Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 40

broshura3.

qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 1

.. , ..

2010

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 2

Academic Educational Forum


on International Relations

Dmitry Baluev, Alexander Novoselov

THE GREY ZONES


OF WORLD POLITICS
Essays
on Current Politics
Issue 3

Moscow
2010

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 3

.. , ..

2010

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 4

66.0
.., .. . . .
.. . . 3. .: 
, 2010. 40 .
ISBN 9785901981269


... .. , ... .. ,
... .. , ... ..

..


, 

.
() ,
. , ,
,
.


.

, ,
.

ISBN 9785901981269
.., .., 2010
, 2010
, , 2010
.., , 1997

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 5

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.6. ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 6


, 

:
1)
?
2) ,
?
3) 
?

, 
,
. , ,

XX ,
11 2001 .

, 

, 
. 
XXI 

,
XX .
, 

. 
, , 
, , 
, 
, 
. ,
, 

, , 
. ,
2003 

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 7


.
, 
, :
, 
;

;
, 
, ;
( )

(, ) 
.
, , 
,
,
,
. 

, 
.

. 
,

. , ,
, 
, ,

.

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 8

1.

.

.

.
(1),
( ).
, . 
, , , 
.
, 
. , 
, .
(2)
.
, 
.
(3) 

. 
, , 
.

, 
.
(4) (5)

.
, 
, 
. 
, 

(, 
) 
.

,


1.

(5)


(4)

(
)

20:22

(2)

22.04.2010

(3)


(1)

broshura3.qxd
Page 9

1.

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 10

.
, , . 
(, , 
),
, 
.

. 
, , 
(, 
, ).
, 
.

. ,
,
:

, 
;
:
, 
,

, ;

(
, );


(, ).

. 
. 
, , , 
.

,
.
, ,
,
. 
.
10

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 11

2.

, 
, 
, 
, 
, 
, ,
.

2.1. , 
, 
. , 

,

. 
,

, , .
, , 

(Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia FARC), 

. 2007 
, ,
, 100
FARC. 
, , FARC
. , FARC 1558
2006 2067 2007. 20042008 
2009 
9000 . , FARC 
,
. , FARC ,
1.

,
1

Mark Joyce. FARCc future  The road ahead for Colombias rebels // Janes intelli
gence Review. March 01, 2008.
11

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 12

FARC 
. 
1990
. , FARC

(Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia), 
. 2003

, 23000 
2.
( ,
) .
50
,
. , 1999 ,

,

.
2007 . ,

FARC. 
, , 
. 
FARC 
.

, 

,
. 
, 
.
, 



, 
. , 
,
,
2

Ibidem.

12

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 13

2.

.

.
, , 

, 
.

.
,
, 
, 
.
. ,


. ,
,
, .

,
(), , 

,
.
2.2.

. 

. 

. ,
( 
) , . 
:
, 
;
,
;

, 
;
13

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 14

(, 
), 
, , 

.

, 


, , ,


.
() 2002
 ,


. ,
,
, 3.


. , 

( ) 
, 
.

, . 
,

.

. , 1990
,
2004 57 .
( ). 1316 
. 2008
3

.: James Maurice Scott. The White Poppy:


A History of Opium. New York: Funk and Wagnalls, 1969; Bertil Lintner, Michael Black.
Merchants of Madness. The Methamphetamine Explosion in the Golden Triangle. Chang
May: Silkworm Books, 2009. P. 3845.
14

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 15

2.

35
70 .
, (
).
.
. 2007 

,
 .
125 , (
), 
. 
. 
4.

. 
( 4 10 )
, (22 30 ),
5.

,  . 
(, )
.

,
.

, 

, 
, ( 
) . 

.
, 4 2008
. 
2003 
. 2003 
2,5 . 
4

Roman Kupchinsky. Stricken Kiev Ukraine emerges as drug trafficking hub //


Janes Intelligence Review. July 15, 2008.
5
Ibidem.
15

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 16


. 
, , , 
, . 
.

. 
2003 .
. 2003 
,
, 

, 
. 
.
1990 . 2000


1970 . 2002
700800 .

, .

.

.

2003 .
,

. 2003 , 
, .
Thai Rak Thai . 

,

, ,
, 
. :
,
, 
, , 
2000 .
16

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 17

2.


. 

, 
. 
. 
, 1998 33,6 . .
2000 , 2002
95,9 . . ,
, 
. 2003
71,5 . , 2004 31,1 . .
2006 13,8 . . 
1,9 . 
2003 475 . 2003 .
2008 

, . 
2007 2008 

, 

,
. 20082009 ,
2003 , 
,
,
, , , .


