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El GasoductoFriend or Foe???
By Hirohito Torres Daz PhD PE Daz, PhD,PE Renewable Energy Program UPR-ARECIBO UPR ARECIBO Colegio de Ingenieros y Agrimensores de PR Salvador Caro 31 de mayo de 2011
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Objectives
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Who is PREPA? Va Verde EcoElctrica Plant Modification requested to FERC Expected Savings Feasible ??
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Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (A Component Unit of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico) Audited Financial Statements Years Ended June 30 2010 and 2009 30, Ernst & Young LLP
14. Net Assets : As of June 30, 2010, the Authority is in a net deficit position. The Authority faces a number of business challenges that have been exacerbated by the Commonwealths economic recession, the volatility in oil prices, and the fact that the Authority has not increased rates to its customers at sufficient levels to offset the effects of its rising costs. Its principal challenges, some of which are interrelated, are: (i) addressing the decline in electric energy sales; (ii) addressing the volatility of oil costs; (iii) addressing high customer electric power rates; (iv) reducing government accounts receivables; and (v) improving its liquidity liquidity. The Authority is committed to take all necessary measures to ensure it achieves a healthy financial condition.
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15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
1960-61
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1962-63 1964-65 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2 2000-01 2 2002-03 2 2004-05 2 2006-07 2 2008-09 FISCAL YEARS
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$/M BTU MM
Natural Gas
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0 Jul-98 J l 98
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Apr-01 A 01
Jan-04 J 04
Oct-06 O t 06
Jul-09 J l 09
Apr-12 A 12
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Oil Price$$$/Barrel
ECOELECTRICA
ITEMS VALUE
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91 0
3.69E+12 507
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UNITS
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7,500
971 40.4 12
ITEMS STORAGECAPACITYLIQUEFIED NATURALGASINECOELECTRICA TANKTOTALGASPRODUCTION TANKTOTALENERGY PLANTMEGAWATTS EFFICIENCYOFTHERMOELECTRIC PLANT NGGASFLOW:BASEDONPOWER DEMANDANDPLANTEFFICIENCY
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160,000 3.69E+09 3.69E+12 1,035 7500 186 528 476 19.8 25
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558
A R
UNITS BTU/KWH
91 0 971 40.4 12
COSTASURUNITS5&6CONVERTEDTONGBUTOPERATINGAT63% LIMITEDBYECOELECTRICAGASIFICATIONRATE
PLANT AGUIRRE COSTASUR (5,6) ECOELECTRI CA AES PALOSECO SANJUAN TOTAL MW 1492 820 507 454 602 840 4,715 %OFLOADING MMKWH 48% 6208 63% 100% 100% 47% 47% 4525 4441 3977 2479 3458 25,089 OILREQUIREMENT (MMBTU) N/A 48,874,493 N/A N/A $/MMBTUFOROIL 17.24 17.24
AGUIRRE COSTASUR
1492 820
6208 4525
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TOTAL$MM TOTAL$MM TOTAL $ MM
A R
$(MM) N/A 843 843 N/A 184
184 184 0
$SAVING/KWH
%REDUCTION(23/KWH)
0.0194
8%
COSTASURUNITS5&6CONVERTEDTOTO NGOPERATINGAT100%
PLANT AGUIRRE COSTASUR(5,6) ECOELECTRICA AES PALOSECO SANJUAN TOTAL MW 1492 820 507 454 602 840 4,715 4 715 OILREQUIREMENT(MM OIL REQUIREMENT (MM BTU) %OFLOADING MMKWH 37% 4836 N/A 100% 100% 100% 37% 37% 7183 4441 3977 1925 2686 25,048 25 048 77,578,560 N/A N/A $/MMBTUFOROIL 17.24 17.24
AGUIRRE COSTASUR
1492 820
37% 100%
4836
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7183 MM SCF/DAY
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5.43
A R
$$$(MM) N/A 1,338 1,338 1 338 N/A 292
TOTAL$MM TOTAL $ MM
$/MMBTUFORNG N/A
TOTAL$MM292 TOTAL $ MM292 LOAN(MM) MORTGAGE $ $NETSAVING $SAVING/KWH %REDUCTION(23 /KWH) 127 ($9.35) 1,036 , 0.0310 13%
COSTASUR&AGUIRRECONVERTEDTOTO NGOPERATINGAT57%
PLANT AGUIRRE COSTASUR COSTA SUR ECOELECTRICA AES PALOSECO SANJUAN TOTAL MW %OFLOADING MMKWH OILREQUIREMENT(MM BTU) $/MMBTUFOROIL
AGUIRRE COSTASUR
1492 1090
57% 57%
7450
5443
MM SCF/DAY
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17.24 17.24 . 5.43 5.43
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$$$(MM)
1,317 1,013 ,0 3
TOTAL$MM $
2,330
TOTALMMSCF/DAY REQUIRED
%OFLOADING MMKWH 74% 74% 100% 100% 0% 0% 9672 7018 4441 3977 0 0 25,108
$/MMBTUFOROIL 17.24
AGUIRRE COSTASUR
1492 1090
74% 74%
9672 7018
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REQUIREDMMSCF/DAY
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343
NGREQUIREMENTS (MMBTU)
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17.24
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TOTAL$MM
A R
$$$(MM) 1,709 1,307 3,016
$/MMBTUFORNG
72,538,056 52,635,555
5.43 5.43
394 286
TOTALMMSCF/DAY
TOTAL$MM679
CONCLUSIONS
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PREPA PROMISED A REDUCTION IN ELECTRICITY FOR DEC 2010(OUT OF PHASE WITH CONSTRUCTION PLAN) ECOELECTRICA CURRENTLY DELIVERS UP TO 93 MM SCF/DAY OF NG FOR INTERNAL USE ECOELECTRICA WORKING IN AN EXPANSION PROJECT FOR THE INSTALLATION OF TWO GASIFIERS . HENCE, NG WILL BE INCREASE TO 186 MM SCF/DAY (END OF 2011??) WITH THE GASIFIERS IN PLACE, REDUCTION IN ELECTRICITY BY 8 % POSSIBLE IF OPERATING THE CONVERTED COSTA SUR 5 6 UNITS TO 5,6 NG AT 57 % LOADING THE TOTAL KWH GENERATED IN PR WAS SET TO A MAX OF 25,000 MM KWH/YEAR BY LOCAL DEMAND. TOTAL PR GENERATION SYSTEM IS ABOUT 50 % OVERSIZED NEED TO LOOK FOR CLIENTS (DOMINICAN OVERSIZED. REPUBLIC ? VIRGIN ISLANDS..???) REDUCTION IN ELECTRICITY COST OF NEAR 30 % POSSIBLEHOWEVER, THERMOELECTRIC PLANTS NOT IN NG MUST BE OPERATED AT A VERY SMALL LOADING SHUTDOWN ? LOADING.SHUTDOWN
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