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4 (84)

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. :

15

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(
)
.

23

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44

. (1991 .)

55

62

In Memoriam

63

64
65
67

I. ""
II. ,
List of Questions for the General Population
SUMMARY

115
117

4 (84)
July-August 2006
CONTENTS

PRINCIPAL TRENDS

ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION


The Burden of an Alleged Choice (Yury LEVADA)

Was Another Road Possible? Familiar and Unfamiliar Alternatives


(Tatiana VOROZHEIKINA)

15

Money and Power in Public Opinion of the Russians.


Article Two. Institutional immmoralism of Elite and Power
(Lev GUDKOV)

23

Perception of the Migration Scale in Russia:


Ethno>Regional Measurements and Psychology of Figures
(Michael ALEXEYEV)

44

Levada!Center Archive. Vadim Sazonov


about the Characters of GKChP
(State Committee of the Marshall Law)

55

Authors of the issue

62

In Memoriam

63

INFORMATION: SURVEYS FINDINGS

64
65
67

I. Technical Notes
II. Attitudes, Opinions and Evaluations of the Population
List of Questions for the General Population
SUMMARY

115
117

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1 .: Oliver J.E., Wong J.
Intergroup Prejudice in Multiethnic Settings // American Journal of
Political Science. 2003. Vol. 47. N 4. Oct. P. 567582; . : Ibid.
P. 567568; . : Palmer D.L. Canadian Attitudes and Per
ceptions Regarding Immigration: Relations with Regional per Capita
Immigration and other Contextual Factors // Executive Summary,
Strategic Research and Review, Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
1999. Aug. <http:www.cic.gc.ca>; Quillian L. Prejudice as a Response
to Perceived Group Threat: Population Composition and AntiImmi
grant and Racial Prejudice in Europe // American Sociological Review.
1995. Vol. 60. P. 590; Citrin J., Green D.P., Muste Ch., Wong C.
Public Opinion Toward Immigration Reform: The Role of Economic
Motivations // The Journal of Politics. 1997. Vol. 59. N 3. Aug.
P. 858881.
2 .: Teitelbaum M.S., Winter J. A Question of Numbers: High
Migration, Low Fertility, and the Politics of National Identity. N.Y.:
Hill and Wang, 1998; Challenging Immigration and Ethnic Relations
Politics: Comparative European Perspectives / Ed. K.Ruud,
P.Statham. N.Y.: Oxford University Press, 2000.
3 .: Kim C.J. The Racial Triangulation of Asian Americans //
Politics and Society. 1999. Vol. 27. N 1. P. 105158; Oboler S.
Ethnic Labels, Latino Lives. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota
Press, 1995; Jones F.L. Diversities of National Identity in a Mul
ticultural Society: The Australian Case // National Identities. 2000.
Vol. 2. N 2. July. P. 175186.
4 .: Codagnone C. New Migration and Migration Politics in
PostSoviet Russia // Ethnobarometer Programme. Working Paper.
N 2. 1998. CSS/CEMES, .

44


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19892002 . (%)

95563
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7997
14465
12801
14651
39660
2493
1941
180
11944
274566
25589
2864
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45301
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2002 . (%)

2002 .
()

MOWAZR
20727
MOWARM 43989
MOWKAZ
8225
MOWCHE
2101
MOWCHI
372
MOSAZR
5974
MOSARM
9245
MOSKAZ
3145
MOSCHE
664
MOSCHI
42
KRRAZR
11363
KRRARM 182217
KRRTAT
17213
KRRCHE
1801
KRRTRK
2135
VOGKAZ
41505
VOGUZB
2851
VOGCHE
11140
VOGCHI
33
OREKAZ
111477
OREUZB
1746
ORECHE
1159
ORECHI
27
TTNAZR
3915
TTNARM
1815
TTNUZB
2692
TTNCHE
272
PKKOR
8454
PKTAT
20211
PKCHE
459
PKCHI
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PKVTM
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41,3
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137,2
87,4
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0,999

349

469

2,0

454

5,8

316

224
0,78

59,1
69,4
1

334
* = 0,05, .. 5%.