.
1990 
. 1993 
20


.
( 30%) (
60%) 1996 . 
,
1995 60 , 
, 

17

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 18

. 20022003
700 . . , 

, 
, 
. 1993 
,
2 . .

2003 
. , 
, . ,

, ,
. , 
, 
,
. , 
,
2004 , 

. 2000 
0,4 , 2002 8 .
2005 ( )
318 .
, 
.
2007 

2008 
.

. 
( 
), (ice).

. 
, 
, . 

 . 
 .

18

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 19

2.

, 

().

, 
.
.
 3,4 , 
, 250 
(7,5 ). 1 
1500
30003500 .
, , 

.

,

 
. ,
 , , 
 , .
2008 ,



.
, , 
. , 

, . , 
 
 ,
, .
2003 2008 
, , 2008

, 20002002 .
, ,
, , ,

. 

19

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 20

, 
. , 
, .
2007

(14,3 . 13,8 . 2006 .).
, , '

.
, 
.
,


, . 
, , 




.
, ,
,
, .
, ( 
)

, 
,
.
, ,
,
(
, , 
, ).


. 
.
2.3.
. 
.
20

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 21

2.

, 
. 2006 
54 100 000 . 
,
, . 
.


.
, , ,
.
:
, ,
.
, ,
.
 
(Comando Vermelho), 
1970 . 2000
. 
(Amigos dos Amigos)
(Terceiro Comando).

6. 
.
2001 
.
,

. 
, ,
, 
,
. , 
,
. 
, 
, 
,
.
6

Favela firepower  Outgunning the gangs in Rio // Janes Intelligence Review. January
01, 2008.
21

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 22


. 
:
2007
. ,
.

. 
, 

2007 33% (694 ). 
,
2% 
.
. , 52
 2007
,
.
,
,
. 
 16 .
2008 , ,
92 800 
7.
,

. 

, 27 2006 . 
, 
, . 19 ,
. 2006
, 
, 
, 150 . 

.


, . 2007
7

Ibidem.

22

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 23

2.


, 

,
. 
3,7 . .
, 
,
. ,
, ,
. ,

, , 
.
'
,
, 
, ( 
), 
.

,
, 
.
2.4.
. 
,
,
.
. 
, FARC 
, 
. , ,
, .

, 2005 2007 
4,3 . ,
.
, 30 35, 2006 
100 000 
103
10 000 103 .
23

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 24

103 
, 
5.5645 
FNFAL. 103 
7.6239, 
FARC,
. 

FARC, 2000
, 
8.
2008 
,
.
,
. 
, 
,
.


. .

1990 ,
.
1990
. 
.
,
 (),
.
,

Jemaah Islamiyah 
2003 , 
233 7 . 2005
, 
, 2007 200 .
9.
8

Andy WebbVidal, Anthony Davis. Lords of war Running the arms trafficking indus
try // Janes Intelligence Review. April 18, 2008.
9
Ibidem.
24

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 25

2.

.
, 1990 
, 
. 

.
1990 


. 

.
. 
LTTE
,
, 
. 
, 
. 

, .
20012004 , ,
, 
, . 
, 
,
. , 2006 
.

. LTTE 
. 2003
LTTE,
. 2007 LTTE 
.
, 
,
.
,
. 
. ,
, .
. 
, ,
25

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 26

, ,
. 
( 
), 
.

.
(
)

. , , 

. ,
, 

. 
,

, 
. 
, , 

.


, . 

, (
, ,
..).
2.5.
. 
2008 , 
 
. , ,
( , 
,  ) 

.
, 
.

26

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 27

2.

. 
( 2008 .) ( 2006 .). 

10.
.
, 
, . 
,
. ,

, . ,
, , 
. , 

, , 
.
, , , 

, 
.

, ,
.


.
2.6. , 

, ,
.


, 
. ,
, ,
,
, . 
World Vision 
Lifeguard.
10
Coup de grace The evolution of coup tactics// Janes Intelligence Review.
October 18, 2008.

27

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 28

, 
DSL. 
, , ,

, 
(, , , , 
).
, ,
, , ,

. DSL
,
2000 
.
DSL
( ). 1994 
. ,
, DSL 
, ,
.
DSL 
.
250 .
3,4 . , 12 
, . 
, DSL ,

.
,
.

, .
, ,
. , 

.
 
. 
, 
.

, 
, , 
28

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 29

2.

. ,

.
, ,
, .

( ). 
, (
), 
. 

.
, 
,

, 
.
,
, 
. 
,
. 
, , 
.
, , 
,
. , 
, 
.
, 
, ,
.
, 

.
, 2001 


.

(
),
.
29

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 30


.
, 
.
, 

 
, 
. 
, 
.

, .
, 
, .
. ' ,
,

,  , 
11.
, ,
, 
, 
. , , 
,
. . , 
, .

