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  • Forecast of Port Throughput Based On Spreadsheet

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    Forecast of Port Throughput Based on Spreadsheet

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    Forecast of Port Throughput Based On Spreadsheet

    Загружено:

    api-3814100

    Авторское право:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    Отметить как неприемлемый контент
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    FORECAST OF PORT THROUGHPUT BASED ON SPREADSHEET YANG Shenhua' SHI Chaojian! 1 Merchant Marine College Shanghai Maritime University Shanghai ,P. R. . china 200135 2 Navigation Institute, Jimei University Xiamen ,P. R. . china ,361021 (E-mail: yangshh@ 163. com ,cshi@ shmtu, edu. en) Abstract: Forecasting throughput properly is important for port operation and development. Spreadsheet Meth- od is an effective method of research and application in management science. For forecasting and testing the ‘throughput of Nantong port with Trend Forecast Technology, we use the model of least mean square fited by or- thogonal functions. Then we perform the modeling and calculation using Spreadsheet. The result indicates that the ‘model fits the historical data properly and is effective to forecast the throughput in the future. Keywords Spreadsheet; Throughput; Least square method ; Forecast 1 Introduction Port throughput is @ very important index in the research of port developing strategy. Forecasting throughput properly is critical for port layout, invest- ‘ment scale, development strategy, and the planning of coordinated transportation. It also has influence over the economic development of hinter land and even over ‘our competitive power in ghbal economy. For forecas- ting port throughput, we are used to using these meth- ‘ods such as increasing rate, regression analysis, expo- nential smoothing and coefficient of elasticity". In this article, Trend Forecasting Technology is employed for the throughput forecast. In section 2,8 mathemati- ccal model is established using least square fitting with ‘orthogonal function. We implement the model with his- torical data of Nantong port using the Spreadsheet ‘Method in section 3. Section 4 deals with the result a- nalysis and trend forecasting. A brief summary folows in the last section. 2 Mathematical Model For drawing trend curve by statistical method, east square method is a good choice. Given a data set (x,,y,)(i=1,2,...m) ,we find a function s* (x) in the given function group ® = span! Yo, 91,@2y-++ 5 eo) that is. SG) =aiq tala tetaia = Daa) n7. It's difficuk to solve the problem because the normal ‘equation is ill-conditionedfrequently". But if we use the function group | ¢,; »°""+,| » hich is orthogonal function group of point set |x,| (i =1,2,..-4m) ,the condition number of equation will be improved that is < af i#k (ee) = Loaders) = tr sojak then the normal equation of a, can be expressed as (e000) a] [oe (ee) a, |_| Ge) “ Coneddal Lie (k =0,1, 2,--n) Therefore, s"(x) = % Eee We use orthogonal polynomial group | p(x), Pi (2) +++ sPa(x)| swith first coefficient set to 1, to replace the function group |¢o(x),9,(t)...- 5 n(x) |. So, s(x) = ¥ Pe) (x) 6 (PusPed) The orthogonal polynomial group | pa(x), us »Pa(*)| can be expressed as the follow- pi(x) = 2-0, (& ~ a4 )PACt) ~Bpra(a)(h = 1p. 0-1) (n

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