)
,T & 0 Losses - MkWh
,Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
'Peak Load (MW)

Jammu & Kashmir


SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)

FORECAST

Actual
2004-05

Forecast
2007-08

422
44
286
116
211
491
0
581
3534
47.87
3246
6780
61.04
1268

2005-06

2006-07

513
54
339
142
249
612
0
674
4301

465
49
314
128
225
546
0
624
3877
47.51

42.87

3510

3228
7528
70.85
1213

7387

72.32
1166

Consumption/requirement

565
59
366
159
275
685
0
728
4772
40.37
3231
8004
69.37
1317

3231
8532
67.90
1434

1589
3184

3527

2008-09

622
65
396
182
304
768
0
786
5301
37.87

2009-10

685
71
427
207
336
860
0
849
5888
35.37
3223
9111
66.42
1566

755
77
461
236
372
963
0
917
6542
32.87
3204

1980
3909

2010-11

831
84
498
269
411
1078

0
990
7270
30.37

9746

3171
10441

64.95
1713

63.47
1878

2209
4334

2463
4807

in MkWh
2011-12

916
92
538
306
454
1208
0
1069
8080
27.87
3122
11202
62.00
2063!

IRural Consumption
IUrban Consumption

1151
2383

1273

1423

2604

2878

- --

1774

2746
5334]

-------

Pattern of utilisation
-----

----

2003 -04 2004 - 05


Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

39.12%
11.95%
3.28%
19.86%
25.80%
100.00%

39.35%
12.00%
3.29%
19.90%
25.46%
100.00%

-------

----------

2005 .06 2006 .07 2007 .08 2008 .09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12
39.96%
11.92%
3.30%
20.02%
24.81%
100.00%

40.56%
11.83%
3.33%
20.13%
24.16%
100.00%

41.12%
11.73%
3.42%
20.22%
23.51%
100.00%

41.67/0
11.64%
3.52%
20.31%
22.87%
100.00%

----

utilisation

42.21%
11.54%
3.61%
20.40%
22.24%
100.00%

42.75%
11.44%
3.70%
20.48%
21.63%
100.00%

----

for 2003-1)4

utilisation

for 2011-1?

Domestic
39.12%
43.28%

Industry
20.57%

Irrigation
3.26%

Commercial

Irrigation
3.79%

11.95%

Chapter IV: Statcwisc Forecast (Short Term)

216

Commercial
11.34%

43.28%
11.34%
3.79%
20.57%
21.03%
100.00%

,~~~,/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority


~i

Table 4.5
Punjab
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Actual
2003-04
2004~05
(Base Year)

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
L T Industries
HT Industries
I Railway Traction
I Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
.T & D Losses ( %)
iT & D Losses - MkWh
I Energy Requirement - MkWh
! Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
'1'

2005-06

Forecast
2007-08

2006-07

5139
1655
100
252
6243
2119
6516
71
370
22465
26.39
8055
30520
61.97
5622

5599
1810
108
285
7411
2210
6409
115
431
24378
25.79
8473
32851
62.07
6042

6087
1990
116
311
8354
2388
7047
121
457
26869
25.19
9049
35918
62.17
6595

10434
12031

11828
12550

13137
13782

2008

7268
2413
134
368

6650
2191

125
338
9372
2582

Consumption/requirement

7748

10468
2793
8519

128
485
29619
24.59
9660

136
514
32613
23.99
10295

39279

42908

09

2009-10

7945

2658
144
400

2010-11

8687
2928
155
435
12909
3267

14259

10299
153
577
39409
22.79
11634
51044
62.57
9312

11325

62.27

62.37

7201

7853

14563
15056

16102
16511

17761
18109

2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 - 09

2011-12

9500
3225
166
472

11647
3020

9367
144
545
35869
23.39
10953
46823
62.47
8556

in MkWh

10392
3552
179
513
15699
3821
12453

3533

171
649

162
612
43254
22.19
12338

47427

62.67
10126

21.59
13061
60489
62.77
11000

19545
19865

21461
21793

23516'
239121

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

21.96%
7.46%
32.97%
34.35%
3.27%
100.00%

21.91%'
7.49%:
33.10%,
34.31%
3.19%
100.00%

55591

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

---.------

Pattern of utilisation
--

Domestic
Commercial
Ilrrigation
ilndustry
Others
;Total

utiligation

-------------

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

22.88%
7.37%
27.79%
38.44%
3.53%
100.00%

22.97%
7.42%
30.40%
35.36%
3.85%
100.00%

22.65%
7.41%
31.09%
35.11%
3.74%
100.00%

...

22.45%,
7.40%
31.64%
34.88%
3.63%
100.00%

22.29%
7.40%
32.10%
34.68%
3.53%
100.00%

for 2003-04

22.15%
7.41%
32.47%
34.53%
3.44%
100.00%

22.04%
7.43%
32.76%
34.42%
3.35%
iOO.OO%

utiliuatiou

for 2011 12

Others
3.19%

Others
3.:;3%

Domestic

Industry
34.31%

Industry
38.44%

Commercial
7.49%

Commercial
7.37%

Irrigation
Irrigation
33.10%

:7.79%

217

Chapter

IV. State wise Forecast

(Short Term)

Central Electricity Authority-a;f<l''QI'

17th Electric Power Swvey

Table 4.6
Rajasthan
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)

:Domestic
I Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Tolal Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
i Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
'Peak Load (MW)

3133
1363
103
863

3376
1489
114
943

4274
1324

5322
1485

3395
266
0
14720
44.60

3718
279
0

4164

16726
44.54

18799
41.54

13433
74.93
4595

13358
32157
73.63
4985

7753
8973

10022

11850
26570
73.14

1010
6029

1660
293
0

30159

4147
6768

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

3873
1642
128

7952

8777

4558
1810
144
1082

5336

6613
1856
4664

7232
2075
5223

308
0
21033
38.54
13189
34222
72.33

323
0
23515

Consumption/requirement

6220
2200
207
1241

1995

172
1159

7224
2426
248
1330
8580

7887

2319
5850
340
0

35.54

2593

8363
298

9657
2948,
357

1424
9311
2899

1526'
100811
3241

8219
393
0
36422

48916

2674

26264
33.04

29308
30.54

12960

12887

7338
374
0
32682
28.04
12735

39224

42195

45417

69.73

68.43
7039

67.13

13984
15324

15655

5401

12965
36481
71.03
5863

9884
11149

11114
12401

12476

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

22.69%
8.49%
30.75%
31.03%
7.04%
100.00%

23.68%
8.38%
30.03%
31.11%
6.81%
100.00%

6552
357
0

6421

13788

in MkWh

25.54

12493
65.83
8482

7723

17505
18918

17027

Pattern of utilisation
------

,Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

utilisation

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

21.28%
9.26%
29.04%
32.06%
8.37%
100.00%

20.18%
8.90%
31.82%
31.10%
7.99%
100.00%

20.60%
8.73%
32.07%
30.98%
7.61%
100.00%

21.67%
8.61%
31.44%
31.00%
7.29%
100.00%

for 2003-04

2010 - 11

201-1-~12-

25.59%
8.18%
28.49%
31.32;;'
6.41%
100.00%

26.51%
8.09%
27.68%
31.46%
6.25%
100.00'%

------

2005 .06 2006 . 07

utilisat'.on

2009-1C
24.65%
8.28%
29.27%
31.20%
6.60%
100.00%

for

JOlJ.-L:

I
!

Others
6.25%

Others
8.37%

IndU"ry(

31.46%

Industry

Commercial
9.26%

32.06%

Commerclal
8.0n

Irrigation
29.04%

Chapter IV : Statewisc

Forecast (ShOJi Term)

Irrigation
27.68%

218

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.7
Uttar Pradesh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
I,Public Water Works
'Irrigation
!LT Industries
'HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
,T & D Losses (%)
IT & D Losses * MkWh
:Energy Requirement - MkWh
:'Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

2003-04
(Base Year)
9754
2040
344
567
4952
2293
3803
587
1763
26103
36.98
15321
41424
78.43
6029

Actual
2004-05
10327
2094
322
574
4853
2386
4174
627
2560
27918
34.43
14662
42581
75.38
6448

2005-06

Forecast
2007-08

2006-07

11468
2264
352
621
5248
2630
4592
1326
2765
31267
33.18
15529
46795
73.88
7231

Consumption/requirement
2008-09

14633
2805
422
727
6346
3197
5760
1497
3225
38611
30.68
17092
55703
70.88
8971

12959
2496
385
672
5720
2900
5143
1406
2986
34668
31.93
16265
50933
72.38
8033

2009-10

16503
3122
461
786
7029
3525
6451
1602
3483
42962
29.43
17920
60883
69.38
10017

2010-11

18578
3475
505
850
7775
3886
7225
1722
3762
47777
28.18
18750
66527
67.88
11188

20860
3867
552
919
8588
4284
8092
1860
4063
53086
26.93
19569
72655
66.38
12495

in MkWh
2011-12
23339
4304
604
994
9474i
4724
9063
2018
4388
58908
25.68
20359 i
79268 !
64.88
13947
1

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

9634
18285

9494
16610

10758
20509

11893
22774

13208
25404

14653
28309

16247
31530

18000
35086

19915'
38993

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

38.41%
38.88%
7.27%
7.27%
16.36'''10
16.27%
23.22%
23.26%
14.31%
14.74%
100.00%
100.00%

39.29%
7.28%
16.18%
23.31%
13.93%
100.00%

39.62%
7.31%'
16.08%
23.40%
13.59%
100.00%'

Pattern of utilisation

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

utilisation

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

37.37%
7.82%
18.97%
23.35%
12.49%
100.00%

36.99%
7.50%
17.38%
23.50%
14.63%
100.00%

36.68%
7.24%
16.78%
23.10%
16.20%
100.00%

37.38%
7.20%
16.50%
23.20%
15.72%
100.00%

37.90%
7.26%
16.43%
23.20%
15.20%
100.00%

for 2003 04

utilisation

for

2011-U

Others
12.49%

Domestic
37.37%

]9.62%

Industry

Industry

23.35%

23.40%

Irrigation
18.97%

Commercial
7.82%

Irrigation
16.08%

219

7.]1%

Chapter IV Statcwlsc

Forecast (Short Tern.]

, I
Central ElectricityAuthoritY,~~~,,;'

17th Electric Power Swvey

'--un'f

Table 4.8
Uttarnanchal
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(8ase Year)
1084
1010
446
574
27
46
131
156
318
488
90
93
566
796

DomestIc

Commercial & Miscellaneous


Public Lighting

Public Water Works


Irrigation
L T Industries

HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial

:Total Consumption

o
o

2662
36,56
1535
4197
65,Q1
737

- MkWh

'T & D Losses(%)


!T & 0 Losses MkWh
I Energy Requirement
_ MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

1191
1471

Rural Consumption

Urban Consumption

2005-06
1137
628
49
166
527
103
891

1279
693
51
178
569
115
998

o
o

o
3163
34.81

1689
4852
64,27
862
1484

1679

Forecast
2007-08

2006-07

Consumption/requirement
2008-09

1438
765
54
191
615
128
1118

1617
844
57
204
664
142
1252

o
o

2009-10

201Q-ll

1818
932

60
218
717
158
1403

in MkWh
2011-12

2043
1028
63
233
774
176
1571

2297,
1135'

o
o

o
o

67
250
836
196
1760

3501
33,06
1729
5231
64,07
932

3883
31,31
1770
5654
63,87
1011

4308
29,56
1808
6116
63,67
1097

4780
27,81
1842
6622
63-47
1191

5306
26,06
1870
7176
63,27
1295

5890
24,31
1892
7781
63,07
1408

6539,
22,56
1905
8445
62,87
1533

1648
1854

1831
2053

2036
2273

2264
2516

2519
2786

2805
3085

3124
3415

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

35.12%
17.35%
12.79%
29.90%
4.84%
100.00%

_________

.n

Pattern of utilisation
-------------

2003 - 04

Domestic
,Commercial
I Irrigation
ilndustry

40.72%
16.75%
11.96%
24.64%
5.93%
100.00%

i Others

ITotal

- --------

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

31.94%
18.15%
15.43%
28.10%
6.39%
100.00%

32.47%
17.93%
15.05%
28.40%
6.15%
100.00%

07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

32.93%
17.84%
14.66%
28.66%
5.91%
100.00%

33.38%
17.75%
14.27%
28.92%
5.68%
100.00%

33.83%
17.66%
13.89%
29.17%
5.46%
100.00%

2006

- --------------

fo!'

34.26%
17.56%
13.51%
29.42%
5.25%
100.00%

-------

34.7m'o
17.46%
13.15%
29.66%
5.04%
100.00%
----------

------

utilisation

2009-10

2003-04

--------

utili8~tion for 2011-12

Others
4.84%

Others
5.93%
/
Industry

rndUe,ry(

Domestic

24.64%

29.90%

40.72%

Irrigation
12.79%

Cormnercial
16.75%

Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Term)

220

Commercial
17 .35%

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.9
Chandigarh
SUMMARY

OF CATEGORYWISE

FORECAST

(UTILITIES)
Consumption/requirement
Consumphon

Categones

Actual

2003 - 04

in MkWh

Forecast

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

307
294
13

357
311
15

390
330
16

436
352
16

488
375

21

23

26

29

32

547
400
18
36

2
83
104

2
92
129

2
103
142

2
116
156

3
130
171

146
188

612
427
19
40
3
164
207

29
1038
25.05
347
1384
59.81
264

31
1139
24.35
367
1505
60.31
285

34

849
21.94
238
1087
58.81
211

27
955
25.75
331
1286
59.31
248

42
807

48
907

52
985

58
1081

2010 -11

2011 - 12

(Base Year)

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & D Losses MkWh

Energy

Requirement

o
25

- MkWh

Load Factor ( % )
:Peak Load (MW)

'l

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption
------------

17

685
455
19
44
3
185
228

7661
4851

20
49'

4
207
251

39

42

1251
23.65
387
1638
60.81
307

36
1374
22.95
409
1783
61.31
332

1510

1661
21.55
456
2117

46
1827

61.81
359

64
1186

71
1303

1432

22.25

432
1942

78

2085,

481

2308

388

62.81
420

87
1574

96
1731

62.31

---------

Pattern of utilisation

i-----j

-----------

Domestic

:Commercial

II'

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

36.24%
34.62%
0.21%
22.07%
6.87%
100.00%

37.36%
32.55%
0.20%
23.10%
6.78%
100.00%

37.57%
31.83%
0.20%
23.60%
6.80%
100.00%

38.31%
30.91%
0.20%
23.86%
6.71%
100.00%

39.05%
30.01%
0.20%
24.11%
6.63%
100.00%

39.78%
29.12%
0.20%
24.36%
6.54%
100.00%

40.50%
28.24%
0.20%
24.61%
6.45%
100.00%

41.22%
27.38%
0.20%
24.85%
6.36%
100.00%

:~~~~~~n

Others
Total
_n

- -------

------------

utilisation

201112

41.93"'/0
26.53%
0.19%
25.08%
6.27%~
100.00%

---------------------

for 2003-04

utilisation

for 2011-12

Others
6.27%

Others
6.87%

DomeCltic
41.93%

Irrigation
0.21%

Irrigation
0.19%

Commercial
34.62%

Commercial
26.53%

_
221

Chapkr IV: Statewjs~ Forecast (Shott

TCll11)

17th Electric Power Swvey

Central Electricity Authority.t>.~~j!;,


""-"-i.t'

Table 4.10

Goo
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE

FORECAST

(UTILITIES)
-

----

-----

--

Consumption Categories

Actual
2004-05

2003-04

(Base Yea!L_~
Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
jNon Industrial
iTotal Consumption - MkWh
iT & 0 Losses ( %)
:T & 0 Losses - MkWh
;'Energy Requirement - MkWh
,Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

373

2005-06

2006-07

109
18
58
809

495
146
35
143
18
78
1142

o
o

1484
24.99
495
1979
67.04
337

1800
22.50
523
2323
68.81
385

2058

668
816

810
990

21

2008-09

in MkWh
-

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

438
126
31
125
17
70
993

97

Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2007-08

--

540
172
163

586
202
45
186

20

22

88
1279

98
1407

o
o

211
24
110
1534

o
o

o
o

21.90
577
2635
72.53

2301
21.30
623
2924
72.53

2804
20.10
705
3509
72.53

415

460

2546
20.70
665
3211
72.53
505

552

691
281
60
250
27
126
1656
0
0
3090
19.50
749
3839
72.53
604

926
1132

1036
1266

1146
1401

1262
1542

1391
1700

40

634
237

52

753
333
63
297
30
146
1772
0
0
3400
18.90
792
4193
72.53
660

37441
18.301
839
4583'
72.53
721

1530
1870

1685
2059

818
396
78,1
354'
34
169,
1

189~1

,Rural Consumption
l'Urban Consumption

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04

:Domestic
,Commercial
!Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

25.13%
24.33%
6.53%
7.02%
1.23~t~ 0.93%
56.36%
59.05%
8.76"/0
8.68%
iOO.OO'/"
100.00%

24.06%
7.09%
0.89%
59.30%
8.65%
100.00%

23.45%
7.46%
0.88%
59.40%
8.81%
100.00%

23.02%
7.93%
0.87%
59.12%
9.06%
100.00%

22.63%
8.47%
0.87%
58.62%
9.41%
100.00%

2009-10

2010 - 11

22.35%
9.08%
0.88%
57.67%
10.02%
100.00%

2011 - 12

22.16%
9.80%
0.89%
56.41%
10.75%
100.00/0

21.86%1
10.56%1
0.90%1
55.16%'
11.52%
100.00"/0'
i

ucilisation

[or )003-01

utilisation

for 2011-12

Others

Others
8.76%

11.52%

Domestic

(
i

Conunercial

Contrnercial

\,

6.53%
Irrigation

10.56%
Irrigation

1.23%

0.90%

Industry
58.36%

Industry

55.16%

('hilplcr IV . S\nte\vise Forecast (Short Term)

222

-....,

-asfclm.~-->F" Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.11
Gujarat
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
---

Consumption Categories

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
iHT Industries
:Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

iRural Consumption
IUrban Consumption

2003-04
(Base Year)
5004
1834
176
746
14361
5331
9963
420
137
37972
24.50
12320
50292
79.69
7204

Actual
2004-05

22821
15151

FORECAST
Consumption/requirement
--

2005-06

2006-07

--

Forecast
2007-08

2008-09

in MkWh

--

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

5434
2034
193
778
12090
5609
10222
477
152
36988
30.43
16179
53167
79.42
7642

5709
2116
203
790
12177
5738
10426
504
168
37833
29.43
15777
53610
78.66
7780

6396
2439
221
874
12902
6305
11417
534
187
41275
28.43
16396
57671
76.86
8566

7165
2812
241
964
13652
7103
12501
568
208
45213
27.43
17090
62303
75.06
9475

8027
3269
263
1072
14339
8003
13689
608
230
49501
26.43
17783
67284
73.26
10484

8992
3802
287
1193
15078
9017
14989
654
256
54267
25.43
18506
72773
71.46
11625

10073
4421
313
1328
15858
10159
16413
706
284
59555
24.43
19253
78807
69.66
12915