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.

52

4 (84) 2006

4


" " 2005 .

.

.

.
/

613
596
609
627
355
587
376

( 1 5)
2,6
2,6
2,6
2,8
2,8
3,0
3,0
3,0
3,0
3,0
3,2
1,00
0,23
0,06
0,09
= 510

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.

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4 (84) 2006



15 , 
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):

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4 (84) 2006

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1991 ., N=1000 )

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41
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.,
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57


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.
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. 1991 . 52%
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4 (84) 2006

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).

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1921 [1991 .],
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4 (84) 2006

59

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4 (84) 2006

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4 (84) 2006

61

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,
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.

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(19381995 .) ,
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:
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62

4 (84) 2006

In Memoriam

(10 1949 . 8 2006 .)

. . .., 1991 .
,
.
.. , , .
" 19942005:
" (, 2005, ,
). ,
,
.
,
, .

4 (84) 2006

63

:
I. ""
II. ,
. ( 1994 . 2006 .)
. , , ( 2006 .)
. 
( 2006 .)
. ,
, ( 2006 .)
.
( 2006 .)
. , ,
( 2006 .)
.
2004 . 2003 . ( 2006 .)
. (
, 2000 . 2006 .)

67
74
80
86
91
97
104
111

64

1993III

3990

19.03

1.04

1993IV

3992

12.04

12.05

1993V

3919

17.05

16.06

1993VI
1993VII

3918
3973

1.06

11.07

10.07

1993VIII 3924
1993IX
1993
1993XI
1993XII


1995VII

2549

4.07

21. 07

1995IX

2392

10.09

1.10

1995XI

2551

12.11

6.12

2426
2328

12.01.96 .

31.01

9.08

1996I
1996III

12.03

27.03

1.08

31.08

1996V

2405

6.05

24.05

3981

9.09

4.10

1996VII

2404

1.07

27.07

4001
3959

4.10

4.11

29.09

5.12

2430
2399

6.09

1.11

1996IX
1996XI

1.11

21.11

3933

10.12

3.01.94 .

1997I

2406

7.01.97 .

29.01

1994I

3977

10.01

2.02

1997III

2395

14.03

2.04

1994III
1994IV

3776
2935

3.03

2.04

1.06

7.05

2401
2322

11.05

16.04

1997V
1997VII

4.07

27.07

1994V

2975

30.06
6.07

1997IX

2407

30.09
1.12

1994VI

2958

12.05
3.06

1997XI

2401

11.09
10.11

1994VII

2957

1.07

15.08

1998I

2410

14.01.98 .

1.02

1994IX

2959

12.09

10.10

1998III

2408

17.03

30.03

1994XI

2957

10.11

9.12

1998V

2407

17.05

30.05

1995I

1989

10.01.95 .

5.02

1998VII

2407

17.07

31.07

1995III

1980

10.03

3.04

1998IX

2408

17.09

31.09

1995V

2550

10.05

31.05

1998XI

2409

17.11

31.11

4 (84) 2006



1999I

2406


12.01.99 .
28.01


2002IX

2106

31.08

16.09

1999III

2385

6.03

22.03

2002XI

2106

30.10

18.11

1999V

2431

5.05

26.05

2003I

2107

10.01.2003 .

28.01

1999VII
1999IX

2407
2409

8.07

24.07

19.03

19.09

2107
2107

01.03

1.09

2003III
2003V

01.05

21.05

1999XI

2388

1.11

19.11

2003VII

2107

01.07

15.07

2000I

2407

6.01.2000 .

26.01

2003I

2093

01.09

25.09

2000III
2000V

2407
2407

13.03

19.03

24.11

19.05

2112
2110

30.10

29.04

2003I
2004I

8.01.2004 .

