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1

SIEMS

:
. , PhD (
SIEMS
nicolas.depetris@dsg.ac.ae)
:
, PhD (spark@skolkovo.org)

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() Thomson Financial.
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E-mail: nicolas.depetris@dsg.ac.ae. , , .
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SIEMS Issue Report

I. :
II.

7
15

III. :
IV.
V.

21
53
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, ,
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, , ,
,
. .
, , . 1, ,
2005 , (
1). , 1999
,
,
. :
22,6%
19972001 116% 20012005 .
, 1997 34 , 2005 99,5 . 2008
, 2009 , 378 ( 2001 ),
.

, ,
74%
19972005 . 20012005 , 95%

( 2).
,
1/ ( B).

: / SIEMS

1.
, 19972009 ( )
1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

76.7

-123.8

-204.7

-194.5

-305.8

-432.2

-188.9

-140.7

-301.7

-384.6

-522.1

-754.8

-718.1

-378.4

96.8

114.6

87.8

136.2

165.8

210.5

142.2

120.6

63.3

92.1

191.4

283.2

75.4

47.3

-48.6

-11.4

15.6

26.3

93.1

20.1

63.2

-27.2

6.5

-8.6

56.9

154.9

357.2

284.2

-14.9

-12.8

-0.5

8.5

3.0

44.6

48.9

14.0

141.5

198.2

102.8

54.8

10.3

-207.4

: International Financial Statistics (


)

, .
,
7 ( ), 2,8 1997 19,9
2005 .
: ( 2002 ) 110%
19972005
. ,
2004 2005
, .
1 2006 .
. 63,7%
, (7,4%) (4,1%). .
, 2006
.
,
, . -

10

2.
, 19972005
( )
( )

1997-2005

1997-2001

2001-2005

-352.0

-281.3

-70.7

( % )

146.2%

79.3%

412.5%

20.6%

8.0%

70.9%

17.3%

12.6%

35.8%

16.4%

5.4%

60.4%

13.3%

10.3%

25.4%

-35.2%

-3.7%

-160.2%

-21.7%

-3.1%

-95.8%

-12.0%

6.6%

-86.0%

-7.6%

1.9%

-45.1%

-8.6%

-5.7%

-20.2%

-8.4%

-8.8%

-6.8%

-20.4%

-2.7%

-90.9%

( )

300.1

88.2

211.9

-5.7%

6.9%

-11.0%

-1.9%

3.1%

-4.0%

( % )

34.0%

-25.8%

58.9%

24.8%

37.5%

19.6%
16.6%

15.1%

11.5%

8.0%

15.3%

5.0%

6.2%

-2.4%

9.7%

6.0%

10.6%

4.1%

13.5%

43.2%

1.1%

( )

18.7

15.6

3.1

110.8%

11.7%

605.2%

-10.8%

88.3%

-505.2%

( % )

: International Financial Statistics

: / SIEMS

1.
2006 ( )

31%

13%

12%

9%

4%

9%

4%
4%
5%


9%


15%
64%

2%
2%
3%
3%
4%

7%

: International Financial Statistics

11

12

19972009 ,
, . ,
, , ,
, , , ( 2).

500 .
400

y = 1.5451x + 26.853
R2 = 0.94029

300
200
100
0

400

300

200

100

-100

-100

500 .

2.
, 19972009

: International Financial Statistics


3.
, 19972009 ( . )

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

-31.3

-91.9

-202

-50.8

-317.3

-31.4

-38.4

-65.3

-25.7

-7.8

-17.1

-17.1

-141.3

-345.6

-490.9

-10.2

-13.5

-33.5

-73.6

-78.7

: International Financial Statistics

: / SIEMS

3.
, 2000 2005
2005
82.0%

4.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.1%
1.7%
4.8%

2000

1.3%
6.4%

29.6%

: International Financial Statistics

62.7%

13

14

The Productivity Prize Accounting for Recent Economic Growth among the BRICs: Miracle or Mirage?

, ,
2000 ( 3
).
.
2005 ( 207
) 82% , ,
4,1%, 2,7% ( 3). , 2002 , .
, . 2009
400 , 82%
.
,
, 2003 2004 45,2 61,5
, 107 148 2007 2008 . 19972002
8,6 .
, (
), , -,
-
. ,
.
Global Financial Stability Report ( ) 2007 .
, ,

. ,
. ,
, ,
2006 , 2005 28%
.

