premcapital.

ru

premcapital.ru
65.26
20

. -.
20 . - ,
1999. 236 ... 134 - . 221
ISBN 966-95440-0-9
, ,


, ,


, ,

,
.
" " -

65.26

ISBN 966-95440-0-9

, 1999

premcapital.ru
NAIMAN

NAIMAN

....................................................................................................................................................... 5
1. .......................................................................................................7
1.1
7

1.1.1
1.1.2

7
17

1.2
1.3
1.4 noumu
1.5
27
1.6
2. .................................................................................................................35
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4 .

20
22
24

2.5

65

2.6

73

2.7

86

2.8
2.9

90
90

2.10

107

2 . 4 . 1 ( )
2 . 4 . 2 ( )
2 . 4 . 3
2 . 4 . 4
2 . 4 . 5
2 . 4 . 6
2 . 4 . 7
2 . 4 . 8
2.5.1
2 . 5 . 2

32
35
36
36
39

40
41
42
43
44
60
61
64
65
67

2.6.1
2 . 6 . 2
2 . 6 . 3 MACD

2.7.1
2 . 7 . 2 " " (+/-DM)
2 . 7 . 3
2.9.1 ,
2 . 9 . 2
2 . 1 0 . 1
3

73
75
80
86
87
89
90
101
107

premcapital.ru
NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, .
,

,
,
.
- . ,
,

. ,
, ,
.
, , -
, . , .
"" ( ,
-,
''").
.
. ,
. ,
, , .
, , .
.
(, , ..)
.
.
.

, . .
, , .
, ( )
5

premcapital.ru

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. - ,
. ,
, - .
., .
, .
, ,
. ,
, . ,
,
.
.
. ,
,
. ,
.
, .

,
.
.
,
"" .
( - , - )
-
.
.
, , , , ,
, . -
. ,
,
.
, ,

, ,
"" .

premcapital.ru

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
1.

: , .
.
(
- ),
. .

.
, .
,
, .
4.

.
.
,
,
.
,
.
.
,
,
.
1.1. 1.1.1.

:
- , .
;
- ( ),
, .
() - ,
.
,
,
,
.
, , (),
, , , , .. " " .
7

premcapital.ru
NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
(forex), (deposits/
loans).
,
:
-
. FOREX (Foreign Exchange
Operations)',
- - ( 1 1
) ( deposits)
( - loans)
. - (Money Market
Operations).
,
( ) ( ). :
- - USD;
- - DEM;
- - JPY;
- - GBP;
- - CHF;
- - 1TL;
- - FRF;
- - BFR;
- - ESP;
- - AUD;

- - CAD.
, .
: , --, ;
- -; , .
(., ),
1989 932 . , 1993 . 1100
. .
5-7 . ,
480 . . 220 . , 170 . .
90 . , --
60 . . , ,
-- - ( 14-00 18-00 GMT - Greenwich Meridian
Time, ) ,
. -
,
, , .
,
, .
8

premcapital.ru
NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1.1

GMT

,
,
,

--,

-
-

-11
+9
-9
+8
+7
+3
+2
+1
0
-5
-8

-12
-10
-9
+8
+8
+4
+3
+2
+1
-4
-7

:
- ;
- ;
- ;
- , - ;
- ;
- ;
- .

. ,
,
(US Federal Reserv - FED), (Deutsche
Bundesbank - Buba), (Bank of England - Old Lady),
(Bank of Japan - BOJ).
() 1913.
, .
1987. (Alan Greenspan). 1996 70 .
20 2000 .
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee
) .
.
- ; FOMC . FOMC
4-6 .
, , ,
. FOMC
.
FOMC .
1992. 2000. (Hans
Tietmeyer).
. ,
.
(Otmar Issing) .
9

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
,
.
1993. (Eddie George).
1994 (Yasuo Matsushita).
Barclays Bank, Chase Manhattan Bank,
Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland .
.

3/4
1000 .
"" . .
(funds).
"Quantum", "" .
,
,
, -, , , -,
, ..
-.
,
. . ,
. -,
"Quantum". -
, -
, .
( 30- 60-
) .
(
)
-, .
-
. ,
- -
, "" .

.
.
Bierbaum, Courts, Harlow Buttler, Lasser Marshall,
Tradition, Tullet and Tokio .
" ".
1953 ,
.
( )
10

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
. 40 (
). , , 80 . ,
1.5763,
1.5803, 1.5723. 11:00
11:05 GMT ,
" ",
.
. " "
,
, '".
,
( 40 ).
, , :
- ( 1995. - Robert Rubin);
- ( 1989. - Theodor Waigel);
- ( 02/05/97.
- Gordon Braun);
- ( 1995.
- Jean Arthuis).

,
.
.
1821 1914 . ,
.
.
1914 .
.
.
1922 . .
.
1925. -
. ,
(, ). ,
" " .
1929 . .
36%.
, 1930 1932. 80%.

. " ".
1931 . ,
. ,
. .

11

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1931 . .
.
1933 . -
.
1933 . " ". , ,
, , .
, 20- .
30 1934 . , , 35 .
1935 . " "
.
1936 . " ".
25 1936. , , .

.
1944 . - ,
" ". 44 ,
- (35 ).
1945 . - .
1947 . ,
.
- 2.60,
4 .
15 1947 .
, .
1947 . ,
.
20 1947 . .
1948 . .
1 1948 .
.
1948 . .
1949 . .
18 1949 . 35%- .
2.80 .
1950 . ,
(
). .
1954 . .
.
1955 . .
1958 . 17.55 %, .
12

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

27 1958 .
- .
().
"-".
1959 . .
.
20 1960. 40 ,
.
1960 . " ". ,
. 1960. 1967. 35.35 .
1961 .
. .
1962. .
, ,
. 1962 1966 .
.
XX ,
.
1965 . .
1966 . "" - .
18 1967 . 14.3%.
, , .
,
.
2.80 2.40 .
15-17 1968 . " ".
.
1968 . , .
.
1969 . ().

.
.
''" .
8 1969 . 11.1%
.
28 1969 .
, .
27 1969 .
9.3%.
1970 . ,
.
3-5 1971 . .
9 1971 .
7.1 5.1 .
13

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

15 1971 . .
" " , .
. -
.
18 1971 . " "
,
. 2.25%
. 37-38
, .
7.66%.
7 1972 . " ".
, 1.125%
, 2.25%
4.5%, .
. ""
- .
1972 . .
1973 .
- .
12 1973 . 38 42.2
. (
12 7.5 ).
1973 .
.
1973 . " "
" " .
,
.
1973 . ( ) .

1974-75 . .
1974 . .
1975 . .
1976 .
.

.

1976 . "" .
"" ( , ,
) , "" ( ,
) .
10 1977 .
.
1978 . .
14

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1 1978 . , ,
.
.

1979 . .
(ECU European Currency Unit).
1979 . , .
. .

,
.
1982 . ,
" " .
, .
1983 . .
1984 . , .
4 1984 . ,
. ,
.
.
.
1985 . "" (Plaza agreement) -
.
"" .

.
1987 . " " (,
, , ) .
19 .
1987 . .
,
.
19 1987 . " " -
. - 508 , 22%
, 1929. , .
.
1988 . "" .
.
,
.
1990 . .
.
,
().
1992 . ,
.
15

N AIM AN

N AIM AN

1992 r. .
- 1993 .
.
.
1993 . . - ,
. ,
.
4 1994 .
3.0 3.25 %.
300
( 1.7350 1.7650).
1994 . 40%.
.
1995. ,
.
8 1995 .
- 1.3430 88.60 .
50 ,
.
''" 8%.
19 1995 . .
.
- 1.3455 79.70 .
1995 12% 22%
. - .
20 1995 .
1%. ( 2%)
.
25 1995 . " " (,
, , , , ) .
.

.
29 1995 . 25 .

.
, , , , , .
.

. "" .
1996 . " ".
, /
110 .
.
1996 . !997 .
( 1992.) , 20%.
16

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- .
.
.
1997 . .
"" 7%.
.
8-9 1997 . " " .
.
.
. 5%.
27 1997 .
'' " . 1997 .
. ( -
)

. ,

.
1997 . .
" " 10%. -
, , - ( "" "").
1.1.2.
,
,

.
(
):
- - () ,
;
- - (), ,
, ;
- - ;
- ;
- .
- , .
,
( ).
-
( , )
.
-
.

17

NA1MAN

NAIMAN

-
() . - .
- , /
.
- / . , , .
,
. , , ,
.
, .
"" "".
.
, .
- /

.
.
.
- .
-
.
- ()

(, )
( ,
). .
XII ,

.
, .
- .

.
,
1.2. ( ).
1.2
(
)
(Bills)

( 1 1
0 )

(Treasury Notes)

( 10
)

(Government Bonds)

18

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

:
- - ,
;
- ( ) -
,
;
- - ;
- - , ;
- - ,
, .;
- - ;
- -
, , - .
XII-XV
- , , , ,
, .. ("Borsa")
Van der Burse,
(ter buerse) ,
.
XVI -
. ,
, . XVII
.
.
XVII (LSE),

. LSE "" ""
. ""
, " "
( - "to sell bear's skin before one has caught the bear").
,
. ,
. ,
.
-
(NYSE), 17 1792 . NYSE
3000 6 ,
50 .
- , - .