28.01

2000VII

2409

17.07
14.09

2107

2405

30.06
30.08

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2000IX

2004V

2107

01.03
01.05

13.03
22.05

2000XI

2404

1.11

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2108

01.07

15.07

2001I

2410

4.01.2001 .

21.01

2004IX

2107

01.09

15.09

2001III

2409

01.03

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2107

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2001V

2407

02.05

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2001VII

2407

05.07

27.07

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2107 2.01.2005 .
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2107

2001IX

2414

30.08

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2107

01.05

18.05

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2447

03.11

25.11

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2107

01.07

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2106

30.12

20.01.2002 .

2005IX

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2107

27.02.2002 .

17.03

2006I

2002V

2107

04.05

28.05

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2107 4.01.2006 .
01.03
2107

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2107

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2107

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16.11
23.01
16.03

20.01
14.03
18.05

I. ""
1. (: " ?").
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(() / , ,
); (() 34
1991 . 23 1991 .; ,
);
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(() , ,
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(, ,
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4 (84) 2006

65

, (, , ),
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66

:
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2407 (, , "", 2107 , ""
300 ), ,
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,
).
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1,1424 = 2407/2107, ), ,
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1, 2, 3 2006 .

4 (84) 2006

II. ,
. ( 1994 . 2006 .)

( % )

1994 . 1995 . 1996 . 1997 . 1998 . 1999 . 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 .

2957

2107

2104

2022

2107

2107

2005 .

2006 .

2107

2107

2107

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,

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67

1.
2.
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5
48
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9
56
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9
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13

68

1994 . 1995 . 1996 . 1997 . 1998 . 1999 . 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 .

2957

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70

1994 . 1995 . 1996 . 1997 . 1998 . 1999 . 2000 . 2001 . 2002 . 2003 . 2004 .

2957

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2006 .

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List of Questions for the General Population

(Page numbers in brackets indicate where opinions and characteristics of various groups of population are presented)

