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. . -. . 13. . 2008.


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( 1),
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, (4).
() , , , ( /) (
, , ,
3

: World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2007. Washington


(D.C.), 2007. P. 42, 102.

, ). , , :
FERT = 6.90 0.06CONTRA (R2 adj = 0.88, p< 0.02)
, (23%
) 3.4
, (46%) (79%),
, , ( 2).

,
,
, (
),
(r = 0.35). ,
, , ( 3).
4

: World Development Indicators, 2006. P. 110; 2007. P. 102.

: , 2000 . 10 .
: World Development Indicators, 1998; 2003; 2007.

,
1.6% 1980- 2.5% 1990- .
4.9% 20002007 .5 ( 1.4%
1980- ., 1990- . 2.5%
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. XXI .
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10,
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1997
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

20072

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4.3
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6.1
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: 1. , , , , . , , ; 2. .
: IMF. Regional Economic Outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington
(D.C.), 2004. March. P. 38; 2007. October. P. 3; World Bank. Global Economic Prospects.
2008. Washington (D.C.), 2008. P. 193.

, ,

( 19132006 ., . 2).
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2

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1913 .

1950 .

1980 .

2006 .

11.3
17.1
26.7
12.8
12.3
15.5
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26.3
18.1

9.2
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7.6
21.8
27.9
4.9
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79.6
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4.6
13.6
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: 1. 2006 . ,
World Development Indicators, 2007; 2003; .. . ., 2003. . 68; 2.
,
, , ,
, ( , , ,
). .: 2005 International Comparison Program. Preliminary
Global Report Compares Size of Economies (www.worldbank.org/data/icp.); Bradsher K.
How Big Is the Chinese Economy? // The International Herald Tribune. 2007. 20 Dec.

, , , , .

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1970- .

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17,
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,
, . ,
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19891998 . 8.6% 19992006 . ( 4). , , , .
134.2% 7.5%, 9.7%
2.8%, 11.4% 5.9%. 20 19992006 .
(2.4 ..) ,
2.6 , , ( ).
4

: IMF. World Economic Outlook. Washington (D.C.), 2007.


September. P. 218, 221223.

, , 1012 , ,
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3
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1990

2005

1980

1996

2006

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32
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72
8

68
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20

23

2829

: 1. .
: World Bank. World Development Indicators, 1998.
P. 182; 2003. P. 198; 2007. P. 196; UNDP. Human Development Report, 1994. N.Y.,
1994. P. 210; ILO. Africa Employment Trends. Geneva, 2007. P. 79.

1990 .: , ( 20% 1980 .


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2005

1980

2005

1980

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33
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31

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: , (
), .
: World Bank. World Development Indicators, 1998. P. 178; 2007.
P. 192, 196.

10


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1990- .

20012006 .

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20
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: 1. m, y, k
( %), ( %),
(k = m : y, ).
: World Development Indicators. 2003. P. 188, 220; 2004. P. 216;
2006. P. 196, 224; World Development Report, 2000/2001. P. 299; 2008. P. 341.

16

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() (1 ) 19602000 . 0.35 0.65 2000
2006 . 0.4 0.6.
: .. - ... . 6970;
World Development Indicators, 1998. P. 206; 2003. P. 220; 2006. P. 228; World Development Report, 2008. P. 341.

18

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2006

2026
5840
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15.3
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67.0
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2030
6040
8800
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7740
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48
68
73
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77
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19.7
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: 1. (D) : Dij = {(Aij/Au)


(Bij/Bu)(Cij/Cu)}1/3100, %, Aij, Bij, Cij (i) /
(j) 2006 ., .,

, . Au, Bu, Cu
2006 .; 2. . . 1 2 . 2.
: . 2, 5; .. - .
. 68; . : , , // :
. ., 2007. . 131; UNDP. Human Development Report, 19942007.