.

/ SIEMS

15

16

2000 2007 2 (
, , , , )
( 4). , 2008 .
4.
, 19972009 ( )
1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

4,664.3

7,181.8

5,800.8

7,400.2

13,191.0

16,764.3

n/a

254.0

257.5

206.6

263.4

464.2

1,048.1

381.7

263.5

236.2

230.0

237.6

481.5

828.1

413.2

41.8

37.4

39.3

62.3

89.1

257.0

177.5

: International Financial Statistics


,
( 90%
2007 ),
2000 4 .
2007 9% , , 2000
. , :
.
2009
.
91% . 8,1% ,
2000 .
,
.
2/ , , A.

17

/ SIEMS


(
5). , ,
.
, 2003
, .
, ,
,
( , , ) 20032007 10 , ,
( 4 5). 2008
, ,

. , , 2010
, .
5.
, 19972009 ( )
1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

-2.5

86.9

218.7

469.5

332.5

966.0

n/a

89.4

46.0

5.2

41.9

104.1

237.1

-18.5

65.6

3.0

65.5

62.6

126.4

264.3

258.1

14.8

6.6

5.9

9.3

-13.1

86.3

122.5

: International Financial Statistics

,
.
. 80
. , -

18

4.
, 19802005 (
2000 )
2000
1500


,
,

1000
500
0
-500

2009

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

-1000

Source:
IMF WEO
Database

5.

, 19802005 (
2000 )

: World Economic Outlook


( )

2009

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982


,
,

1980

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200

/ SIEMS

19

,
. , ,
2002 , .
-,
2008 , .
20032005
, 56% ,
, 20032005
25% .
, ,
.

20

: / SIEMS

21

22

, , , .
,
. ,
,
. Sauvant
(2007), , , .
,
( )3
,
. ,
,
. , 80
, 2006 , , 174
, 14,3% .
; idem
and Kose (2007), ,
, , 4 : 19852005
14% 25%.
.
, , , 20052009 , , 3/ , .
,
. .
A.30 Global Development Finance ( ) 2006 .
4/ idem and Kose (2007),
, (Emerging Markets Index) MSCI. ,
,
.

: / SIEMS

23

,
. , , ,

, .
- .
Sauvant (2005), , , , , .
Mork, Yeung, and Zhao (2007) ,
,
. World Investment Report
(WIR) ( ) 2007
Thomson Financial.
,
- ,
. , 3 20072009 25 000
,
. Thomson One, , ,
,
.
, , ,
, .
,
, . ,
,
. , WIR 2007
, , .
, , , ,

24

6.
(19892010 )

1989-1991

7,266

453

145

19

7,730

1,342

1992-1994

1995-1997

1998-2000

2001-2003

2004-2006

1,167

708

2007-2009

15,152

6,416

1,650

1,267

2010

4,151

1,974

502

389

362

107

11,538

2,804

533

335

17,239

4,740

628

444

12,176

3,702

655

433

14,114

4,082

:
Thomson One

, , Marone
(2007). , , , . , ,
,
.
, , ,
, . ,
, .
, ,
, .

25

: / SIEMS

6. ,
,19892010

-
100 %
90
80
70
60
50


-
100 %
90
80
70
60

2010

2007-2009

2004-2006

2001-2003

1998-2000

1995-1997

1992-1994

1989-1991

50

:
Thomson One

26

7. ,
19892010

100 %
90
80
70
60
50


100 %
90
80
70
60

2010

2007-2009

2004-2006

2001-2003

1998-2000

1995-1997

1992-1994

1989-1991

50

:
Thomson One

27

: / SIEMS

7.
(19892010 )
.

()
.