9. What could you say about your mood in the recent days? 1) Excellent mood; 2) Normal, calm condition;
3) I experience strain, irritation; 4) I feel fear, distress; 5) Difficult to answer. (67, 74, 80, 86, 91, 97, 104, 111)
9a. Speaking in general to what extent are you satisfied with the life you are leading now? 1) Quite satisfied;
2) Mainly satisfied; 3) Partly satisfied, partly not; 4) Mainly not satisfied; 5) Not satisfied at all; 6) Difficult to
answer. (74, 80, 86, 91, 97, 104)
10. How would you evaluate the financial position of your family at present? 1)Very good; 2) Good; 3) Average;
4) Bad; 5) Very bad; 6) Difficult to answer. (67, 74, 80, 86, 91, 97, 104, 111)
11. How would you evaluate the economic situation in your town, rural district? 1) Good; 2) Average; 3) Bad;
4) Very bad; 5) Difficult to answer. (68, 74, 80, 86, 91, 98, 105, 111)
12. How would you evaluate the economic situation in Russia? 1) Good; 2) Average; 3) Bad; 4) Very bad; 5) Difficult
to answer. (68, 74, 80, 86, 92, 98, 105, 111)
13. What do you think, which of the statements given below describes better the situation having been developed?
1) Everything is not so bad and its possible to live; 2) Life is difficult but its possible to bear it; 3) Its impossible to
bear our disastrous situation any longer; 4) Difficult to answer. (68, 75, 81, 87, 92, 99, 105, 112)
13A. What do you think, will you (your family) live better or worse then now in a year? 1) Better to a great extent;
2) Somewhat better; 3) The same matter as now; 4) Somewhat worse; 5) Worse to a great extent; 6) Difficult to
answer. (69, 75, 81, 87, 92, 99, 106, 112)
13B. Which of the following statements most exactly describes your attitude to the present life? 1) "I simply cant
adapt to the present life"; 2) "Ive got accustomed to the fact that I had to refuse from customary way of life, to
live, limiting myself in great and small"; 3) I have to "spin", seize upon any opportunity to earn only to provide a
tolerable life for my family and me"; 4) "I succeeded in using new opportunities to achieve more in life"; 5) "I live
in the same way as before: nothing has particularly changed for me in the recent years"; 6) Difficult to answer.
(69, 75, 81, 87, 93, 99, 106, 112)
14. What do you think, market reforms should be continued now or ceased? 1) Market reforms should be continued;
2) Market reforms should be ceased; 3) I dont know, its difficult to answer. (70, 76, 82, 88, 93, 99, 107, 112)
19. How would you evaluate the political situation in Russia in general? 1) Safe, good; 2) Calm; 3) Strained;
4) Critical, explosive; 5) Difficult to answer. (76, 82, 88, 93, 99, 107)
20. Generally speaking, how much are you now satisfied with your life? 1) Quite satisfied; 2) Rather satisfied; 3) Partly
satisfied, partly not; 4) Rather unsatisfied; 5) Not satisfied at all; 6) Dont know. (67, 111)
22. What do you think, will our life improve more or less during the coming year or there will be no improvement? 1) Will
improve; 2) There will be no improvement; 3) Difficult to answer. (70, 76, 82, 88, 93, 100, 107, 113)
26. How would you evaluate from 1 to 10 the activity of V.Putin as the President of Russia? (76, 82, 88, 93, 100, 107)
26*. How would you rate on a scale from 1 to 10 the performance of Boris Yeltsin as Russias president/Vladimir
Putin as acting president/Vladimir Putin as Russias president? Average on the scale. (71, 113)
27. How would you evaluate from 1 to 10 the activity of M.Fradkov, chairman of the minister cabinet? (76, 82, 88,
93, 100, 107)
27*. How would you evaluate from 1 to 10 the activity of chairman of the minister cabinet? (71, 113)
28. What do you think, what awaits Russia in the nearest months in the political life? 1) Considerable improvement of
the situation; 2) Some improvement of the situation; 3) Some change of the situation to the worse; 4) Consider
able change of the situation to the worse; 5) Difficult to answer. (71, 76, 82, 88, 93, 100, 107, 113)
29. What do you think, what awaits Russia in the nearest months in the economic life? 1) Considerable improvement of the
situation; 2) Some improvement of the situation; 3) Some change of the situation to the worse; 4) Considerable change
of the situation to the worse; 5) Difficult to answer. (71, 76, 83, 88, 93, 100, 107, 113)
32. What do you think, to what extent mass violence of the population against the decrease of the living standard
and for the defense of their rights is possible now in your town/rural district? 1) Quite possible; 2) Hardly
possible; 3) I dont know, difficult to answer. (71, 76, 83, 88, 94, 101, 107, 113)
33. If such rallies and protest demonstrations happen, will you personally take part in them? 1) Most probably yes;
2) Most probably no; 3) Dont know. (71, 77, 83, 88, 94, 101, 107, 113)
33c. Is the protest movement with political demands possible in your town/rural district? 1) Quite possible; 2) Hardly
possible; 3) I dont know, difficult to answer. (71, 77, 83, 89, 94, 101, 107, 113)
35. How much money does your family need now per capita month to lead a normal, to your idea, life? (73, 79, 85,
90, 96, 103, 110, 114)
37. The income that would provide in respondents opinion the "the minimum living standard"? (73, 79, 85, 90,
96, 103, 110, 114)

