A

1
2
3
4
5
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10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Recom

15Jul

8Jul

BANKS
BDO
BPI
METROBANK
PNB
SECURITYBANK
RCBC

Buy2
Buy2
Hold
Buy1
Buy1
Buy1

57.00
58.50
79.55
59.90
105.50
28.15

55.15
58.75
71.65
63.50
104.80
27.30

58.50
59.00
72.00
63.50
85.75
28.40

64.00
63.00
81.00
69.00
143.00
39.00

PROPERTY
AYALALAND
FILINVESTLAND
MEGAWORLD
ROBINSONSLAND
SMDEVELOPMENT
SMPRIMEHOLDINGS

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Sell
Hold

16.20
1.24
2.03
12.94
8.20
11.60

15.90
1.24
2.10
12.66
8.35
11.76

16.46
1.31
2.48
10.06
7.83
11.38

18.10
1.70
3.00
13.00
7.00
11.70

wtd

%change
ytd

toFV

Shares
o/s(mn)

Marketcap
(000pesos)

2010A

EPS
2011F

2012F

AB

AC

AD

AF

AG

AH

2010A

PE
2011F

2012F

ValuationsinaBox
7/15/2011
Company

HOLDINGCOMPANIES
AYALACORP.
ABOITIZEQUITY
ALLIANCEGLOBAL
DMCIHOLDINGS
JGSUMMIT
METROPACIFIC
SMINVESTMENTS

Price
end2010 EstmtdFV*

326.00
42.10
11.60
43.20
26.20
3.60
543.50

328.33
37.10
12.50
36.00
19.60
3.89
543.00

369.00
54.00
15.00
49.00
30.00
4.00
507.00

12.3%
7.7%
1.8%
15.2%
35.5%
38.5%

2,607.44
3,555.98
2,111.39
662.25
418.63
990.55

636,328
148,624
208,025
167,961
39,669
44,166
27,884

43,483
8,825
11,312
8,381
3,515
7,200
4,250

45,295
9,889
12,010
10,119
3,831
4,271
5,175

51,485
11,646
13,550
11,310
4,150
4,963
5,866

3.37
3.38
4.62
5.31
17.20
4.05

3.20
3.38
5.02
5.78
10.20
4.43

3.77
3.81
5.60
6.27
11.86
4.88

44%
36%
29%
50%
61%
110%
32%

3%
5%
0%
9%
9%
41%
9%

13%
18%
13%
12%
8%
16%
10%

12.6
16.9
17.3
17.2
11.3
6.1
7.0

13.0
17.8
17.3
15.8
10.4
10.3
6.4

11.5
15.1
15.4
14.2
9.6
8.9
5.8

1.9%
0.0%
3.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.4%

1.6%
5.3%
18.1%
28.6%
4.8%
1.9%

11.7%
37.1%
47.8%
0.5%
14.6%
0.9%

12,963.00
24,249.76
25,637.78
4,093.83
8,428.37
13,329.33

568,822
210,001
30,070
52,045
52,974
69,113
154,620

27,254
5,460
2,417
4,881
3,596
3,000
7,900

32,028
6,308
3,031
5,961
4,088
3,969
8,671

38,589
8,201
3,469
7,077
4,594
5,383
9,865

0.41
0.10
0.19
1.31
0.46
0.58

0.49
0.13
0.22
1.16
0.47
0.63

0.63
0.14
0.25
1.12
0.64
0.72

21%
32%
25%
20%
10%
17%
9%

11%
19%
25%
16%
11%
3%
9%

26%
30%
14%
13%
3%
35%
13%

18.4
39.5
12.4
10.7
9.9
17.9
20.0

16.6
33.3
9.9
9.2
11.2
17.4
18.3

13.9
25.6
8.7
8.2
11.6
12.9
16.2

0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
5.8%
1.1%
0.3%
0.5%

0.7%
13.2%
7.4%
26.9%
35.2%
7.7%
0.4%

13.2%
28.6%
29.5%
7.2%
13.2%
11.4%
6.3%

583.23
5,521.87
9,719.73
2,655.49
6,797.19
20,160.46
611.02

1,239,026
190,132
231,919
112,554
121,356
180,126
72,376
330,563

85,189
7,600
21,865
6,909
7,849
18,710
3,856
18,400

92,043
9,830
20,892
9,644
9,120
16,924
5,199
20,435

106,687
11,883
23,259
12,283
10,080
19,952
5,553
23,676

11.03
4.20
0.71
2.96
2.75
0.19
30.17

16.16
3.78
0.99
3.43
2.49
0.24
33.32

20.74
4.21
1.26
3.80
2.94
0.26
38.58

112%
22%
180%
45%
68%
439%
7%
26%

13%
46%
10%
40%
16%
9%
26%
10%

18%
28%
11%
27%
11%
18%
8%
16%

16.8
29.5
10.0
16.3
15.4
9.6
18.6
17.9

14.0
20.2
11.1
11.7
13.3
10.6
14.8
16.2

11.9
15.7
10.0
9.2
12.0
9.0
13.7
14.0

CONSUMER
JOLLIBEEFOODS
SMC
UNIVERSALROBINA

Sell
Buy1
Sell

89.00 89.00 88.90 61.00

128.60 130.00 163.80 155.88
47.70 44.50 34.95 40.00

MEDIA
ABSCBN
GMA7

Buy1
Hold

39.10 39.50 45.00 53.00

6.90 6.90 7.20 7.00

TELECOMS
GLOBETELECOM
PHIL.LONGDISTANCE

Hold
Buy1

903.00 899.00 800.00 942.00

