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:
1. ( )
2. ( )
3. ( )
,
:
( multiplier )
(guideline company)
(by analogy)
(comparable) ( ).
(relative)
(market)
sales comparison
, ?
.. ?
1.5 . 10
.? ?
4 ?
?
? ?
? ?
(?)
(
)
P/S P/E
1
(S), . .
100
100
200
100
200
100
(E), . .
10
10
20
10
20
10
- , .
10
20
10
10
10
20
, .
.
100
100
200
100
200
100
1 , .
10
20
10
20
P/S
P/
10
10
10
10
10
10
- Comverse Technology Inc.
Thompson Watch, 19 2003 .
P/E
P/BV
Panamsat Corp.
21.45
0.73
Acterna Corp.
-0.01
-0.01
-6.87
1.39
13.08
1.02
GN Store Nord
-1.58
1.5
22.01
0.75
ZTE Corp.
20.05
2.94
9.85
1.05
20.53
1.84
10.95
1.25
? ?
?
?
?
-
?
?
?
?
?
. 30
,
, , -
(intrinsic)
.
,
:
100% ?
()
(,
(EV)
EV = + D - Cash = (MC + D) - Cash = MC + (D - Cash) = MV + Net Debt,
D ,
Cash ,
ND .
( )
(excess cash),
,
,
, (
)
( )
,
? ()
(EV)
, -
:
PA EVA EV P ( . 51 )
100% EBITDA :
MC = (EV/EBITDAA) EBITDA - ND
100% ?
()
100%
P/E/g,
( . 43 )
, ,
, .
?
?
( ?)
, 100%
,
, ,
.
, , ,
:
?
?
? ()
1.
2.
1998-2003 .
(>50%)
(10-50%)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
40.7%
43.5%
49.1%
58.0%
59.8%
63.0%
39.5%
33.0%
53.8%
35.2%
39.2%
21.1%
: Mergerstat
P/E
1998-2003 .
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
19.7
19.8
19.4
21.7
25.0
24.0
21.7
18.0
16.7
19.7
21.2
22.0
22.0
15.5
17.5
17.0
16.0
18.4
16.0
15.3
16.6
19.4
: Mergerstat
-12%
-11%
20%
19%
32%
33%
15%
11%
8%
16%
8%
() ?
,
,
, , :
(replacement
cost)
, , ,
(buy vs. build approach)
P/BV
EV/
/E
EV/
(
)
,
, :
,
.
: ,
,
.
: P/S
EV/S , P/S. /S:
/S:
, :
E = S E/S, P/S = (P/E) x (E/S),
E/S
P/S P/E:
P/S
= E/S
P/E
P / BV
= ROE
P/E
: P/
/ , /S:
.
P .. P/(adjusted E)
(normalized) (maintainable)
/ .
/?
P/E:
?
: EV/EBITDA
EBITDA ,
, EBITDA
:
15%
EBITDA
NB:
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
353
412
471
529
588
647
706
765
824
53
62
71
79
88
97
106
115
124
20%
25%
30%
35%
375
75
400
100
429
129
462
162
438
88
467
117
500
150
538
188
500
100
533
133
571
171
615
215
563
113
600
150
643
193
692
242
625
125
667
167
714
214
769
269
688
138
733
183
786
236
846
296
750
150
800
200
857
257
923
323
813
163
867
217
929
279
1,000
350
875
175
933
233
1,000
300
1,077
377
40%
500
583
667
750
833
917
1,000
1,083
1,167
. , EBITDA 100 . .
,
200
233
267
300
333
367
400
433
467
P/Sales margin
EV/Sales margin
EV/Operating margin:
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT(1-t) EV/NOPLAT (
; NOPLAT goodwill)
EV/EBIAT EV/NOPAT (
)
, ,
CE E (
)
FOCF E
FCFF FOCF ,
( vs. )
FCFF
, ()
FCFE ,
, FCFE ,
P/DIV
,
:
EV/BV EV/BVA
P/BV P/BVE
EV/PP&E
P/NAV
NB: EV/BV !
BV=BVE+BVD-Cash!
:
/BV ,
,
P/NAV
AFI Development
IPO/SPO*
04.08.2008
.