115

4 (84) 2006

42. To speak of the major purchases for the family (such as furniture, refrigerator, household electronics, TV set)
do you think this is on the whole a good or a bad time now for such purchases? 1) Good; 2) Neither good nor
bad; 3) Bad; 4) Difficult to answer. (72, 78, 84, 90, 95, 103, 109)
43. To speak in general, do you think this is a bad or a good time now to save up money? 1) Good; 2) Neither good
nor bad; 3) Bad; 4) Difficult to answer. (73, 78, 84, 90, 96, 103, 110)
C8. If you had (youve got) some savings in what way would you prefer to use them now? 1) Would prefer to spend
the savings on expensive purchases; 2) Would partially spend the savings and partially keep them; 3) Would
prefer to keep the savings; 4) Difficult to answer. (77, 83, 89, 94, 101, 108)
C9. Do you think it is a good time now for expensive purchases on credit or under the present circumstances it is
better not to borrow, not to take credit for these purposes? 1) It is a good time now to buy on credit, to borrow;
2) Neither one nor the other; 3) Under the present circumstances it is better not to borrow, not to take credit for
expensive purchases; 4) Difficult to answer. (77, 83, 89, 95, 101, 109)
C11. Do you think it is a good or bad time now on the whole to buy a dwelling (a house, an apartment)? 1) Good;
2) Neither good nor bad; 3) Bad; 4) Dont know difficult to answer. (77, 83, 89, 95, 101, 109)
C13. Do you think it is a good or bad time now on the whole to buy a car? 1) Good; 2) Neither good nor bad; 3) Bad;
4) Dont know difficult to answer. (77, 84, 89, 95, 102, 109)
C14. Do you think it is a good or bad time now on the whole to buy a computer? 1) Good; 2) Neither good nor bad;
3) Bad; 4) Dont know difficult to answer. (78, 84, 89, 95, 102, 109)
C31. Do you think there will the same number of unemployed (people who dont have a job and are looking for it) or less
in the next 12 months? 1) More; 2) About the same; 3) Less; 4) Difficult to answer. (77, 83, 89, 94, 101, 108)
L15. How has the financial situation of your family changed during the last year? 1) Rather improved; 2) Remained
the same; 3) Rather got worse; 4) Difficult to answer. (72, 78, 84, 89, 95, 102, 109, 113)
L16. How do you think the financial situation of your family will change in the nearest year? 1) Rather will improve; 2) Will
remain the same; 3) Rather will get worse; 4) Difficult to answer. (72, 78, 84, 90, 95, 102, 109, 113)
L33. Which of the following population groups would you rather ascribe yourself to? 1) We hardly make both ends meet,
there is not enough money even for food; 2) There is enough money for food but clothes buying causes serious difficulties;
3) There is enough money for food and clothes but buying the durable goods (TVset, refrigerator, etc.) is difficult for us; 4) We
can easily buy durable goods. To buy really expensive things is difficult for us; 5) We can afford rather expensive
purchases apartments, dacha and many others. (70, 77, 83, 89, 94, 101, 108, 112)
L88. To speak of the economical situation of the country on the whole, do you think the following 12 months will be a good
or a bad time for the country economy? 1) Good; 2) Good, but not in everything; 3) Neither good, nor bad; 4) Bad,
but not in everything; 5) Bad; 6) Difficult to answer. (72, 78, 84, 90, 95, 102, 109, 113)
L88a. To speak of the following five years, will they be a good or a bad time for the country economy? 1) Good;
2) Neither good nor bad; 3) Bad; 4) Difficult to answer. (72, 78, 84, 90, 95, 103, 109, 113)
LL10. What do you think, since what average monthly money income per capita a family may be considered a rich
one? (73, 79, 85, 90, 96, 103, 110, 114)
LL11. What do you think, with what average monthly money income at the rate for one person a family may be
considered poor one? (73, 79, 85, 90, 96, 103, 110, 114)
1f. What stratum of the society would you rather ascribe yourself to? 1) To the lowest one; 2) To the workers; 3) To
the lowest part of the middle stratum; 4) To the middle part of the middle strata; 5) To the higher stratum;
6) Difficult to answer. (68, 74, 80, 86, 91, 97, 105, 111)
6+10. General respondents earnings during the last month. (73, 79, 85, 90, 96, 103, 110, 114)
10. How much money did you personally earn for extra work during the last month? (73, 79, 85, 90, 96, 103, 110, 114)
15b:5. Average income per capita during the last month: (79, 85, 90, 96, 103, 110)
25:5. Average per capita income: (73, 114)
29. What mark on the scale from 1 to 10 wouls you give to your position in the society? (1 high; 10 low)? (114)
S1. Do you think things in Russia are going today in the right or in the wrong direction? 1) In the right direction;
2) In the wrong direction; 3) Difficult to answer. (75, 81, 86, 92, 98, 105)
S2. Do you approve of V.Putins activity as the President of Russia? 1) Undoubtedly yes; 2) Rather yes; 3) Rather
no; 4) Undoubtedly no; 5) Difficult to answer. (75, 81, 87, 92, 98, 105)
S3. Do you approve of the activity of the present Russias Government? 1) Undoubtedly yes; 2) Rather yes;
3) Rather no; 4) Undoubtedly no; 5) Difficult to answer. (75, 81, 87, 92, 98, 105)
S5. Do you think your life, the life of your family has become better, worse or hasnt changed during recent year?
1) Much better/somewhat better; 2) Hasnt changed; 3) Somewhat worse; 4) Much worse; 5) Difficult to
answer. (75, 81, 87, 92, 99, 105)
S6. Speaking of the country on the whole do you think the life in Russia will be better or worse than now? 1) Much
better/somewhat better; 2) The same as now; 3) Somewhat worse; 4) Much worse; 5) Difficult to answer. (75,
81, 87, 93, 99, 106)
S13. Do you think the present Government of Russia will be able to improve the situation in the country during the
next year? 1) Undoubtedly yes/ rather yes; 2) Rather no; 3) Undoubtedly no; 4) Difficult to answer. (76, 82, 88,
93, 100, 107)

