D - RESEARCH

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

INDEKS

Posisi

(%)

IHSG

3.057,16

-0,83

DJIA

10.644,25

-0,51

NIKKEI

9.342,16

-2,20

FTSE

5.376,41

-0,63

21.473,60

-1,50

2.960,98

-0,80

KOMODITI

Posisi

(%)

Nikel

22.200

3,17

7.300

-1,68

Timah

20.600

2,77

Minyak

80,25

-1,51

4,32

0,51

93,10

-2,21

1.202,75

-0,12

2.797

2,79

Karet

1.207,31

-1,74

KURS

Posisi

(%)

IDR/USD

8.970

-0,19

IDR/SGD

6.617

-0,11

IDR/AUD

8.154

0,39

IDR/JPY

105,14

-0,21

IDR/EUR

11.762

0,34

Hang Seng
STI

Tembaga

Gas
Batubara
Emas
CPO

DUAL

Dollar

(%)

Rp.

TLKM

37,890

(1,76)

8.496,83

ISAT

25,150

(1,83)

4.511,91

0,035 (12,50)

231,54

BLTA

STATISTIK BURSA
Kap. Pasar (triliun)

2.456,01

Vol. Transaksi (juta lbr)

2.391,93

Nilai Transaksi (miliar)

2.413,89
Rate (%)

SBI (1 bln)

6.29

SUN (10th)

n/a

Fed Rate

0.25

Yunita Tanzaria ( junita@danareksa.com )

+62-21-3509777 ext. 3502

Trading Ideas

Pada perdagangan Selasa kemarin IHSG ditutup melemah 25,44 poin (-0,83%) ke level
3.057,16.

Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan akan bergerak pada support resistance 3.034-3.088.
Support resistance kedua berada di 2.980-3.142.

Pada perdagangan hari Selasa kemarin Indeks DJIA ditutup melemah 54,50 poin
(-0,51%) ke level 10.644,25.

IPO Bumi Mineral belum disetujui (BI)

Otoritas bursa masih belum menyetujui rencana IPO PT Bumi Resource Mineral (BRM), oleh
karena BRM saat ini masih harus memenuhi sejumlah persyaratan. Menurut rencana, BRM
akan menggelar IPO pada September 2010 dengan target perolehan dana sekitar US$400
juta, dengan menggunakan laporan keuangan tertanggal 31 Maret 2010.
Newmont akan IPO US$800 juta (ID)
Dalam salah satu agenda RUPSLB yang dijadwalkan berlangsung Kamis (19/8), PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) menargetkan perolehan dana US$800 juta atau sekitar Rp7,2
triliun dari IPO. NNT siap melepas 1,13 miliar saham atau sekitar 6 10% pada harga 6.385
per lembar.
Agung Podomoro targetkan dana IPO US$200 juta (ID)
Agung Podomoro Group (APG) menargetkan perolehan dana US$200 juta atau sekitar
Rp1,8 triliun dari hasil IPO saham tahun ini. Perseroan telah menunjuk PT Mandiri Sekuritas
sebagai penjamin pelaksana emisi.
Target kredit perbankan turun (ID)
BI memperkirakan kredit valas hanya tumbuh 17% tahun ini akibat dampak penguatan
kurs rupiah. Sedangkan penyaluran pinjaman rupiah diperkirakan meningkat cukup tajam,
mencapai 24%.

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

D-RESEARCH

Trading Ideas
Promosi agresif untuk menaikkan pangsa pasar GGRM

Rasio iklan terhadap penjualan kami perkirakan akan

meningkat menjadi 3,5% di FY10F. Biaya iklan naik
81% di 1H10, mencapai 4,3% dari total penjualan
perusahaan.
Kenaikan harga jual yang keempat di bulan Juni
2010 sebesar 2%, meyakinkan kami bahwa perusahaan mampu menghadapi kenaikan pita cukai serta
mampu mempertahankan pangsa pasarnya. Secara
keseluruhan, tingkat harga jual GGRM masih lebih
rendah dibandingkan HMSP, terutama pada produk
SKT, dengan harga 7% diskon. Sehingga kami yakinproduk GGRM dapat kompetitif di masa yang akan
datang.
Meskipun kenaikan harga ytd untuk produk SKM
telah mencapai 6-12%, kami yakin masih ada kesempatan bagi perusahaan untuk menaikkan harga SKT.
Kenaikan harga SKT sepertinya akan lebih kecil dibandingkan kenaikan harga pita cukai karena: 1)
pendapatan yang rendah dari konsumen lebih sensitive terhadap harga, 2) margin masih tinggi, dan 3).
GGRM berharap dapat memperoleh pangsa pasar
lebih besar lagi.