60- XVI , 1568.
. 90- XVII
,
- . 100
. - 19

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
3-30 ,
. ,
INTERNET .
NASDAQ -

().
,
. ,
, ,
10 500.
-, 1884
30 .
.
, 70- ,
.
- (DJI-30
- ), (S&P-500 - ), "" (FTSE-100 -), (DAX-30 - ) (Nikkei-225 - ).
.
- - DJ Industrial ( ,
30 ), DJ Transport ( , 20 ), DJ Utilites
( , 15 ), DJ Composite ( ,
).
( )
LIFFE (London International Financial Futures and
Options Exchange), .
(Chicago Board of Trade - ), (Chicago Mercantile Exchange -,
), DTB (Deutshe TerminBorse
- ).
1.2.

.

, .
,
,
.
.

,
.
-
, , .

20

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
,
.
.
:
- (trade deficit). , ,
;
- (payment deficit). ,
;
- : (CPI)
(PPI). , , ;
- (, ..). ,
, ;
- (GDP). GDP ,
, ;
- (unemployment) (employment). ( ), , . . ..
.
3 7
;
- (4, , 2, Ml, ). ,
, .

, , ;
- (elections) (, ..), .

, .
:
- (retail sales). ;
- (housing starts).
;
- (orders). , , ;
- (producer price).
;
- (industrial production).
;
- (productivity).
.

(Reuters, Dow Jones, AFX, Knight Ridder, Futures World News ..).
, :
- (forward);
- ;
21

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- ,
;
- (deposit repos);
- (NIKKEY, Dow Jones, DAX, FTSE ..) -
;
- (T-bills, T-bonds) -
,
, .
, , , , GDP.

,
,
.

.
, .
.
, .. .
.
,
. .
. -,
,
,
" , "".
,
, .
, ,
.
, :
- ;
- .
1.3.
1) .
, ,
.
,
16/09/96 21/09/96 18
. . ( 11 .
.) , 4 .
.
150 ,
. , 22

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

( ) ,
.
1.1
#100 1 hour USD/JPY

sen 17

2) .
. , ( ,
, ).
,
, , .
.
1.2
#337 dailv USD/JPY

23

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1.4.
, (
- )
, , , ,
, ,

. .
.
, - .
(, ..) ,
( ) -
. , - . .
,
.
, .
-
- , , .
,
,
. ,
, .
, .
. , ,
-
, (), (
). ,
,
. .
. , , . ,
, . , ,
-
.
. - ,
II .

, -
.
, ,

.

. 24

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
- .
.
. .
, ,
.

, .
.

.
( ).
.
.
- , ,
, ( ).
.
, - ,
. ,
, , .
- .
- ,

, ("
").
.
- . ,
(" ")
.
- ,
.

- . ,

.
.
.

.
, . - (
- , ..),
.
, - .
, . , 25

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
- .
( )
.
,
, (
). ,
- ( ).
(.
). -
,
.
.
.
( ) . . ( : 80-90-
).
( ) .
.
. . , ,
.

.
.
, ,
. . .
,
.
. , .
. , , .

( , , ,
, ..), ( ,
..).

. ,
.
- (
), (
26

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

), (
) ( ,
).
,
() ().
, ,
, , .
. , (
- ), .

, .
,
, .
,
, , .
, ( ,
, -
).
.
,
.
,
.
.
.
. ,
, , . ,
, ,
. .

, .

1.5.
, .
( ,
, , ..).
, ( ), ( ) .
, , . (, , ),
( ).
27

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
, , ,
, , "".
. .
,
, .
,
, ,
.
,
. .

.

. ,
.
, .
, . , 1.3. ,
:

1
3

1 - (
);
2-

( );
3 - ,
(
).
, ,
(, ).
(). ,
. .

28

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1.3

-

/
1

()

, ..

1.1

-
-
-
:
-
;
- ,
,
..;
- ,
..

-
- .
-
:
-

(
);
-

;
-

1.2

( )

:
-
;
- ,
;
-

-
-
-
:
-
;
-

;
-

:
-

-
,


;
-

>

, ..

,
,

2.1

(

)


(


)

:
- ;
- ;
-

,

>,

2.2

:
- ;
- ,
;
-

29

:
-


:
-
,

;
-
;

,

:
- ,

;
-

;
-

,

,


:
-

:
-
, ;
- ,

;
-

,

!,

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

-
, ().
.
,
. ( , ,
, )
, ,
. , , "". -. "". ( )
"", - ""
- "" ..
,
.
, , , , "
", .
. ,
,
. (
) ,
.
. ,
,
, . ,
, . ,
. ,

( - ).

(), "" ( ),
() .

, . ,
, .
, (
) "" .
, "" ""
.
, .
.


, .
-
.

,
.
30

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, , ,
.
, .
, ,
. , .
. , - " ".
, , , . .
-
. ,
.
,
, .
, ,
,
.
() .
,

.
:
= ( + + ) (1- ),
- - ;
- - ;
- - ;
- - ;
- - .
, ,
, ,
-
.
,
.
,
:
() = 1 / ; ()
= 1 / ,
- - / N;
- 1 - . ()
()
.
31

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. ,

.
,
.
, ,
, - .
, ,
.


. , , ,
. . ,
(
, , - ),
.
,
,
:
= ( + ) / ,
- - ;
- - ;
- - ( ,
, ).
,
, .
1.6.
" - ".
,
.
- .
, - .
,
.
.
, , - . , - ,
.
.
32

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
.
, , .
" ". , .
.
- .
,
.
.
.
.
1.3

,
, .
, , -
.
,
,
.
.
, - .
, ,
. FOMC ,
"" .

39-132

33

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
1.4.

" ".
.
, ,
, ,
.

34

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.

. "" ,

.
.
, ,
, , , , .
.
, .

, , ,
.

( ).
, .

2.1.
1) .
, ,
,
. , .
,
,
.
2) .

. :
- "" . ""
, ;
- "" .
, ;
- , .
"" (flat), "yuncoy" (whipsaw).
,
.
, .
, . , ,
.
, (
), , :
3*9-432

35

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- " , ",
- " , ".
3) .
,
, . , ,
- ,
.
, -, .

2.2.
1) (). :
) ;
) ;
) .
2) . :
) ;
) ;
) ;
) ;
) , .
3) (
).
) ( );
) ( , 1
0.3 ).
, ,
, .
2.3.
,
. ,
.
. , ,
("" ) ,
. ,
, . ,
.

().
. ,
"-", - " ".
()

36

>IAIMAN

NAIMAN

1) .

2) ().
(High)

(Open)

5 .

(Close)
(Low)

(high)
. (low) .
3) .
(High)

().
(Low)

, . . , ,
( ).
, .
4) -.

,
.
, ,

.
37

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ( 20). , .
- , .
5) .
.
, .
, .
.

.
. , .
, ,
"" ( chart- ).
USD/DEM
. ,
.
2.1

, .
:
- , ,
, , Bollinger, +/-DM,
ADX, , MACD;
- , Momentum,
ROC, CCI, RSI, Stochastic slow fest, MACD- ;
38

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- ,
;
- (" ", "-",
, , , ).

, , .
2.4. . .

- "the trend is your friend" (" ").
, :
.
, .
,
(),
. , , .

, .
, ,
.
:
- , - +++;
- , - ++;
- , - +;
:
- ;
- ;
-
.
, , ,
, ,
.
"
"

- . ,
,
, - ,
. ,
( " ").
- "" ,
.
39

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- "" ,

.
,
:
- ;
- ;
- MACD;
- ;
- Bollinger;
- +/- DM.

, ,
.
, .
,
,
() .
2.4.1. (" " - Resistance)
(resistance) (support)
. , -
.
.
(, ) .
, ,
.
,
.
, .
"" "" ,
.
( "").
(, ) . ,
. "" "".
, ,
- .
, ,
.

,
, .
,
,
. ,
,
,
.
40

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
-.
.
, -
,
.
, , ,
.

+++

++

""

""

""

2.4.2. (" " - Support)

+++

++

""

""

""

41

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.2

2.4.3.

+++

++

""

""

""

42

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
2.3

2.4.4.

+++

++

""

"" ""

43

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.4

2.4.5. :
) : "-";

+++

+++

44

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

-.
" -",
, , , , .
"-" ,
.
, "-"
, . ,
"-".
,
. ,
.
, , ,
, -
"-", .

. , - .
2.5

45

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- -;

+++

+++

++

++

-
. / RSI, .
,
,
. ,
.
. ,
.
.

46

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.6

- "";

-

"".
.

47

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.7.

) : "":

+++

+++

""

""
48

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- "";

+++

+++

""

""

2.8

- "":

49

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

+++

+++

""

""
2.9

- (Gap) ;

50

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

+++

+++

""

""

2.9

- (Gap) ;

50

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

+++

+++

, Low
High, - High Low.
, ()
.
,
.

, .
.
2.10

51

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

) , : ( ).

+++

++

++

""

+++

++

""

52

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

++

++

""

""

""

""

53

NAIMAN

++

NAIMAN

+++

""

++

++

+++

""

54

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.11

++

++

""

55

+++

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

++

+++

++

++

56

NAIMAN

+++

+++

NAIMAN

++

++

++

""

57

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.12

, ,

resistance support. .

58

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.13

:
- ( );
- . ,
. ,
;
- .
, .
, ;
59

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

-
, ,
;
- .
. ,
3/4
.
,
.

2.4.6.
, :
- resistance support,

;
-
;
- ,
.
, ;
- , ;
- ( 5
).
,
.
.
;
-
,
.
:
- ,
( );
- ,
(
);
- , (, "", - "").
,
() .
.

