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1he Chlnese unlverslLy of Pong


kong1ung Wah Croup of Lhe PosplLals
CommunlLy College

CuanLlLaLlve MeLhods Croup ro[ecL

1oplc Should Pong kong bld Lo hosL Lhe
2023 Aslan Cames?

Croup LlsL
Cheung Wlng ?lu 10012299
Chung Pel Man 10012410
Lau 1se Chlng 10046379
Leung Slng lu 10023089


2
1 Introduct|on
As Pong kong fooLball Leam was raLed a brllllanL performance ln Pong kong
2009 LasL Aslan Cames lL ralses Lhe awareness of Pong kong resldenLs ln sporL
and glves a blg moLlvaLlon for us Lo be a hosL of huge sporL evenL agaln
8ecenLly Lhe Pong kong governmenL and resldenLs are Lalklng and dlscusslng
abouL wheLher Pong kong should bld Lo hosL Lhe 2023 Aslan Cames or noL
1o sLudy more abouL resldenLs' vlew Lhe Pong kong governmenL has
commlssloned Lhe Pong kong lnsLlLuLe of Aslaaclflc SLudles of Lhe Chlnese
unlverslLy of Pong kong Lo conducL a Lelephone survey Lo gauge publlc vlews
on Lhe sub[ecL And a LoLal of 1848 respondenLs were surveyed by 1 uecember
2010
lor Lhe flrsL parL of survey conducLed beLween 19 and 23 november 2010
443 of Lhe respondenLs favoured Lhe proposed bld and 308 were noL ln
favour of Lhe proposed bld Powever for Lhe laLLer parL of Lhe survey
conducLed beLween 26 november and 1 uecember 2010 Lhe number of
supporLlng respondenLs sllghLly overLook Lhe nonsupporLlve ones and Lhe
percenLage was 482 and 472 respecLlvely 1hls lndlcaLes LhaL LhaL had been
a rlslng number of respondenLs ln Lhe supporL of Lhe proposed bld Lowards Lhe
end of Lhe consulLaLlon perlod
3
Cverall speaklng havlng regard Lo Lhe argumenLs for and agalnsL Lhe
proposed bld and Lhe dlrecL LoLal cosL of $6 bllllon 463 of Lhe respondenLs
favoured Lhe proposed bld whlle 489 were noL ln favour of Lhe proposed bld
durlng Lhe whole survey perlod (Pome Affalrs 8ureau 2010 p8 Peadllne ually
2010 p28 AM 730 Medla LlmlLed 2010 p12)
ln Lhls reporL we are golng Lo LesL lf Lhe orlglnal clalm LhaL 463 of Lhe
respondenLs favoured Lhe proposed bld can be accepLed or noL Pence we
need Lo LesL wheLher Lhere were 463 of Pong kong resldenLs Lhlnklng LhaL
Pong kong should bld Lhe hosL of 2023 Aslan Cames or noL
f|c |nformft|on
1uet|onnf|re
ln order Lo do Lhe LesL of hypoLhesls a slmple survey was conducLed by
asklng one quesLlon only excepL Lhe personal lnformaLlon And Lhe quesLlon
ls Should Pong kong bld Lo hosL Lhe 2023 Aslan Cames?"
fmp||ng Method
lrom 7 Lo 16 uecember 2010 we had lnLervlewed 100 Pong kong
resldenLs who are above 18 years old (n100) uslng Lhe slmple random
sampllng meLhod we chose our lnLervlewee randomly
1o do Lhe survey we seL an onllne quesLlonnalre Lhrough Lhe my3qcom
4

We posLed and shared Lhe llnk of Lhe quesLlonnalre on my3qcom and
lacebook Also we held an evenL on lacebook and lnvlLed our frlends Lo do
Lhe shorL quesLlonnalre 1herefore Lhe maln lnLervlewees ln Lhls survey are
our famlly members frlends colleagues and classmaLes whlch composed Lhe
convenlence sample" ln Lhe lacebook evenL we had lnvlLed 743 people
and only 100 of Lhem gave us response and Lhese 100 respondenLs are our
sample ln Lhls pro[ecL
ln Lhe survey we [usL asked a yesno quesLlon Lo see wheLher Lhe
respondenLs wlll favour Lhe proposed bld on 2023 Aslan Cames or noL And
we collecLed lnLervlewees emall address opLlonally for our reference
23SLaLlsLlc CollecLlon
Accordlng Lo Lhe resulL of Lhe quesLlonnalre Lhere were 66 respondenLs
supporLlng Lhe proposed bld and 34 respondenLs were noL supporLlng Lhe
proposed bld






Should Pong kong bld Lo hosL Lhe 2023
Aslan Cames?
?es 66
no 34
llgure 1Wllllngness of supporLlng Lhe proposed bld
3

f|cu|ft|on
1o LesL Lhe orlglnal clalm abouL Lhe proposed bld we wlll conducL a LesL of
hypoLhesls abouL a populaLlon of proporLlon accordlng Lo Lhe daLa collecLed ln
Lhls pro[ecL and also Lhe naLure of our pro[ecL uslng Lhe one sample LesL of
hypoLhesls Lhe LesL sLaLlsLlc ls compuLed by

tep 1 tfte the nu|| hypothe| fnd the f|ternfte hypothe|


P0 ls Lhe null hypoLhesls and lL clalms LhaL Lhe
supporL raLe of Lhe proposed bld ls 463 and P1 ls Lhe
alLernaLe hypoLhesls LhaL means Lhe supporL raLe of
proposed bld ls noL 463 Moreover Lhls ls a LwoLalled
LesL accordlng Lo Lhe alLernaLe hypoLhesls lor exLra daLa
Lhe sample slze (n) of Lhls LesL ls 100 and Lhe sample
proporLlon equals 66/100066 as 66 respondenLs favoured
Lhe proposed klL
tep e|ect the |eve| of |gn|f|cfnce
llgure 2 le charL of Lhe correspondlng resulL