Earnings table
Year to 31 Dec
Sales (Rp bn)
EBITDA (Rp bn)
Net profit (Rp bn)
Core profit (Rp bn)
Core EPS (Rp)
Core EPS growth (%)
Core PER (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend yield (%)
BVPS (Rp)

Advertising-to-sales ratio (LHS)

Hand-rolled growth (RHS)

Machine-made growth (RHS)

8%

30%

7%
20%

6%
5%

10%

4%
0%

3%
2%

-10%

1%
1H10

FY09

1Q10

1H09

9M09

FY08

1Q09

1H08

9M08

FY07

1Q08

1H07

9M07

FY06

1Q07

1H06

9M06

FY05

1Q06

-20%
1H05

0%
9M05

Kami memperkirakan perputaran inventori dan piutang akan semakin pendek masing-masing menjadi
sekitar 225 dan 10 hari, karena manajemen kas yang
lebih baik setelah konsolidasi terhadap distributor.
Posisi kas dapat meningkat menjadi sekitar Rp 1,9
triliun di akhir FY10F dari Rp 1,4 triliun di akhir Juni
2010.

Iklan vs .pertumbuhan penjualan

1Q05

Guna mendorong penjualan, GGRM melakukan iklan

dan promosi secara agresif, digabung dengan kenaikan harga, dapat mendorong pendapatan sebesar
10,9-9,2% di 2010-11F menjadi Rp 37-40 triliun. Catatan bahwa kenaikan harga jual terakhir pada Juni
2010 sebesar 2%. Dengan TP Rp 40.000, mengimplikasikan PE 11F sebesar 16,9x, BUY.

Analis: Merlissa Paramitha

Harga jual GGRM vs. pesaingnya

Sticks per pack Current price Jan price
Rp/pack Rp/pack

Brand

ytd increase Rp/stick

%

GUDANG GARAM
Gudang Garam Filter
Gudang Garam Merah
Surya Pro
Surya 16
Surya Premium
Surya Slim
Pro Mild
Average price increase

12
12
16
16
12
12
16

9,000
6,500
9,500
11,000
9,000
8,000
8,500

8,500
6,400
8,500
9,500
8,000
7,000
new

6
2
12
16
13
14
n.a.
10

750
542
594
688
750
667
531

SAMPOERNA
Sampoerna Mild
Sampoerna Kretek
Sampoerna Hijau
Sampoerna Click Mint
Dji Sam Soe
Average price increase

16
12
12
12
12

10,500
7,000
7,000
10,500
10,000

10,000
6,500
6,500
new
9,000

5
8
8
n.a.
11
8

656
583
583
875
833

DJARUM
Djarum Super
Djarum Coklat
Djarum Black
Djarum 76
LA
Average price increase

12
12
16
12
16

9,500
7,000
9,500
7,000
9,500

8,500
6,500
9,000
6,500
9,000

12
8
6
8
6
8

792
583
594
583
594

BENTOEL
Sejati
Star Mild
Clas Mild
Marlboro
U Mild
Neo Mild
Average price increase

12
16
16
20
16
16

6,500
9,500
9,500
11,500
8,000
7,500

5,500
9,000
9,000
11,000
7,000
new

18
6
6
5
14
n.a.
10

542
594
594
575
500
469

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

2011F

30,252
3,911
1,880
1,863
968
29.1
36.9
18.4
0.7
8,066

32,973
5,941
3,456
3,515
1,827
88.7
19.5
11.9
1.0
9,512

36,566
6,242
4,001
3,995
2,076
13.7
17.2
11.0
2.0
10,873

39,947
6,888
4,550
4,546
2,363
13.8
15.1
9.8
2.9
12,198

43,728
7,542
5,091
5,091
2,646
12.0
13.5
8.7
3.3
13,661

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

D-RESEARCH

Trading Ideas
Upgrade TP GJTL menjadi Rp 2.080, BUY

Analis: Indra P. Yudison

Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY untuk

GJTL dengan menaikkan TP menjadi Rp 2.080, yang
mengimplikasikan PE 10F-11 sebesar 9,2-7,7x. Estimasi earnings 10F-11 juga kami naikkan masingmasing sebesar 34%-33%. Outlook penjualan cerah,
dengan meningkatnya order Michelin. Saat ini saham GJTL diperdagangkan dengan valuasi yang
menarik dengan PE 10F-11F sebesar 6,1-5,1x.
Kinerja 1H10 melampaui ekspektasi kami. Gross margin melebar menjadi 21,3% di 2Q10 dari 19,9% di
1Q10, sehingga laba kotor mencapai 59% dari FY
forecast kami. Sementara untuk biaya operasional di
1H10 telah mencapai 45% dari FY forecast kami, namun masih sesuai dengan forecast kami. Net gearing
turun menjadi 109% di akhir Juni 2010 dari 121% di
akhir tahun 2009.
Harga karet Bangkok RSS 3 turun menjadi US$ 3,2/
kg. Dikarenakan kebutuhan karet terhitung sebesar
27% dari biaya produksi, maka tekanan pada gross
margin dapat berkurang di 2H10. Berdasarkan analisis sensitivitas kami, setiap penurunan 5% dari harga
karet, gross margin akan naik sekitar 110 bps.
Estimasi gross margin untuk 2010-11 kami naikkan
masing-masing menjadi 20,8-20,9%, dari sebelumnya 17,9%-18,1%. Kami juga menaikkan estimasi volume penjualan untuk ban radial, bias, dan sepeda
motor menjadi masing-masing sebesar 10,2 juta, 4,1
juta dan 19,7 juta. Selain itu, estimasi ASP untuk ban
radial, bias serta sepeda motor di 2010 kami turunkan masing-masing sebesar 13,5%, 1,6% dan
4,6%.

