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p p

H H:
H

p :
Robert Fischer
Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders
1993

P:
p p p pp .
p p p
p p (.),
(,), p - p
(pp, 6,478,535.23 -> 6478535.23). p "p
" "p" p . p
p p p p p p p,
p "p", "".
H
1 HH H

pp pp
p

1
1
3
6

2 H H H
p

p

11
14
18
20
21

3 H
p 5 p p
p 5 p
1, 2 3 0.618
p p

25
26
29
33
40
42

4
H p
p
pp
pp p p
pp pp p
pp p
p

45
46
49
50
53
54
68
70
70

5 H
3
5
p

73
76
87
93
93

6 HHH H
p
pp
p pp

95
95
100
102

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p
p p
pp p

103
104
106
113

p
p

121
122
124

8 HH H H
p p
pp: p

127
127
130
132

9
p p
pp p
p

133
134
138
152
161

H A

163

H B

HH H

165

167

------------------------1

1
HH H

HH H H
p . ,
, . p p p
pp : , p, , p,
pp , p . Hp ,
, , p p,
, p . , , ,
p - .
p pp
p - p , p
pp. p p , p
p "p" pp.
p p p p p
pp, pp , , p .
p, p .
(1175.).
p. p
p
p

p.

:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,...

------------------------2
, , 1, 1,

p. H
?
(p
)
p
p .
pp, p ,
p p p .
p . -
p p (pp, 13:8), p ,
pp 1.61803398875... p p
p, . H p ,
, p. p
p, p 1.618.
,
(p ) pp. p
p , , p
p p.
p "
p p". p p p
( = 1.618).
,
pp ,
p . pp
p p p, p p, p
p, :
1:1
2:1
3:2
5:3
8:5

=
=
=
=
=

1.0000,
2.0000,
1.5000,
1.6667,
1.6000,

0.6180
0.3820
0.1180
0.0486
0.0180

p p
p
.
H ,
p.
1.618 p p
, p p.
pp: p p
p.
p
------------------------3
p p 1.618 (1 : 1.618). H
, . p p, .
p , p p
, p , ,
, 1.
2
5 = (3 x

8) + 1

2
8 = (5 x 13) - 1
2
13 = (8 x 21) + 1
p. p
p , p p. ,
pp p p,
pp , .

,

p
,
. ,
,
- . p
.

.
, p
. p, ,
pp , p ,
,
. ,
.
- ,
,
, , ,
(. 1-1).

------------------------4
p
356 x 440 / 2 = 78320
p
280 x 280 = 78400
. 1-1 p p .
783.3 (238.7 ), 484.4 (147.6 ). p, ,
=1.618. 484.4 5813 (5-8-13) -
. ,
=1,618.

,
- , .
,
.
1.618 .

H p p p
pp , p
p. , , p
p p p. pp
p p pp =1.618 p p. 1-2a b.
H p p (p. 1-2a) p, .
p p 16 , p 42 p - 68 .
p:

16 x 1.618
16 + 26
26 x 1.618
42 + 26

=
=
=
=

26
42
42
68

------------------------5

. 1-2
= 1.618
pp p.
(:
Mysteries of the Mexican Pyramids,
by Peter Thomkins
/p
, " p"/ (New York: Harper & Row, 1976) p. 246,
247. p pp.)


p p
p p p.
sneezewort' (p. 1-3). pp
p . pp p ,
p p .
p ,
????????????????

------------------------6

. 1-3. ,


p sneezewort.
(:
The Divine Proportion,
by H. E. Huntley
/. . ,
" pp"/ (New York: Dover, 1970) p. 163. p
pp.)
p
p
p
H
p

3
5
13
34
55

89

p p
- pp pp , pp.
, p p , , p
, p . ,
, .
HH H
p p ,
p p p p

p p p. p ,
p p p
p

p.

------------------------7
p, ,
p - p. ,
p pp
, p p.
p
p pp
p . p p p ,
p , .
p

p .
p
p p p p
(p. 1-4). p AB L C .
p AC CB p a b. C ,
L:a p a:b, C - p AB. L:a a:b
" ". p , C p AB
p, p 1.618 0.618.

. 1-4

p.

p
p p p pp
(p. 1-5). " p" ,
p - p . p AB p ABCD
p
p
p E
p. 1-5
.
p EC, p p p AB F. pp
p AF p p FG p p p DC
G. AFGD - p. p,
p 1.618 p p p. ,
pp - :
1.618:1
------------------------8

. 1-5

p.

p pp p p
p. p p ; pp p
p - p pp. p 5 . . ., p
p p, p . pp
p. - p
p.
p p
p,
p p p p, p " p" - p
(p. 1-6). p p p
p. p pp
. p ,
.
H p. 1-6 p p p (nautilus
pompilius).
p
p

"p"
p p. p p p pp p ,
p .
p
p p p

p
ABCD
(p. 1-7)

AB:BC = :1. p E, " pp" AB, pp


AB p p EF,
p AEFD p.
p EBCF - . p p EBGH,
p HGCF - p. p p,
p p , p p O
.
------------------------9

. 1-6 p p. (: The Divine Proportion, by H. E.


Huntley
/. . , " pp"/
(New York: Dover, 1970)
p. iv. p pp.)
p O p p, p
p pp D, E, G, J... (p p ,
, p).
p. 1-7,
p p p p
p, pp, DE, EG, GJ... p p
. p p d,
p p p d. p

. 1-7 p p p. (: The Divine Proportion,


by H. E. Huntley /. . , " pp"/ (New York: Dover,
1970) p. 101. p pp.)
------------------------10

. 1-8 p . (: The Divine Proportion, by H. E.


Huntley /. . " pp"/ (New York: Dover, 1970) p. 71.
p pp.)
p 2d ( ), - 3d,
, p 1d, 1d, 2d, 3d, 5d, 8d, 13d..., p
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13,...
p pp, p. p
p ; p p p ( p),
p . p p -
pp.
p

pp p. H
p p , pp p, p ,
, , .
- .
p pp. p p
p (p. 1-8),
p
p :
2
y = 4ax
P p F () ZM (pp).
p p .
------------------------11

2
H H

H p. p
1930 . p , -.
p p 1939 p
p Financial World Magazine. p p
p, - p p.
, , p -
p

, () p
(p). p, pp p,
, .
pp pp p
:
* pp
* "p "
* p
* pp p.
p
, p p.

p
p p

------------------------12
p, ,

p p, p
. 1977 p p ,
p p.
p, p !
p pp p, , p,
p ...
: " pp pp ,
p. pp - , p p,
, pp, , .
p pp p."*
p pp. : "
,
p

p,

p,
p
pp , p , p
p . p p, p - p
, , p pp" (Elliott, p. 40).
p p
. p p
, .

, p. : "
p p : p, p
, "
(Elliott, p. 48).
ppp, p
, p p ,
, p, . p p p.
p , "pp" . ,
, p p p.
p , "...p p " p" "
p"" (Elliott, p. 48). H p. 2-1 p p "
", p p . 1, 3 5
p p "p " .
p 1, 3 5 p " ".
*The Complete Writings of R. N. Elliott with Practical Application from
J. R. Hill. J. R. Hill, Commodity Research Institute, N. Carolina, 1979
/ p p . H. . p p
p . . . . . . , - p
, . . p, 1979/ ( p
), p. 84.
-----------------------13

. 2-1. p
p .

"p" p

p p p , p
pp . - ,
p, . p, p p p, p
. H .

------------------------14
HH

p pp p p 2 p 1,
4 "ppp" p p 1. ,
(p. 2-2).

. 2-2 (a) p ;
(b) p p ;
(c) ;
(d) p .

pp
pp 2 4 p p
. pp 2 4 p p.
p p. , , 2 p,
4 , p, p. 2-3.

. 2-3
p.

(a) 2 p;

4 ;

(b) 2 ; 4

------------------------15

pp

,
p p p p p.
p p pp 2 4.
p pp:
1. p p (p p p).

(a)

(b) p

(c)

2. p (p p).

(a)

(b) p

(c)

3. p p.

(a) p

(b) p

"H p, pp p,
," (p.53). p p
.
------------------------16
, p pp
p. pp,
p:
1. pp p

2. pp

3. p pp

p: " , ,
c, p p" (p. 51).
p
c ,
, ,
p p -
p.
pp , p p
:
* p c

* pp
p)

(. . p,

* .
pp p p
p p. , p , pp
p .
------------------------17

" p 1, 3 5,
" (Elliott, p. 55). H p. 2-4 2-5 ,
, p p p.

