;
;
( ).
, .
1- ,
,
:
?
?
?
?
?
22
,
:
?
?
?
Net Present Value (NPV)
Payback Period (PB)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Profitability Index (PI)
Real Option Valuation (ROV)
N tP
Net
Presentt V
Value
l (NPV)
$10 000 000
?
9
,
9
(
(
,
)
;
;
NPV
.
Net Present Value (NPV)
CFt
NPV =
t
(
1
+
r
)
t =0
PV CF ;
;
Inv 0
r ;
N .
:
(NPV)
>0
=0
<0
7000
7 000
4000
5 000
4 000
4 000
1000
10 000
10000
NPV = PVCashInflow
PVCashOutflo
C hI fl
C hO tfl w =
= 15910 10000 = 5910
NPV
,
.
F
r
;
NPV
Payback Period (PB):
,
.
:
-1000
-1000
500
-500
500
400
-100
300
200
10
300
100
PB = 2 +
=21
3
300
:
(PB)
<
>
(PB):
($)
($)
-3000
-3000
3000
1500
1500
6000
PB = 1
PB = 2
NPV = - 273 $
NPV = + 4111 $
= 10%
:
.
,
.
Discounted Payback Period (DPB)
,
?
X
CF ($)
DCF ($)
DCF ($)
CF ($)
DCF ($)
DCF ($)
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
500
455
-545
100
91
-909
400
331
-214
300
248
-661
300
225
11
400
301
-360
100
68
79
600
410
50
214
DPB X = 2 +
= 2 .95
225
360
DPB Y = 3 +
= 3.88
410
NPV
= 78 . 82 $
NPV Y = 49 . 18 $
Di
Discounted
t d Payback
P b k Period
P i d (DPB)
,
:
;
:
.
,
,
.
I t
Internal
l Rate
R t off Return
R t
(IRR)
,
.
n
CFt
NPV =
=0
t
t = 0 (1 + IRR )
IRR ,
.
-4000
2000
4000
2000
4000
NPV = 4000 +
+
=0
2
(1 + IRR ) (1 + IRR )
IRR = 28%
IRR:
TCF
CF
CF
1
CF
()
F
CF
2
CF
CF PVIFAirr ,n = CF0
()
CF0
= PVIFAirr ,n
CF
EXCEL
CF
:
(IRR)
> WACC
= WACC
> WACC
NPV IRR:
NPV
2000
1000
28%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WACC
-1000
-2000
IRR
,
,
,
CF
-
IRR
IRR>WACC
WACC
IRR
1: IRR NPV
NPV
400
Y
X
300
CF ($)
CF ($)
-1000
1000
-1000
1000
500
100
400
300
300
400
100
600
WACC=7.2%
WACC
7.2%
200
IRRY=11.8%
=11 8%
100
IRRX=14.5%
10
15
- 100
20
25
WACC
NPV
= 78 . 82 $
NPV
= 49 . 18 $
IRR
IRR
= 14 . 5 %
= 11 . 8 %
WACC = 10%
: (1) ; (2) .
IRR
2:
NPV
IRR1
IRR2
WACC
IRR ,
.
NPV
3: IRR
35 000
10 000
- 30 000
CF ($)
+ 10000
- 30000
+ 35000
15
WACC
Profitability Index (PI)
n
CashInflow t
t
(
1 + r)
t =0
PI = n
CashOutfow
f t
t
(1 + r )
t =0
- 100
- 10 000
200
15 000
PI
1.82
1.36
NPV
82
3636
= 10%
PI > 1 ;
PI < 1 ;
PI = 1
:
NPV:
;
;
;
,
.
?
, ;
;
((sunk costs)) ;;
(side effects);
;
(opportunity costs);
;
;
.
TCF
CF
CF
CF
CF
= AC
(Acquisition cost)
CF n
+ NWC
(net
working capital)
: CF
TCF
CF
1
CF
CFn = ( S + E D
S sales -
E expenses -
D depreciation
T tax rate
CF
CF
2
CF n
)(1 T ) + D
9
9
: CF
TCF
CF
1
CF
CFn = ( S E D
S sales -
E expenses -
D depreciation
T tax rate
CF
CF
2
CF n
)(1 T ) + D
9
9
: TCF
TCF
CF
CF
NWC
CF
2
CF n
TCF = RV + NWC E
RV residual value
NWC -
E expense ,
9
9
USD
28 000
3 500
5 500
5 500
8 000
7 000
33 000
54 000
83 000
71 000
45 000
17 000
29 000
48 000
44 000
29 000
.
7 .
$13 000.
20%
10%
:
:
0
35 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
3 500
5 500
5 500
8 000
7 000
20%
- 35 000
13 000
600
0
-3 500
-2 000
- 2 500
1 000
7 000
-38 500
-2 000
-2 500
1 000
19 400
:
:
1
33 000
2
54 000
3
83 000
4
71 000
5
45 000
17 000
29 000
48 000
44 000
29 000
EBITDA
16 000
25 000
35 000
27 000
16 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
EBIT
11 000
20 000
30 000
22 000
11 000
20%
2 200
4 000
6 000
4 400
2 200
8 800
16 000
24 000
17 600
8 800
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
5 000
13 800
21 000
29 000
22 600
13 800
NPV
:
13 800
21 000
29 000
22 600
13 800
-38 500
-2 000
-2 500
1 000
19 400
(FCF)
-38 500
11 800
21 000
26 500
23 600
33 200
0,91
0,83
0,75
0,68
0,62
FCF
10 727
727,27
27
17 355
355,37
37
19 909
909,84
84
16 119
119,12
12
20 614
614,59
59
NPV
46 226
84 726,19
1.
;
2.
NPV =
C0
C1
C2
+
+
+ ...
0
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )
C
C
NPV =
+
+ ... = C K r
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
i ;
r ;
C ;
Kr
1. ,
;
2 NPV;
2.
3. , NPV .
3