60

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.14

:
" , . . ."

2.4.7. :
) ;
) ;
) .
,
, .
1 . 2 - 2.5 .
3-6 .
1 3 .
, .
.
():
) - , ;
) - ;
) - .
, .
,
. , .
61

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
.

,
.

(
- open interest - ). , , . ,
.
1/4 1/3
1/5 1/4 .
. , .
.
"" "". , ,
, .
, ,
. ,

. , , ,
.
, , . , 3/4 ,
3/4 1/2 .

. .
( ) .
, ( ),
,
. ,
.
.
, , .
2.15

62

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
2.16

2.15.
, , , .
.
63

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. " "
,
.
. .
, .
,
( ) ( ).
, .
- ,
. , , , .

2.4.8.

.
, .
,
2.17.
, .
.
2.17

.
(. 2.18).

64

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.18.

,
( "" 2.18.).

.
.

2.5.
2.5.1.
, ,
, ,
.
, .
,
" ".
, . ,
, ,
, -
( ,
). , , -
. . -
.
, "
".
-
5 9-432

65

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, .
- .

.
.
-
( ).
,
.
:
- , ,
(,
89, -
21). , , .
;
- , ;
- ;
- ;
- , , .
:
- ;
- ;
- .
.
("Moving Average - MA)
:
= ( ) / .

, , ,
. ,
.

(Weighted Moving Average - WMA)

"",
. :
WMA = ( ) / ( ).
, ,
, . ,
( )
. (
) WMA. (
) , WMA.
(Exponentially Moving Average - )
,
66

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, ,
, . :
() = (-1) + ( [ () - (-1) ] ),
- () , (-1) - ;
- = 2 / (n+1), n - .
,
.
. ,
"" -
.
- .
.

.
, .
, . 6 - 8, 13, 21 . 1-
- 8, 13, 21, 55 89 . 3- - 8, 34,
55, 89,144 . 1- - 8, 34, 55, 89, 144
. 15- - 34, 55, 144
.

2.5.2. :
:
- ;
- , (
);
- ;
- . ,
.
,
. ,
.
-
, .
, .
,
. ,
, .
, ,
, .
,
.
5*9-412

67

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, .
(, MA, WMA)
, .
, .

) ( ,
):
- :

+++

++

.
- :

++

68

+++

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. .
2.19

) ( ,
):
- :

++

69

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
- :

++

.
2.20

, , , . , .
. ,
, ,
.

70

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

) (
, ):

- , :

++

- , .

++

71

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.21

) .
.
- .
,
. , ,
, - .
2.22

72

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.6.

2.6.1.
.
,
,
.
,
, . ,
.
, .
,
, ,
.
( 1
).
.
,
, .
6- - 1-8; 8-13; 8-21; 1-21;
- 55-144 89-144.
1- - 8-13; 8-21; 1-55; 1-89;
.
3- - 34-55; 1-89; 1-144; 8-89;
- 13-144 21-144.
1- - 1-34; 34-55; 1-144; 8-89;
- 55-89.
15- - 34-144; 1-144; 1-55.

. ,
, .
,
.
:
- ;

- ;
-
. , - / .
.) )
.2.5.2. ,
( ).
.
73

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.23

2.24

74

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.25

2.6.2.
.

, .. .
, , "" (volatility).
-: , .

SMA.
SMA (SMA, WMA,
, ).
, ,
. .
( ) ,
- (Price Channel Upper - PCU).
SMA
. , SMA ,
SMA, -
d SMA.
U = { 1 + / 100} * SMA (,)

L = { 1 - d / 100} * SMA (P,n),

- U - ;
- L - ;
- -
;
- d - ;
- SMA(P,n) - .
75

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
, , ,
, .
. , , v.
2.26

2.26 - , U L - 1,
, U L - 2.
PCU .
.
. PCU .

.
(Bollinger
Band - ). ,

.
. .
.

. , PCU, .
Bollinger ,
. , .
Bollinger - 5% , 95%
.
76

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

Bollinger ,
, .
,
Bollinger .
, ,
Bollinger .
2.27

Bollinger .
, - .
, .
Bollinger " ", . .
.
, -
"" "".
, " " .
,
Bollinger. ,
.
) Bollinger.
Bollinger ,
.
.

77

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.28

) Bollinger.
Bollinger
.
.
78

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.29

Bollinger .
2.30

79

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

Bollinger . , , Bollinger,
.
Bollinger ,
. .
2.31

2.6.3. MACD ( -
--)
MACD ,
, .
- .
MACD, :
- MACD , ;
- MACD-,
.
) MACD-.
MACD (
12) ( 26),
:
MACD = (9) [],

- = (12) [1] - (26) [ij;

- i - .

.
80

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

MACD- .
MACD- .
, .
MACD- :
- MACD ("" );
- MACD (
);
- , MACD
( ).
MACD- , , , .
.
, ,
MACD. -. .
" - ".
, MACD
. .
.
, MACD
. , .
.
. , , .
MACD- .
2.32

1. -
MACD .
.
2. , .. MACD . ( - "").
3. . ,
MACD .
*4:

81

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4. . .
5. - .
.
6. .
.
.
7. . .
8. .
9. .
MACD-
, .
, MACD-, , , .
, .

.
, .
- ,
.
MACD-:
- MACD- , ( ), ,
, .
,
, ;
- MACD-,
, ;
- MACD- ,
.
MACD;
- MACD- , .
.
,
.
,
, - .
, ,
.
- .
- MACD-, , .
, - .
- MACD- -
.
82

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

( )

( )

.
2.33.

, MACD- . - -

6-9-432

83

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4. . .
5. - .
.
6. .
.
.
7. . .
8. .
9. .
MACD-
, .
, MACD-, , , .
, .

.
, .
- ,
.
MACD-:
- MACD- , ( ), ,
, .
,
, ;
- MACD-,
, ;
- MACD- ,
.
MACD;
- MACD- , .
.
,
.
,
, - .
, ,
.
- .
- MACD-, , .
, - .
- MACD- -
.
82

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

( )

( )

.
2.33.

, MACD- . - -

6-9-432

83

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
.
. ,
, ,
(stop-loss) .
, , MACD ( ) , .. "" . .
) MACD.
MACD ,
( (12) (26) - . MACD-),
- , .
.
MACD :
- MACD -
;
- MACD ( );
- ,
"" ( ) MACD.
.
,
MACD. , ,
.
, .
, ,
MACD. -.
MACD.
, MACD . ,
. .
, MACD,
, ,
. , ,
- .

84

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.34

. MACD ,
MACD ,
.
,
,
MACD-.
MACD
.
2.35

85

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, (
) , MACD (
) . , .

2.7.
2.7.1. PTP (Parabolic Time Price System)
FTP 1976 . SAR "stop
and revers" - " ".
.
. , , , .
,
.
. , ,
" ". ,

.
.
- .
:
Stop() = Stop() + AF * [ () - Stop() ],
- St() - ;
- Sto() - ;
- () - :
- (high),
- (low);
- AF - - ,
.
. AF,
, 0.02. AF

.
5 ,
AF = (0.02 + (0.02*5)) = 0.12.
high 2 AF = (0.02 + (0.02*2)) = 0.06.
AF 0.2, 9 .
0.02.
.
,
.
. ,
, - .
86

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, .
:
- ,
, - . ,
, ;
- ,
;
- - .
, , ,
.
( ) ( ).
,
.
.
2.36

, , ,
. .

.

2.7.2. " " (Directional

Movement - +/- DM)
. - ,
.
" " ,
- .
87

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
DM , - .
Directional movement (+/-DM) -
. , -
.
. ,
.
+/-DM:
+DM = (High - Highl) / (High - Low), High > Highl;
-DM = (Lowl - Low) / (High - Low), Low < Lowl,
- High - ;
- Highl - ;
- Low - ;
-Lowl - .
DM :
- .

. ,
1 2. ;
- 1 2.
,
. ;
- 1 2,
. 1 2,
;
- , , ,
( ).
2.37

" ":
- , +DM ( ) -DM
( );
- , - DM +DM.
88

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.7.3.
(ADX)
ADX +/-DM. ,
+/-DM, ADX,
.
. ADX , ,
. . ADX , , .
, .
2.38

+/- DM
ADX. :
- , +DM -DM , - DM
+DM;
- ADX , ;
- ADX - . , .
ADX - .
;
- ADX - ,
. +/-DM ()
, ;
- ADX ,
. ,
+/- DM;
- ADX ,
. ,
;
- ADX , ,
" ".

89

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.8.
, ,
MACD , :
- (, );
- ( );
- (, ,
);
- , ( ""
).
. "":
- ""
"" , , ,
;
-
( , ,
);
- "" ;
- , ,
, ;
- ,

.
, .
.
,
. .
, .
:
- - , ;
- ;
- - ;
- ;
- .
. , , - .