2,0
0,6
2007
IPO/SPO*
1,6
1,7
2007
PIK
1,3
0,9
2007
0,3
2006
0,5
2006
0,4
2006
1,1
2007
Mirland
Development
RGI International
LSR
1,6
1,2
2,1
1,7
. 97
EV/Capacity
EV/
EV/Production
EV/
(,
)
(-,
,
)
(, ); ,
(-,
)
()
( )
P/E:
12 (.. trailing)
3-5 ( )
()
:
,
( Pt/E(t+n))
(P/E)/g
, ,
( MC0+NDt)
, ,
: (
MCt+NDt)
, :
( )
( ; )
(corporate governance)
(, ,
, , )
P/E,
r = r f + ( rm r f ) + rc
rc
1 b
P/E =
rg
:
P/E
(rf)
(rm-rf)
(g)
/
8%
3%
5%
3%
50%
7.1
16%
8%
7%
3%
50%
4.2
: Damodaran
P/E 2007 .
()
Shanghai Comp
Straits Times
Sensex
RTS
TWSE
Kuala Lumpur
Hang Seng
Bovespa
Kospi
FTSE/JSE Top 40
S&P/ASX 200
IBEX 35
Mexican Bolsa
FTSE 100
S&P/TSX
Swiss Maket
S&P 500
OMS 30
DAX
CAC-40
Nikkei 225
MIB 30
/E
45,5
12,7
27,6
13,4
19,0
15,6
18,0
14,9
15,0
12,7
15,2
12,3
15,8
12,3
19,0
13,9
18,4
11,8
13,5
13,4
29,3
14,2
11,5%
8,9%
8,9%
7,8%
6,9%
6,7%
6,2%
5,4%
5,2%
5,1%
4,3%
3,8%
3,7%
3,2%
2,9%
2,8%
2,8%
2,6%
2,5%
2,1%
1,9%
1,9%
. 151
P/E
1998-2003 .
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
17.2
30.9
18.6
7.8
33.4
20.9
P/E
2003 .
31.0
47.8
38.2
20.9
31.7
14.8
24.8
22.8
22.3
22.1
24.5
23.8
23.6
24.4
24.3
21.8
21.8
22.1
20.1
25.3
36.5
18.9
27.9
17.2
10.0
22.8
21.0
14.7
13.6
17.4
22.4
24.4
17.2
26
19.4
25.0
17.9
21.1
13.7
13.6
11.6
26.1
28.1
23.3
23.9
21.7
16.0
26.7
22.8
20.8
18.2
22.8
12.8
13.2
25.1
24.3
23.8
21.6
22.9
23.5
10
15
20
25
30
: Mergerstat
: Mergerstat
2003 .
P/E
, ,
,
,
(Dow Jones,
S&P500, NIKKEI, PTC, S&P ..)
/ t1 // t1 = / t2 // t2
:
/ t2 = / t1 (/ t1 // t2)
,
:
( ?)
:
,
,
-
, 19261994 .
:
EV
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
*, %
, .
.
14 200
6,31
3 500
8,39
1 800
9,13
1 170
9,74
730
10,80
480
10,75
290
11,22
190
12,14
100
13,13
40
17,28
: Ibbotson Associates
C :
(: ,
- , . 168 )
(, /S=+(E/S) /BV=+ROE )
P=E/(r-g)
, .
DCF.
P/S
100.0%
/ (E/S), %
90.0%
80.0%
($1,180 .)
70.0%
($1,987 .)
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
/ (P/S )
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
P/BV,
/S
ROE, E/S
( )
P/E
P/E
P/E
P/BV
P/BV
P/BV
P/S
P/S
P/S
()
P/E, DIV/P, Q /
1929-1932 :
P/E Q
1921
1949
1982
P/E
7,4
5,8
7,8
0,28
0,29
0,27
()
/E
1980-2000
: [Shiller 200, p. 5]
()
/E 1881-2001
: [Shiller 200, p. 5]
()
P/E 1998
P/E
P/E
1997
20,0
1999
-6,0
1997
28,6
1998
16,5
1997
38,7
1998
7,2
1994
54,9
1998
5,8
1997
16,2
1998
4,0
1997
1998
5,4
1997
59,5
1998
()
19552000
:
60% 1990
120% 1996
(
)
: [Hobjin,
Jovanovich 2000]
()
Q 19002009 .