Earnings table
Year to Dec

2008

2009

2010F

2011F

2012F

Sales, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Core PER, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Dividend Yield, %
BVPS, Rp

7,963
900
(625)
44
13
(78)
108.3
5.0
0.4
473

7,936
1,498
905
540
155
1,126
8.8
2.2
766

9,388
1,600
789
765
220
42
6.2
2.0
0.9
984

10,889
1,833
938
912
262
19
5.2
1.3
0.8
1,247

11,753
1,967
990
961
276
5
5.0
0.6
1.0
1,523

Rasio
2008

2009

2010F

2011F

2012F

14.3
7.3
11.3
(7.8)
(31.0)
(7.3)

23.0
14.4
18.9
11.4
41.9
10.3

20.8
13.0
17.0
8.4
25.9
8.4

20.9
13.2
16.8
8.6
24.1
9.0

21.0
13.2
16.7
8.4
20.5
8.6

Leverage
Debt to Equity, %
Net Gearing, %

280
270

151
121

118
94

91
53

73
24

Valuation
PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Dividend Yield, %

(7.6)
2.9
5.0
0.4

5.3
1.8
2.2
-

6.1
1.4
2.0
0.9

5.1
1.1
1.3
0.8

4.8
0.9
0.6
1.0

19.6
(3.4)
(12.5)
(6.5)
(787.8)

(0.3)
60.5
97.0
66.4
(244.9)

18.3
7.1
6.6
6.9
(12.9)

16.0
16.9
17.4
14.6
18.9

7.9
8.2
8.4
7.3
5.5

Profitability
Gross Margin, %
Operating Margin, %
EBITDA Margin, %
Net Margin, %
ROAE, %
ROAA, %

Growth
Sales Growth, %
Gross Profit Growth, %
Operating Profit Growth, %
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit Growth, %

Kinerja 1H10
in Rp bn
Sales
COGS
Gross Profit
Opex
Operating Income
EBITDA
Other Income (Expenses)
Pretax Income
Net Income
Core Income
in%
Gross Margin
Opex to Sales
Operating Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Margin

1H10

1H09

YoY
%

2Q10

2Q09

YoY
%

1Q10

QoQ
%

2010F

A/F
%

4,813
3,819
994
326
668
857
(83)
599
415
373

3,781
3,180
602
359
243
425
(27)
210
145
(26)

27.3
20.1
65.2
(9.1)
175.0
101.8
207.1
185.1
186.8
(1,550.6)

2,499
1,965
533
181
353
444
(97)
254
169
186

2,044
1,659
385
216
169
257
357
558
439
63

22.2
18.4
38.6
(16.3)
108.9
72.5
(127.1)
(54.4)
(61.6)
197.2

2,315
1,854
461
145
316
414
14
344
246
188

8.0
6.0
15.7
24.4
11.8
7.2
(785.8)
(26.1)
(31.6)
(1.0)

9,384
7,702
1,683
730
953
1,332
(186)
783
588
552

51
50
59
45
70
64
44
76
71
68

20.7
6.8
13.9
17.8
8.6

15.9
9.5
6.4
11.2
3.8

21.3
7.2
14.1
17.8
6.7

18.8
10.6
8.3
12.6
21.5

19.9
6.3
13.6
17.9
10.6

17.9
7.8
10.2
14.2
6.3

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

D-RESEARCH

Aksi Korporasi
Cum

Ex

Saham

Nominal (Rp)

Closing (Rp)

Yield (%)

Tanggal

Saham

Agenda

11-Agus

12-Agus

PLIN

1,25

1.090

0,11

13-Agus

YULE

RUPSLB

15-Agus

16-Agus

CLPI

30,2

540

5,59

14-Agus

INDS

RUPSLB

15-Agus

16-Agus

INDS

250

4.200

5,95

19-Agus

KBRI

RUPSLB

Kuotasi Danareksa
Danareksa Obligasi Ritel (DORi)
Bid (%)

