Por qu delinquen las personas?

Por/By: Roberto Fernndez Medina Universidad de Sonora

Se ha sealado en nuestro pas que la falta o prdida de valores ticos en la familia, su desintegracin y violencia a su interior, la pobreza, el desempleo, la drogadiccin, la marginacin, la discriminacin, etc., constituyen las causas de la delincuencia. Pero hasta ahora no se ha emprendido ningn estudio longitudinal que permita determinar estadsticamente qu factores especficos estn favoreciendo su desarrollo y cmo podra inhibirse su aparicin. Otros pases han desarrollando proyectos ambiciosos, como las "Encuestas Longitudinales". Estas consisten en tomar una muestra de un grupo de nios menores de 10 aos en alguna ciudad y seguirlos hasta la edad adulta, para identificar quines se convierten en delincuentes y qu factores los distinguen de aquellos que no lo hacen. Un objetivo central es precisar qu factores especficos predicen el desarrollo del crimen en la infancia. Por ejemplo, en la Encuesta de Inglaterra, 411 nios de entre 8 y 10 aos registrados en la primaria, fueron contactados entre 1961 y 1962 en la zona urbana de Londres; llenaron cuestionarios y fueron examinados a la edad de 8, 10 y 14 aos; y luego fueron encuestados a la edad de 16, 18, 21, 25 y 32 aos. Segn el director del programa, en todas las entrevistas fue posible contactar a casi toda la muestra (95%). Tambin se encuestaron a los padres al menos una vez al ao desde los 8 hasta los 15 aos de edad y a los maestros de los nios a la edad de 8, 10, 12 y 14 aos. Durante el estudio se buscaron, en la oficina central de registros criminales de Londres, antecedentes penales de los integrantes de la muestra, as como de sus padres, hermanos, esposas, concubinas o pareja. Al final, el 20% (1 de cada 5) de los individuos registraron antecedentes penales por delincuencia juvenil, y un tercio (153 o 37%) antecedentes penales de adultos hasta la edad de 32 aos. Segn al anlisis de regresin, los ms importantes pronosticadores (predictors) de delincuencia a la edad de 8 y 10 aos, se ubicaron en seis categoras. 1) Comportamiento antisocial del nio, que incluye conflictividad (ser conflictivo), deshonestidad y agresividad. 2) Hiperactividad, impulsividad y dficit de atencin (pobre concentracin, impaciencia, atrevimiento e impulsividad psicomotriz). 3) Baja inteligencia y pobre desempeo acadmico. 4) Familiares delincuentes (padres convictos, hermanos mayores convictos y hermanos con problemas de conducta). 5) Pobreza familiar (bajo ingreso, numerosa y descuidada casa-habitacin). 6) Una pobre tcnica de los padres para criar al nio (severa y autoritaria disciplina, pobre supervisin de las actividades del nio, conflicto entre los padres y separacin de estos con el nio). Esta categorizacin result ser el ms importante pronosticador de delincuencia a la edad de 8 y 10 aos. Los investigadores concluyeron que dicho estudio muestra en qu medida la delincuencia juvenil puede ser pronosticada en la infancia, a diferencia de previos estudios los cuales no medan anticipadamente una amplia gama de conceptos tericos sobre la delincuencia, por lo que no podan mostrar de manera efectiva qu variables la pronosticaran independientemente de otras o de su relativa importancia. Se encontr que la presencia de los factores adversos en la familia duplicaba el riesgo de que un nio llegara a convertirse en delincuente juvenil. El estudio provee informacin detallada sobre carreras criminales y codelincuencia, y en qu medida la delincuencia est concentrada en ciertas personas y familias. Se hizo hincapi en que una larga proporcin del problema de la criminalidad es atribuible a una pequeo nmero de personas y familias, identificables; siendo esto una excelente noticia para la prevencin y tratamiento. El estudio de Londres provee quiz la ms detallada informacin cuantitativa en el Reino Unido sobre los factores que influencian el desistimiento de un individuo a continuar una carrera criminal; por ejemplo, el contraer matrimonio o unirse en pareja con una buena mujer. Se seal que la mayor implicacin del estudio para la elaboracin de polticas de prevencin es que, para reducir la delincuencia se requieren experimentos en individuos a edad prematura (niez) para enfrentar cuatro importantes pronosticadores causales y modificables: pobre desempeo escolar, pobre tcnica en los padres para criar a los hijos, impulsividad y pobreza. Algunos resultados esperanzadores de experimentos de prevencin en menor escala realizados en Inglaterra, EU y Canad sugieren que, mejorando los primeros tres de estos factores, es posible reducir el desarrollo de conductas criminales.