: [Mihaljevic 2010]
()
DJIA 19002008
: http://observationsnotes.blogspot.com
()
(total present value)
: [Sigel 2003 ]
P/E 15, P/BV 1,5 P/EP/BV 22,5
:
P/E
(DIV/P+g)/(P/E): 0,7,
3
5
7
10
15
(DIV/V+g)/(/E)
0,7
2
7,1
2,5
10,0
3,5
14,3
5,0
21,4
7,5
3
1,7
2,3
3,3
5,0
.
100 . 155,7,
99, 30,
5,9. 5
- : 40-50%
,
.
,
.
, , 1 2008 ,
Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd
Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd
, .
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
, . ,
. .
.
1,417,800
7,915
110,352
20,101
76,195
10,803
77,400
278
9,826
367
1,353
1,213
,
. .
32.64
1.50
24.40
3.20
2.74
, .
.
908,800
7,082
47,997
4,666
111,334
10,641
2,300,000
4,490
255,320
65,420
58,840
, .
.
267,100
1,294
26,678
4,100
15,120
3,091
,
. .
275,700
3,653
358
20
48,274
,
. .
411,200
2,400
38,157
2,495
53,002
8,815
, .
.
45,200
265
17,196
1,949
5,062
1,579
:
/
69.2
83,956
4.9
51,711
8.9
78,642
25,0%
25,0%
25,0%
,
, . .
, %
, %
, %
, . .
25,0%
58 884
57,372
99,99%
20%
33%
45,979
, . .
/
2.0
21,225
:
?
Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd
P/S
1.62
0.57
2.31
3.25
0.77
1.71
1.57
1.97
P/E
29.72
16.15
25.98
178.26
43.49
58.72
33.06
69.21
P/BVA
2.53
0.63
5.32
14.02
0.53
4.61
2.83
4.86
P/BVE
5.59
1.87
6.69
26.22
1.11
8.30
4.72
8.92
ROE
19%
12%
26%
15%
3%
14%
14%
13%
NI margin
5.5%
3.5%
8.9%
1.8%
1.8%
2.9%
4.7%
2.8%
, Jones Soda (
)
, ,
P/S P/BVA EV/S EV/BVA
Eldorado , ,
, . , P/E EV/BVA
:
?
EV/S
Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd
P/S
EV/S
18,430
19,761
EV/BVA
1.82
1.03
2.32
3.26
1.41
1.96
1.85
2.83
1.15
5.33
14.02
0.96
4.86
3.10
EV/BVA
P/BVA
49,020
50,247
:
?
Cott Corp
. ,
,
.
. .
, ,
, , ,
Jones Soda Co
.
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd
,
.
. ,
,
C , Eldorado
... ?
:
?
" "
, . .
2.0
69.2
4.9
8.9
21,225
83,956
51,711
78,642
0.57
16.15
0.63
1.87
6,128
19,591
6,746
5,783
, . .
(5.8-6.7 . .)
7
P/E ,
Eldorado. ?
(US$)
(US$)
100
1150
1150
(%)
2005
Dubai Ports
International
(DPI)
2003
APM
Terminals
Quingdao
Qianwan
Container
Terminal
20
60
2003
Cosco Pacific
Shanghai Pudong
International
Terminals
20
2003
Cosco Pacific
Quingdao
Qianwan Terminal
2003
Cosco Pacific
2003
2003
CSX Corporation
(. TEU)
TEU
(US$)
1,400
821
300
P&O Ports
1,850
162
45.8
229
2,300
100
20
14.8
74
600
123
Yantian
International
Container
Terminal, Phase III
4.45
16.7
375.3
2,400
156
P&O Ports
Mundra Container
Terminal
100
195
195
P&O Ports
Adani Group ,
1,300
150
P&O Ports
Casco / Canadian
Stevedoring
100
75
75
300
250
: ()
(%)
(US$)
(US$)
(. TEU)
2003
P&O Ports /
CMA CGM
Egis Ports
80
56.7
70.86
P&O
Ports (50%) CMA CGM (50%)
2003
SSA Marine
51
120
245
,
Manzanillo
( 0.9 TEU 2005.), -
-
2002
Malaysia
Mining
Corporation
Port of Tanjung
Pelepas
50.1
424
848
2002
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
HMM Korean
Terminals
100
215
2001
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
ICTSI International
Port Holdings
100
2001
PSA
Corporation
2000
Eurokai
(Contship
Italia)
2000
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
TEU
(US$)
1,100
64
500
240
2,050
414
215
Hyundai Busan
Container, Hyundai Gamman Container Hyundai
Kwangyang Container
1,950
110
400
400
,
, , ,
, ,
Tanzania International Container Terminal
1,500
267
70
420
600
70% .