2,370.00 2,376.00 2,554.00 2,790.00

488,085

26,108

32,460

38,760

85%

36%

24% 24.1

22.5

18.3

0.0%
0.1% 31.5% 1,039.00
1.1% 21.5% 21.2% 2,308.39
7.2% 36.5% 16.1% 2,070.35

92,471
296,858
98,756

3,198
17,100
5,810

3,010
24,745
4,705

3,307
28,085
7,368

3.08 2.90
4.86 8.13
2.81 2.28

3.18
9.53
3.57

19%
105%
87%

6%
67%
19%

10% 28.9
17% 26.5
57% 17.0

30.7
15.8
20.9

28.0
13.5
13.4

1.0%
0.0%

13.1%
4.2%

35.5% 779.58
1.4% 3,361.05

53,673
30,482
23,191

5,754
2,837
2,917

5,883
3,059
2,824

6,218
3,337
2,881

3.64 3.92
0.60 0.58

4.28
0.59

28%
63%
3%

14%
8%
3%

8% 11.1
9% 10.7
2% 11.5

10.9
10.0
11.9

10.4
9.1
11.6

0.4%
0.3%

12.9%
7.2%

4.3% 132.35
17.7% 186.80

562,222
119,511
442,711

49,300
9,100
40,200

52,936
10,065
42,871

52,122
9,667
42,455

68.75 72.91
212.85 224.55

74.32
225.44

5%
27%
1%

6%
6%
5%

1% 12.1
2% 13.1
0% 11.1

11.5
12.4
10.6

11.3
12.2
10.5

0.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.7%

2.3%
17.2%
26.9%
19.7%

28.9%
16.3%
4.8%
2.6%

7,358.60
18,750.00
3,362.61
1,127.27

722,734
234,003
129,000
51,986
307,745

47,006
25,041
7,238
2,572
12,155

45,789
21,375
7,531
3,166
13,717

51,177
23,575
10,119
3,473
14,009

3.40
0.39
0.98
10.78

3.20
0.54
1.25
12.43

150%
342%
1%
51%
102%

3%
15%
4%
21%
13%

11%
10%
34%
6%
2%

17.1
9.4
17.8
15.9
25.3

15.9
11.0
17.1
13.1
22.4

14.3
9.9
12.7
12.4
22.0

6.5%
0.9%

62.1%
17.2%

14.9% 4,915.89
29.6% 356.25

205,540
128,305
77,235

7,903
4,150
3,753

11,862
5,960
5,902

12,768
6,196
6,572

0.84 1.22 1.26

12.29
17.72
19.73

62%
46%
88%

44%
45%
44%

6% 24.3
3% 30.9
11% 17.6

16.8
21.4
12.2

15.9
20.7
11.0

49%
61%
13%
16%

14.9
20.1
9.8
13.5

10.5
12.5
8.6
11.7

POWER
ABOITIZPOWER
ENERGYDEVELOPMENT
FIRSTGEN
MERALCO

Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Hold

31.80
6.88
15.46
273.00

MINING
PHILEX
SEMIRARAMINING

Buy2
Buy1

26.10 24.50 16.10 30.00

216.80 214.80 185.00 281.00

OTHERS
ICTSI
MANILAWATER
PSEi/BASKET

2.6%
0.8%
10.5%
5.7%
23.0%
0.9%

326.00
42.00
11.58
45.70
26.50
3.59
541.00

31.65
7.02
15.08
274.80

31.10
5.87
12.18
228.00

41.00
8.00
16.20
280.00

Sell
Buy1

EPSGrowth(%)
2010A 2011F 2012F

3.4%
0.4%
11.0%
5.7%
0.7%
3.1%

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Buy2
Buy2
Buy2
Sell

NetIncome(Pmn)
2010A
2011F
2012F

2.90
0.40
1.18
12.17

150,984 8,244 10,074 14,181

13%
79%
57.40 53.90 45.00 48.00
6.5%
27.6% 16.4% 1,939.88 111,349 4,266 5,725 9,243 1.44 2.86 4.61
9%
98%
19.76 19.40 19.18 25.86
1.9%
3.0% 30.9% 2,005.81 39,635 3,978 4,349 4,938
1.62
2.02
2.29
24%
25%
4,458.74 4,391.46 4,201.14
1.5%
6.1% 12.8%
4,627,414 300,241 328,369 371,987
74%
15%
Notes:2010and1011Netincome,Bookvalue,ROEandDividendforecastsaremostlyconsensusestimatestakenfromBloombergandwillbereplacedbyourownasweinitiatecoverage
companybycompany.Forecastdataforcompaniesinlightercoloredfontarealreadyourown.
EstmtdFV(EstimatedFairValue)isbasedonrelativevaluationmeasuresPEandPricetobooktogetherwithROE,EPSgrowthforecastandNetincometomarketcapitalizationratios
Buy1representsourtopsectoralpickwithanexpected1yearpriceupsideofatleast15%.Buy2referstoanalternativebutsecondchoiceselectioninasectororastockwithaprice
upsidebetween614%.Holdpertainstostockswith05%priceupsideorwithprevailingmaterialuncertainty.SellpertainstostockswhoseFVisbelowcurrentmarketprice
Recommendationsinredareviewsthathavebeenchangedonlythisweek.

