1. p1, p2 p3.

. ,
, (q1,q2,q3), , ,
, , (x1,x2,x3).
()
, , .
() , ,
, .
? .
2. IS-LM :

Y = E Y , i e , G, T

0 < EY < 1, Ei e < 0, EG > 0, ET < 0 ,

M
= L(i, Y ) Li < 0, LY > 0
P

di
dY

.
dM
dM

3. IS-LM , M
. ,
M
, i = i .
() LM (.. i Y,
).
() (AD).
4. IS-LM.
e , ?
1

. - .

5. IS-LM-AS.
i Y - T, ..
LM :
M
= L(i, Y T ) Li < 0, LY T > 0 .
P
?
6.
:
P *
E = C (Y T ) + I i e + G + NX
.
P

.

. , ,
:
() i Y;
() ;
() .
7.
Y = AF (L ) ( F () > 0, F () < 0, A > 0 ). , A
.
AS?
8. , ; ()
, ,
. , (price takers),
, , ,
. ,
,
.

2

. - .

 ?
, , ?
9. C (Y T , r , W )

0 < CY T < 1, C r < 0, CW > 0 . (V)

(Bf). , ,
(BG).
() : ,
( ).
() , BG=0 ()
(Bf(G) -
). ?
?
()
. ?
10. , , .
?
11.
?
( 2-3) , .
12. ,
. ?
?
13. :

3

. - .

(1)

Y = F (K , N )

(2)

w
N = N , i
p
w
= FN (K , N )
p
Y =C + I +G
C = C (i )
I = I (i )
M
= m(Y , i )
p

(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7 )

? ,
?
~ F (K , N )
14. : I = I K
,
r

~
I () > 0 , r - .

, ,
? ? (
,

Y = a 0 + a1 K + a 2 N .)
15. , ( )
( ).
.
() , -, ?
()
?
?
M

16. c = C y , r , ,
P

C3>0,
() ?
4

. - .

() ?
17. ? ,
, ?
18.
M

c = C y , r , .
P

,
0<<1 ?
. ,
=1?
19. G
: ,
.
.
( )
, ,
:
() P ;
() I ;
() I P?
20.
. ()
1 . .,

.
?
21. , IS LM :

5

. - .

Y = C Y T , + I (r ) + G ,
P

M
W

= L Y , r , ,
P
P

C2>0

0<L3<1

M +B
W
=K+
,
P
P

C2 L3?
:
()
dB;
() dT=dB/P?

22. Sidrauski (1967) ,

: u (ct , mt ) = w(ct ) + v(mt ) , ,
, v(mt ) = mt (B D ln mt ) , B D . ,
mt = Ae t it ,

B
1

A = e D

t = w(ct ) / D .
23. , u (ct , mt ) = ln ct + mt e mt , > 0, = 0.95 ,
f (k ) = k 0.5 , = 0.02 .

* U t = i u (ct +i , mt +i )
i =0

? ,
*?
24. , mt = Ae it , A - .
, , A
6

. - .

 (, .. 1).
? , .
25. , im.
lump-sum . a ,
lump-sum . :

t + v = i m mt , t = ai m mt , v = mt . Sidrauski,
() ,
r + i m = i i m . , .
() , i i m ,
.
.

26.

u (c, m ) = c a 1 + (m * m ) , a > 0 .
2

(css=1). ,
, aIss<1,

I=i/(1+i), i .
27.

t =0

exp( C t ) exp( M t Pt )

Mt
Btn+1
Btn M t 1
Ct +
+ Bt +1 +
= (1 + rt 1 )Bt + (1 + it 1 )
+
+ Yt ,
Pt
Pt
Pt
Pt
rt-1 - , t "" (Bt),
t-1, it-1 - , t
"" (Btn), t-1.
(..
).
28. " ",
. ? .
7

. - .

29. ,
, .
,
() , , ,
. :
%, (lump-sum tax).
?
()? ? ?
,
.
30.
? ?
31. .
,
. :
at +1 +

Mt
M
= (1 + r )at + t 1 + y t
Pt
Pt

M
g t
Pt

ct t

a - , M - , P - , c -
, - , y - (

(
)
(
)
), r - , g M t Pt = 1 k exp M t Pt - ""
(0<k<1). .
?
32. 20-30
.
? ,
, .
,
?
8

. - .