4 (84) 2006

116

SUMMARY

1. The Burden of an Alleged Choice (by Yury


Levada). Tension caused by "the problem of 2008"
doesnt correspond at first sight to the extreme simplicity of the forthcoming electoral procedure with
guaranteed outcome. But both the mechanism of
preparation for such elections and their consequences are far from being simple. The key issue of
the political transition which is about to happen is
not the replacement of persons but the change (or
lack of change) of socio-political regime of the present type.
During recent year the society is offered the versions of exclusively conditional choice between
"Putin" (the alternative of prolongation of the present President term), "other Putin" (an appointed
successor) and "non-Putin" ("principally different"
candidate, the opponent of the present President).
The very fact of strict keeping in secret the name of
already prepared person means therefore not only
the full confidence of "the top" in the readiness of
the subjects to accept any appointed person but also
a fear of the elections procedure turning into a matter of public choice.
The data of the recent survey allow us to compare
the wishes of the respondents concerning the social
environment from which a Presented should be
elected and their suppositions as to from where
V.Putin will choose his successor. For public opinion only two sources from which a successor may
appear are actually important: V.Putins environment and "independent politicians". But according
to the majority of respondents opinions V.Putins
scope of choice is still narrower: his immediate environment and much more seldom the officials from
government or FSB.
One can observe great discrepancies between
mass wishes concerning the criteria of "a successor"
choice on the one hand and the notions of how
V.Putin will act on the other hand. For public opinion the main criteria are the moral qualities of a
successor but V.Putin is expected to take into account first of all his confidence in and closeness to
his favorite. The respondents readiness to accept
forcedly V/Putins choice doesnt mean the readiness to accept the criteria of such choice.
117