2.9. 2.9.1.
,
. ,
. ,
, . , ,
90

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, . -
,
. .
1) Momentum, ROC CCI.
Momentum.
Momentuma
. .
:
= 1 - ,
- - ;
- 1 , 0 - .
, Momentuma
, .
Momentuma {Commodity
Channel Index - CCI). Momentuma,
. , CCI
-100 +100. , ,
, ( ).
CCI - 8 . CCI
(Donald Lambert)
+100 -100 0.015:

- X = (1/3) (Close + High + Low),

- Close - ;
- High - ;
- Low - ;
- = (1/n) - e [X(i) - SMA(X,n)],
- - ;
- X(i) - i;
- SMA(X,n) - .
CCI "" , , ,
, .
(Rate of Change - ROC) -
Momentuma. , ,

. ROC Momentum,
, 0, 100.
Momentuma - CCI,
Momentum.
91

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.39

2) RSI ( ).
RSI . . (Welles J.Wilder Jr.) 1978
" ".
RSI
Momentum.
. RSI :
RSI = 100 - [ 100 / ( 1 + RS ) ] ; RS = AUx / Adx,
- ( RSI);
- AU - ;
- AD - .
, 'RSI . ,
, . -
"" "".
,
.
RSI
, .
. 92

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

( ) . , .
,
, RSI
. RSI - 8,
( 14,
,
).
2.40

3) Stochastic ( ), Stochastic slow (PKS), Stochastic fast (PKF).

. ,
.

.
. -
, . ,
,
,
.
:
,
. , .
- %. %D. %R.
% %D ,
, , . .
93

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. %
5 :
% = 100 [ ( 1 - L5 ) / ( 5 - L5 ) ],
- 1 - ;

- L5 - 5 ;
- 5 - S .
% , %D. %D:
%D = 100 CL3 / HL3,
- CL3 - (Cl - L5);
- HL3 - (5 - L5).
,
5 3.
%R % .

.
, :
- % %D.
;
- % %D ,
, ;
- % %D 70-80 30-20 , %R - 90 10.
Stochastic slow (PKS) fast (PKF) - , . PKS
, PKF,
. PKF ,
, PKS.
, :

- , ;
- , ;
- ;
- PKS PKF ,
, ;
- ,
.
.

94

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.41

.
4) RSI.
RSI , RSI ( 0 100) .
, a RSI
. RSI
.
, RSI, ,
, .
RSI
RSI ,
, .
5) RSI Momentum .

( ).


. ,
, ,
, , , .

95

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

6) .
Aleksanders filter (ALF) - Momentum. - 8. ALF
. ALF 0. ALF , Momentum.
2.42

(Kairi - KRI) - Momentum. 0, .

- 13. KRI .
. ,
.
KRI:

- - ;
- SMA(P,n) - .
, ,
KRI
. -
.

, KRI
, - .
, ,
.
96

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.43

1 ( ) -1 ( ) KRI
.
.
<Oscillator - OSC).
.
. -
,
:
OSC = SMA(P,m) - SMA(P,n),
- SMA(P,m) - m - ;
- SMA(P,n) - - .
, , ,
, . ,
,
, .
, ,
. , , . ,
, .
OSC
, .
.

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.44.

OSC . OSC (
OSC , ).
, OSC
. - ,
, . .
- OSC .
(Ultimate Oscillator - UOS).
, ACD, (Larry Williams).

.
,
.
UOS :

- Close(i) - ;
- Low(i) - k;
- High (i) - k.
UOS .
.
98

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.45

(Percent of Resistance - R.
, ,

. PCR . ,
() .
.

:
- high - ;
- low - ;
- - .

PCR, 100%, , 0
- .
overbought () PCR, 80%, oversold
() - 20%. ,
, .

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.46

PCR (50),
.
.
(Force Index Short Term - FI). FI .
, .
. , .
:
FI = Volume * (Close - Close) / 1se,
- Volume - ;
- Close - ;
- Close - .
FI 2,
- 13.
, - FI . FI
,
- .
FI .
, . ,
. , , .
, .
(Money Flow Index - MFI).
(RSI) . MFI ,
. :
100

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
MFI = 100 - [ 100 / (1 +MF) ],

- MF -
. . - , - , - . .
MFI 15- GBP/USD.
2.47

( ), /.

2.9.2.
1) .
MACD,
- , , - , .
:
- ( Momentum CCI -,
RSI, PKS PKF - 50, ROC - 100);
- (
RSI 60 80, 20 40;
PK.S PKF - 90, 10; ). , RSI 30 70,
- 40 80, - 20 60.
.
- ;
- , .

( , ).

, . -

101

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ()
() ,
().
,
. .
.
, ,
. -. .
,
. .
.
, . , .
.

.
2.48

1. .
, ,
2. .
.
3. .
-, .. , " "
1.
4. . ,
.
5. . .
6. - .
.
7. .
.
8. . .
9. .
. .
10. . .
11. .

102

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2) .
,
RSI ( ) .

.
) ( , ).

(

,
;

,

)

(

.
;

,

;


.

)

2.49

103

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

) ( , ).

(

,
;



)

(

,
;

,

;

,

)
2.50

104

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

) ( , ).

2.51

3) RSI.
RSI ,
, .:
- RSI;
- , (
);
- RSI;
- .
, RSI
, RSI.
, RSI. ,
RSI 21. RSI 8.
21-8 = 13.
.
( 34) - .
105

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4) RSI Momentum .
- ,
. , ,
.
.
- .
, ,
. ,
3.
,
, .
, . , 8. 3.
8 - 3 = 5.
5) .
,
. , , . , ,
, - .
.
,

.
, . ,
.
.
2.52

106

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.10.
2.10.1.
FOREX .
, 5
USD.
.
, , , (
) . ,
- ,
5 . ., .
, ,
,
( ) .
( , ,
..) :
- (
) ;
- (
" " - "open interest").
2.10.2.

, -
"" "".
,
, :
1)
V:

,
, (
..), .
, .
,
.
2) - 11 14 .
3)
. , .
107

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4)
.
, .
5)
. ,
.
6) (
, ) ,
( - , ,
).
, .
- .
17 .
7) ,
, .

( ).
.
, , ,
.
8) , ,
.
2.53

:
- ,
(, .. ) ,
-
.

. 108

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.


.
( , )

2.54

, , - .
/ ,
, , , . ,
-
.

109

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
( , )

2.55

, .

,
, .
, ,
. .
, . :

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.56

( , )

2.57

111

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.10.3.
OBV- On Balance Volume - .

1963 . OBV
, ,
.
.
2.58

OBV
.
-:
) V -
, ;
) OBV -
, ;
) , .
, a OBV
, ,
. , a OBV
, ,
.
, .

/ (Volume Accumulation - VA) - .

OBV
- . . VA:
VA = {[( - L) - ( - )] / ( - L)} V, ; L - ; ; V - .
112

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
(, , ),
.
-
.
VA
-
, -
.
, n- .
, :
VA = e VA / e V.
, .
- .
.
VA ,
OSC, (Chaikin Oscillator - ):
= SMA(VA,m) - SMA(VA,n),
- m - ;
- - .
OSC.
A/D - Accumulation / Distribution - / .
1972 () , () , :
A/D = [( - ) / ( - L)] V,
- ;
L - ;
- ;
- ;
V - .
A/D . 1
/ A/D .

113

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.59

OBV, - - (Volume Price Trend

-VPT) ,
.

- VPT(l) - VPT;
- Volume - , ;
- - ;
- (1) - .

overbought () ,
oversold () . overbought
oversold, ,
, .

2.11.

,
.
USD/DEM 01/12/96.
-1.5395.

114

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.60

- ,
.
- , , 12 .

2.11.1.
1) .
:
- ;
- ;
- RSI;
- MACD;
- ;
- +/- DM;
- ADX.

.
, ,
.
.

115

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.61

1. .
, .
, ,
.
MACD 0, .
- 1.55 1.58, - 1.50 1.47.
2. , .
8 13.
. 8 13 - 1.5050,
. +/-DM ,
+DM ( )
-DM. .
3. Bollinger . Bollinger (1.5050)
(1.5750). RSI .
-,
RSI (81.5)
(58.5).
4. , .
, . ADX
, ADX ,
.
. ,
. ,
. - ,
.
116

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. , .
, .
(1.55 1.58) 1,5250.
1.58. 1.55, .
, ,
.
.
.
2.62

1. , ,
. , .

.
, -
. MACD 0.
( ). MACD
, MACD .
, MACD. - 1.54 1.50.
2. . .
1.51,
. +/-DM . +DM
- DM.
.
117

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. Bollinger .
. .
(1.5150)
(1.55). RSI .
RSI - .
4. .
. ,
. ADX ,
.
. ,
( low high ,
high). . - ,
.
.
.
1.54.
1.50. .
12-
.
(
) .
2.63

118

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1.
.
1.5350. MACD
0 - . - 1.54 1.5450. - 1.5350, 1.53, 1.5250 1.52.
2. .
. .
1.52,
. +/-DM
.
.
3. Bollinger .
(1.5350). Bollinger
(1.52) (1.54). RSI .
4. ,
,
, ,
. ADX
.
. ( ).
,
.
, .
. . ,
, (1.52,
-1.53). .
PHCVHOK 2.64

119

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1. .
MACD ,
. - 1.54.
- 1.53, 1.5250, 1.52, 1.51.
2. ,
. .
. 1.53
1.52, 1.54-1.53.
+/-DM . .
3. Bollinger .
Bollinger (1.53)
(1.5450). RSI .
4. , .
, . ADX
,
.
. .
.
- , .
12- .
. .
.

:
- ,
;
- ,
;
-
;
- ;
- ;
- ,
.
12- - ,
, ,
:
- ;
- ;
- ;
-
.

:
- 8, 13 21.;
120

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- RSI CCI - 8;
- MACD - 8-13-21;
- PTP - 0,2;
- ADX - 8;
- +/- DM - 8;
- - 21.
2) .
.
2.65

( -) ,
- .

. , . .

. , -
, .
,
.
,
("" ).
,
.
, ,
.

121

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. .
, ,
.
3) .
.
2.66

RSI , (66), -
.
CCI . .

