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September 18, 2008

To: Interested Parties


Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt
Re: Summary of Polling in Illinois CD-11
Democrat Debbie Halvorson continues to lead the open-seat race for Congress in Illinois’ 11th
District, but this Republican-held seat remains extremely competitive, and Halvorson will need
significant financial resources to maintain her lead against multi-millionaire Marty Ozinga.

Halvorson currently leads Ozinga by 8 points

• Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 43% to 35% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason
Wallace at 6%. Her lead is 8 points, but she still needs several points of expansion in
order to win.

• Halvorson has maintained her vote share since May (43% Halvorson / 32% Ozinga). The
small amount of movement in Ozinga’s vote is within the poll’s margin of error, in spite of
his strong spending on television ads (more than $400,000) and his extensive direct mail
program, which has included more than ten pieces and has been heavily negative.

• Halvorson’s television buy is doing a good job of expanding her personal popularity, but
she needs the resources to sustain it. She currently receives a 38% favorable / 20%
unfavorable rating – an increase of 14 points in her favorable rating since May. While
Halvorson’s ratio of favorables to unfavorables is nearly 2:1, Ozinga’s unfavorable rating is
nearly as high as his favorable rating (28% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

The political environment is competitive, and Halvorson must have the resources to continue
communicating in order to win

• The generic ballot in this district is virtually even (38% Democrat / 40% Republican).
Those numbers are better than you’d expect in a Republican-held district, but a Democrat
like Halvorson must still build personal definition and strength in order to win. Paid
communications in this expensive media market are essential.
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11.
Interviews were conducted between September 14-16, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned
geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.