355,756

19,366

105(18)

101(15)

53%

58%

5,337

426

73(20)

36(17)

50%

37%

252,652

27,382

78(14)

47(13)

58%

56%

15,437

5,396

70(14)

88(13)

39%

43%

588,205

98,376

121(17)

75(15)

58%

53%

22,047

12,255

70(16)

53(12)

41%

31%

2,287,728

281,692

300(25)

130(18)

56%

54%

33,759

11,545

94(13)

51(10)

43%

49%

1,145,640

147,897

205(22)

80(10)

54%

50%

27,560

19,684

79(10)

94(10)

47%

52%

1,705,661

277,673

259(32)

126(14)

53%

46%

100,497

51,933

182(14)

133(16)

53%

45%

2,066,601

407,841

314(27)

143(16)

57%

54%

176,968

72,416

198(16)

125(16)

46%

54%

329,376

106,259

193(24)

133(13)

59%

59%

41,906

47,423

162(20)

281(18)

49%

57%

1989-1991

1992-1994

1995-1997

1998-2000

2001-2003

2004-2006

2007-2009

2010

:
Thomson One

, WIR ,
,
5, . , , ,
5/
,
,
, (
).

28

8. ,
, 19892010

-
100 %
90
80
70
60
50


-
100 %
90
80
70
60

2010

2007-2009

2004-2006

2001-2003

1998-2000

1995-1997

1992-1994

1989-1991

50

:
Thomson One

29

: / SIEMS

9.
, 19892010

100 %
90
80
70
60
50


100 %
90
80
70
60

2010

2007-2009

2004-2006

2001-2003

1998-2000

1995-1997

1992-1994

1989-1991

50

:
Thomson One

30

. ,
Marone (2007) , ,
, , 3 2004 33%. ,

.
1989 , , , (6). 19891991 6% . 20072009
5 31%, 2010 ,
,
. , : 20072009
12% , 19891991 2% (
6). , -, , : 43,4% 20072009
11,6% 19891991 ; ,
, , ( 7).
2010 ,
, 891, 12,7%
. , 43% , .
,
, ,
( . 7, 8 9).
, , 2007 , ,
, 17,6%
, ;
3
19891991 .
, 2010 29,3% , ,
. ,
, ,
20072009 9,2%

: / SIEMS

31

,
19891991 . 2010 17%,
, , , , .

,
2008 . ,
, ,

.
, .
2008 , 2000 . 2007
, , 2008 , ,
, 15%, , , (
10a). , , ,
9% , , 7% , ( 10b). 2009
, , ,
30%. 2010 , , -, . , , , , .
( 10c 10d) ,
, , .
, 2009
2008 50%. 2010 : -
7%, - 38%, - 39%, - 187%. -

32

10.
(20072010 )
(a) ,
6500

2500

6000
5500
2000

4000
3500
3000

1500
( )

(b) ,
650
600
550
400
350
300
2007

2008

2009

2010

:
Thomson One

33

: / SIEMS

10.
(20072010 )
(c) ,
1000 000

180 000

900 000

160 000

800 000

140 000

700 000

120 000

600 000

100 000

500 000
400 000

80 000

300 000

60 000
( )

(d) ,
85 000
75 000
65 000
55 000
45 000
35 000
25 000
15 000
2007

2008

2009

2010

:
Thomson One

34

(10,7
5,5 ) (7,1
4,8 ).
,

,
.

, ,
,
, , ,
. ?
?
, . , C, Marone (2007).

.
:
- -. ,
, . , , .
,
, ,
, , , .
, - . 90
. ,
- 12
, 1997 , , 2010 . -

: / SIEMS

11.
- (19892010 )
,

8 500 ( )
8 000
7 500
6 000
5 500
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500

,

90%
85
80
75
70
65

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

60

:
Thomson One.
.
. C.

35

36


- 29%, 6 450
, 1997 ,
4 820 , 2010 ( 11).
, , . ,
- 14
, 1997 , , 2010 ,
37% ( 11).
, ,
, .
() ,
. 80 90 ,
. , 19891991 ,
, 164 ,
25 , - 6,6 . , , 3-
2004 1 875 ,
64 ,
29,3 . , ,
, : ,
.
, .
,
- .
, , , ; , , ,
, . , ,
- , 2010 ,
3 869 ,
- -

: / SIEMS

12.
- (19892010 )
,

7 000 ( )
6 500
6 000
5 500
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000

,

80%
77,5
75
72,5
70
67,5
65
62,5

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

60

:
Thomson One.
.
. C.

37

38

. 11 .
- , -, .
, , 2010
, , , 65%, 9 , ,
1996 .
- 38%, 5 683 , 1996 , 3 537
, 2010 ( 12).
- ,
. 1999 39,5% . , 50%
1999
1998 (
-).
, . , ,
, 1,1%.
,
, . , , ,
1999 .
, ,
, ,
, , ,
.
,
, .