MACD-
.
PKS ,
, .
.
.

122

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.67

RSI
.
CCI RSI.
MACD-
. ,
, . .
PKS ( ).
.
.
2 .68

123

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, :
- RSI (100) , ;
- CCI , , RSI.
. ,
, .
;
- MACD- , . ;
- PK.S .
. .
, , .
12- .
2.69

12- :
- RSI ,
;
- CCI .
;
- MACD- , . ;
- PK.S .
. .
12- , ,

, .
.
( ) ,
, 12 . , , , .
124

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4) .

.
2.1

"
"

12

resistan

1.55
1.58
1.54
1.54
1.5450
1.54
1.54
1.55

support
1.50
1.47
1.50
1.53,
1.525
1.52
1.53,
1.525
1.52
1.53
1.52

, (, ) 12
. ,
.
.
, ,
, ,
, . ,
.
, .
,
.
2.70

125

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, - ,
. ( ).
, .
,
- 1.S300.
USD/DEM
( 01/03/97.).
2.71.

.
,
. 1.58
1.58 1.60.
,
, - .
USD/DEM
.

2.11.2.
, , ,
, .
.
, .
,
( , ).
,
"" , ,
"" 20-30 .
.
.
GBP/DEM 29/10/96 01/
11/96. .
, , .
126

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

"" ( ).
:
- ;
- ( ) - PKS, RSI, CCI, MACD-;
- MACD;
- Bollinger;
- ;
- +/-DM;
- ADX;
- .
15 5
( 8 ).
:
-
, ,
- ;
- (""
),
3 . .
:
- - 55, 89,144;
- PKS 5/5/5;
- RSI CCI 8;
- MACD MACD- - 8/13/21;
- ADX +/-DM - 8;
- - 0.2;
- Bollinger -21.
2.72

127

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, .
-
? .
,
+/- DM ADX ( +DM -DM,
).
, (
).
.
, MACD- -.
, , , .
10 ( ). .
2.73

.
, .
. . MACD
. MACD- . , .
.
.
2.4340.
.
128

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.74

.
,
.
2.43 , ,
(2.4340 - 2.43).
, .. , MACD-
, ADX .
.
,
.

. .
.

2.11.3.

( ), .. :
- , (+/- 5 ) - -;
- , ;
- , , - -.

,
, .
129

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1)
, , .. -
:
-
- ;
- , -
;
- -
.
2) , , :
-
- ;
- , -
;
- -
.
3) , :
-
- ;
- , -
;
- -

;
- ,
, ,
.
,
, .
2.11.4.
:
- - ;
- -
, ;
- -
;
- - ,
;
- , ,
, .

130

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.12.

2.12.1. (Candlesticks)

, XVIII
.
80-
.
:

, .
, ,
.
2.2
()

( )

1
234

, ""

4, 8

56
78

, ""

4, 8

9 10

:
- - ,
.
,
;
- - , . - , - ;
- - - ,
.

.
131

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.75

,
.
.
,
.
2.76

2.12.2.

1) .

1100 1200 .
, .
: 1+1=2; 1+2=3; 2+3=5 ..
-1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144 ..
, .

0.618,
.
, 0.618 61,8%.
132

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
[-]. [-]
, - .

[-] ,
. ,
,
[-]. [-]
( ),
61,8%, 50% 38,2%
.
( )
. .
.
resistance, - support.
,
, . -
, .
, , ,

, .
, .
. ,
, .
, resistance.
2.77

133

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

( )
-
.
, , , -
.

,
. . , ,
- .
2.78

2) .
, . . , ,
.
,

( , 5+8=13, 8+13=21 ..).
.
, ,
, , (
).
, ,
. ,
.
2.79. ,
.
, 134

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
. , .

.
.
- .
.
.
, , , .
2,80

135

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

3) .

. (1878-1955)
.
, .
.
45- (
1 1, ).
.
9 :
2.3
TIME
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
8

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

PRICE
8
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

,
82 1/2
75
71 1/4
63 3/4
45
26 1/4
18 3/4
15
7 1/2

- [71 1/4] [18 3/4]

.
,
, ,
. ,
.
.
2.81. , ,
45- .
2.81

136

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.82
45- .
- . ,
, . ,
.
2.82

2.12.3. "-"

- (points & figures)

( -).
1886 , 1901 ,

.

( 10 ) ,
.

137

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.83

138

NAIMAN

'

NAIMAN

:
2.84

, " , .
.
-
,
.
2.85

, -
.
139

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.13.
2.13.1.
, ,
,
. ,
,
, .
,
, FOREX
.
.
, .
" " .
,
,
.
.
.
1) .
2)
, , , ,
. ,
, ""-"" .
3) ,

"".
4) .
5) , , (-
).
6) , ,
, , .
7) ,
.
,
-
.
,
.
.
8) , . , ,
, . ,
- ,
140

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. : ,
. ,
( ),
.
, - . , :
- - .
, .
,
, .
;
- - ,
.
;
- -
.
9) , -
. , ,
, .
, ,
, , .
- .
10)
.
,
.
. , ,
( , ),
.
11) , .
,
, .
"" ,
. , ,
, . ,
"", .
12) "" ,
,
. ,
, , .
,
. , "" "" , , .
141

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
13)
- -.
,
.
( ),
.
.
14) () .
, . , , .
.
15) :
- . , ;
- - ,
- ;
-
( - );
- .
16) .
,
.
2.13.2. ,

-
.
, , ,
.
flat
, .. , , ,
. flat,
-.
.
-.
.

.
, flat.
142

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. ""
,
.
.. -

. .

. ,
, .

.
.
( .2.12.1)
. ,
, "". ""
:

"" .
1) , :
- ;
-
(
);
- , - ;
-
.
, .
.
- .
.
2) , :
- (

);
- ;
- ;
- .
,
"" ,
.
3) () , :
- ;
- ;
- ;
143

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- ; 4)
, :
- ;
- ;
- .
.
,
.
= i,
- ;
i - .
= i,
- ;
i - .
, ,
- .
> , .
< , .
,
.
() , (),
- .
,

.
> (1 - ) > (1 - ),
( 1 ,
0 - ).
> (1 - ) < (1 - ), ,
.
< (1 - ) > (1 - ), ,
.
< (1 - ) < (1 - ),
.
.

.
= i,
- ;
i - .
= i,
- ;
i - .
,
, - - ,
, .

.
.
144

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

:
= 1/1;
= COH1 / 1.

.
.

, .
> , > > ( ,
),
, .
(<),
, .
.
< , < < ( ), , . .
(>),

.
GBP/USD 25/11/
96. 27/12/96. "".

BULL - ;
** - BEAR - ;
*** - MINIBULL - ;
**** - MINIBEAR - .
145
2.4

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
(. )
(. ""),
.

. , ,
.
,
. , 02/12/96. 08/12/96.
, . , -
.
"".
,
.
2.86

USD/DEM ,
, , .

"".
) , , ( 8).
1) .
,
, , -
.
2) , .
.

146

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

3) ,
.
4)
. .
5) ,
. .

.
6) . ,
, -
.
) , .
1) ,
"" ( ,
- ).
, .
. "" ,
. "" , , , ,
. ,

.
2) .
. ,
.
) , "" .
1) ,
.
2) . ,
. .
3) "" , .
-
.
4) , "" ,
. , ""
.
) ( -
8 34).
1)
.
2) .
,
USD/DEM.

147

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.87

.
, - . .
. .
, .
34.
(34) .
.
2 88

,
( ).
, .
148

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
,
.
2.89

"" - . , .
, "" (
). . -,
() ( )
. , -, ""
.
, 2.89
"" (8)
, . , ""
( ).

2.13.3. / (Bullish-Bearish
Indicator -
BBI - , ,
- (One BBI - OBBI)
( BBI) .
BBI :

OBBI
10-30 .
149

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

BBI , , .
, OBBI BBI. OBBI
, a BBI -
.
.
OBBI.
,
,
, , .
2.5

14:20
14:22
14:24
14:26
14:28
14:30
14:32
14:34
14:36
14:38
14:40
14:42

(20 )

USD/DEM

X
X
X
1.5048
X
X
X
1.5055
X
X
X
1.5053
X
X
X
1.5050
X
X
X
1.5050
X
X
X
1.5055
X
X
X
1.5058
X
X
X
1.5060
X
X
X
1.5065
X
X
X
1.5055
1.5048
1.5065
1.5055
1.5058
1.5050
1.5065
1.5056
1.5060

OBBI

X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X

12

BBI.

2.6

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

BBI:

BID ASK
1,5050
1,5060
1,5060
1,5048
1,5045
1,5055
1,5047
1,5053
1,5038
1,5062

14:30
14:31
14:32
14:29
14:26
14:30
14:30
14:31

14:15
14:31

- 1,5045; -1,5062;
- 1,5054; (
) - 1,5060.

150

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

OBBI.
.
1) 1 > , , - , 1
- , -
.
2) , , - .
3) , , - .
4) ( - MINO) > (1 - MIN1),
MINO MIN1 - , ,

1 - , ,
.

5) ( - ) > (1 - 1),
1 - , ,
.
6) ( - MINO) > (MAX1 - MIN1),

, .
,
OBBI, .

BBI.
.
1) 1 > , , - , , - .
2) , , - .
3) , , - .
,
BBI, .
OBBI BBI. USD/DEM 27/12/96.