33.

u (ct , mt ) = ct1 / + mt1 /

ct - , mt - , >1.
?

34. 100 .,
1 .,
2 .
1 . . (
) ,
10%?
35.
1998 .?
36. , rr=0.1, cr=0.2. 200
.
() , ,
,
?
() .
?
37.
" "
?
38. .
"" ,

9

. - .

 ?
?
39. ,
(
), 1993 . 3.9 8.5 .
() , ?
?
( ,
)?
() cr -
. ?
40. ?
41. ' - , V' -
.
() ( )
.
() : "
,
". ,
. () , ?

e
42. m p = 0.8 .

e
e
& = 1.3 . t=0 m .

t=0 m > m
. , -, ?
43. ,
:
10

. - .

qt = a0 + a1 pt + vt , a1 < 0

qt = b0 + b1 pte + u t , b1 > 0

ut, vt - " ". pte , ..

pte = Et 1 pt E ( p t t 1 ) , t 1 = {pt 1 , pt 2 ,K , qt 1 , qt 2 ,K} . pt

,
.
44. , :

& e (t ) = [ (t ) e (t )], 0 < <

1
.
b

M (t )
m(t ) = C exp b e (t ) .
P(t )

G
.
? .
45. mt pt = c b(Et pt +1 pt ) , m p . ,
.
() pt mt Etpt+1.
() , Etpt+1 Etmt+1

Etpt+2.
() pt mt, Etmt+1, Etmt+2, (
i

b
, lim Et
pt +i = 0
i
1 + b
"" ).
() , Etmt+i i > 0 pt?
() , .. Et mt +i = mt + gi .
pt mt g. g pt?

11

. - .

46. log

M
= a bi + log y .
P

gy.
, ?
47.

u (ct , mt ) = w(ct ) + v(mt ) ,

w(ct ) = ln ct

v(mt ) = mt (B D ln mt ) , B D .
m, .
() (.. *, ..

<* , >* - )?
()
?
() , n, m
.
?
n?
48. . ,
:
ln P

0
T
?

49. :
m p = e ,

& e = ( e ) ,

12

. - .

 ,>0, <1. T . T
>.
dm/dt

0
T
t
T.
50. , :
bt = Rbt 1 + g t t y t st , bt
, R=1+i () , gt ,

t , st . ,
f(), . R

{g t +i }i=0

, ..

Et i [h( t +i ) + k ( t +i )] ,
i =0

h k ,
.
() ,
() .
() ,
.
()

y = 1, f ( ) = a , h( ) = b 2 , k ( ) = c 2 .

. t t,

bt-1

R
i =0

g t +i .

() . (), :
?

13

. - .

51. Mankiw (1987),

. ,
, : mt pt = (Et pt +1 pt ) .
mt = mtP + vt , mtP -
, vt -
( ). .
mtP ,
,
. mtP , . () (), ,
; ,
.
() mtP = (1 )t + mt 1
() mtP = mt 1 +
52.
. ,
.
G. ,

dM
dt

p(t ) = G , M - ,

p - . , ,

(dM

dt ) M (t ) . G ,

. ,
( ).
() , Gmax,
.
() G Gmax, , ,
,

Gmax.

14

. - .

 G,
? .
() , G
.
?
53.

M
= const Y exp e ,
P

& e = ( e ). , g.
( ),
?
54. .
,
,
:
() () ()
;
() ()
.
55. ( ).
t0 , , ,
k%.
. , ,
, :
() ;
() T ?
56.
. , ,
?
15

. - .

57. - .
() - .
() ,
. ?
() . () ? ,
?
() ,
?
() , ?
58. , , ,
, 3 4. ,
, .
(.. ,
).
59. : mt pt = 0.5(Et pt +1 pt ) , mt -
, pt - . t=0
, 3 %
. ,
t0. .
60. , .
?
61. US Survey of Current Business Livingston Survey (Federal Bank of Philadelphia)
:

1980
1981
1982
1983

10.4
9.7
6.1
4.5

10.3
7.7
4.1
4.0
16

. - .

1984
5.3
3.1
1985
4.0
3.3
() , .
() 1984 .?
62. a ,
t = pt + (1 )pt 1 , 0 < < 1 .
63. t0 , T>t0
'>.
, , ,
?
64.
G ( ) T ( ) .