11285'
5140
341
1478,
16683
11445'
17972
766
315
65425
2343
20020
85445 ;
67.86'
143"14

22230
14758

22737
15095

24806
16469

27173
18040

29750
19751

32615
21653

35792
23762

39321
26105

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04
"Domestic
! Commercial
;Irrigation
ilndustry
Others
Total

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

14.69%
5.50%
32.69%
42.80%
4.32%
100.00%

15.09%
5.59%
32.19%
42.73%
4.40%
100.00%

15.50%
5.91%
31.26%
42.93%
4.40%
100.00%

13.18%
4.83%
37.82%
40.28%
3.90%
100.00%

2007 - 08
15.85%
6.22"/0
30.19%
43.36%
4.38%
100.00%

2008 - 09
16.21%
6.60%
28.97%
43.82%
4.39%
100.00%

2009"1U
16.57%
7.01%
27.78%
44.24%
4.40%
100.00%

16.91%
7.42%
26.63%
44.62'%
4.42%
100.00%

17.25%'
7.86%
25.50%
44.96%
4.43%
100.00%

utilisation

Others

3.90%

for 2003-04

u~i~iGation

for 2011-1~

Others

uomestic

4.43%

Domestic
13.18%

4.83%

Commercial
7.86%

Industry
40.28%

Industry
44.96%

/ ~ Irrigation
,

37.82%

__

223

(:haplcr

IrrigatioE
2~.SO%

IV . Statcwisc

Forecast (Shun Term)

17t11Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity AuthOrity,~',

u.. ut':

Table 4.12
Madhya Pradesh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Actual
2003 - 04 200405
{Base Year)
3377
3832
712
830
128
130
510
470
5583
5859
670
690
3701
4076
1267
1339

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement" MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

2005 - 06

FORECAST
Consumptionlrequirement
Forecast
200708

200607

in MkWh

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

7151
1401
226
726
7872
1023
6001
1714

8249
1619
250
798
8563
1137
6610
1843

9515
1871
277
879
9316
1263
7282
1990

109761
2162
307
967
101341
1403
8022
2160,

4538
929
166
565
6243
746
4490
1419

5375
1064
184
602
6652
829
4945
1505

6200
1218
204
659
7236
921
5448
1602

26113
34.27
13615
39727
68.66
6605

29070
31.77
13536
42605
67.96
7157

32392
29.27
13405
45797
67.26
7773

36131
26.771
13208 ~
49338'
66.66
8462
21678
14452

15908
41.45
11263
27171
64,62
4800

17267
41.27
12134
29401
69.26

21154
39.27
13679
34833
70.06

4846

19095
40.27
12874
31969
70.76
5157

5676

23486
36.77
13658
37145
69.36
6113

9545
6363

10360
6907

11457
7638

12693
8462

14092
9395

15668
10445

17442
11628

19435
12957

O!
1

Pattern of utilisation

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
1Industry
Others
!Total

2003 " 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12 1

21.23%
4.47%
35.10%
27.48%
11.72%
100.00%

22.19%
4.81%
33.93%
27.60%
11.46%
100.00%

23.77%
4.86%
32.69%
27.42%
11.26%
100.00%

25.41%
5.03%
31.44%
27.30%
10.83%
100.00%

26.40%
5.18%
30.81%
27.12%
10.49%
100.00%

27.39%
5.36%
30.15%
26.90%
10.21%
100.00%

28.38%
5.57%
29.46%
26.65%
9.95"/"
100.00%

29.37%
5.78%
28.76%
26.38%
9.71%
100.00%

30.38% '
5.98%
28.05%
26.09% ;
9.50%1
100.00%:

___

____

----------.--

utilisation

for 7.003-04

utilisation

for 2011-12

Others

Others
11.72%

9.50%

Domestic

Industry

27.48%

Industry

Commercial

26.09%

4.47%

\\~

----------------/ /

Irrigation
35.10%

Irrigation
28.05%

Chapter IV: Statewise

Forecast

(Short Term)

224

5.98%

:,,"~1)7central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

W
Table 4.13
Chhattisgarh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Domestic
!Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
!lrrigation
:LT Industries
!HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
!Total Consumption - MkWh
,IT & 0 Losses (%)
:T & 0 Losses - MkWh
'IEnergy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
.'peak Load (MW)
!

Actual
2003 - 04 2004 ~05
(Base Year)
1217
1385

211
39
69
637
298

I
'I'

2005 - 06

328

278
46
80
1184
380

3944

4324

4838

574

588

0
8050
30.34

623
0
9041
28.74

3506

3646

11556
75.41
1749

12687
76,95
1882

1058

6988
30.50
2862
10055
73.15
1569

Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2007 - 08
,
1875
2181

200607

1612

242
47
78

FORECAST

307
49
88

352
52
97
1519
467

1377

416
5321
661

5854

704
0

10095

11225
26.34

2008 - 09

200910

2538
403
55
107
1659
525
6439
753
0

15239
74.55
2334
6062
5164

2952
461
57
117
1790
590
7083

809
0

1911

663
7791
874
0

6738
5740

7484
6375

8311
7080

2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2100

23.94
4362
18222
72.15

3996
604
63
142
2024
744

528
60
129

2883

4014

13859

201112

3435

15391
22.74
4530
19921
70.95
3205

27.54
3837
13932
75.75

12478
25.14
4190
16668
73.35
2594

2010- 11

in MkWh

8570

948
0
17092

21.5<'
4692:
21785

69.75
3565

3774
321ti

Rural Consumption
:Urban Consumption

4347
-3703

4882

5451

4159

4644

9230
7863

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

17.42
3.02%
9.11%
60.70%
9.76%
100.00%

17.21%
3.01%
13.14%
57.79%
8.85%
100.00%

17.83%
3.08%
13.10%
57.71%
8.28%
100.00%

IDomestic
Commercial
Irrigation
I Industry
,Others
iTotal

utilisation

18.57%
3.04%
13.64%
56.83%
7.91%
100.00%

19.43%
3.13%
13.53%
56.31%
7.60%
100.00%

f0r 2003-04

Others

utilisation

;~'76%

22.32/c,
3.43%
12.42%
54.93%
6.91%
100_00%

23.38%
3.53%
11.84%
54.50%
6.75%
100.00%

for 2011-12

Domestic
38%

':'.2.c.:w"'.rCia.l
3.02%
Commercial
3.53%

',Irrlgatlon

'I

--

21.30%
3.33%
12.91%
55.36%
7.10%
100.00%

Othet'S
6.75%

Domestic

20.34%
3.23%
13.30%
55.81%
7.33%
100.00%

2011 - 12

9.11%

Industry

"'"

54.50%

In:igation
E.84%

Industry
60.70%

225

Chapter IV: Statewisc Forecast (Shor! Term)

17ft) Electric Power Survey

Table 4.14
Maharashtra
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWI$E
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(Base Year)

12460
4937
632
1493

200506

5717

678
1689
11410

5262
19113
1925
0
59332
31.40

17863
1849
0

1749

19
51824

55457
32.40
26586
82043

34.12
26843
78667

Forecast
2007-08

2006-07

13538

1545
10733
4818

4724
15239

Consumption/requirement
2008-09

2009-10

in MkWh

2010-11

201112

12662
5354
632

10572

FORECAST

14844
6181
753
1836

16276
6683
871
1995

12049
5786
20451

12721
6362

21882
2173
0
68963
29.40

2040
0
63940

30.40

27164

27934

91875
72.34
14498

17846
7226
1014
2168
13427
6995
23414
2325

19568
7812
1206
2356

21456
8447
1408
2561

23526
9133
1621
2783

14168

14947
8457

157641

26807
2700
0
86782
26.40

286831

7691
25053
2500
0
80355
27.40
30334
110690

31136
117918

9299
2929

0
937371
25.40

28725
97689

74416
28.40
29524
103940

70.94
15720

17062

68.14
18543

66.74
20169

26045
48370

28124
52231

30374

32808'

56408

60929

75.67

75.14

11868

12464

86495
73.74
13390

18138
33686

19410

20766

22379

24137

36047

38566

41561

44826

69.54

---

31924'
125661
65.34
21954

i
I

------

Pattern of utilisation

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

24.04%
9.53'%
20.40%
38.52%
7.51%
100.00%

22.83%
9.65%
19.35%
40.90%
7.26%
100.00%

22.82%
9.64%
19.23%
41.08%
7.23%
100.00%

23.22%
9.67%
18.84%
41.03%
7.24%
100.00%

23.60%
9.69%
18.45%
40.96%
7.31%
100.00%

23.98%
9.71%
18.04%
40.86%
7.40%
100.00%

24.35%
9.72%
17.63%
40.75%
7.54%

24.72%
9.73%
17.22%
40.64%
7.68%
100.00%

25.10%
9.74%'
16.82%

utilisation fG~ 2003-04

utilisation for'2011-12

Others
7.82%

Othen1

7.51%

100.00%

Domestic

Domestic
04%

!
Industry
38.';2%

Indue'ry (

Commercial
9.53%

Commercial
4052%

IrrigaLion
20.40%

Chapter IV : State-wise Forecao;t (Short Tenn)

9.74%

~_

Irrigat.ion
16.82%

226

40.52%1

7.82%
100.00%

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.15
Daman & Diu
SUMMARY OF CA TEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories
Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
I
,Public
Lighting
I Public Water Works
ilrrigation
L T Industries
HT Industries
,Railway
Traction
I
I Non Industrial
ITotal Consumption - MkWh
iT & D Losses ( % )
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
I

'Rural Consumption
IUrban Consumption

Actual
.
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
(Base Year)
42
45
39
26
28
32
4
3
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
118
134
175
728
791
909
0
0
0
0
0
0
917
1002
1170
15.56
15.36
1688
186
185
212
1382
1104
1186
66.31
60.93
60.73
190
223
259
321
596

2006-07

409
760

351
651

Forecast
2007-08

ConsumptionJrequirement in MkWt.
2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

49
35
5
1
3
197
1046
0
0
1337
15.16
239
1575
61.13
294

53
39
6
2
4
220
1203
0
0
1526
14.96
268
1794
61.33
334

57
43
7
2
4
244
1383
0
0
1741
14.76
301
2042
61.53
379

62
48
8
2
4
270
1591
0
0
1985
14.56
338
2324
61.73
430

67
53
10
2
5
297
1829
0
0
2263
14.36
379
2643
61.93
487

73:
59
12
3'
5
325
2104,
0'
0
2579
14.16
425
3005 ,
62.13
552!

468
869

534
992

609
1132

695
1290

792
1471

903,
1677

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 ~07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12 '

4.24%
2.80%
0.22%
92.27%
0.47%
100.00%

4.19%
2.80%
0.26%
92.29%
0.46%
100.00%

3.88%
2.70%
0.25%
92.70%
0.46%
100.00%

3.67%
2.62%
0.24%
92.98%
0.47%
100.00%

3.48%
2.55%
0.24%
93.25%
0.49%
100.00%

3.30%
2.48%
0.23%
93.49%
0.50%
100.00%

3.13%
2.41%
0.22%
93.72%
0.52%
100.00%

2.97%
2.35%
0.22%
93.94%
0.53%
100.00%

2.81%1
2.28%1
0.21%'
94.15%'
0.55%
100.00%,

,-------------------------------------------------DO:Tlestic
:Commercial
:lrrigation
:lndustry
Others
Total

utilisation

Others

for 2003 04

Domestic

for 2011-12
Domestic
2.81%

Others
0.55%

Commercial
2.80%

7'r"
\

utilisation

Irrigation
0.22%

Commercial
2.28%

IrTig<ltion
0.21%

"",Industry
92.27%

Industry
94.15%

227

Charier IV: Slalc\vise Forecast (Shon Tl:nnj

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.16
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones
200304
(Base Year)
26
14
8
3
5
115
1376
0
0
1547
15.08
275
1821
66.01
315

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
;Total Consumption - MkWh
iT & 0 Losses (%)
iT & 0 Losses - MkWh
:Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
I

,Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

Actual
2004 - 05

2005 - 06

30
16
8
3
5
125
1581
0
0
1768
16.00
337
2105
61.46
391

36
46
9
4
6
255
1770
0
0
2127
16.00
405
2532
74.60
387

707
1061

851
1276

619
928

Consumption/requirement

in MkWh

Forecast
2006 - 07 2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

41
50
9
5
7
301
1983
0
0
2396
15.70
446
2842
74.50
435

47
55
10
5
8
353
2220
0
0
2699
15.40
491
3190
74.40
489

53
61
11
6
9
412
2487
0
0
3038
15.10
540
3579
74.30
550

61
67
12
6
10
476
2785
0
0
3419
14.80
594
4013
74.20
617

70
74
13
6
12
553
3120
0
0
3847
14.50
652
4499
74.10
693

80
81
13
71
13
638
3494:
0:
0
4326
14.20
716
5042i
74.00;
778

958
1438

1079
1619

1215
1823

1368
2052

1539
2308

1730,
2596

2011 - 12

I
-------

---------

--------

Pattern of utilisation
-

-------

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

1.68%
0.89%
0.31%
96.43%
0.69%
100.00%

1.71%
0.90%
0.31%
96.44%
0.64%
100.00%

1.67%
2.15%
0.29%
95.25%
0.64%
100.00%

1.70%
2.10%
0.29%
95.32%
0.59%
100.00%

1.73%
2.05%
0.29%
95.36%
0.57%
100.00%

1.76%
2.00%
0.29%
95.40%
0.54%
100.00%

1.79%
1.96%
0.30%
95.44%
0.51%
100.00%

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

utilisation

-------

for 2003-04

utilisation

2010 - 11 201-1 -12:


1.82%
1.92%
0.30%
95.47%
0.49%
100.00%

1
1.85%1
1.87%
0.30%1
95.50%
0.47%:
100.00%

fOr 2011-12

r:~

Commercial

Domestic

Others
Commerc ia 1
Others

0.69%

Domestic
1.68%

'cr.' .'-:. -~,

0.47%

0.89%

'\

//

//

I'

~;".i;.

0.31%
IH. igaoion

1.87%

1.85%

)
//
Indust.ry

Industry

96.43%

L
Chapter IV: Statcwisc Forecast (ShOJi Term)

228

95.50%
I
1

_nJ

-';

_/ )--"-"-~.v
~

17th Efectric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

"
Table 4.17
Andhra Pradesh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
i Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
:Non Industrial
otal Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
iT & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
!Aural Consumption
l~_rbanc::sum~:n

in MkWh

411
13467
2084
6827
1132
100
34085
23.30
10354
44440
68.60
7395

8801
2159
980
514
15722
2663
8999
1250
159
41246
21.96
11606
52853
70.00
8619

9645
2491
1068
568
17101
3028
9737
1330
165
45134
21.37
12267
57401
69.84
9382

10628
2866
1164
628
18603
3443
10615
1415
171
49534
20.54
12804
62338
69.68
10213

11750
3298
1269
694
20236
3915
11612
1510
178
54461
19.87
13505
67966
69.52
11160

13003
3794
1383
768
22013
4451
12705
1620
184
59921
19.34
14367
74289
69.36
12227

14434
4366
1508
850
23946
5061
13905
1750
190
66010
18.91
15393
81404
69.20
13429

16035
5024:
1644'
940
26049.
5755
15223
1900
196:
72766,27
18. 1
16266
89032 i
69.04
147211

25399
8686

27864
9755

30585
10661

33481
11653

36760
12773

40408
14054

44447
15475

48924
17086

538881
18878,

n6

Consumption/requirement

8098
1894
1035
536
14433
2221
8100
1173
130
37620
22.55
10953
48573
72.31
7668

7526
1762

IT

FORECAST

----

Pattern of utilisation
----------

2003 - 04

IDomestic
ICommercia'
Irrigation

2005 - 06

21.53%
5.03%
38.37%
27.43%
7.64%
100.00%

21.34%
5.24%
38.12%
28.27%
7,04%
100.00%

22.08%
5.17%
39.51%
26.14%
7.10%
100.00%

Industry
!Others
iTotal

-----------

2004 - 05

2006 . 07
21.37%
5.52'%
37.89%
28.28%
6.94%
100.00%

-----

utilisation

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

21.46%
5.79%
37.56%
28.38%
6.82%
100.00%

21.58%
6.06%
37.16%
28.51%
6.70%
100.00%

2009-10
21.70%
6.33%
36.74%
28.63%
6.60%
100.00%

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

21.87%
6.61%
36.28%
28.73%
6.51%
100.00%

22.04%:
6.90%!1
35.80% I
28.83% '
6.43%1
1_~~~%1

-------------

for 2003-04

Others
7.10%

utilisation

Others
6.43%

for 2011-12

Domestic
~

22.04%

Domestic
22.08%

rndUoOry( /

rndustry(

26_14\

28_83%

Commercial
5.17%

\::

commercia.
6.90%

Irrigation
39.51%
Irrigation

lli__l!Q.%

229

Chapter IV: Statcwisc

Forecast (Shorl Tcrm)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority:~~';~~i'--

f'
Table 4.18

Kerala
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

FORECAST
Consumption/requirement

Actual
2003-042004-052005-062006-07
(Base Year)

4014

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T & D Losses ( /0 )
T & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
,Peak Load (MW)

4297
1310
187
157
201
545
2527
47
89
9360

1277

169
228
212
540
2522
53
82
9096

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

Forecast
2007-0B

4584
1462
209
205
233
668
2765
49
95
10272
23.90
3226

4932
1639
236
223
251
734

5327
1828
256
252
273
794

2977

3143

52
102

55
109

11147

12037

22.40
3218

20.90
3180

200B-09

2009-10

5754
2039
279
283
296
860
3287
59
115
12973
19.40

in MkWh

2010-112011-12

6215
2275
303
319
322
931
3426
64
122
13977

6713
2538
329
360
352
1008
3614
69
128
15112
15.40

17.90
3047
17025

7251
2831

358'
4061
3B41

1092
3813
75!
1

1351
16345!