(41.1%). 1913 . 25 .
(30.25.0), 1950 . 34 (42.78.7), 1980 .
51.7 (67.015.3), 2006 . 68.4 (88.119.7).
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8

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1913

1950

1980

2006

b1

11.3

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28.1

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4.6

44.3

17.1
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32.8
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14.8
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21.8
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48.2
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91.8
92.8
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13.6
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61.8
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: 1. (b)
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(. 9), , 2006 .60


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: 19982005 . 7.5
15, 25 5 125.
61
, 2.3%
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, 260 1998 . ( 5 265) 710 2005 . (125
835), 303 21

9

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A

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: 1. (D) : Dij =
= {(Aij/Ax)(Bij/Bx)(Cij/Cx)}1/3100, %, Aij, Bij, Cij (i)
(j) 2006 ., .,

, . Ax, Bx, Cx 2006 .; 2. . . 1 2 . 2; 3. T
. (
), ; 4. N ,
(.
. , . , . ), , , , , , ; 5.
Hij = {(Aij/Ax)(Bij/Bx)(Cij/Cx)(Tij/Tx)(Nij/Nx)}0.2100, %. Ax .. Nx 2006 .
: . 7, : Heston A., Summers R., Aten B. Penn
World Table. Version 6.2, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income
and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, September, 2006 (http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/
php_site/pwt62/pwt62_retrieve.php.); Kaufmann D., Kraay A., Mastruzzi M. Governance
Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators for 19962006. World
Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4280. Washington (D.C.), 2007. July. P. 7693.

1998 . ( 7.5 311) 564


2005 . (15 579).
, ().
26 1998 . (
5 31 ) 254
22

2005 . (125 379 ), 15.5 1998 . ( 7.5 23 ) 43 2005 . (15


58 )62.
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1981 . 476 1990 . 169 2004 .,
, 473 1981 .
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,
168 1981 .
240 1990 . 298 2004 .

5758% 1981 . 2930% 1990 . 9%
2004 . ( ), 5152% 1981 .
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(910% 19812004 .),
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12% 2004 .,
-
: 4243% 1981 . 46
47% 1990 . 2004 . 1981 .66
, 2 . 1993 . 1170 1981 . 1113 1990 . 684 2004 .,
, 1981/2004 . 1.7 4.7 . , ( 1 2 .
) 374 1981 .
637 1990 ., 14 ,
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2004 .
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( 104 1981 . 121 2004 .)
( 51 59 ),
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1116 2004 .
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24

,
3.3% 1980- .
1.2% 19902004 .
, 2025 , ,

127 1981 . 156 1990 . 224 2004 .67

( 2 . , ) 19812004 . (
8485% 3637%, 2829% 2223%,
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90% 7778%), , , 7475%
1981 . 7778% 19871990 ., 1990- .
, 2004 . 72%68.
, ,
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).

, , .
, , .
,
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69.
, 70
,
.
, ,
, 19851995 . 1995
2003 . 71 ( ) .
, 0.38
0.39. 0.32
0.35, - 0.39
0.41, 0.46 0.50 0.51 0.5272.
25

,
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. , ,
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, 19802006 .).

, 1012
, . ,
, .
( , 2000
2005 . )73,
, , ( , ) 74.
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0.5% 1980- . 6.9% 2000- .
( !)
.

: (,
)
( 17% 1990 . 18% 2000 . 1920% 2005 .)75,
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. , 7%, 76.
.
, , .

(, , ) , ,
77,
26

, ,

, 78, ( )79
80 , , .

4
5

- , , , .
., : Artadi E.V., Sala-i-Martin X. The Economic Tragedy of the Twentieth
Century: Growth in Africa // World Economic Forum. The Africa Competitiveness
Report, 2004. Geneva, 2004.
: World Bank. World Development Indicators. 2003. P. 40; 2006. P. 48;
World Development Report, 2008. Washington (D.C.). P. 335.
.
World Bank. World Development Indicators. 2003. P. 188; 2006. P. 196; World
Development Report. 2008. Washington (D.C.). P. 341; World Bank. Global Economic
Prospects, 2008. Washington (D.C.), 2008. P. 193.
.: .. -
(- ). ., 2003. . 68.
,
, . , 1.5
3.0 . (Rowe J. How to Extend Latin Americas Growth Spells. 2007. 15 Jan.
(www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/CAR0430A.htm).