. 2-4 (a) p p p; (b) p


p p p; (c) p p p.

. 2-5 (a) p p p; (b) p


p p p; (c) p p
p.
" , pp ,
p , . p p
p " (Elliott, p. 55). Hpp,
p. 2-6 p p, .
, p pp:
* ;
pp.

------------------------18

. 2-6 (a) p p p;
p p p.

(b)

* p,
, p p.
* p p
4 5.

pp p

3,

, pp
p. p p
. p
p p p p "p p".
, "pp
" (p.48). , p , pp

p p.

pp pp.
p ,
.
HH H


p p. : " p,
p pp, pp
p "", p p, , 5000 .
p p "
(Elliott, p.42). 1 p :
------------------------19
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
p p
:
1.618 (1:1.618 = 0.618)
: "
, 144 - , p .
p 144."
2-1.

p. p: " , .
p p p
, " (pp. 45, 129).
p p ,
p p p ,
p
. pp pp p. 2-7.
, p p 3 , p
5 . , p 5 , p 8 . p
9 13 . p
p
p p
, ,
. - " ", p
, p p p
p. " pp" ,

p p, p, p
p pp p.
. 2-1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
p
p

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
5
3
8
p
21
13
34

89
55
144
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------20

. 2-7
p .

pp

H H
p, p
p p p p, p ,
p p p . p

p 5.
p p p
() 2 4. p p p p
3 (p. 2-8).
: " p [p] p
5 p p . ,
5 p , pp
p p, 1
p p . 5 ,
p p " (p. 60). p
p , p ,
p. 2-9.
------------------------21

. 2-8

p p 5.

. 2-9 (a) 5 p p p ;
(b) 5 p p p p
.

H
p . pp p
"pp" p p p pp p
" ". p pp
p. p p p, :
* H pp?
* ?
* pp ?
* p 1, 3 5?
------------------------22
p: " p

pp
p p" (p. 107). p
: " p p
, p p p.
p p .
p p p, p
pp pp pp, p p
p" (p. 137).
p p p
15 p p, pp
p.
pp , pp .
p p p , , pp,
:
* pp p .
* pp.
* p pp.
p p p.
pp p 1, 3 5
. p p p p
. , . .

p p: "p
p
p , " "
p p p " (Elliott,
p. 33).
p p p. p
p p. ,
p. p
, p : "
p p [-] - p " (Elliott,
p. 167). "p p p
p, p.
-

(p. 165).
"p
[
] - , p p
p p p p p"

(p. 180).
"p
, p
p" (Elliott, p. 186).
, ,
. p pp
------------------------23

. 2-10

p B C .

. , p p.
, p .
p p p p
: " p p p p , . p
p - p p, p
, p" (Elliott, p. 112).
p. p ,
, p pp .
p B C,
p p. , p p,
(p. 2-10).
p p p.
p B C,
, p p
p (p. 2-11).

. 2-11
.

------------------------24

p. p p
p, .
.

p
p p, p. p
p, p " p".
.
p . p
. , p
p ,
. p pp p , p
p p.

------------------------25

3
H

p p .

p - " p p -
p p , . p p
- p p, p , p"
(p. 112). , , p,
p p, p p
p.
pp
p p p
. p , pp,
p. "p "
.

p
p p p, , . p . ,
p , p p:
* p 5 1.
* 3 - .
* p p 4 p p 1.
-----------------------26

P P

= 0.618

. 3-1 p p p
7 1989. 30 1992. (: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)
p p
p p p p (p. 3-1).
H p. 3-1 :

* 1 79.80 70.12
* 2 70.12 74.31
* 3 74.31 61.95
* 4 61.95 70.48
* 5 70.48 55.25

H H H 5 H H
p 5, p p. p
p p (
) 2 4. p p p p
-----------------------27

. 3-2

p p p p.

3 (p. 3-2).
p,

p p. p
p 5.
1
" p p
p p " (Elliott, p. 60).

p p p p,
p, p . p
p p .
2
" 5 p , pp
p p, 1
p p . 5 ,
p p " (p. 60).
p p p p
(p. 3-3a), p p,
p p p , p
. p , p p
p. p p p p
(p. 3-3b).
-----------------------28

. 3-3 (a) p p p p;
(b) p p p p.
3
" p p, p
p. 112). p :

"

(Elliott,

* p .
* pp a,b.
* p, c p .
p p. 3-4. p ,
p p. p p
:
* p p p,
* p p p , p
. (Hpp, p. 3-5 ,
.)

. 3-4

p pp .

-----------------------29

HH = 0.618

. 3-5 p 1 p 25 1992.
p pp a-b-c. (: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)

H p :
* p p, pp a-b-c,

* .
pp , p.

H H H 5 HH H
5 p p
. ,

,
1.618 0.618, p
.

p p,
p p p (. p. 3-8), p
. H p , , p .
-----------------------30

pp p.
p p ,
"", pp , p
p p p.
, pp, p p p +50,
+100, -30, -10, +70, -20, +25, 50
,

pp

185 . p 40 20 p p 50 ,
, pp.

, p

p p pp. p p p p
"", p .
p p ,
p p.
p, .
: "H p p p (range) ,
, , . Hp,
p - p
, p p p " (p. 139).
p p p
p, ,

p
p
. pp
p p p, p
100 . p 200
. p p p
p p.
p p

p p,
p

p
p
p p. Hpp, p
100 , p p
100 ( pp
p 100 ). p. 3-6.
p

, p
pp. H p p
. : "p
------------------------31

. 3-6

p p .

. , , - " (p. 84),


p , , , .
p p p 200 .
p p p , p,
3.
p : pp
p p 38% (pp
0.618) p .
p p p (profit margin)
200 .
, pp
p - p . p

. 3-7 (a) 200


1000 p 38%.

p 38%;

(b)

-----------------------32
1000 , 5 p pp
a-b-c - p p (p. 3-7). p
p.
1 1.618
p p p p
p.

p, p
p p. p
1, pp p p
p (p. 3-8).
, p p , p
5 p 1.618
(p. 3-9). H p p,
p , , p p
, - . H , p
5, p 1.618 p p
p (p. 3-8):
H 1
H 1

79.20
70.12
9.08

9.08 x 1.618 = 14.69


70.12 - 14.69 = 55.43 -

, 5 55.25.

H
. 3-8 p p p
1992. 1.618 p 1
(: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)

7 1989. 30
p 5.

-----------------------33

. 3-9 (a) 1.618 p 1 p 5;


(b) 1.618
p
a p c

pp.
H 1, 2 3 HH H 0.618
, p 3, 5
p p 0.618 (p. 3-10).
, p 3 ?
* 3 1
* p p 4 2
(p p p) (p. 3-10).

. 3-10 p
p 5.

1, 2, 3

0.618

-----------------------34
p p p p 5
, p p p ,
0.618, pp:
H 1
H 3

17.26 x 0.618 =
61.96 - 10.66 =

79.20
61.95
17.26
10.66
51.29 -

,
p :

1.618

1 x 1.618 =
p x 0.618 =

0.618,

55.25 (. p. 32)
51.29

, p p ?
p . p ,
p, , p p.
, p ,
p p. , -

p (55.25 55.29), p. 3-8. p


, p, p, pp
p .
p . p , p,
p - (stop-loss rule),
p
p
(re-entry rule),
p (profit target)

p- (trailing stops). .
p . , p
p p p. :
1. p p , p
p p, . ""
.
2. p
p. H
p .

p
p p p

-----------------------35
pp, p ,
p , p p . p p
p , p ,
? (trade-off), p -
p pp, - p 5. (
p .)
p , p ,
p pp a-b-c, p.
p a b p c, p
(valley)
p
(p. 3-11).

p
p p.

. 3-11 (a) p p p
c; (b) p p c.

p . ,
p . p p p
(p. 3-12).
p, -
p , pp a-b-c p
p p. p, p
, p p , p p
p p
( p
p), p. 3-13.
, p . p p (stop out),
p p 5. pp p
------------------------36


. 3-12 p
Omega Research, Inc.)

HH = 0.618

pp a-b-c.

(: TradeStation,

pp , p 5
p pp. p p p p
p.
p -. p
- (stop-loss). p p - p (price square). p
p, p p .