25.40

3407

3187

12503

12547

13498

14365

15217

3123
16096

58.81
2427

59.15
2421

60.12
2563

60.47
2712

60.82
2856

61.17
3004

61.52
3159

61.87
3335

5147
3949

5276

5819

6325

6829

7952

8604

93131

4084

4453

4822

5208

7368
5605

6025

6508

7032i

15.001
2884

2965
18077

19230

62.22
3528!
1

Pattern of utilisation
-------

2003 - 04
Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

---

----

---

---

2004 -05 2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

44.63%
14.23%
2.27%
33.43%
5.44%
100.00%

44.25%
14.70%
2.26%
33.29%
5.51%
100.00%

44.26%
15.19%
2.26%
32.71%
5.58%
100.00%

44.35%
15.72%
2.28%
31.97%
5.68%
100.00%

44.47%
1628%
2.31%
31.17%
5.78%
100.00%

44.42%
16.79%
2.33%
30.59%
5.87%
100.00%

44.36%
17.32%
2.35%
30.01%
5.96%
100.00%

44.13%
14.04%
2.33%
33.66%
5.85%
100.00%

utilisation

45.90%
14.00/0
2.15%
32.82%
5.13%
100.00%

for 2003-04

utilisation

for 2011-12

Others
5.96%

Others
5.85%

Industry
Industry
33.66%

Domestic
44.13%

,I

30.01%

Domest_i,.
44.36%

27.25

Irrigation
2.35%

Irrigation \
2.13%

Commercial
14.0n
Commercial
11.32%

Ch<lptcr IV. Stalc\\ise Forecast (Short Term)

230

}f!~~>
Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.19
Karnataka
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Consumption/requirement

Actual
Forecast
2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
(Base Year)
_

4479
1582
569

Domestic
i Commercial

& Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
;;HT industries
[Railway Traction
INon Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
I
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

4928
1765
627
1414
9371
2459
4013

1277

9006
2347
3680
37

166
23143
26.10
8174
31317

65.30
5475

!Rural Consumption
:Urban Consumption
--

FoRECAST

2648
4362

14963
9918

28747
24.00

35835

37825

43
193
31192

70.75

22.00
8798
39989
70.45

6103

6480

17230
11516

18520
12672

9078

70.55
5798

5613

11506
3294
5337

15975
10543

-------

2010-112011-12

888
2222

6008
3304
982
2510

12457
3779
5822
45

13548
4370
6364
49

2881

1969

184

175
26518
26.00
9317

5762

5526
2513
810

4893
40

38

26.44
8907
33688
68.52

9200

5300
2192
745
1749
10753
2889

685
1562
10032

38
166
24781

13944
----

5100
1913

2009-10

in MkWh

6265

6532

3790

4348

1086
2838
14768
5073
6958
53
221
41050

1201

3211
16099
5957
7606

57
229

203
34059
20.00
8515

37347
18.50

8477

8408

8299

42574

45824

49458

53540

212

70.15
6928

17.00

7489

69.55
8118

21942
15405

23999
17051

69.85

20101
13958

45241
15.50

69.25
8826
26263
18978

-------

Pattern of utilisation
-------

:Domestic
Commercial
irrigation
Industry
jOthers
ilTotal
I

-----------

---------

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 . 06

2006 - 07

19.35%
6.84%
38.92%
26.04%
8.85%
100.00%

19.89%
7.12%
37.81%
26.12%
9.06%
100.00%

19.23%
7.21%
37.83%
26.44%
9.28%
100.00%

18.44%
7.63%
37.41%
27.07%
9.46%
100.00%

2007 - 08
17.72%,
8.06%
36.89%
27.67%
9.67%
100.00%

2008 -09

2009-10

16.92%
8.46%
36.57%
28.19%
9.86%
100.00%

2011 - 12

201011

16.09%
8.85%
36.28%
28.74%
10.05%
100.00%

15.26%
9.23%
35.98%
29.31%
10.22%
100.00%

14.44%
9.61%
35.58%
29.98%
10.39%
100.00%

---

T
,

utilisation

for

2003-04

utilisation

fo~

20l1-12

Domestic
14.44%

Others
10.39%

Others

8.85%

Industry

Conunercial

26.04%

Conunercial

6.84%

Indus",' (
29.98'

9.61%

'v:..
Irrigation
38.92%

Irrigation
35.58%

231

ChapIn

IV . Statcwise Forecast (Short Term)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority ~~.

Table 4.20
Tamil Nadu
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
i Public Water Works
I Irrigation
:LT Industries
I HT Industries
! Railway Traction
iNon Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
:Peak Load (MW)

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(Base Year)
9920
11093
3867
4115
371
423
728
760
9406
9825
4877
4933
9221
9192
505
515
413
430
39308
41286
17.16
19.28
8142
9861
47450
51147
71.14
71.88
7614
8123

2005-06

Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2006-07
2007-08

2008-09

2009

10

2010-11

in MkWh
2011-12

12276
4322
485
808
10248
5133
9515
550
443
43780
18.50
9938
53717
73.45
8349

13654
4572
535
893
10747
5619
9880
580
456
46935
18.00
10303
57238
72.88
8966

15436
4901
592
1015
11326
6110
10429
620
469
50898
17.50
10797
61695
72.30
9741

17471
5326
723
1160
11960
6718
11027
670
482
55536
17.00
11375
66911
71.73
10649

19795
5866
793
1327
12629
7470
11678
710
494
60762
16.50
12007
72769
71.15
11675

22453
6551
870
1528
13336
8386
12386
770
505
66786
16.00
12721
79507
70.58
12860

25495 :
7399.
957
1768'
140821
9489
13158
835
518 ;
73703 ;
15.50
13519;
87222 i
70.00!
14224:

29068
14712

30976
15959

33272
17626

35948
19.589

38866
21896

42191
24594

45980
27723

2007 - IJS

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

20~O - 11

2011 - 12

31.46%
9.59%
21.54%
31.95%
5.46%
100.00%

32.58%
9.65%
20.79%
31.51%
5.47%
100.00%

Rural Consumption
I,Urban Consumption

26189
13119

27502
13784

-----------

Pattern of utilisation
----

------

Domestic
! Commercial
:Irrigation
I Industry
~Others
'Total

--------

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 . 06

25.24%
9.84%
23.93%
35.87%
5.13%
100.00%

26.87%
9.97%
23.80%
34.21%
5.15%
100.00%

28.04%
9.87%
23.41%
33.46%
5.22%
100.00%

- ---------

2006 - 07
29.09%
9.74%
22.90%
33.02'%
5.250/0
100.00%

30.3:1%
9.63%
22.25%
32.49%
5.30%
100.00%

-------

utilisation

for

33.62%
9.81%
19.97%
31.10%
5.50%.
100.00%

34.59%;
10.04%1
19.11%1
30.73%

-----------

utilisation

2003-04

for 2011-12

Others

Others
5.13%

5.53%

Domestic
34.59%
Industry
30.73%

Industry

35.87%

Irrigation
19.11%

Irrigation
23.93%

Commercial
10.04%

Chapler IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Tcrm)

232

/j

5.53
~00.0~0~0

,~~t/-'Central

Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Swvey

if;:

i'

Table 4.21
Pondicherry
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

Actual
Forecast
2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
(Base Year)

Commercial & Miscellaneous


Public Lighting
;Public Water Works
lrrigation
LT Industries
I HT Industries
',Railway Traction
'Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
I

T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses - MkWh

Energy Requirement ~MkWh

i Load Factor ( %

i Peak Load

Consumption/requirement

(MW)

85
15
22
118
82
1163
0
36
1795
11.60
236
2030
71.84
323

87
17
24
120
88
1191
0
6
1821
18.15
404
2225
73.11
347

105
18
27
126
107
1465
0
6
2197
17.80
476

2439

2673

76.32
365

1413
382

1438
383

1578
422

96
17
25
123
97
1321
0
6
2000
18.00
439

75.92
402

114
18
29
129
118
1625
0
7
2418
17.60
516
2934
75.52
444

1732
465

1905
513

2009-10

125
19
31
133
130
1804
0
7
2678
17.40
564

2010-112011-12

75.12
493

137
20
33
137
144
2002
0
7
2973
17.20
618
3590
74.72
549

0
7
3305
17.00
677
3981
74.32
612

2099
579

2317
655

2561
743

3242

in MkWh

150
20
35
142
158

164
21
38
146
175
2469
0
7
3677
16.80
742
4419
73.92;
683:

2223

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

,~
I

2833
844

Pattern of utilisation

I'Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
I
;Others
Total

utilisation

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

15.20%
4.76%
6.56%
69.39%
4.10%
100.00%

15.81%
4.79%
6.59%
70.23%
2.58%
100.00%

15.74%
4.82%
6.13%
70.87%
2.44%
100.00%

15.62%
4.77%
5.71%
71.55%
2.34%
100.00%,

15.58%
4.73%
5.34%
72.12%
2.23%
100.00%

16.02%
4.67%
4.97%
72.22%.
2.12%
100.00%

16.58%
4.60%
4.62%
72.19%
2.01%
100.00%

17.21%
4.53%
4.29%
72.07'%
1.90%
100.00%

17.87%
4.45%
3.97%,
71.90%
1.80%
100.00%

11
I'

for 2003-04

utilisation

for 2011 12

Others
1.80%

Others

4.10%

(/~r;

..~'5.20:o~e"ia'

-)'

\
\

Industry
69.39%

17

4.76%

\.

Irrigation
6.56%

J/

~_

87%

Domestic

\"

Domestic
\

~~

Irrigati()[l
"J .97%

Industry "'""-..

----

Commercial
4.45%

,,//

"11.90%'

233

Chapter

IV: Statewise

Forecast (Short Term)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority/tc:"~-i'f

"~lt

Table 4.22

Bihar
SUMMARY

OF CATEGORYWISE

FORECAST

(UTILITIES)
Consumption

Categories

Consumption/requjrement

Actual

200304

in MkWh

Forecast

'

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

200706

2006-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

1209
301

2250
351

33
382

6388
454
38
271
1674
286
1094
461

8084
495

9940
540

(Base Year)

1138
284

,Domestic
Commercial
& Miscellaneous
Public Ughtjng
Public Water Works
:Irrigation
I

'ILT Industries
HT Industries
RaHway Traction
iNon Industrial
Total Consumption

- MkWh

:T & D Losses ( %)
:T & D Losses - MkWh
iEnergy Requirement
- MkWh

ILoad Faclor (%)


!Peak Load (MW)
Rural Consumption
iUrban

Consumption

28

29

184
1029
135
649
276

190
1061
140
679
335

1668
323
31
204
1142
165
747
355

3722
37.00
2186
5908
85.59
788

3944
35.50
2171
6115
71.23
980

4635
34.00
2388
7023
71.00
1129

1732
1991

1801
2143

1972
2663

---,-----_

..

33

34

219
1286
191
822
376

235
1443
220
904
401

489
417
36
252
1577
252
994
429

5527
32.50
2661
8188
70.00
1335

6948
31.00
3122
10070
69.00
1666

8848
29.50
3702
12551
67.50
2123

10665
28.00
4148
14813
66.00
2562

12705
26.50
4581
17286
64.50
3059

14929
25.00
4976.
19905'1'
63.00
3607

2287
3240

3077
3871

4160
4688

5068
5597

6102
6602

7225
7704

--------

Pattern

----

Domestic

Ilndustry
!Others
!Total

uti1isatiol'

----

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

30.57%
7.63%
27.64%
21.05%
13.11%
100.00%

30.66%
7.64%
26.89%
20.77%
14.05%
100.00%

35.99%
6.97%
24.64%
19.67%
12.73%
100.00%

40.71%
6.35%
23.27%
18.33%
11.35%
100.00%

47.91%
5.50%
20.77%
16.18%
9.64%
100.00%

55.28%
4.71%
17.82%
14.08%
8.11%
100.00%

2003-04

utilisation

2009-10
59.90%
4.26%
15.70%
12.93%
7.22%
100.00%

for

2010 - 11 --2-011=12]
63.63%
3.90%
13.95%
12.00%
6.52%
100.00%

2011-12

Others
5.99%

Others

Industry

13.11%

Irrigation~1.28%
12.53%
'\
/

If...
,,
Industry

Commercial
3.62%

21.05%

"

\,/
I
\.

'\,_ Domestic
66.58%

IrrigatiOn
27.64%

Chapler IV StalcWlsc Forecast (Sh011 Term)

