Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 66

-

:
1. ( )
2. ( )
3. ( )


,
:

( multiplier )

(guideline company)

(by analogy)

(comparable) ( ).

(relative)

(market)

sales comparison

, ?

.. ?
1.5 . 10
.? ?

4 ?
?

? ?


? ?

(?)

(
)

P/S P/E
1

(S), . .

100

100

200

100

200

100

(E), . .

10

10

20

10

20

10

- , .

10

20

10

10

10

20

, .
.

100

100

200

100

200

100

1 , .

10

20

10

20

P/S

P/

10

10

10

10

10

10


- Comverse Technology Inc.
Thompson Watch, 19 2003 .

P/E

P/BV

Panamsat Corp.

21.45

0.73

Acterna Corp.

-0.01

-0.01

American Tower Corp.

-6.87

1.39

ECH Holding Ltd.

13.08

1.02

GN Store Nord

-1.58

1.5

Daimei Telecom Engineering


Corp.

22.01

0.75

ZTE Corp.

20.05

2.94

9.85

1.05

Black Box Corp.

20.53

1.84

10.95

1.25

Marubeni Telecom Copany Ltd.

Comverse Technology Inc.



? ?
?

?

?
-
?

?

?

?
?

. 30

,
, , -

(intrinsic)

.

,
:

100% ?

()

(,

(EV)
EV = + D - Cash = (MC + D) - Cash = MC + (D - Cash) = MV + Net Debt,
D ,
Cash ,
ND .

( )

(excess cash),
,
,
, (
)

( )
,

? ()


(EV)
, -

:
PA EVA EV P ( . 51 )

100% EBITDA :
MC = (EV/EBITDAA) EBITDA - ND

100% ?

()
100%

P/E/g,


( . 43 )

, ,
, .

?
?


( ?)

, 100%
,

, ,
.
, , ,

:

?

?
? ()
1.

2.


1998-2003 .

(>50%)

(10-50%)

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

40.7%

43.5%

49.1%

58.0%

59.8%

63.0%

39.5%

33.0%

53.8%

35.2%

39.2%

21.1%

: Mergerstat
P/E

1998-2003 .

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

19.7
19.8
19.4
21.7
25.0
24.0
21.7
18.0
16.7
19.7
21.2

22.0
22.0
15.5
17.5
17.0
16.0
18.4
16.0
15.3
16.6
19.4

: Mergerstat

-12%
-11%
20%
19%
32%
33%
15%
11%
8%
16%
8%

() ?

,
,
, , :

(replacement

cost)


, , ,
(buy vs. build approach)

P/BV

EV/

/E

EV/

(
)

,
, :

,
.


: ,
,
.

: P/S
EV/S , P/S. /S:

/S:

, :
E = S E/S, P/S = (P/E) x (E/S),
E/S

P/S P/E:

P/S
= E/S
P/E

P / BV
= ROE
P/E

: P/
/ , /S:

.
P .. P/(adjusted E)
(normalized) (maintainable)

/ .
/?

P/E:
?

: EV/EBITDA
EBITDA ,

, EBITDA


:
15%

EBITDA

NB:

3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0

353
412
471
529
588
647
706
765
824

53
62
71
79
88
97
106
115
124


20%
25%
30%
35%
375
75
400
100
429
129
462
162
438
88
467
117
500
150
538
188
500
100
533
133
571
171
615
215
563
113
600
150
643
193
692
242
625
125
667
167
714
214
769
269
688
138
733
183
786
236
846
296
750
150
800
200
857
257
923
323
813
163
867
217
929
279
1,000
350
875
175
933
233
1,000
300
1,077
377

40%
500
583
667
750
833
917
1,000
1,083
1,167

. , EBITDA 100 . .
,

200
233
267
300
333
367
400
433
467

P/Sales margin

EV/Sales margin

EV/Operating margin:

EV/EBIT

EV/EBIT(1-t) EV/NOPLAT (
; NOPLAT goodwill)

EV/EBIAT EV/NOPAT (
)

, ,

P/Cash earnings (P/CE):

CE E (
)

EV/Free operating cash flow (EV/FOCF)

FOCF E

EV/Free cash flow to the firm (EV/FCFF)

FCFF FOCF ,
( vs. )

FCFF

, ()

P/Free cash flow to equity (P/FCFE)

FCFE ,

, FCFE ,

P/DIV

,
:

EV/BV EV/BVA

P/BV P/BVE

EV/PP&E

P/NAV

NB: EV/BV !
BV=BVE+BVD-Cash!
:

/BV ,

,
P/NAV

AFI Development


IPO/SPO*

04.08.2008
.