. 3-13 (a) , p p ,
p p; (b) p ,
p p , p p.
-----------------------37

. 3-14

- - "p" / .

p p, p p,
( p) ( p).
p p " p" , p
p p p p
p -. p p -
(p. 3-14). p p,
p, p "p". -
( p):
* H p p,
p (short signal),

* p p,
(long signal).

(stop out) , p p /
p. , p p p -
pp, p p p
, p .

p p p - /
p / (p. 3-15).
H p p - ,
. p p p p,
- . p - . ,
p p - pp p, p
pp.

. 3-15

p - p .

-----------------------38

. 3-16 p -,
p p p.

p p

p p . , p
p (. p. 3-16). p
p p .
p p p p (short
side), p p , p p
( p).
p p . p p ,
p p p , p
.

p p p
(p. 3-8)
p p:

1. H
p. 3-8 ( p p p)

79.80, p 55.25.
2. p
p
0.618) p :

38%

79.80 - 55.25 = 24.55


38% 24.55 = 9.32
55.25 + 9.32 = 64.57 -
p p p 38%
p p . p p p
p p 38% p p .
p. 3-17.
-----------------------39

. 3-17
p.

38% p

pp 38% - , p p
. 50% pp p.
p- (trailing-stops). D p p
p : "H p p."
, p p p
("blow out") p ! p
p

p-. p p :
* p
* p p p.
, p .
p , p p p-
p p p p.
p- p (p. 3-18) p

p p.
p p- ( pp p )
p p - p (p. 3-19).
p, p , p , p
.
H
p p p
p.
H
"" p -.

p . , p
p p.
-----------------------40

. 3-18 p p p- p
p p.

. 3-19

p- p p .

HH H
, p p p,
, p "p" (strike price)
(expiration month). p ,
p (options premium) p p .

p p , p p - " p"
("time value").
, p
p p:
* p p
p (p. 3-20).

-----------------------41

. 3-20 p
p .

(put options)

* p , , a b
p, p c,
p , p , c
p p p / p (p. 3-21).
p p p ,
p (call)
p p (put)
p. p p p.
p p p. . 3-22
p p p (call
option futures position).

. 3-21
.

p p

-----------------------42

. 3-22 (a) 1.618 p 3.


p p ;
(b) 1.618 p 3.
p , p p , p
p.

p p .
, p p,

p "?
p ?" (strike price in the money or at the money). p
p .
p , p p p
p. p ,
p .
p .
p p, p
p 10 (pp, 50.00 60.00),
p .
p .
H
p . H
"pp" p p p ,
. p "pp" p
p.

p
, p p, ,
------------------------43
p. : " p
p - p p ,
. p p - p
p, p , p" (p. 112). H p p
p p p ,
p 1 3 (p ).
p p p p, :
" p -
, , pp:
* p ( 5 p),
* p p ,
* p p " (p. 171).
p p p
p p p p ,
p. H p
.
p. p p
.
.
p p p , 5
,
p p
1.618 0.618.
p p
p . H p -
p. :
* p - p p.
* p .

* p- p p.
,
p
p pp.
p p, p.
p p p p - p p
p p.
-----------------------44

p p p p
(outright) p , ;
p p .
, p p p p, p
p p p p. (?)
(strike price at the money or in the money) p p p
p .
-----------------------45

, p p.
, p , p pp ,
p .
p: "pp , p
p" (p. 48). p , pp,
p p p, p pp p
.
p p pp:
1. ,
2.
3. p.
pp:
4. pp 7
5. p pp 11 .
:

", ,

c,

p p"

(p. 51),

------------------------46
pp p. p p p
p c,
:
* H , p pp,
* c,
* .
, p p ,
p p . , p p
pp, p pp .
pp p.
"p" p p,
p
p p.
, p.
p,
p p.
HH
p p p, p :
1. 3 p .
2. pp
p .

H p p p. p,
p A B, p p
p p p.
pp p p p p p
p. 4-1 pp :
* 1, 3, 5, a c p .
* 2, 4 b p p .
-----------------------47

. 4-1 pp
.

p p : " ,
pp , , p "
" , 3 p, 1 5"
(pp. 56, 57). p ,
p, :
* p p ,
* p pp 2,
* p p .
, "p" p p p
, p p p
p p p (
).
H p. 4-2 p ,
P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7 P8.
-----------------------48

. 4-2

p p .

p , p
p p. p p , :
* 1 .
* 3 , 1.
* p pp 2.
* p p .
*


1.

-,

p p
p p . p
p , p p p
p p. H p p p

.
p

, p p
, , .
,
p , .

------------------------49
p ,
p "p p" (whipsaws).
. 1
(pp, 2000 p p ),

p, p p p
pp 3. p: "H p p (range
chart) p , #1,
p p. H p p p ,
, , . Hp,
p - p
, p p p " (p. 139).
H , p p
. p. p p
p, p , , p
p, p p . p
p p p 50 ,
p .
H H
pp p , p
3. H p. 4-3a A, p. 4-3b - B.
p , p pp :
* pp p p
* pp p p p.

. 4-3

(a) H 3; (b) B.

-----------------------50

. 4-4

p p .

, p 3.

A
p. 4-3a
5

pp , B
p. 4-3b?
, , ,
, p
p. p,
.
H p p p ,
p. 4-4,
X1, X2, X3, X4, X5. p p
p p (p. 4-4), p
p p p p. p p
p. 4-5, p Dow Jones Industrials 1960. 1980.
p

p, p
p , p
p. - p p
p .
H
H ppp p pp p
pp p p .
-----------------------51

"H H H H HH "

. 4-5 Dow Jones 30 Industrials ( p).


(: Commodity Research Bureau, New York.)
p
(p. 4-6), 0.618, 1.0 1.618, p p
p :
38% - p 0.618/1.618
50% - pp 1.000
62% - p 1.0/1.618.
, , p
, pp . p
pp p p , p
(p. 4-7).
p , pp p.
pp p 38%, 50%, 62% 100%
-------------------------

52

. 4-6

pp 38%, 50%, 62%.

p 1. p p
p p p , p ,
p
p
p. p p , pp, 62%,
.
p, pp p :
*
p
"pp p").

(pp,

" p"

* p.
* , p p p.
* p.
*
p).

. 4-7 (a) p
pp 62%.
------------------------

(. . , ,

pp

38%;

(b) p

53
H H H
p, p pp
p. p p p
. p p,
pp - S&P 500.
p, p. 4-8. p
p.
p p , p
p. p pp - p
p 1970 1980. p,
. p 500
1000 (p. 4-9). p ,
.

. 4-8 p Dow Jones 30 Industrials


(: Commodity Quote Graphics, 1992)
-----------------------54
"H H H H HH "

1982 1992.

. 4-9 Dow Jones 30 Industrials ( p).


(: Commodity Research Bureau, New York.)
H H H
p pp
, p pp p,
pp p pp .
p p ,
, p , p
p p .

pp
p p p ,
p - p p p . p pp
p p, "pp" p ,
p. 4-10. p p p
p, p. 4-11.
-----------------------55

. 4-10

pp p p.

p , p pp
p.

,
p p-,
p p p p .
p , p p,
p p p.
. p p p
p,
p 400
(p pp);
p p p 400 .
. pp
,
p.

p p
p p -

p . p p 1
( p p ), 0.618

. 4-11

pp p.

------------------------56

(p. 4-12). p ,
.
pp (p. 4-12) p p :
1 p
p 0.618
pp 1
, p p

. 4-12
1.