151

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.7

30
, ,
BBI. 14:35 , BBI -
"DOWN".
1.5584 1.5578.
, BBI

. OBBI ,
.
OBBI BBI .
OBBI,
USD/DEM Harlow Buttler (London).
OBBI - "1" "-1". ,
, - .
, ,
.

152

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.90

USD/DEM
.
.
, . ,
Harlow Buttler . . . .
,
.
OBBI , ,
- .
OBBI, .
-
, -. ,
. , , .

153

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.91.

,
, BBI.
USD/DEM 31
, FOREX-.
.
2.92

154

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

BBI . 8.
.
, . , .
,
- . ,
.
.
, BBI .
,
.
.
BBI:
- , , ("MIN"
"") - .
"" , .
"MIN" , ;
- .
, ,
- . ,
, ;
- .
. - ;
- . ,
. - .

, .
2.93

155

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
whipsaw).
, ,
. , ,
,
.
2.94.

13. ,
, ,
.
2.95

.
8.
156

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

I :
- ,
BBI;
- . ,
.

2.14.
2.14.1. ,
, .
, , "" ,
. ,
, .
, .
.

- .
- ,
, , .
,
.

, .
,
.
(
).
, -
,
- .
, ,

. .
, ,
.
, ,
, , ,
.
,
.
, ,
.

,
.
, . ,
, . ,
157

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
,
15 % .
, :
- ;
-
;
-
.
2.14.2. (, , ).

FOREX- , . ( 19-00
) . ,
, .
FOREX- , , .
,
.
, ,
, .
- , ,
.
, .
, "",
.

. , - , ,
. ,
, 21-00 ,
. ,
20-21 .
,
. - . ,
( ),
, .

2.15.
2.15.1.
,
- , , ,
, , ..
. , ,
158

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, .
.
,
.
.
2.96

.
- ,
.
. .
. -
1 2.

.
- , , .
.
2.97

159

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
.
,
. , 40 , -20,

(40 / 20 = 2).
.
.

.
, .
. , .

.
2.98

160

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- .
- , , . .
.
,
2.8.
2.8

18

54
18
9

77.94
38.97

19.48
9.74
4.97

68.2
34.1
17.0
8.5
4.3

18- . -
.

(. 2.9).
2.9

18
9

54
18
40
20
80
40
20
10
5

,
. ,
( ), -
( ).
, 2.99.

161

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.99

:
- ;
- - ;
- ( ) - 9 26 ;
- - 4 ;
- , ;
- / - 2 .
,
2.100.

162

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.100

- .
, ()
.
() , .
.
2.101

163

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. ,
USD/DEM ,
.
2.102

, ,
( ). ( )
, . ,
.
:
- ();
- ;
- ;
- ;
- , .
.
2.103

164

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
.
.
.

, .

(
) .
- . ,
( 34).
GBP/USD.
2.104

2.15.2. ("Bell curve model")

30 .

:
- ;
- ;
- .
4 4.5 . 28
/ .
15 / .
.
,
.

165

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- - 20
/ . 12 /
, 8 / - . ,
.
- .

.
.
. ,
.
- . 39 +/- ( 240
). 5 7
. .
, .

.
.
2.105

. .

166

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.106

. , .
, ( 1)
. ( 2 3)
, , .
, , ,
, , .
3 .
2.107

167

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4 1 .
- 42 , - 8.

, 107
(87 20 - ).
37 7 .

. ,
, .
, .

.

. , . -
. .

.
. ,
,
. .
. -
.
.

,
.
. , .
, .
, , .

, .
, ,
.
2.15.3.

" ", 1938 .

, .2.11.2. 80-
8 , 5
( - 1-5) 3 -
( - ,,).

168

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.108

1, 3 5 ( ) -
. - .
2 4 - 1 3 .
.
, , - .
, - .

. ,
. , , 1.618
( ).
4 .
0.382,
0.50, 0.618, 1.618. , .
-
, - .
, ,
8 ( ),
8 . ,
, 8 .
, , , .

169

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, , , 2.109.
2.109

, 8 34
. 144 ..
.
, 5 21
. , 89 ..
, 3 13
. 55 ..
,
.
.
,
.
, , ,
.
,
. , ,
, . , 8
(5 3 ), ,
- 5 3
. ,
, . , USD/DEM DEM/USD. ,
USD/DEM
DEM/USD. : .
170

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

GBP/USD.
2.110

,
. . ,
.

. , , .
.
. high low .
2.10
(
)

1
2
3
4
5

0.382 ( 0.5 0.618) 1

1.618 ( 0.618 2.618) 1
0.382 ( 0.5) 3
0.382 ( 0.5 0.618) 3
1.0 ( 0.618 0.5) 5
0.382 ( 0.5)
1. 618 ( 0.618 0.5)

171

0.561
2.911
0.518
0.682
1.140
0.423
0.496

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

10%. .
.
, (0.382, 0.5, 0.618
..).

. .
2.111

2.16.
2.16.1. - (NH-L)
- ,
(, ),
, .
,
.
NH-L :
- - .
,
. 100,
.
- -100,
. ,
, , ;
- NH-L.
, - . ,
.
. .
, - ;
- NH-L ( ). NH-L
, . NH-L
172

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- .
, -
.
.
NH-L,
10 20. 10
( 20) . -
.

. "" , .

2.16.2. (TRIN)
TRIN .

.
(
).
( ).
TRIN:

TRIN .
8 20. TRIN
( ) .
( )
, ( ) - .
, TRIN, ,

. ( - 0.65 0.70, - 0.70
0.75), . (
-0.90 0.95, - 1.00 1.05)
. , TRIN, 0.75
0.85, - .
TRIN .
, .
TRIN:
- , ;
- , ;
-
.
TRIN NH-L:
- TRIN , NH-L
, , , ,
. TRIN
NH-L;
173

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- TRIN , NH-L
, . TRIN -,
NH-L , .
TRIN ,
.

2.16.3.
- ( A-D).
.
A-D , ,
, .
A-D A-D.
A-D, .
A-D.
A-D
. A-D
. , ,
. ,
.
(ST1X).
21- , Ad:

.
(19- 39-), Ad DC,

.
/ .
10- DDL STIX.
DDL
DDI:
K_DDI = (Ad - DC) / (Ad + DC). 174

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

DDI,
.
(MAS).
A-D, 15 . MAS -
" ". , -
.
MAS -
" ". MAS .

.

2.17.
2.17.1.
.
.
.
, .
() . -
,
, ,
.
.

, .
.

.
(
) . ,
60 %,
. . ,
, ,
.
, .
.

175

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2.17.2. .
1) " "
" " , .
. MACD-. , . , MACD
. , - . MACD
. " " . , , .
( - " ").
.
, RSI ,
.
, . ,

. ,
, .
" " ,
.
,
.
, ,
, .
, ,
,
. "" .
, , , ,
.
.
" ",
- . ,
.
.
,
. /
.
.

" "
. - -,

, ,
, .

176

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.112

2) " " (Elder-ray).

" "
.

(-ray),
. , .
,
.
- .
:
-
-, ;
- ;
- ;
- .
, 13.
- .
.
. :
= High - ,
- High - ;
- - .
177

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, , .
.
( ):
= Low - ,
- Low - .
,
. .


. , . ,
, .
,
.
.
. , ,
.
.
.
,
. .
, ,
.
. ,
,
.
-
.
.

USD/DEM.
2.113

178

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
" " . , ,
(, , ).
,
- .
2.17.3. "FOREX-94"

"FOREX-94"
(). " - Market
Rainbow". ,
,

- .
" " ,
, , .
, - RNBW.
"FOREX-94" ,
, . " "
- , .
. - -
"Buy" "Sell",
. , 179

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, , , -
, , ,
, .


,
.
, . , ,
.
2.17.4. / (Oscillator/Trend)

/.
/
. ,

.
, /,
:
- , , ;
- , ;
- , , , ,
;
- ;
- / - ,
/.
/ .
-, .
, . - ,
- .
"".
-, . - , , ,
. (
- RSI, Momentum, Stochastic)
.

-"buy", "sell" "", .
. ,
. ,

. ,
. 180

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
.
/ ().
, RSI
Stochastic 50, Momentum - 0.
, ,
.
, ,
, .
, ,
.
, ,
, .
, /.
,
( - 5,10 15
). ,
.

. ,

. ,

. ,
( 15-30 ),
"". /
. ,
, , ,
.
/ .
2.11
13:27:07

PRICE

GMT

USD/DEM
USD/CHF
USD/ JPY
GBP/USD
GBP/DEM
GBP/JPY
GBP/CHF
DEM/JPY
DEM/CHF

1.6404
1.4297
118.86
1.6553
2.7162
196.78
2.3663
72.45
0.8715

TREND

OSCILLATOR

TOTAL

FORCE

U/D

FORCE

GOAL

UP
0
0
UP
0
0
0
UP
0

38%
8%
15%
77%
38%
54%
15%
38%
0%

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

54%
65%
48%
49%
30%
41%
52%
52%
55%

1.6406
1.4301
118.85
1.6553
2.7151
196.70
2.3666

72.45
0.8716

RECOMMENDATI
ON
B/S
FORCE

BUY
0
0
BUY
0
0
0
BUY
0

38%
0%
0%
77%
0%
0%
0%
38%
0%

-
.
181

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

"TREND"
/ - .
"OSCILLATOR"
- ( ),
.
"RECOMMENDATION" - ("buy" "sell") , .
,
.
, .
/
:
- , , ;
- , , ;
- 80 95
;
- 55
75 ;
- () ( )
( , 10 20 ).
;
- ()
( )
.