2,0

0,6

2007

IPO/SPO*

1,6

1,7

2007

PIK

1,3

0,9

2007

0,3

2006

0,5

2006

0,4

2006

1,1

2007


Mirland
Development
RGI International
LSR

1,6
1,2
2,1
1,7

* SPO, , , IPO 2004

. 97

EV/Capacity

EV/

EV/Production

EV/
(,
)

(-,
,
)

(, ); ,

(-,
)

()

( )


P/E:

12 (.. trailing)

3-5 ( )

()
:

,
( Pt/E(t+n))

(P/E)/g

, ,
( MC0+NDt)

, ,
: (
MCt+NDt)


, :

( )

( ; )

(corporate governance)

(, ,
, , )


P/E,

r = r f + ( rm r f ) + rc

rc

1 b
P/E =
rg


:
P/E

(rf)

(rm-rf)
(g)

/


8%
3%
5%
3%
50%
7.1


16%
8%
7%
3%
50%
4.2

: Damodaran


P/E 2007 .

()
Shanghai Comp
Straits Times
Sensex
RTS
TWSE
Kuala Lumpur
Hang Seng
Bovespa
Kospi
FTSE/JSE Top 40
S&P/ASX 200
IBEX 35
Mexican Bolsa
FTSE 100
S&P/TSX
Swiss Maket
S&P 500
OMS 30
DAX
CAC-40
Nikkei 225
MIB 30

/E
45,5
12,7
27,6
13,4
19,0
15,6
18,0
14,9
15,0
12,7
15,2
12,3
15,8
12,3
19,0
13,9
18,4
11,8
13,5
13,4
29,3
14,2


11,5%
8,9%
8,9%
7,8%
6,9%
6,7%
6,2%
5,4%
5,2%
5,1%
4,3%
3,8%
3,7%
3,2%
2,9%
2,8%
2,8%
2,6%
2,5%
2,1%
1,9%
1,9%

. 151


P/E
1998-2003 .

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

17.2

30.9

18.6

7.8

33.4

20.9

P/E
2003 .

31.0

47.8

38.2

20.9

31.7

14.8

24.8

22.8

22.3

22.1

24.5

23.8

23.6

24.4

24.3

21.8

21.8

22.1

20.1

25.3

36.5

18.9

27.9

17.2

10.0

22.8

21.0

14.7

13.6

17.4

22.4

24.4

17.2

26

19.4

25.0

17.9

21.1

13.7

13.6

11.6

26.1

28.1

23.3

23.9

21.7

16.0

26.7

22.8

20.8

18.2

22.8

12.8

13.2

25.1

24.3

23.8

21.6

22.9

23.5

10

15

20

25

30

: Mergerstat

: Mergerstat

2003 .

P/E

, ,

,
,

(Dow Jones,
S&P500, NIKKEI, PTC, S&P ..)

/E (relative, adjusted P/E)

/ t1 // t1 = / t2 // t2
:
/ t2 = / t1 (/ t1 // t2)

,

:


( ?)

:
,

,
-
, 19261994 .

:

EV

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10


*, %
, .
.
14 200
6,31
3 500
8,39
1 800
9,13
1 170
9,74
730
10,80
480
10,75
290
11,22
190
12,14
100
13,13
40
17,28

: Ibbotson Associates


C :

(: ,
- , . 168 )

(, /S=+(E/S) /BV=+ROE )


P=E/(r-g)

, .
DCF.

P/S

100.0%
/ (E/S), %

90.0%
80.0%



($1,180 .)

70.0%



($1,987 .)

60.0%
50.0%

40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

/ (P/S )

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

P/BV,
/S

ROE, E/S

( )

P/E

P/E

P/E

P/BV

P/BV

P/BV

P/S

P/S

P/S

()
P/E, DIV/P, Q /

P/E 14, Q 0,78,


DIV/P=4%.

1929-1932 :

P/E 1881-1929 . 15,3, 1929 .


31,6, 1932 . 10,2 ( 1880 ); Q
1932 0,3.

P/E Q

1921

1949

1982

P/E

7,4

5,8

7,8

0,28

0,29

0,27

, 1987 : P/E = 80, P/BV=6

1999 : P/E S&P = 28 ( 1929 . 20)

()
/E
1980-2000

: [Shiller 200, p. 5]

()
/E 1881-2001

: [Shiller 200, p. 5]

()
P/E 1998

P/E

P/E

1997

20,0

1999

-6,0

1997

28,6

1998

16,5

1997

38,7

1998

7,2

1994

54,9

1998

5,8

1997

16,2

1998

4,0

1997

1998

5,4

1997

59,5

1998

: [Collyns, Senhadj 2003]

()
19552000


:
60% 1990
120% 1996
(

)

: [Hobjin,
Jovanovich 2000]

()
Q 19002009 .