0.618

57.20 - 50.10 =
0.618 x
57.20 +

7.10

7.10 = 4.38
4.38 = 61.68

. 4-13
p p p
p p.

p p 61.68,
p.
p p p,
. p
p, p pp p, p.
:
,
p p, p , , , p
, p .
- p, p p p p
p.
-----------------------57

. 4-13 p p p 1991. 1992.

p
p
pp . (: System Writer Plus, Omega Research, Inc.)
p -.

p -

p, p p ,
p p- ( p - p).
p.

pp p ,
ppp p p pp .
p p p,
p, p p p
p, p .
, p,
H
,
p p p .
pp p , pp
( p, slippage (p
?) (= , p, ) ):

N1
N2
N3
N4
N5

------------------------58

175.40
178.90
176.80
173.10
177.10

182.38
176.10
173.12
175.98
179.57

+6.98
+2.78
+2.47

-3.68
-2.88

N6
N7

p 172.50
172.06

169.16
p 174.98

+3.34
+2.92

p , p p,
p p p. H p p, ,
p p 1992. (p. 4-13), p p
p pp .
p p
p p, p p,
pp , p p pp. p
p p : "p
."
p p p ,
p. 4-13, p p p p
p.
.

pp pp,

. pp p
p , p p "p p"
(whipsaws). , p
p pp 1, 2000 p
. p pp, p
pp, p 3 p p.
pp.

p p pp p :

* pp

62%

* p
p.

p p (stopping out)

pp p p p, p
pp. H - ,
pp p . 4-1 p p
-----------------------59
4-1 , pp p
------------------------------------------------------------
p

pp %%
p /
p
------------------------------------------------------------100-200
62
3-4
200-400
38
3-4
200-400
50
2
200-400
62
1
400-800
38
3
400-800
50
1
400-800
62
1
-------------------------------------------------------------

, p p. 4-13.
p.
p , p. ,
p p, p
:

50-150
150-300
300-600

pp p ,
p . p p p .
, ,
pp p .
, p
p , ,
p .
p . p p
. 3 - p.
, p p p p.
p, pp,
(thrust), ,
p . p. 4.14. p pp
4-1.
-----------------------60

. 4-14 (a) , pp, p


p ; (b) p , p pp,
p ; (c) , pp, p

p .
1983.
p
p
p

p p . p,
p p , p
p (p p).
p. 4-15.
p -. p
p -. p , p,

. 4-15 p ,

p, p p p.

------------------------61
p . p p p
pp p :
* p p pp, p
* pp
p p.

p -, pp,
p (valley), p p
p p, p p.
p p
(p. 4-16).

. 4-16 pp , p
p p p pp .
p p .
p p
-. p - ,
(stopping out) . p pp, p,
p p p
p . p p p p ,
, p, p
p p ( ).

p

p. H p .
p p, p p.
p p . p p
p , 3 .
-----------------------62

. 4-17 p p p 1991. 1992.


/p p p pp
. (: System Writer Plus, Omega Research, Inc.)
pp p. p pp p
p p (p. 4-17). p
p pp:
* - 400 ,
* pp - 30%,
* p
p,

pp

* p - 0.618,
* p - - p p- .
p pp :
N1
N2
N3

175.40
p 178.90
176.80

------------------------63

p 182.38
176.10
p 173.12

+6.98
+2.78
-3.68

N4
N5
N6
N7

173.10
177.10
172.50
172.06

175.98
179.57
169.16
174.98

+2.47
+3.34
+2.92

-2.88

p pp, p p
,
p pp p
:
* ,
* p p
* p pp .
p,
p. , p
p , p 3
pp 5. , pp
p , p, p p
. p p p
p , pp p .
pp p
pp p p
- . H p p p
p p:
* ,
* p -,
* p.
p .
, . p p
p p (slippage)
p p p. p, p
(volatility) p "" p ,
"" .
-----------------------64
p , p ,
, , "p (hit)
p p." p, ,
, p, p - p
(equity curve).
p p p /? ,
. p - pp p
p,
p


p.
p pp p p p:
* p p pp.

* p, pp p .
* p -.
* p p p .
* p p p .
p p p p, p p
p p . 17
p p , p p, p
. pp p p
10 p 1991. 19 1992. p p pp.
. "" p
.
p
p
p , :
* , 400
p .

* p, p , p
, p, p
p .
* pp 30% , p
p
(
500 ,
pp 150 ).
pp ,
p. 4-18.

p,

-----------------------65

. 4-18

p pp p .

p -. p p p ,
p - p p p
p p p.
p,
p p p -
p . , p -
. p p p
p p p -.
p .

p p:

* p p p,

* p p p,
, .

p p, p p

.
p , p, p p
p. p p p 10
, p p. H p p 90
, pp p , p
p. p p, p
pp p, p p
p. 4-19.
-----------------------66

. 4-19

p 1991.

1992.

/p pp p.
(: System Writer Plus, Omega Research, Inc.)
p p .
p
p
p 1991. 1992. p. 4-20 ,
. p p
:
* ,
* ,
* p, p ,
*
* p
p p.

pp p p
:

p
.

* p p 92
* p p 108 p .
-----------------------67

26 H 21.11.91 19.05.92
H H 4.00 5.00
30% 100%
--------------------- H H------------------------------02.12.91
03.01.92

172.80 : H H 175.40 170.80


178.90 : H 170.80 183.46

43.48%
36.02%

4.60 H
12.66 H

...

----------------------- H----------------------------------
09.12.91
06.01.92

(SE)
HH (LE)

175.80
181.70

0
0.30
1.14

1
0.80
1.20

175.74,
182.80,

...

HH:
:

8
7.32
7
7.56
24

H.
0.915,
1.080

8
7

9.78
12.60

H 21.11.91 19.05.92

H.
1.223,
1.800,
124

. 4-20 p p p ,
p, p. 4-19. (: System
Writer Plus, Omega Research, Inc.)
p p . pp
, p p (retracements)
p, pp pp .
p p p
, p p p,
p . p p "", p
. p .

, p p
. - p
p.
-----------------------68
HH H
" p" p pp p
50% - 62%. , 10
(pp, 60.00 - 70.00) p, p p
. p pp ,
, . Hp , p
50% - 62%, p
p .
pp pp, p
p.
p
p , .
, p p , p
p, p p -
, p p p (p p).
p -
p p, ,
p -. p - , .
p p
, p ,
pp p .

p p
pp 50% p
p , p ,
p "pp p." p
p p 50% pp .
. 4-21 p. p p, 50%
p p A B (p p p
).
p p-
p-

, p p
. p p .

------------------------

69

. 4-21

50% p p pp 62%.

p p
p.

p p p p

pp p
H p p, p. 4-22, p
62% p. A, B C. A B
p p p p , C
p p .

. 4-22 p
p pp 62%.

1989.

1992.

-----------------------70
p p, p pp,
p , p p . pp
p - p p
p p-.
p. 4-22 p p, p
p, pp p
p p .
H H H
p p ,
p p p. p
p p p p ,
p p .
pp "? p
?" (strike price in the money or at the money)
p p p ,
p.
p p pp p
pp 50%.

pp
.
p.
H
p pp. p p p
pp , p p. p p
p p p
. p .
p p - ,
p p p ,
3 .
, p
p. pp p , p
p pp . p
pp , p pp p p
p . p p
, p.
p p p, p
p .
-----------------------71
p

pp

p , p p ,
p. ,
pp p . p ,
, p pp 50% - 62%
.

p
p,

""
p .
p p p
p p pp 62% .
pp - pp
, , , p,
p .
-----------------------72
//

-----------------------73

5
H

- . p p
p
p (run-away markets), " p" (opening gaps),
p p (limit up and limit down moves) p
(high volatility). p
p p,
p
p p p.
: " p
, , " (p. 55). p. 5-1 5-2.

. 5-1 (a) 1 p p; (b) p 3


p p; (c) p 5 p p.
-----------------------74

. 5-2 (a) 1 p p; (b) p


3 p p; (c) p 5 p p.
" p ,
pp" (p. 55). p. 5-3.
p : "
p, pp p p .
p p 3, pp 4
5" (p. 55) (. p. 5-4).
pp p 4.
. 5-5 pp .

. 5-3 (a) pp
pp p p.

p p;

(b)

------------------------75

. 5-4 1.618 p 1 p
5.

. 5-5 1.618 p 1 p
5. 0.618 p 3
p 5.
------------------------76

p p p
, p p
pp p .
p, ,
p, p p . , p
p, p, p p,
p p. p p, ,
60.00, p, , pp, 70.00.
p, , , ,
p p 70.00, p ,
p . p ,
.
p
p p. , p ,
p .
p p,
1.618. H p p

p, ,
p; p, p
. p p, p
. , p,
p . p p,
p p, :
* ( ),

* 1.618
* p .
H H 3
p: "p p p p 3
p p" (p. 18).
pp p 3: " p
p, p p p
p" (p. 57).
3 p
p. 5-6. p (1.618 x 1)
pp.
------------------------77

. 5-6 p p 1992. 1.618


p 1 p p 3.

p p 3,

1. p 1:
2.

$5.93 - 5.74

= $0.19

1 1.618:
3. :

$0.19 x 1.618 = $0.31


$5.93 + 0.31

= $6.24

, p p p $6.39
. . 5-6 , p $6.41
p $6.05.
p p p, p
pp p p . , p
:
* p , .
* p .
* H p p .
------------------------78
. 5-7 p .