, ,
-, -. 20072009 59
, 65

39

: / SIEMS

13a. , , 20072009
(i)
3%
3%

23%

5%

10%

20%

15%
20%

(ii)


13%

13%

25%

9%

6%

5%

22%

7%

:
Thomson One.

40

13b. ,
, 20072009
(i)
12%

48%

7%

11%

8%

6%
5%

4%

(ii)


17%

14%

6%

11%

7%

8%

33%

4%

:
Thomson One.

: / SIEMS

41

.
19891991 , 30 , 25 . ,
-, 20072009
19891991 66 . 2007
: - 491. , 2009 , 320, 2010
389 .
, , ,
. 3
1989 2010 30% 50% -.
- :
2010 49% 75% .
- - ,
20042006 ,
- . 20072009
,
20,2% -,
( 13a-i).
- ,
-, . , 20042006 21,8%
- ,
19,9% .
1,9% , , , , , , - , , ,
.
,
, -
(
13a-ii). 20072009 , , , , ,
-, (21,9%), ,
(12,8%) (9%).
, ,
- 20042006 .

42


-. 3- , 2004 , 11,6%
-, 9,6%
. 2% ,
, , , , , ,
. 20072009 :
(11,6%), (10,6%) (8,3%) 6, ( 13b-i). -,
( 13b). , , , (7,1%) (4,2%), ,
.

, , ,
, ? 14a
, 20072009 . , ,
-:
41,3% 43% .
(17,1%),
(12,6%) , (9,3% 12,6% ).
,
, , , .
( 14b).
, , 9,4% . , 6/ ,
,
, .
, ,
.

43

: / SIEMS

14a. ,
, 20072009
(i)

47%

17%

9%

9%

6%
4%
4%
4%

(ii)


39%

13%

; 12%

10%

4%
5%

10%
6%

:
Thomson One.

44

14b. ,
, 20072009
(i)
9%
5%
4%
63%
5%

5%

4%
4%

(ii)
8%
5%
5%

51%

10%

8%

7%
5%

:
Thomson One.

: / SIEMS

45

5,4%. ,
, , , 4% ,
. , , (10,4%), -
(8,5%), (8,2%) (7,4%).

, , , - ,
.
, , ,
.
8a-d, , -, - -. 9a-d , .
8a - .
: (17,9%), (17,8%) (11,2%).
- (15,4%,
20,9% 15,8% ) - (15%, 21,3% 15% ) ( 8b 8c). ,
-,
15,4% , , .
1989-1990
7,7% -, ,
( 8d).

, . 19891990
47%
-, 52,2% - 51,3% -.
2009-2010 36,8%, 47% 49,8% . , , 19891990 23,1% -,

46

44,6% .
, , .

, .

-, . ,
.
- 50 .

, 20092010 16,1%
. , 20072008 , ( 8a).
, , , ( 8b). ,
,
. 20092010
19,7% ,
. ,
1011% ,
.

, . , ,
- -.
-
( 8c) -. ,
2000 ,
, , -

: / SIEMS

47

. ,
,
-, -,
. ,
, 2008 , -,
-
20072008 20092010 , ,
, .
- , . 19891990
, . -
, 19992000
20092010 . , ,
.
, .
,
- , . , ,
,
.
, ,
, . , , .
, ,
- , -, , ,
, , . , , 40,3% 38,8%
, ,
, .

48

8a.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

8.5%

12.8%

11.4%

10.6%

10.3%

5.4%

5.3%

5.1%
8.1%

4.4%

4.3%

6.4%

11.2%

7.6%

9.1%

9.9%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

4.9%

3.9%

6.3%

7.5%

9.2%

23.0%

16.5%

16.1%

17.9%

15.2%

16.6%

15.0%

17.8%

10.2%

10.9%

11.9%

9.7%

7.7%

6.6%

5.9%

1.2%

2.1%

5.2%

3.7%

3.1%

3.2%

3.3%

3.5%

1.8%

4.5%

2.4%

2.6%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One
8b.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