of utilisation

2003 - 04

fOI

42
313
1871
360
1323!
540

--------------

-----

Commercial
IIrrigation

40
291
1772
322
1203
498

234

66.58% I
3.62%
12.53%
11.28%
5.99%
100.00%
I

~~~ir/

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

SUMMARY

Table

4.23

West

Bengal

OF CATEGORYWISE

FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Domestic
Commercial

& Miscellaneous

Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
L T Industries
HT Industries

5622
2089
215
434
792
794
8381
876
513

7471

Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption
T&DLosses(%)

5488
2184
228
413
749
686

MkWh

T & 0 Losses - MkWh


Energy Requirement
- MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

832
327
18380
26.80
6729

19716

25109

26573

25.80
6857

64.35

64.22
4723

4454

4443

4196

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

15273

14184

6303

Consumption/requirement

6983
2479
234
469
892
1079
9362
978
253

2370

218
451
840
1011

8635
927
243
20999

7740

2593
250
488
949
1154
9987

1035
264
24460

22728
23.47

24.47
27802

29697

64.19
4944
4750
16249

268
504
1011
1234
10779

11521

1098
275

1175

287

26466

28555
20.61
7415

21.62

22.60
7141

6969

6803

9523
2838
286
525
1079
1322

8583
2712

7302
33768

31601

35971

in MkWh

10571

11663

2970
306
552

3109
326
575

1150
1414
12411

1227
1509
13484
1423

1289
299
30962
19.31

312
33626
18.02

7409
38370

64.03

63.89

63.74

63.56

63.40

5294

5646

6048

6460

6909

5186
17542

5676
18784

6264
20201

6887
21669

23341

08

2008 09

7394

41020
63.22,
7407

7620

8493
25134

----

Pattern
------

of utilisation

. -------

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

:Domestic

29.86%

28.51%

30.02%

30.72%

31.64%

32.43%

33.35%

34.14%

34.68%;

]Commercial

11.88%
4.07%

10.60%

11.29%
4.00%
45.94%

10.91'%
3.92%

10.60%
3.88%
45.55%

10.25%

9.94%
3.78%

9.59%
3.71%
44.65%

9.25%:
3.65%:
44.59%,

7.90%
100.00%

7.84%;
100.00%

Ilrrigation
ilndustry
'Others
Total

44.39%
9.80%
100.00%

utilisation

4.02%
46.54%
10.33%
100.00%

8.76%
100.00%

45.94%
8.51%
100.00%

2007

12

2003 - 04

i
I

3.82%
45.39%
8.11%

8.33%
100.00%

for 2003-04

200910

44.98%
7.96%
100.00%

100.00%

utj.lisation

2010 - 11

for

2011

2011-12

Others

Others
9.80%

7.84%

,/

Domestic
34.6fl%

\
Industry'
~4. 59%

Irrigation
4.07%

lrriqalion
3.65%

235

Chapter

I Commercial

9.2:>%

IV . St<.llcwisc Forecast (ShOlt Term)

/'1

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

"-~j$?'
i~
!Y'

Table 4.24
Jharkhand
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

Actual
2003-042004-05
(Base Year)

IDomestIc
:Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
:LT Industries
! HT Industries
! Railway T faction
i Non Industrial
ITotal Consumption MkWh
IT & 0 Losses ( % )
!T & D Losses MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
jpeak Load (MW)

884
199

43
50

56

46
54
61

128

147

5816
726

6275

780

1055
218
51

1821
267
62

71

79

170
7252
814

195
8051
851

224
8568
892

8446
23.62
2612
11057

9689

63.39
1991

1385
241
56
65

71
89

59

7618
24.61

1815

Consumption/requirement

in MkWh

Forecast
2005062006072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12

615
185

2487
10106
63.56

FORECAST

22.06
2742

o
10922

2399
296

3163
324

4174
352

68
78

74
85

80
93

98
256
9089
938

106
293

114
334
10142
1049

990

3~;1'
100
123
381
10663,
1

11161
O'

11994
21.35

13222

14648

16339

18364

21.38
3984
18631

21.45

21.55

4463

5044
23408

3398

3256
15249

63.70

21.44
2981
13903
67.72

63.15

21.34
3587
16809
62.85

2228

2344

2756

3053

12431

9612

5512

20801

62.59

62.36
3808

62.20

4296

,Rural Consumption
iUrban Consumption
,

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

utilisation

OLhers
10 '/5%

{or 2003-04

utilisation

Others
7.0n

DomGstic
8.07%
Commercial
2.42%

Domestic
/

/~0\'n;Y;4tion

T\

i
\

"

.......

for 2011-12

30.02%

I
:',;.

Industry
60.14%

Industry

\ \, cormnercial
\
2.08%

Irrigation
0.67%

78.02%

_nnJ

Chapter IV . Statcv....jsc forecast

(Short Tcrm)

236

~~)::/

17th Electric Power Sutvey

Central Electricity Authority


t'

Table 4.25
Orissa
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

utilisation

Consumption/requirement

Actual
Forecast
2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
(Base Year)

for 2003-04

2009-10

utilisation

in MkWh

2010-112011-12

for 2011-12

Others
6.58%

Others
10.51%

Domestic
45.00%

Irrigation

7.24%

Industry

41.69%

Irrigation
2.60%

2.53%

Cumnercial
4.13%

237

Chapter IV: Stalewisc Forecast (Short Tenll)

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.26
Sikkim
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories
.

.
Actual
2003 - 04 2004 - 05
(Base. Year)

!Commerclal & MIscellaneous


Public Lighting
Public Water Works
llrrigalion
'LT Industries
HT Industries
I Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
& D Losses (%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
IIPeak Load (MW)

22

iT

Rural Consumption
'Urban Consumption

2005 - 06

20

24
29

26
35

o
o

o
o

o
o

11

13

15

o
o

o
o

FORECAST
Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2006 - 07 2007 - 08

29

17
2

19
3

o
o
o

90
51.00
94
184
40.00

53

107
47.50
97
204
40.50
58

123
44.00
96
219
41.00
61

138
40.50
94
232
41.50
64

44
45

53
54

61
62

70
68

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

35
42
2

38
45
3

42
48
4

46

21
5

24
6

28

5
178
33.50
89
267
42.50
72

8
201
30.00
85
286
43.00

76

4
218
27.50
83
301
43.50
79

96
82

111
90

120
98

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

37.90%
19.57%
0.00%
14.60%
27.92%
100.00%

37.87%
19.00%
0.00%
15.14%
27.99%
100.00%

39.26%
19.13%
0.00%
16.11%
25.49%
100.00%

32
40
2

37
1

o
o

2
156
37.00
92
248
42.00

67

in MkWh

82
75

51,

~I

31

91

01I
4.
240:
2500
1

80

3201
44.00'1
83
132

'~I

Pattern of utilisation

Domestic
Commercial
'Irrigation
Industry
Others
,Total

utilisation

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

40.99"10
24.61%
0.00%
12.29%
22.12%
100.00%

38.83%
22.53%
0.00%
11.91%
26.73%
100.00%

for

2005 - 06
38.31%
21.59%
0.00%
11.8We:
28.22':i6
lOG.OO%

2006 - 07

200708

3f~.c1d%
~1.04%
0.00%
13.12%
27.40%
100.00%

38.18%
20.3010
0.00%
13.98%
27.55%
100.00%

200304

utilisation

for

2011-'

18.99%1
0.00%
16.77%
24.11%1
1~.~~O%

2011-12

Domestic
40.13%

0.00%

Industry
12.29%

Irrigation
conunerciill

0.00%

24.61%

Commercial
18.99%

Charier /V: Slatl'wisc Forecast (Short Term)

238

40.13%'

Others
24.11%

Irrigation

12

~mll!
j'ii~::"~Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table

ConsumptIon Categones

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public

Lighting

Public Water Works


Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses

- MkWh

Energy Requirement - MkWh


Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
Rural Consumption

IUrban Consumption

2003-04
(Base Year)
697
229
16

4.27

Assam
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)

FORECAST

Actual
2004-05

Forecast
2007-08

2005-06

884
279
7
37
18
105
619

60
50
124
513

Ccnsumption/requirement

2006-07

992
276
16
65

1241
304
16
70
55
190

50
161
650

682

2008-09

2009-10

in MkWh

2010-11

2011-12

1553
334
18

1942
367
19

2429
404

76

82

88

95

61
228
716

67
271
752

73

81
369
823

3801
480
23
103
88
426
862

20

318
787

3039
441
21

231
1920
39.31
1244
3164
54.56
662

302
2250
40.95
1560
3810
65.60
663

305
2514
34.90
1348
3862
64.00
689

308
2868
29.50
1200
4068
63.50
731

311

315
3815
22.50
4922
62.25
903

318
4438
21.50
1215
5653
61.50
1049

321
5190
20.50
1338
6529
60.75
1227

324
6106
19.50
1479,
7585!
60.00
1443

672
1248

761
1489

876
1638

1004
1864

1336
2479

1551
2887

1808
3382

2119
3987

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

58.54%
8.50%
1.55%
22.98%
8.43%
100.00%

62.25%
7.86%
1.44%
21.10%
7.36'%
100.00%

3296
25.00
1099
4395
63.00

1107

796
1155
2141

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04
36.28%
11.95%
2.63%
33.18%
15.97%
100.00%

Domestic

Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others

Total

utilisatiGn

2004 - 05
39.28%
12.38%
0.78%
32.16%
15.40%
100.00%

2005 - 06
39.47%
10.97%
1.99%
32.23%
15.34%
100.00%

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

43.29%
10.59%
1.92%
30.43%
13.n%
100.00%

2008 - 09

47.11%
10.14%
1.84%
28.64%
12.28%
100.00%

for 2003-04

2009-10
54.74%
9.10%
1.65%
24.91%
9.60%
100.00%

50.92%
9.63%
1.74%
26.83%
10.88%
100.00%

utilisation

for

2011 12

Others

7.36%

Industry
21.10%

-.LnUustry
~ \\
13.18%

Cormnercial
"~

7.86%

Domestic
62.25%

Irrigation
2.63%

Coromercial
11.95%

239

Chapter IV' Statev,-isc Forecast (Short Tenn)

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

~~Iv;

.-------!~/

Table 4.28
Arunachal Pradesh
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(Base Year)

Commercial & Miscellaneous


Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
T & 0 Losses - MkWh
i Energy Requirement - MkWh
i Load Factor ( % )
'Peak Load (MW)

53
7
6

49

53

9
8

16
7

2005-06

2006-07

Forecast
2007-08

o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

109
37.50
66
175
40.00
50

101
36.00
57
158
2863
63

137
34.50
72
210
32.00
75

156
33.00
77
233
33.00
81

24
85

21
80

32
106

37
119

------

-------

2009-10

68
22
8

o
o
o

2008-09

63
19
8

58
17
7

Consumption/requirement
2010-11

2011-12

74
24
9

80
27
10

86'

10

11

o
o
o

in MkWh

30!
10

o
1

o
o
o

o
o
o

177
31.50
82
259
34.00
87

201
30.00
288
35.00
94

229
28.50
91
320
36.00
101

27.00
96
356
37.00
110

0'
287
25.51
98
386
38.00
116'

42
135

49
153

56
173

64
195

71;
2161

86

260

01,

Rural Consumpti?n
,Urban Consumption
I

Pattern of utilisation
--------------

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
'Others
Total

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

37.82%
48.42%
0.00%
2.41%
11.35%
100.00%

30.93%
48.30%
0.00%
4.45%
16.32%
100.00%

40.98%
38.68%
0.00%
4.10%
16.24%
100.00%

43.19%
36.94%
0.00%
4.08%
15.79%
100.00%

45.34%
35.28%
0.00%
4.03%
15.34%
100.00%

47.44%
33.69%
0.00%
3.98%
14.89%
100.00%

2009-10
49.48%
32.18%
0.00%
3.90%
14.45%
100.00%

2010 - 11
51,47%
30.73%
OPO%
3;80%
14100%
100.00%

2011 -12
52.18%
30.11%
0.00%;
3.80%'
13.91%
100.00%

------

utilisation

for 2003-04

utilisation

Irrigation
0.00%
Others

for 2011-12

others
13.91%
Irrigation
0.00%

11.]5%

Domestic
52.18%
Commercial
]0.11%

48.42%

Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Tcnn)

240

il;~1I[

17th Electric Power Survev

,Ji._~',>; Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.29

ConsumptIon Categories

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works

IIrri9alion
L T Industries

HT Industries
'Railway Traction
I Non Industrial
,Total Consumption - MkWh
'T & 0 Losses ('Yo)
& 0 Losses MkWh
energy Requirement - MkWh
I Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

IT

I.RuraJ Consumption
i urban Consumption
--

200304
(Base Year)
104
12
3
8
1
8
0
0
41
175
65.18
328
504
47.65
121

Manipur
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)

FORECAST

Actual
200405

200506

200607

Forecast
2007 -08

113
12
3
9
0
7
1
0
32
178
62.13
291
469
59.52
90

124
14
4
10
2
21
13
0
41
228
58.00
315
544
53.22
117

148
15
4
12
2
25
16
0
49
271
54.00
318
589
50.00
134

177
17
4
14
3
29
19
0
58
320
50.00
320
641
50.50
145

104
73

133
95

160
111

191
129

100
75

Consumption/requirement
2008 - 09
.
210
19
5
16
4
34
24
0
68
379
46.00
323
702
51.00
157
229
150

in MkWh

2009 -10

2010 -11

201112

250
21
5
19
5
40
27
0
78
444
42.00
322
766
51.50
170

297
23
6
21
5
46
33
0
90
519
38.00
318
838
52.00
184

352
25
6
25
6
52
38
0
102
606
35.00
326
932
52.50
203

271
173

321
199

378
228

----

Pattern of utilisation
I

2003 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - OS

54.40%
6.00%
0.69%
14.75%
24.16%
100.00%

54.77%
5.62%
0.83%
14.81%
23.97%
100.00%

55.14%
5.27%
0.92%
14.96%
23.71%
100.00%

?'1G[,

"::0

:o'CO_? - oS

2010 - 11

56.26%
4.63%
1.02%
15.11%
22.98%
100.00%

57.12%
4.36%
1.03%
15.04%
22.44%
100.00%

2011

12
1

Domestic
iCommercial
I Irrigation
ilndustry
',Others
iTotal

59.12%
6.69%
0.35%
4.56%
29.28%
100.00%

63.8]0/0
6.93%
0.12%
4.53%
24.56%
100.00%

55.45%
4.92%
0.98%
15.30%
23.35%
100.00%

58.10%:
4.11%'
1.04%1
14.85%,
21.91%
100.00%'

i.._

utilisation

'.L -i" c. t_ -~ (" -

foe 2003-04

.::: 2'vl1-1".i

Others
21.91%

Domestic
59.12%

Industry

4.56%.,

"

Industry ,
14.85%

Irrigation
0.35%

Domestic
58.10%

Irrigation
/

1.04%

Commercial
6.69%

Commercial
4.11%

241

Chapter

I V . Stalcwisc

Forecast (Short Term'l

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

:9'im~

Consumption/requirement

in MkWh

Table 4.30
Meghalaya
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)

Consumption Categories

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
,Public Water Works
IIIrrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
IRailway Traction
I'Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T & D Losses (%)
T & D Losses - MkWh
I,Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
,Peak Load (MW)

Actual
2003 - 04 2004 - 05
(Base Year)
159
172
31
39
2
1
26
25
0
1
5
5
451
486
0
0
123
128
797
856
16.86
28.35
162
339
959
1195
60.00
59.50
182
229

2005 - 06

Forecast
2006 - 07 2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12

430
186
4
51
1
15
637
0
163
1487
17.00
304
1791
57.00
359

492
228
4
53
1
18
667
0
171
1635
16.00
311
1946
56.50
393

564
263
5
55
1
20
698
0
180
1786
15.00
315
2101
56.00
428

968
519

1044
590

1128
658

328
116
3
46

221
61
2
43
1
8
513
0
134
982
21.00
261
1243
59.00
241

287
87
3
44
1
9
546
0
141
1118
20.00
279
1397
58.50
273

148
1229
19.00
288
1517
58.00
299

376
149
3
48
1
13
606
0
155
1352
18.00
297
1649
57.50
327

691
291

769
349

830
399

897
455

11
576

i
I

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

572
225

615
241

Pattern of utilisation
I

2003 - 04

2004 ~05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12 :

19.95%
3.92%
0.06%
57.20%
18.87%
100.00%

20.05%
4.50%
0.11%
57.35%
17.99%
100.00%

22.53%
6.20%
0.05%
52.98%
18.24%
100.00%

25.67%
7.75%
0.05%
49.71%
16.82%
100.00%

26.71%
9.42%
0.05%
47.76%
16.06%
100.00%

27.80%
11.01%
0.05%
45.81%
15.33%
100.00%

28.94%
12.52%
0.05%
43.85%
14.64%
100.00%

30.13%
13.96%
0.05%
41.89%
13.98%
100.00%

31.57%
14.731
0.04%:
40.22%1
13.44%
100.00%1

:Domestic
Commercial
,Irrigation
!Industry
,'Others
'Total

utilisation

for

utilisation

2003-04

for 2011-12

Others
13.44%

Domestic
19.95%

Domestic
31.57%

Commercial
3.92%

Irrigation
0.06%

Industry
40.22%
Industry

'57.7.0%
Commercial

Irrigation
0.04%

Chapter

rv: Statewisc

Forecast (Short Term)

242

14.73%

i~13'111 '
lEI
'A
'.J~~>~~i,;'
Centra
ectriclty

17th Electric Power Survey

uthority

Table 4.31
Mizoram
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)

Consumption Categones

(Base

82
7

:Public

19

Works

Consumption

- MkWh

T&DLosses(%)
1 & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement
! Load Factor
(% )

- MkWh

Peak Load (MW)


;Rural Consumption
Urban

Consumption

2010-112011-12

85
7
6
18

o
2

o
o

107
7
12

123

23

25

2
2
1

2
3
1

8
13

141
9
15
28
3
3
2

160
10
16
31
4
4
2

178
11

18
32
5
5
3

201
13
22
38
6
6
4

189
12
20

36
5
5
3

8
130
52,93
146
276
44,38
71

9
126
43,39
96
222
37,82
67

10
163
41,00
113
276
36A7
86

10
186
37.00
109
295
36,97
91

12
212
33,00
104
316
37.47
96

13
239
29,00
98
337
37.97
101

14
265
25.00
88
353
36.47
105

15
286
24.00

110

17
307
23,00
92
398
39,47
115

24
106

23
103

32
131

37
148

43
169

49
190

53
212

58
228

62
245

Railway Traction
:Non Industrial
I

'Total

12

Irrigation
!L T Industries
HT Industries

2009-10

in MkWh

Yearl

IDomestIc
ICommercial
& Miscellaneous
:Public Lightmg
Water

ConsumptionJrequirement

Actual
Forecast
2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09

90
376
38.97

Pattern of utilisation

..~-----_._-----i

Domestic

"Commercial
Irrigation
'Industry
IOthers
Total

uttlJEeti0~

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

63.33%
5.43%
0.00%
1.28%
29.95%
100.00%

67.41%
5.20%
0.00%
1.54%
25.85%
100,00%

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 -10

2010 - 11

66.34%
4.28%
1.24%
2.05%
26.10%
100.00%

66.45%
4.13%
1.46%
2.29%
25.66%
100.00%

66.90%
4.04%
1.63%
2.51%
24.92%
100.00%

67.30%
4.02%
1.74%
2.71%
24.24%
100.00%

66.22%
4.10%
1.89%
2.94%
24.85%
100.00%

2011 - 12

65.92%

4.42%
0.92%
1.74%
27.00%
100.00%

f0r. 200)-04

utili8ati0~

for

2011-12

65.45%1
4.20%
2.02%
3.17%,
25.16%1
100.00%1,

Others
25.16%

0.00%

Industry
3.17%

Industxy
1.28%
In:"igdtion

Domestic
63.33%

Irrigation
2.02%

COll1lflrcial
4.20%

Domestic
65.45%

5.43%

243

Chapter

IV . Statcwise

Forecast (Short Temll

17th Electric Power SUIVey

Central Electricity Authority,":'~~'QT

Table 4.32
Nagaland
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categories

Domestic
"commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
I
'Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
I Railway Traction
iNon Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
iT & 0 Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
I
;Peak
Load (MW)
i

Rural Consumption
Urban Consumption

I
----.

Actual
2003-04 2004-05
(Base Year)
113
120
15
18
4
1
0
3
0
0
4
36
0
0
0
0
25
40
196
183
43.46
41.03
136
141
332
324
40.32
52.29
94
71
103
93

FORECAST
Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2006-07
2007-08

2005-06

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

201112

127
23
5
3
0
22
0
0
44
225
40.00
150
375
51.17
84

140
20
6
4
0
25
29
0
48
270
37.00
159
429
51.40
95

147
22
7
4
0
29
58
0
52
319
34.00
164
483
51.60
107

167
24
8
5
0
33
72
0
67
366
31.00
165
531
51.80
117

189
26
9
6
0
38
101
0
63
431
28.00
167
598
52.00
131

213
28
10
6
0
44
115
0
68
485
25.00
161
646
52.20
141

242
30
12
7
0
51
130
0
73
544
22.00
154