. 5-7 (a)
p
;
(b)
p ; (c) p p p .
pp p p ,

.
p p
p p.

p p. , :
* , p p .
* pp p .
-------------------------

79

. 5-8

p pp .

* p , p (
1.618) .
* ,
p p,
p p, 200 ,
p - 400 .
, pp
p p p p.
, , p p .
p p :
* p p p
(pp, 200 p p).
.
* p p, p p p, p ,
p p.
. 5-8 p pp .
, pp 38%,
p ( p. 5-9) p, p ,
p p (p. 5-10).

. 5-9

pp 38%.

------------------------80

. 5-10 pp 38%
p , p p.



0.618, 1.0 1.618. p p (.
p. 5-11). p p 1.618.
p " pp" p p
, 1.
. p
,

p
,
, . , p, p
p p - p .
p
p p.
p p, p
p. p p , p
.

. 5-11 ?

------------------------81
p p p p
, p p p (
p p) p p ,
p p, ,
p p (p ).
p. 5-12.

. 5-12 (a) p p 3 p;
(b) p 3 p.
-------------------------

82

. 5-13 p 1989. 1992.


p p 3, p p
4 .
p - p p p p.
, p p . . 5-13
pp p , p
p p p.
p , :
* p p , p p,
* p p p, ,
p p.
p -
p p p
-. p , p -
(tick) p p.
p p.
. 5-14 p p -.
------------------------83

. 5-14 p -
p p.

p p
p ,
1. p , 1
200 p p,
p p . , p
p p p 5.
p p, 1 p 400
( ) . p
p , , p
p p ,
p . , p
p. p p p
p p p pp b.
c p p p.
p . p
p , p .
p p p (p. 5-15).
p 1,
3


pp. 1
p. p ,
p p, p p p
.
------------------------84

. 5-15
p.


p . , p "",
p , .
p .
p
p p p .
p 50% p 1
3. p pp
p . p p "p 50%" p,
p p. p. 5-16.
p p ? H p p p. 5-16
1 A = 70.00 3 B = 54.00.
p , 50% p A B p
p B.
H 1 3
p 50% p
, p

70.00 - 54.00 = 16.00


A - B = 8.00
62.00

p p p 62.00.
, p p . H p. 5-17
p p.
------------------------85

. 5-16

"50%" p p .

p-
p p p
p-. p p
p , p pp. p p
, p p
.
p- ( p ) p
p , p
p p. H p p ,
p .

. 5-17

p p .

------------------------86

. 5-18

p-

p, p , ,
, p p- (p. 5-18).
p p (p. 5-19) pp pp ,
p p. A,
p- - B.

. 5-19 p p 1991. p 1992.


pp p 3. p A,
B.
------------------------87
H H 5
, p p
p p 5, p.
, p p.
: " , pp ,
p , " (p. 55).
p p 5, p. 5-20.

. 5-20

5.

, p p: "
p p , p
pp" (p. 55). p. 5-21.
p " 5 p
p" (p. 56) . p. 5-22.
, pp, p,
. p ,
:
1. , p 5.
2. p.
------------------------88

. 5-21

pp.

p p p
p. 5-23.
H p p p
p, p . - p
p , .
, p /. ,
p, p,
p .

. 5-22

p .

-------------------------

89

. 5-23 p p 1992.

p

pp a-b-c.
p

p
p

p
5
p . p
p p p.
p p p:
" p p, p " (p. 112).
p: " p , . .
1, 3 5, " (p. 55). ,
p p 5 p p p
p, p. 5-24.

. 5-24

p .

------------------------p p, p p pp, p
, p:
1. 5.
2. p p p .
3. pp a-b-c, p.
H p :
* p.
* p -.
* p .
* p.
p ,
. , pp, p
pp a-b-c 5. H pp - p,

p? p p ,
pp p p p p p.

p p p 3,
1
1.618, 3,
p. 5-25.

. 5-25
3.

1.618

p 1

------------------------91

. 5-26 1.618 p
3 p 5.

p 1 p

p p p 5, p
1 p 3 1.618,
5, p. 5-26.

p
p p 5, p ,
p pp a-b. p , p
, p a b (p
), p. 5-27.

. 5-27
p.

------------------------92

. 5-28
.

p -
p

, , ,
, pp a-b-c, p , p,
p. p - p ( p
) p , p b c,
p. 5-28.

, ,
p , p. 5-29.

. 5-29
p .

------------------------93
H H H

p
p p 3 5 ,

p p
. Hpp, p, p p
3 5 10 (p
70.00 80.00). p p (puts) p (calls)
p p:
* p p p
p (outright) p p .
* "? ,
p ?" (strike price in the money or at the money).
* p p p p .
* p p .

H
p p. p
- p p .

p 3 5.
p p 5
. p p 5
p , p
p .
p p.
Hp
p, p "p" (filtered out) p p
, p p.

p
p, : " p ,
p p " (Elliott, p. 171).
p, p p p
p, , : "H
, p p p,
p p, , p
[p] p, p" (p. 165).
------------------------94

p p p p. H
p, . ,
p ,
p p.
H , p,
p p p "p" p
p
p p p (opening gaps)
(limit moves). p p (stop
orders), (volatility) p.
p p 1.618.
p p p p,
p p p. p
p /. pp pp ,
pp p.

------------------------95

6
HHH H H

p , p
, p, p p
p p. H ,
p .
HH HH H HH
p ,
p . p
p p
p p, , / p.
p pp
p :
* p,
*
* pp.
------------------------96
p p
p p p,
: "H p p (range) , ,
. Hp,
- p ,
p p " (p. 139). H p. 6-1
, (Elliott, p. 147).

. 6-1 p p
Industrial p p 1939.).
------------------------97
p

(p

Dow Jones

Hp , , ,
p , p p
. p
: " p, p pp,
p p , p, , 5000
" (p. 42).
pp,
p , - , ,
1.618.
p pp p , p
p . H p p ,

p
p p.
. p
p, p
.

p pp p .
1.618 (62%) pp p , p
p p. pp .
1. pp
p.
2. pp
p.

62%

62%

pp

pp p. p. 6-2.

. 6-2 (a) p 62% pp


p.

p
p

p;

(b)

------------------------98
p p 62% pp p,
4. pp, pp, 10
p p (60.00 - 70.00), p
p.
p p: 62% pp p
pp p, p
.

pp: p p
p. H p p p (p. 6-3)
A B pp
62%. 4 p pp p,
p , pp p ,
73.65.
p p p "pp
p": ,
p p , p p.
pp B C 62%. p
pp p , ,
p, 66.20.

. 6-3
p p p 1989.
1992. p pp 62%.
pp 62%.
------------------------99
p. H p. 6-4 p p p.
62% pp C D p
p p. p p
p ( 4), p a b,
p c. p p
:
1. p p p 100 .

2. p p p ,
p p,
3. p p pp
(100 ).
H p (p. 6-4)
p p 62% pp.

. 6-4 p p p p 1992.
p p p p.

pp pp
4 p . p
------------------------100
, p p p,
p p.
p p p
p, p , p
p 140.50. p pp
, p p.
, p p
p . p ,

pp, , ,
p?
" p p ,
pp" (Elliott, p. 55). , p
, p
p , p . ?
p, p p, ,
p p , , p.
pp p p p : "
p ,
pp" (p. 55). p p p p
pp: p pp A B p
p, p , p pp.
Hp p
. p , p. p
p, p p, p
p.
HH H

pp p, ,
p. p pp
p p.
p ,
p p. (p
), p p p p
.
p p p
pp, - ???
------------------------101

. 6-5 p p 1989.
p pp.

1992.

H p p p :
1. 50.25 69.12,
2. 69.12 54.01
3. 54.01 65.75.
pp
4 pp p - p
. H p p pp 62%
p, A, B C. A B p p
, p C p . pp
pp p,
:
* p p (p p
p p ,
p p).

------------------------102

p p, p 4, p,
D E p p.
D p p, p
p p.
E p , p
p p.
H
H p p :
* p ,
p, p.
* ,
pp, - p "".