Offer (%)

ORI 003

102,00

102,35

ORI 004

102,50

103,00

ORI 005

106,50

107,50

ORI 006

102,50

103,00

ORI 007

100,75

101,25

SR 001

106,50

107,00

SR 002

101,85

102,25

Saham-saham dengan PBV rendah di 2010F

Price
Bberg Code
BTEL IJ
MAPI IJ
MASA IJ
ISAT IJ
GJTL IJ

Rating
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

Price (Rp)
153
800
250
4,525
1,370

PBV

ROAE

Target (Rp) 2010F 2010F 2011F

220
1,120
400
5,670
1,380

0.6
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.5

4%
14%
12%
10%
20%

4%
14%
13%
10%
20%

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

D-RESEARCH

Rekomendasi Fundamental

Rekomendasi Teknikal
Saham

Closing
(Rp)

Support 2 Support Resisten

(Rp)
1 (Rp)
1 (Rp)

Resisten
2 (Rp)

Saham

Harga
(Rp)

Kapitalisasi
(Rpmiliar)

Rekomendasi

TP
(Rp)

Upside
(%)

52 hi
(Rp)

52 lo
(Rp)

YTD
(%)

TLKM

8.400

8.200

8.350

8.500

8.650

TLKM

8.400

169.344

BUY

9.650

14,88

10.350

6.950

(8,11)

BBRI

9.550

9.325

9.475

9.625

9.775

BBRI

9.550

117.805

BUY

9.900

3,66

10.150

6.800

26,64

ASII

47.500

45.300

46.950

48.600

50.250

BMRI

6.050

126.938

HOLD

5.250

(13,22)

6.300

3.700

31,16

PGAS

4.075

3.850

4.000

4.150

4.300

ISAT

4.525

24.589

BUY

5.670

25,30

6.350

4.100

(1,55)

BMRI

6.050

5.675

5.900

6.125

6.350

UNTR

19.550

65.040

BUY

21.500

9,97

20.300

11.800

28,37

ISAT

4.525

4.375

4.488

4.600

4.713

PGAS

4.075

98.784

BUY

4.900

20,25

4.400

3.175

8,30

UNTR

19.550

18.700

19.225

19.750

20.275

TINS

2.475

12.457

BUY

3.000

21,21

2.825

1.760

25,54

ANTM

2.150

1.988

2.100

2.213

2.325

BBCA

6.000

147.930

SELL

4.550

(24,17)

6.300

4.125

25,35

BBNI

2.975

2.813

2.925

3.038

3.150

UNVR

16.600

126.658

SELL

13.500

(18,67)

18.900

9.350

52,79

TINS

2.475

2.263

2.413

2.563

2.713

BUMI

1.660

32.211

BUY

2.200

32,53

3.475

1.570

(30,45)

BBCA

6.000

5.675

5.900

6.125

6.350

BBNI

2.975

45.440

BUY

2.800

(5,88)

3.100

1.730

53,23

UNVR

16.600

16.025

16.400

16.775

17.150

ASRI

205

3.662

BUY

275

34,15

225

98

96,28

BUMI

1.660

1.555

1.630

1.705

1.780

INTP

16.300

60.004

BUY

17.300

6,13

17.100

8.450

20,63

BNII

305

280

295

310

325

SMGR

8.700

51.604

BUY

9.300

6,90

9.500

5.500

18,39

INTP

16.300

15.500

16.100

16.700

17.300

INDF

4.175

36.658

BUY

5.100

22,16

4.725

2.275

20,08

INCO

4.325

4.113

4.263

4.413

4.563

BDMN

5.350

45.028

BUY

6.850

28,04

5.850

4.225

19,83

INDF

4.175

4.013

4.125

4.238

4.350

AALI

21.100

33.227

BUY

28.000

32,70

25.650

17.050

(5,13)

BDMN

5.350

5.225

5.300

5.375

5.450

SMRA

980

6.736

BUY

1.150

17,35

1.010

460

65,03

SMGR

8.700

8.325

8.550

8.775

9.000

GGRM

35.750

68.786

BUY

23.600

(33,99)

38.150

11.900

69,06

AALI

21.100

19.775

20.750

21.725

22.700

EXCL

4.675

39.775

BUY

4.200

(10,16)

5.000

1.160

142,23

LSIP

9.450

8.525

9.200

9.875

10.550

JSMR

2.675

18.190

BUY

2.300

(14,02)