698
52.40
152

117
109

135
135

152
167

174
192

204
227

230
255

259
286

95
89

----

"'---

in MkWh

---

----

Pattern of utilisation
---

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
IOthers
Tota
i
'-_
I

'I

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2809 - 10

57.82%
7.76%
0.00%
18.15%
16.28%
100.00%

65.52%
9.98%
0.00%
1.99%
22.50%
100.00%

56.58%
10.30%
0.00%
9.77%
23.35%
100.00%

51.71%
7.23%
0.00%
20.01%
21.05%
100.00%

46.21%
6.96%
0.00%
27.19%
19.64%
100.00%

45.68%
6.55%
0.00%
28.81%
18.96%
100.00%

43.77%
6.01%
0.00%
32.34%
17.88%
100.00%

--

2010 - 11
43.96%
5.77%
0.00%
32.91%
17.36%
100.00%

201 i

44.42%1
5.52%,
0.00%
33.16%
16.91%
100.00%

----

utilisation for ~003-0~

Htilisat,ion

for

201.1-12

Others
16.91%

Others
16.28\

Industry
18.15\

Domestic
44.42%

Domestic
57.82\
Industry

33.16%

Irrigation
0.00\
Commercial
7.76%

Irrigation
0.00\

Chapter IV: Statewise

forecast

(Short Term)

244

Commercial
5.52%

,,;l

, asm-i,-

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Swvey

,;if;:';'~~}

Table 4.33
Tripura
SUMMARY OF CA TEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
ConsumptIonCategones

Domestic
Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
,LT Industries
HT Industries
Railway Traction
Non Industrial
Total Consumption - MkWh
T&DLosses(%)
I
.T
& D Losses - MkWh
'Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(Base Yearl
156
148
36
33
8
7

2005-06

Forecast
2007-08

2006-07

183
37

Consumption/requirement
2008-09

217

257

304

40
9

44
9

49

66

72

88
60

97

2009

10

359

117

93
129

528
66
13
101
142

77

83

90

56

79

71

73

65

65

10
78
106
71

o
o
o

8
61
80
55

o
o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

414
38.21
256
670
46.42
165

380

423
38.50
265
688
48.00
164

479
36.00
270
749
48.30
177

544

41.00
264
644
46.00
160

33.50
273
817
48.60
192

618
31.00
278
896
48.90
209

704
28.50
280
984
49.20
228

248
166

228
152

254
169

267
192

324
219

367
251

417
287

~al
Consumption
Urban Consumption
----

____

2011-12

425

54

62

2010-11

in MkWh

60
12

11

85

o
o
o

o
o
o

o
o
o

802
26.00
282
1084
49.50
250

940
23.50
289
1229
49.80
262

474
326

553
367

---

Pattern of utilisatlon

[----

IDomestic

Commercial
,Irrigation

~stry
Others
Total

utilisation

____

-------

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

37.70%
8.80%
19.00%
17.50%
17.00%
100.00%

39.07%
8.62%
18.68%
17.10%
16.54%
100.00%

43.31%
8.64%
18.91%
12.96%
16.18%
100.00%

45.25%
8.32%
18.37%
12.50%
15.55%
100.00%

47.19%
8.08%
17.81%
12.01%
14.92%
100.00%

49.11%
7.88%
17.23%
11.49%
14.29%
100.00%

51.05%
7.68%
16.65%
10.95%
13.67%
100.00%

52.99%
7.47%
16.07%
10.41%
13.06%
100.00%

-------.-

for 2003-0~

utilisati0n

20"11 - 12
56.13%1
7.06%,
15.07%1
9.61%
12.13%1
100.00% :

far 2011-12

Ot.hers
12.13%

Others
17.00%

Industry
17.50%

Irrigat.ion
15.07%

Domest.ic
56.13%

Irrigat.ion
19.00%

Commercial
8.80%
Commercial
7.06%

245

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority:~~~,

Table 4.34
Andaman & Nicobar
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumption Categones

,Domestic
i Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Ughting
IPUblic Water Works
,Irrigation
i LT Industries
HT Industries
' Railway Traction
I Non Industrial
iTotal Consumption - MkWh
'T & 0 Losses (%)
iT & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement" MkWh
I Load Factor ( % )
:Peak Load (MW)

2003-04
(Base Year)
60
27
6
1
0
5
0
0
14
113
25.95
40
153
51.00
34

Rural Consumption
m

2005-06

60
25
6
1
0
4
0
0
14
110
13.00
16
126
51.00
28

72
29
8
1
0
5
0
0
16
131
22.00
37
168
51.00
38

2006-07

83
33
8
1
0
6
0
0
16
149
21.50
41
190
51.00
42

31
79

36
95

40
109

32
81

IUrban Consumption
____

Actual
2004~05

Consumption/requirement

in MkWh

Forecast
2007-08

200809

'
2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

97
37
9
1
0
6
0
0
20
170
21.00
45
215
51.00
48

112
42
10
2
0
7
0
0
22
193
20.50
50
243
51.00
54

129
47
11
2
0
7
0
0
24
219
20.00
55
274
51.00
61

148
52
12
2
0
7
0
0
26
247
19.50
60
307
51.00
69

169
58
12
2
0
8
0
0
29
276
19.00
65
344
51.00
77

45
125

51
143

56
162

63
184

69
209

Pattern of utilisation
2003 - 04

2004 - 05

53.25%
23.62%
0.00%
4.20'%
18.93%
100.00%

54.84%
22.28%
0.00%
3.87%
19.02%
100.00%

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

2010 - 11

2011 - 12 I

55.80%
22.14%
0.00%
3.79%
18.27%
100.00%

56.88%
21.87%
0.00'%
3.57%
17.69%
100.00%

57.82%
21.67%
0.00%
3.37%
17.14%
100.00%

58.80%
21.45%
0.00%
3.18%
16.56%
100.00%

59.74%
21.19%
0.00%
3.01%
16.06%
100.00%

60.60%!
20.94%
O.OO%i ,
2.85%1
15.61%'
100.00%

,Domestic
i Commercial
I Irrigation
'Industry
',Others

iTotal

tor

utilisati,on

55.09%
22.11%
0.00%
4.03%
18."16%
100.00%

2003-04

utilisation

for 2011-12

Others
15.61%

I
Irrigat ion
0.00%

Irrigation
0.00%

Domestic
53.25%

Commercial
20.94%

Domestic

60.60%
23.62%

L
ChapterlV

_
S:atev'"isc rorccast

(Short 1Clm)

246

-a;'itt-m
i4:ti~,>;#

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 4.35
lakshadweep
SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST
(UTILITIES)
Consumptlon Categones

Actual
2003-04
2004-05
(Base Year)
14
13
4
4
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
19
11.85
10.20
2
3
22
22
38.50
38.50
7
6

Domestic
'Commercial & Miscellaneous
Public Lighting
Public Water Works
Irrigation
LT Industries
HT Industries
! Railway Traction
'Non Industrial
:Total Consumption - MkWh
iT & D Losses ( % )
iT & D Losses - MkWh
Energy Requirement - MkWh
Load Factor ( % )
Peak Load (MW)
i

IRural Consumption
~_~an Cons_~::npti~

in MkWh

2005-06

2006-07

15
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
10.15
2
24
38.75
7

16
5
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
23
10.10
3
26
39.00
7

17
6
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
25
10.05
3
28
39.25
8

16
7
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
27
10.00
3
30
39.50
9

19
7
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
30
10.00
3
33
39.75
10

21
6
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
33
10.00
4
36
40.00
10

22
10
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
36
10.00
4
40
40.00

10
11

11
12

12
13

13
14

14

16
17

17

10
10

9
10

Consumption/requirement

Forecast
2007-08

----

2008-09

200910

2010-11

2011-12

15

11

19

-----

Pattern of utilisation
-

Domestic
Commercial
Irrigation
Industry
Others
Total

2003 - 04

2004 - 05

2005 - 06

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

2008 - 09

2009 - 10

69.83%
22.42%
0.00%
2.16%
5.59%
100.00%

70.59%
21.75%
0.00%
2.10%
5.57%
100.00%

69.36%
22.55%
0.00%
2.30%
5.80%
100.00%

68.68%
22.90%
0.00%
2.46%
5.96%
100.00%

67.52%
23.56%
0.00%
2.78%
6.13%
100.00%

66.22%
24.29%
0.00%
3.21%
6.28%,
100.00%

64.83%
24.99%
0.00%
3.71%
6.46%
100.00%

----

-----

utilisation

for 2003-04

-..ltilisat.i::m

2011 - i2

201011
63.39%
25.68%
0.00%
4.28%
6.64%
100.00%

61.84%
26.33%
0.00%
4.94%
6.89/.,
100.00%

-I
I

Others
Others
5.59%

Industry

6.89%

4.94%

Irrigation

Irrigation

0.00%

0.00%

Commercial
22.42%

Commercial
26.33%

Domestic
69.83%

Domestic

61.84%

---~

-----------------------------------------------~~
247

I'

CHAPTER- V
LONG T.ERM FORECAST

-asl'tt~_

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Powel

ourl1ey

Table 5.1

ALL INDIA AND REGIONAL SUMMARY OF LONG TERM FORECAST


(UTILITIES)
Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh

2021-22

Title

2011 -12

Sub Total (NR)

294841

411513

556768

Sub Total (WR)

294860

409805

550022

Sub Total (SR)

253443

380068

511659

Sub Total (ER)

111802

168942

258216

13329

21143

36997

968659

1392066

1914508

Sub Total (NER)


Total (All India)
Annual Peak Electric

.-

2016-17

Load in MW

2021-22

Title-

2011 -12

2016 -17

Sub Total (NR)

48137

66583

89913

Sub Total (WR)

47108

64349

84778

Sub Total (SA)

40367

60433

80485

Sub Total (ER)

19088

28401

42712

2537

3760

6180

218209

298253

Sub Total (NER)


Total (All India)

152746

251

~-

Chapter V

--

Long Term Forecast

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority~_,,~~_~1iJ[,


~'-'--'-"""-i>""

Table

State

STATE WISE LONG TERI,) FORECAST


Ele-ctri9a(En,irgy

AT POWER STATION

Requirement

.2011 -2012 ~016 -2017

5.2

(GWh)

2021-2022

BUS BARS (UTILITIES)

Peak Electric load (MW)

2011 -2012

2016 - 2017

2021-2022

36293
38417
9504
11202
60489
48916
79268
8445
2308

52762
54305
13136
15272
82572
67767
110665
11668
3367

73481
73838
17657
21283
107342
92377
150157
16191
4440

6092
6839
1611
2063
11000
8482
13947
1533
420

8729
9375
2194
2790
14441
11404
19623
2085
602

12069
12557
2907
3857
18352
15101
26834
2849
782

Sub Total (NRl

294841

411513

556768

48137

66583

89913

Goa
Guiarat
Chhattis arh
Madhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

4583
85445
21785
49338
125661
5042
3005

6880
119083
33076
70445
167227
8204
489C

9082
156842
45116
98987
219910
12243
7842

721
14374
3565
8462
21954
778
552

1083
19670
5375
11772
28348
1266
857

1429
25447
7279
16129
35944
1889
1324

Sub Total (WRl

294860

409805

550022

47108

64349

84778

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherrv

89032
53540
19230
87222
4419

132118
79996
26332
134755
6868

175590
107471
36134
182825
9639

14721
8826
3528
14224
683

21845
13092
4574
21976
1061

28216
17464
5916
29815
1489

253443

380068

511659

40367

60433

80485

19905
23408
27149
41020
320

32857
36274
39096
60228
487

58248
51741
63098
84499
629

3607
4296
4459
7407
83

5598
6604
6330
10743
120

9567
9129
10074
15072
150

111802

')0:';942

258216

19088

28401

427';2

Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Puniab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
ChandiQarh

Sub Total (SRl


Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Benaal
Sikkim
Sub Total (ERI
Assam
Manipur
Meahalava
Naaaland
Trioura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

7585
932
2101
698
1229
386
398

13053
1160
2778
1040
1761
557
595

24433
2337
4015
1505
3180
762
764

1443
203
428
152
282
116
115

2292
270
542
222
387
148
162

3985
445
751
319
666
189
196

13322

2: ~ 143

36997

2537

3760

6180

I
Sub Total (NERl

:
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweeo
T ota; Al.ndia

344
537
40 I
58
968C591
139"0661

______________
=~~~.~
..
Chapter \ : Long Tenll ForCf:dst

779
68
19145081

252

77
11
1527461

119
17
218209/

132
19
298253

~_.
_~E~~~~-

-as-raw

__,,,,'...:
__
;-i

17th Electric Power Surveil

Central Electricity Authority

Table 5.3
LONG n::RM FORECAST:

2i..:::CTRiCAL ENERGY' CONSUMPTION


(UTILITIESI

(GWh)

27207
28639
7617
8080
47427
36422
58908
6539
1827

41664
43199
10857
11779
66806
53847
86391
9619
2749

58759
59660
14770
16628
87921
77097
120975
13510
3681

222668

326910

453001

3744
65425
17092
36131
93737
4326
2579

5731
97731
26779
56870
133104
7146
4222

7711
129896
37653
81793
181635
10725
6791

Sub Total (WR)

223035

331583

456204

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
T ami! Nadu
Pondicherrv

72766
45241
16345
73703
3677

110028
67996
22408
114205
5783

148865
91887
30786
155401
8212

Sl!b T,.te; (SR)

211732

320420

435153

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West BenQal
Sikkim

14929
18364
20362
33626
240

26286
29564
31277
49387
383

49511
44239
53633
69289
519

Sub Total (ER)

87521

136896

217192

6106
606
1786
544
940
287
307

10834
1020
2389
837
1444
442
473

20524
1846
3453
1249
2687
610
626

10576

17438

30996

278
36

448
52

653
68

755847

1133749

1593266

Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Puniab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandigarh
Sub Total (NR
Goa
Guiarat
Chhattisaarh
M':!dhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Havelf
Daman & Diu

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Naaaland
Trioura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram
Sub Total (NERI
Andman & Nicobar
Lakshadweeo
Total (All India)

253

Charter V - Long -ferm Foreca~i

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Autl?OritYi,~~W._

Table 5.4
LONG TERM FORECAST:

TRANSMISSION

& DISTRIBUTION

1__

___

----

(%) (UTILITIES)

Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Puniab
Raiasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
IChandiqarh

LOSSES

25.03
25.45
19.85
27.87
21.59
25.54
25.68
22.56
20.85

21.03
20.45
17.35
22.87
19.09
20.54
21.93
17.56
18.35

20.03
19.20
16.35
21.87
18.09
16.54
19.43
16.56
17.10

20.56

18.64

I
:,

"

24.48
--------f--.

~.b-I.<>I!'I-.LNR)

1-:-- ~~.~~

r-----~~

Goa

~!.::~~

21.54
26.77

Chhattisqarh
Madhya_Pradesh
~?harB:shtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

25.40

~Ub Tolal (~

24.36

14.20
14.16

-----

-.---------

--_.:~

t---

16:7017.93
19.04
19.27
20.40
12.90
13.66
19.09

------

..

1I
j=J

17.37

17.40

12.40-1
_

13.6

-~7--i

-.-~.e--l

1522-.....j

16.72
15.00
14.90
15.25
15.80

14.50
14.80
15.00
14.80

16.46

15.69

14.96

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim

25.00
21.55
25.00
18.02
24.89

20.00
18.50
20.00
18.00
21.25

15.00
14.50
15.00
18.00
17.50

Sub Tolal (ER)

21.72

18.97

15.98

Assam
ManiDur
Mechalava
Naaaland
TriDura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

19.50
35.00
15.00
22.01
23.50
25.50
23.00

17.00
25.00
14.00
19.50
18.00
20.75
20.50

16.00
21.00
14.00
17.00
15.50
20.00
18.00

Sub Total (NER)

20.65

17.52

16.22

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep

19.00
9.99

16.50
10.00

14.00
10.00

21.97

18.56

16.81

__

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherrv
Sub Tolal

(SR)

Total (Allindial

Chapter V : Long Tl:rrl1 Forcl.:asl

1827 .
15.50
15.00
15.50
16.80

254

--I

_.
,
,5.10 -~_~
17.18
,
- I
16.54

-'

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Table
LONG TEAM FOAECAST
State
Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Pun' ab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
ChandiQarh

; ANNUAL

5.5

ELECTAIC

2011-12
68.00
64.12
67.34
62.00
62.77
65.83
64.88
62.87
62.81

LOAD FACTOR

2016 -17
69.00
66.12
68.34
62.50
65.27
67.83
64.38
63.87
63.81

(%) (UTILITIES)
2021-22
69.50
67.12
69.34
63.00
66.77
69.83
63.88
64.87

64.81

Sub Total (N Al

69.92

70.55

70.68

Goa
Guiarat
Chhattisaarh
Madhva Pradesh
Mahara..>htra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

72.53
6/.86
69.75
66.56
65.34
74.00
62.13

72.53
69.11
70.25
68.31
67.34
74.00
65.13

72.G~j---j

Sub Total (WAl

71.45

72.70

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
KeraJa
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherrv

69.04
69.25
62.22
70.00
73.92

69.04
69.75
65.72
70.00
73.92

7104
70.25
69.72
70.00
73.92

Sub Total (SA)

71.67

71.79

72.58

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West BenQaJ
5ikkim

63.00
62.20
69.50
63.22
44.01

67.00
62.70
70.50
64.00
46.50

69.50
64.70
71.50
64.00
47.75

Sub Total lEAl

66.86

67.90

68.67

Assam
Maniour
Meahalava
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mjzoram

60.00
52.40
56.00
52.42
49.75
37.94
39.47

65.00
57.50
58.50
53.40
52.00
43.00
41.97

70.00
60.00
61.00
53.90
54.50
46.00
44.47

Sub Total (NEAl

59.98

64.20

67.58

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweeo

51.00
40.01

51.5C'

39.99

52.00
40.00

Total (All India)

72.39

72.83

73.32

70.36 .__
70.75
70.0~
69.84
74.00
67.63

255

-~~-J
I
I

Chapter V : Long Term

hJr\.:'c<J<.;t

CHAPTER-VI
GROWTH RATES

17th Electric Power SUNC)

Central Electricity Authority

Table 6.1
GROWTH IN ELECTRICAL

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE


ENERGY REQUIREMENT AT POWER STATION
(UTILITIES)

BUS BARS(2003-tl4
Growth

States

2003-04
(Base Year)

'DeIhl
IHaryana
IHimachal Pradesh
IJammu & Kashmir

iPunjab

Rajasthan
IUttar Pradesh
IUttarnanchal
IChandigarh
I

'ISUb Total

(NR)

2004-05

3.93%
3.96%
12.44%
8.95%
7.64%
13.51%
2.79%
15.62%
18.33%
6_87"."

20Q5~06

8.64%
11.09%
7.66%

1.91%
9.33%
6.62%
9.90%
7.80%
7.62%

8,68".';'

TO 2011-12)

Rate (/0)

2006-072007082008-092009-102010-112011-12

7.92%
9.25%
41.33%
6.31%
9.36%
6.42%
8.84%
8.09%
8.75%
9.20"."

7.81%
9.16%
9.73%
6.60%
9.24%
6.60%
9.37%
8.18%
8.61%

8.34%
4.90%
6.79%
9.12%
7.52%
9.30%
8.27%
8.87%

8.50G~

8_52~~

9.07%

8.16'70!
8.89%;
8.29%,
7.29%'

9.27%
8.36%
8.93%

8.06%
8.94%
6.95%
7.13%
8.91%
7.64%
9.21%
8.44%
8.98%

8.4$"-;-

853~

8_55"

8.23%
9.00%
3.76%
6.97%
9.02%

7.58%

16.48%

9.81%,
8.03%
9.38%
6.64%
6.33%
12.23%
13.90%

9.29%
8.00%
9.37%
6.95%
6.40%
12.19%
13.83%

6,25%

5,24".;'

7.50%

7.25L>.,

7,33'-

IAndhra Pradesh
Karnalaka
Kerala
ITamil Nadu
i Pondicherry

9.30%
757%
0.35%
7.79%
9.58%

8.81%
6.37%
7.58%
5.02%
9.63%

8.61%
5.55%
6.42%
6.55%
9.58%

8.60%
5.72%
5.94%
7.79%
9.77%

9,03%
6.46%
5.77%
8.45%
10.50%

9.30%
7.64%
5.77%
8.76%
10.73%

9,58%
7.93%
6.18%
9.26%
10.90%

9.70%1
11.00%

ISub Total

7,58%

6,86%

7-05b

7.41:1"

8_02c

S.49,-

88]'0'"

B_OFe'"

3.50%
9.42%
3.59%
5.83%
10.87%

14.85%
12.42%
8.26%
4.63%
7.35%

16.60%
11.84%
9.40%
6.82%
5.94%

22.98%,
9.68%
10.15%
6.41%
6.90%

24.64'%
10.22%
10,65%
6.86%
7.66%

18.02%
10,84%
11.05%
6.52%
7.12'%

16.70%
11.65%
10.34%
6.67%
5.24%

15.15%
12.53%:

5.7110

8_08%

9,53,,,

9_96~o

10,83",

10.21" ~'

10,18<;"

lOAO'

20.42%
-6.89%
24.61%
*2.41%
-3.88%
-!:l.75%
-19.56%

1.36%
15.98%
4.02%
15.74%
6.83%
32.82%
24.48%

5.32%
8.23%
12.39%
14.40%
8.87%
11.02%
6.82%

8.05%
8.87%
8.59%
12.59%
9.08%
11.07%
7.15%

11.99%
9.58%
8.70%
9.94%
9.67%
11.13%
6.45%

14.85%
9.07%
8.61%
12.62%
9.82%
11.17%
4,90%

15.49"/0
9.38%
8.65%
8.03%
10,16%
11.21%
6.45%

16.17%
11.22%1

12.21'%

5,51%

7.80~';'

8,62%

1064':',

12.23~Q

12,51%

13.20~"i

-17.33%
3.58%

32.71%
6.73%

13.06%
7}i7%

13.41%
8,33%

13,10%
9.38%

12.51%
9.63%

12.17%
9.78%

11.93%
10.01%

6.79%

6.99%

6.11%

7_99%

8.29%

8.40%

8.56%

8.69'};"

13.44%
0.83%
9.79%
8.73%
5.43%
20.26%,

(WR)

9.22%
8.29%
9.32%
7.49%
6.53%
12.11%
13.73%

8.52%
9.04%!