The election campaign planned for March 2008


wont bring any unexpected events either to its organizers or to mass participants and its observers.
But this procedure may mean only a moment in
preparation of inevitable large-scale socio-historical
changes.
2. Was another Road Possible? Familiar and Unfamiliar Alternatives (by Tatiana Vorozheikina).
Considering the socio-political situation in Russia
to be devoid of any alternatives has become a dominant view over the past 15 years and has turned into
a self-fulfilling prophecy directed towards both the
past and the present. Meanwhile, the history of
these past 15 years was anything but alternativeless.
The country traversed several obvious bifurcation
points 19911993, 1996, and 19981999 when
the road taken was not the only possible one. Neither was this road predetermined by history or by the
operation of objective natural forces. The choices
were made by those in power and thus they were
subjective choices.
Russian history (after the fall of the Soviet
Union) reached the decisive bifurcation point in
1991-1993. The choice was then made in favor of
developing capitalism "from above" through the
conversion of power into property. The foregone option was to develop it "from below" through the creation of favorable conditions for small- and mediumscale private property, which could have developed
alongside the state sector, gradually pushing it out of
the most lucrative spheres of economic activity. This
choice was reciprocated in the political sphere, where
the existing administrative structures were used to attain the economic goals of market liberalization and
state property privatization as fast as possible. The
long road of the democratic transformation of power
was rejected in the name of velocity and depth of the
economic transformation. This longer road would
have required constant readjusting and reconciling
of interests through political compromises and
would have led to a decidedly different fate for the
Russian large-scale private property holdings. These
holdings were created through the direct conversion
of power into property under the aegis of the state or

4 (84) 2006

through deals with its individual representatives,


and the method of their creation proved to be much
more important for the future of these holdings than
the speed of their creation or their size. By the
middle of 2000s this method also made possible the
transition of this property into the hands of those
groups that privatized the Russian state.
The plebiscitary election of Vladimir Putin to the
presidency of Russian Federation has greatly reduced the number of available developmental pathways. An alternative pathway could have emerged
from the actions of interest groups opposing the
supreme power in its policy of systematically reestablishing vertical controls in all spheres and of
eliminating any and all independent centers of political, economic, and social activity. However, the
case of M. Khodorkovsky remains the only case of
any kind of serious resistance to this policy in more
than six years of Putins stay in power. The real or
illusory benefits of subordination proved to be much
higher than the costs of resistance.
By its very nature the deinstitutionalization of the
political system that took place in the first half of the
2000s prevents any alternatives from emerging by
depriving them of substance in advance. The state
power creates structures that imitate opposition and
civil society and imitates the fight against corruption
and threat of fascism thus depriving the real opposition of any serious crystallization potential. Neither
is this kind of power capable of generating any developmental alternatives from its own midst. In this
sense Russias current situation reproduces a very
tragic predicament that has occurred multiple times
throughout Russian history. The system cannot be
reformed from inside it eventually forces itself
into a dead-end by basing its relations with society
on vertical structures of control and management.
On the other hand, a fast and radical demolition of
such a system also proves utterly unhelpful in overcoming its path-dependency. Over the course of the
20th century this kind of demolition has been attempted twice at its beginning and at its end
and has both times resulted in the regeneration of
the top-down type of relationship between state and
society. The current power configuration is not balanced by a developmental alternative originating
from outside the power system. An obvious and
growing instability of the latter threatens to produce
yet another collapse and to result in yet another turn
of the old vicious circle.
The more urgent is, therefore, the need to produce a developmental alternative outside of the
power system in todays Russia. The institutes of
political democracy must include the interests of the
majority of the population in order to acquire a
minimal degree of sustainability and to avoid being