2.725

1.660

54,13

PTBA

16.250

15.775

16.075

16.375

16.675

MYOR

7.550

5.788

BUY

8.000

5,96

8.450

2.225

70,00

BLTA

260

238

253

268

283

RALS

780

5.535

BUY

1.150

47,44

1.050

520

29,19

BNGA

1.280

1.160

1.250

1.340

1.430

SMCB

2.275

17.433

BUY

2.750

20,88

2.525

1.220

46,77

INTP

16.300

15.500

16.100

16.700

17.300

MPPA

940

5.242

SELL

640

(31,91)

1.360

810

49,21

LPKR

500

468

490

513

535

GJTL

1.370

4.774

BUY

1.380

0,73

1.400

300

227,29

CTRA

360

338

353

368

383

MASA

250

1.530

BUY

400

60,00

305

158

22,45

CTRP

310

288

303

318

333

ITMG

38.800

43.841

SELL

31.500

(18,81)

40.600

20.000

26,03

ELTY

116

106

113

121

128

HEXA

5.250

4.410

BUY

3.500

(33,33)

6.350

2.550

66,67

ENRG

106

94

103

112

121

ASII

47.500

192.297

BUY

55.000

15,79

52.800

28.100

39,32

JSMR

2.675

2.563

2.638

2.713

2.788

CTRA

360

5.460

BUY

1.010

180,56

475

240

48,45

KIJA

93

86

91

95

100

CTRP

560

1.907

BUY

488

(12,86)

400

235

28,19

KLBF

2.375

2.263

2.338

2.413

2.488

PTBA

16.250

37.442

BUY

19.550

20,31

19.350

12.450

(3,20)

SMCB

2.275

2.163

2.238

2.313

2.388

DOID

900

6.111

BUY

2.350

161,11

2.175

760

(46,75)

SGRO

2.675

2.450

2.600

2.750

2.900

MAPI

800

1.328

BUY

970

21,25

820

390

32,15

Rabu, 11 Agustus 2010

D-RESEARCH

Valuation Guide
Price
Bberg Code
Danareksa Universe
Auto
Astra International
Gajah Tunggal
Multistrada
Banks
BCA
BNI
BRI
Danamon
Mandiri
Cem ent
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Gresik
Construction
JSMR
TOTL
Consum er
Indof ood
Kalbe
Mayora
Mitra Adi
Ramayana
Unilever
Heavy Equipm ent
HEXA
UNTR
Mining
ADRO
Bumi
BYAN
Timah
Inco
INDY
Aneka Tambang
PTBA
ITMG
Plantation
AALI
SGRO
BWPT
BISI
Property
Alam Sutera
CTRA
CTRP
DILD
SMRA
Telco
BTEL
Excelcom
Indosat
Telkom
Utility
PGN
Chem ical
SOBI
AKRA
Conglom erate
DOID/BUMA

Rating (Rp)

Danareksa Universe
Auto
ASII IJ
BUY
GJTL IJ
BUY
MASA IJ
BUY
Banks
BBCA IJ
SELL
BBNI IJ
BUY
BBRI IJ
BUY
BDMN IJ
BUY
BMRI IJ
HOLD
Cem ent
SMCB IJ
BUY
INTP IJ
BUY
SMGR IJ
BUY
Construction
JSMR IJ
BUY
TOTL IJ
BUY
Consum er
INDF IJ
BUY
KLBF IJ
BUY
MYOR IJ
BUY
MAPI IJ
BUY
RALS IJ
BUY
UNVR IJ
SELL
Heavy Equipm ent
HEXA IJ
BUY
UNTR IJ
BUY
Mining
ADRO IJ
BUY
BUMI IJ
BUY
BYAN IJ
SELL
TINS IJ
BUY
INCO IJ
BUY
INDY IJ
BUY
ANTM IJ
BUY
PTBA IJ
BUY
ITMG IJ
SELL
Plantation
AALI IJ
BUY
SGRO IJ
BUY
BWPT IJ
BUY
BISI IJ
SELL
Property
ASRI IJ
BUY
CTRA IJ
BUY
CTRP IJ
BUY
DILD IJ
BUY
SMRA IJ
BUY
Telco
BTEL IJ
BUY
EXCL IJ
BUY
ISAT IJ
BUY
TLKM IJ
BUY
Utility
PGAS IJ
BUY
Chem ical
SOBI IJ
BUY
AKRA IJ
BUY
Conglom erate
DOID IJ
BUY

Price
Target (Rp)