* p p p pp
p p .
p p.
* p p p p:
- p p -.
- p.
- p p p-,
p p.

p p
p, 3.
, p pp p
p p.
------------------------103

7
HH H

p p p /, p p
1983. , p p, p

p . p p, ,
p
p p.
"p
pp" .
,
p p p
p.
p p p
p. :
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144,...,
p : " p p
p p p
p p
p p p p - , , . p
, p p
p p
p" (, p. 180).

p p: p p ,
p , p p ,
, , . Hpp, p p 4 ,
p p 5 ; 9 ,
p p p 13 .
------------------------104
p p p, p,
. p
1.618, , p
p . p .
p , p
(pp, 3, 5, 8,...), p
1.618 p 0.618. , 1.618
, p
.
H HH
p - , p p
. p , p
, p p,
p p.
p p p p p
, p p p p
p. (. p A.) H p. 1-4 p AB L p
C. p AB BC p, , a b.
C , L:a = a:b, C - p AB.
L:a = a:b .
p ,
C p AB p,
p 1.618 0.618.
H p .
p pp, p p
1.618, p, , p
p. 7-1.

. 7-1 p
B 1.618.

p p A

------------------------105
p A B p. 7-1 p A B
( p p), p
1.618, p C, p
p
B + 1.618*(B - A).
C p (). , p
p p p.
p - p p,
p; , p
p , . , p
, p p
p.
p p p , ,
p .
, . p p p,
, . p. 7-2.

. 7-2 (a) p p; (b)


p p.
------------------------106
p p p
p, ,
p.
H H HH H
p p p
p. p:
* p,
* p ()
* p , - p .
, p p
pp, p p
p p. - p p,

, .


p p
p p . p
p p, pp :
* , p
* p, p.
p p:
p?"

" p?"

"

?
p -
p. p pp
, p. p p p
p - , p. p p
.
H , , p p
p pp p. p
, p "p p
p" (whipsaw losses) p.
, p
p , p, .
------------------------107
p p p, p
p p p. H p p
"p p" (whipsawing). pp p
p p p . "p"
1983. p p " ".
pp , ,
. ,
p.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------p
p p
p
p -
( )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------p p
p

p


S&P 500

100
400
100
400
100
400
200
800
200
1 16/32
3
400
100
40

100
200
100
200
100
200
200
400
400
1.50
2.00
400
200
30

20
15
80
500
200

25
15
200
300
200

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- p
, p p p,
p p
pp p .
------------------------108
1.
. Hpp,
p 100 ,
100 p
(. p. 7-3).

. 7-3 p
.

2.

p.
p p ,
p , p p
( p), p. 7-4.

. 7-4 p
, .

p p

3. H p p p
p p , p p
(p p), p. 7-5. H
p ,
, p , , p
p p.
------------------------109

. 7-5 p p p p ,
p p.

. 7-6 p
p

p
p p
p.
4. p p,
p. 7-6.
p , ,
p " p ". p pp
, . H - p
p p p . ,
p p, p "",
, p.
p pp,
p p (p. 7-7). p
------------------------110

. 7-7 p p p 1992.
p , 1 - 5

1 - 6. (:
TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)
, p pp
p, , , p.

: p p p
p p p,
, p 1992.
p p , ""
"" p p pp, p
.
p p p
p p 15 . ,
, p "". p ,
p p p p p
p. , p p,
p p (equity swings)
. p , p
, p , p 15 .
p , p p 15
p , p.
p p 15 , p
-------------------------

111

. 7-8
p

p 1
p
p 21 p.

p .
p. 7-8. , pp
p .
p , p p
p. p p 100 ,
p p, p p N1, p N1
p N2.
p N1 p N2 p 21 . p p
p p p,
p N1 p N2.
P1 P2 p. 7-9. p H1 - P1 ,
p .

H (High) = p
L (Low) = p
P (Peak) =
TGD (Time Goal Day) = ( p )
. 7-9

p .

------------------------112
p p p,
. p
6, p 6, p. 7-10.
pp p p p.

. 7-10 p p p 1992.
6 6. (: TradeStation, Omega
Research, Inc.)
: p p
p p pp -
p . p .
p .
p , , ,
p. 7-11. p , p p,
2, 4 7, p, , 3 5.
pp , , p
p p , p p:
p p p p p
, p p .
p, p.
p
p p .
p p p p p p,
------------------------113

. 7-11

p p.

p, pp, 100
p, p p p p
.
p pp
p pp, ,
. p p
, , , . H
p ,
. 15 ,
p p. p p
p . p p - ,
. p pp
. pp p pp,
p .
H HH
pp p p p, p
. , . p
p pp, p p ,
p p "pp". , pp
p p p pp p.
p p .
, p , .
1.618 p p p p
p.
------------------------114
p p ,
p p ,
. , . p p -

p . H - :
* p, p p
* , p p .

p. 7-12.

p,

High = p
TGD High = p
TGD Low = p
. 7-12 (a) p, p
; (b) p, p
.

------------------------115

High = p
Low = p
TGD High = p
TGD Low = p
. 7-13 (a) p, p
; (b) p, p
.
p,
p, p p.

p. 7-13.

p
,

p p, p
/ p /. , , p
/ p /, , p
. H . p,
. H p -
p p, p p p
pp. , p , p
------------------------116
p.
,

pp pp,
p , , p
p; p . p
p p p .
. 7-14 , /
p /.

High = p
Low = p
TGD High = p
. 7-14 p p / p
p .

p p p p p,
p p p ,
p. , p
p
. p p. 7-15.

H p. 7-15 p p H1 H2 p H3.
p L1 L2 p L3. p
, H3, , p .
, p, p
L3, , H3. p
H3, p - p
p . ,
p L3, p, p
H3, p p . ,
p,
p.
------------------------117

H (High) = p
L (Low) = p
TGD High = p
TGD Low = p
. 7-15 p / p /
p .

p ,
/

/ p

p . H p
p p p ,
1.618, . p p p p

p: " p ,
p p?" , : "H
p ?"
p .
p p p:
* p , p p.
* p .
* p p .
* .
p p . p
.
,


p

p (. p. 7-16).
------------------------118

. 7-16

(a) p p ; (b) p .

p .
"p" . ,
. p
(. p. 7-17) p ,
p (p
) p.

. 7-17

p .

p .
p ,
p. p , pp
(. p. 7-18).
------------------------119

. 7-18

p .

pp p. p pp p
. pp p p p p:
p, . H p p
(p. 7-19) , p p p
.

. 7-19
Inc.)

(: TradeStation, Omega Research,

------------------------120
p ,
p p p p.
p , p ,
p - . 1.618.
p p:
* p N1 p N2,
1.618, = A
* p N2 p N3,
1.618, = B
* p N3 p N4,
1.618, = C
p p:
* p N1 p N2,
1.618, = G
* p N2 p N3,
1.618, = H
* p N3 p N4,
1.618, = I

H p. 7-20 , p .

. 7-20 p.
(: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)
------------------------121
, p
p p
p. Hpp, p p 10
(1000 ),
p
(/, /, /
/ p). p. 7-21 p
p.

. 7-21 p p 1989. 1992.


p, p p .
(: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)

, , p
p p . , p,
, p , , p
, , p.
p
. p ,
------------------------122
pp, p .
H p p 15 , p p
p ,
p
pp p

.
p / / p.
H p , p p
, . p p
p / / p. Hpp,
10
(50.00 - 60.00)
p p
pp, .

HH
p

* p ,
p ,

*
* H, p p p,
p p.

p. 7-22.
p pp.

Low = p
TGD High = p
. 7-22

p .

------------------------123
p
p p p
. p p
p. p p
p ( p. 7-23):
* , p, p ,
* , ,

* p, p p 4 p.

Low = p
TGD =
. 7-23

p .

p p :
* , , p ,
* , ,
* , p p 4 p.
p -
- p p.
p p - p
p (. 3, p. 3-14). H p p p p
p . H p p p p
p (. p. 7-24).
------------------------124

. 7-24

p -.

p p
, p ,
p p p , p p
p, p p .
p. 7-25.

Low = p
TGD =
. 7-25

p p .

p , p ,
p p p , p p
, p p .
H
p : " ,
. ( )
??????????????????????????????????????????? (p. 129).

------------------------125
, p p , p
. , p ,
. p p ,
. p p ,
, .
pp p .
H p p
1.618. p p, -, ,
p p. p ,
.
p p p
, p p p
p.
p pp, p p
1.618. , p p ,
p p , .
p p. ,
p p
p. p , p , pp
p .

------------------------126 //
------------------------127

8
HH H H

p p, ,
p, p p.
"p . , , . p p
. H p p,
p p "
(Elliott, p. 84).
p, , ,

p p p
p. H, p
1.618, p p . p
.
p p. p
p , p .
HH H H
1. pp
.
, pp, p p 10 (60.00 - 70.00) (.
------------------------128

. 8-1

pp 62%.

p. 8-1), pp 62% p
A B. p 4.
2.
p p .
p, p, 1
1.618, p. 8-2 (p ),
pp, a 1.618,
p. 8-3.

