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3

1.
1.1.


y = f (x),

( ); , (-).
.
: y = a + b x + .
: , ,
, , .
, , :
x = a + b1 x + b2 x 2 + b3 x 3 + ;
y
b
x = a + + .
y
x
, :
x = a xb ;
y

y x = a b x ;

y x = e a +b x .
:
x = a + bx ;
x = a + b / x ;
x = a + bx + cx2 ;
x = abx ;
x = axb .

1.2.
. n
x y {(xi,yi), i=1,2,...,n}
=f(x),
.
( ):
(
=f(x));

4
.

1.2.1.
, , .
:
( );
, . . ;
, . . D A ,
( ).
1.2.2.
, , ().
,
x
x , . .
2

y x min .

b
:
na + b x = y,
(1.1)

a x + b x 2 = yx.
,
:
cov( x, y ) y x y x
a = y b x, b =
=
.
(1.2)
2
2
x2
x x
, (x, y) (x, y),
(1.1) x, y.
b x : , y x 1 .
: y x = a 0 + a1 / x .
: x = 1/x; y = y.

(1.1) (1.2)
1

na
+
b
= y,

a 1 + b 1 = y 1 .

x
x
x2
y
1
n y
1
1
1
x
x
a 0 = y a1 ,
a1 =
.
2
n
n
x
1 1
n 2
x
x
a +a x
: y x = e 0 1 .
: x = x; y = lny.
a0 =

1
1
ln y a1 x,

n
n

a1 =

n x ln y x ln y

.
n x 2 ( x ) 2
: y x = K + a 0 a1 x ,
(0 < a1 < 1).
: x = x; y = lny .
n ( x ln y K ) x ln y K
1
1
ln a 0 = ln y K ln a1 x, a1 =
.
n
n
n x 2 ( x) 2
K
. a0
+, y > K .
a
: y x = a 0 x 1 , (a0>0).
: x = ln x; y = ln y.

ln a 0 =

1
1
ln y a1 ln x,

n
n

a1 =

n (ln x ln y ) ln x ln y
n (ln x) 2 ( ln x) 2

: y x = a 0 a1x .
: x = x; y = lny.
n x ln y x ln y
1
1
ln a 0 = ln y ln a1 x,
ln a1 =
.
n
n
n x 2 ( x ) 2
: y x = a 0 + a1 ln x .
: x = ln x; y = y.
n ln x y ln x y
1
1
a 0 = y a1 ln x,
a1 =
.
n
n
n (ln x) 2 ( ln x) 2

: y x = a 0 + a1 x 1 + a 2 x 2 .
3 a0, a1, a2,
n a 0 + a1 x + a 2 x 2 = y ,

2
3
a 0 x + a1 x + a 2 x = xy,

2
3
4
2
a 0 x + a1 x + a 2 x = x y.
1.3.

rxy (1 rxy 1)
rxy =

1
( xi x )( yi y )
n i

x y

cov(x, y )

x y

yx y x

x y

(1.3)

xy (0 xy 1)
2

( y y x )
xy = 1 2 = 1
2

y
y

(1.4)


rxy = b

x
.
y

, , r2xy ( ) R2 = 2xy ( ).
.

(, ) R2 .
, .

yy
1
A=
100 %.
n
y

,
A 1012 %.

1.4. , ,


F- .
F- .
F () F F-
.
F
,

( y y) 2
m
rxy2
n m 1
F =
=

,
(1.5)

2
m
1

r
2
xy
( y y)
n m 1
n ; m .
m = 1 .
r 2 xy R2.
F k1 = m, k2 = n m 1 ( m = 1) .