26.0
39.8
12.2
15.6

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

AJ

Recom

2010A

BANKS
BDO
BPI
METROBANK
PNB
SECURITYBANK
RCBC

Buy2
Buy2
Hold
Buy1
Buy1
Buy1

31.06
22.78
42.42
50.31
59.96
29.10

34.17
24.74
46.54
55.82
68.92
34.47

37.97
26.92
50.90
61.76
78.77
39.15

1.7
1.8
2.6
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.0

1.5
1.7
2.4
1.7
1.1
1.5
0.8

1.4
1.5
2.2
1.6
1.0
1.3
0.7

13.9
11.3
15.3
10.6
11.0
22.6
12.4

PROPERTY
AYALALAND
FILINVESTLAND
MEGAWORLD
ROBINSONSLAND
SMDEVELOPMENT
SMPRIMEHOLDINGS

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Sell
Hold

4.36
1.71
2.22
10.06
3.88
3.97

4.97
1.79
2.44
10.65
4.01
4.24

5.74
1.88
2.59
11.36
4.35
4.66

1.9
3.7
0.7
0.9
1.3
2.1
2.9

1.8
3.3
0.7
0.8
1.2
2.0
2.7

1.6
2.8
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.9
2.5

HOLDINGCOMPANIES
AYALACORP.
ABOITIZEQUITY
ALLIANCEGLOBAL
DMCIHOLDINGS
JGSUMMIT
METROPACIFIC
SMINVESTMENTS

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Buy2
Buy2
Buy2
Sell

184.39
11.65
5.99
10.15
17.38
2.69
231.65

196.87
13.85
7.27
12.58
19.82
2.91
247.94

213.67
16.30
8.47
15.27
22.71
3.16
277.20

2.4
1.8
3.6
1.9
4.5
1.5
1.3
2.3

2.1
1.7
3.0
1.6
3.6
1.3
1.2
2.2

CONSUMER
JOLLIBEEFOODS
SMC
UNIVERSALROBINA

Sell
Buy1
Sell

MEDIA
ABSCBN
GMA7

Buy1
Hold

TELECOMS
GLOBETELECOM
PHIL.LONGDISTANCE

AK

AL

AN

AO

AP

AR

AS

AT

AV

AW

AX

AZ

BA

BB

BC

BD

ValuationsinaBox
7/15/2011
BVPS(pesos)
2011F
2012F

P/BV(x)
2010A 2011F 2012F

2012F

Dividend/share(pesos)
2010A
2011F
2012F

12.6
10.9
14.2
10.9
10.9
15.7
13.2

12.8
11.8
14.8
10.7
10.7
16.1
12.8

0.80
1.80
1.00

2.00
0.60

0.80
1.80
1.00
0.27
2.00
0.60

0.80
1.80
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.60

1.6% 1.7%
1.4% 1.4%
3.1% 3.1%
1.3% 1.3%
0.0% 0.4%
1.9% 1.9%
2.1% 2.1%

1.7%
1.4%
3.1%
1.3%
0.6%
1.9%
2.1%

21%
53%
21%
5%
20%
11%

79%
47%
79%
95%
80%
89%

12.0
10.0
7.3
9.3
13.7
16.5
15.3

11.4
10.3
7.1
10.2
11.5
13.7
15.8

12.0
12.1
7.7
10.5
10.2
15.6
16.0

0.12
0.02
0.03
0.48
0.08
0.27

0.14
0.03
0.03
0.36
0.08
0.29

0.18
0.03
0.04
0.41
0.08
0.33

1.8% 1.8%
0.7% 0.9%
1.9% 2.1%
1.3% 1.5%
3.7% 2.8%
1.0% 1.0%
2.3% 2.5%

2.0%
1.1%
2.0%
1.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2.8%