/ - " ", " ", " ".
2.114

182

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

" ", ,
8 34.
, .
, ( ) .
2.115

" " ( ).
- ,
.
.
2.116

" " (
- ),
.
183

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. " " / , .
. " " (50). ,
.
,
USD/DEM.
2.117

"BUY", - "SELL".
/ ,
( 8), .
.
. ,
.
/ .

. .

USD/JPY.

184

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
2.118

USD/DEM
.
2.119

,
. .
- . - .

185

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
3.

, ,
" " .
, .
,
, .

.

.
,
( 80 = 8 / 1 0 * 100 %),
.
10 ( 80 10
) 50 ( 100 10 ),
,
.
. ,
,
.

( ),
, .
, ,
, -
, .
3.1.
.
1)
" " , .

.
.
, 20.000 USD.
50
% . .
, ,
.
.
20.000 100.000 USD.

.
.
100.000 USD.
,
30 5 .
186

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
,
.
2) .
:
- ();
- ();
- .

65 %. . :
= / ,
- ;
- .
, ,
. . :
= / - ( - ) / ,
- ;
- , ;
- , ;
- , .

. ,

. :
= / - (1 - ) ( / - ).
1.

, .
- ,
,
.
3)
.
, .
, .

187

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
3.2.

1) .
-
( ) (-).
, ,
.
, ,
.
-, , ,
,
. ,
, .
2) - (-).
- .
, , ,
. - .
.
3) -.
-, -, ,
, -, .
:
- 2
. -
;
- ,
. , 6-8
. - .
- .
( USD/DEM).
50.000 USD.
- 2 .
- 50.000 * 2 / 100 = 1.000 USD.
1.000.000 USD 1.5450.
USD - 100 DEM / 1.5450 = 65 USD.

-1.000 / 65 = 15.
- -1.5450 + 0.0015 =
1.5465.
, ,
.

188

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

3.3.

.
(
).
.
.

.

. . , ,
- . .

.
, "" . , ,

, . -
(, , ..); ; , .


.
,
, -.

3.3.1. ,
.
1)
.
2) :
- , ;
- , ;
- , .
3) .
4)
( ).
.
1)
.
2) :
189

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- ;
- . 3)
:
- ;
- ;
- .
.
( ):
- ;
- ;
- ;
- .
,
. ( )
, ,
"".
3.3.2.

, ,
(, )
, .
.
1 . 1.5500,
1.5510 10 (1.5510 - 1.5500).
1.5480,
20 (1.5480 - 1.5500).
1 .
1.5480, 2 . 1.5495
10 (1.5495 - 1.5500 + 1.5495 - 1.5480).
1.5490 ((1.5500 + 1.5480) / 2)
1.5510.
, ,
.
( ) .
- 100, 200
. , - -
, ,
.
.
, 1.5495, ,
.
1.5490, 10 (1.5490 1.5500).
190

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1.5480 2 (
) .
1.5495 2 , 30
(1.5495 - 1.5480 + 1.5495 - 1.5485).
20 (30 - 10), 10

.

, 10 .
:

- ;
- ;
- .

191

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
4.

. ,
. - , , -
.
, ,
. - , - .
. ,
.

, .
.
4.1.
,
, .
, ,
.
, .
,
, . ,
.
,
. -
.
,
, .
. ,
.
.
:
- -
, .
;
- - , ,
.
, ,
. : "
?". .
, - ,
, , , .
(
).
192

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
4.1

. ""
, .

4.2.
,
.
,
. ,

""- ""-. .
. , - ,
, .
:
- .
;
- ,
. .
, , -
(
). ,
.
. -
- ,

. ,
(
).
, , .
,
193

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, ... . , - ,
.
.
() .

. ,
.
, ,
. ,
, 4.1.
, - . ,
.
.

" ".
, "" , ,
.
, 4.2.
4.2

4.3.
, .
.
,
.
194

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
.
. , ,
. ,
. .
, ,
. , ,
. ,
( ).
, , . - , ,
. -
, .
, .
( -
) .
. 4.2 .
4.3

4.4.
,
-, . ,
:
- 100 % 85 ;
- 85 % 100 15 %
.
195

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- 85 .
100%-
85 , " ". -
, .
, :

- 100 % 85 ;
- 85 % 100 15 %
.
- 85
. 15 % , " ".
- , .
, , , ,
, .

. , :
-
() 85 .
, . 15 85%,
- 15 %;
- ()
85 .
;
- , ,
15 , () - ;
- - () 85 ,
() - 100 , - 15
.
, , -
85 , 15 %- . -
-, .
: " ?".
- .

.
(85%) ,
. ,
.
, , ,
.
. ,
, , .
,
"" .
196

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
.
, - .
.
, 80 % , - . ( 90 %) -
"" . , 70 % (80% * 90%)
. , . ""
50 %, . .

, ,
-, / .
- .
- "",
.
, "" ""
. ,
,
, "" - .
, , .
, "", . ,
, " ".
,
"" ,
.
.
""
, , 5
"". ,
, , .
,
, .
, ,
, .

197

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
4.1

- ,
-
, , ,

, ,

,
. -
. -"

",
, .
. -
,
,
-.
, .

()

- ,
,
.
-
,

.
.

-
,
,
. -
" ".
- ,
,
,
.

-
,
,
. -
,
. -
.

-
, ,
.
- .
- ,
" " (
).

, .
1) . , " ", - "" .
, -.
24
. , ,
. ""
.
2) (5-10
) . ""
,
. , , - ,
. ,
- . ,
, - .
,
"",
.
.
198

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
4.2

()

. , , .

- .

, , - ,
.
( ). ,

. , , .
"" (.. -
). , - .
.
3) ,
.
, .
, . ,
. ,
.
. , .

,
- .
.
4.3

4.1.
.
199

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
4.5.

,
:
- , , ,
. , , , ;
- , ;
- , , 300.000 ,
, 30.000 ;
- ,
.
, ,
. , , ,
. ,
- (
) (
). , "" -.
. ,
ADX.
(MACD, RSI .) .
.
:
" !"
4.6.

, .
. -
, .
, ,
, "
, ".
, , , "" - ,
.
?
.
, . ,
,
( ),
, .
.
( ), .

. , -
, , ,

.
200

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. . -.
, , ,
. , ,
" ". ,
,
(, ).
, , . , " " " ".

. ,
( ,
),

.
, .
, ,
.
. , .
? -
. , , ,
, . , , , .
,
( ) ( ).
.
-
. , ,
. ,
( ),
. .

. , , .
, ,
, . ,
. -
. ,
, .
- . ,
, . ,
.
.
.
? .
201

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, , .
.
, -
. ,
. ,
.
, , ,

.
- .
(, ) ,
. ,
,
, .
, .
, 80 %, ,
.
. , , ,
, . ,
. ,
- .
-
.
.
(, ).
, .
, .
, .

.

4.7. ( )
:
" ?"
. ,
"".
26 1992 . 08:26. -

, - ().
. 1987
. , 2.95
. 1992 , (
) ( ,
).
,
.
. , .
2.795 ,
2.78 .
202

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, . . .
, .
,
( ) , : " ". " .
, 6-8 . 64 45
! , , ,
. ,
. . ."*
, 17 . ,
" ", 2.71 ,
2.40 .
.
4.4

, . , .
.
. , , ,
, ,
.
.
, ,
.
, , ,
.
, , ,
, .
203

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
-.
1) . ,
. .
,
- ( )
, , .*
2) , . ,
, .
3) , .
4) , , .
5) . , -
.
6) .
,
. , ,
.
.
7) ,
, ,
.
8) , , ,
. .
9) , ,
, .
10) , ,
.
, .
. , , , , .
11) , ,
. . , , .
12) - , -
, - .

. ,
.

4.8.
.

? ,
.
* . : , .
-: , 1996.- .251.
204

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

,
"" 25 , .
- ,
, .
,
.
, ,
, , ,
.
75% , , .
50%, -
25%, - .

.
,
- .
75%.
, , ,
, 50%.
,
, .
.
.
( )
, .
, .
,
.
,
, .
/ /.
,
.
- .
-
,
. .
,
- .
.

205

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

4.9.
.
, ( ).
.
.
, ,
- , .
.
.
, , , , - -
. .
.
.
, .
, , , .
, - .
.
:
" , ,
."
- "",
.
.
- .
.
.
- , ,
. , ,
.
.
4.10. ( )
.
- - ( -
).

.
- .
.
(, , , , ..).
, , .
.
206

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. - .
.
, .
- .
( ).

207

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

5.

5.1.
, , , .
, ,
,
,
.
- USD/DEM
USD/CHF.
5.1

,
.

. , ,
,
. .
, , .
/, , -
.
.
, , ,
. -
DEM/CHF.
. ,
.
208

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
5.2

.

( ), - .
1 .
. ,
, high. , ( )
.
- .

5.2.
100 . ,
.
.
. ,


.
.

. , , - . -
, "".
, ,
-. ,

.
209

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
5.3

USD/DEM,
DEM/USD .
- -
.
,
. , "" (
), "" -
, .

5.3.
,
, .
,
. ,
"" ,
.

0.3 % 15 . 40 60
.
.

210

NAIMAN

NAIMAN
5.4

1. .
.
,
, ,
.
,
. "" ""
, , , , , , ( ).
.
() ().
,

. , ,
,
- -. , () "" ().
2. . .
- , ,
. ,
,
.
;
211

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

2. ,
0.25%, ,

. ,
.
1.6200 .
3. 1.6300.
-
1.6400. , .
4. - 1.6440.
.
5. 1.6360, 1.6380.
, 1.6400 .
-
, - .
6. , .
1.6400.