10.96%
7.58%
9.81%
8.96%
6.22%
12.26%
13.99%

17.39%
5.72%
14.92%
8.21%
4.29%
15.58%
7.49%

IGoa
'IGujarat
Chhattisgarh
IMadhya Pradesh
! Maharashlra
:10. & N. Haveli
Daman & DIu

9.38%
8.16%
9.32%
7.24%
6.49%
12.15%
13.77%

8.81%
7.70%,
9.10%,

9.31%
8.42%
9.36/1
7.73%
6.57%1
12.07%;
13.71%

'ISub Total

7.48~

759'\,

7,"(Y

(SR)

9.37%;
8.25%
6.38%1

;Bihar
IJharkhand
,lOrissa
IWest Benga!
jSikkim
I

,SUb Total

(ER)

IAssam
i Manipur
i Meghalaya

,Nagaland
!Tripura
IArunachal

Pradesh

IMizoram
ISub Total

(NER)

IISLANDS
1Andman & Nicobar
ILakshadweefJ

10.78%i,
6.91%
6.31/J

7.97%i
8.05%
13.38%1
8.44%i
5.99%

ITotal (All India)

259

17th Electric Power Survey

Table 6.Z
GROWTH IN PEAK ELECTRIC

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISE


LOAD AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (2003-04 TO 2011-12)
(UTILITIES)
Growth Rate pac (%)

States

2003-04

2004-0S

200S-06

2006-07

2007~08

(Base Year)
6.11%
10.46%
14.2S%
-8.04%
7.47%
10,79%
6.96%
16.94%
17.33%

Sub Total (NR)


Goa
Gujarat
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
D, & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

Andhra Pradesh
Karoataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

9.16"/"
8.51%
12.13%
8.14%
6.72%

8.08%
9.42%
41.33%
8.58%
9.18%
8.34%
11.10%
8.42%
7.84%

7.97%
9.32%
9.73%
8.92%
9.06%
8.55%
11.68%
8.52%
7.91%

11.82%

6.73%

11.22%

14.37%
6.08%

7.62%
1.81%

10.96%
10.09%

11.48%
0.96%
5,02%

7.59%
6.43%
7.43%

11.55%
10.05%
8.27%

24.13%
17.37%

-0.91%
16.10"!c,

5.39%

8.52%,

7.88'%

8.04%
3,30%

2.52%
-0.23%

Sub Total (SA)

2009-10

2010-11

201112

Delhi
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandigarh

Sub Total (WR)

2008-09

8.80%
11.26%
7.66%
4.03%

8.49%
9.24%
4.90%

8.39%
9.17%
3.76%

9.16%
8.9S%
9.52%

9.40%
8.84%
9.62%

8.74%
9.72%

11.66%

11.69%

11.68%

8.61%
7.98%

8.70%
8.04%

8.79%
8.11%

10.00%

10.04%

10.02%

10.11%

10,67/.,'

9.81%

9.29%
10.65%

9.38%
10.88%

9.22%

12-41%
13.62%

8.43%
12.38%
13.53%

11.16%
8.04%
8.54%
12.34%
13.46%

11.14%
8.35%
8.68%
12.30%
13.40%

9.31%,'
11.300h
11.24%1

10.42%

10.19%

9.81%

10.01%

8.85%

8.85%
6.18%

9.28%
6.91%

9.55%
8.10%

10.62%
11.14%
7.71%

8.11%
9.11%

8.16%:
9.06%1

6.9S%
9.62%

8.29%;
9.84%
8.64%1

11.09%
11.17%
8.61%

9.83%;
11.62%'
8.87%1
8.17%

8.76%
12.26%
13,36%

8.87%1
8.85%
12.22%'
13.34"/;'

10.17<>./"

10.33%

9.83%

9.63%
8.72%

5.84%

5.26%
5.81%

2.78%
5.03%

7.40%
10.15%

5.17%
9.32%
11.09%

5.17%

6.68%
7.67%

5.33%
8.64%
10.35%

8.40%
5.58%

9.63%
11.33%

10.15%
11.49%

10.60%
11.60%

4,38%

3.00%

7.78%

8.37%

8.92%

9.40%

10.32%

10.51%'

24.37%
9.70%
11.58%
9.43%

5.17%

18.25%
5.21%
10.15%
7.08%
4.92%

24.79%
17.61%
10.96%
6,65%
4.69%

27.43%
10.75%
11.27%
7.10%
7.46%

20.68%
11.31%
11.54%
6.82,;,
:::'.56%

19.40%
12.05%
10.65%
6.95%
3.95%

17.91%
12.83,%1

6.04%

15.20%
11.88%
8.03%
4.67%

7.54%

7.90%

9.04%

12.41~';'

1'.93%

11.35%

11.35%

11.59i'l

0.15%
-25.62%
25.65%
-24.47%
-3.03%
26.00%
5.6'1%

3.92%
30.00%
4.90%
18.31%
2.50%
19.05%
29.09%

6.10%
14.53%
13.35%
13.10%
7.93%
8.00%
5.37%

8.89%
8.21%
9.53%
12.63%
8.47%
7.41%
5.72%

13.44%
8.28%
9.65%
8.85%
8.05%
5.05%

16.17%
8.28%
9.56%
11.97%
9,09%
7.45%
3.53%

16.97%
8.24%
9.62%
7.63%,
9.65%
8.91",-;'
5.09%

5.97%

6.52%

10.54'%

10.81"-;'

12.86%

13.28"'0

13.25S'o

5.78"10'
,

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
Sikkim
Sub Total (EA)
Assam
Manipur
,Meghalaya
'Nagaland
Tripora
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

9.35%

10.92"101
7.20%
5.06%:
,

17.60%1,
10.33%1
8.93%11
7.80%1
12.80%
5.45/;,1
4.64%1
I

Sub Total (NER)

13.95":""

ISLANDS

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep

-----

----

Total (All India)

Chapter VI : Growth Rates

-17.33%
3.61%

32.70%
6.05%

13.08%
6.85%

13.40%
7.61%

13.09%
8.68%

12.51%
8.90%

12,18%
9.12%
------

11.93%1;
9.99%

5.85%

6.15%

9.90%

10.02%

~O.05<;'o

1017%

10.48%

10,80%1

--

260

--

/[~]-!y~;?
Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 6.3

GROWTH

IN TOTAL

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE


ELECTRICAL
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(UTILITIES)

(2003-04

TO 2011-12)

States

2003-04
(Base Year)

loelhi

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Grmvth Rate (%)


2009-10
2010-11
,

2011-:~2

7.31%
6.90%
14.91%
9.70%
8.52%
13.63%
6.95%
18.81%
12.56%
9.04%

12.20%
11.42%
9.98%
10.93%
10.22%
12.39%
11.99%
10.69%
8.64%
11.43%

11.35%
11.20%
44.31%
10.97%
10.23%
11.88%
10.88%
10.91%
9.76%
11.96%

11.13%
11.07%
11.99%
11.07%
10.11%
11.80%
11.38%
10.94%
9.81%
11.08%

11.57%
10.95%
7.02%
11.09%
9.98%
11.69%
11.27%
10.96%
9.86%
10.8&'/"

11.37%
10.84%
5.82%
11.11%
9.87%
11.59%
11.21%
10.98%
9.92%
10.73%

11.11%
10.75%
9.03%
11.12%
9.76%
11.51%
11.11%
11.01%
9.97%
10.75%

11.12%
10.67%
10.35%
11.14%
9.65%
11.44<;'0
10.97%
11.03%
10.02%
10.72%

21.29%
-2.59%
15.19%
8.54%
7.01%
14.32%
9.21%

14.32%
2.28%
12.31%
10.59%
6.99%
20.26%
16.75%

11.81%
9.10%
11.66%
10.78%
7.77%
12.66%
14.26%

10.65%
9.54%
11.19%
11.03%
7.86%
12.63%
14.17%

10.12%
9.48%
11.16%
11.18%
7.91%
12.59%
14.09%

10.20%
9.63%
11.07%
11.32%
7.98%
12.54%
14.04%

10.04%
9.74%
11.05%
11.43%
8.00%
12.50%
14.00%

10.12%
9.86/~
11.06%
11.54%
8.02%
12.46%,
13.97%

'!SUb Total (WR)

4.88%

6.80%

9.07%

9.24%

9.27%

9.38%

9.45%

9.53%

IAndhra Pradesh
Karnataka
IKerala

10.37%
7.08%
2.90%
5.03%
1.46%

9.64%
7.01%
9.74%
6.04%
9.84%

9.43%
8.41%
8.52%
7.21%
9.84%

9.75%
8.51%
7.98%
8.44%
10.04%

9.95%
9.19%
7.78%
9.11%
10.77%

10.03%
9.65%
7.74%
9,41%
11.00%

10.16%
9.92%
8.12%
9.91%
11.16%

10.24%
10.21%
8,16%
10.36%
11.27%

6.93%

7.79%

8.36%

8.88%

9.33%

9.56%

9.88%

10.13%,

5.96%
10.86%
9.18%
727"'/0
19.17%

17.52%
14.72%
9.59%
6.51%
14.38%

19.25%
12.73%
14.97%
8.23%
12.42%

25.71%
9.81%
15.66%
7.62%
13.55%

27.35%
10.24%
15.92%
8.20%
13.57%

20,53%
10.78%
16,10%
7.90%
12.83%

19.13%
11,55%
15.14%
8.43%
8.72%

17.50%,
12.40%
15.39%
8.61%
10.25%

8.28%

9.95%

11.71%

11.77%

12.68%

12.08~;'

12.21%

12.40%

17.16%
1.26%
7.38%
-6.44%
-8.27%
-7.59%
-3.26%

11.74%
28.64%
14.77%
22.92%
11.31%
35.93%
29.74%

14.06%
18.54%
13.78%
20.09%
13.25%
13.56%
14.06%

14.95%
18.34%
9.98%
17.91%
13.48%
13.56%
13.95%

15.72%
18.34%
9.98%
14.82%
13.69%
13.56%
12.81%

16.33%
17.15%
9.97%
17.65%
13.84%
13.55%
10.81%

16.96%
16.92%
9.97%
12.51%
13.98%
13.55%
7.87%

17.63%
16.61%
9.25%
12.34%
17.23%
10.67%
7.38%

8.85%

14.73%

14.42%

14.02%

14.31%

14.72'%

14.76%

15.25%

-2.87%
5.53%

18.98%
6.80%

13.78%
7.62%

14.13%
8.38%

13.82%
9.45%

13,22%
9.62%

12.87%
9.78%

10.02%

6.99%

8.78%

10.01%

9.99%

10.18%

10.19%

'10.33%

10.45%;

IHaryana
,Himachal

Pradesh

IJammu & Kashmir


Punjab
! Rajasthan
IUttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
'IChandigarh
ISub Total (NR)
IGoa
fGujarat
IChhattisgarh
i Madhya

Pradesh

i Maharashtra

10.

& N. Haveli
,,Daman & Diu

iTamil Nadu
Pondicherry

'iSub Total (SR)


'!Bihar
IJharkhand
'Orissa
iWest Bengal
Sikkim
I

!Sub Total (EH)


!Assam
jManipur
Meghalaya
I Nagaland
:Tripura
i Arurlachal
1Miz0ram

Pradesh

Sub Total (NERl


ISLANDS
Andman & Nicobar
ILakshadweep

j~Total (All India)

261

12.63"/:0

Ci'!;lptc-r V J . Growth Rate"

17th Electric Power Survey

Central

Electricity

AuthOrity

);."~,

,.,;;?

_"o., __

Table 6.4
LONG TERM FORECAST: COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (%) OF ELECTRICAL
ENERGY REQUIREMENT AND PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD (UTILITIES)
State

Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir

Puniab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandiaarh

Sub TotalfNR

ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT


12TH PLAN
13TH PLAN
(2017-22)
(2012-17)
7.77
6.85
7.17
6.34
6.69
6.10
6.39
6.86
6.42
5.39
6.74
6.39
6.90
6.29
6.68
6.77
7.84
5.69

PEAK ELECTRIC LAOD


12TH PLAN
13TH PLAN
(2012-17)
(2017-22)
7.46
6.69
6.51
6.02
6.37
5.79
6.22
6.69
5.59
4.91
6.10
5.78
7.07
6.46
6.34
6.44
7.50
5.36

6.90

6.23

6.70

6.19

Madhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
D. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

8.46
6.86
8.71
7.38
5.88
10.23
10.23

5.71
5.66
6.40
7.04
5.63
8.34
9.91

8.46
6.47
8.56
6.83
5.25
10.23
9.20

5.71
5.28
6.25
6.50
4.86
8.34
9.08

Sub Total (WRI

6.81

6.06

6.44

5.67

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
T ami! Nadu
Pondicherrv

8.21
8.36
6.49
9.09
9.22

5.85
6.08
6.53
6.29
7.01

8.21
8.21
5.33
9.09
9.22

5.25
5.93
5.28
6.29
7.01

Sub TotalISR\

8.44

6.13

8.40

5.90

10.54
9.16
7.57
7.98
8.76

12.13
7.36
10.05
7.01
5.27

9.19
8.98
7.26
7.72
7.57

11.31
6.69
9.74
7.01
4.71

8.61

8.86

8.27

8.50

11.47
7.85
5.74
8.30
7.46
7.65
8.34

13.36
11.44
7.65
7.68
12.55
6.46
5.13

9.70
5.87
4.82
7.90
6.51
4.99
7.01

11.69
10.49
6.75
7.47
11.50
5.04
3.92

Sub Total (NERI

9.67

11.84

8.19

10.46

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweep

9.32
7.71
7.52

7.75
3.03
6.58

9.11
7.72
7.39

2.05
3.02
6.45

Gaa
Guiarat

Chhattisoam

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Benaal
Sikkim

Sub TatalIER\
Assam
Maniour

Meohalava
Naaaland
Trioura
Arunachal
Mizoram

Pradesh

TolalfAlltndia)

262

,~~,:

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electric;ty Authority

.. 'F'
Table 6.5
LONG TERM FORECAST:
('Yo) OF ELECTRICAL
-

State
Delhi
Harvana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Puniab
Ralasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarnanchal
Chandiaarh

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES


ENERGY CONSUMPTION (UTILITIES)
-

12TH PLAN
(2012-17)
8.90
8.57
7.34
7.83
7.09
8.13
7.96
8.02
8.51

-13TH PLAN(2017-22)
7.12
6.67
6.35
7.14
5.65
7.44
6.97
7.03
6.01

7.98

6.74

8.89
8.36
9.39
9.50
7.26
10.56
10.36

6.12
5.86
7.05
7.54
6.41
8.46
9.97

Sub TotaiIWR)

8.25

6.59

Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Pondicherry

8.62
8.49
6.51
9.15
9.48

6.23
6.21
6.56
6.35
7.27

Sub Total ISR\

8.64

6.31

11.98
9.99
8.96
7.99
9.79

13.50
8.39
11.39
7.01
6.25

9.36

9.67

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram

12.15
10.98
5.99
8.99
8.96
8.99
9.03

13.63
12.60
7.65
8.34
13.23
6.66
5.78

Sub Total (NERI

10.52

12.19

Andman & Nicobar


Lakshadweeo

9.99
7.71

7.83
5.22

Total (All India)

8.45

7.04

Sub TotalINR)
Goa
Gularat
Chhaltisoarh
Madhva Pradesh
Maharashtra
O. & N. Haveli
Daman & Diu

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Benaal
Slkklm
Sub Total (ERI

263

Chelplel VI . Growth Rates

ANNEXURES

tsh

,A~L_;'2';

17th Electric Power Survey

Centra! Electricity Authority

~>
ANNEXURE-I

COpy
GOVERNMENT
OF INDIA
CENTRAL ELECTRICITY
AUTHORITY
MINISTRY OF POWER
SEW A BRA WAN, R.K.PURAM
NEW DELHI-Il0066
No.541 (37)/Secy-2003/330

Dated 24"' Nov., 2003


OFFICE

ORDER

Periodic electric power survey of the country is conducted to forecast


State/Union Territory wise, Region wise & All India Electricity demand on short, medium &
long term as a foremost planning exercise to base subsequent planning activities. The latest in
the series i.e. the 16"' electric power survey was commenced in March, 21998. The 17'" EPS
has become due. Therefore, The Central Electricity Authority hereby sets up the 17'" Electric
Power Survey-Committee with the following composition:Member (Planning)
Central Electricity Authority
New Delhi

Chairman

Adviser (Energy)
Planning Commission
New Delhi

Member

Adviser (Perspective Planning)


Planning Commission
New Delhi

Member

ChairmenlManaging DirectorslHeads
Of all State Electricity BoardslTransmission
CorporationslElectricity
Departments

Member

Joint Secretary (PP&EA)


Ministry of Power
New Delhi

Member

Joint Secretary (HI)


Deptt. of Heavy Industry,
Ministry of Heavy Industries &
Public Enterprises,
New Delhi.

Member

Joint Secretary(Coal)
Ministry of Coal,
New Delhi.

Member

---------------------------~,~~~-----------267

Anncxure:';

17th Electric Power Survey

Commissioner (GR&MI)
Ministry of Water Resources
New Delhi.

Member

Director General,
National Cooncil of Applied
Economic Research NCAER),
Ncw Delhi.

Member

Director
Central Statistical Organization,
New Delhi.

Member

Director General
Indian Statistical Institute
Kolkata

Member

Chainnan & Managing Director,


Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd.,
New Delhi,

Member

Additional Member (Electrical)


Indian Railways,
New Delhi,

Member

Director General
TERI - The Energy & Resources Institute,
New Delhi.

Member

Chief Engincer (DMLF)


Central Electricity Authority
New Delhi.

Member-Secretary

2. The Terms of Reference of the Committee will be: (i)


(ii)

To forecast year wise electricity demand for


Region and All India in detail up-to the end of
To project the perspective electricity demand
and 13'h Five Year Plans i.e. year 2016-17 and

each State, Union Territory,


II'h Plan i.e. year 2011-12

for the tenninal years of 12'"


2021-22.

3. The Committee will submit its report within a period of 24 months from the date of
issue of this Order.

SdI(GURDIAL SINGH)
SECRETARY,CEA
To: As per list.

Anl1cxures

268

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

i~~i

'!~~/
ANNEXURE-II
COpy
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF POWER
CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY
OFFICE OF MEMBER (PLANNING)
2ND FLOOR, SEW A BOAWAN, R.K.PURAM
NEW DELHI-II0066
No.CENPLG/LFI21l7

Dated 31" March, 2005

EPS/439-48

Subject: Constitution of an Expert Committee in connection with the 1ill


Electric Power Survey of India-Econometric I\1ethodology.

I.
An Expert Cormniltce having following composition is herehy constituted under the
aegis of 17th Electric Power Survey Committee for forecasting electricity demand of the
country using econometric methodology in accordance with provisions of para 3.3 of the
National Electricity Policy:
1. Shri Surya P.Sethi, Advisor {Encrgy),Planning
Commission, Delhi
2. Sh.G.S.N.Morty, Joint Director, Central
Statistical Organization, Delhi

Member

3. Sh.K.Ramanathan, Distinguished Fellow, TERI


The Energy and Resource Institute, Delhi

Member

4.

Prof. Sebasthm Morris, Indian Institute of


Management (Ahmedahad)

Mcmber

5.

Prof. T.eA. Anand, Deptt. of Economics,


Delhi School of Economics

o.

Prof. Amp Mitra, Institute of Economic G.owth,


Delhi

Member

7.

Dr. T. Adi Bhavani, Institute of Economic


Growth, De:hi

Member

8.

Dr. Sanjib Pohit, Sr.Fellow, Natiunal Council


of Applied Economic Research, Delhi

Member

9. Sh. Raghuraman, Sr.Advisor


of Indian Industrie .., Delhi

Confederation

269

Member

Memher

Antll:XUr...

17th Electric Power Swvey

Central Electricity Authority{,~,~W,."


:"""'-?'_~~<,1>';'

II.

10.

Dr.Anand Mitra, Secretary-General, Federation of


Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industries
(FICC!), Delhi

Member

I I.

Chief Engineer, DMLF Division, Central


Electricity Authority, Delhi

Member-Secretary

The terms of reference of the Expert Committee will be:


1.

To forecast year wise electricity demand of the country up-to 2021-22 usiog
econometric
methodology
and considering demand-influencing
factors for
which economic indicators shall be available.
Projected Growth Rates of
different sectors of economy will be taken into account in this exercise.

ii.

The Expert Committee shall submit its Report within a period of six months.

Sd/(V.S.VERMA)
MEMBER(PLANNING),CEA
&
CHAIRMAN OF 17m ELECTRIC POWER
SURVEY COMMITTEE
Forwarded

with a copy of the National Electricity

Policy to:

I. Chairman of the Expert Committee-Sh.Surya P.Sethi, Advisor (Energy)


Plaoning Commissioo, New Delhi
2. All Members of the Expert Committee:
Sh.G.S.N. Murty, Joint Director, Central Statistical Organization, Delhi
Sh.K.Ramanathao, Distinguished Fellow,TERI-The Eoergy and Resource Institute, DelhI
Prof. Sebastian Morris, Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad)
Prof. T.C.A.Anand, Deptl. of Economics, Delhi School of Economics
Prof. Amp Mitra, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi
Dr. T. Adi Bhavani, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi
Dr. Sanjib Pohit, Sr.Fellow, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi
Sh. Raghuraman, Sr. Advisor, Confederation of Indian Industries, Delhi
Dr.Anand Mitra, Secretary-General, Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and
Industries (F1CCI), Delhi.
3. All Members of the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee
(As per enclosed list) (without enclosures).

Anncxures

270

~::'_~t

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

ANNEXURE-III
GROWTH OF SELF CONSUMPTION (GWh) OF ELECTRICITY OUT OF CAPTIVE GENERATION

ST ATElUTI

2003-0412004-05/2005-0612006-071

Haryana

786
54
0
621

Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttaranchal
Chandigarh
Delhi
Sub- Total(NR)

Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgam
Maharashtra

155
0
12

Goo
Daman & Diu
o & N Haveli
Sub- Tot.I(WR)

Andhra Pradesh
Kamataka
Kerala
Tami! Nadu
Pondicherry
Lakshadweep
Sub-Tot.I(SR)

Bihar
Jharkhand
Orissa
West Bengal
A & N Islands
Sikkim
Sub-Tot.I(ER)

2845
6437
369
3
2
111171
10540
2151
3410
4486

Assam
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
ArunCl.chalPradesh

207631
4526
3131
429
3941
49
0
120761
178
3327
7011
1922
0
0
124381
1013
0
0
0
0
0

Sub-Tot.I(NER)

0
10131

Total (All India)

573971

Mizoram

806
55
0
679
3214
7209
443
3
2
124111
12226
2156
3665
5248
176
0
13
234871
5386
3475
472
4414
59
0
138061
231
3493
7432
2153
0
0
133091
1104
0
0
0
0
0
0
11041
64117\

827
57
0
741
3616
8038
525
3
2
138081
14060
2161
3956
6125
203
0
14
265211
630'::
3823
517
4899
69
0
156101
294
3668
7840
2400
0
0
142021
1198

0
0
151121
1294

0
0
0
0
0
0
11981
713401

2007-0812008-0912009-1012010-11\2011-12

849
58
0
807
4050
8922
614
3
2
153051
16028
2166
4295
7043
230
0
15
297771
7247
4167
563
5389
80
0
174471
364
3851
8232
2664

0
0
0
0
0
0
12941
789361

271

873
59
0
877
4516
9859
709
3
2
168991
18112
2171
4681