47,500
1,370
250

55,000
1,380
400

6,000
2,975
9,550
5,350
6,050

5,100
3,650
12,200
6,850
5,250

2,275
16,300
8,700

2,750
17,300
9,300

2,675
215

3,100
256

4,175
2,375
7,550
800
780
16,600

5,100
2,800
9,500
1,120
1,150
13,500

5,250
19,550

3,500
21,500

2,100
1,660
8,050
2,475
4,325
3,375
2,150
16,250
38,800

2,650
2,200
4,550
3,000
5,000
3,500
3,500
19,200
31,500

21,100
2,675
870
1,570

28,000
3,250
810
1,130

205
360
310
610
980

340
505
488
750
1,150

153
4,675
4,525
8,400

220
4,200
5,670
9,650

4,075

4,900

1,970
1,370

2,025
1,580

900

1,420

Mkt Cap
Rp Bn
1,826,346
198,694
192,280
4,774
1,640
505,153
147,930
45,440
117,707
44,913
149,163
129,041
17,433
60,004
51,604
18,774
18,190
584
198,247
36,656
22,307
5,788
1,328
5,510
126,658
69,450
4,410
65,040
300,225
67,171
31,425
26,833
12,457
42,975
17,574
20,508
37,442
43,841
46,504
33,227
5,056
3,511
4,710
25,368
3,662
5,460
1,907
7,588
6,752
228,105
2,890
33,146
24,593
167,476
93,674
93,674
6,998
1,803
5,196
6,111
6,111

PER (x)
2010
2011
15.7
14.8
15.2
8.1
8.7
16.2
19.4
11.8
13.3
16.2
18.6
16.1
14.4
17.4
15.4
14.9
15.1
10.8
25.2
17.4
18.6
12.7
6.9
13.3
36.2
14.0
13.8
14.0
13.7
16.5
12.7
33.7
9.6
11.1
14.4
7.6
17.0
14.6
12.9
12.4
10.7
13.2
23.0
20.9
15.3
25.0
10.9
25.1
24.3
14.3
15.1
13.7
13.2
14.6
15.3
15.3
12.2
11.4
12.5
8.7
8.7

13.7
13.4
13.8
6.8
6.5
13.5
17.6
10.4
10.5
11.8
15.6
15.2
12.2
15.3
16.4
12.5
12.6
10.5
20.8
13.2
15.3
10.5
6.2
11.0
31.3
13.5
13.1
13.5
13.1
12.8
19.9
25.3
9.3
13.1
12.4
11.5
12.2
11.1
11.6
11.6
9.3
10.4
17.5
14.2
9.7
13.1
8.1
18.5
19.2
12.5
13.4
9.6
12.1
13.3
13.1
13.1
9.5
8.0
10.2
5.0
5.0

EV / EBITDA (x)
2010
2011
7.6
10.7
11.2
5.8
6.1
8.9
13.4
5.5
7.0
6.7
10.5
9.5
7.7
10.2
9.7
9.9
10.3
1.6
14.1
8.2
10.1
7.3
6.6
9.4
26.6
7.1
9.6
6.9
4.7
7.2
7.3
18.2
4.6
6.9
46.5
4.0
11.9
8.6
8.2
8.2
6.0
7.7
13.9
12.4
10.8
11.2
3.3
15.8
15.2
4.8
4.4
5.6
3.9
4.9
10.2
10.2
6.0
6.1
6.0
4.2
4.2

6.6
9.4
9.9
4.7
5.6
7.7
12.0
5.1
5.9
5.5
9.2
8.8
6.3
8.8
10.2
10.0
10.4
1.1
12.2
7.3
8.5
6.0
5.5
7.5
22.8
6.1
9.1
6.0
4.1
5.1
8.3
11.7
4.1
7.9
37.3
5.5
8.0
6.4
7.3
7.4
5.4
6.9
11.1
8.2
5.9
6.3
2.1
11.7
12.4
4.2
4.3
4.6
3.4
4.4
8.4
8.4
4.8
4.0
5.1
2.7
2.7

P/BV (x)
2010
2011
3.4
3.1
3.2
1.5
0.9
3.6
4.7
2.2
3.7
2.6
3.7
4.2
3.9
4.6
3.8
2.0
2.0
1.1
5.2
1.7
3.8
2.9
0.9
2.0
30.4
3.9
4.3
3.9
3.2
3.2
1.8
8.1
2.7
2.6
2.8
1.9
5.5
5.7
3.7
4.2
2.3
3.1
3.7
1.4
1.7
0.8
0.5
2.1
3.1
2.5
0.6
3.1
1.2
3.0
5.7
5.7
1.7
2.0
1.6
6.8
6.8

2.9
2.6
2.7
1.2
0.8
3.1
4.1
2.0
3.2
2.4
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.5
1.7
1.8
1.0
4.5
1.5
3.0
2.3
0.8
1.8
26.9
3.3
3.5
3.3
2.8
2.7
1.6
6.1
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.8
4.2
4.6
3.1
3.5
2.0
2.4
3.2
1.3
1.5
0.7
0.5
1.9
2.7
2.2
0.5
2.5
1.2
2.6
4.6
4.6
1.5
1.7
1.4
2.9
2.9