29%
21%
13%
36%
17%
45%

71%
79%
87%
64%
83%
55%

1.8
1.5
2.6
1.4
3.0
1.2
1.1
2.0

18.8
5.9
40.1
12.6
33.2
18.6
7.4
13.9

16.9
8.5
29.7
15.0
30.2
13.4
8.7
13.1

16.8
10.1
27.9
16.1
27.3
13.8
8.7
13.5

4.33
0.52
0.06
0.50
0.05
0.01
8.36

3.68
1.58
0.06
1.00
0.05
0.02
9.50

3.94
1.76
0.06
1.11
0.05
0.02
11.85

0.9% 1.4%
1.3% 1.1%
1.2% 3.8%
0.5% 0.5%
1.1% 2.2%
0.2% 0.2%
0.3% 0.6%
1.5% 1.8%

1.6%
1.2%
4.2%
0.5%
2.4%
0.2%
0.6%
2.2%

22%
42%
6%
29%
2%
8%
28%

78%
58%
94%
71%
98%
92%
72%

3.1 2.6 2.4

14.5

12.0

13.1

3.4% 2.6%

2.7%

16.48 18.38 20.56 5.4 4.8 4.3

91.66 155.88 157.35 1.4 0.8 0.8
19.78 21.55 24.92 2.4 2.2 1.9

19.0
9.3
15.1

16.6
8.5
11.0

16.3
7.6
15.4

2.25
7.45
0.94

1.00
7.45
0.37

1.00
7.45
0.55

2.5% 1.1%
5.8% 5.8%
2.0% 0.8%

1.1%
5.8%
1.2%

35%
69%
16%

65%
31%
84%

2.4 2.2 2.1

24.40 27.22 30.39 1.6 1.4 1.3
2.14 2.26 2.40 3.2 3.1 2.9

21.8
16.2
27.3

20.7
15.2
26.2

20.1
14.9
25.2

1.11
0.70

1.11
0.45

6.5% 4.7%
1.11 2.8% 2.8%
0.45 10.1% 6.5%

4.7%
2.8%
6.5%

28%
54%

72%
46%

Hold
Buy1

3.7 3.5 3.4

354.13 358.61 364.81 2.5 2.5 2.5
495.99 528.21 539.32 4.8 4.5 4.4

31.2
19.2
43.1

32.2
20.5
43.8

31.4
20.5
42.2

77.35
219.00

68.43
192.33

68.12
214.33

7.6%
8.1%

7.5%
9.0%

90%
84%

10%
16%

POWER
ABOITIZPOWER
ENERGYDEVELOPMENT
FIRSTGEN
MERALCO

Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Hold

7.79
1.71
15.72
57.58

2.7
2.8
3.6
0.8
3.6

25.9
54.6
23.0
5.8
20.3

20.8
33.9
22.2
6.1
21.0

21.6
30.8
29.9
6.2
19.4

0.30 1.32 1.13

0.12 0.16 0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.65 5.59 6.21

1.2% 2.1%
0.9% 4.2%
1.7% 2.3%
0.0% 0.0%
2.1% 2.0%

2.2%
3.6%
3.1%
0.0%
2.3%

45%
40%
0%
46%

55%
60%
100%
54%

MINING
PHILEX
SEMIRARAMINING

Buy2
Buy1

5.8 5.4 4.3

4.17 4.17 5.07 6.3 6.3 5.1
40.41 48.77 62.50 5.4 4.4 3.5

27.5
21.1
33.8

33.9
26.4
41.3

29.2
23.0
35.5

0.11
6.00

0.32
6.00

0.32
6.00

1.6% 2.0%
0.4% 1.2%
2.8% 2.8%

2.0%
1.2%
2.8%

26%
36%

74%
64%

4.2
8.98 14.42 18.03 6.4
9.87 11.35 13.03 2.0
2.5

17.8
14.5
21.1
16.6

20.2
21.4
19.0
15.7

23.6
28.4
18.8
15.8

0.40
0.46

0.40
0.54

0.40
0.61

1.5% 1.7%
0.7% 0.7%
2.3% 2.7%
2.1% 2.1%

1.9%
0.7%
3.1%
2.2%

14%
25%
30%

86%
75%
70%

Company

OTHERS
ICTSI