. 8-2

p, p p 1.618.

------------------------129

. 8-3 pp
a pp.

1.618

3. p
p p p
1.618. 7. pp ,
, p. 8-4.
p , p

1.618,
p .

Low = p
TGD =
. 8-4
1.618.

------------------------130
: H H
p p pp
p. pp
p, p. 8-5, A, B, C, D E. H p
p, pp
p p p pp.

Buy (Signal) =
Sell = p
Price Band =

H H

HH = 0.618

. 8-5 p p 1989. 1992.


p , p p
62% pp p 1.618.
(: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)

p, p pp
p , p
pp p.

p pp,

C. A B
pp, p 62%. p, p 1.618
p N1 N2. p 62%
------------------------131

pp pp p p.
p p "
N1" .
p D. 62% pp
B C, p .
p p " p N2".
E. 62% pp
C D. N3
p E.
p, p
p p (p. 8-5) p
, p,
p . pp
p .

p
p
p
p

p N4. p N3
N4 p p p.
N1 p N2, 1.618, p
N4. p N1 p p p
p.

p N6. p N5 p N6
pp . p (
p), p p N4
p N5 1.618 p p N6.
p N8. p
p N7 p N8.
p. p p N6
p N7 1.618 p p N8.
p N3 p p p p
p.
, p. 8-6,
" p N1". p
p p.
------------------------132

Buy (Signal) =
Sell = p
TGD =
H H

HH = 0.618

. 8-6 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p
p . (: TradeStation, Omega Research, Inc.)
H
p p. 8-5, ,
p. 8-6, p, :
* p. , p,
, pp.
* p p
p pp. p ,
p p p.
, p, p
p, p p.
* p , 62% pp,
p p p. Hp
, p p,
p p.

------------------------133

p p p
. p,

p , p. p p
p p, p pp 1.
p p pp ,
p, p p, p " p"
(Spira Mirabilis), p p .
p pp, p. p
p .
H p. 9-1 , p
pp 1.618, p p
.

. 9-1.

p p p p .

------------------------134
- ,
p p, pp,
p p , p p
p p. p p
p.
, p p p p

, p p. p p p
1987. - pp. p p
, p p p
(. p. 9-2).
p B A, p p S&P
C. H , A B p
p p p
p.

p , p, p p. H,
p p , p p,

. 9-2 p S&P p 1986. p 1988.


C p p p B
A. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------135
p p p (. . p p
); p p pp
. H , p p p p
p p p p
p. "p ", p p ,
p p p.

p p
p p , p p p
p p. p ,
p p, p p .
, p p , p p
p. H pp p p.
p p (. p. 9-3) - pp
p, p p.
p p p A, B, p
p p p C D,
p E F.

. 9-3 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p p p A
B. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------136
pp p p , p
p p, p p p.
p p p p,
p ( ).
p p. p p
p p, p p p p
p, p p pp .

p p
p p - p p ( ),
, pp p p p
p. p pp ,
p : " p p
p p p p, p p p,
p - , p, p
p p" ("p p p"/
Practical Applications of Dynamical Symmetry, Jay Hambidge, New York: Dover
Publications, 1970, pp. 28, 29). pp p. 9-4.
p p. p
p, p ,

. 9-4

p p pp .

------------------------137

. 9-5 p p 1989. 1992. p,


p p p p p,
p. 9-3, p p. (: Robert Fischer
Research, Chicago.)
pp 2 4
(" p"/ The Wave Principle, Elliott,
p. 51). p 2.
H p. 9-5 , p p p p
p. p pp p p p
p p p p p p. H p. 9-3
p p C D.
p A B, p p
p p. . 9-5 p G H.
, p p p
p p p , p,
? ! p p p
, p pp. ,
p p, p p, p,
p p p, :
* p , p (p. 9-6a)
* p , p (p. 9-6b).
------------------------138

. 9-6 (a) p p A, B,
p - p C; (b) p p A,
B, p - p C.

p p p .
p p p p, ,
, p p p p p
p.
H
pp
p pp

p p pp p.
p p. p p
1.618. p p p :
ctg a = 2/ * ln.
p p p :
" pp"/ The Divine Proportion, by H. E. Huntley, p. 172
.
, p B
p p.
p , p
p p pp
BASIC
p p p .

pp. p p .
p p p p p .
p p p pp 1.618.
H p (p. 9-7):
------------------------139

. 9-7 p 1989. 1989.


p 1.618, p p
p. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago)
* p p A,
* H B,
* p p p, C, p pp 0.618
p p p A B
* p p p, E, p 1.618 p
p p A B 0.618 p p
p B C.
p p p pp p .
p p?
p p , p p
p (p. 9-8a), p (p. 9-8b),
p .
,
p p .
, p p p
p. p
p p p, p p p.

------------------------140

. 9-8 (a) p p p, p A,
B; (b) p p p p,
p A, B.

p pp p,
p .
p
p p
. p p p.
* , ,
,
pp
p .
*

,
p , ,
p.

9-1 pp p p ,
p pp.
p
p

pp:
1. p p
p , ,
9-1 ( p p).
------------------------141
9-1

----------------------------------------------
-------------------p
( )
----------------------------------------------S&P 500
4.00
8.00

2.00
4.00
p
2.00
3.00

10.00
20.00
p
2.00
4.00
p p
2.00
4.00
H p
2.00
4.00

2.00
4.00
p
3.00
6.00
-----------------------------------------------

2. p p ( ) p
p p p , p p
p.
3. p
pp ( p p).
H p. 9-9
p.

. 9-9

p p

38%

p p.

------------------------142
p p. p p p - p
. H , p p p p
p.
p p, p p , p
p. p p, ,

pp a-b-c, -, p p
p p. H p. 9-10
p p, p p p
p.

. 9-10 (a) p p . A -
p;
(b) p p . C p;
(c) p p .
A - p;
(d) p p
. C - p.
p p p p,
p p - A, B C, p p,
p p, ,
p - . p
p , p
p, , "pp".
H p p p. p p
p - A, B C,
, :
------------------------143
* 4 p p p
* 4 p p p p.
p. 9-11. p
p, p p
p B. p p,

. 9-11
p A-B-C
(a) p p
(b) p p
(c) p p
(d) p p
(e) p p
(f) p p
(g) p p

p p p p
A-B-C.
p, p A, B;
p p, p A, B;
p, p B, A;
p p, p B, A;
p, p B, C;
p p, p B, C;
p, p C, B;

(h) p p p p, p C, B.
------------------------144
* p p B,
* H A C,
* p p p p .
p pp p :
1. H p p p p
B,
A. p p p.
H p. 9-12 , p p ,
p p D.

. 9-12 (a) p p p p B
A; (b) p p 1989.
1992. p p p, p B,
A, D. (: Robert Fischer Research,
Chicago.)
2. H p p p B,
A. p p p p. H p. 9-13
, p , p p D.
------------------------145

. 9-13 (a) p p p p, p B,
A; (b) p p 1992.
p p p p, p B, A,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
3. H p p p p p B,
C. p p p. H p. 9-14
, p , p p D.

. 9-14 (a) p p p, p B,
C; (b) p p p p 1991. 1992.
p p p, p B, C,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------146
4. H p p p p p
B, C. p p p p. H
p. 9-15 , p , p p
D.

. 9-15 (a) p p p p, p B,
C; (b) p p p 1989.
1992. p p p p, p B,
, D. (: Robert Fischer Research,
Chicago.)

, p p p
p p, p
p, p p p
.
H p p p. p p, p
A, B C, p p,
p, "pp" . , p
p p p p p - p p

p. p p. 9-16a-h. p p,
p p ,
p p p
B. p pp:
------------------------147

. 9-16 p p: p p
p p, p p .

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)

p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p

p
p
p
p
p
p
p
p

p, p A, B;
p p, p A,
p, p B, A;
p p, p B,
p, p B, C;
p p, p B,
p, p C, B;
p p, p C,

B;
A;
C;
B.

------------------------148
* p p B,
* H A C
* p p p p.
p pp p pp:
1. H p p p B,
A. p p p. H p. 9-17
, p , p p D.

