HEALTHCARE UTILIZATION FORECASTING

Ogan Gurel, MD
SG-2, LLC
February 20, 2002

THE CHANGE

Basic technology item (i) time progression Where:

X i ( t ) = gi (tSi , t ) • hi (t Ii , ri , t )
 0, t < t Si

g i (t Si , t ) = 1 2 , t = t Si
 1, t > t
 Si

1
hi (t I i , ri , t ) =
1 + e − ri ( t −t I i ) 2 
 

THE IMPACT

Summed over all DRGs (k’s) and all possible impacts (j’s)

 t  ∑ likj • X i ( t ) 
  t 
 pkjt + ∫  dt  • dt + d k ∫  q (t )dt• c (t )  • dt + d k skjt
i

Ykj (t ) = Ykj (to ) •  e 0  

0

 
 
Base population Economic (q) &
(& intrinsic) consumerism (c)
change change
Socio-cultural
change
Technology
change

Where:

k = set of all DRGs

j = set of all possible

impact categories (e.g.
discharges, days,
outpatient visits, physician
resource utilization, etc.)