Dividend Yield
2010
2011
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
-0.9%
0.4%
2.9%
0.0
4.2%
3.8%
3.1%
2.2%
0.9%
0.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
2.6%
-1.1%
2.3%
0.8%
1.3%
0.0%
-2.9%
-2.4%
2.2%
-2.5%
0.0
2.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0
1.3%
4.0%
-2.1%
0.1
3.3%
5.2%
3.0%
4.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.3%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.0%
3.3%
3.8%
2.9%
2.9%
-1.2%
2.8%
-2.5%
0.0%
0.0%

2.5%
2.9%
3.0%
-0.6%
0.0%
3.9%
0.0
4.8%
4.7%
4.2%
3.8%
1.1%
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
1.6%
1.6%
2.9%
-1.3%
2.3%
1.1%
1.6%
0.0%
-3.8%
-2.8%
2.5%
-2.6%
0.0
2.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.0
5.2%
5.2%
-3.5%
0.0
2.6%
4.7%
3.4%
4.3%
1.0%
1.7%
0.5%
2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
3.2%
2.2%
0.0%
3.3%
3.8%
3.5%
3.5%
-1.4%
3.4%
-3.1%
0.0%
0.0%

D-RESEARCH
Equity Research
Tel (62-21) 350-9888, Fax (62-21) 350-1709
Head of Equity Research
Bonny Budi Setiawan
ext. 3500
bonny@danareksa.com
Banking & Plantation

Chandra Sahala Pasaribu

ext. 3520
chandra@danareksa.com
Telco, Cement, Utility

Metty F Wardhani
ext. 3509
mettyf@danareksa.com
Metal Mining, Coal, Heavy Equipment

Lydia Suwandi
ext. 3508
lydias@danareksa.com
Property & Construction

Merlissa Paramitha Trisno

ext. 3512
merlissapt@danareksa.com
Consumer

Peter Paulus Sutedja

ext. 3506
peterp@danareksa.com
Coal

Research Assistants
Edwin Sabam
ext. 3505
edwinsabam@danareksa.com

Yunita Tanzaria
ext. 3502
junita@danareksa.com

Indra Pradana Yudison

ext. 3504
indrapy@danareksa.com
Small Cap Stocks, Chemical, Automotive

Sentra Investasi Danareksa

SID Pusat
Ged Danareksa Lt.2
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No.14, Jakarta 10110
Tel (62-21) 350-9777, Fax (62-21) 350-6076
Head: Juli Hartawan ext.2884 dan 2831
julih@danareksa.com

SID LKBN Antara Jakarta

Gd. Wisma Antara Lt.7
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No.17, Jakarta 10110
Tel (62-21) 386-0099, Fax (62-21) 386-2299
Head: Irmina Merry Christine
merry@danareksa.com

SID Mangga Dua

Komp. Pertokoan Ruko Mangga Dua Mall
Jl. Mangga Dua Raya II/3, Jakarta 10730
Tel (62-21) 623-01988, Fax (62-21) 623-01878
Head: Rudy Ruslim
rudyr@danareksa.com

SID Pluit
Ruko Mega Mall Blok MG No. 39
Jl. Raya Pluit Permai, Jakarta 14450
Tel (62-21) 666-92777, Fax (62-21) 667-0063
Head: Upik Yuzarni
upik_y@danareksa.com

SID Pondok Indah

Plaza 5 Blok A/12, Jl. Margaguna Raya
Jakarta 12140
Tel (62-21) 739-6988, Fax (62-21) 739-6966
Head: Teuku Arfiansyah ext.8100
teuku@danareksa.com

SID BSD City

PT. Star Reksa Sekuritas
Ruko BSD Plaza Sektor IV, Blok RG No.9
Tangerang 15322
Tel (62-21) 531-52666, Fax (62-21) 537-0151
Head: Jasmi Indra
jasmi@danareksa.com

SID Puri Indah

PT. Kopedana Mitra Usaha
Komp. Rukan Sentra Bisnis Puri Indah
Jl.Puri Lingkar Dalam Blok T6/20, Jakarta 11610
Tel (62-21) 582-1212, Fax ( 62-21) 582-7494
Head: Gunawan Sumantri
gunawan@danareksa.com

SID Depok
PT. Reksa Depok Sekuritas
Ruko Margonda Residence No. 12
Jl. Margonda Raya, Depok 16426
Tel (62-21) 787-1688, Fax (62-21) 772-12255
Head: Sutrisno
sutrisno@danareksa.com

SID FEUI Depok

Gd. Pascasarjana Lt. Dasar
Fakultas Ekonomi UI, Depok 16424
Tel (62-21) 788-49149, Fax (62-21) 788-49151
Head: I Wayan Satia Jaya ext.110
satia@danareksa.com

SID Kelapa Gading

Jl. Raya Boulevard Barat Blok LC 6 Kav No.47
Jakarta 14240
Tel (62-21) 458-57199, Fax (62 -21) 453-5899
Head: Hendra Asril
hendra_asril@danareksa.com