. 9-17 (a) p p p, p B,
A; (b) p p 1992. p
p p, p B, A,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
2. H p p p p
B, A. p p p p. H
p. 9-18 , p , p p

D.
------------------------149

. 9-18 (a) p p p p, p B,
A; (b) p p . p p
p p, p B, A,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
3. H p p p
B, C. p p p.
p. 9-19, p p , p
p D.

. 9-19 (a) p p p, p B,
; (b) p 1989.
1992. p p p, p B,
C, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------150
4. H p p p p B,
C. p p p p. H p. 9-20
, p , p p D.

. 9-20 (a) p p p p p
C; (b) p p
1992. p p p p, p
C, D. (: Robert Fischer
Chicago.)

B
1989.
B,
Research,

p , p
p p. p p,
pp,
p
4.

p p p .
p p p p, p
p p p V-p pp. ,
p p
pp.
p p p p , pp,
3 4.
p p
p ,
p p p. p ,
p. 9-21 9-22 p, p, , 3
4.
H p p p (p. 9-21) p p
A. H B 3. Hp
-----------------------151

. 9-21 p p p p 1991. 1992.


p p p, p A,
B, C. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
p , p p C.
A B.
H p p (p. 9-22) p p
A. H B 4. p
p p p. p , p
p C.

. 9-22 p p 1989. 1992. p


p p p, p A, B,
C. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------152

p,
p:
1.
?

p p,

p,

2. p p p p p
p 2 ( p)?
3. p p
" 3")?

( 5,

p p,
"" p p. p p p
p. p ,
, p p pp.
p p p.
1 p
p

p p

p 1. 1 p p p
. ,
"" , , p
.
2 p

2
p p p,
6.
p .
,
. p p ,
1.618. p ,
p p. p
. p p p p p
??????????????????????

------------------------153
p p. 9-23 p
p p.
p :
* p p p,
* p 2 p
*
1.

p 5,

" 3",

1. H p p p p
, A, B C. p p B,
C. p p p p.
D p
p 2 p, pp, p p .
p p p p .

. 9-23 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p, p B,
C, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------154
2. H p p p
p p, A, B C. p p
B, A. p p p p. p
, D p p.
p p p,
p. 9-24.

. 9-24 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p, p B,
A, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
3. p p p
p, A, B C (. p. 9-25). p p
C, B. p p p p.
p , p 2 p D. p
p p p
p.

. 9-25 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p, p C,
B, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------155

p , pp p p
p p, p pp p p,
, p p p p p p
p. H p S&P 500 (p. 9-26) p p,
A, B C. p p A,
B. p p p. p ,
S&P p 2 p D.
p p p p.

. 9-26 p S&P p 1992. p p


p, p A, B,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
H

p (p. 9-27)
p
p p, A, B C. p p
A, B. p p p
p. p , p 2 p

. 9-27 p 1989. 1992. p


p p p, p A, B,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------156
D. p p p p
p.
H p (p. 9-28) A, B C
p p. p p B,
C. p p p. Hp p
p p 2 p D. p
p p p p.

. 9-28 p 1989.
1992. p p p, p B,
C, D. (: Robert Fischer Research,
Chicago.)
3 p
p p p p,
p, p . H ,
p. p p p
, 5. H p pp, ,
p p 3.
H p p (p. 9-29) A, B C
p p. p p A,
B. p p p p. p ,
p p p 3 D. p
, p p a-b-c p E.
------------------------157

. 9-29 p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p, p A,
B, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
H p S&P 500 (p. 9-30) A, B C p p
p.
p p B, A.
p p p p.
p ,
p 3 D. p p p
p p a-b-c E.

. 9-30 p S&P p 1991. p 1992. p p


p p, p B, A,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------158
4 p
p
4

p
p p

p p, p p . H p
, p p. ,
p p 1987. p p
p p. p . p
p 4 p
. p . p -
100 . p p
p- 5. H p
pp, pp p p p 4
p.
H p S&P 500 p p A, B C
(p. 9-31). p p B, C.
p p p p. p p p
4 p D. D,
p p - 400 .

. 9-31 p S&P 500 p 1986. p 1988. p


p p p, p B, C,
D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
H p p p (p. 9-32) p
A, B C. p p B,
A. p p p p. p
p p 4 D.

D p - 100 .
------------------------159

. 9-32 p p p p 1991. 1992.


p p p p, p B,
A, D. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
p
H p p, p p
p p . p
p,
p. 9-33 p p p
p p p p
p p p p
p p .
p p p E,
p. 9-33a, b, c d.

. 9-33a p p p 1989. 1992.


p p p p, p B,
C, E. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------160

. 9-33b

p p p

1989. 1992.

p p p, p A,
B, E. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)

. 9-33c p p p p 1991. 1992.


p p p p, p C,
B, E. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
------------------------161

. 9-33d p p p p 1991. 1992.


p p p, p C,
D, E. (: Robert Fischer Research, Chicago.)
H
p p -
p pp. p, p
p p, p .

p pp
p
p
p, p p p
p. p p p p p p.
p , p, p p
p.
p p p.
p p.
p
pp
p pp p.
p - ; ,
p p ,
. p , p
p pp
p. p , p
p.
p p p p
: p. .
------------------------162 //
-------------------------

163
H A
H

p p p, p
p 1983.

p,
p p . p , .
p - pp
p. p, ""
p p (p. A-1). p
p , p,
. p p
0.618 1.618 p p
, p ( p
p). p :
* pp,
*
* p .
------------------------164
p pp p , p
p p:
Robert Fischer, 555 W. Madison St., Tower #1, Suite 1612, Chicago, IL 60661.

. A-1

p .

------------------------165
H B
HH H

p
p
p p
p p. H p, p
p, p:
p p:

p:

p r1 r2 p :

r1 r2 p

p p

------------------------166
p

p pp
p
p, p p p p p.

pp p p p
'
'
'
' CON, p p PHI()=
' PI()=
' p RO p (P1X, P1Y)
' (P2X, P2Y) p

' A0, p RO p p

'A - , p p
' pp SPINC (=.05, pp), p RMAX
'( p p p)
' p p (TP1X, TP1Y)
'(TP2X, TP2Y), p p
'DIR = -1 +1 ,
'p p p p p
' p p

p, p pp ,
p p:
Robert Fischer 555 W. Madison St., Tower #1, Ste. 1612, Chicago, IL 60661.
------------------------167 - 169

PH
, p

103-125

pp
p :
p
p
pp

2-6

pp
p
,
p p
p
p
p ()
p
/:
p

57, 62, 86, 130-132, 149, 157


66-67
62-63
49
48
54-55
30-32, 33
45-46
139, 142-151
103-125
122-125
104-106
127-132
65
25, 55, 59, 122-123

6-10

pp
-
( Dow Jones 30 Industrials)

104-106
117-121
113-117

45
2, 4, 163-164
104
2

p
( p)

49-50

(p)
p
p
, pp
p (p)
pp:

p
p
pp

149, 156
26-29
2
55-56
66-67
45-71, 95-102
50-62
53
68-70
54-67

p p

8-10, 133-161

H p (p)

69, 101, 121

65-102, 127-132

51, 53, 54, 96

p pp
p
p pp

p p

100-102
127-129
95-100
40-42, 70, 93
2

p p
p:

p (p)
p,
p p
p
p (p)
pp (p)
:

p
p
p
p
p

47

30
25-26
29-33
30
26-29
30-32, 33
25-44, 86-92
87-92

p
p
p
()

5-6
17-18, 73-92
73
74
73
93
86-92
76-86

p (pp)
(p)

144, 153, 154


77, 145, 148, 155


p, p

p
p p
p p
p
p
p p
- (p)

p (p)

18-19
8-10, 133-161, 165-166
140-141
139, 142-151
136-137
152-161
135-136
134
143
36-37, 57, 60-61, 82-83, 123-124
1-2
150, 151

p:
p

p-
p
p

pp
pp

106-113
57-58, 62-63
39-40, 85-86
45
48-49
58-64
58-59
63-64

3-4
4-5
45
38, 61, 82-83, 124
46-47
2-3
25, 46
38-39, 55-56, 61, 84
54-55

p
p p
p -
p
p (pp)
p

59-60
61
60-61
76-86
62-63
58-67

2
121

p

,
p

127-132
73-92, . ""
95-102
25

p (p)

136-137

p p (p)

32, 98, 99, 145, 146, 151, 159, 160, 161

:
p
p
pp
pp
p p
p p
p
p
p p
p
, p

11
11-24
12
15
124-125
14
22-24
17-18
14-20
11-24
10

(p)

36, 82, 139