, . 0,05
0,01.
F < F, 0- . F > F, , .
rxy

t-
.
t- 0 , . . . t
rxy

rxy
b
a
tb =
; ta =
; tr =
.
mb
ma
mr
xy

S
( y y ) (n 2) =
(x x )
(x x )
2

mb =

ma =
m rxy =

( y y )

(n 2) n (x x )
2

= S

x n

n 2 x2

= S

x
n x

1 rxy2

.
n2
() t-
t t .
t k = n2 .
F- ( k1 = 1; m =1) t-

t r2 = t b2 = t r2 = F .

t < t, , . . a, b rxy
. t > t,
, b rxy .
R2 ( ) F- . F

R2
n m 1
F =

.
(1.6)
m
1 R2
F k1 = 1, k2 = n2
. F < F,
. (1.6) m
.

1.5.
( a, b, rxy )
, .
,
, .
, , .

a b :
a = t m a , b = t mb .
t t- k = n2 .
:
amax = a + a ;
amin = a a ;
a = a a;
bmax = b + b .
b = b b ;
b = b b ;
min

, . . , , , , .

Z- :
1 + rxy
1
Z = ln
.
(1.7)
1 rxy
2
z

1
z z' t
,
n

t , , = 1 /2 ( );
z = Z (rxy) Z- , rxy.
(r , r+) rxy
(z , z+) z
, Z-

1
.
rxy = Z 1 ( z ) = Z 1 z ' t
n 3

1.6.

p,

y x = a + b x () xp
p = a + b x p .
, . . pmin , pmax , -

10

p ( y p min < y < y p min ). p

(
), .
m y
m
yp

2
1 (xp x)
= 1 + +
,
n ( x x )2

=
,
n m 1
, . .


yp

yp

min

yp

max

= y p ;
min

yp

yp

= y p + ,
max

yp

= t m .
yp

yp

1.7.
, ,
x
= f ' ( x) .
(1.8)
y

1 % .

x
=b
y
x,
x
x
= f ' (x) = b .
y
y
,
1 % .
:
1. ?
2. ?

11
3. ?
4.
?
5. ?
6. , ?
7. rxy ?
8.
?
9. ?
10. ?
11. ?
12. ?
13.
?

1
. . 1 (. 1.1):
1. .
2. .
3. .
2
. . 1 (. 1.1):
1. , .
2. .
3. .
4. .
5. x = xmax
.
6. .

:
1. ;
2. ( );
3. .

12

1. 1
1, 2


. 1

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1, 2
2, 3
3, 4
4, 5
5, 6
6, 7
7, 8
8, 9
9, 10
1, 3
1, 4
1, 5
1, 6
1, 7
1, 8
1, 9
2, 4
2, 5
2, 6
2, 7
2, 8
2, 9
3, 6
3, 7
3, 8

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72

1, 2, 3, 4

( )
( ;
100 ; )

- - - - -
, , -

1
2
3
4
5

,
-
.

-

6
7
8
9
10

113

39

65

10

103

93

77

58

26

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37

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99

72

64

50

18

124

36

61

10

105

90

77

68

24

122

36

44

13

102

96

66

60

25

128

26

47

106

92

71

71

140

43

61

14

106

88

81

66

28

117

31

45

12

100

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58

58

14

113
122

40
48

47
58

15
13

3
2

100
113

78
95

66
73

51
66

28
34

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57

27

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87

81

62

22

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120

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8
8

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36

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60

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53

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74

38

29

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65

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52

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74

21

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26

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76

56

45

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65

60

20

114

44

60

14

109

90

74

67

28

114

40

63

12

104

91

78

49

29

126

54

55

11

116

87

76

66

29

109

41

55

106

93

74

70

23

120

43

57

20

109

91

73

60

26

115

40

52

16

116

94

75

67

29

134

28

64

108

87

72

73

22

130

33

52

10

109

89

77

58

18

120

52

61

19

119

90

76

55

22

123

32

53

111

97

69

74

26

128

31

60

11

105

85

76

78

19

144

27

60

120

109

74

86

22

125

36

52

114

101

81

75

21

124

47

57

17

119

105

82

66

36

121

36

47

109

94

70

69

15

123
128

40
62

50
56

15
24

6
14

113
121

98
100

73
76

75
68

27
35

118

38

51

12

124

87

65

62

27

116

37

51

109

96

77

67

25