destroyed as they were in the 1990s. Democracy in


Russia is not possible without the integration of
social demands of those who are made redundant
both as producers and as consumers in the model of
economic development aligned almost exclusively
with the needs of the global energy markets. Without
the integration of these social strata and without due
consideration given to their interests, which are
often anti-liberal, any democratic structure will be
rootless and any process of democratization reversible. On the other hand, the market cannot be
fully functional and the property rights cannot be
guaranteed without democracy. This is the only way
towards the creation of modern society in Russia.
3. Money and Power in Public Opinion of the
Russians. Article Two. Institutional immmoralism
of Elite and Power (by Lev Gudkov). Failure of the
reforms in Russia is connected with the inertia of
reproduction of a considerable part of totalitarian
institutions that survived from the Soviet times (the
law-court, the army, political police FSB, the
educational system) and provide keeping up the
main principle of Constitution and Russian power
organization: from top to bottom when top authorities choose for themselves convenient executors and
are not responsible to anybody, including the society. Artificial transplantation of democratic forms
from outside (elections, many-party system, Parliament, independence of the Law-court, etc.) under
the conditions of the absence of real political culture
of democracy, of weakness of civil society leads
only to the expression of the most wide-spread and
therefore the most conservative dispositions of
population which is still oriented at the principles of
the state paternalism, at the necessity of preserving
the former forms of social security, guarantee of job
and free dwelling, health service, and education.
Therefore the State power in Russia that has survived the collapse of the Soviet system turns out to
be in a difficult situation of choice between the
extreme necessity of carrying out the reforms with
the prospect of loosing the support of the population
and refusal from the reforms. Since 1993 B.Yeltsins
Government had found the way out by relying not
on the organization of the civil society and democratic Parties but on the old institutions of political
police and the army and eventually turned out to be
the hostage of these forces and gave up the power to
their representative V.Putin who establishes
authoritarian police regime in Russia and curtails
the reforms. Population dissatisfaction with their
living standards and loss of whatsoever hopes for
change of the present situation leads to mass alienation from politics and the spreading of cynicism and
political apathy.

4 (84) 2006

118

4. Perception of the Migration Scale in Russia:


Ethno-Regional Measurements and Psychology of
Figures (by Michael Alexeyev). The findings of
wide-scale survey are analyzed (the number of respondents in all the regions is 4740 persons) which
was designed and planned for demystification of
mass ideas about migration, namely: how and why
particular people overstate or understate rates of
migration of various ethnic groups. The character
and types of overstating the rates of migration of
various ethnic groups and regions produce a paradoxical impression. Neither the place of respondents residence in Russia, nor ethnic origin of migrants, nor the migration scope fixed by the State
statistical agencies explain the variations in the levels of migration of various ethnic groups perceived
by population in their places of residence. Variations
cannot be explained by any combination of the three
factors listed. Evaluations of the scale of migration
are systematically overestimated. It concerns
mainly: a) overstating the share of the Chinese and
the Chechens in comparison with the shares of other
ethnic groups of migrants in the population of all
regions of the survey; b) a higher degree of uncertainty in the evaluation of the number of migrants
from Asia (the Chinese, the Kazakhs, the Uzbeks)
in comparison with the migrants from the Caucasus
(the Chechens, the Armenians, the Azerbaijanis);
c) overstating the share of ethnic migrants in Moscow region in comparison with relatively less overstating the share of migrants in Moscow and in comparison with other survey regions. All these dependences are compatible with the logics of perception of
figures ("psychology of figures") and the logics of

119

"protected community" (a wish to take preventive


measures in front of a new threat under the conditions of an increased feeling of uncertainty). The
logics of "the protected community" at the regions
level appears to be the logics of "protected national
State" at the overall state level.
5. Levada-Center Archive. Vadim Sazonov about
the Characters of GKChP (State Committee of the
Marshall Law). Three small paper articles are published in this Section written by one of the fellow
workers of VCIOM of those times in the first
months after the events of August 1991. Vadim Vassilyevich Sazonov (19381995) is one of a few persons who considered it his duty to show to the interested public "the miracle of the society", the findings
of the public opinion surveys which had been carried out by VCIOM, practically the only all-Russian
research collective at that time. The articles published
concern the attitude to the main participants of those
events: M.Gorbachev, B.Yeltsin, V.Kryuchkov who
appeared to be the leading actors on the political
stage of those months, understanding and the character of the roles they had managed to play then,
and the prospects of the country development
after GKChP failure, the probability of preserving
or the directions of possible transformations of the
USSR.
6. Information: Surveys Findings
I. Technical Notes
II. Attitudes, Opinions and Evaluations of the
Population (May, 2006)

4 (84) 2006



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