8030
257

898
61
0
952
4968
10845
809
3
2
185371
20285
2176
5103
9073
285

0
16
332671
8169
4500
611
5874
92
0
192671
441
4044

0
17
369401
9090
4815
660
6344
103

8603
2944
0
0
160321
1391
0
0
0
0
0
0
13911
868551

0
210121
520
4246
8947
3238
0
0
169521
1488
0
0
0
0
0
0
14881
949291

983
66
0
1202
6612
14044
1106
3
2
24018
26997
2191
6608
12408
370
0
21
48595
11131

0
226231
598
4458
9260
3546
0
0
178631
1585
0
0
0
0
0

954
64
0
1114
6038
12944
1010
3
2
221291
24768
2186
6063
11280
342
0
19
446591
10601
5360
759
7196
122
0
240381
670
4681
9538
3865
0
0
187551
1680
0
0
0
0
0

0
15851
1031221

0
16801
1112601

0
1773
119200

925
62
0
1031
5489
11875
910
3
2
202971
22517
2181
5562
10162
314
0
16
407541
9908
5104
710
6789
113

5574
809
7556
129
0
25199
730
4915
9776
4194
0
0
19616
1773
0
0
0
0
0

Anncxures

/:
17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority,',~"'~."!J< '

ANNEXURE-IV
f--

DVe

..

(WEST

BENGAL

PORTION)
ESTIMATED

Category
HT Industries - 1 MW & above (Direct)
Railway Traction (Direct)
Point Loads of WBSEB (IV + OV)
Point Loads of DPSCO
Point Loads of CESC
Additional Prosoective Load
Total ConsumPtion
(GWhl

T&
IT &

D
D

Loss (%)
Loss - GWh

Total EnerQV Requirement

(GWhl

Load Factor ('Yo)

Peak Load (MW)

04-05
1458.30
156.30
614.23
595.00
0.00
0.00
2823.83

05-06
1889.30
165.40
637.39
613.00
0.00
0.00
3305.09

06-07
2260.20
175.00
661.86
631.00
0.00
0.00
3728.06

07-08
2485.40
185.20
687.69
650.00
0.00
0.00
4008.29

08-09
2720.20
195.90
714.76
669.00
0.00
0.00
4299.86

09-10
2948.60
207.40
743.38
688.00
0.00
0.00
4587.38

10-11
3174.60
219.40
773.07
707.00
0.00
0.00
4874.07

11-12
3364.70
232.24
804.43
728.00
0.00
0.00
5129.37

3.70
108.50

3.70
126.99

3.70
143.24

3.70
154.00

3.70
165.21

3.70
176.25

3.70
187.27

3.70
197.08

2932.33

3432.08

3871.30

4162.29

4465.07

4763.63

5061.34

5326.45

65.00
514.99

65.00
602.75

65.00
579.89

65.00
731.00

65.00
784.17

65.00
836.61

65.00
888.89

65.00
935.45

DVe

(JHARKHAND

PORTION)

~
i

ESTIMATED
Cateaorv

Domestic (Direct)
HT Industries - 1 MW & above (Direct)
Railwav Traction (Direct)
Point Loads (IV + OV)
Additional Prospective Load

Total Consumption(GWh)
T&

D Loss (%)
T&DLoss-GWh
Total Enerav

Reaulrement

(GWh

Load Factor 1%)

Peak Load tMWl

04-05

05-06

07-08

08-09

09-10

43.78
3336.3
362.6
2016.4
143.5
5902.58

50.6
3481.95
372.1
2132.9
903
6940.55

53
3631.5
332.1
22ti6.9
1476.3
7799.8

55.8
3781.65
392.7
2387.4
1763.3
8380.85

586
3930.92
403.9
2526.7
2049.6
8969.72

61.5
4076.38
416
2673
2336.6
9563.48

3.7
226.79

3.7
266.67

3.7
299.68

3.7
322.01

3.7
344.63

3.7
367.44

6129.37

7207.22

8099.48

8702.86

9314.35

9930.92

65
1076.46

65
1265.76

65
1422.46

65
1528.43

65
1635.82

65
1744.1

Dve

06-0"7

10-11

11-12

64.6
67.8
4224.26
4399.14
428.9
442.5
2828.9
2994
2622.9
2866.5
10169.6 10769.94
3.7
390.73

3.7
413.8

10560.3 11183.74
65
1854.63

65
1964.13

(TOTAL)
ESTIMATED

Cateaory
Total Consumption (GWh)
T & D Loss (%)
T & 0 Loss GWh
Total Energy

RequirementCGWh)

Load Factor (%)

Peak Load (MW)

i\nnexurcs

04-05
8726.41
3.70
335.29

05-06

10245.64
3.70
31;3.66

06-07

07-08

08-09

11527.86

12389.14

13269.58

3.70
442.92

3.70
476.01

3.70
509.84

09-10

I 10-11

I 11-12

14150.86 15043.63 15899.31


3.70
543.69

3.70
578.00

3.70
610.88

9061.70

10639.30

11970.78

12365.15

13779.42

14694.55 15621.63

16510.19

65.00
1591.45

65.00
1868.51

65.00
2102.35

65.00
2259.43

65.00
2419.99

65.GO
65.00
2580.71 2743.52

65.00
2899.58

272

A~;'~!'):centra'

Electricity

17th Electric

Authority

Power

Survey

,;'.'

ANNEXURE-V

Long-Run Electricity Demand Forecast Using Econometric Model


Factors Affecting Electricity Demand and Data Sources
In general, electricity demand is mainly determined by two important factors, tariff and
GDP. This is a general accepted definition of demand function. In a modem economy,
electricity is a necessary input in the production process and people's daily activitics and is
not an ordinary good. Electricity is bought for the end-use scrvice it provides. As a rcsult, a
number of important and sometimes countervailing factors change the pattern of electricity
demand (Gellings ]996). Therefore, factors affecting economic activities and consumption
patterns will have an important impact on electricity consumption.
There could be many other factors that require proper attention in determining the dcmand
for electricity in India. An important one, for example, is the weather. Hot days mean that
more electricity will be used for cooling and lighting. In summer, longer days mean that
more electricity is consumed. Electricity demand also varies according to the time of day.
Therefore, the demand for electricity also depends on weather changes; peak demands
occur during hot weather and heat waves. However, it is difficult to incorporate annual
weather changes in assessing electricity demand (If the forecasting were in days, weeks,
months or quarters, it would be important to have the weather factor). On average, the
weather factor is not expected to have a major impact on annual electricity consumption.
Technological change and consumer preferences will affect electricity demand growth both
negatively and positively and evolution of the competitive power market in India could also
affect electricity demand if competition could lead to lower electricity tariffs.
Environmental policies could lead to higher supply cost and have a negative impact on
electricity demand. However, all these factors are not expected to have a significant impact
on electricity consumption at the current stage of economic development in India. Weatherrelated variables, such as temperature, humidity, precipitation and eloud cover are usually
incorporated into the demand forecasting models used by utility companies. The ability to
predict the weather can help the scheduling of generation. Also in liberalized electricity
markets, because of its impact on electricity demand, the weather can affect the price or
electricity. If the forecasting were in days, weeks, months, or quarters, it would be
important to have the weather factor. Further the growth rates of electricity demand also
vary for different consumer categories and for different regions. For a particular State or
power grid, electricity demand forecast could be made for the short term and the long term
on a sector basis.

273

AllJ:Cxures

17th Electric Power Survey

CentralElectr;cdyAuthontYA1~

!
The focus of this paper is to develop a forecasting model that could be used for analyzing
relationships between electricity consumption and macroeconomic variables. To achieve
this, an aggregate approach using macroeconomic data at the national and sector level is
considered suitable.
A. Main Factors Determining

Electricity Demand

The following four factors have been identified for their significant contribution to longterm electricity demand in India.
I. Per Capita Gross Domestic Product
Per Capita GDP is considered to be the most important determinant for electricity
consumption in the literature. Economic growth and its impact on living standards is the
main driving force of electricity consumption growth. Empirical studies show that there
should be a significant and stable positive correlation between per capita GDP and
electricity consumption.
2. Electricity Prices
As with income effects, electricity price is another important factor affecting electricity
demand. However, electricity tariffs in India have been set administratively. Setting
electricity tariff in India is a complicated and sensitive sector issue due to the presence of
many stakeholders. Despite this, electricity tariffs are an important variable in the
electricity demand function because of its impact on electricity consumption. Electricity
tariffs in the India are set separately in each state and tariff adjustments require extended
periods of evaluation and consensus making, further complicated.
3. Structural Changes in the Economy
Market refonns have become an important aspect of macroeconomic policy in India. There
is high correlation between the growth of electricity demand and the growth of service
sector in India. Ongoing structural changes in the economy toward service-and-exportoriented sectors will have had a major impact on the electricity demand growth. Thus, the
variable (SS), which is the total service share in GDP, is included to reflect the structure
change occurring in India.
4. Efficiency Improvement
Annual per capita energy consumption in India is relatively low of the world average. The
energy intensity rate is still quite high. Energy intensity declined during the] 990s, when
GDP grew by more than 6 per cent per year and energy consumption grew at 2.3 per cent
per yea,. As a result, the energy intensity index (Expressed as unit of energy consumed per
unit of GDP in 1980-81 qonstant prices, with the index set at 100 for 1980-81) dropped
from 15 j in 1994-95 to ] 22 in 2001-02. These indicate that energy conservation measures
have produced significant positive results. Therefore, efficiency improvement, that is,
value-added produced by economy divided by electricity consumed by the economy, is

AnnCXUT',::S

274

,,
ii'L

,ttf

,
17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricily Authorily

considered to be another important variable that determines electricity consumption. As


new technologies and energy conservation measures are introduced in the economy, this
ratio is expected to have a positive relationship with electricity demand.
B. Till' Model and Data
Based on the above discussion, a long-term electricity demand function for India could bc
established as:
Q =j(PCGDP,

P, SS, INTEN)

(I)

Where Q is electricity demand, P is price, PCGDP IS per capita GDP, SS represents


structural changes, and INTEN is electricity intensity.
The data for tbis study are taken from two sources. The electricity consumption data is
provided by the Central Electricity Authority, the data on elcctricity prices is taken from
the Performance Review of State Electricity Boards published by tbe Planning Commission
and the statistics of macroeconomic variables is collected from the Rescrve Bank of India's
website.

The Econometric Analysis and Empirical Results


Thc existence of long-term equilibrium (stationary) relationship aI;lOng cconomic variables
is referred to in the literature as co-integration. The two common tests for co-integration arc
the procedure of Engle and Granger (1987) and the procedure of Johansen and Juselius
(Johansen and Juselius 1990, Johansen ]995). The two-stcp procedure of Engle and
Granger performs the tests in a uni-variate setup. Johansen and Juselius examine the
question of co-integration and provide not only an estimation methodology but also explicit
procedures for testing for the number of co-integration vectors as welJ as for restrictions
suggested by economic theory in a multivariate setting. The Johansen technique is fast
becoming an essential tool.
A. Unit Root Tests
To examine the time series properties of the data, we conduct the augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests on the stationarity of the levels and the first
differences of the variables. The results of two tests are reported in Tables I. As shown by
the ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, we do not reject the nuB bypothesis that the level of
each series is non-stationary. As a further check, we run the tests OJ! all variables in their
first-differences. Both ADF and Phillips-Perron t~sl results suggest that all variables arc
first-difference stationary, that is I( I). Consequently, they satisfy the nece:isary condition of
constructing a co-integration system.

275

Annexurcs

17th Electric Power Swvey

CentralElectricityAuthOrity!~11

;,'

",:-':,\.:~" \r~if"~i"\\hether

,,',

!; .p'

,!!,'!'

every ,:,,'xplalning variable discussed abO\'l h~\s ;1.


variahle (electricity consumption)
and coefficients ('slim;,;!
fiL< 1;\, the {)l ,Smdhucl
to estimate the EI,iu:;!if;r (l

'/'!',",

-.,

!;-,
1

f:

+{,l C)()( (ARl

;<i(jii

VClj'i;:i,hIC,

dhe
turai

i~~
per capita GDP. S,(- represents
IXl rcprcsenls
natural logarithm,

we obl.iln:

:--dijtJ_y,!_!dP) + O.00724.INTEN+O.OO 14.SS

, " " ~

(2,,08)'"

t X.l)) I

PCGDP

l(,~,:..;it'J
''..-

}J!'iCC,

\~'icant

1,0.13)

(28.32)*

(1.6\)

J)
(5)
,1\

,i'l'

"~,,i""

'C'," _''';Siil~~

'i'

h...;"~.'Gr:';~i.~11~{

."

!"

i~

F=61395

;:,"ocilicient holds the sign expected when the


prdolcrn in the OL5 residuals. As mentioned
'I j' >n;",,!,
,~"., n ' !;,i' OLS rC2fcssion Equation (5) would display the
...
-' 1 "Ij;i r(;(
Ill, ;~i:
i(!
. ,[lieS, l'hw:,
lhv: nexl stage IlLllural1y invoiycs testing
tr Cr.1;!'TI';":, 01'c.; illtcgr:Jlmg >. Ii:; :)n~-)h (loilg-lcrm cquilibriutn relatioI1ship:L
I'~

1;';':'

~L.;'

02. P' = O()99 DW=2.75.

Johansen (\; integration

\q\,~'

Test

lIildti:;iriatc syste111 the' JOi:;'(il:~'J,lu~diu:~, l1Jl~lhodof testing ror co-integralion


between
,:1 : ;' \",n:lble~ i~.;preicrre,:,l O\t:i- l!1; Engle-Cinmger two sit:p procedure. '~ic therefore use
,l;: .1\\:,;;
,':u:--;c!ius J1]cth~,:,_
:,CSl I'P dettTI11ine the {jL:l1t--:~rof co-integrating
vectors
\ll OLH model. The Schwau i,'d~;rH':<;:.iuncriterion is used 10 detcnnine the appj'opriatc lag
~:( ; L~>~
\/.!~R.Th' orhn~~~
nki' equals 3: which is detennincd
hy nJe infc~rjnation
cri;'ci,-',';; ;, results using dlc j,'.h;ql:-',t'Ji procedure are reported in Table 2.
"j

Annexurcs

276

~.

'\.
!"Central

17th Electric Power Survey

Electricity Authority

Table 2 : Johansen Cointegration Test

! J':igenvaJue

i-

...--.-.

Likelihood
Ratio

5 Per cent
Critical Value

I'0 .()75i7=1146.4487

.~.~-_._.

1 Per cent
Critical Value
-'-'~-'-

Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)

~~_._~._

76.07
None**
68.52
154.46
At most] ** ..___ . ~7.2]
1-o ,9]:m~J?9.8534
10 .778035
36.0474]
29.68
35.65
At most 2 **
I.~
8.953] 9]
]5.41
20.04
At most 3
r-Q .362031
.046804
0.862823
3.76
6.65
At most 4
-~~
(**)d."'I1otes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%( 1%) significance level
L.~"tcstlrldicatesl
cointegrating-".quation(s) at 5% si'!ificance leve_' '-'~-T--------

As rcportcd in Table 2, Johansen co-integration test indicates that there exists a


cDnsistently co-integrating vector or long-run equilibrium relation among variables
during the sample period of study. The coefficient estimates of the co-integration vector
arc given by:
B' = (l.00, -1.356,

o.on,

-0.00824, -0.(1)

The,,,' arc normalized for Ln(Q), Ln(PCGOP), Ln(P), INTEN and SS. Thc equation
presented as
LQ

IS

1.40 Ln(PCGOP) - O.OnLn(P) + (J.(J0824INTEN + (J.(JISS (6)

Equation (6) indicatcs the longterm equilihrium relation among the variahles. Thc results
indicatc that there exists a stahle long-nrn relationship among thc variahles in the modcl
over the sample period. The results indicate that the per capita GOP elasticity is cstimated
at 1.4 for the sample period. This is consistent with eff(Jrts on energy requirement and
more rapid structural changes in the economy. Further, hoth efficicncy and structural
change variahles contribute more to electricity demand. Electricity price movements
capture somc prices effects on electricity demand.
Forecasting at 4ggrq;ate Level
Using co-integration Eqt:ation given in para 5. 1.3 of Chapter - I of this report, aggregate
electricity demand can be projected lIplO 2021-2022. The first problem of this procedure
is to project the trend;: of the variables in the right-hand side in Equations. PCGOP
growth is assumed to grow at the ratc of 6, 7 and 7.5 percent per year. As for data J(lr
other variables time series technique is used to predict for eiectricity intensity on the basis
of last seven years, electricity prices arc assumed to grow at the rate of two pcrcent per

277

Annexures

17th Electric Power Survey

year at constant prices. Finally, electricity consumption is forecasted using the long-term
Equations. The forecasting results are provided in Table V-A. We have made in total
twelve scenarios for electricity forecasting. In all these scenarios it has been assumed that
the share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55 percent.
These scenarios are:
1. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
2. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
3. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
4. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
5. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
6. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.
7. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent per year, electticity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
8. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
9. PCGDP grow at 7.5 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02
and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
10. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
II. PCGDP grow at 7 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
12. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per year
and the electrieity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.
The forecasting results arc presented in Table V-A.
Forecasting at Sectoral Level
For the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDP
could be collected only since 1992-93. Therefore, in sectoral analysis, OLS rather than
co-integration techniques could be used for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it has
been assumed that the sectoral consumption is the function of sectoral GDP (Seetoral
GDP from manufacturing sector is taken as a proxy for the GDP of industrial sector and
sectoral GOP from finance, insurance, real estate and business is taken as a proxy for the
GDP of commercial sector, and for the income of domestie sector the aggregate GDP is
considered as the proxy of income in that sector) and tariff rate in that sector. Moreover,