: [Mihaljevic 2010]

()
DJIA 19002008

: http://observationsnotes.blogspot.com

()
(total present value)

: [Sigel 2003 ]


P/E 15, P/BV 1,5 P/EP/BV 22,5

:
P/E
(DIV/P+g)/(P/E): 0,7,
3

5
7
10
15

(DIV/V+g)/(/E)
0,7
2
7,1
2,5
10,0
3,5
14,3
5,0
21,4
7,5

3
1,7
2,3
3,3
5,0


.

100 . 155,7,
99, 30,
5,9. 5
- : 40-50%
,
.
,
.
, , 1 2008 ,

Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd

Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd

, .

NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE
NYSE

, . ,
. .
.
1,417,800
7,915
110,352
20,101
76,195
10,803

77,400
278
9,826
367
1,353
1,213

,
. .

32.64
1.50
24.40
3.20
2.74

, .
.
908,800
7,082
47,997
4,666
111,334
10,641

2,300,000
4,490
255,320
65,420
58,840

, .
.
267,100
1,294
26,678
4,100
15,120
3,091

,
. .
275,700
3,653
358
20
48,274

,
. .
411,200
2,400
38,157
2,495
53,002
8,815

, .
.
45,200
265
17,196
1,949
5,062
1,579

:
/

69.2
83,956

4.9
51,711

8.9
78,642


25,0%
25,0%
25,0%
,
, . .
, %
, %
, %
, . .

25,0%
58 884
57,372
99,99%
20%
33%
45,979



, . .

/
2.0
21,225

:
?

Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd

P/S
1.62
0.57
2.31
3.25
0.77
1.71
1.57
1.97

P/E
29.72
16.15
25.98
178.26
43.49
58.72
33.06
69.21

P/BVA
2.53
0.63
5.32
14.02
0.53
4.61
2.83
4.86

P/BVE
5.59
1.87
6.69
26.22
1.11
8.30
4.72
8.92

ROE
19%
12%
26%
15%
3%
14%
14%
13%

NI margin
5.5%
3.5%
8.9%
1.8%
1.8%
2.9%
4.7%
2.8%

, Jones Soda (
)

, ,

P/S P/BVA EV/S EV/BVA
Eldorado , ,
, . , P/E EV/BVA

:
?

EV/S

Cott Corp
Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc
Hansen Natural Corp
Jones Soda Co
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd

P/S

EV/S

18,430

19,761

EV/BVA
1.82
1.03
2.32
3.26
1.41
1.96
1.85

2.83
1.15
5.33
14.02
0.96
4.86
3.10


EV/BVA
P/BVA
49,020
50,247

:
?

Cott Corp


. ,
,
.

Eldorado Artesian Springs Inc


. .

Hansen Natural Corp

, ,
, , ,

Jones Soda Co

.
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd

,
.


. ,
,

C , Eldorado
... ?

:
?

" "


, . .

2.0

69.2

4.9

8.9

21,225

83,956

51,711

78,642

0.57

16.15

0.63

1.87

6,128

19,591

6,746

5,783


, . .

(5.8-6.7 . .)
7
P/E ,
Eldorado. ?

(US$)

(US$)

100

1150

1150

(%)

2005

Dubai Ports
International
(DPI)

2003

APM
Terminals

Quingdao
Qianwan
Container
Terminal

20

60

2003

Cosco Pacific

Shanghai Pudong
International
Terminals

20

2003

Cosco Pacific

Quingdao
Qianwan Terminal

2003

Cosco Pacific

2003

2003

CSX Corporation

(. TEU)


TEU
(US$)

1,400

821

300

P&O Ports

1,850

162

45.8

229

2,300

100

20

14.8

74

600

123

Yantian
International
Container
Terminal, Phase III

4.45

16.7

375.3

2,400

156

P&O Ports

Mundra Container
Terminal

100

195

195

P&O Ports
Adani Group ,

1,300

150

P&O Ports

Casco / Canadian
Stevedoring

100

75

75

300

250

: ()

(%)

(US$)

(US$)

(. TEU)

2003

P&O Ports /
CMA CGM

Egis Ports

80

56.7

70.86

P&O
Ports (50%) CMA CGM (50%)

2003

SSA Marine

TMM Ports &


Terminals

51

120

245

,
Manzanillo
( 0.9 TEU 2005.), -
-

2002

Malaysia
Mining
Corporation

Port of Tanjung
Pelepas

50.1

424

848

2002

Hutchison
Port
Holdings

HMM Korean
Terminals

100

215

2001

Hutchison
Port
Holdings

ICTSI International
Port Holdings

100

2001

PSA
Corporation

Hesse Noord Natie

2000

Eurokai
(Contship
Italia)

