G ARIN H ART Y ANG 1724 Connecticut Aven ue, N.W.

Washington, DC 20009
T el: (202) 234- 5570
RESEARCH GROUP Fax: (202) 232-8134

MEMORANDUM
TO: Friends of Bruce Lunsford
FROM: Frederick Yang
DATE: October 30, 2008
RE: Results of This Week’s Tracking Poll

T he findings of our most recent survey, conducted earlier this week among
502 likely voters, show that Senator McConnell continues to be highly
vulnerable to defeat next Tuesday, with McConnell below the important 50%
mark on key measurements.

The trial heat standings show McConnell ahead by 47% to 45%,

which is well within the survey’s r4.5% margin of error. The findings
of every survey we have conducted over the past month show Senator
McConnell below the magic 50% mark, and even the latest Courier-Journal
survey has McConnell at 47%. For an incumbent, especially one with Mitch
McConnell’s long tenure, to not garner 50%+ with five days remaining should
be troubling to his campaign.

Two other important survey results suggest that Senator McConnell’s

foundation is below the 50% mark.
„ Just 43% of Kentuckians say they feel positive toward Mitch McConnell,
and fully 38% feel negative toward him.
„ More important, just 44% of voters give the Senator a positive job rating
of excellent and good, while a 51% majority give McConnell a negative
job rating.

Our survey findings suggest that this Senate race is headed for a photo finish
between McConnell and Lunsford, with many variables that could determine
the victory. One variable that might work in the challenger’s favor is
that our survey most likely undersampled African-American voters at
6%; the 2004 exit poll for Kentucky showed an 8% African-American
proportion, and it is NOT unreasonable to assume that African-
American turnout on November fourth could be HIGHER than 8% due
to Barack Obama’s candidacy.

This memorandum is based on a representative statewide survey of 502

likely Kentucky voters conducted on October 26 and 27, 2008. This survey
has a margin of error of r4.5%.

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