(.: .. : , , // . . -. . 13. . 2006. 2. . 15
17). : World Bank. World Development Report, 2008. P. 335, 341.
, ,
( 5% 1996 .
4.5% 2001 . 3.7% 2005 .; 13% 1990 . 10.2%
2005 ., 2% 0.8% ,
4.4% 1.1% , 3.4% 2% , 9.6% 1.3%,
7.5% 1.6%, 6.7 3.5% ) (World
Development Indicators, 2003. P. 252; 2007. P. 254256); :
( )
53% 1990 . 68% 2005 . (
38 52%. World Development Indicators, 2007. P. 220).
(%
) 41% 1990 . 6465% 2005 .,
9.4% 14.9%, 4.9% 15.5%, 13.9% 25.3%, 9.4% 19%, 35.6%

27

76.7%, 22.6% 61.4% 81% 143%.


, , ,
(
17% 1990 . 16% 2005 .),
,
( 2005 . 55%)
(156%) , , , , 57% ,
23% (World Development Indicators, 2007. P. 266). ,
80% . 2004 . 15% (Guide A.-M.,
Pattillo C. Financial Sector Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa // The Journal of Social,
Political and Economic Studies. 2006. Vol. 31, N 2. P. 135).
( ) , 3% 1990 . 12% 2000 . 30%
2005 ., 5% 9 20% , 7% 16 24%, 5% 10 34%, 10%
30 42% . : 2005 . 12% 5% 236% (
: 2005 . 50%, 137%) (World Development
Indicators, 1998. P. 258260; 2007. P. 276278).
10
19992006 . CPIA (Country Policy and Institutional Assessment,
3.5 1 6) 5 15,
CPIA 2.8 1995 . 3.2 2006 . 19952006 . 27
36 , CPIA,
CPIA (Africa Development Indicators, 2007. P. 3).
11
: World Bank. Africa Development Indicators, 2007. Washington (D.C.),
2008. P. 25.
12
, , , , ,
, (World Bank. Africa Development Indicators. 2007, P. 2, 14).
13
Arbache J.S., Page J. Patterns of Long Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. World
Bank. Washington (D.C.), 2007. September.
14
() 0.5
: F = {[ ( y i - y ) 2 ] n -1 } ( y 1 ) 100 , (%), F
, yi y i- , n .
15
( )
, ,
, ( : Some Interesting
Facts About Sub Saharan Africa. Johannesburg, 2007. 14 Nov. (www.worldbank.org);
World Bank. World Tables, 1994. Washington (D.C.), 1994. P. 89).
16
, 2007 . (5),
, 1990- . (16; Africa Development Indicators. 2007. P. 3).
17
1315 . ( 2000 .) 19951998 .
2325 . 20032005 . (.: Bio-Tchane A., Yehoue E. Africas Missing
Ingredients // Finance and Development, 2007. December. Vol. 44, N 4).
18
: IMF. World Economic Outlook. Washington (D.C.), 2007. September.
P. 218, 221222.
19
.
n
20
: s = [1 n ( yi - y ) 2 ]0.5 ], yi i =1
n .
i ; y

28

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24

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: S = {[1 + | d it - d i0 |]1 n -1} 100 , (%),


i
di0 dit i-

.
1990 . . 3 4.
: World Development Indicators, 2004. P. 184; 2007. P. 192.

20012003 . 1112%,
3233%, 3536% 3839%,
3.43.6% 0.8%, 0.1%,
1.8%, 2.6% 9%.

6065 19891991 . 8390 20002002 .,
7475 106107 , 111 215 ,
14.2 12.5 , 13.5
6.6 , 1.1 0.7 (,
5556 ). 100 2
, ,
20 . 19891991 . 13 . 20012003 .,
56 89 .,
113 142 ., 67 129 . (World Development Indicators,
2004. P. 120122; 2006. P. 134136; 2007. P. 130132).

