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..

:
;
;

:
;

:
()
-
,

;
;

;

.

;
,

, ( );


(Face value, Par
value,
l
M
Maturity
t it value)
l )
(Coupon)
(Coupon rate)
(Yield to Maturity)

:
140
120
100
80

100

60
40
20

20

20

20

20

20

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

()

()

()


(DCF)


PV (CF1 )

CF1

CF2

CF3

CFn

3 n

CFn
PV (CF2 ) PV (CF3 ) PV (CFn ) =
(1 + r ) n

CF

C1
C2
Cn
N
P=
+
+ ... +
+
2
n
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r ) n
n

Cn
N
P=
+
t
n
(1 + r )
t =1 (1 + r )
P = PV (Coupons ) + PV ( N )
P ;
i ;
r , ;
N ;
n


DCF:
DCF

N
P=
n
(1 + r )
P ;
r , ;
N ;
n



(
( )
)

:
()
= 1000 USD
= 12%
= 15%
= 3
= 1
?

:
()

120
120
1120
P=
+
+
=
2
3
(1 + 0,15 ) (1 + 0,15 )
(1 + 0,15 )
3

120
1000
=
+
= 931,5
t
3
(1 + 0,15 )
t =1 (1 + 0 ,15 )

:
.

P=

mn

t =1

/m
N
+
t
mn
(1 + r / m )
(1 + r / m )

;
;
r , ;
n ;
m


()

= 1000 USD
= 15%
= 15%
= 3
= 1


, ?
, ?


()
(
)

13%

1047,22

14%

1023 22
1023,22

15%

1000

16%

977,54

17%

955,81

<

>


>


<

,,

P0
P
P1

r0

r1


=
P

r ;

:
(Yield
(Yi ld to
t Maturity
M t it (YTM))
,

Cn
C1
C2
N
P=
+
+ ... +
+
2
n
(1 + YTM) (1 + YTM)
(1 + YTM) (1 + YTM) n
Cn
N
P=
+
n
n
(
1
+
YTM
)
(
1
+
YTM
)
t =1
n

(YTM):

YTM op =

C+

(N P )

n
N + P
2




N ;

(Rate of Return (RR))

P1 P0 + C
RR =
P0
RR ;

;
;
1
0 ;


?
:
,

:
Div 1 + P1
P0 =
(1 + r )

Div 2 + P2
P1 =
(1 + r )

Div2 + P2 Div1 Div2 + P2


1
1
+
P0 =
( Div1 + P1 ) =
=
Div1 +
1+ r
1+ r
1+ r 1+ r
(1 + r ) 2
n
Divn + Pn
Divt
Pn
Div1
Div2
+
+ ..... +
=
+
P0 =
2
n
t
n
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r )
(
1
+
r
)
(
1
+
r
)
t =1

0 ;
Div1 ;
1
r

:
,

(P)

100

100,00

100

5,00

110

4,35

95,65

100

5,50

121

8,51

91,49

100

6 05
6,05

133 10
133,10

12 48
12,48

87 52
87,52

100

6,66

146,41

16,29

83,71

100

(n)

(Div)

..

10

11,79

259,37

35,89

64,11

100

20

30,58

672,75

58,89

41,11

100

50

533,59

11 739,09

89,17

10,83

100

100

62 639,15

1 378 061,23

98,83

1,17

100

10%
15%


PV 100
($)

50

50

10

20

- ;
- ;

50

100

P0 =

t =1

Div t
t
(1 + r )

0 ;
Div ;
r

:

Div
Div
+
P =
+ ...
2
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
Div
P =
r

;
Div ;
r

:
:

Div0 (1 + g ) Div0 (1 + g ) 2
Div0 (1 + r ) n
P=
+
+ ..... +
2
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r ) n
Div0 (1 + g ) Div1
P=
=
rg
rg

;
Div ;
r ;
g


Div1
r=
+g
P0

Div1
P0 =
rg

g = ROE
(1 )

Div 1
EPS 1
r ;
;
Div ;
g ;
EPS (earnings per share) ;
BV shares

EPS
BVshares

Total Shareholder Return

P1 P 0 + Div
TSR =
P0

P1 ;
0 ;
Div ,

Divt
Dn +1 1
P0 =
+

t
r g 1+ r
t =1 (1 + r )
n

0 ;
Divt t ;

;
Divn+1
r ;
g ,

:
()


= $2
= 15%
= 3
= 20%
= 5%
?

:
()
0

g=20%

Div

g=20%

$2,4

$2,88

g=20%

g=5%

$3,46

$3,63

$2,09
$2,18
P3 =

$2 28
$2,28
$23,86

Div 4
= 36 ,29
rg

r = 15%
3

Divt
3,63
1
P0 =
+

= 30,41
t
0,15 0,05 1 + 0,15
t =1 (1,15)
3

:

,

9
( )

Div1
Div 2
P0 =
+
+ ...
2
(1 + rp ) (1 + rp )

Div
Div
P0 =
=
t
rp
t =1 (1 + r p )

0
;
rp
;
Div
.



-

,
(free cash flows, FCF)

,



-

FCFEt

n
(
1
+
)
t =1
r
e

FCFFt

n
(
1
+
WACC
)
t =1

CFDebtt

n
(
1
+
)
t =1
r
n


Free Cash Flows to Firm, FCFF

Net Income

Depreciation, Amortization

(1-t)

Interest (1-t)

Working Capital


()

Capital Expenditures

FCFF



,
,

FCFF ,
(WACC)


Free Cash Flows to Equity, FCFE

Net Income

Depreciation, Amortization

Working Capital


()

Capital Expenditures

New Debt Issued

Debt Retired

FCFE



,
,

FCFE ,

(Cost of Equity)

FCFF FCFE:

CF

FCFF

*
(1-t)
(1
t)

CF

FCFE

VSGF

FCFE
=
re g s

VSGF

- ,

gs

FCF

- ,

()
:

Value
TV

FCF2
FCF3

FCF9

FCF1

FCF10 TCF

10

FCF (free cash flow)

FCF

11

12

TCF (terminal cash flow)

TCF

FCFt
TCF 1

V =
+

g
(
1
+
r
)
t =1
es
eh
1 + re h
n

V ;;
FCFt ;
TCF ;
reh

res ;
g

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