6
lor Lhe slgnlflcance level () LhaL allows Lo re[ecL a Lrue null hypoLhesls we
seL 003 as Lhe level of slgnlflcance ln Lhls LesL
tep e|ect the tet tft|t|c
We use zdlsLrlbuLlon slnce Lhe assumpLlons are meL and boLh n6 and n (1 6)
are aL leasL 3 lor lnsLance n6 100 x 0463 463 3 and
n (1 6) 100 x (10463) 337 3
tep 4 Iormu|fte the dec||on ru|e
8e[ecL P0 lf |Z| Z-/2 Lhen re[ecL P0 lf |Z| Z003/2 196 Pence re[ecL P0 lf Z
Z003/2 196 and re[ecL P0 lf Z Z003/2 196

tep S Mfe f dec||on fnd |nterpret the reu|t




9S088
7

Slnce Lhe compuLed zvalue from Lhe sample ls 3930832228 whlch ls much
greaLer Lhan Lhe crlLlcal zvalue (Z003/2 196) we re[ecL P0 and accepL P1
1herefore Lhe orlglnal clalm LhaL 463 of Lhe respondenLs favoured Lhe
proposed bld cannoL be accepLed
ln addlLlon Lhe pvalue ln Lhls case ls (Z393) whlch ls nearly equal Lo zero
1herefore Lhere ls nearly zero chance LhaL P0 ls Lrue
4 |cu|on
AfLer Lhe one sample LesL of hypoLhesls we can conclude LhaL Lhere were
noL 463 of Pong kong resldenLs supporLlng Lhe proposed bld And we cannoL
LrusL Lhe orlglnal clalm abouL 463 of respondenLs Lhlnk LhaL Pong kong
should bld Lo hosL 2023 Aslan Cames
Powever Lhe resulL does noL glve us sufflclenL evldence Lo say LhaL Lhe
alLernaLlve hypoLhesls ls Lrue lL only suggesLs LhaL Lhe alLernaLlve hypoLhesls
may be Lrue when we re[ecL Lhe null hypoLhesls
ln addlLlon we cannoL conclude LhaL Lhere are more or less Pong kong
resldenLs who wlll supporL Lhe proposed bld 8uL we may guess LhaL Lhe reason
why Lhe supporL raLe ln Lhe laLLer survey ls hlgher Lhan Lhe flrsL one ls malnly
due Lo Lhe lower budgeL of 2023 Aslan Cames from $143 bllllon Lo $6 bllllon
8
As Lhere are some llmlLaLlon or dlfferences beLween our survey and Lhe
survey conducLed by Pong kong lnsLlLuLe of Aslaaclflc SLudles of Lhe Chlnese
unlverslLy of Pong kong our resulL cannoL really reflecL or LesL wheLher Lhe
orlglnal clalm ls Lrue or noL lor lnsLance for convenlence reason we dld noL
glve an opLlon no ldea" for our lnLervlewees Lo choose ln our quesLlon We
[usL provlded a yesno quesLlon 8uL ln Lhe survey of Pong kong lnsLlLuLe of
Aslaaclflc SLudles of CuPk Lhey leL respondenLs a Lhlrd cholce Pence lL wlll
cause some daLa collecLlng error whlch wlll affecL Lhe resulL
Moreover as our sources of lnLervlewees are malnly from our dally llfe such
as famlly members frlends colleagues and classmaLes lL ls noL random enough
for a falr survey and cause sampllng error ln Lhe LesL of hypoLhesls LasL buL noL
Lhe leasL our LargeL lnLervlewees are Loo narrow and lL ls noL represenLaLlve
whlch cannoL represenL all Pong kong resldenLs
S onc|u|on
1o conclude Lhe survey conducLed showed LhaL we do noL accepL Lhe
orlglnal clalm abouL 463 of Pong kong 8esldenLs favoured Lhe proposed bld
of 2023 Aslan Cames


9
eference
LeglslaLlve Councll anel on Pome Affalrs Pong kongs oLenLlal 8ld for PosLlng
Lhe Aslan Cames ln 2023 llndlngs of Lhe ubllc ConsulLaLlon Lxerclse (2010)
8eLrleved uecember 16 2010 from PkSA8 Pome Affalrs 8ureau Web slLe
hLLp//wwwlegcogovhk/yr1011/engllsh/panels/ha/papers/ha1210cb24637
epdf
=_g,[ [,j[ (2010 uecember 7) neoJlloe uolly
p28
[=_$,j (2010 uecember 7) , 7J0
,eJlo llmlteJ p12
Append|x
1Lxfmp|e of uet|onnf|re


10
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