trend analysis has been used for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railways,

Annexurcs

278

/1-__
."

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

public lighting and water sectors. Table V-B presents the sectoral estimates of income
and price elasticties. In each of the major sectors, the consumption of electricity income
is statistically significant and elastic but the price elasticity of consumption is found to
be statistically insignificant for most of the sectors and even in some sectors it has been
observed that the signs of price elasticity are not as expeeted. Similar kind of behaviour
is ohserved at the aggregate level even using the co-integration technique for
forecasting. Here it should be noted that the estimation is very poor for the eommereial
sector as the co-efficient of none of the independent variables is statistically significant
and even the overall fit is very poor. Therefore, the forecasting results for commercial
sector are erroneous.
Tahle V-C presents the OLS estimates for public lighting, railways and water sectors.
The Tables V-O to V-H presents the sectoral forecasting results. Thc sectoral forecasting
results are based on the following assumption or for forecasting these scenanos are
generated.
f)oftlestic Sector

I. GOP grows at the rate of 8 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent per year.

2. GOP grows at the rate of 9 per eent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent per year.
3 GOP grows at the rate of 8 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level of 200102.

4. GOP grows at the rate of 9 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level of 200102.
"-lgricliiture Sector

5. Sectoral GOP
per year.
6. Sectoral GDP
per year.
7. Scctorai GOP
of 2001-02.
8. Sectoral GOP
of 2001-02.

grows at the rate of 3 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent
grows at the rate of 4 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent
grows at the rate of 3 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level
grows at the rate of 4 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level

I ndusi."ial Sector

9. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of ]0 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per
cent per year.
10. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 12 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per
cent per year.
II. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 10 per cent pcr year and tariff remains at the level
of 2001-02.

279

Annexures

17th Electnc Power Survey

12. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 12 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level
of 200 1-02.
Commercial Sector
13. Sectoral GOP
cent per year.
14. Sectoral GOP
cent per year.
15. Sectoral GOP
of2001-02.
16. Sectoral GOP
of 2001-02.

grows at the rate of 10 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per
grows at the rate of 12 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per
grows at the rate of 10 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level
grows at the rate of 12 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level

CONCLUSION
Based on the model, aggregate electricity is estimated to increase by 6.41 'X
compounded annual growth rate between 2005-06 to 2021-22 when per capita income
grows at the rate of 7.5 per cent per year assuming the tariff rate and electricity intensity
at the level of 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively. The empirical results indicate that thc
electricity demand growth mainly rcllects thc changing expectations of per capita GOP
growth, structural changes, and efficiency improvcment. The main conelusions of thc
cconolnetric Inodcl forecasting are:
(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(v)

Annexures

There exists a stable long-run relationship among the variables in the model over
the sample period. As expected, the relationship among variables is more stable
and significant.
The demand elasticity of per capita GDP is estimated at about 1.356. Price and
income (per capita GOP) are important in the electricity demand function. The
structural changes in Indian economy have significant impact on elcctricity
demand, particularly in the period of rapid economic adjustments.
The electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 6.41 % CAGR
between 2005-06 to 2021-22 when per capita income grows at the rate of 7.5 per
cent per year while assuming the tariff rate and electricity intensity arc at the
level of2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively.
The forecast using the econometric model might have been affected for nonaccounting of industrial consumption of electricity out of captive generation by
the industries which has signillcam contribution to GOP growth, resulting into
lower forecast for the later part of 11th Plan period and onwards.
A comparative statement giving gaps and reasons for the gaps between the three
scts of forecast of electricity demand is enclosed at Annexure-VI.

280

Table No,V A
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
Figures in GWh
SCENARIO

10

11

12

402896.3
407045.2
411393.5
415950.9
420727.4
425733.6
430980.4
436479.5
442243.0
448283.5
454614.5
461249.8
468204.1
475492.8
483131.9
4911383
499529.6

407555.4
413189.7
419173.0
425527.0
432274 .6
439440.1
447049.6
455130.4
463711.7
472824.7
482502.1
492779.0
503692.6
515282.1
527589.6
540659.5
554539.0

409961.3
416393.8
423269.6
430619.1
438475.0
446872.1
455847.8
465441.9
475697.0
486658.7
498375.7
510900.0
524287.1
538596.7
553892.1
570241.4
587717.2

403264.8
407560.5
412069.1
416801.3
421767.9
426980.8
432452,0
4381945
444221.5
450547.4
457186.7
464155.2
471469.0
479145.4
487202.3
495658.5
504533.9

407943.8
413740.1
419904.1
426459.3
433430.5
440844.0
448727.9
457112.2
466028.4
475510.4
485594.1
496317.7
507721.7
519849.4,
532746.6
546462.3
561048.2

410359.9
416962.4
424029.9
431595.0
439692.8
448360.9
457639.4
467571.2
478202.5
489582.3
501763.6
514802.6
528759.8
543699.9
559692.0
576810.3
595134.0

413522.0
421760.0
430698.2
440396.2
450918.4
462335.0
474721.9
4881617
502743.9
518565.4
535731.7
554357.1
574565.6
596491 .8
620281.5
646093.3
674099.0

418754.8
428904.2
440062.0
452328.4
465813.6
480638.5
496936.3
514853.3
534550.5
556204.6
580010.2
606180.9
634951.7
666581.1
701352.9
739579.4
781603.8

520117.0
542618.0
567606.7
595358.2
626178.0
660405.1
698416.5
740630.4
787511.5
839575.8
897396.4
961609.7
1032922.0
1112119.0
1200073.0
1297750.0
1406227.0

411933.8
419890.0
428510.2
437849.8
447968.8
458932.4
470810.9
483680.8
497624.7
512732.4
529100.8
546835.4
566049.9
586868.1
60Q4t,;,

417080.8
426907.1
437694.4
449536.6
462536.9
476808.5
4924758
509675.2
528556.6
549284.5
572039.4
597019.6
624442.6
6545474

419738.6
430566.3
442530.7
455751.1
470359.4
486501.3
5043m]
524046.81
545824.9

YEAR

tv

ox

200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
2011-12
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617
201718
201819
201920
202021
202122

)"

l",,"

633861.5
660338.9

56988931
596480.01
625862.2 :
658329.01
694204.1 [,
a ',I 733845.61
"7\9
~)d,'- ''''.~i
723877.11 777648.61
76370591 826050.1!

J'

('

17th Electric

Power SLiNey

'~

Central Electricity Authority ~

Table V - B
ALL INDIA SECTORAL ESTIMATION OF CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY
-

DEPENDANT
VARIABLE

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
INTERCEPT
Ln(Sectoral
GDP)

Ln
(Sectoral
price)

Adj. R

F- Stat

Ln (QA)
Ln (QC)

-3.617(-1.23)

1.29(5.35)*

-0.40(-5.11)*

0.81

19.64

-11.86(-0.95)

1.55(1.91)***

0.72(0.88)

0.16

1.87

Ln (QI)

8.44(18.08)'
-5.73(-4.87)*

0.32(6.23)*
1.18(11.28)*

-0.12(-1.23)

0.9

42.85

0.08(1.08)

0.98

201

Ln (QD)

Note; QA: Consumption of electricity in Agriculture; QC: Consumption of electricity in


Commercial sector; QI: Consumption of electricity in Industry; QD: Consumption of
electricity in Domestic sector. Values in brackets are t-stat *, ** and *** indicates the
statistical significance of the coefficient at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively.

Table V-C
ALL INDIA PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR PUBLIC LIGHTING,
RAILWAYS & WATER SUPPLY SECTORS
DEPENDANT
VARIABLE

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
INTERCEPT

Ln (QR)
Ln (QP)
Ln (QW)

Adj. R2

F- Stat

TREND

8.51(406)*

0.055(16.19)*

0.97

262

7.43(368)*

0.077(23.67)*
0.059(19.51)*

0.98

560
381

8.35(442)*

0.98

Note: OR: Consumption


of electricity
in Railways; OP: Ccnsumption
of
electricity in Public Lighting;
and OW: Consumption
of electridty
in water
supply sector.
Values in brackets
are t-stat *, ** and *** indicates
the
statistical significance
of the coefficient
at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively.

Annexures

2R2

._'~~rc
>

17th Electric Power SUfvey

..
A ul honly
.
enlra lEI eClncl1y

Table V - 0
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
DOMESTIC SECTOR
Figures in GWh
SCENARIO
2
1
3
4
YEAR
2005-06
116353.04
121548.29
115639.56
120802.95
134822.61
126680.47
133789.97
2006-07
127658.24
2007-08
149546.63
138775.53
148173.18
140061.87
165878.65
152025.39
164102.66
2008-09
153670.69
2009-10
168601.77
183994.30
166540.31
181744.65
204088.37
182441.07
201283.26
2010-11
184983.60
226376.91
222922.38
2011-12
202957.13
199859.99
246887.84
2012-13
222677.02
251099.59
218942.01
273429.72
2013-14
244312.96
278522.24
239845.92
308939.72
262745.68
302825.01
2014-15
268051.10
342679.11
287831.83
335380.46
2015-16
294095.71
371435.82
2016-17
322670.89
380103.18
315313.13
421614.35
345418.26
411367.33
2017-18
354022.51
378397.74
455591.72
2018-19
388420.35
467658.96
2019-20
518732.11
414526.00
504570.48
426160.38
575382.98
454103.67
558814.75
2020-21
467567.34
638220.70
497460.10
618890.60
2021-22
512997.51

2R3

Annexurcs

CentralElectricityAuthorityc""~f;

17th Electn'c Power Survey

Table V - E
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Figures in GWh
2/
SCENARIO
1
4
3
YEAR
2005-06
93948.47
98741.0S
97011.27 --, 101960.07
100774.01
2006-07
96812.97
103025.20
107240.41
2007-08
99764.8
107495.24
104682.69
112794.21
2008-09
112159.23
108742.99
102806.63
118635.63
2009-10
105941.21
117025.58
112960.76
124779.57
109171,36
2010-11
122103.07
117342.13
131241.70
.
2011-12
112500.00
127400.86
121893.44
138038.49
2012-13
115930.13
132928.52
126621 .28
145187.27
2013-14
119464.84
131532.49
138696.00
152706.27
2014-15
123107.33
144713.73
136634.20
160614.68
2015-16
126860.88
150992.55
141933.78
168932.64
14742,8.92
2016-17
130728.87
157543.79
177681.38
2017-18
134714.80
164379.28
153157.58
18688320
171511.35
2018-19
138822.26
159098.05
196561.57
2019-20
178952.86
165268.93
206741.17
143054.96
2020-21
171679.16
147416.71
186717.25
217447.94
2021-22
151911.45
194818.51
178338.02
228709.21
c ___

Annexures

284

._

4
~

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Table V - F
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Figures,--'in GWh
SCENARIO
1
2
4
3
YEAR
2005-06
122129.71
124911.79
123326.75
126136.10
129099.87
127055.38
130683.49
2006-07
125515.73
2007-08
128995.63
133428.36
130896.75
135394.82
137901.98
134854.26
140275.99
2008-09
132572.00
2009-10
136247.53
142525.59
138931.41
145333.15
2010-11
147304.23
143131.84
150572.62
140024.96
2011-12
143907.13
152243.08
147459.26
156000.98
2012-13
147896.92
157347.53
151917.51
161625.04
2013-14
151997.33
162623.12
156510.55
167451.85
2014-15
156211.42
168075.59
161242.46
173488.74
173710.87
166117.44
179743.26
2015-16
160542.35
171139.80
2016-17
164993.35
179535.09
186223.26
2017-18
169567.75
185554.59
176314.00
192936.88
191775.92
181644.64
199892.53
2018-19
174268.98
2019-20
179100.55
198205.83
187136.45
207098.95
2020-21
184066.08
204851.33
192794.30
214565.16
2021-22
189169.27
211719.63
198623.20
222300.55

285

Annex urcs

~tf'
,~.

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Table V - G
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
Figures in GWh
2
4
SCENARIO
1
3
YEAR
94679.69
79985.77
2005-06
84666.68
89445.20
114488.67
2006-07
99559.36
92727.25
106632.06
2007-08
117071.63
138442.09
107498.41
127121.36
2008-09
137664.26
167407.06
124622.58
151547.68
202432.12
144474.57
2009-10
161879.10
180667.51
2010-11
190353.27
244785.15
167488.92
2153820.70
2011-12
223835.98
295999.32
194169.38
256768.39
2012-13
263208.23
357928.56
225099.96
306106.34
2013-14
309505.97
432814.70
260957.69
364924.54
302527.44
2014-15
363947.37
523368.57
435044.65
2015-16
427964.90
632868.22
350719.12
518638.30
2016-17
503242.96
765277.47
406587.59
618294.44
2017-18
591762.27
925389.51
471355.73
737099.46
2018-19
695851.93
1119000.34
546441 .24
878732.82
2019-20
818250.73
1353118.59
633487.63
1047580.98
2020-21
962179.20
1636219.28
734400.25
1248873.24
2021-22
1131424.36
1978550.54
851387.93
1488843.72

Anncxures

286

"

ll~'
,~

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

TABLE V - H
FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN PUBLIC
LIGHTING, WATER SECTOR & RAILWAYS
Figures in GWh
YEAR
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

PUBLIC LIGHTING
4932.292
5326.246
5751.667
6211.067
6707.161
7242.879
7821.386
8446.099
9120.711
9849.205
10635.886
11485.401
12402.769
13393.409
14463.174
15618.385
16865.864

WATER SECTOR
9668.002
10258.655
10885.392
11550.419
12256.075
13004.842
13799.353
14642.404
15536.96
16486.168
17493.366
18562.097
19696.121
20899.427
22176.246
23531.071
24968.667

287

RAILWAYS
10687.841
11287.385
11920.561
12589.256
13295.461
14041.282
14828.941
15660.783
16539.289
17467.076
18446.907
19481.703
20574.547
21728.695
22947.585
24234.851
25594.327

Anncxures

ANNEXURE - VI (Sheet 1/2)


COMPARISION OF FORECASTS OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT USING PARTIAL END USE METHODI
SHORTAGE COMPENSATION METHOD(PEUM/SCM) AND INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY(IEP)
Year

PEUM/SCM-U

NU

EPS (U+NU)

IEP'

Energy

GWh

COMPONENT
GWh

GWh

GWh

Shortage
GWh

2006-07

697961

80000

12011-12

968659

b016-17

1
2003-04

Shortage
compensated
IEP($)
GWh

5
592000

6
40000

777961

712000

68000

780000

110000

1078659

1026000

1026000

1392066

130000

1522066

1425000

1425000

1914.508

140000

2054508

1980000

1980000

Gap (EPS - IEP)


(U+NU)
("!o)

7=5+6
8=(4-7)*100/(4)
632000
-0.26

4.88

,-----

6,38

1'2021-22

---.---.-

.--.-.--."-

---- ..--

3.63

Corresponds to 8% GDP growth scenario including non-utility(captive) energy requirement.


~~ ::::n,ergysnortage fui:y compensated in the year 2003-04 and 2006-07 in the lEP. No energy shortage is expected in the year 201 ->12.

U = Utilities:

NU = Non Utilities

Reason(s) for gaps between EPS and IEP forecasts

(U+NU) (Ref. Column 8)

The percentage gap bet::,'een the results of above two planning excercises
of two different methodoloqies
based on different sets of assumptions.

is in the band of 0-5 ~( 'A':'I'ctl is very nerni"a/

b")

',--'Ii'_'"

<'f,:-~foptfon

ANNEXURE VI (Sheet 2/2)


COMPARISION

..

Year
I

PEUM/SCM-U

..

OF FORECASTS OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT USING PARTIAL END USE METHODI
SHORTAGE COMPENSATION METHOD(PEUM/SCM) AND ECONOMETRIC MODEL(EM)
NU COMPONENT

EPS (U+NU)

EM'

EM ( U+NU)

GWh

GWh

GWh

GWh

Gap (EPS-EM)
(U+NU)

GWh

,
,2

1, ,

(%)

7=( 4-6)*100/(4)

697961

80000

777961

756473

836473

-7.52

i20i
-- 'i -12 i

968659

110000
-

1078659

895062

1005062

6.82

12016-17 !

'-----

1392066

130000

1522066

1180759

1310759

13.88

2021-22

1914508

140000

2054508

1690380

1830380

10.91

f2006-07

Corresponds to aggregate level forecasting model considering PCGDP grow~h


2001-02 and the electricity intensity remaining at the level of 2003-04.
(j ~ Utilities:

Reason(s)

7.5 per year, electricity price remaining at the level

NU ~ Non Utilities
for gaps between EPS and EM forecasts

(U+NU) (Ref. Column 7)

The Time series data of electricity consumption iJsed for establishing correlation for econometric model die! flot include consuniptlon
industries out of captive generation

in

therefore. leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards. The indices hal,'e been

considered for the period when the electricity grmvth as well as the GOP growth were low

LIST OF EPIS PUBLICATIONS OF CEA DOCUMENTS (As on 21.03.2007)


Electric POv.'er Information Society which is established under aL"gisof CEA has published vil(iollS priced docUllients prepared by Cb\ cOJllaiJlin!,
llllportalll Datal Informatioll in regard to the Power Sector in India_ The ,lvailabk doculIlcnts are listed belm,-

I
~
]
4

:'i.
"6

-,-.

k'l'

Supplement to Inve~iipor1ullltlcs
for pflvdte!~:J._r~l~lpatlOnIn Towel Scc~lr Jan '99
~crage
R,lles for E]eetnclly Suppl) & ElectnClt} Duty ~n Indld June, 1999
Avcrag.~tes
for EkctrlClty Supply & E1ectflcJtyDury JJJ IndIa Dee ::001
Tariff ~verage
Rates of Electricity Supply & F;J~ctricliy Du~' Iii In~ia, M;ll~h, lOO',
Report on Small Hydro Potential of India
1 Financial Performance Review of SEB's
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Published

By

SECRETARY
Central Electricity Authority
Sewa Bhawan, R.K. Puram
New Delhi 110 066
Tel No. 011-26108476, 26105619

Printed By
Central Board of Irrigation
& Power vide CEA's Authorization
Letter No. CEA/PLG/LF!l7EPS/645-647 dated 27"' April 2007
Contact Address for Sale of Publication

CENTRAL BOARD OF IRRIGATION

& POWER

Malcha Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi 110021


Phone: 91-11-2611 5984; Fax: 91-11-2611 6347
E-mail: cbip@cbip.org.cbip@vsnl.com
Website : www.cbip.org
or

ELECTRIC POWER INFORMATION SOCIETY


CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY
Sewa Bhawan, R.K. Puram
New Delhi 110 066
Phone: 91-11-26105619, 26105886, 26105546
Fax: 91-11-26108476
Website : www.cea.nic.in

Price:

Report on Seventeenth Electric Power


Survey of India

Rs. 1000

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