SID Bandung
Gedung Pinsil
Jl. Gatot Subroto No1, Bandung 40262
Tel (62-22) 730 3588, Fax (62-22) 730 2511
Head: Maryadi / R. Yeni Radiani
maryadi@danareksa.com

SID Samarinda
Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto No. 80, Samarinda
Tel (62-541) 741-000, Fax (62-541) 743-666
Head: Yefrizal
yefrizal@danareksa.com

SID Semarang
Jl. Pandanaran No. 80A, Semarang 50241
Tel (62-24) 845-4555, Fax (62-24) 845-4222
Head: Alex Hartono Gunawan ext.76185
alexh@danareksa.com

Outlet SID UKSW Salatiga

Jl. Diponegoro No. 52 - 60, Salatiga 50711
Tel (62-298) 321-117
Head: Alex Hartono Gunawan
alexh@danareksa.com

SID FEB UGM Yogyakarta

Ged. Program Diploma FEB UGM
Jl. Prof. Notonegoro, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281
Tel (62-274) 551-181, Fax (62-274) 551-050
Head: Yahuda Nawa Yanukrisna ext.110
yahuda@danareksa.com

SID Bali - Kuta

PT. Brata Investama
Gedung Tapa Lt. II, Jl. Raya Kuta No. 27
Abianbase Kuta, Bali 80114
Tel (62-0361) 764-604, Fax (62-0361) 751-926
Head: I Kadek Swanjaya

SID Surabaya
Jl. Jend.Basuki Rachmat 88-92, Surabaya 60271
Tel (62-31) 534-5888, Fax (62-31) 535-2824
Head: Meiga Dewi
meiga@danareksa.com

Outlet SID FE UNAIR

Jl. Airlangga No. 4, Surabaya
Tel (62-31) 504-4882, Fax (62-31) 504-4940
Contact : Meiga Dewi / Farid Zanky
meiga@danareksa.com

SID Malang
Jl. Basuki Rahmat No 95, Malang 65111
Tel (62-341) 329-888, Fax (62-341) 369-252
Head : Upik Hariyanti
upik@danareksa.com

Outlet SID-PIPM Jember

Kompleks Jember Business Center Blok A-8
Jl. Trunojoyo No. 26, Jember
Tel (62-31) 412-898, 0815-19999-788
Contact : Meiga Dewi
meiga@danareksa.com

SID Palembang
Jl.Kapten A. Rivai No.406C, Palembang 30136
Tel (62-711) 365-050, Fax (62-711) 363-728
Head: Aidil Idham
aidili@danareksa.com

SID Medan
Jl. Pulau Pinang No 4 Medan 20111
Tel : (62-61) 4528100 Fax : (62-61) 4527100
Head: Melcy Rulandy, Hp 0815-85555-823
melcy@danareksa.com

SID Bogor
Gedung Setyajaya
Jl. Pajajaran No. 23, Bogor 16143
Tel (62-251) 8338-777, Fax (62-251) 8394-777
Head: Chairil Gunadharma ext.110
Direct: (62-251) 8393-999
chairilg@danareksa.com

Outlet SID IRAI

BCA Tower, Grand Indonesia Suite 4802
Jl. MH Thamrin No. 1, Jakarta 10310
Tel (62-61) 235-87011 Fax (62-61) 235-87012
Head: Irmina Merry Christine/ Frans Benny
fransb@danareksa.com

SID Makassar
Jl. Boulevard Ruko Ruby No.26, Panakkukang
Tel (62-411) 420-888, Fax (62-411) 420-588
Head: Edward Simanjuntak
edward_s@danareksa.com

SID LKBN Medan

JL Raden Saleh No 5 Medan 20111
Tel: (061) 453 9777 Fax: (061) 457 7877
Head: Martha Hidayat
marthah@danareksa.com

Outlet SID Tasikmalaya

Ruko Asia Plaza No. 8A
Jl. HZ Mustofa, Tasikmalaya - Jawa Barat
Tel: (0265) 929 0997 Fax: (0265) 331820
Head: Indra Mas'ari
indram@danareksa.com

Outlet SID Kebun Jeruk

Jl. Panjang No. 200, Kebun Jeruk
Jakarta Barat, 11530
Tel (62-21) 536-75931,536-75846, Fax (62-21) 453 7
Contact: Budi Agung
budia@danareksa.com

SID Solo
Jl. Slamet Riyadi No. 328, Solo 57141
Tel (62-271) 722-632 Fax (62-271) 722-894
Head: Yulius Kurniawan
yuliusk@danareksa.com

Sumber informasi dari riset harian ini diambil dari Bloomberg, media massa, dan Danareksa
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