( )

m e = b c e .

T
aT. .
65.
?
66. ?
67. , .
:
() (M/Py);
() (
; , );
() ;
() ;
() q?

17

. - .

68. () ,
10% 2%. .
5%.
, , ?
69. :
m p = hy ki ,
y = b( p ) a(i p& ) ,
i = & ,

p& = y ,
y, m, p, - , ,
, h, k, b, a, -
. y = i = p& = m = p = 0 . ,

m.
() , , (..
p& = 0 ), y = i = 0 p = = m .

() , ,
m , m,
, .. (undershooting),
(overshooting) .
70. :
y t = Et y t +1 (it Et t +1 ) + g t

(1)

t = y t + Et t +1

(2)

, , > 0, gt - , AR(1): g t = g t 1 + t (0<<1).

() , .. it=0.
() (1) (2).
() yt, pt t.
() ?
18

. - .

71. :
y = a(i p& ) ,

m p = ki ,
p& = y .

y, m, p - ,
, k, a, - , a < 1.
() y = i = p& = m = p = 0 . , t = 0
m m < m .
(1) y i ? ( , p
.) y(+0)
? .
(2) y(t) t = 0?
() , ,

, V = y (t ) dt . V
2

?
72. ,
(.. t,
, t+1 ).
IS LM :
IS

y = c ar ,

LM

m p = b + hy ki ,

a, h, k > 0. m = 0, y = y = 0 ( y -
). t = 1
m g > 0 .
() r, e, i, p .
() r, e, i, p t = 2 ,
.
() r, i, p E1 [ p2 ] p1 t = 1.

19

. - .

() ,
?
73. , ,
. IS LM :
IS

y = c ar ,

LM

m p = b + hy ki

mt = mt 1 + u t , ut " ".
()

Et [Et +1 [ pt + 2 ] pt +1 ] = 0

Et mt +1 Et pt +1 = b + hy kr ?

() (), yt, pt, it rt mt-1 ut.

() ? ,
?

74. yt = y + b t te , b > 0 ,
mt = mt 1 + a + t , t - " ". ,
mt t;
, te pt - pt-1, mt-1, t-1, yt-1
pt-1. yt = mt pt .

() yt .
() - , mt-1 mt, ,
yt? .

() ,
a > 0,
a = 0. , .
yt mt-1, mt, , y , b .
() , ,

.

20

. - .

75. (
):
y t = a( pt Et 1 pt ) + t
y t = rt + u t
mt p t = y t

(AS)

(IS)
1
it + v t
d

it = rt + Et pt +1 pt

(LM)

( )

, t
t-1 vt-1 .
76. ,
, :
wtc = wt0 + b( pt Et 1 pt ) ,

w0 , b ( 0 b 1 ).
() ,

y t = (1 ) nt + t

( )

wt pt = y t nt

( )

() , ,
Et 1 (nt n ) . ( )
2

" " mt = t .
y t = rt
mt p t = y t

(IS)
1
it
d

it = rt + Et pt +1 pt

(LM)
( )

,
, (" ").
77. Taylor ()
, , t,
21

. - .

 t t+1. ,
, t, xt1 t
xt2

t+1.

t pt =

xt1 = pt + kyt

xt2 = Et pt +1 + kEt yt +1 .

1 1
xt + xt21 .
2

y t = mt pt , - mt = m0 + t .
t pt yt? ,
.
78. p-bar (
):
y t = rt + u t
mt pt = y t

(IS)
1
it + v t
d

it = rt + Et pt +1 pt

(LM)
( )

pt = Et 1 pt

pt - , , ..
y t = 0 (
!).
mt = mt 1 + aut . , yt a.
a IS (ut) ?
79. AS-IS-LM :
y t = Et y t +1 rt + u t
mt pt = y t

(IS)

1
it + v t
d

it = rt + Et pt +1 pt

(LM)
( )

y t = Et 1 y t + a( pt Et 1 pt ) + t

(AS)

y t = (1 )nt + z t - ( ,
.. ), t =

z t Et 1 z t

, a=

22

. - .