.
5.6

1.
GBP/USD 1.6300. ,

.
2. "" . .
3. . ,
.
.
4. . .
, 213

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

- , ;
- , ,
, ,
.
3. . , , . , ,
. - . ( 5 )
, .
4. / . . .
/ , /
. .
5. . , . .
"" "".
,
. - , 21 8-
.
6. .
.
,
12- .
. ,
, ""
"" .
.
5.5

1. -
. GBP/USD 1.6180 1.6200.
212

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

.
, .
, .
1.6400 - . ,
1.6400,
.
5. ,
, . "" .
.
.
6. , (
) .
5.7

1.
.
2. ,
, , .
- .
1.6200 ,
3. 1.6120 1.6140.
.
4. 1.6120. 1.6005,
1.6030.
.
5. 1.6120. ,
. ""
. .
6. "" . ,
.

214

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

:
- "" 10-15 ;
- ""
10-15 ;
- "" , -
;
- "" , -
;
-
- 2- .

.

215

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, . ,
. - , ,
.
"" .
. ,
, , .
, :
- ,
.
, , ,
. ,
"" ,
, - .
,
"" ,
.
- ( "") (""),
( "").
,
. -
.

216

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

ASK

( - )
.
BEAR MARKET - bearish
. , , ""
, , "".
BID
( - )
.
BROKER
, , ( )
.
BULL MARKET - bullish
. , , "" ,
, "".
CREDIT LINE
GEARING.
DEALER
, , . ,
, .
DOWNTREND
,
, .
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET - FOREX

, .
FX ( 90 % ) .
FORWARD CONTRACT

, ,
. -:
1-2-3 ; 1-2 ; 18 24 .
217

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

HIGH
, .
GEARING ( FX-line)
"", . "" 20-50 .
"" 20 100.
IMM
(IMM).

.
INTERVENTION

.
LIQUID MARKET
, .
, , .
LONG
,
. "" , .
LOW
, .
MARGIN
,
.
MARGIN CALL
,

.
OFFER
"ASK".
OFFSET
. ,
, - , .
OPEN INTEREST
, . Open interest
, .
218

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

OVERBOUGHT
, ,
, . -
.
OVERSOLD
"overbought", ,
, , . - .
PIP
, , (point).
TICK.
PAPER TRADING
, .
POSITION
, , .
QUOTATION
bid ask.
RALLY
.
RESISTANCE
, .
SHORT
, .
, "" .
OVERNIGHT (/NEXT)
Overnight - , spot, a
.
SPREAD
( bid ask).
SPOT CONTRACT
,
. SPOT FX
( , 2
).
SPOT RATE
spot
.
219

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

SQUARE
, , ,
. - "".
STOP ORDERS
, market order,
. (stop
loss) (stop profit).
SUPPORT
, .
SWAP
, ,
,

. -
.
TICK
. ,
point.
TICK VOLUME
.
TRADER
, , .
.
TRADING RANGE
.
TECHNICAL TERMS

BAR CHART
. min
.
(bar), .
, .
, - .
BLOW - OFFS
(top) (bottom). Blow-offs . , ,
. -
blow-offs.

220

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

BREAKOUT
.
CONFIRMATION
, .
CONSOLIDATION
, congestion zone. Consolidation ,
.
CONGESTION ZONE OR BAND
.
CONTINUATION PATTERNS
, , flag.
CROSSOVER
(bullish crossover)
(bearish crossover) . , 5-
(moving average) 13- - bearish crossover.
DIVERGENCE
. ,
. , ,
- , divergence ( convergence) bearish.
, - ,
divergence bullish.
DOUBLE BOTTOM
W, ( ) .
DOUBLE TOP
,
( ) .
ELLIOTTWAVE
, .
, 5 ,
, 3 - .
FIBONACCI
, , . , 38%, 50%, 62%.
FLAG OR PENNANT
, ,
consolidation. - continuation patterns.

221

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

FILLING IN THE GAP

gap ,
gap.
GAP
, high low
, .
HISTORICAL VOLATILITY
,
. , .
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
.
INTRA-DAY
, , . , 60-
intra-day . ,
.
MOMENTUM
. .
NECKLINE
- . , Head & Shoulders
H&S. H&S
, - bearish, H&S
, -bullish.
OSCILLATOR
Momentum, RSI, Stochastic,
( 0 100%). Oscillator overbought/oversold,
divergence ,
.
PROTECTIVE STOP
, .
stop ,
.
RALLY
.
REACTION
.
RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)
RSI
.
222

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

RESISTANCE LEVEL

, .
RETRACEMENT

, . retracement - 38%, 50%, 62%.

REVERSAL SESSION
( )
( ) .
SELLING CLIMAX
.
- selling climax.
SELL/OFF
.
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
,
. , .
STOCHASTIC
, , . % () %D ().
SUPPORT LEVEL
, . .
TIME FILTER

, , .
TRADING RANGE

.
TREND
.
.
TREND REVERSALS
. .
- trend change indicator. ,
. ,
.
223

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

TRENDLINE
, .
, .
. , .
UPTREND
.
V BOTTOM OR TOP
, , V, V .
VOLUME
.

(Assets)
,
.
(Stock)
, , .
, , (Owners' Equity)

,
-
( ). . .
(Annuity)
,
.
(Balance Sheet)
, ,
.
(Book Value)
, .
() (Accounting Earnings)
,
- Generally
Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).

224

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

(Warrant)
, .
.
(Aftertax Value)
,
.
(Over-the-Counter Market, OTC)
, , ,
.
(Sales, Revenue)
.
(Net Sales)
,
, , , , ..
( ).
( ) (Cash How)
.
(Deflation)
() . . .
(Yield)
,
, .
(Economic Life)
, , ,

.
, (Cost)
, .
(Shareholders' Equity)
.
(Consumer Price Index)
,
,
; 225

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

(Inflation)
.
(Security and Exchange
Commission, SEC)
,
.
(Convertible Security)
: ,
,
.
(Creditworthiness)

.
(Cumulative Preferred Stock)
, , ,

,
.
(Coupon Rate)

,
.
"" (Junk Bond)
, ,
.
/ (Price-to-Earnings Ratio, P/E)
,
12 ; ,
$ 1 .
, (Par Value)
, , . -
.
(Bond)
, , ; .
(Common Stock, Common Shares) ,
,
, ,
.
226

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

(Option)
,
, , , ,
.
( ,
) (Income Statement, Operating Statement, Profit and Loss Statement)
, (),
, .
(Purchasing Power Parity)
,
.
(Portfolio)
,
.
(Earnings, Income, Net Income, Profit, Net Profit)
,
,
.
(Preferred Stock)
, ,
.
"" (Spot Market)
,
; .
( ) (Market Value) ;
, ,
, .
(Owners' Equity, Net Worth, Shareholders' Equity)
( , ) ,
.

().
(Spread)
, ,
, .
.
(Dividend Yield)
,
; 227

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

, ,
. . .
(Hedge)
,
.

228

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. , "" .

229

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

230

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

231

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. , "" .

232

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

233

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

. , .
234

NAIMAN

NAIMAN

1. .
2. , - . .
3. (1945-1990). Bee
4. .
5. : , .
.
6. ( ).
7. . ..
8. .
9. . ..
10. Beyond Candlesticks, Steve Nison
11. Computer Analysis of the Futures Market, LeBeau & Lucas
12. Design, Testing and Optimization of Trading Systems, Robert Pardo
13. Elliott Wave as Applied to Foreign Exchange Markets, Robert Balan
14. Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Colby & Meyers
15. Fibonacci for Traders, Robert Fischer
16. Fractal Market Analysis, Edgar Peters
17. Futures Fundamental Analysis, Jack Schwager
18. How to Make Profits in Commodities, W.D.Gann
19. Intennarket Technical Analysis, John J. Murphy
20. International Financial Markets, J.Orlin Grabbe
21. Market Momentum, Martin Pring
22. Mathematics of Technical Analysis, Clifford Sherry
23. MESA & Market Cycles, John Ehlers
24. Momentum, Direction and Divergence, William Blau
25. New Market Wizards, Jack Schwager
26. Options as a Strategic Investment, L.McMillan
27. Point & Figure Charting, Carroll Aby
28. Portfolio Managment Formulas, Ralph Vince
29. Psihology of Technical Analysis, Tony Plummer
30. Quantitative Trading and Money Managment, Fred Gehm
31. Reminescences of a Stock Operator
32. Technical Analysis Explained, Martin Pring
33. Technical Analysis from A to Z, Steven Achelis
34. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Edwards & Magee
35. Technical Analysis of the Futures Market, John J.Murphy
36. The Bond Market, Christina Ray
37. The Elements of Successful Trading, Robert Rotella
38. Trading Currency Cross-Rates, Klopfenstein & Stein
39. Trading for a Living, Alexander Elder
40. Trading in the Global Currency Markets, Cornelius Luca
41. Trading on the Edge, Ed.Dr. G.DeboeckTrading the Fundamentals, Nemiera &
G.Zukowski
235

. .
. .

70x108 1/16. . . 1. "".

. . . 20,65. . -. . 21,2. 3000 . . 9-432
"-"
, . 16.
Email: vira@public.ua.net

"" , .
, 17-21.

www.xerurg.ru