22 , 6
Antwerp/Zeebrugge
3,700
162
Terminal Darsena
Toscana
50
18
CLP
300
60
Westport, Klang
30
105
480
Biobest
820
589
: ()
2000
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
2000
(%)
(US$)
(US$)
(. TEU)
Koja Container
Terminal
49
147
300
,
Humpuss Group
TCB/3i
TCB
100
198
198
1999
Eurokai
Contship Italia
66
135
1999
P&O Ports
ITO
95
1999
P&O Ports
Tanjung Perak
1999
Urbaser/Dra
gados
1999
1999
TEU
(US$)
394
761
1,850
107
205
Contship Italia,
Medcenter Container Terminal
60%
La Spezia
3,150
65
82
87
-
17
1,250
70
49
174
355
732
485
Maritima Valencia
100
134
134
825
162
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
ECT
50
357
714
4,700
152
Hutchison
Port
Holdings
JICT
51
229
470
1,420
331
- 252 USD/TEU
- 87%
:
:
( , ,
)
, ,
,
(%)
(US$)
(US$)
(. TEU)
TEU
(US$)
2003
APM
Terminals
Quingdao
Qianwan
Container
Terminal
20
60
300
P&O Ports
1,850
162
2003
Cosco Pacific
Shanghai Pudong
International
Terminals
20
45.8
229
2,300
100
2003
Cosco Pacific
Quingdao
Qianwan Terminal
20
14.8
74
600
123
2003
Cosco Pacific
Yantian
International
Container
Terminal, Phase III
4.45
16.7
375.3
2,400
156
2003
P&O Ports
Mundra Container
Terminal
100
195
195
P&O Ports
Adani Group ,
1,300
150
2003
P&O Ports /
CMA CGM
Egis Ports
80
56.7
70.86
P&O
Ports (50%) CMA CGM (50%)
1,100
64
2002
Hutchison
Port Holdings
HMM Korean
Terminals
100
215
215
Hyundai Busan
Container, Hyundai Gamman Container Hyundai
Kwangyang Container
1,950
110
2001
Hutchison
Port Holdings
ICTSI International
Port Holdings
100
400
400
,
, , ,
, ,
Tanzania International Container Terminal
1,500
267
:
()
(
)
2000
Eurokai
(Contship
Italia)
2000
1999
(%)
(US$)
(US$)
Terminal Darsena
Toscana
50
18
TCB/3i
TCB
100
198
198
Hutchison
Port Holdings
JICT
51
229
470
**
(. TEU)
CLP
- 22 11
252 148 USD/TEU
87% 56%
TEU
(US$)
300
60
1,850
107
1,420
331
:
156 USD/TEU
104 USD/TEU
:
135 USD/TEU
29 USD/TEU
, ,
.
: vs.
:
175 USD/TEU
81 USD/TEU
:
77 USD/TEU
26 USD/TEU
56% 47% 34%
:
:
252 77 USD/TEU
( 87% 34%)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
()
P0/E0 vs. P0/E0+n
FCF 0, .
g 1-5
g 6+
DCF, .
P/FCF1
P/FCF6
1
5%
5%
6.67
6.67
1
20%
5%
9.86
5.56
5.22
13.00
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
. 20%
P0/E0
P0/E0+n
[0,n]
P0/E0+n
t
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
P1/E1
PA/P=40/5=8
P1/E4
PA/P=40/20=2
DCF
PA/P=3
P0/Et
-
,
:
P0/Et
g ROE b
ROE
4%
6%
8%
10%
15%
20%
(b), %
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
0%
4%
8%
11%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
. g=ROEb
1 (1), .
1 (1), .
(ROE), %
(b), %
5 (5), .
5 (5), .
:
P1/E1
P1/E5
P5/E5
12
12
100
100
12%
12%
20%
80%
13.2
17.3
110.0
144.3
. ,
r=ROE
8.3
7.6
8.3
8.3
5.8
8.3
()
(P/E)/g
rA, rA=r
, (/)/g =
(/)/g
P = PA
FCF 0, .
r
g 1+
DCF, .
P/E/g, .
E g
EA g A
1
1
20%
5%
6.67
2
1
20%
10%
10.00
2
(P/E)/g
!
(P/E)/g ,