, 4% (.: Tomlinson C. Farmers in Africa, West Rethink Subsidy // The Business
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21 29 /,
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Tomlinson C. Farmers in Africa, West Rethink Subsidy // The Business Week. 2007.
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19992003 . (12.5%) 2.5 ,
78 , (World Development Indicators, 2007. P.296). 2.3 1990 . 2.8 2003 .,
18.8 21.8 ( 8
9.4 6667 72 . : World Development Indicators, 2007.
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14 , (World
Development Indicators, 2007. P. 300). ,
( 2004 . 55%),
, (UNDP. Human Development
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, , 5% 34%
.
, 1835% , 8% (Can

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33

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Africa Claim the 21st Century? The World Bank. Washington (D.C.), 2000. P. 135136;
World Bank. Africa Development Indicators, 2007. Washington (D.C.), 2008. P. 2, 6).
, , ( 15% 1980 . 30% 2005 .
1% 5%), ( :
27 50% 5 10%, 43
71% 3 19%).
. . . 70 .
.
, ,
.
20% 1549 (, ,
, , ). ,
,
49 1990 . 47 2005 . (World Development Indicators,
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Ease of Doing Business 2006/
2007 . 76, 87, 96, 107,
136 178 ( ), ,
, , 32, 35,
43, 51. 2006 . ( % ) 163%, 3.5 ,
20 , .
78%,
11%, 18%, 41%, 46%,
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,
( 5.6% 1990- . 1.9% 20002005 .), ( 5.0 4.4%), ( 7.1% 2.5%) ( 5.4 1.7%)
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30

39

,
( 8.5% 1990- . 5.4% 20002005 . (World Development Indicators.
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40
.: .. : , . ., 1996. . 134.
41
: UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics, 20062007. N.Y., 2007. P. 206
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, 19802005 .
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1020% ( : UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics, 20062007.
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: World Development Indicators, 1998. P. 13; 2003. P. 219; 2004. P. 183,
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44
: World Development Indicators, 1998. P. 44; 2007. P. 42, 289; World
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45
: j = htma , ht ()
; ma
.
46
: World Development Report, 2008. P. 342343.
47
World Development Indicators, 2007. P. 325.
48
: World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2007. P. 218220.
49
, 2005 . , , 10
11% (Winning the Fight against Corruption // World Economic Forum on
Africa. 2006. 6 Jan.).
50
, , ( ) , ,
1822%,
( . . ; . : .. , . ., 2000. . 47).
51
, .
52
yi/yj = mi/mjfi/fj, y, m, f (i, j) , .
53
. 5, : UNDP. Human Development Report,
1994; 2003; 2007.
54
: World Development Indicators, 2004. P. 40, 44; 2007. P. 42, 46.
55
., , .. . .,
1996. . 1.
56
( 2003 . 4243%, ,
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1617% (Economy Characteristics (www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreEconomics/
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,
.
( , , 0.16:0.84).
: World Bank. World Development Report, 2000/2001. P. 310311;
World Development Indicators, 2007. P. 300302, 305306. ,
.
(47 2006 .), (145 ) (73 ). .
1998 .
56, , 2005 .
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, 2005 . 85, 38 3.
World Economic Forum. African Competitiveness Report, 2007. P. 103.
. .. .
. , ,

( ,
, ),
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, .

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G n = 1 - 1 n [2 Q i + 1] , Gn , Qi (n1) . 0
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: World Bank. World Development Indicators, 1997. P. 5456; 2006.
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,
(UNCTAD. Economic Development in Africa. N.Y., 2007. P. 89).
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, ,
(Johnson S., Ostry J., Subramanian A. The
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: K t = K 0 + (I - A ) , K0 Kt t
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( ) ; A
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2000 . ,
K2000/Y2000 = m/(g + ), K Y
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