MANILAWATER
PSEi/BASKET

Sell
Buy1

9.37
1.61
16.18
66.56

11.44
1.92
17.32
75.71

3.5
4.1
4.0
1.0
4.7

3.2
3.4
4.3
1.0
4.1

2.9
4.0
1.7
2.2

2.4
3.2
1.5
1.9

2010A

ROE(%)
2011F

DividendYield(%)
2010A 2011F 2012F

8.6%
9.2%

D/E
RR
2011F

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

BU

BV

BW

BX

BY

BZ

CA

CB

ValuationsinaBox
7/15/2011
BasisofFV*
Company

Recom

BANKS
BDO
BPI
METROBANK
PNB
SECURITYBANK
RCBC

Buy2
Buy2
Hold
Buy1
Buy1
Buy1

1.7xhistoricalPBR
BasedonhistoricalaveragePEof17.4x.AlreadyathistorialaveragePBRof2.3x.BRof2.3x.
BasedonhistoricalaveragePEof15.3x.HistoricalPBRis1.3x.
BasedonaverageindustryPE
BasedonaverageindustryPEof11.6x,whichismorethanjustifiedbySECB'shighROE.
1XPBR

PROPERTY
AYALALAND
FILINVESTLAND
MEGAWORLD
ROBINSONSLAND
SMDEVELOPMENT
SMPRIMEHOLDINGS

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Sell
Hold

32.3xaveragePEsince2004
FLI'shistoricalaveragePEof12.7x
MEG'shistoricalaveragePEof12.8x
RLC'shistoricalaveragePE.
MarketPEonpostFOO2011epsof0.76.PremiumtoindustryandmarketjustifiedbyhighROE,EPSgrowth&brandfranchise
SMPHtradedatanaverageof18.8xPEfrom2008andahighof22.5

HOLDINGCOMPANIES
AYALACORP.
ABOITIZEQUITY
ALLIANCEGLOBAL
DMCIHOLDINGS
JGSUMMIT
METROPACIFIC
SMINVESTMENTS

Buy2
Buy1
Buy1
Buy2
Buy2
Buy2
Sell

20xhistoricalaveragePEsince2004.
MarketPE.
BasedonhisoricalPEof12.9x.
MarketPE.PremiumjustifiedbyabovemarketROE
11xPE,belowAGI'sduetolowerROE
HistoricalaveragePBRof1.4x
HistoricalaveragePEof14.1x

CONSUMER
JOLLIBEEFOODS
SMC
UNIVERSALROBINA

Sell
Buy1
Sell

20.2historicalaveragePE
1xPBR
MarketPE

MEDIA
ABSCBN
GMA7

Buy1
Hold

13xPE,discounttomarket
HistoricalaveragePEof11.7x

TELECOMS
GLOBETELECOM
PHIL.LONGDISTANCE

Hold
Buy1

HistoricalaveragePEof12.8x
HistoricalaveragePEof12.4x

POWER
ABOITIZPOWER
ENERGYDEVELOPMENT
FIRSTGEN
MERALCO

Buy1
Buy1
Hold
Hold

MarketPE
Biggestcappowerstock,iffreefloatadjusted.ImpliedPEof17.5xatTPstillbelowhistoricalaveragePEof29x
1xPBR
BasedonhistoricalaveragePEof22.8

MINING
PHILEX
SEMIRARAMINING

Buy2
Buy1

DCFanalysisassuming10%annualgrowthingold&copperprices.
15xPE.PremiumjustifiedbyabovemarketROE.

Sell
Buy1

DCFanalysis
12xhisoricalaveragePE

OTHERS
ICTSI
MANILAWATER
PSEi/BASKET