12.
, ,
, ,
, . 
 
. ,
, , 
.
.
11

Kevin OBrien. MilitaryAdvisory Groups and African Security: Privatized


Peacekeeping // International Peacekeeping. Autumn 1998. Vol. 5. No. 3. P. 78.
12
Steven Metz. Armed Conflict in the Twentyfirst Century: The Information Revolution
and Postmodern Warfare. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies
Institute. April 2000. P. 24.
30

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 31

2.

, 
.
, 
. 
.
. 
. 
, 

, .
, ,

. ,
, 

. ,

.

31

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 32

,

'
. 
,
.
,
, 
, 
. , , , 

, 

.
'
. 

.


, ,

, 
, , .


.
, 
. , 

. 
,
, 
. 

.

, ,

.

32

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 33

,
, 
. ,
, 
, ,
,
.

, '
'
. 
,
, 
( 
)
.
, 
. 
, , 
, 
.


()13. 
.

,
. 
11 2001 .

. 
, .

, , 
. 
, 
,
13
2009
.
2010 . 
,
.

33

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 34

( ). 
, , 
, .

,
, ,
. 
, , 
, , , ,
, , .

.



. 

( ), 
,
,
, , , 

, ,
.
'
'
,
.

.
, ,

, . 
, , 
,
.
'
. 
,
, 
, 
. '

34

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 35

,
. ( 
, ) 

.
(

) , 
(),
, 
,
.

35

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 36


,

.

,
.

Note on the Authors


Prof. Dr. Dmitry Baluev Professor, Department of Political
Science, Nizhniy Novgorod State University.
Dr. Alexander Novoselov Senior Researcher, Department of
Security Studies, Nizhniy Novgorod State University.

36

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 37

()
:
3

(Sciences Po)

.

.



( )
,
.

3

( )

:
,
. ()

, ,
 .

: http://www.mgimo.ru

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 38

International Trends
Journal of International Relations Theory and World Politics
Edited by Alexey D. Bogaturov,
Institute of International Security Studies,
Russian Academy of Sciences
International Trends is the first Russian academic journal dedicated to internation
al relations theory and methodology of worldpolitical studies.
The journal features firstclass articles on new fundamental trends in international
relations and world economy, the evolving theoretical agenda of security and conflict
studies, international organizations, the ethical dimension of foreign policy and inter
national law, ecology, geopolitics and international political economy. Having no direct
affiliation with any state or private university or thinktank, the journal seeks to facil
itate communication among all Russianreading scholars and educators and to foster
their concerted effort focused on developing theoretical approaches to international
relations and world politics.
Our authors come from universities and research centers based in the former
Soviet area as well as Western Europe and North America. Apart from Russianspeak
ing intellectuals, analysts and university faculty, the journal circulates among policy
makers and officials serving in Russian federal and regional government bodies,
including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian Federal Assembly.
International Trends welcomes manuscripts in Russian. Their length should not
exceed 40,000 characters. Submitted manuscripts should be original and should not
be considered simultaneously for publication in full or in part in any other journal or
collective monograph.
International Trends is published three times a year by the Academic Educational
Forum on International Relations with financial support from the John D. and Catherine
T. MacArthur Foundation

ISSN 17282756
EISSN 18112773
http://www.intertrends.ru

LIBERUM ARBITRIUM

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 39

3

. / . . .. .
.: , 2009. 588 .
.. , , . .: , 2008. 330 .
.. . 
. .: , 2008. 230 .
.. . . 
, . .: , 2008. 363 .
.. : . .: , 2007. 240 .
, . . 
. .: , 2007. 328 .
.., ..  . 
. 2. .: , 2006. 72 .
.., .. : . 1.
.:  , 2006. 28 .
.. . .: , 2005. 132 .
/ . . .. ,
.. , .. . .: , 2005. 204 .
.
2000 / . . .. , .. . .: , 2005.
345 .
.. . .
.: , 2005. 224 .
C . 19182003. 
/ . .. . I (520 .), II (247 .). .: , 2000.
III (720 .), IV (600 .). .: , 20032004.
: , , / . . .. ,
.. . ., 2004. 432 .
.. 19912004. 
. .: 
, 2004. 250 .
.., .., .. 
. .: , 2002. 382 .
.. . .: , 2002. 170 .
.
/ . .. , .. . .: , 2002. 572 .
.. . 
(19912002). .: , 2002. 445 .
.
/  .. . .: , 2001. 270 .
.. . 
. 19451995. .: , 1997. 352 .

broshura3.qxd

22.04.2010

20:22

Page 40

.., ..


3


..

..

15.03.2010. 60 x 90 1/16.
. School Book, Text Book.
. . . 2,5.
400 .

, 248640, , . , 5