En Mxico resulta indispensable que se usen experimentos cientficos de este tipo, en vez de estar pensando solo en reprimir la delincuencia de menores y de jvenes y en aumentar las penas; conocer la naturaleza del problema con base en informacin confiable. Todo con el fin de establecer objetivos especficos de prevencin y destinar los esfuerzos a las reas ms prioritarias. La prevencin del delito debe ser cuidadosamente enfocada y evaluada adems de especfica en su orientacin. Los estudios longitudinales ciertamente son muy costosos y Mxico es un pas en vas de desarrollo. Sin embargo, con 4 millones de dlares - como los que cobrar Gulliani slo por su asesora en el DF podran costearse varios estudios longitudinales durante varias dcadas. Los programas de alivio a la pobreza, generacin de empleos y desarrollo econmico no traern por aadidura la disminucin de la delincuencia. A final, cuesta mucho ms caro al gobierno el ser reactivo, tener que estar procesando, recluyendo y fabricando cada vez ms a miles de delincuentes en todo el pas. El gobierno est obligado a promover la investigacin cientfica en ste, que es uno de los problemas sociales ms dramticos y sentidos de los mexicanos en los ltimos tiempos. roberfm@hotmail.com Abogado por Unison, Maestro en Criminologa por Universidad de Cambridge, Inglaterra. Portada What causes people to become delinquents? It has been pointed out that in our country lack of ethical values in the family or the loss of those values, disintegration and violence within the family, poverty, unemployment, drug addiction, exclusion from society, discrimination, etc., are the main causes of crime. Yet, so far there has not been any longitudinal survey conducted aimed at determining -according to statistics- what definite causes are promoting the growth of crime and how its appearance could be suppressed. Other countries have developed ambitious projects, such as the "Longitudinal Surveys". These surveys consist of taking a sample group, in any given city, of children under the age of 10 and have a follow-up until they reach adulthood to be able to identify those who become criminals or felons and what factors make the difference with those who do not. One essential objective is to establish what specific factors might predict the development of crime during childhood. For example, in England's Longitudinal Survey, 411 children between the ages of 8 and 10 enrolled in an elementary school were contacted between 1961 and 1962 in the London urban area. They filled in questionnaires and were tested at the ages of 8, 10 and 14; and were later polled again at the ages of 16, 18, 21, 25 and 32. According to the program's director, during all the interviews, it was possible to contact almost all of the sample group (95%). The parents were also polled at least once a year when their children were between the ages of 8 and 15; their teachers were also polled when the children were 8, 10, 12 and 14. During the survey, criminal records of the participants in the sample were searched at the central office of criminal records, as well as for their parents, siblings, wives, concubines, or partners. At the end, 20% (1 in 5) of the subjects had juvenile delinquency records, a third (153 of 37%) had criminal records when of age and up to the age of 32. According to the regression analysis, the most important predictors of delinquency at the ages of 8 and 19, were placed in six categories. 1) Antisocial behavior of the child, which includes a controversial nature (conflictive), dishonesty, and aggressiveness. 2) Hyperactivity, impulsiveness, and attention deficit (poor concentration, impatience, daring, and psychomotor impulsivity). 3) Low intelligence and poor academic performance. 4) Criminal relatives (convicted parents, older convicted siblings, and siblings with behavior problems). 5) Family poverty (low income, large families, and an unkept household). 6) Inefficient ways of raising a child (severe and authoritarian discipline, very little supervision of the child's activities, conflict between the parents and parental separation from the child). This categorization became the most important predictor of delinquency at the ages of 8 and 10. Researchers concluded that the mentioned survey shows the measure in which juvenile delinquency can be predicted since

childhood, in contrast with previous studies that did not measure beforehand a comprehensive range of theoretic concepts on delinquency; consequently, they could not effectively prove which variables would predict it independently of others or of their relative importance. It was found that the presence of adverse factors in the family doubled the risk that the child becoming a juvenile felon. The study provided detailed information on criminal careers and co-delinquency, and up to what degree transgression to the law is concentrated in certain individuals and families. It was stressed that a great part of the problem of criminality can be attributed to a small number of identifiable people and families. This being excellent news for prevention and treatment. The London study perhaps provides the most detailed quantitative data in the United Kingdom on the factors that influence a subject to give up on his criminal career; for example, getting married or living with a good woman. It was pointed out that the main implication of the study for elaboration of prevention policies is that, to reduce crime, it is necessary to carry on experiments on very young subjects (childhood) in order to be able to face four important causal and modifiable predictors: poor school performance, parents' deficiency in raising their children, impulsivity, and poverty. Some encouraging results from experiments on prevention on a lower scale made in England, the United States, and Canada suggest that by improving the first three factors, it is possible to reduce the development of criminal behaviors. In Mexico it is essential to use these kinds of scientific experiments, instead of just focusing on repressing crime in youngsters and those under age and in increasing the penalties; thus providing knowledge of the nature of the problem based on reliable data. All with the purpose of setting specific objectives of prevention and devoting efforts to priority areas. The prevention of crime must be carefully focused and evaluated, besides being specifically orientated. Longitudinal studies are certainly very expensive, and Mexico is a developing country. However, four million dollars -such as what Mr. Gulliani will charge Mexico City for his counseling- could pay for several longitudinal studies for several decades. Programs to relieve poverty, to generate jobs, and of economic development will not automatically generate a reduction in crime. In the end, it is much more expensive for the government to react, to have to process, to put in jail, and to produce the thousands of felons all over the country. The government is obliged to promote scientific investigation in this field, one of the most dramatic and tough problems Mexicans have recently faced.