 AR(1) z t = z t 1 + et , 1 < < 1 . ,

yt pt.
80. :
mt = + mt 1 + t ,

0 < < 1 , t - ( ).
:
y t = a( pt Et 1 pt ) + t
y t = rt + u t
mt pt = y t

(AS)

(IS)
1
it + v t
d

it = rt + Et pt +1 pt

(LM)
( )

, .
( t > 0 ) ?
, = 1 ? .

81. ,
. AS-IS-LM,
, .. mt = t . ,
mt pt .
82. ,
,
.
Y = AL ,0 < < 1 . () .

, ,
, .

. , ( )

23

. - .

y = l * +

1
(
p pe )+
ln A ,
1
1

l* - .
83. :
y t = mt p t ,
y t = a( pt wt + u t ) ,
wt = pt 1 ,
mt = mt 1 + emt ,
u t = u t 1 + eut ,

w - , u - .
.
() ,
emt t=0?
() ,
eut t=0?
() ?
() yt.
() . ()
?
84. , AD AS :
AD: yt = 0 + 1 (mt pt ) + 2 Et 1 ( pt +1 pt )
AS: yt = y + 1 (mt Et 1mt ) .

MP: mt = 0 + 1mt 1 + et .
IS :
IS: Rt = b0 + b1 yt + Et 1 ( pt +1 pt ), b1 < 0 .
?

24

. - .

85. IS LM
IS: y = c ai + IS
LM: m p = hy ki + LM
, a, h, k > 0. ,
y IS
LM. , p=const.
(a) Var(y) , i = i ?
() Var(y) ,
m = m ?
() ,
Var(IS)=0?

() ,
Var(LM)=0?

() . () ().
86. :

= e + ay + e
y = br + u

m = di + y + v
,
, .
IS, , m ()
. r
i = r + e .
i ,

1
( y y *)2 + 2 , y* > 0 . ,
2

ef, uf vf,
25

. - .

 , i -
.
() ,
, i = c0 + c1e f + c2 u f + c3 v f .
c0, c1, c2 c3.
() ,
.

.
?
87.

L = a 2 + ( y ky ) , k > 1 .
2

y = y + b e .

() () .
() ,
. a b?
, b,
() ?
() ,
.
a b? , a,

() ?
() : "
, ".
88. :

y t = pt pte + y t 1 + pte pt 1 + u t , > 0, > 0 ,

mt p t = y t + t ,
pte = Et 1 pt ,

u - " ". ()
, E ( y t y *) .
2

26

. - .

 .
, u .
.
"" (..
) ? ?
89. :

yt = pt pte + yt 1 + u t , > 0 ,
mt p t = y t + t ,
pte = Et 1 pt + t ,

u, - " ". ()
, E ( y t y *) . ,
2

.
.
"" (..
) ? ?
90. ,
y t = y t 1 + b(L )mt + c(L )rt 1 + t , 0 < < 1 ,

- " ", E t y t s = 0, s 1
E t mt s = E t rt s = 0, s 0 ; b(L ) = i =0 bi Li , c(L ) = i =0 ci Li , L - .

() ,
Et 1 ( y t y *) .
2

m r (,
y ).
( )
, . ,

, .. .
27

. - .

91.
y ts = b( t Et 1 t ) + ts ,

ts - " ". ,
() , t. ,
" "
Lt = t2 + ( y t y ) .
2

?
92. i pit
:
pit = Et 1 pt + Et 1 y t ,

pt - , yt - .
,
:
y t = y t 1 + mt pt + u t .

, .
mt ,
() ut , ;
() , .
93.
" " " " .
94. : "
, "?
95. , ,
. ,
:
() () ;
() .
28

. - .

96. () ,
. , -,
: ,
? ?
97. ,
z t =

a
(mt m )2 b mt mte , mt -
2

t, m - (), mte -
t, a>0 b>0 - .

mt , mte t?
98. -
. ,
.
?
99.

. :

(BR=const)
(NBR=const).

.
100.

? , ?
101. : "
,
, ,
"? ,
.
29

. - .

102. ()

( )

F = R ( ) e , >0, R - , R = M& P = m , = M& / M , ( )

- , , ( e ) - ,

( , , , > 0 ).

( ) ( )

m = L e , L e < 0 . .

, (rule-based policy),
? (: ,
.)

30

. - .