2000

Hutchison
Port
Holdings


TEU
(US$)

1,100

64

500

240

2,050

414

215

Hyundai Busan
Container, Hyundai Gamman Container Hyundai
Kwangyang Container

1,950

110

400

400

,
, , ,
, ,
Tanzania International Container Terminal

1,500

267

70

420

600

70% .
22 , 6
Antwerp/Zeebrugge

3,700

162

Terminal Darsena
Toscana

50

18



CLP

300

60

Westport, Klang

30

105

480


Biobest

820

589

: ()

2000

Hutchison
Port
Holdings

2000

(%)

(US$)

(US$)

(. TEU)

Koja Container
Terminal

49

147

300

,
Humpuss Group

TCB/3i

TCB

100

198

198

1999

Eurokai

Contship Italia

66

135

1999

P&O Ports

ITO

95

1999

P&O Ports

Tanjung Perak

1999

Urbaser/Dra
gados

1999

1999


TEU
(US$)

394

761

1,850

107

205


Contship Italia,
Medcenter Container Terminal
60%
La Spezia

3,150

65

82

87

-
17

1,250

70

49

174

355

732

485

Maritima Valencia

100

134

134

825

162

Hutchison
Port
Holdings

ECT

50

357

714

4,700

152

Hutchison
Port
Holdings

JICT

51

229

470

1,420

331

- 252 USD/TEU
- 87%

:
:



( , ,
)

, ,
,

(%)

(US$)

(US$)

(. TEU)


TEU
(US$)

2003

APM
Terminals

Quingdao
Qianwan
Container
Terminal

20

60

300

P&O Ports

1,850

162

2003

Cosco Pacific

Shanghai Pudong
International
Terminals

20

45.8

229

2,300

100

2003

Cosco Pacific

Quingdao
Qianwan Terminal

20

14.8

74

600

123

2003

Cosco Pacific

Yantian
International
Container
Terminal, Phase III

4.45

16.7

375.3

2,400

156

2003

P&O Ports

Mundra Container
Terminal

100

195

195

P&O Ports
Adani Group ,

1,300

150

2003

P&O Ports /
CMA CGM

Egis Ports

80

56.7

70.86

P&O
Ports (50%) CMA CGM (50%)

1,100

64

2002

Hutchison
Port Holdings

HMM Korean
Terminals

100

215

215

Hyundai Busan
Container, Hyundai Gamman Container Hyundai
Kwangyang Container

1,950

110

2001

Hutchison
Port Holdings

ICTSI International
Port Holdings

100

400

400

,
, , ,
, ,
Tanzania International Container Terminal

1,500

267

:
()

(
)

2000

Eurokai
(Contship
Italia)

2000
1999

(%)

(US$)

(US$)

Terminal Darsena
Toscana

50

18

TCB/3i

TCB

100

198

198

Hutchison
Port Holdings

JICT

51

229

470

**
(. TEU)



CLP

- 22 11
252 148 USD/TEU
87% 56%


TEU
(US$)

300

60

1,850

107

1,420

331

:
156 USD/TEU
104 USD/TEU

:
135 USD/TEU
29 USD/TEU


, ,
.

: vs.

:
175 USD/TEU
81 USD/TEU

:
77 USD/TEU
26 USD/TEU


56% 47% 34%

:
:

252 77 USD/TEU

( 87% 34%)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

()
P0/E0 vs. P0/E0+n

FCF 0, .
g 1-5
g 6+
DCF, .
P/FCF1
P/FCF6


1
5%
5%
6.67
6.67


1
20%
5%
9.86
5.56

5.22

13.00

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

. 20%

P0/E0

P0/E0+n

[0,n]

P0/E0+n

t
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P1/E1

PA/P=40/5=8

P1/E4

PA/P=40/20=2

DCF

PA/P=3

P0/Et
-

,

:

P0/Et

g ROE b
ROE
4%
6%
8%
10%
15%
20%

(b), %
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0%
2%
3%
5%
6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
0%
4%
8%
11%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%

. g=ROEb
1 (1), .
1 (1), .
(ROE), %
(b), %
5 (5), .
5 (5), .
:
P1/E1
P1/E5
P5/E5


12
12
100
100
12%
12%
20%
80%
13.2
17.3
110.0
144.3

. ,
r=ROE

8.3
7.6
8.3

8.3
5.8
8.3

()
(P/E)/g

P = E/(r - g), r = E/P +g

rA, rA=r

, (/)/g =
(/)/g

P = PA
FCF 0, .
r
g 1+
DCF, .
P/E/g, .

E g

EA g A

1
1
20%
5%
6.67

2
1
20%
10%
10.00
2

(P/E)/g
!

(P/E)/g ,