Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 37

..

;
;


( ).
, .


1- ,


,
:

?

?
?
?

?


22

,
:

?


?
?


Net Present Value (NPV)

Payback Period (PB)

Discounted Payback Period (DPB)


Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Profitability Index (PI)


Real Option Valuation (ROV)


N tP
Net
Presentt V
Value
l (NPV)
$10 000 000
?
9
,

9



(
(
,
)


;
;

NPV

.


Net Present Value (NPV)

NPV = PVCashInflow PVCashOutflow


NPV = PVCF Inv0
N

CFt
NPV =
t
(
1
+
r
)
t =0
PV CF ;

;
Inv 0
r ;
N .

:
(NPV)

>0

=0

<0

Net Present Value (NPV):

7000

7 000

4000

5 000
4 000

4 000

1000

10 000
10000

NPV = PVCashInflow
PVCashOutflo
C hI fl
C hO tfl w =
= 15910 10000 = 5910

NPV

,
.





F
r



;






NPV


Payback Period (PB):
,



.
:

-1000

-1000

500

-500
500

400

-100

300

200

10

300

100
PB = 2 +
=21
3
300

:
(PB)

<

>

(PB):

($)

($)

-3000

-3000

3000

1500

1500

6000

PB = 1
PB = 2
NPV = - 273 $
NPV = + 4111 $

= 10%

:
.
,
.


Discounted Payback Period (DPB)
,
?
X

CF ($)

DCF ($)

DCF ($)

CF ($)

DCF ($)

DCF ($)

-1000

-1000

-1000

-1000

-1000

-1000

500

455

-545

100

91

-909

400

331

-214

300

248

-661

300

225

11

400

301

-360

100

68

79

600

410

50

214
DPB X = 2 +
= 2 .95
225
360
DPB Y = 3 +
= 3.88

410

NPV

= 78 . 82 $

NPV Y = 49 . 18 $


Di
Discounted
t d Payback
P b k Period
P i d (DPB)

,
:
;
:
.

,
,

.


I t
Internal
l Rate
R t off Return
R t
(IRR)
,
.
n

CFt
NPV =
=0
t
t = 0 (1 + IRR )
IRR ,
.

-4000

2000

4000

2000
4000
NPV = 4000 +
+
=0
2
(1 + IRR ) (1 + IRR )
IRR = 28%

IRR:

TCF
CF

CF
1

CF
()
F

CF
2

CF

CF PVIFAirr ,n = CF0


()

CF0
= PVIFAirr ,n
CF

EXCEL

CF

:
(IRR)

> WACC

= WACC

> WACC

NPV IRR:
NPV
2000

1000

28%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WACC

-1000

-2000

WACC < 28% -

WACC > 28% -



IRR
,
,


,

CF
-

IRR
IRR>WACC
WACC

IRR
1: IRR NPV

NPV
400

Y
X

300

CF ($)

CF ($)

-1000
1000

-1000
1000

500

100

400

300

300

400

100

600

WACC=7.2%
WACC
7.2%

200
IRRY=11.8%
=11 8%
100
IRRX=14.5%

10

15

- 100

NPVY > NPV X

NPV X > NPVY

IRRY < IRR X

IRR X > IRRY

20

25

WACC

NPV

= 78 . 82 $

NPV

= 49 . 18 $

IRR

IRR

= 14 . 5 %
= 11 . 8 %

WACC = 10%

: (1) ; (2) .

IRR
2:
NPV

IRR1

IRR2

WACC
IRR ,
.
NPV

3: IRR
35 000

10 000

- 30 000

CF ($)

+ 10000

- 30000

+ 35000

15

WACC


Profitability Index (PI)
n

CashInflow t

t
(
1 + r)
t =0
PI = n
CashOutfow
f t

t
(1 + r )
t =0

- 100

- 10 000

200

15 000

PI

1.82

1.36

NPV

82

3636

= 10%

PI > 1 ;
PI < 1 ;
PI = 1

:

NPV:
;

;
;


,
.

?
, ;

;


((sunk costs)) ;;

(side effects);
;
(opportunity costs);

;
;
.

TCF
CF

CF

CF

CF

= AC


(Acquisition cost)

CF n

+ NWC

(net
working capital)


: CF
TCF
CF
1

CF

CFn = ( S + E D

S sales -
E expenses -
D depreciation

T tax rate

CF

CF
2

CF n

)(1 T ) + D
9
9


: CF
TCF
CF
1

CF

CFn = ( S E D

S sales -
E expenses -
D depreciation

T tax rate

CF

CF
2

CF n

)(1 T ) + D
9
9


: TCF
TCF
CF

CF

NWC

CF
2

CF n

TCF = RV + NWC E

RV residual value

NWC -
E expense ,

9
9


USD

28 000

3 500

5 500

5 500

8 000

7 000

33 000

54 000

83 000

71 000

45 000

17 000

29 000

48 000

44 000

29 000

.
7 .
$13 000.

20%
10%

:

:

0
35 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

35 000

30 000

25 000

20 000

15 000

10 000

3 500

5 500

5 500

8 000

7 000


20%

- 35 000
13 000
600
0
-3 500

-2 000

- 2 500

1 000

7 000

-38 500

-2 000

-2 500

1 000

19 400

: (13 000 10 000)*0,2 = 600

:

:

1
33 000

2
54 000

3
83 000

4
71 000

5
45 000

17 000

29 000

48 000

44 000

29 000

EBITDA

16 000

25 000

35 000

27 000

16 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

EBIT

11 000

20 000

30 000

22 000

11 000

20%

2 200

4 000

6 000

4 400

2 200

8 800

16 000

24 000

17 600

8 800

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

5 000

13 800

21 000

29 000

22 600

13 800

NPV
:

13 800

21 000

29 000

22 600

13 800

-38 500

-2 000

-2 500

1 000

19 400


(FCF)

-38 500

11 800

21 000

26 500

23 600

33 200

0,91

0,83

0,75

0,68

0,62

FCF

10 727
727,27
27

17 355
355,37
37

19 909
909,84
84

16 119
119,12
12

20 614
614,59
59

NPV

46 226

84 726,19


1.
;
2.

(Equivalent annual cost)


, ,
.

NPV =

C0
C1
C2
+
+
+ ...
0
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r )

C
C
NPV =
+
+ ... = C K r
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
i ;
r ;
C ;
Kr


1. ,
;
2 NPV;
2.
3. , NPV .
3

Оценить