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Experiments on Probability

Objective: - To appreciate that finding probability through experiment is different from finding probability by calculation. Students become sensitive towards the fact that if they increase the number of observations, probability found through experiment approaches the calculated probability.

(ii) I collected the following data by visiting say 10 classrooms in the school. (iii) I obtained the fraction of number of children having their birthday in the month of January, February, December from the data given in the table.

(v) I investigated that fraction actually obtained in step 3 tallies with the calculated probability obtained for each month. If total no. of children whose birthday falls in month of January is 38 and the total number of students is 500. The actual fraction of children born in January = 38/500 Probability for a child to have birthday in January = 31/365 (vi) The students increased the sample size, i.e. increased the number of observations and studied if the actual fraction approaches the calculated probability. I used a random sample for this purpose.

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(iv) I made a pie-diagram from the recorded data.

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Description :- (i) groups.

The teacher asked us to either work individually or at most in

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Calculation of probability by using formula (theoretical values) Probability for a child to have Birthday in January =

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 = 0.08

Probability for a child to have Birthday in February (leap year) = Probability for a child to have Birthday in March = Probability for a child to have Birthday in April = Probability for a child to have Birthday in May =

 = 0.079

 = 0.08

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Probability for a child to have Birthday in June = Probability for a child to have Birthday in July =

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 = 0.082

 = 0.084  = 0.082

 = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in August =

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 = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in September = Probability for a child to have Birthday in October =

 = 0.082

 = 0.084  = 0.082

Probability for a child to have Birthday in November = Probability for a child to have Birthday in December =

 = 0.084

Table 1 Number of students having Birthday in various months in 1 class

VI C

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2 1 9 3
Jan Feb Apr Jun Mar Jul May

Class

No. of students 61

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep 6

Oct 9

Nov 6

Dec 5

No. of Students

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Sep

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Dec Nov Oct Aug

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Calculation of probability based on these observations (only 1 class of 61 students)

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These are actual experimental values Probability in month of January Probability in month of February Probability in month of March Probability in month of April Probability in month of May Probability in month of June Probability in month of July

= = =

= =

= 0.19

 = 0.06

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= = = = = = = = =

= =

 = 0.16  = 0.05  = 0.03  = 0.16

= = = = = = = =

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 = 0.15

Probability in month of August

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Probability in month of September Probability in month of October

Probability in month of November Probability in month of December

 = 0.09

 = 0.15

 = 0.09

 = 0.05

 = 0.08

Class VI C VI D

No. of students 61 61

Jan 12 9

Feb 4 2

Mar 1 2

Apr 3 1

May 2 5

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Jun 1 2 Jul 9 6 Aug 3 8
Jan Feb Apr Mar May Jul Jun

Number of students having Birthday in various months in 2 classes Sep 6 7 Oct 9 3 Nov 6 10 Dec 5 6

No. of students

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Sep

BS
Nov Oct Aug

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Dec

Calculation of probability based on these observations (only 2 classes122 students)

These are actual experimental values Probability in month of January Probability in month of February Probability in month of March Probability in month of April Probability in month of May Probability in month of June Probability in month of July

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= =

= =

= 0.09

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= = = = = = = = = =

 = 0.03

= =

 = 0.01  = 0.02  = 0.02  = 0.01

= = = = = = = =

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 = 0.07

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Probability in month of August

Probability in month of September Probability in month of October

Probability in month of November Probability in month of December

 = 0.05

 = 0.07
 = 0.04

 = 0.05

 = 0.02

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No. of students VI C 61 VI D 61 59 VII B 56 VIIIA 57 VIIIC 61 VIIID 60 IX B IX D 58 XB 53 54 XD 580 Total

Class

Jan 12 9 3 4 3 8 6 12 9 8 74

Feb 4 2 4 6 5 2 2 6 7 1 39

Mar 1 2 2 4 7 10 5 7 6 4 48

Apr 3 1 3 5 1 3 1 2 4 6 29

May 2 5 4 1 4 8 4 3 1 3 34

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Jun 1 2 5 3 5 5 6 5 3 7 42 Jul 9 6 4 2 8 1 6 1 3 8 48 Aug 3 8 5 7 2 6 4 4 5 2 46

Number of students having Birthday in various months in 10 classes Sep 6 7 5 5 6 4 3 2 6 7 51 Oct 9 3 10 6 2 6 5 4 4 1 50 Nov 6 10 8 10 9 4 5 5 1 2 60 Dec 5 6 5 3 5 4 13 7 4 5 58

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Probability in month of January =

   

= 0.12  = 0.06  = 0.08

Probability in month of March = Probability in month of April Probability in month of May Probability in month of June Probability in month of July

 

= =

   

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=
 

 

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Probability in month of August =

 

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Probability in month of February =

 = 0.05

 = 0.06

 = 0.07  = 0.08

 = 0.07
=

Probability in month of September =

 

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Probability in month of October =

 

 = 0.08

 = 0.08

Probability in month of November = Probability in month of December =

 

= =

 = 0.10

 

 = 0.1

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Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total

No. of children 74 39 48 29 35 42 48 46 51 50 60 58 580

Angle 46 24.2 29.8 18 21.7 26.1 29.8 28.6 31.7 31 37.2 36 360

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Observation :-

experimental probability and that calculated with formula become almost equal.

I observed that as the no. of students increases the

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