4.3%

5.9%

7.3%

7.3%

13.8%

10.7%

8.3%

8.5%

11.1%

10.9%

9.8%

10.6%

15.8%

13.5%

13.6%

12.5%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

1.6%

2.2%

3.6%

4.2%

1.2%

13.2%

7.2%

6.9%

15.4%

11.7%

14.0%

14.9%

20.9%

14.8%

17.9%

19.7%

8.7%

6.8%

6.2%

4.7%

0.0%

2.1%

5.7%

4.2%

49

: / SIEMS

2.8%

2.8%

3.3%

4.3%

5.4%

3.0%

3.7%
2.8%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Source: Own elaboration based on Thomson One M&A deals data


8c.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

5.0%

11.4%

8.8%

6.2%

10.0%

8.6%

7.9%

6.5%

11.3%

3.5%

7.9%

7.8%

15.0%

12.1%

12.6%

16.6%

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

2.5%

2.3%

5.5%

4.6%

8.8%

24.7%

10.2%

11.6%
14.3%

15.0%

11.2%

15.1%

21.3%

12.8%

18.6%

18.9%

6.3%

4.0%

5.6%

5.2%
3.5%

1.3%

0.5%

3.1%

0.0%

5.1%

2.6%

2.7%

3.8%

3.7%

2.0%

2.2%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One
8d.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

15.4%

3.9%

3.9%

4.7%

15.4%

13.4%

12.2%

12.0%
12.8%

30.8%

10.5%

10.5%

0.0%

16.5%

17.5%

15.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

1.3%

2.2%

4.1%

0.0%

11.3%

6.8%

7.2%

50

7.7%

10.5%

12.9%

13.3%

15.4%

13.6%

16.9%

15.5%

7.7%

10.8%

5.9%

4.7%

0.0%

1.3%

1.8%

2.7%

0.0%

2.9%

4.5%

3.7%

7.7%

3.9%

4.9%

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100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One

.
,
.
.
9a.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

3.5%

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3.1%

2.8%

10.5%

5.5%

11.3%

9.3%

4.2%

9.0%

15.5%

17.8%

18.3%

13.9%

17.4%

14.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%
17.7%

7.3%

4.1%

8.9%

4.9%

9.0%

6.1%

7.2%

14.1%

7.4%

8.3%

10.1%

19.5%

8.2%

10.6%

5.9%

8.8%

7.4%

5.3%

4.8%

1.3%

1.0%

8.7%

5.2%

4.9%

1.6%

2.1%

2.0%

2.7%

29.6%

2.8%

3.1%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One

51

: / SIEMS

9b.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

0.8%

0.6%

1.8%

2.2%

7.4%

3.7%

5.4%

12.3%

32.8%

21.6%

16.6%

10.2%

4.4%

15.1%

24.3%

9.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

0.3%

2.5%

5.4%

0.1%

2.3%

1.1%

6.8%
6.8%

6.2%

2.8%

5.9%

28.3%

7.3%

19.4%

22.3%

2.3%

2.1%

2.1%

1.3%
4.1%

0.0%

0.6%

3.5%

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1.5%

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2.8%

16.3%

42.0%

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16.6%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One
9c.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

1.2%

2.4%

0.5%

0.8%

2.9%

4.2%

4.3%

10.1%
28.6%

17.4%

6.4%

13.4%

5.6%

15.3%

18.6%

5.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

1.8%

5.6%

1.6%

15.6%

1.9%

2.3%

8.1%

8.5%

10.1%

7.4%

60.2%

39.4%

44.6%

31.7%

1.4%

0.7%

1.4%

4.8%

52

0.0%

0.0%

0.9%

2.7%

0.0%

5.0%

0.7%

0.1%

1.6%

2.1%

1.8%

0.6%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One
9d.
-

1989-1990

1999-2000

2007-2008

2009-2010

0.0%

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

67.3%

12.2%

5.6%

3.4%
40.3%

16.6%

29.8%

17.4%

0.0%

8.7%

25.0%

8.9%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.6%

0.8%

0.0%

1.5%

3.5%

0.9%

0.0%

3.0%

8.1%

2.2%

14.1%

30.3%

20.2%

9.3%

1.0%

4.4%

1.9%

1.3%
0.3%

0.0%

1.3%

0.2%

0.0%

0.5%

4.7%

3.9%

1.0%

7.6%

11.1%

28.6%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

:
Thomson One

/ SIEMS

53

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REFERENCES/ SIEMS Issue Report

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. Thomson Financial .
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A.

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2006
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), World
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Index =

(it *it )

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t; it
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72

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